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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May now joint 2nd favourite as next party leader to go
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May now joint 2nd favourite as next party leader to go
William Hill next party leader out betting with changes since Sunday 2/1 Corbyn 11/4 (5/2) Nuttall 11/4 (7/2) May 6/1 Sturgeon 7/1 (6/1) Farron
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Nobody wants to be a six minute PM. She may get support from those who would happily knife her a day after the next General Election, on the basis any PM going through the EU negotiations would get a lot of flak.
Whoever comes in right after that can blame problems on their predecessor's ineptness, and will claim any success as their own.
Can I get odds anywhere on "none of the above"?
Ministers openly mock her. Cf Boris.
I hope I'm wrong because I don't see much of an alternative, either in the Tories or, God help us, in the other parties.
But it won't be till after 2020.
Then May.
If I was betting then Corbyn. If Red Len falls then maybe he will be out in 2019.
Just how is Osborne going to close that favourability gap versus May?
Forty eight points, is it?
Theresa May is absolutely secure until at least the GE, and, since with Corbyn in place and Labour in chaos she'll probably increase her majority at that GE, she's probably secure for some years after that.
Nicola Sturgeon looks invulnerable, her odds look too short.
No-one is going to challenge Tim Farron for the moment. I expect he'll linger on for quite a while, probably even beyond the GE.
That leaves Paul Nuttall. His odds should be shorter; as a general rule, the half-life of UKIP front-line politicians (unless they are called Nigel) is very short, the party is fissiparous, the party's strategic direction is completely unclear and the much-vaunted move leftwards to challenge Labour won't be to the taste of many Kippers.
If Nuttall lasts until 2020 he'll be doing well - 'UKIP Leaders who are not Farage' tend not to have a long shelf life.....
When it next goes to the people, Theresa May can do a Wilson and stay above the fray, while a diminished Boris/Gove/Farage are left to sell Brexit to the public.
He's the only one I can see going before a general election, aside from health reasons.
It will be similar to her position on Brexit: she took months to decide, and when she came out as a reluctant Remainer she did so in a well-thought through and logical speech, albeit her position of withdrawing from the ECHR but not the ECJ made no sense, and she's since backtracked on it.
That's what I was talking about. I said last night Boris was engaging in banter
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/12/andrew-lilico-hidden-obscure-even-unformed-nonsense-mays-brexit-negotiation-strategy-is-clear.html
May issn't remotely near the defenestration stage. Corbyn's opponents have given up on direct challenge before 2020. Farron and Sturgeon are broadly satisfying their members.
By the way, expect some fresh discussion of Schengen in February. The Danish temporary border controls expire then, and the Danish Government has to either drop them or withdraw from Schengen. Government circles are inclined to quietly drop them, with some polling evidence that Danes are less fussed than they were (47% would like to keep the controls, but that's down from 66% a little while ago).
That wasn't an accident.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/how-russia-wins-an-election-214524
Labour have had three changes of leader
The Conservatives have had four changes of leader
The Lib Dems have had three changes of leader
The SNP have had three changes of leader
UKIP have had 750 changes of leader
On that basis, the 11/4 on Paul Nuttall looks like a fair bet to me.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/12/no-we-have-not-caused-the-agony-of-aleppo.html
Meanwhile, German opinion is drifting - no obvious mjor shifts for the last year or so. Merkel's decision to stand again hasn't changed anything either way, though the CDU has been off the bottom and AfD a few points down for a while:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
The one thing which has bedeviled our European policy throughout the years is that the politicians have not brought people with them. And this has resulted in people (some anyway) thinking/feeling that Europe is something done to them not for them and done behind their backs. That lack of transparency has been fatal to the European cause and it risks being fatal to our non-EU future too.
Whatever the strategy is the people need to be and feel involved. That is the only way that she will be able to persuade those who won't get all that they want to feel involved and that they were given a chance to make their case.
