politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What Corbyn’s re-election and the huge increase in membership
Comments
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williamglenn said:
That's the operative clause. You still think we're leaving. The reality is that we haven't yet even made a constitutional decision to leave, let alone left.MaxPB said:
Once we've left...williamglenn said:
That's the wrong way to interpret the figure. Almost a third of people in one of the oldest democracies in the world want to overturn the result of an election. That shows the depth of support for remaining in the EU, and it will only grow as the intractable problems of Brexit stubbornly refuse to go away. That's the bitter reality for starry-eyed Brexiteers.SeanT said:
Yes, remarkable. Only 31% now want to stay in the EU, after the vote.williamglenn said:
From the same poll: "Asked what outcome they would most like to see, remaining in the EU is picked by 31% of people, a “hard Brexit” falling back onto WTO rules is picked by 26%, a Canada style deal by 26%, and EFTA membership by 17%. Continuing EU membership is the first choice of most of those who voted Remain in June, followed by EFTA membership."SeanT said:Moreover, recent polling shows that 68% of Brits, Leave or Remain, think we should just get on with Brexiting.
That's the bitter reality for hardcore Remoaners. The country is firmly against them.
The "constitutional decision" was in the form of a referendum (you might have noticed it - earlier this year?)
Given to the people by the UK parliament.
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I was right about Trump. I may yet be proved right about this.MaxPB said:
You are completely delusional.williamglenn said:
That's the operative clause. You still think we're leaving. The reality is that we haven't yet even made a constitutional decision to leave, let alone left.MaxPB said:
Once we've left...williamglenn said:
That's the wrong way to interpret the figure. Almost a third of people in one of the oldest democracies in the world want to overturn the result of an election. That shows the depth of support for remaining in the EU, and it will only grow as the intractable problems of Brexit stubbornly refuse to go away. That's the bitter reality for starry-eyed Brexiteers.SeanT said:
Yes, remarkable. Only 31% now want to stay in the EU, after the vote.williamglenn said:
From the same poll: "Asked what outcome they would most like to see, remaining in the EU is picked by 31% of people, a “hard Brexit” falling back onto WTO rules is picked by 26%, a Canada style deal by 26%, and EFTA membership by 17%. Continuing EU membership is the first choice of most of those who voted Remain in June, followed by EFTA membership."SeanT said:Moreover, recent polling shows that 68% of Brits, Leave or Remain, think we should just get on with Brexiting.
That's the bitter reality for hardcore Remoaners. The country is firmly against them.0 -
Lib Dems: 1FF43 said:I would divide Brexit opinions as follows:
1. Bad. Bad. Bad. Brexit is a bad idea and we should do everything we can to stop it. The Tim Farrons.
2. We are we are. The country has voted for Brexit so we need to make it happen with the least damage possible. Phil Hammond.
3. Brexit will be great Nothing to worry about. We have a great future in front of us. No need to compromise or to do deals. We will get everything we want. David Davis.
4. We're being robbed The EU, Remoaners, the liberal elite will do everything to ensure Brexit will be a failure. Nigel Farage
Tories: 2.5
UKIP: 4
Labour: ?0 -
Delusional.williamglenn said:
I was right about Trump. I may yet be proved right about this.MaxPB said:
You are completely delusional.williamglenn said:
That's the operative clause. You still think we're leaving. The reality is that we haven't yet even made a constitutional decision to leave, let alone left.MaxPB said:
Once we've left...williamglenn said:
That's the wrong way to interpret the figure. Almost a third of people in one of the oldest democracies in the world want to overturn the result of an election. That shows the depth of support for remaining in the EU, and it will only grow as the intractable problems of Brexit stubbornly refuse to go away. That's the bitter reality for starry-eyed Brexiteers.SeanT said:
Yes, remarkable. Only 31% now want to stay in the EU, after the vote.williamglenn said:
From the same poll: "Asked what outcome they would most like to see, remaining in the EU is picked by 31% of people, a “hard Brexit” falling back onto WTO rules is picked by 26%, a Canada style deal by 26%, and EFTA membership by 17%. Continuing EU membership is the first choice of most of those who voted Remain in June, followed by EFTA membership."SeanT said:Moreover, recent polling shows that 68% of Brits, Leave or Remain, think we should just get on with Brexiting.
That's the bitter reality for hardcore Remoaners. The country is firmly against them.0 -
0
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Lewis backed Trident, he and Nandy are too right-wing for the Labour membership in their current mood but too leftwing for the electorate as a wholeTissue_Price said:
It will be the left that does for Corbyn in the end. We might be looking at a Lewis - Nandy contest.rottenborough said:I have just topped up by bets on Clive Lewis being next Labour leader. Currently on BF he is just ahead of Starmer as the two favourites.
