politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three CON defences in the South West amongst tonight’s 7 by-el

Cheers Mr Hayfield.

AnneJGP said:

Thank you, Harry; an interesting bunch and an interesting time to hold elections, just before Christmas. I wonder whether Santa will put in an appearance?

Good evening, everyone.

Yes, Taunton and Teign look particularly interesting. Lets see if the LDs can make a comeback in the SW.

SeanT said:

Remember that girl who claimed she was assaulted by Trump supporting Islamophobes, and had her hijab ripped off?

Not only did she lie about it, she was proved to have lied. In response, and to show how well integrated they are, her Muslim parents forced her to shave her hair off.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4035004/Police-NYC-Muslim-womans-bias-report-false.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailus

There was an attack on a group of Eastern Europeans here that was blamed on hate crimes after Brexit, it turned out to be a rival Eastern European gang. I don't believe any of this rubbish any more. The police move from scepticism to "listen, believe" has led to false accusations and false criminal reports getting much more airtime than they would have in the past.

"The police move from scepticism to "listen, believe" has led to false accusations and false criminal reports getting much more airtime than they would have in the past."

You used to have to read all kinds of crazy books and keep up with the latest state-of-the-art in conspiracy theory to read about the satanic sex cults that have infiltrated our governments to secretly rule the Earth. Nowadays PC Plod believes that stuff and tells his mates at the red tops all about it.

Has there been any comment on pb about this?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2381534/passenger-stabbed-on-train-at-forest-hill-as-cops-swarm-station-in-hunt-for-knifeman/
to quote the Sun
KNIFEMAN TAKEDOWN Dramatic moment cops arrest crazed Forest Hill knifeman who reportedly screamed ‘I want to kill a Muslim’ before launching frenzied stabbing on packed train
He added: "He was walking towards me and he was shouting stuff like 'death to Muslims' and 'go back to Syria'."

This is definitely NOT fake news. This is where we have got to in 2016. Shame on us.

Thanks Harry!

Charles said:

SeanT said:

Remember that girl who claimed she was assaulted by Trump supporting Islamophobes, and had her hijab ripped off?

Not only did she lie about it, she was proved to have lied. In response, and to show how well integrated they are, her Muslim parents forced her to shave her hair off.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4035004/Police-NYC-Muslim-womans-bias-report-false.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailus

Did you see my suit recommendation?

The advantage of quality is that I am still wearing my suits 15 years later... (and I wear them hard)

As they used to say: Quality is still there long after you've forgotten the price.

@MrsB ,Yes it was reported on here and it's disgusting what happened but you trying to use this with brexit is more disgusting.

Were you on here when lee Rigby was murdered on our streets of our country in 2013 saying the same ?

Has there been any comment on pb about this?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2381534/passenger-stabbed-on-train-at-forest-hill-as-cops-swarm-station-in-hunt-for-knifeman/
to quote the Sun
KNIFEMAN TAKEDOWN Dramatic moment cops arrest crazed Forest Hill knifeman who reportedly screamed ‘I want to kill a Muslim’ before launching frenzied stabbing on packed train
He added: "He was walking towards me and he was shouting stuff like 'death to Muslims' and 'go back to Syria'."

This is definitely NOT fake news. This is where we have got to in 2016. Shame on us.

kle4 said:

Rogue One was indeed extremely awesome.

South West defences, an interesting test ahead.

Told you. My film recommendations are awesome.

MrsB said:

Has there been any comment on pb about this?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2381534/passenger-stabbed-on-train-at-forest-hill-as-cops-swarm-station-in-hunt-for-knifeman/
to quote the Sun
KNIFEMAN TAKEDOWN Dramatic moment cops arrest crazed Forest Hill knifeman who reportedly screamed ‘I want to kill a Muslim’ before launching frenzied stabbing on packed train
He added: "He was walking towards me and he was shouting stuff like 'death to Muslims' and 'go back to Syria'."

This is definitely NOT fake news. This is where we have got to in 2016. Shame on us.

Sad news. Unfortunately, these kinds of people going to be energised by recent political events. Look at the alt-right and Trump for example.

