politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three CON defences in the South West amongst tonight’s 7 by-el
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Yes it is odd. Perhaps it is the difference between a theoretical party identification with little thought (national poll) and actually going out to vote that includes really thinking about it with local campaigning and tactical voting.IanB2 said:The divergence between the pattern of actual votes in by-elections and the picture being painted by the national VI polls has never been greater. The last time I remember a pattern of local by-elections this good for the LibDems was thirty five years ago when the Lib/SDs were leading the Tories in the polls.
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Winning is always good. The received opinion here was that the LDs couldn't regain strength in the SW, and that UKIP are going to roll up in the North. We don't see much evidence of all that.TOPPING said:Plus ca change..
LDs have gone from being NOTA to then being one of the above, and now are back to NOTA as people judge that they don't pose enough of a threat actually to get into government.
It is not a good thing for the LDs.
The polls are down weighting LD voters still, as I recall. The past recall may well be all wrong once more.IanB2 said:The divergence between the pattern of actual votes in by-elections and the picture being painted by the national VI polls has never been greater. The last time I remember a pattern of local by-elections this good for the LibDems was thirty five years ago when the Lib/SDs were leading the Tories in the polls.
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Now, I thought it was PB received wisdom that the LD are toast in the West country...0
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Did anyone actually say that? Labour under Corbyn certainly weren't going to make any inroads.Monksfield said:Now, I thought it was PB received wisdom that the LD are toast in the West country...
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Morning all,foxinsoxuk said:
Winning is always good. The received opinion here was that the LDs couldn't regain strength in the SW, and that UKIP are going to roll up in the North. We don't see much evidence of all that.TOPPING said:Plus ca change..
LDs have gone from being NOTA to then being one of the above, and now are back to NOTA as people judge that they don't pose enough of a threat actually to get into government.
It is not a good thing for the LDs.
The polls are down weighting LD voters still, as I recall. The past recall may well be all wrong once more.IanB2 said:The divergence between the pattern of actual votes in by-elections and the picture being painted by the national VI polls has never been greater. The last time I remember a pattern of local by-elections this good for the LibDems was thirty five years ago when the Lib/SDs were leading the Tories in the polls.
A LibDem strategist (unnamed iirc) told a newspaper the other day that they were polling 2x the national IV figure in seats where they actually ever bothered.0 -
Surely they always do better in areas where they actually bother?rottenborough said:
Morning all,foxinsoxuk said:
Winning is always good. The received opinion here was that the LDs couldn't regain strength in the SW, and that UKIP are going to roll up in the North. We don't see much evidence of all that.TOPPING said:Plus ca change..
LDs have gone from being NOTA to then being one of the above, and now are back to NOTA as people judge that they don't pose enough of a threat actually to get into government.
It is not a good thing for the LDs.
The polls are down weighting LD voters still, as I recall. The past recall may well be all wrong once more.IanB2 said:The divergence between the pattern of actual votes in by-elections and the picture being painted by the national VI polls has never been greater. The last time I remember a pattern of local by-elections this good for the LibDems was thirty five years ago when the Lib/SDs were leading the Tories in the polls.
A LibDem strategist (unnamed iirc) told a newspaper the other day that they were polling 2x the national IV figure in seats where they actually ever bothered.0 -
Will we have GE leaders debates this time?JosiasJessop said:So a very good night for the Lib Dems, a terrible one for the Conservatives, and a poor one for Labour.
I'm amused that some on here are still loudly criticising Farron. It seems he's doing what is needed.
Imagine Clegg up against an exhausted and nervous May and hopeless Corbyn!0 -
Anyone got actual votes cast?logical_song said:Lib Dems gain all 3 Tory seats in the West Country, with percentage gains of 20%, 39% and 50%. Ind takes fourth Tory seat.
Labour down except in Blackburn and UKIP fails to make impression
Britain Elects @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
Bovey (Teignbridge) result:
LDEM: 43.9% (+20.3)
CON: 33.1% (-4.2)
IND: 8.9% (-1.5)
LAB: 5.4% (-7.4)
UKIP: 5.1% (+5.1)
IND: 3.6% (+3.6)
Britain Elects @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
Chudleigh (Teignbridge):
LDEM: 51.5% (+38.8)
CON: 35.6% (+2.8)
UKIP: 6.7% (+6.7)
LAB: 6.1% (-8.8)
Ind(s) and Grn didn't stand this time.
Blackdown (Taunton Deane) result:
LDEM: 71.2% (+49.9)
CON: 22.5% (-30.4)
IND: 6.3% (+6.3)
Other Ind and Grn didn't stand this time round.
Britain Elects @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
Moreton Hall (St Edmundsbury) result:
IND: 56.0% (+22.4)
CON: 21.7% (-22.1)
LDEM: 10.4% (+10.4)
LAB: 7.2% (-15.4)
UKIP: 4.8% (+4.8)
Britain Elects @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
Welshpool Llanerchyddol (Powys) result:
IND: 48.9% (+48.9)
LDEM: 32.1% (-17.7)
CON: 19.1% (+19.1)
Britain Elects @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
Leven, Kennoway & Largo (Fife) result:
SNP: 37.0% (-4.1)
LAB: 28.4% (-6.9)
CON: 18.5% (+11.7)
LDEM: 14.3% (+4.3)
GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)
Britain Elects @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Higher Croft (Blackburn) result:
LAB: 58.2% (+12.1)
UKIP: 25.0% (-8.3)
CON: 16.7% (-3.8)0 -
We're seeing a certain degree of tactical rewind I think. Where the LD were previously seen as the opposition, the anti-tory vote is coalescing back to them. Good, the Tories need to fear the electorate.Barnesian said:
Yes it is odd. Perhaps it is the difference between a theoretical party identification with little thought (national poll) and actually going out to vote that includes really thinking about it with local campaigning and tactical voting.IanB2 said:The divergence between the pattern of actual votes in by-elections and the picture being painted by the national VI polls has never been greater. The last time I remember a pattern of local by-elections this good for the LibDems was thirty five years ago when the Lib/SDs were leading the Tories in the polls.
Maybe it's dawned on some lefties that punishing them for the sins of the coalition was a slightly unwise strategy.
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After the Lib Dems 2015 "cruel and punishing night" they were. They’re now recovering.Monksfield said:Now, I thought it was PB received wisdom that the LD are toast in the West country...
