politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May now joint 2nd favourite as next party leader to go

first

I don't think any of them will leave - unless they want to - until at least 2018.

Can I get odds anywhere on "none of the above"?

George Osborne is pretty obviously on manoeuvres but my rule of thumb for Tory leadership plots over the past couple of decades is to keep an eye on Francis Maude.

DecrepitJohnL said:

George Osborne is pretty obviously on manoeuvres but my rule of thumb for Tory leadership plots over the past couple of decades is to keep an eye on Francis Maude.

That's Lord Maude these days.

Hmm I reckon the next out will be Corbyn.

But it won't be till after 2020.

Then May.

I wont be betting on this market as I have a fair spread covering next Labour leader and this is potentially another bet where they hold my money for four years.

If I was betting then Corbyn. If Red Len falls then maybe he will be out in 2019.

Corbyn is rightly favourite, although he'll probably last until the GE.

Theresa May is absolutely secure until at least the GE, and, since with Corbyn in place and Labour in chaos she'll probably increase her majority at that GE, she's probably secure for some years after that.

Nicola Sturgeon looks invulnerable, her odds look too short.

No-one is going to challenge Tim Farron for the moment. I expect he'll linger on for quite a while, probably even beyond the GE.

That leaves Paul Nuttall. His odds should be shorter; as a general rule, the half-life of UKIP front-line politicians (unless they are called Nigel) is very short, the party is fissiparous, the party's strategic direction is completely unclear and the much-vaunted move leftwards to challenge Labour won't be to the taste of many Kippers.

The way Theresa May has choreographed a situation where she's portrayed as being under siege from people like Osborne and Morgan has been masterful. Meanwhile the main protagonists for Brexit are punching themselves out.

When it next goes to the people, Theresa May can do a Wilson and stay above the fray, while a diminished Boris/Gove/Farage are left to sell Brexit to the public.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Corbyn is rightly favourite, although he'll probably last until the GE.

Theresa May is absolutely secure until at least the GE, and, since with Corbyn in place and Labour in chaos she'll probably increase her majority at that GE, she's probably secure for some years after that.

Nicola Sturgeon looks invulnerable, her odds look too short.

No-one is going to challenge Tim Farron for the moment. I expect he'll linger on for quite a while, probably even beyond the GE.

That leaves Paul Nuttall. His odds should be shorter; as a general rule, the half-life of UKIP front-line politicians (unless they are called Nigel) is very short, the party is fissiparous, the party's strategic direction is completely unclear and the much-vaunted move leftwards to challenge Labour won't be to the taste of many Kippers.

If UKIP shows any sign of making ground on Labour (or anyone else) you can be certain Farage will want back in. Nuttall is not the man to take UKIP leftwards, he is very dry fiscally and economically.

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I keep on telling she's a bit crap.

Ministers openly mock her. Cf Boris.

People mocked Thatcher, including in her own party. It's not the mocking which will get her but the fact that she does not appear to have a clue what to do and has appointed Ministers who are second/third rate. A good leader has good strong people around them.

I hope I'm wrong because I don't see much of an alternative, either in the Tories or, God help us, in the other parties.

I expect she is forming a view, but we won't find out about it until right at the very end. I suspect she will want to opt out the lot, and then opt back in to the bits she thinks are in the UK national interest but paying a hefty fee to do so.

It will be similar to her position on Brexit: she took months to decide, and when she came out as a reluctant Remainer she did so in a well-thought through and logical speech, albeit her position of withdrawing from the ECHR but not the ECJ made no sense, and she's since backtracked on it.

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ministers openly mock her. Cf Boris.

Oh dear....your hatred of May clearly blinds you to the difference between 'joshing' and 'mockery'......

Just how is Osborne going to close that favourability gap versus May?

Forty eight points, is it?

Calm down dear and read the article by Sam Coates in today's Times.

That's what I was talking about. I said last night Boris was engaging in banter

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I keep on telling she's a bit crap.

Ministers openly mock her. Cf Boris.

People mocked Thatcher, including in her own party. It's not the mocking which will get her but the fact that she does not appear to have a clue what to do and has appointed Ministers who are second/third rate. A good leader has good strong people around them.