I think, and might have said several times, invoking Four Lions, that Riz Ahmed is arguably the best British actor around at the moment. I also like that he cut his teeth on British films (did I mention Four Lions). Same with John Boyega (Attack the Block). Likewise Jack O'Connell (Starred Up).

And finally

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jw-fHLssmsI

TOPPING said:

I think, and might have said several times, invoking Four Lions, that Riz Ahmed is arguably the best British actor around at the moment. I also like that he cut his teeth on British films (did I mention Four Lions). Same with John Boyega (Attack the Block). Likewise Jack O'Connell (Starred Up).

And finally

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jw-fHLssmsI

I loves Four Lions, filmed in Sheffield, even the London bits.

I actually know a real life Barry.

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

I think, and might have said several times, invoking Four Lions, that Riz Ahmed is arguably the best British actor around at the moment. I also like that he cut his teeth on British films (did I mention Four Lions). Same with John Boyega (Attack the Block). Likewise Jack O'Connell (Starred Up).

And finally

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jw-fHLssmsI

I loves Four Lions, filmed in Sheffield, even the London bits.

I actually know a real life Barry.

Four Lions is brilliant. Proof that satire is not yet dead.

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

Remember that girl who claimed she was assaulted by Trump supporting Islamophobes, and had her hijab ripped off?

Not only did she lie about it, she was proved to have lied. In response, and to show how well integrated they are, her Muslim parents forced her to shave her hair off.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4035004/Police-NYC-Muslim-womans-bias-report-false.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailus

There was an attack on a group of Eastern Europeans here that was blamed on hate crimes after Brexit, it turned out to be a rival Eastern European gang. I don't believe any of this rubbish any more. The police move from scepticism to "listen, believe" has led to false accusations and false criminal reports getting much more airtime than they would have in the past.

Is this the attack you are referring to:

' Two Polish men were beaten to a pulp in Upton Park, east London, at the weekend.

A man, named Carlos, tweeted about the incident as he came across it.

He also posted pictures of the men - a father and son - lying unconscious on the ground, their bloody faces as they got up and paramedics treating them at the scene.

In a series of tweets, he said: 'Walking home, see these men laid out on the floor, thought they were drunk, took a photo, turns out they've been battered senseless by 'English man, English man'. They're Polish.'

'A son and his dad, dad's unconscious. Blood everywhere.'

'Father has a broken arm, and possible neck trauma, son has severe facial fractures, broken jaw and nose. my god.

'This referendum, this division, this racism, this bigotry, this disgrace. had enough of it.' '

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3662114/Reports-attacks-Poles-Muslims-wake-Brexit-vote.html

A day later:

' A VIOLENT assault on a Polish father and son feared to be a post-Brexit attack on migrants is not being treated by police as a hate crime after it was revealed to be a drunken punch-up.

Shocking photos of two bruised and battered men were posted on Twitter by man called Carlos who claimed the pair were beaten up by “Englishmen”, in east London, on Saturday night.

Yesterday a relative denied the brutal assault was racist or motivated by the Leave referendum result because the attackers were also Polish.

He told The Sun: “It was not a racist attack, people are mistaken. One was Polish and the other was a Polish gypsy." '

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1353757/suspected-post-brexit-attack-on-polish-migrants-is-now-being-treated-as-drunken-punch-up/

On a purely statistical basis there should be about 10 Polish people murdered every year in Britain.

Perhaps more if, as I believe to be the case, the most likely murder victims are young working class men.

TOPPING said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

I think, and might have said several times, invoking Four Lions, that Riz Ahmed is arguably the best British actor around at the moment. I also like that he cut his teeth on British films (did I mention Four Lions). Same with John Boyega (Attack the Block). Likewise Jack O'Connell (Starred Up).

And finally

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jw-fHLssmsI

I loves Four Lions, filmed in Sheffield, even the London bits.

I actually know a real life Barry.

Four Lions is brilliant. Proof that satire is not yet dead.

I'm not sure it's satire. It's beyond brilliant, it is profound. Morris did a lot of research to understand what makes some of the British jihadis tick, and what they think and what motivates them and it is serious and laugh out loud funny but it captures, in a not at all funny way, the supposed motivations and beliefs and emotions.