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Possible - equally it may be largely down to lowish turnouts and local isssues. I recall prior to 2015 the LDs continued to do well in many local elections - and then got the dockside hooker treatment when it mattered.Barnesian said:
Yes it is odd. Perhaps it is the difference between a theoretical party identification with little thought (national poll) and actually going out to vote that includes really thinking about it with local campaigning and tactical voting.IanB2 said:The divergence between the pattern of actual votes in by-elections and the picture being painted by the national VI polls has never been greater. The last time I remember a pattern of local by-elections this good for the LibDems was thirty five years ago when the Lib/SDs were leading the Tories in the polls.
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I'm not sure that Farron would wish to imagine that scenario - do you know something in the wind?rottenborough said:
Will we have GE leaders debates this time?JosiasJessop said:So a very good night for the Lib Dems, a terrible one for the Conservatives, and a poor one for Labour.
I'm amused that some on here are still loudly criticising Farron. It seems he's doing what is needed.
Imagine Clegg up against an exhausted and nervous May and hopeless Corbyn!0 -
What odds will you offer me against the LDs leading in the polls in the next 12 months?IanB2 said:The divergence between the pattern of actual votes in by-elections and the picture being painted by the national VI polls has never been greater. The last time I remember a pattern of local by-elections this good for the LibDems was thirty five years ago when the Lib/SDs were leading the Tories in the polls.
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Currently they have no MPs there so it would seem to be correct.Monksfield said:Now, I thought it was PB received wisdom that the LD are toast in the West country...
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They've gone from being completely irrelevant to being a bit more relevant. That's a good thing for the Lib Dems.TOPPING said:Plus ca change..
LDs have gone from being NOTA to then being one of the above, and now are back to NOTA as people judge that they don't pose enough of a threat actually to get into government.
It is not a good thing for the LDs.0 -
No, just imagining. Farron seems to be doing ok as a campaigning type of leader, but I doubt he will look suitably PM at the leader debates.felix said:
I'm not sure that Farron would wish to imagine that scenario - do you know something in the wind?rottenborough said:
Will we have GE leaders debates this time?JosiasJessop said:So a very good night for the Lib Dems, a terrible one for the Conservatives, and a poor one for Labour.
I'm amused that some on here are still loudly criticising Farron. It seems he's doing what is needed.
Imagine Clegg up against an exhausted and nervous May and hopeless Corbyn!
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Given the levels of Fear and loathing within the Tory party at the moment, combined with a direct impact on some peoples' seats I think the constituency changes are likely dead in the water. I think May could even quietly shelve it at some point.rcs1000 said:@Topping
The LibDems first priority is to avoid wipe out as the array count is reduced from 650 to 600. A recovery in local by-elections is a necessary but not sufficient condition for this.
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Not necessarily. It was said of Michael Foot that he toured marginal seats, helping to turn them into Conservative strongholds.RobD said:
Surely they always do better in areas where they actually bother?rottenborough said:
Morning all,foxinsoxuk said:
Winning is always good. The received opinion here was that the LDs couldn't regain strength in the SW, and that UKIP are going to roll up in the North. We don't see much evidence of all that.TOPPING said:Plus ca change..
LDs have gone from being NOTA to then being one of the above, and now are back to NOTA as people judge that they don't pose enough of a threat actually to get into government.
It is not a good thing for the LDs.
The polls are down weighting LD voters still, as I recall. The past recall may well be all wrong once more.IanB2 said:The divergence between the pattern of actual votes in by-elections and the picture being painted by the national VI polls has never been greater. The last time I remember a pattern of local by-elections this good for the LibDems was thirty five years ago when the Lib/SDs were leading the Tories in the polls.
A LibDem strategist (unnamed iirc) told a newspaper the other day that they were polling 2x the national IV figure in seats where they actually ever bothered.
A visit to Sunderland by Corbyn might bring the North East into play.*
So if Farron's efforts are being rewarded that's not a negligible achievement even if he doesn't have national name recognition.
*That's a joke, BTW.0 -
Sorry Rob, we've had numerous comments to the effect that whilst the LDs may come back in a few seats with special characteristics, they were likely finished down west. This shows it's not that simple.RobD said:
Did anyone actually say that? Labour under Corbyn certainly weren't going to make any inroads.Monksfield said:Now, I thought it was PB received wisdom that the LD are toast in the West country...
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@felix
The early years of the coalition showed the LibDems losing council seats. The later years saw the LibDems poll OK. But what's truly remarkable, if you look through the threads from 2014 and early 2015, was how often the LibDems didn't even stand in local by-elections. It was clear evidence of a party in full on retreat.
Early this year I predicted 12-14% at the next general election for the LibDems, and 10 to 14 seats (based on a 600 seat parliament). I see no reason to change my forecast.0 -
Who were these people thinking would replace them? Or were they just thinking it would be a Tory hegemony down there?Monksfield said:
Sorry Rob, we've had numerous comments to the effect that whilst the LDs may come back in a few seats with special characteristics, they were likely finished down west. This shows it's not that simple.RobD said:
Did anyone actually say that? Labour under Corbyn certainly weren't going to make any inroads.Monksfield said:Now, I thought it was PB received wisdom that the LD are toast in the West country...
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It's not hard to imagine however that he would look far more formidable than a bumbling old weirdo who is so stupid that he doesn't even know his own policy positions without asking.rottenborough said:
No, just imagining. Farron seems to be doing ok as a campaigning type of leader, but I doubt he will look suitably PM at the leader debates.felix said:
I'm not sure that Farron would wish to imagine that scenario - do you know something in the wind?rottenborough said:
Will we have GE leaders debates this time?JosiasJessop said:So a very good night for the Lib Dems, a terrible one for the Conservatives, and a poor one for Labour.
I'm amused that some on here are still loudly criticising Farron. It seems he's doing what is needed.
Imagine Clegg up against an exhausted and nervous May and hopeless Corbyn!
You don't need to look like Benjamin Disraeli if your opponent is the latter day Marquis of Granby. Just looking sane and normal would be enough. Heck, in certain circumstances even that's not necessary - just look at Trump.0 -
I see it was a terrrrrible night for the Conservatives.0
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I think that is possible but much depends on how Brexit goes and I'm unconvinced that Farron's stance on this and on other matters will be effective in a GE campaign where the fears of an SNP backed anti-Tory coalition might well focus voters' minds as it did last year.rcs1000 said:@felix
The early years of the coalition showed the LibDems losing council seats. The later years saw the LibDems poll OK. But what's truly remarkable, if you look through the threads from 2014 and early 2015, was how often the LibDems didn't even stand in local by-elections. It was clear evidence of a party in full on retreat.