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Who would you be backing?HYUFD said:
Lewis backed Trident, he and Nandy are too right-wing for the Labour membership in their current mood but too leftwing for the electorate as a wholeTissue_Price said:
It will be the left that does for Corbyn in the end. We might be looking at a Lewis - Nandy contest.rottenborough said:I have just topped up by bets on Clive Lewis being next Labour leader. Currently on BF he is just ahead of Starmer as the two favourites.
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Labour is 1.5. Wolmar who was quoted earlier is a (1) while Kier Starmer is a (2), like Hammond.Tissue_Price said:
Lib Dems: 1FF43 said:I would divide Brexit opinions as follows:
1. Bad. Bad. Bad. Brexit is a bad idea and we should do everything we can to stop it. The Tim Farrons.
2. We are we are. The country has voted for Brexit so we need to make it happen with the least damage possible. Phil Hammond.
3. Brexit will be great Nothing to worry about. We have a great future in front of us. No need to compromise or to do deals. We will get everything we want. David Davis.
4. We're being robbed The EU, Remoaners, the liberal elite will do everything to ensure Brexit will be a failure. Nigel Farage
Tories: 2.5
UKIP: 4
Labour: ?0 -
But we still don't know what sort of Brexit we'll get. Would you be happy to end up with the hard Brexit backed by only 26%?SeanT said:
Sure. I don't want hard Brexit either.logical_song said:
But only 26% want a hard Brexit.SeanT said:
Yes, remarkable. Only 31% now want to stay in the EU, after the vote.williamglenn said:
From the same poll: "Asked what outcome they would most like to see, remaining in the EU is picked by 31% of people, a “hard Brexit” falling back onto WTO rules is picked by 26%, a Canada style deal by 26%, and EFTA membership by 17%. Continuing EU membership is the first choice of most of those who voted Remain in June, followed by EFTA membership."SeanT said:Moreover, recent polling shows that 68% of Brits, Leave or Remain, think we should just get on with Brexiting.
That's the bitter reality for hardcore Remoaners. The country is firmly against them.
Incidentally these stats tally with my personal experience: most of my Remainer friends have accepted the vote, and - reluctantly or not - decided we must get on with it. Many of them recognise that ignoring the vote, or reversing it, would be far more damaging to British democracy and politics, and therefore Britain iself, than any economic harm done by Leaving.
The diehard Remainers are a fast dwindling minority. But noisy.0 -
We will make a 'constitutionally valid' decision to Leave, although I'd argue what you're really arguing for is parliamentary ratification of a democratic mandate, the only question is how long it takes and to what extent it binds HMG in negotiations.williamglenn said:
I was right about Trump. I may yet be proved right about this.MaxPB said:
You are completely delusional.williamglenn said:
That's the operative clause. You still think we're leaving. The reality is that we haven't yet even made a constitutional decision to leave, let alone left.MaxPB said:
Once we've left...williamglenn said:
That's the wrong way to interpret the figure. Almost a third of people in one of the oldest democracies in the world want to overturn the result of an election. That shows the depth of support for remaining in the EU, and it will only grow as the intractable problems of Brexit stubbornly refuse to go away. That's the bitter reality for starry-eyed Brexiteers.SeanT said:
Yes, remarkable. Only 31% now want to stay in the EU, after the vote.williamglenn said:
From the same poll: "Asked what outcome they would most like to see, remaining in the EU is picked by 31% of people, a “hard Brexit” falling back onto WTO rules is picked by 26%, a Canada style deal by 26%, and EFTA membership by 17%. Continuing EU membership is the first choice of most of those who voted Remain in June, followed by EFTA membership."SeanT said:Moreover, recent polling shows that 68% of Brits, Leave or Remain, think we should just get on with Brexiting.
That's the bitter reality for hardcore Remoaners. The country is firmly against them.
I'm of the view an amended Government bill will pass the Commons by end March next year and the Lords will debate it but not block it.0 -
Hard Brexit sounds like something that is about to send the overhead luggage banging out of the holders.0
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None as I back May, however Umunna would be Labour's best bet in my view if and when Corbyn loses and if Labour bothers to try and winTissue_Price said:
Who would you be backing?HYUFD said:
Lewis backed Trident, he and Nandy are too right-wing for the Labour membership in their current mood but too leftwing for the electorate as a wholeTissue_Price said:
It will be the left that does for Corbyn in the end. We might be looking at a Lewis - Nandy contest.rottenborough said:I have just topped up by bets on Clive Lewis being next Labour leader. Currently on BF he is just ahead of Starmer as the two favourites.