I have no idea how it does it but it is a better commentary on British extremism, extremism by Brits who are Muslims, than almost any other serious commentary or analysis on the subject.

I think it is satire, but like the best satire approaches the truth very closely. Four Lions holds up a mirror to the absurdity of real life.

Chris Morris is one of the cleverest on the planet. I loved Paedogedon too. Few would dare to make that nowadays.

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

More fake news, sadly:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/2404267/it-looks-like-that-santa-who-said-he-cradled-a-dying-boy-in-his-arms-lied/

Good god. I retweeted that story.

I've also seen pretty hard and conclusive evidence that many of the "moving" and "tragic" stories coming out of Aleppo are complete bollocks. Several vids were simply lifted from Youtube and even Hollywood, and repackaged as Assad atrocities.

Who the hell do you trust?

Not a bunch of Western/GCC/Turkey sponsored heart-eaters for a start?

That 'white helmets' thing is a propaganda exercise. They don't even have a number you can call when someone you know is trapped under rubble. The rebels chased out the actual Syria civil defence when they took over. But they do make a lovely youtube video.

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

More fake news, sadly:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/2404267/it-looks-like-that-santa-who-said-he-cradled-a-dying-boy-in-his-arms-lied/

Good god. I retweeted that story.

I've also seen pretty hard and conclusive evidence that many of the "moving" and "tragic" stories coming out of Aleppo are complete bollocks. Several vids were simply lifted from Youtube and even Hollywood, and repackaged as Assad atrocities.

Who the hell do you trust?

I have no doubt that there are atrocities in Allepo. Civil wars bring out a special sort of brutality, particularly when they are a few years old.

Can there ever be a real distinction between military and civilian in such a war? I don't think so.

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

More fake news, sadly:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/2404267/it-looks-like-that-santa-who-said-he-cradled-a-dying-boy-in-his-arms-lied/

Good god. I retweeted that story.

I've also seen pretty hard and conclusive evidence that many of the "moving" and "tragic" stories coming out of Aleppo are complete bollocks. Several vids were simply lifted from Youtube and even Hollywood, and repackaged as Assad atrocities.

Who the hell do you trust?

Not a bunch of Western/GCC/Turkey sponsored heart-eaters for a start?

That 'white helmets' thing is a propaganda exercise. They don't even have a number you can call when someone you know is trapped under rubble. The rebels chased out the actual Syria civil defence when they took over. But they do make a lovely youtube video.

Have you watched the Eva Bartlett press conference at the UN?

https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/809520721928089604

Anyone who wants to see a fake news operation in action should watch this about how the whole Syrian insurgency started:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtYvDCEKKTY

Very brave of anyone to participate - the first man to speak was murdered by the rebels some time ago.

wasd said:

kle4 said:

wasd said:

kle4 said:

Rogue One was indeed extremely awesome..

It feels like I saw a different movie to everyone else. Shame really. And such a waste of that cast.

No accounting for personal taste. Some people liked Batman vs Superman for example.

Admittedly the movie is right up my alley, was what I expected, and benefited from the last movie I say being a piece of crap on DVD called Franklyn - A pretentious, meaningless piece of drivel so up its own arse it forgot it made no sense, had no interesting characters, no connection between its supposedly interconnected stories, and some other problems. Eva Green was attractive, that was about its only good quality.

I enjoyed the Force Awakens so I'm not hostile to the SW style of things, but the first half was a mess and the second didn't do nearly enough to redeem it.

As much as I enjoyed it, it'll be some time before I notice any flaws (whereas with TFA I wasn't sure how I felt about it at first, enjoyed it much more the second time).

Emily Thornberry – the shadow foreign secretary and Corbyn’s constituency neighbour – was widely perceived to have done well in pressing the government on Brexit when she stood in for him at PMQs last week. She is now regarded as the favoured pro-Corbyn candidate to take over if the 67-year-old fails to restore the party’s fortunes and faces a renewed challenge to his leadership.

Corbyn’s new pollsters are telling him he faces a greater electoral threat from Ukip on the right than from centrist Labour voters lured to the Lib Dems by Tim Farron’s anti-Brexit stance.