Early this year I predicted 12-14% at the next general election for the LibDems, and 10 to 14 seats (based on a 600 seat parliament). I see no reason to change my forecast.0 -
If Farron has a strategy to become PM, then he's stupid. He isn't PM material in several important ways.
His, and the Lib Dems, strategy will be based around rebuilding and becoming relevant again in UK politics; to regain their voice. This was why I picked him as next Lib Dem leader yonks ago, and why I think he's doing a good job. He knows the party inside out.
As Farage and UKIP have shown with the referendum, you do not need fifty seats in parliament to have influence and relevance in politics, although they help. Having a firm base of committed activists is essential.
That's also why the Conservatives should be slightly nervous (though not too much so) about their small reverses.
Labour, however, should be terrified.0 -
Rob, the Tories and UKIP were going to run a hegemony of the ages, as you well know. Why would anyone look to cast their vote anywhere else?RobD said:
Who were these people thinking would replace them? Or were they just thinking it would be a Tory hegemony down there?Monksfield said:
Sorry Rob, we've had numerous comments to the effect that whilst the LDs may come back in a few seats with special characteristics, they were likely finished down west. This shows it's not that simple.RobD said:
Did anyone actually say that? Labour under Corbyn certainly weren't going to make any inroads.Monksfield said:Now, I thought it was PB received wisdom that the LD are toast in the West country...
A raft of people have asserted on here that the LDs will win no seats in the SW at the next election, excepting perhaps Bath. The map will remain wholly blue. That may be the case, but we're now seeing signs that the LDs are reviving and in that case some west country MPs might start looking over the shoulder.
The other notable thing from many weeks of results is how UKIP looks moribund. Maybe their voters don't turn out for local elections. Or maybe they were always just seen as a pressure group. After all, half the PB kippers have returned to the mother ship noe.
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I don't think the SNP wolf crying strategy will work so well next time. Especially after 5 years of Euro squabbles.felix said:
I think that is possible but much depends on how Brexit goes and I'm unconvinced that Farron's stance on this and on other matters will be effective in a GE campaign where the fears of an SNP backed anti-Tory coalition might well focus voters' minds as it did last year.rcs1000 said:@felix
The early years of the coalition showed the LibDems losing council seats. The later years saw the LibDems poll OK. But what's truly remarkable, if you look through the threads from 2014 and early 2015, was how often the LibDems didn't even stand in local by-elections. It was clear evidence of a party in full on retreat.
Early this year I predicted 12-14% at the next general election for the LibDems, and 10 to 14 seats (based on a 600 seat parliament). I see no reason to change my forecast.0 -
Surely there aren't too many Labour-held LibDem targets within reach? Cambridge, B'ham Yardley, couple in NW. Anything else?JosiasJessop said:If Farron has a strategy to become PM, then he's stupid. He isn't PM material in several important ways.
His, and the Lib Dems, strategy will be based around rebuilding and becoming relevant again in UK politics; to regain their voice. This was why I picked him as next Lib Dem leader yonks ago, and why I think he's doing a good job. He knows the party inside out.
As Farage and UKIP have shown with the referendum, you do not need fifty seats in parliament to have influence and relevance in politics, although they help. Having a firm base of committed activists is essential.
That's also why the Conservatives should be slightly nervous (though not too much so) about their small reverses.
Labour, however, should be terrified.0 -
If the Lib Dems were ambitious they'd look at the super-Remain seats in inner London. places like Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Hornsey &Wood Green, maybe even Islington South &Finsbury.rottenborough said:
Surely there aren't too many Labour-held LibDem targets within reach? Cambridge, B'ham Yardley, couple in NW. Anything else?JosiasJessop said:If Farron has a strategy to become PM, then he's stupid. He isn't PM material in several important ways.
His, and the Lib Dems, strategy will be based around rebuilding and becoming relevant again in UK politics; to regain their voice. This was why I picked him as next Lib Dem leader yonks ago, and why I think he's doing a good job. He knows the party inside out.
As Farage and UKIP have shown with the referendum, you do not need fifty seats in parliament to have influence and relevance in politics, although they help. Having a firm base of committed activists is essential.
That's also why the Conservatives should be slightly nervous (though not too much so) about their small reverses.
Labour, however, should be terrified.0 -
Makes sense. Former were previously LibDem I believe.AlastairMeeks said:
If the Lib Dems were ambitious they'd look at the super-Remain seats in inner London. places like Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Hornsey &Wood Green, maybe even Islington South &Finsbury.rottenborough said:
Surely there aren't too many Labour-held LibDem targets within reach? Cambridge, B'ham Yardley, couple in NW. Anything else?JosiasJessop said:If Farron has a strategy to become PM, then he's stupid. He isn't PM material in several important ways.
His, and the Lib Dems, strategy will be based around rebuilding and becoming relevant again in UK politics; to regain their voice. This was why I picked him as next Lib Dem leader yonks ago, and why I think he's doing a good job. He knows the party inside out.
As Farage and UKIP have shown with the referendum, you do not need fifty seats in parliament to have influence and relevance in politics, although they help. Having a firm base of committed activists is essential.
That's also why the Conservatives should be slightly nervous (though not too much so) about their small reverses.
Labour, however, should be terrified.0 -
Yes, your LD forecast sounds about right for a 2020 election on 600 seats.rcs1000 said:@felix
The early years of the coalition showed the LibDems losing council seats. The later years saw the LibDems poll OK. But what's truly remarkable, if you look through the threads from 2014 and early 2015, was how often the LibDems didn't even stand in local by-elections. It was clear evidence of a party in full on retreat.
Early this year I predicted 12-14% at the next general election for the LibDems, and 10 to 14 seats (based on a 600 seat parliament). I see no reason to change my forecast.0 -
@Monksfield
If the boundaries in Scotland don't change, the LibDems will almost certainly pick up Edinburgh West and Fife NE from the SNP.
Scotland has gone from anti Tory tactical voting, to anti SNP.0 -
I know they're in fourth at the moment, but Norwich South was heavily remain and has a recent Lib Dem track record. They should certainly be aiming for second.AlastairMeeks said:
If the Lib Dems were ambitious they'd look at the super-Remain seats in inner London. places like Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Hornsey &Wood Green, maybe even Islington South &Finsbury.rottenborough said:
Surely there aren't too many Labour-held LibDem targets within reach? Cambridge, B'ham Yardley, couple in NW. Anything else?JosiasJessop said:If Farron has a strategy to become PM, then he's stupid. He isn't PM material in several important ways.