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Yes but that's just your own wishful view of what you think might constitute an actual opposition.HYUFD said:
None as I back May, however Umunna would be Labour's best bet in my view if and when Corbyn loses and if Labour bothers to try and winTissue_Price said:
Who would you be backing?HYUFD said:
Lewis backed Trident, he and Nandy are too right-wing for the Labour membership in their current mood but too leftwing for the electorate as a wholeTissue_Price said:
It will be the left that does for Corbyn in the end. We might be looking at a Lewis - Nandy contest.rottenborough said:I have just topped up by bets on Clive Lewis being next Labour leader. Currently on BF he is just ahead of Starmer as the two favourites.
Who do you think will ACTUALLY become next Labour leader.0 -
Tillerson, the new Secretary of State, is staunchly pro Putin so expect the U.S. to shift from the Obama Kerry years and for Trump Tillerson to come in behind Assad against all rebel forces, not just ISISSeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)0 -
The West sold these Arab nations on a dream that never existed. We riled them up and made them topple or try and topple relatively friendly dictators in favour of democracy only for them to be taken over by Islamists and terrorists. From the beginning we should have been talking them into negotiated settlements, a military victory was never possible.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)0 -
If the current view is 68/32 in favour of Leave, maybe we should have that second referendum if only to put the Remoaners firmly back in their boxes!0
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Is he really staunch Putin? Or was he just an oil exec who realised there was money to be made from cosying up to the leader of Russia?HYUFD said:
Tillerson, the new Secretary of State, is staunchly pro Putin so expect the U.S. to shift from the Obama Kerry years and for Trump Tillerson to come in behind Assad against all rebel forces, not just ISISSeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
I've met Rex twice, and don't think he has any strong political views at all, except what was best for Exxon. If there had been dollars in opposing Putin, he's have opposed Putin.
I would imagine the same pragmatism will flow over to his new role.0 -
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)0 -
If you'd know you were talking to the future Secretary of State you probably would have asked different questions.rcs1000 said:I've met Rex twice, and don't think he has any strong political views at all, except what was best for Exxon. If there had been dollars in opposing Putin, he's have opposed Putin.
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Unfortunately I have to agree with you. It makes me sick.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
Ultimately the Arab world will need to establish a liberal politics, as Europe did eventually after the failed revolutions of 1848. European history shows it will be long and bloody. Egypt will be key, I think. It's the biggest Arab country and the one most open to ideas0 -
Off Topic but interesting non the less.
This is an exert from Jim Callaghan's 1976 Labour Party Conference speech:
"As to the numbers who come here, I have never wavered from the view that in a small and highly-populated country there is a limit to the number of immigrants we can absorb. Therefore strict control over immigration is necessary, subject to honouring our commitments, and Britain will do that."
Seems almost incredible a Labour Prime Minister stood up and made this remark...0 -
No I don't think so. It's Obama's fault for letting those young Arabs believe that democracy was a probable or even possible outcome from the Arab spring. He should have got everyone round the table and had a negotiated settlement, instead he fanned their flames and toppled Mubarak, Gaddafi and tried with Assad which we can see now was a disaster.Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)0 -
He received a medal from Putin, he will be a major contrast to Kerry. The Trump administration will dump any remaining support for rebels in Syria, realpolitik will see Assad secure now Aleppo has fallen and both the U.S. and Russia will focus on ISIS and Al Nusrarcs1000 said:
Is he really staunch Putin? Or was he just an oil exec who realised there was money to be made from cosying up to the leader of Russia?HYUFD said:
Tillerson, the new Secretary of State, is staunchly pro Putin so expect the U.S. to shift from the Obama Kerry years and for Trump Tillerson to come in behind Assad against all rebel forces, not just ISISSeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
I've met Rex twice, and don't think he has any strong political views at all, except what was best for Exxon. If there had been dollars in opposing Putin, he's have opposed Putin.