I hope I'm wrong because I don't see much of an alternative, either in the Tories or, God help us, in the other parties.

I expect she is forming a view, but we won't find out about it until right at the very end. I suspect she will want to opt out the lot, and then opt back in to the bits she thinks are in the UK national interest but paying a hefty fee to do so.

It will be similar to her position on Brexit: she took months to decide, and when she came out as a reluctant Remainer she did so in a well-thought through and logical speech, albeit her position of withdrawing from the ECHR but not the ECJ made no sense, and she's since backtracked on it.

This may be of interest:

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/12/andrew-lilico-hidden-obscure-even-unformed-nonsense-mays-brexit-negotiation-strategy-is-clear.html

Richard_Nabavi said:

Osborne is manoeuvering with a view to a return to front-line politics, not the leadership.

Correct. He voted for the Article 50 government timetable, and was speaking intelligently and thoughtfully about foreign affairs yesterday.

That wasn't an accident.

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Osborne is manoeuvering with a view to a return to front-line politics, not the leadership.

Correct. He voted for the Article 50 government timetable, and was speaking intelligently and thoughtfully about foreign affairs yesterday.

That wasn't an accident.

Indeed.

NickPalmer said:

Like The White Rabbit, I think they all look pretty secure. Nuttall is the one who seems least solid, simply because he's new, with quite a lot of expectations, in a party noted for leadership instability. If he gets nowhere with his "seize the WWC" project I can imagine his running into choppy waters next year.

May issn't remotely near the defenestration stage. Corbyn's opponents have given up on direct challenge before 2020. Farron and Sturgeon are broadly satisfying their members.

By the way, expect some fresh discussion of Schengen in February. The Danish temporary border controls expire then, and the Danish Government has to either drop them or withdraw from Schengen. Government circles are inclined to quietly drop them, with some polling evidence that Danes are less fussed than they were (47% would like to keep the controls, but that's down from 66% a little while ago).

The Danes in February? Sounds like an amuse-bouche before the FR elections and the potential end of the Euro.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Osborne is manoeuvering with a view to a return to front-line politics, not the leadership.

If he makes it back to the cabinet it will double the number of its above-mediocre members.

AlastairMeeks said:

As a matter of statistics, since the year 2000:

Labour have had three changes of leader
The Conservatives have had four changes of leader
The Lib Dems have had three changes of leader
The SNP have had three changes of leader
UKIP have had 750 changes of leader

On that basis, the 11/4 on Paul Nuttall looks like a fair bet to me.

750 ?

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

As a matter of statistics, since the year 2000:

Labour have had three changes of leader
The Conservatives have had four changes of leader
The Lib Dems have had three changes of leader
The SNP have had three changes of leader
UKIP have had 750 changes of leader

On that basis, the 11/4 on Paul Nuttall looks like a fair bet to me.

750 ?

Something like that.

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

As a matter of statistics, since the year 2000:

Labour have had three changes of leader
The Conservatives have had four changes of leader
The Lib Dems have had three changes of leader
The SNP have had three changes of leader
UKIP have had 750 changes of leader

On that basis, the 11/4 on Paul Nuttall looks like a fair bet to me.

750 ?

It's easy to lose count - and some of those are duplicates ;-).

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

As a matter of statistics, since the year 2000:

Labour have had three changes of leader
The Conservatives have had four changes of leader
The Lib Dems have had three changes of leader
The SNP have had three changes of leader
UKIP have had 750 changes of leader

On that basis, the 11/4 on Paul Nuttall looks like a fair bet to me.

750 ?

Something like that.

If you include all the times Farage went to bed planning to pack it in and then woke up and forgot about it, it's probably an underestimate.

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I keep on telling she's a bit crap.

Ministers openly mock her. Cf Boris.

People mocked Thatcher, including in her own party. It's not the mocking which will get her but the fact that she does not appear to have a clue what to do and has appointed Ministers who are second/third rate. A good leader has good strong people around them.

I hope I'm wrong because I don't see much of an alternative, either in the Tories or, God help us, in the other parties.