His, and the Lib Dems, strategy will be based around rebuilding and becoming relevant again in UK politics; to regain their voice. This was why I picked him as next Lib Dem leader yonks ago, and why I think he's doing a good job. He knows the party inside out.
As Farage and UKIP have shown with the referendum, you do not need fifty seats in parliament to have influence and relevance in politics, although they help. Having a firm base of committed activists is essential.
That's also why the Conservatives should be slightly nervous (though not too much so) about their small reverses.
Labour, however, should be terrified.
The big obstacle to them winning might be that Lewis is high profile and campaigned for Remain.0 -
I think you're right, but that wasn't quite my point. The reason Labour should be terrified is that they're not performing too well in locals at a time when they're in opposition against a government that is essentially an open goal.rottenborough said:
Surely there aren't too many Labour-held LibDem targets within reach? Cambridge, B'ham Yardley, couple in NW. Anything else?JosiasJessop said:If Farron has a strategy to become PM, then he's stupid. He isn't PM material in several important ways.
His, and the Lib Dems, strategy will be based around rebuilding and becoming relevant again in UK politics; to regain their voice. This was why I picked him as next Lib Dem leader yonks ago, and why I think he's doing a good job. He knows the party inside out.
As Farage and UKIP have shown with the referendum, you do not need fifty seats in parliament to have influence and relevance in politics, although they help. Having a firm base of committed activists is essential.
That's also why the Conservatives should be slightly nervous (though not too much so) about their small reverses.
Labour, however, should be terrified.
The threat to Labour doesn't come from just the Lib Dems. Labour are currently a rudderless ship with the Rocks of May, the Cliffs of Farron and the Isle of Nuttal surrounding them. Off to port lies the wave-swept wreck of Scottish Labour, sunk by a massive Salmond, it's mast a desultory solitary middle finger stuck up towards Westminster.
Difficult waters to navigate, especially when you have Captain 'Calamity' Corbyn at the helm.0 -
He loves campaigning and hustings. He will relish the debates. Corbyn looks to enjoy them also, but his party supporters may need to hide behind the sofa. May will be a cold fish, as always.rottenborough said:
No, just imagining. Farron seems to be doing ok as a campaigning type of leader, but I doubt he will look suitably PM at the leader debates.felix said:
I'm not sure that Farron would wish to imagine that scenario - do you know something in the wind?rottenborough said:
Will we have GE leaders debates this time?JosiasJessop said:So a very good night for the Lib Dems, a terrible one for the Conservatives, and a poor one for Labour.
I'm amused that some on here are still loudly criticising Farron. It seems he's doing what is needed.
Imagine Clegg up against an exhausted and nervous May and hopeless Corbyn!0 -
Plus whatever they finally do say on Brexit will be seen through the tuition fee pledge.felix said:
I think that is possible but much depends on how Brexit goes and I'm unconvinced that Farron's stance on this and on other matters will be effective in a GE campaign where the fears of an SNP backed anti-Tory coalition might well focus voters' minds as it did last year.rcs1000 said:@felix
The early years of the coalition showed the LibDems losing council seats. The later years saw the LibDems poll OK. But what's truly remarkable, if you look through the threads from 2014 and early 2015, was how often the LibDems didn't even stand in local by-elections. It was clear evidence of a party in full on retreat.
Early this year I predicted 12-14% at the next general election for the LibDems, and 10 to 14 seats (based on a 600 seat parliament). I see no reason to change my forecast.
Fool me once...0 -
Ydoethur
That's an interesting call: it could be a seat won on less than 30% of the vote0 -
This clearly gave the Huffington Post great pain - they initially highlighted the fall in support for Britain in the EU but only described the rise in support for Britain in the much larger outside world as 'surprising results':
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-uk-reputation-eu-commonwealth_uk_58517127e4b00f3fd28c541f?utm_hp_ref=uk-brexit
A 32% to 21% lead on Brexit increasing Britain's 'overall attractiveness', now who would have expected that ? Clearly not the Huffington Post.
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Unless they are the party of rejoin for 2020.TOPPING said:
Plus whatever they finally do say on Brexit will be seen through the tuition fee pledge.felix said:
I think that is possible but much depends on how Brexit goes and I'm unconvinced that Farron's stance on this and on other matters will be effective in a GE campaign where the fears of an SNP backed anti-Tory coalition might well focus voters' minds as it did last year.rcs1000 said:@felix
The early years of the coalition showed the LibDems losing council seats. The later years saw the LibDems poll OK. But what's truly remarkable, if you look through the threads from 2014 and early 2015, was how often the LibDems didn't even stand in local by-elections. It was clear evidence of a party in full on retreat.
Early this year I predicted 12-14% at the next general election for the LibDems, and 10 to 14 seats (based on a 600 seat parliament). I see no reason to change my forecast.
Fool me once...0 -
@rcs1000
Quote"If the boundaries in Scotland don't change, the LibDems will almost certainly pick up Edinburgh West and Fife NE from the SNP.
Scotland has gone from anti Tory tactical voting, to anti SNP.
Not surprised. After a few years of the hectoring voice of Ms Sturgeon, that's enough for anyone to vote for someone else. THE SNP is running out of excuses too, they've been running the show, its down to them now.0 -
Huge increases in per centage for the Lib Dems in the 3 West County seats. So much for them being unpopular in that area because of their EU stance. Looks like the area has reverted to Con v Lib Dem.0
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Ive long thought they could do well here again, but there is something in thevreveuved wisdom about whether it will translate to parliamentary.Monksfield said:Now, I thought it was PB received wisdom that the LD are toast in the West country...
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All parties u turn. That was a big one, although half their support had already jumped ship before then, the red liberals, but no reason people could not give them a new chance, though it's not inevitable. Though apparently Clegg is hinting he'll be retiring, which is a shame but is not surprising and should help.TOPPING said:
Plus whatever they finally do say on Brexit will be seen through the tuition fee pledge.felix said:
I think that is possible but much depends on how Brexit goes and I'm unconvinced that Farron's stance on this and on other matters will be effective in a GE campaign where the fears of an SNP backed anti-Tory coalition might well focus voters' minds as it did last year.rcs1000 said:@felix
The early years of the coalition showed the LibDems losing council seats. The later years saw the LibDems poll OK. But what's truly remarkable, if you look through the threads from 2014 and early 2015, was how often the LibDems didn't even stand in local by-elections. It was clear evidence of a party in full on retreat.