I would imagine the same pragmatism will flow over to his new role.0 -
31% wanting to stay in vs 26% wanting hard brexit is not a good poll for those opposing hard brexit. I'm surprised the gap is so smalllogical_song said:
But only 26% want a hard Brexit.SeanT said:
Yes, remarkable. Only 31% now want to stay in the EU, after the vote.williamglenn said:
From the same poll: "Asked what outcome they would most like to see, remaining in the EU is picked by 31% of people, a “hard Brexit” falling back onto WTO rules is picked by 26%, a Canada style deal by 26%, and EFTA membership by 17%. Continuing EU membership is the first choice of most of those who voted Remain in June, followed by EFTA membership."SeanT said:Moreover, recent polling shows that 68% of Brits, Leave or Remain, think we should just get on with Brexiting.
That's the bitter reality for hardcore Remoaners. The country is firmly against them.0 -
Backing secularism is what's needed, not liberalism/democracy. We should back secular dictators in favour of an Islamist democratic rabble. Over time the hard-line tendencies can be stamped out of the population, either through labour camps (China) or gulags (USSR). It's absolutely horrible, but I don't see any other option.SeanT said:
One other thing about Aleppo: it's difficult to see how Donald Trump could be a WORSE president than Barack Obama, when it comes to US Foreign Policy.MaxPB said:
The West sold these Arab nations on a dream that never existed. We riled them up and made them topple or try and topple relatively friendly dictators in favour of democracy only for them to be taken over by Islamists and terrorists. From the beginning we should have been talking them into negotiated settlements, a military victory was never possible.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
I guess Trump could start a nuclear war, but short of that....
It was bad luck for Obama that he took office just as America's relative decline really kicked in, but he still managed to make America look bumbling, incoherent, and weak.0 -
I would say I sympathise but then by the same logic you could ask how much money it costs a local authority to run elections, and what else could they do with the money? Democracy and transparency come at a price. And did they actually answer the drawing pins question?logical_song said:
Someone should put in a Freedom of Information request to ask how much those cost.Tissue_Price said:Freedom of Information at its finest:
"You sent a number of seemingly reasonable requests with the apparent sole purpose of communicating rude subliminal messages in their subjects."
Applications Rejected Seeking Excessive House Of Lords Expenses
Tabulated Oxfordshire Social Services Early Retirement Statistics
Thames Water Added Trace Substances
Bus Operators' Luggage Limits On Corby-Kettering Services
etc.
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/user/delilah_cormorant_5
via @youngvulgarian
My council tax went towards answering these:
"We were asked how many drawing pins the council owns, and how many of those are presently installed in pinboards. Others have asked how much we have spent on biscuits for council meetings or on bottled water in a year."
"Ken Thornber, leader of Hampshire County Council, said: "We spent £365,000 in 2010 answering freedom of information requests. What else could I do with that money? More social workers, more school inspectors, more spent on road maintenance."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9149322/What-price-freedom-of-information.html0 -
More back a Canada/EFTA style deal than hard Brexit and May and Davis are aiming for a Canada deal with a dash of Switzerland. However that 26% will be UKIP's for the taking and that 31% will be targets for the LDs tooisam said:X
31% wanting to stay in vs 26% wanting hard brexit is not a good poll for those opposing hard brexit. I'm surprised the gap is so smalllogical_song said:
But only 26% want a hard Brexit.SeanT said:
Yes, remarkable. Only 31% now want to stay in the EU, after the vote.williamglenn said:
From the same poll: "Asked what outcome they would most like to see, remaining in the EU is picked by 31% of people, a “hard Brexit” falling back onto WTO rules is picked by 26%, a Canada style deal by 26%, and EFTA membership by 17%. Continuing EU membership is the first choice of most of those who voted Remain in June, followed by EFTA membership."SeanT said:Moreover, recent polling shows that 68% of Brits, Leave or Remain, think we should just get on with Brexiting.
That's the bitter reality for hardcore Remoaners. The country is firmly against them.0 -
Yes, in the form of the rule of man-made law.MaxPB said:
Backing secularism is what's needed, not liberalism/democracy.SeanT said:
One other thing about Aleppo: it's difficult to see how Donald Trump could be a WORSE president than Barack Obama, when it comes to US Foreign Policy.MaxPB said:
The West sold these Arab nations on a dream that never existed. We riled them up and made them topple or try and topple relatively friendly dictators in favour of democracy only for them to be taken over by Islamists and terrorists. From the beginning we should have been talking them into negotiated settlements, a military victory was never possible.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
I guess Trump could start a nuclear war, but short of that....