Jon Trickett = IOS?

“We are the largest party in Europe. Elections consist of an air war and a ground war. The kind of ground war we’re going to run would be something on a scale this country hasn’t seen before. That’s an important new feature in British politics, which we’re going to be using.”

SeanT said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TOPPING said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

I think, and might have said several times, invoking Four Lions, that Riz Ahmed is arguably the best British actor around at the moment. I also like that he cut his teeth on British films (did I mention Four Lions). Same with John Boyega (Attack the Block). Likewise Jack O'Connell (Starred Up).

And finally

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jw-fHLssmsI

I loves Four Lions, filmed in Sheffield, even the London bits.

I actually know a real life Barry.

Four Lions is brilliant. Proof that satire is not yet dead.

I'm not sure it's satire. It's beyond brilliant, it is profound. Morris did a lot nk and what motivates them and it is serious and laugh out loud funny but it captures, in a not at all funny way, the supposed motivations and beliefs and emotions.

I have no idea how it does it but it is a better commentary on British extremism, extremism by Brits who are Muslims, than almost any other serious commentary or analysis on the subject.

I think it is satire, but like the best satire approaches the truth very closely. Four Lions holds up a mirror to the absurdity of real life.

Chris Morris is one of the cleverest on the planet. I loved Paedogedon too. Few would dare to make that nowadays.

Paedogeddon was Peak Satire. His masterpiece.

I thought Four Lions strayed TOO close to the absolute truth (this is obviously what most jihadis are really like: inept, hypocritical and bewildered) so it lost humour. It simply wasn't that funny.

It was more like a mildly amusing yet rather disturbing docudrama. Therefore it failed on a basic level. Morris should have been more surreal, and savage - as he was in Paedogeddon.

He did extensive research for Four Lions and would probably have been disappointed if people didn't find it too unoutrageous (there is a good extended Q&A with him about it on the Internet).

Its understatement and ordinariness made the whole thing more profound and coruscating.

IMO.

But NOT FUNNY, and also not that vicious

And if there was ever an institution which deserved the Full-on, Full-fat, high caffeine, Chris Morris ultra-Paedogeddon mega-treatment, it was and is modern Islam. He could have ripped this ridiculous, repulsive apology-for-a-religion a new asshole.

Of course that would have got him killed, so, understandably, he retreated to a quiet, well-observed, very mildly diverting deconstruction of humdrum British jihadis.

You're normally more perceptive than that. Morris here, as elsewhere, doesn't put a foot wrong; go and rewatch it.

@Pulpstar,


Re your ∃ s ∈ ℂ → ζ(s) = 0, s = x + iy (x ∈ ℝ, 0 < x < 1, x != 0.5)

h ttp://mathworld.wolfram.com/RiemannZetaFunctionZeros.html ?

viewcode said:

Where in the name of fuck is the reply button?

On vanilla.

Click on the time on the post that you want to reply to, and it takes you there.

dr_spyn said:

Corbyn disatisfaction rates a long long way behind the PM.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/pol_mon_dec_2016_charts.pdf

The turd cannot be polished.

Overall the gap vs May is 47 points - among the 65+ group its double that.....over ninety points

Meanwhile, OGH tweets: Theresa May's net @IpsosMORI satisfaction ratings have dropped from +35% to +15% in just 4 months - so down 20 pts. Still positive though

foxinsoxuk said:

viewcode said:

Where in the name of fuck is the reply button?

On vanilla.

Click on the time on the post that you want to reply to, and it takes you there.

Thank you

They've put a subtle 90s music reference on the front page of one tomorrow's front pages

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/809532032313397249

It's an older reference than that.

http://www.iwm.org.uk/collections/item/object/1122

90s music was so rubbish compared to 80s.

Moses_ said:

When are we going to get quote button back? If it's been mentioned already I am a few threads behind.
Don't like working vanilla particularly.

EDIT I see it is still being mentioned

I don't know what's the matter with it, or whose fault is it.

Barnesian said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Anyone who wants to see a fake news operation in action should watch this about how the whole Syrian insurgency started:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtYvDCEKKTY

Very brave of anyone to participate - the first man to speak was murdered by the rebels some time ago.