Early this year I predicted 12-14% at the next general election for the LibDems, and 10 to 14 seats (based on a 600 seat parliament). I see no reason to change my forecast.
Fool me once...0 -
Scotland may already be on the way out by then, we shall see. But the thing about the crying wolf is the wolf is definitely, demonstrably there. I assume the difficulties of Brexit, plus 10 years of Tory government, will make people more amenable to even an SNP deal, but it's possible it's just as effective.Monksfield said:
I don't think the SNP wolf crying strategy will work so well next time. Especially after 5 years of Euro squabbles.felix said:
I think that is possible but much depends on how Brexit goes and I'm unconvinced that Farron's stance on this and on other matters will be effective in a GE campaign where the fears of an SNP backed anti-Tory coalition might well focus voters' minds as it did last year.rcs1000 said:@felix
The early years of the coalition showed the LibDems losing council seats. The later years saw the LibDems poll OK. But what's truly remarkable, if you look through the threads from 2014 and early 2015, was how often the LibDems didn't even stand in local by-elections. It was clear evidence of a party in full on retreat.
Early this year I predicted 12-14% at the next general election for the LibDems, and 10 to 14 seats (based on a 600 seat parliament). I see no reason to change my forecast.0 -
Holy shieeeeet :
Check this out
http://www.itv.com/news/granada/update/2016-12-15/bolton-council-leader-defends-300-000-grant/0 -
The latter. The idea being the area will never vote labour en masse, and given it's a quite euroskeptic area, even the former ld voters are a little blue, and if the lds pitch as properly left it will keep some away, and add to that they are a long way back even inseats they used to hold in many cases, so you'd need a consistent very high swing just to back a few.RobD said:
Who were these people thinking would replace them? Or were they just thinking it would be a Tory hegemony down there?Monksfield said:
Sorry Rob, we've had numerous comments to the effect that whilst the LDs may come back in a few seats with special characteristics, they were likely finished down west. This shows it's not that simple.RobD said:
Did anyone actually say that? Labour under Corbyn certainly weren't going to make any inroads.Monksfield said:Now, I thought it was PB received wisdom that the LD are toast in the West country...
My oft repeated but no evidence theory is that while good targeting, led national woes and anti SNP bites were a big part of the wipeout, the region is also full of blue liberals - people who lean Tory but are put off when they go too far right, and therefore vote ld, and under Cameron, who worked well in coalition, they had little reason to vote ld over Tory.0 -
Better than rock bottom at least.AlastairMeeks said:
They've gone from being completely irrelevant to being a bit more relevant. That's a good thing for the Lib Dems.TOPPING said:Plus ca change..
LDs have gone from being NOTA to then being one of the above, and now are back to NOTA as people judge that they don't pose enough of a threat actually to get into government.
It is not a good thing for the LDs.0 -
" But he has now said that although lessons need to be learnt, he has done nothing wrong. "Pulpstar said:Holy shieeeeet :
Check this out
http://www.itv.com/news/granada/update/2016-12-15/bolton-council-leader-defends-300-000-grant/
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Difficult to begrudge the LibDems a few moments of pleasure ... but let me try.
Welshpool was one on the most LibDem parts of the former LibDem citadel of Montgomeryshire (longest uninterrupted LibDem seat in the country till Lembit Opik hit town).
In Welshpool, Llanerchyddol, they were 4 votes away from taking the ward in 2012.
They went spectacularly backwards in this by-election.
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Council elections could be interesting - in wiltshire the lds managed to gain seats last time despite their overall vote dropping, they would surely anticipate an increase.theakes said:Huge increases in per centage for the Lib Dems in the 3 West County seats. So much for them being unpopular in that area because of their EU stance. Looks like the area has reverted to Con v Lib Dem.
Though if memory serves Id by election locals generally were better for them than May locals in the last few years.
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So recovering in the south of England, isolated bits of Scotland, but nowhere else?YBarddCwsc said:Difficult to begrudge the LibDems a few moments of pleasure ... but let me try.
Welshpool was one on the most LibDem parts of the former LibDem citadel of Montgomeryshire (longest uninterrupted LibDem seat in the country till Lembit Opik hit town).
In Welshpool, Llanerchyddol, they were 4 votes away from taking the ward in 2012.
They went spectacularly backwards in this by-election.
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A super open letter to the Democrats in the USA:
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=72680 -
Bit hard to know with Welshpool, as ever where independents are involved. The fact the Tories didn't stand last time suggests (perhaps wrongly) that the previous one was a Condependent. The fact they stood this time suggests (again perhaps wrongly) that the new one was not and may have been more appealing to LDs. That's speculation though.
Good results overall for yellows.0 -
And what will the Independent poll in a GE? Rural Wales is about personalities as much as politics.YBarddCwsc said:Difficult to begrudge the LibDems a few moments of pleasure ... but let me try.
Welshpool was one on the most LibDem parts of the former LibDem citadel of Montgomeryshire (longest uninterrupted LibDem seat in the country till Lembit Opik hit town).
In Welshpool, Llanerchyddol, they were 4 votes away from taking the ward in 2012.
They went spectacularly backwards in this by-election.
Edit, and didn't Montgomeryshire go Tory for a cycle in the 80s, well before Lembit?0 -
A little too dismissive of the importance of some concerns, but not mincing words about the practical difficulties ahead, in terms of facing up to problems and how the republicans might take advantage, and you can't rely on them messing up. I would think it will not gain traction due to the talk of identity racial politics.Patrick said:A super open letter to the Democrats in the USA:
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=72680 -
There was an independent in 2012, so it is a reasonably fair comparison between then and yesterday.
The seat will (assuming boundary changes go through) be dismembered.
Welshpool itself goes into South Clwyd & North Montgomeryshire. The LibDems have no strength in Clwyd, and the seat will be a Tory/Labour battleground.
(I agree that rural Wales is often about personalities -- that is why it was so thick of the LibDems to chose a publicity-seeking Estonian/N. Irishman with no connection to the area to represent Montgomeryshire and why they deservedly lost the seat).0 -
A little too dismissive of the importance of some concerns, but not mincing words about the practical difficulties ahead, in terms of facing up to problems and how the republicans might take advantage, and you can't rely on them messing up. I would think it will not gain traction due to the talk of identity racial politics.