It was bad luck for Obama that he took office just as America's relative decline really kicked in, but he still managed to make America look bumbling, incoherent, and weak.0 -
It's bigger than the referendum difference.isam said:
31% wanting to stay in vs 26% wanting hard brexit is not a good poll for those opposing hard brexit. I'm surprised the gap is so smalllogical_song said:
But only 26% want a hard Brexit.SeanT said:
Yes, remarkable. Only 31% now want to stay in the EU, after the vote.williamglenn said:
From the same poll: "Asked what outcome they would most like to see, remaining in the EU is picked by 31% of people, a “hard Brexit” falling back onto WTO rules is picked by 26%, a Canada style deal by 26%, and EFTA membership by 17%. Continuing EU membership is the first choice of most of those who voted Remain in June, followed by EFTA membership."SeanT said:Moreover, recent polling shows that 68% of Brits, Leave or Remain, think we should just get on with Brexiting.
That's the bitter reality for hardcore Remoaners. The country is firmly against them.0 -
McDonnell if before the election is the only alternative to CorbynPulpstar said:
Yes but that's just your own wishful view of what you think might constitute an actual opposition.HYUFD said:
None as I back May, however Umunna would be Labour's best bet in my view if and when Corbyn loses and if Labour bothers to try and winTissue_Price said:
Who would you be backing?HYUFD said:
Lewis backed Trident, he and Nandy are too right-wing for the Labour membership in their current mood but too leftwing for the electorate as a wholeTissue_Price said:
It will be the left that does for Corbyn in the end. We might be looking at a Lewis - Nandy contest.rottenborough said:I have just topped up by bets on Clive Lewis being next Labour leader. Currently on BF he is just ahead of Starmer as the two favourites.
Who do you think will ACTUALLY become next Labour leader.0 -
We don't want to get our hands dirty, and we don't want to lose people in a conflict. Thats the ultimate failure of a liberal foreign policy. We truely are impotent.SeanT said:
One other thing about Aleppo: it's difficult to see how Donald Trump could be a WORSE president than Barack Obama, when it comes to US Foreign Policy.MaxPB said:
The West sold these Arab nations on a dream that never existed. We riled them up and made them topple or try and topple relatively friendly dictators in favour of democracy only for them to be taken over by Islamists and terrorists. From the beginning we should have been talking them into negotiated settlements, a military victory was never possible.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
I guess Trump could start a nuclear war, but short of that....
It was bad luck for Obama that he took office just as America's relative decline really kicked in, but he still managed to make America look bumbling, incoherent, and weak.
We wring our hands saying 'something should be done' yet lack any will to do anything.0 -
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)0 -
I'm being flippant.Theuniondivvie said:
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)0 -
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/808574740214517760Theuniondivvie said:
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)0 -
Of course he could be worse. The Baltic states and the Balkans might be getting a bit nervous.SeanT said:
One other thing about Aleppo: it's difficult to see how Donald Trump could be a WORSE president than Barack Obama, when it comes to US Foreign Policy.MaxPB said:
The West sold these Arab nations on a dream that never existed. We riled them up and made them topple or try and topple relatively friendly dictators in favour of democracy only for them to be taken over by Islamists and terrorists. From the beginning we should have been talking them into negotiated settlements, a military victory was never possible.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
I guess Trump could start a nuclear war, but short of that....
It was bad luck for Obama that he took office just as America's relative decline really kicked in, but he still managed to make America look bumbling, incoherent, and weak.0 -
Poor Hillary Benn, you used to say he was the only alternative.HYUFD said:
McDonnell if before the election is the only alternative to CorbynPulpstar said:
Yes but that's just your own wishful view of what you think might constitute an actual opposition.HYUFD said:
None as I back May, however Umunna would be Labour's best bet in my view if and when Corbyn loses and if Labour bothers to try and winTissue_Price said:
Who would you be backing?HYUFD said:
Lewis backed Trident, he and Nandy are too right-wing for the Labour membership in their current mood but too leftwing for the electorate as a wholeTissue_Price said:
It will be the left that does for Corbyn in the end. We might be looking at a Lewis - Nandy contest.rottenborough said:I have just topped up by bets on Clive Lewis being next Labour leader. Currently on BF he is just ahead of Starmer as the two favourites.
Who do you think will ACTUALLY become next Labour leader.
The Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS was the analogy you used more than once.0 -
Haha so what?! What a ludicrous comparison.logical_song said:
It's bigger than the referendum difference.isam said:
31% wanting to stay in vs 26% wanting hard brexit is not a good poll for those opposing hard brexit. I'm surprised the gap is so smalllogical_song said:
But only 26% want a hard Brexit.SeanT said:
Yes, remarkable. Only 31% now want to stay in the EU, after the vote.williamglenn said:
From the same poll: "Asked what outcome they would most like to see, remaining in the EU is picked by 31% of people, a “hard Brexit” falling back onto WTO rules is picked by 26%, a Canada style deal by 26%, and EFTA membership by 17%. Continuing EU membership is the first choice of most of those who voted Remain in June, followed by EFTA membership."SeanT said:Moreover, recent polling shows that 68% of Brits, Leave or Remain, think we should just get on with Brexiting.