Here is another view on how the whole Syrian insurgency started. It is by Robert Kennedy Jr, son of Robert Kennedy, former Attorney General.

http://www.politico.eu/article/why-the-arabs-dont-want-us-in-syria-mideast-conflict-oil-intervention/

It is a long read but gives another perspective on a very messy conflict. The CIA does not come out of it smelling of roses.

It's very good. Worth reading by otherwise sound PBers who think we 'The West' are blameless in this instance.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour plans Jeremy Corbyn relaunch as a leftwing populist

Party leader expected to appear on TV more often as senior figures want to exploit anti-politics mood to beat the Tories

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/15/labour-plans-jeremy-corbyn-relaunch-as-a-leftwing-populist?CMP=twt_gu

I suspect that with this Jezza will be as inept as he is at everything else.

Labour is groping in the right direction though. Red Brexit could prove very popular, particularly when the alternative is libertarianism
.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Liberal Democrat GAIN Blackdown (Taunton Deane) from Conservative.

They are preparing for government as we speak.

What odds on Arlene Foster as next party leader to go? Explosive interviews with Stephen Nolan on Stormont RHI heating scandal on BBC NI now.

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour plans Jeremy Corbyn relaunch as a leftwing populist

Party leader expected to appear on TV more often as senior figures want to exploit anti-politics mood to beat the Tories

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/15/labour-plans-jeremy-corbyn-relaunch-as-a-leftwing-populist?CMP=twt_gu

I suspect that with this Jezza will be as inept as he is at everything else.

Labour is groping in the right direction tbough. Red Brexit could prove very popular, particularly when the alternative is libertarianism
.

I agree with the notion of a Corbyn fightback, wrestling early on in the mud with the "dishonest media" gets you antibodies against their criticism, however there is still a need for personal engagement with people.

Corbyn did that during his 2 successful leadership campaigns, the only period when his numbers went up.

To replicate that success he needs the same elements of his leadership campaign:

Popular policies
Rallies
Wrestling in the mud with the media
A favourite easy target/squeeze toy

As posted earlier , the first time the Conservatives have lost Blackdown ward since it was created in 1973 .

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Labour down by 30.2% to 5.1% in Fife.

They may as well pack up in Scotland

Kezia Dugdale strikes again.

Corbyn should take over SLAB, there is no point of it being an autonomous faction.

Test

Some doubt on the Fife figures - correction due apparently

TheScreamingEagles said:

SNP hold but look at that Scottish Tory surge.

Leven, Kennoway & Largo (Fife) result:
SNP: 49.0% (+8.0)
CON: 24.6% (+17.8)
LDEM: 18.9% (+9.0)
LAB: 5.1% (-30.2)
GRN: 2.4% (+2.4)

Numbers are wrong according to Britain Elects

Leven, Kennoway & Largo (Fife) result:
SNP: 37.0% (-4.1)
LAB: 28.4% (-6.9)
CON: 18.5% (+11.7)
LDEM: 14.3% (+4.3)
GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)
Corrected.

Still a Scottish Tory surge

Leven, Kennoway & Largo (Fife) result:
SNP: 37.0% (-4.1)
LAB: 28.4% (-6.9)
CON: 18.5% (+11.7)
LDEM: 14.3% (+4.3)
GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)
Corrected

EDIT: Gosh - you have to be quick to be first on this site!

Twitter
Britain Elects@britainelects
Leven, Kennoway & Largo (Fife) result:
SNP: 37.0% (-4.1)
LAB: 28.4% (-6.9)
CON: 18.5% (+11.7)
LDEM: 14.3% (+4.3)
GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)
Corrected.



Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 4m4 minutes ago
Numbers reported for Leven, Kennoway & Largo are incorrect. Fife radio station reported them incorrectly. Apologies. Correction coming.

MarkSenior said:

Fake news of Labour death in Scotland

Indeed.

But that's not the result in Fife, surely there are transfers?

"THE TIMES FRONT PAGE: "US election was hacked 'on Putin's command'" #skypapers"

http://www.scoopnest.com/user/SkyNews/809526191141031945

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Some doubt on the Fife figures - correction due apparently

Russian involvement suspected?