I agree. The left's politics is a bit doomed as the world has moved on and got fed up to the back teeth with identity politics and shaming. For the Dems to do what they must in the US or for Corbyn to do similar here amounts to a denial of what they actually stand for. The left may recover tactically here and there - but they are in very deep shit strategically in a world where they seem irrelevant to the everyday concerns of Middle America/Middle England. When parties created to stand up for the ordinary man start instead to despise the ordinary man then what is left? Transgender bathrooms?0 -
I do like the photo of Obama and putin on the BBC. It's like two boxers squaring before a fight (in that scripted stuff that smacks of pro wrestling)0
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Monksfield,
Montgomeryshire was briefly Tory when the Liberals suffered the misfortune of their former leader being on trial for murder.
It was lost by the Tories against the national trend in 1983.0 -
0
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A key issue seems to be the highlighted one About even if the voters ignored and belittled are as racist and sexist as claimed, they don't see it that way and resent being told that. Not encouraging the genuinely racist and sexist is important, of course, but you can't do any good if you lump such people and perhaps just the verbally clumsy as well as being no better than scum.Patrick said:A little too dismissive of the importance of some concerns, but not mincing words about the practical difficulties ahead, in terms of facing up to problems and how the republicans might take advantage, and you can't rely on them messing up. I would think it will not gain traction due to the talk of identity racial politics.
I agree. The left's politics is a bit doomed as the world has moved on and got fed up to the back teeth with identity politics and shaming. For the Dems to do what they must in the US or for Corbyn to do similar here amounts to a denial of what they actually stand for. The left may recover tactically here and there - but they are in very deep shit strategically in a world where they seem irrelevant to the everyday concerns of Middle America/Middle England. When parties created to stand up for the ordinary man start instead to despise the ordinary man then what is left? Transgender bathrooms?0 -
rcs1000, thanks for the link. Ah yes, Peter Bessell MP, another wrong'un.
There were not many Liberal MPs in the 70s and 80s,
And when one looks at the roster -- Bessell (convicted fraudster), Thorpe (rabbit fancier), Cyril Smith (child abuser), Clement Freud (child abuser, as conceded by his wife) -- there was a very high proportion of wrong'uns.
My late mother was a stalwart of the Montgomeryshire Liberal Party and predicted they would lose the seat in 1979 after the Thorpe affair.
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Those 3 Lib Dem gains from the Tories in the West Country were huge increases in vote share. One swallow does not make a summer - but this isn't one swallow. It's a picture that has been fairly consistent since May (edit: Tory (negative) bar shows up if you click on the picture - not some sort of plot to ignore them)
https://twitter.com/LibDemNewbiesUK/status/8096587736232386570 -
Important to understand I think that being on the left and being liberal, a true liberal, are not one and the same. Part of the left's problems stem from the fact that they have moved away from genuine liberal principles and values.kle4 said:
A key issue seems to be the highlighted one About even if the voters ignored and belittled are as racist and sexist as claimed, they don't see it that way and resent being told that. Not encouraging the genuinely racist and sexist is important, of course, but you can't do any good if you lump such people and perhaps just the verbally clumsy as well as being no better than scum.Patrick said:A little too dismissive of the importance of some concerns, but not mincing words about the practical difficulties ahead, in terms of facing up to problems and how the republicans might take advantage, and you can't rely on them messing up. I would think it will not gain traction due to the talk of identity racial politics.
I agree. The left's politics is a bit doomed as the world has moved on and got fed up to the back teeth with identity politics and shaming. For the Dems to do what they must in the US or for Corbyn to do similar here amounts to a denial of what they actually stand for. The left may recover tactically here and there - but they are in very deep shit strategically in a world where they seem irrelevant to the everyday concerns of Middle America/Middle England. When parties created to stand up for the ordinary man start instead to despise the ordinary man then what is left? Transgender bathrooms?
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The underlying trend seems to be a return of tactical anti-Government voting, which is pretty normal 18 months into a Parliament. I'm not sure we can tell much more at this stage but the LibDems should at least be pleased that they're seen by many Labour voters as a reasonable anti-Tory alternative now, which they largely weren't at the GE.0
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That's true. We often use liberal to mean good, which becomes self fulfilling - I am good therefore I am liberal, this idea is liberal because I am good.Cyclefree said:
Important to understand I think that being on the left and being liberal, a true liberal, are not one and the same. Part of the left's problems stem from the fact that they have moved away from genuine liberal principles and values.kle4 said:
A key issue seems to be the highlighted one About even if the voters ignored and belittled are as racist and sexist as claimed, they don't see it that way and resent being told that. Not encouraging the genuinely racist and sexist is important, of course, but you can't do any good if you lump such people and perhaps just the verbally clumsy as well as being no better than scum.Patrick said:A little too dismissive of the importance of some concerns, but not mincing words about the practical difficulties ahead, in terms of facing up to problems and how the republicans might take advantage, and you can't rely on them messing up. I would think it will not gain traction due to the talk of identity racial politics.
I agree. The left's politics is a bit doomed as the world has moved on and got fed up to the back teeth with identity politics and shaming. For the Dems to do what they must in the US or for Corbyn to do similar here amounts to a denial of what they actually stand for. The left may recover tactically here and there - but they are in very deep shit strategically in a world where they seem irrelevant to the everyday concerns of Middle America/Middle England. When parties created to stand up for the ordinary man start instead to despise the ordinary man then what is left? Transgender bathrooms?0 -
Excellent results for the Lib Dems suggest that the Tory government is not so much loved as the only option available to the country at the moment. Those who are not enamoured of that government are looking around for a choice. Labour, of course, are not playing. UKIP are in a total mess. The Lib Dems need to ride the wave, particularly of those who voted remain and still think that is an option.
The problem will come in that by the next election we will have already left the EU. It will be a fait accompli, a bit like Lisbon was for the Tories. But that doesn't really matter. What matters now is that Labour are shipping water badly and are vulnerable. The Lib Dems need to do all they can to firstly establishing themselves as the alternative to the Tories in Tory areas (box partially ticked) and secondly, and more importantly, establishing themselves as an alternative to a moribund and pointless Labour party in Labour areas. Much to do in the latter and next year's local elections are going to be key.0 -
The Association of Lib Dem Councillors has just tweeted that 2016 has been the best year for Lib Dems in council by-elections since they started collecting the data 20 years ago0
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Well worth watching the Rubin Report long form intvs. He's what I'd call a liberal left guy who's still a liberal. He's now on the fringes of the Left as it's moved away from him entirely. He's married to his husband and has a dog - he's that conventional.Cyclefree said:
Important to understand I think that being on the left and being liberal, a true liberal, are not one and the same. Part of the left's problems stem from the fact that they have moved away from genuine liberal principles and values.kle4 said:
A key issue seems to be the highlighted one About even if the voters ignored and belittled are as racist and sexist as claimed, they don't see it that way and resent being told that. Not encouraging the genuinely racist and sexist is important, of course, but you can't do any good if you lump such people and perhaps just the verbally clumsy as well as being no better than scum.Patrick said:A little too dismissive of the importance of some concerns, but not mincing words about the practical difficulties ahead, in terms of facing up to problems and how the republicans might take advantage, and you can't rely on them messing up. I would think it will not gain traction due to the talk of identity racial politics.