That's the bitter reality for hardcore Remoaners. The country is firmly against them.0 -
You can charge for disbursements etc when meeting FOI requestslogical_song said:
Someone should put in a Freedom of Information request to ask how much those cost.Tissue_Price said:Freedom of Information at its finest:
"You sent a number of seemingly reasonable requests with the apparent sole purpose of communicating rude subliminal messages in their subjects."
Applications Rejected Seeking Excessive House Of Lords Expenses
Tabulated Oxfordshire Social Services Early Retirement Statistics
Thames Water Added Trace Substances
Bus Operators' Luggage Limits On Corby-Kettering Services
etc.
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/user/delilah_cormorant_5
via @youngvulgarian
My council tax went towards answering these:
"We were asked how many drawing pins the council owns, and how many of those are presently installed in pinboards. Others have asked how much we have spent on biscuits for council meetings or on bottled water in a year."
"Ken Thornber, leader of Hampshire County Council, said: "We spent £365,000 in 2010 answering freedom of information requests. What else could I do with that money? More social workers, more school inspectors, more spent on road maintenance."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9149322/What-price-freedom-of-information.html0 -
I agree, but you can't do that in this day and age, at least you can't do that without ditching focus on 'all' human rights.SeanT said:
We need to treat Islamism as we treated communism in the 1950s and 60s. If there is a local hardman who will keep the Islamists down, then accept him as the lesser of two evils. That's how we saved Chile, the Philippines, and many other countries from going communist.MaxPB said:
Backing secularism is what's needed, not liberalism/democracy. We should back secular dictators in favour of an Islamist democratic rabble. Over time the hard-line tendencies can be stamped out of the population, either through labour camps (China) or gulags (USSR). It's absolutely horrible, but I don't see any other option.SeanT said:
One other thing about Aleppo: it's difficult to see how Donald Trump could be a WORSE president than Barack Obama, when it comes to US Foreign Policy.MaxPB said:
The West sold these Arab nations on a dream that never existed. We riled them up and made them topple or try and topple relatively friendly dictators in favour of democracy only for them to be taken over by Islamists and terrorists. From the beginning we should have been talking them into negotiated settlements, a military victory was never possible.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
I guess Trump could start a nuclear war, but short of that....
It was bad luck for Obama that he took office just as America's relative decline really kicked in, but he still managed to make America look bumbling, incoherent, and weak.
As F D Roosevelt said of Somoza in Nicaragua - he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he is our son of a bitch.0 -
Last of the Kolpaks? Why South Africans are in a rush before Brexit bites
Simon Harmer, Stiaan van Zyl and Hardus Viljoen have signed Kolpak deals in the past few weeks but the days are numbered for the controversial loophole that has had a big effect on cricket in two countries
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/dec/13/the-spin-kolpak-south-africa-cricket-brexit0 -
Vijoen's nickname anyone?TheScreamingEagles said:Last of the Kolpaks? Why South Africans are in a rush before Brexit bites
Simon Harmer, Stiaan van Zyl and Hardus Viljoen have signed Kolpak deals in the past few weeks but the days are numbered for the controversial loophole that has had a big effect on cricket in two countries
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/dec/13/the-spin-kolpak-south-africa-cricket-brexit0 -
With one or two exceptions (UAE and Oman perhaps) the West's foreign policy to the Arab world seems to be a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't.MaxPB said:
The West sold these Arab nations on a dream that never existed. We riled them up and made them topple or try and topple relatively friendly dictators in favour of democracy only for them to be taken over by Islamists and terrorists. From the beginning we should have been talking them into negotiated settlements, a military victory was never possible.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
In the case of Britain this is decades old: Palestine, Sykes-Picot, Persia, Iraq, Palestine/Israel, Suez, Aden/Yemen, Iraq and Iraq again. And now Syria, or not.0 -
I don't think anyone would care if the council gave an only slightly less polite Arkell vs Pressdram response to requests about drawing pins and biscuits. Bottled water is probably a fair request though, and should be easily answerable by references to the supplier's invoices.logical_song said:
Someone should put in a Freedom of Information request to ask how much those cost.Tissue_Price said:Freedom of Information at its finest:
"You sent a number of seemingly reasonable requests with the apparent sole purpose of communicating rude subliminal messages in their subjects."