I expect she is forming a view, but we won't find out about it until right at the very end. I suspect she will want to opt out the lot, and then opt back in to the bits she thinks are in the UK national interest but paying a hefty fee to do so.

It will be similar to her position on Brexit: she took months to decide, and when she came out as a reluctant Remainer she did so in a well-thought through and logical speech, albeit her position of withdrawing from the ECHR but not the ECJ made no sense, and she's since backtracked on it.

That may be true but is missing one vital (to me) element. She needs to bring people with her. That takes courage and imagination, the willingness to say tough things, even to her own supporters and the ability to communicate. Thinking things through on her own and making logical decisions will not be enough, admirable as they may be.

The one thing which has bedeviled our European policy throughout the years is that the politicians have not brought people with them. And this has resulted in people (some anyway) thinking/feeling that Europe is something done to them not for them and done behind their backs. That lack of transparency has been fatal to the European cause and it risks being fatal to our non-EU future too.

Whatever the strategy is the people need to be and feel involved. That is the only way that she will be able to persuade those who won't get all that they want to feel involved and that they were given a chance to make their case.

UKIP - Six

So going purely off leader changes since '00, the denominator is 19.

UKIP 3.17
Tories 4.75
Lab 6.33
LD 6.33
SNP 6.33

Looking ahead, UKIP are definitely the next party heading for "disappointment" with Nuttall a long way behind the Labour candidate (Leigh).

So UKIP is probably the value, but its far enough away & uncertain enough that I won't be tieing my money up.

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

logical_song said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

As a matter of statistics, since the year 2000:

Labour have had three changes of leader
The Conservatives have had four changes of leader
The Lib Dems have had three changes of leader
The SNP have had three changes of leader
UKIP have had 750 changes of leader

On that basis, the 11/4 on Paul Nuttall looks like a fair bet to me.

750 ?

It's easy to lose count - and some of those are duplicates ;-).

Titford 00-02
Knapman 02-06
Farage 06-09
Pearson 09-10
Farage 10-16
James '16
Farage 16 (Acting)
Nutall '16-

You missed Evans for five days in May 2015

Makes UKIP 2.85 off of that analysis then.

The rare Green pushmepullyu may not last long either.

Apparently the EU Parliament is falling into bitter conflict with the Council of Nation States.

Verhofstadt angrily attacks the Council stating that if the Council think the negotiations will sideline the Parliament he will start his own Brexit talks.

As far as I am aware Theresa May will only deal with the Council so fractures between Parliament and the Council are going to intensify. This is evidence of a looming warfare between the various parts of the EU about how they deal with Brexit

You really could not make this up. They are like children fighting in a school playground and it would be funny if it was not so serious

NickPalmer said:

rottenborough said:

The Danes in February? Sounds like an amuse-bouche before the FR elections and the potential end of the Euro.

Yes, though probably only a fresh influx of migrants would stir the headlines. At present only the Danish People's Party (=UKIP) wants to retain the restrictions.

Meanwhile, German opinion is drifting - no obvious mjor shifts for the last year or so. Merkel's decision to stand again hasn't changed anything either way, though the CDU has been off the bottom and AfD a few points down for a while:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

The Con/Lab/LD/UKIP figures are remarkably similar to CDU/SPD/FDP/AfD.

AlastairMeeks said:

The biggest point is the last point. The EU doesn't seem to be drawing up a strategy, which means that its strategy is emerging by default. That's bad news for everyone who wants Brexit to happen in an orderly manner, albeit only too predictable.

When both sides think 'it's not us, it's you', it can't lead to a sensible compromise.

The EU is more correct in their assessment than we are, which means it ultimately comes down to whether the pro-Brexit political consensus will hold throughout the negotiations, and who will pay the political price for the betrayal.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

You really could not make this up. They are like children fighting in a school playground and it would be funny if it was not so serious

That's politics. And at a European level it's infinitely preferable to children fighting in the fields of Belgium.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, the deliberately complicated and opaque nature of the EU does rather leave it open to this sort of power struggle.

You do wonder if this will tear the EU apart - serious strains are becoming obvious

Verhofstadt was furious when addressing the Parliament today

Pulpstar said:

13-8 even !