I agree. The left's politics is a bit doomed as the world has moved on and got fed up to the back teeth with identity politics and shaming. For the Dems to do what they must in the US or for Corbyn to do similar here amounts to a denial of what they actually stand for. The left may recover tactically here and there - but they are in very deep shit strategically in a world where they seem irrelevant to the everyday concerns of Middle America/Middle England. When parties created to stand up for the ordinary man start instead to despise the ordinary man then what is left? Transgender bathrooms?
A recent clip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTrsQ4ykLqM0 -
Yes. Pitching for the middle again, playing anti Tory vote or anti labour depending on the area, is not an effective recipe long term for government prospect, but it has and can again get them respectable numbers.NickPalmer said:The underlying trend seems to be a return of tactical anti-Government voting, which is pretty normal 18 months into a Parliament. I'm not sure we can tell much more at this stage but the LibDems should at least be pleased that they're seen by many Labour voters as a reasonable anti-Tory alternative now, which they largely weren't at the GE.
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I see you did lose 1 though. Bet they feel left out right now.MrsB said:Those 3 Lib Dem gains from the Tories in the West Country were huge increases in vote share. One swallow does not make a summer - but this isn't one swallow. It's a picture that has been fairly consistent since May (edit: Tory (negative) bar shows up if you click on the picture - not some sort of plot to ignore them)
https://twitter.com/LibDemNewbiesUK/status/8096587736232386570 -
Important to understand I think that being on the left and being liberal, a true liberal, are not one and the same. Part of the left's problems stem from the fact that they have moved away from genuine liberal principles and values.
The left is all about control. Socialism as a political reality only exists in despotic states. Their core philosophy is not tolerance but that everyone must do as they say. They preach diversity but will tolerate zero political diversity. They preach empathy but intimidate and attack those who say something not in line with their narrowminded views via shaming and no-platforming. Leftyism is basically evil - a denial of an individual's right to think and behave freely in ways not to their liking. It's 'I'm good - and if you disagree with anything I say I'll fucking kill you'. Charming. People are wise to this now and increasingly happy to call bullshit on it. I'm not sure there's a market for it anymore.0 -
I think a focus on the many contributing to help the most needed, reduce inequality, that sort of thing, works as a pitch better than focusing on social acceptability issues. Tories claim to do the same of course but aren't believed. And of course most of our left are not stalinists, which helps.Patrick said:Important to understand I think that being on the left and being liberal, a true liberal, are not one and the same. Part of the left's problems stem from the fact that they have moved away from genuine liberal principles and values.
The left is all about control. Socialism as a political reality only exists in despotic states. Their core philosophy is not tolerance but that everyone must do as they say. They preach diversity but will tolerate zero political diversity. They preach empathy but intimidate and attack those who say something not in line with their narrowminded views via shaming and no-platforming. Leftyism is basically evil - a denial of an individual's right to think and behave freely in ways not to their liking. It's 'I'm good - and if you disagree with anything I say I'll fucking kill you'. Charming. People are wise to this now and increasingly happy to call bullshit on it. I'm not sure there's a market for it anymore.
Socialist states have proven very intolerant and oppressive. Socialist ideals, particularly when called something else, can still be popular.0 -
"The left is all about control. Socialism as a political reality only exists in despotic states. Their core philosophy is not tolerance but that everyone must do as they say. They preach diversity but will tolerate zero political diversity. They preach empathy but intimidate and attack those who say something not in line with their narrowminded views via shaming and no-platforming. Leftyism is basically evil - a denial of an individual's right to think and behave freely in ways not to their liking. It's 'I'm good - and if you disagree with anything I say I'll fucking kill you'. Charming. People are wise to this now and increasingly happy to call bullshit on it. I'm not sure there's a market for it anymore."
If by left you mean what I would term the far left I agree. It's why the far left and hard right agree on so much, from controlling the judiciary and media through lionising Putin to deep-rooted anti-Semitism.0 -
"The underlying trend seems to be a return of tactical anti-Government voting, which is pretty normal 18 months into a Parliament. I'm not sure we can tell much more at this stage but the LibDems should at least be pleased that they're seen by many Labour voters as a reasonable anti-Tory alternative now, which they largely weren't at the GE."
The underlying trend since the general election in local election results has been a swing from Labour to the Tories. It is certainly good to see that the LDs are reviving in the south, but there is little to no indication that Labour is picking up tactical support when it is best placed to defeat the Tories.0 -
You seem very angry for 9.30 on a Friday morning.Patrick said:Leftyism is basically evil - a denial of an individual's right to think and behave freely in ways not to their liking. It's 'I'm good - and if you disagree with anything I say I'll fucking kill you'. Charming.
Not to get all Innocent Abroad about it, but what do you think society should do about people who espouse views that are 'basically evil'?
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That's very good except that the Democrats, led by their friends in the media, still haven't realised what happened and are determined to double down on the same strategy next time - just with a different candidate.Patrick said:A super open letter to the Democrats in the USA:
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=72680 -
Southam - I expect my left does equal your far left. I think there is - in fact must be - a softer left option for voters. A slightly more spendy bigger state but financially sensible option.
But....We don't have an attractive centre left party in the UK. Labour are off with the fairies and their commie/terrorist buddies. Any party led by Jezza and McMao is frankly just an insult to decent people. And the LibDems seem to want to poison their chances of becoming that attractive centre left option by waving two fingers at the UK and making the fellation of Brussels a core party policy. Non-insane decent soft left voters must be feeling awfully unrepresented at the moment. Who can they vote for?0 -
In fairness, the republicans did an analysis after 2012 which identified all the things they needed to do, then trump ensured they ignored it all and it worked. Not sure who a trump of the left would be though.Sandpit said:
That's very good except that the Democrats, led by their friends in the media, still haven't realised what happened and are determined to double down on the same strategy next time - just with a different candidate.Patrick said:A super open letter to the Democrats in the USA:
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=72680 -
Ho, ho, ho.