Applications Rejected Seeking Excessive House Of Lords Expenses
Tabulated Oxfordshire Social Services Early Retirement Statistics
Thames Water Added Trace Substances
Bus Operators' Luggage Limits On Corby-Kettering Services
etc.
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/user/delilah_cormorant_5
via @youngvulgarian
My council tax went towards answering these:
"We were asked how many drawing pins the council owns, and how many of those are presently installed in pinboards. Others have asked how much we have spent on biscuits for council meetings or on bottled water in a year."
"Ken Thornber, leader of Hampshire County Council, said: "We spent £365,000 in 2010 answering freedom of information requests. What else could I do with that money? More social workers, more school inspectors, more spent on road maintenance."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9149322/What-price-freedom-of-information.html0 -
Absolutely. I'd take a secular strongman in the Middle East over Islamist "democracy" any day of the week. Sanitising Islam from hard-line tendencies is going to be a century long process of isolating Islamist supporting countries and bringing the strongmen in from the cold.SeanT said:We need to treat Islamism as we treated communism in the 1950s and 60s. If there is a local hardman who will keep the Islamists down, then accept him as the lesser of two evils. That's how we saved Chile, the Philippines, and many other countries from going communist.
As F D Roosevelt said of Somoza in Nicaragua - he may be a son of a bitch, but at least he is our son of a bitch.
This is realpolitick, not Obama's hopium based liberal bullshit. FDR was a colossus compared to the pygmies we have today. None would have the courage to outright back secularism in the ME, look at how Boris got sent to grovel to Saudi Arabia.0 -
I suspect that part of the past-vote weighting is to the referendum result. The last few YouGov's I've looked at have had Remain/Leave divisions within a small fraction of one percent of the actual result, which is something you wouldn't expect with normal statistical variation even if the public view had totally fossilised.MaxPB said:
Past vote but it also asked a current VI which showed no change on the result, but based on YouGov's error it could mean a small swing to leave.Andy_Cooke said:0 -
Ah.Slackbladder said:
I'm being flippant.Theuniondivvie said:
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
Though I was unsure at the time, it's very hard to believe that attacking Assad in 2013 wouldn't have turned into a similarly horrible clusterfuck, when only two years later Parliament approved the bombing of the people Assad was fighting. With the luxury of hindsight, the only viable action would have been to enforce a no fly zone before Russia got involved.0 -
I'm a bit behind, but was TSE this morning really criticising someone for wearing overpriced bad clothes?0
-
That was when he was still in the Shadow Cabinet and loyal to Corbyn. However after Corbyn renewed his mandate Labour will only go into the next election led by a Corbynista, that is basically Corbyn or McDonnell, Lewis is no longer in that category after backing Trident nor is Nandy after backing SmithTheScreamingEagles said:
Poor Hillary Benn, you used to say he was the only alternative.HYUFD said:
McDonnell if before the election is the only alternative to CorbynPulpstar said:
Yes but that's just your own wishful view of what you think might constitute an actual opposition.HYUFD said:
None as I back May, however Umunna would be Labour's best bet in my view if and when Corbyn loses and if Labour bothers to try and winTissue_Price said:
Who would you be backing?HYUFD said:
Lewis backed Trident, he and Nandy are too right-wing for the Labour membership in their current mood but too leftwing for the electorate as a wholeTissue_Price said:
It will be the left that does for Corbyn in the end. We might be looking at a Lewis - Nandy contest.rottenborough said:I have just topped up by bets on Clive Lewis being next Labour leader. Currently on BF he is just ahead of Starmer as the two favourites.
Who do you think will ACTUALLY become next Labour leader.
The Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS was the analogy you used more than once.0 -
Fabric expenses would have increased toward the end of his tenure too.isam said:
A friend of mine has made suits for David Cameron, and they don't cost less than £995Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
How does a grand on TM's leather trousers compare with the cost of one of the suits worn by some of the more flash MP's?TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave resigned, George was sacked by the Gordon Brown in £995 leather pants.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Fixed it for you.TheScreamingEagles said:Morris_Dancer said:Inflation at two year high:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38300919
Or "barely half the desired rate". We should take note of the direction of travel, but it's hardly astronomical.