Knapman 02-06
Farage 06-09
Pearson 09-10
Farage 10-16
James '16
Farage 16 (Acting)
Nutall '16-
https://www.ft.com/content/15492a24-a7f8-3bf8-a0aa-b0296205d147
The Commission is set to be appointed as negotiator for the EU (ie Michel Barnier), but with minders from the national governments. The European Parliament looks likely to be shut out completely as things stand.
The biggest point is the last point. The EU doesn't seem to be drawing up a strategy, which means that its strategy is emerging by default. That's bad news for everyone who wants Brexit to happen in an orderly manner, albeit only too predictable.
So going purely off leader changes since '00, the denominator is 19.
UKIP 3.17
Tories 4.75
Lab 6.33
LD 6.33
SNP 6.33
The first quarter of Q1 2017 might define her premiership.
So UKIP is probably the value, but its far enough away & uncertain enough that I won't be tieing my money up.
Verhofstadt angrily attacks the Council stating that if the Council think the negotiations will sideline the Parliament he will start his own Brexit talks.
As far as I am aware Theresa May will only deal with the Council so fractures between Parliament and the Council are going to intensify. This is evidence of a looming warfare between the various parts of the EU about how they deal with Brexit
You really could not make this up. They are like children fighting in a school playground and it would be funny if it was not so serious
The EU is more correct in their assessment than we are, which means it ultimately comes down to whether the pro-Brexit political consensus will hold throughout the negotiations, and who will pay the political price for the betrayal.
Verhofstadt was furious when addressing the Parliament today
I actually do think that therre are quite strong similarities in how popular opinion is shaping across Western Europe. Fairly solid traditional conservatives, fairly weak social democrats and liberals, a significant push from the far left and the nationalist right but not enough to win. The traditional conservatives tend to win from this pattern, more by default than by triumphant enthusiasm.
But presumably how it is planned to consult the parliament on negotiations, and what that will mean.
I just had an interesting experience. I walked back from a play group with a lady I vaguely know - our children sometimes play together. On the way she gave a rather interesting (ahem) racist (*) rant against Muslims.
I listened for a while, then told her my wife is Turkish. She rather rapidly changed the subject!
What was most interesting is that the lady I was talking to is a black Nigerian immigrant.
Given the situation in Nigeria with Boko Haram, I can imagine how she feels. But her conversation strayed far from what I would call reasonable comment.
Racism is much more complex than white against black.
(*) I'd class it as racist as it went away from arguable individual points, and became a screed about the traits 'they' have and exhibit as a whole.
I agree with that analysis re popular opinion and in many ways it's not too surprising that countries facing similar issues with relatively similar political, social and economic cultures (and party structures) will end up with something not too dissimilar in terms of public support.
Jeremy Corbyn faced a furious row today as it emerged he may appoint the head of Sinn Fein’s London office to work in his office.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-in-furious-row-over-plan-to-hire-sinn-fein-for-his-office-a3420041.html
The EU parliament will ratify the deal. Verhofstadt's job is to ensure there are no upsets.
We need to remember this kind of deal is daily fare for the EU. Our side is going to learn the hard way. A very hard way judging by their attitudes to the negotiation so far.
Islam and Muslims aren't a race.
Mr. Herdson, it would certainly be interesting if the UK and EU negotiated a reasonable deal, the EU Parliament voted it down and time ran out.
He is doing it on purpose, surely. He wants to be put out of his misery.
Oh, I see.
Did Milne ever get the boot?
This says it well:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/craig-considine/muslims-are-not-a-race_b_8591660.html
Edited extra bit: if your disgust was relating to the 'sectarian' part, I was searching for a word that could mean bigotry or dislike against (a) religion/religious group.
EDIT - Black Evangelical Christians for example.
A friend of mine is an Indian catholic who has family in Pakistan, he also has some negative views of Islam.
It sounds as if your Nigerian acquaintance was certainly stereotyping Muslim culture, perhaps understandably bearing in mind the history of sectarian conflict in Nigeria that long predates Boko Haram, and usually with Christians as victims.
It's a crass, stupid point to make. Then again, you're fortunate that the chances are you'll never become a target of such abuse.