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/809678920924663808
Brexiteers must feel a bit like it must have been like to be a black person 20 or 30 years ago.0 -
YBarddCwsc said:
rcs1000, thanks for the link. Ah yes, Peter Bessell MP, another wrong'un.
There were not many Liberal MPs in the 70s and 80s,
And when one looks at the roster -- Bessell (convicted fraudster), Thorpe (rabbit fancier), Cyril Smith (child abuser), Clement Freud (child abuser, as conceded by his wife) -- there was a very high proportion of wrong'uns.
My late mother was a stalwart of the Montgomeryshire Liberal Party and predicted they would lose the seat in 1979 after the Thorpe affair.
I think that is a little harsh. The term 'evil' is applicable to some on left and right extremes.Patrick said:Important to understand I think that being on the left and being liberal, a true liberal, are not one and the same. Part of the left's problems stem from the fact that they have moved away from genuine liberal principles and values.
The left is all about control. Socialism as a political reality only exists in despotic states. Their core philosophy is not tolerance but that everyone must do as they say. They preach diversity but will tolerate zero political diversity. They preach empathy but intimidate and attack those who say something not in line with their narrowminded views via shaming and no-platforming. Leftyism is basically evil - a denial of an individual's right to think and behave freely in ways not to their liking. It's 'I'm good - and if you disagree with anything I say I'll fucking kill you'. Charming. People are wise to this now and increasingly happy to call bullshit on it. I'm not sure there's a market for it anymore.
The left is dogmatic in pursuit of, for example, gender equality. The good intention of equality becomes lost in the enforcement of that equality at a cost that penalises and punishes the majority, causing a reaction against the core objective.
Strangely, the right is often far better at implementing social change than the left, as they have a better instinct that you can not hector, brow beat or force people to abide by things that are against their authentic self.
If the left were not so self righteous, earnest and dogmatic they would be more attractive. Different opinions are to be respected and allowed (even unattractive ones) not shouted down and mocked. Only by allowing and respecting different opinions can you change them.0 -
SO: that's not entirely correct. I agree that Labour's underlying position is clearly weak at the moment, but Blackburn was the only seat last night with Labour in a strong position, and they accelerated away, notably at the expense of UKIP, whose threat in WWC areas is IMO exaggerated. Last week IIRC Labour picked up a Midlands Tory seat with what looked like tactical support from others.
I'm cherry-picking here, but so is everyone - in reality December council by-elections on few hundred votes each aren't a reliable guide to much, and the polls, for all their faults, are probably the best available guide to trends. The Tory position will remain strong until and unless the Bresxit negotiations are seen tobe going badly wrong. What happens then is not at all clear.0 -
NEW THREAD
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Frankly, while labour are suffering most at present, i get the impression none of the parties wants my vote.Patrick said:Southam - I expect my left does equal your far left. I think there is - in fact must be - a softer left option for voters. A slightly more spendy bigger state but financially sensible option.
But....We don't have an attractive centre left party in the UK. Labour are off with the fairies and their commie/terrorist buddies. Any party led by Jezza and McMao is frankly just an insult to decent people. And the LibDems seem to want to poison their chances of becoming that attractive centre left option by waving two fingers at the UK and making the fellation of Brussels a core party policy. Non-insane decent soft left voters must be feeling awfully unrepresented at the moment. Who can they vote for?
I'm not pure red enough for the greens, not angry enough for UKIP or labour, too questioning and coalition Like for the tories, and not Euro friendly enough for the lds.0 -
You seem very angry for 9.30 on a Friday morning.
Not to get all Innocent Abroad about it, but what do you think society should do about people who espouse views that are 'basically evil'?
Not angry just sanguine. We give these fuckers a pass they don't deserve. If someone wore a Swastika on their T-shirt you'd call them a monster (or worse). But a picture of Mao or Che or a red star is somehow cool? Actually a lot more evil and murderous in absolute terms.
What should we do? Free speech is all that is needed. Call bullshit on their little lies and aggressions. The USA just called bullshit on the cult of Clinton and all the lefty crap that it brings. Way to go yanks! The Labour polling in the UK suggests we are pretty much the same. A lie or an evil can only be sustained for so long and only through control of the media. In an internet age that ain't possible any more. The left is dying because it lost control and is having a critical light shone on it properly for the first time.0 -
@NickPalmer - totally agree about UKIP. But Labour's task is not to fend of UKIP in its existing strongholds, but to win where it has not won for over 10 years now.0
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Vauxhall looks interesting to me. Ultra-Remain but MP is Kate Hoey. Is there any MP in the country who went against their constituents more on Brexit? I've no made gossip but guess she will face a deselection battle and a divided Labour Party as a result. No idea f here will be a LD way in, but it looks interesting for a change. Assumes current boundaries of course.AlastairMeeks said:
If the Lib Dems were ambitious they'd look at the super-Remain seats in inner London. places like Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Hornsey &Wood Green, maybe even Islington South &Finsbury.rottenborough said:
Surely there aren't too many Labour-held LibDem targets within reach? Cambridge, B'ham Yardley, couple in NW. Anything else?JosiasJessop said:If Farron has a strategy to become PM, then he's stupid. He isn't PM material in several important ways.
His, and the Lib Dems, strategy will be based around rebuilding and becoming relevant again in UK politics; to regain their voice. This was why I picked him as next Lib Dem leader yonks ago, and why I think he's doing a good job. He knows the party inside out.
As Farage and UKIP have shown with the referendum, you do not need fifty seats in parliament to have influence and relevance in politics, although they help. Having a firm base of committed activists is essential.
That's also why the Conservatives should be slightly nervous (though not too much so) about their small reverses.
Labour, however, should be terrified.0 -
O/T
"You don't need to look like Benjamin Disraeli if your opponent is the latter day Marquis of Granby. Just looking sane and normal would be enough"
I used to use a pub called the Marquis of Granby but I have never heard of a boozer named after Disraeli. So perhaps the former had something going for him.
On the subject of pubs named after politicians: in the fifties a new one was built in Battersea on the site of one that had been bombed during the war. It was given a new name - The Herbert Morrison. I have never heard of another public house that was named after a modern politician or a Labour politician or a politician who was still alive at the time.
On that happy note I am off for my morning walk.0
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