As I said, 11/4 on Mr Nuttall looks like a value bet.

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

13-8 even !

As I said, 11/4 on Mr Nuttall looks like a value bet.

"Trader" is having a good think about this now.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Apparently the EU Parliament is falling into bitter conflict with the Council of Nation States.

Verhofstadt angrily attacks the Council stating that if the Council think the negotiations will sideline the Parliament he will start his own Brexit talks.

As far as I am aware Theresa May will only deal with the Council so fractures between Parliament and the Council are going to intensify. This is evidence of a looming warfare between the various parts of the EU about how they deal with Brexit

You really could not make this up. They are like children fighting in a school playground and it would be funny if it was not so serious

The serious bit is that the EP has to ratify the deal at the end of the process so its views do have to be listened to (though individual MEPs don't necessarily, if they're unrepresentative).

https://twitter.com/NoahBonsey/status/808987184019673088

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/NoahBonsey/status/808987184019673088

The blood will be seen to be on Russia's hands.

NickPalmer said:

david_herdson said:

NickPalmer said:

rottenborough said:

The Danes in February? Sounds like an amuse-bouche before the FR elections and the potential end of the Euro.

Yes, though probably only a fresh influx of migrants would stir the headlines. At present only the Danish People's Party (=UKIP) wants to retain the restrictions.

Meanwhile, German opinion is drifting - no obvious mjor shifts for the last year or so. Merkel's decision to stand again hasn't changed anything either way, though the CDU has been off the bottom and AfD a few points down for a while:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

The Con/Lab/LD/UKIP figures are remarkably similar to CDU/SPD/FDP/AfD.

True. It's the common European polity, innit

I actually do think that therre are quite strong similarities in how popular opinion is shaping across Western Europe. Fairly solid traditional conservatives, fairly weak social democrats and liberals, a significant push from the far left and the nationalist right but not enough to win. The traditional conservatives tend to win from this pattern, more by default than by triumphant enthusiasm.

Yeah well, I was one arguing before the referendum that a European polity could be fairly easily forged and that it was a great error not to try.

I agree with that analysis re popular opinion and in many ways it's not too surprising that countries facing similar issues with relatively similar political, social and economic cultures (and party structures) will end up with something not too dissimilar in terms of public support.

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I keep on telling she's a bit crap.

Ministers openly mock her. Cf Boris.

People mocked Thatcher, including in her own party. It's not the mocking which will get her but the fact that she does not appear to have a clue what to do and has appointed Ministers who are second/third rate. A good leader has good strong people around them.

I hope I'm wrong because I don't see much of an alternative, either in the Tories or, God help us, in the other parties.

I expect she is forming a view, but we won't find out about it until right at the very end. I suspect she will want to opt out the lot, and then opt back in to the bits she thinks are in the UK national interest but paying a hefty fee to do so.

It will be similar to her position on Brexit: she took months to decide, and when she came out as a reluctant Remainer she did so in a well-thought through and logical speech, albeit her position of withdrawing from the ECHR but not the ECJ made no sense, and she's since backtracked on it.

That may be true but is missing one vital (to me) element. She needs to bring people with her. That takes courage and imagination, the willingness to say tough things, even to her own supporters and the ability to communicate. Thinking things through on her own and making logical decisions will not be enough, admirable as they may be.

The one thing which has bedeviled our European policy throughout the years is that the politicians have not brought people with them. And this has resulted in people (some anyway) thinking/feeling that Europe is something done to them not for them and done behind their backs. That lack of transparency has been fatal to the European cause and it risks being fatal to our non-EU future too.

Whatever the strategy is the people need to be and feel involved. That is the only way that she will be able to persuade those who won't get all that they want to feel involved and that they were given a chance to make their case.

Yes. But I doubt it will be different this time.

Mr. Jessop, sectarian?

Islam and Muslims aren't a race.

Mr. Herdson, it would certainly be interesting if the UK and EU negotiated a reasonable deal, the EU Parliament voted it down and time ran out.

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The FT Brussels blog has news about the EU's negotiating team that has something for everyone:

https://www.ft.com/content/15492a24-a7f8-3bf8-a0aa-b0296205d147

The Commission is set to be appointed as negotiator for the EU (ie Michel Barnier), but with minders from the national governments. The European Parliament looks likely to be shut out completely as things stand.

The biggest point is the last point. The EU doesn't seem to be drawing up a strategy, which means that its strategy is emerging by default. That's bad news for everyone who wants Brexit to happen in an orderly manner, albeit only too predictable.

Presume there's no way round the firewall on that?

Google "Do the EU-27 need a strategy?"

TheScreamingEagles said:

Could not make this shit up

Jeremy Corbyn faced a furious row today as it emerged he may appoint the head of Sinn Fein’s London office to work in his office.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-in-furious-row-over-plan-to-hire-sinn-fein-for-his-office-a3420041.html

Ha, ha.

He is doing it on purpose, surely. He wants to be put out of his misery.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, sectarian?

Islam and Muslims aren't a race.

Mr. Herdson, it would certainly be interesting if the UK and EU negotiated a reasonable deal, the EU Parliament voted it down and time ran out.

The timing is quite interesting too given that voting on Brexit is likely to be one of the last things that MEPs do this parliament assuming a March 2019 deadline before May 2019 polls. Not sure how that affects the psychology of the vote.

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Could not make this shit up

Jeremy Corbyn faced a furious row today as it emerged he may appoint the head of Sinn Fein’s London office to work in his office.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-in-furious-row-over-plan-to-hire-sinn-fein-for-his-office-a3420041.html

Ha, ha.

He is doing it on purpose, surely. He wants to be put out of his misery.

You hope.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Could not make this shit up

Jeremy Corbyn faced a furious row today as it emerged he may appoint the head of Sinn Fein’s London office to work in his office.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-in-furious-row-over-plan-to-hire-sinn-fein-for-his-office-a3420041.html

Well, he is consistent.

Did Milne ever get the boot?

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Could not make this shit up

Jeremy Corbyn faced a furious row today as it emerged he may appoint the head of Sinn Fein’s London office to work in his office.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-in-furious-row-over-plan-to-hire-sinn-fein-for-his-office-a3420041.html

Ha, ha.

He is doing it on purpose, surely. He wants to be put out of his misery.

BetVictor will be paying me a final sum (*Waves goodbye to the account) in January based off of backing Corbyn to keep his job.

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

I just had an interesting experience. I walked back from a play group with a lady I vaguely know - our children sometimes play together. On the way she gave a rather interesting (ahem) racist (*) rant against Muslims.

I listened for a while, then told her my wife is Turkish. She rather rapidly changed the subject!

What was most interesting is that the lady I was talking to is a black Nigerian immigrant.

Given the situation in Nigeria with Boko Haram, I can imagine how she feels. But her conversation strayed far from what I would call reasonable comment.

Racism is much more complex than white against black.

(*) I'd class it as racist as it went away from arguable individual points, and became a screed about the traits 'they' have and exhibit as a whole.

You know you can't be racist against a religion, right?

A friend of mine is an Indian catholic who has family in Pakistan, he also has some negative views of Islam.

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, sectarian?

Islam and Muslims aren't a race.

(Snip)

I think that's a fairly disgusting point to make, especially given the continued redefinition of 'Islamaphobic' that occurs on here.

This says it well:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/craig-considine/muslims-are-not-a-race_b_8591660.html

Both race and religion are "protected characteristics" under eaual rights law, so the distinction is unnecessary. Indeed when I lived in NZ there was a brilliant euphemism for racism (in the NZ situation usually Pakeha vs Polynesian) of "cultural insensitivity". I think this covers the ground better.

It sounds as if your Nigerian acquaintance was certainly stereotyping Muslim culture, perhaps understandably bearing in mind the history of sectarian conflict in Nigeria that long predates Boko Haram, and usually with Christians as victims.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Could not make this shit up

Jeremy Corbyn faced a furious row today as it emerged he may appoint the head of Sinn Fein’s London office to work in his office.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-in-furious-row-over-plan-to-hire-sinn-fein-for-his-office-a3420041.html

Progressive rainbow coalition against Tories.