George and Dave were right to resign..0 -
Yes, they do. They weight to:Andy_Cooke said:
I suspect that part of the past-vote weighting is to the referendum result. The last few YouGov's I've looked at have had Remain/Leave divisions within a small fraction of one percent of the actual result, which is something you wouldn't expect with normal statistical variation even if the public view had totally fossilised.MaxPB said:
Past vote but it also asked a current VI which showed no change on the result, but based on YouGov's error it could mean a small swing to leave.Andy_Cooke said:
(1) age interlocked with education
(2) political attention
(3) social grade
(4) 2015 recalled vote interlocked with region
(5) EU referendum voting intention0 -
They also asked a current referendum VI which was almost identical to the result.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, they do. They weight to:Andy_Cooke said:
I suspect that part of the past-vote weighting is to the referendum result. The last few YouGov's I've looked at have had Remain/Leave divisions within a small fraction of one percent of the actual result, which is something you wouldn't expect with normal statistical variation even if the public view had totally fossilised.MaxPB said:
Past vote but it also asked a current VI which showed no change on the result, but based on YouGov's error it could mean a small swing to leave.Andy_Cooke said:
(1) age interlocked with education
(2) political attention
(3) social grade
(4) 2015 recalled vote interlocked with region
(5) EU referendum voting intention0 -
No.ThreeQuidder said:I'm a bit behind, but was TSE this morning really criticising someone for wearing overpriced bad clothes?
0 -
Isn't that around the time they sacked you?SeanT said:
In retrospect, the best course of action (though horrible to contemplate, and politically unpalatable even now) might have been to support Assad - crushing the rebellion brutally but quickly.Theuniondivvie said:
Ah.Slackbladder said:
I'm being flippant.Theuniondivvie said:
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
Though I was unsure at the time, it's very hard to believe that attacking Assad in 2013 wouldn't have turned into a similarly horrible clusterfuck, when only two years later Parliament approved the bombing of the people Assad was fighting. With the luxury of hindsight, the only viable action would have been to enforce a no fly zone before Russia got involved.
That would have spared Syria this endless civil war, which, it seems, Assad is going to win anyway. And it would have left no room for ISIS.
Totally unsellable to a liberal western public, naturally. Though I did make this suggestion in a Telegraph blogpost about three years ago....
*Innocent face*0 -
These are the numbers from the Yougov survey:
Although the "Canada deal" is the best of a unappealing bunch from the view of those canvassed it's still barely making 50% support. Even then I think there is a lot of vagueness about what "Canada" would mean and what, in practice we would end up with.
The actual question was:
Imagine Britain left the EU on these terms:
Britain leaves the EU and instead agrees a free trade deal with the EU. Britain can export goods to the EU without paying tariffs, but the deal does not include services, so does not allow British industries like financial services to export freely to the EU. Britain has full control over our borders and immigration, does not have to follow any EU regulations and does not
have to contribute any money to the EU.
- Do you think this outcome would be good or bad for Britain?
- Regardless of whether you think it would be good or bad for Britain, do you think this outcome would or would not respect the result of the referendum?
- And would you personally be happy or unhappy with this outcome?
0 -
Having your cake and eating it most popular choice shock!HYUFD said:
More back a Canada/EFTA style deal than hard Brexit and May and Davis are aiming for a Canada deal with a dash of Switzerland. However that 26% will be UKIP's for the taking and that 31% will be targets for the LDs tooisam said:X
31% wanting to stay in vs 26% wanting hard brexit is not a good poll for those opposing hard brexit. I'm surprised the gap is so smalllogical_song said:
But only 26% want a hard Brexit.SeanT said:
Yes, remarkable. Only 31% now want to stay in the EU, after the vote.williamglenn said:
From the same poll: "Asked what outcome they would most like to see, remaining in the EU is picked by 31% of people, a “hard Brexit” falling back onto WTO rules is picked by 26%, a Canada style deal by 26%, and EFTA membership by 17%. Continuing EU membership is the first choice of most of those who voted Remain in June, followed by EFTA membership."SeanT said:Moreover, recent polling shows that 68% of Brits, Leave or Remain, think we should just get on with Brexiting.
That's the bitter reality for hardcore Remoaners. The country is firmly against them.0 -
Yeah, but if they'd weighted the sample to the referendum outcome, then even if there had been a change, it would be significantly harder to see.MaxPB said:
They also asked a current referendum VI which was almost identical to the result.Tissue_Price said:
Yes, they do. They weight to:Andy_Cooke said:
I suspect that part of the past-vote weighting is to the referendum result. The last few YouGov's I've looked at have had Remain/Leave divisions within a small fraction of one percent of the actual result, which is something you wouldn't expect with normal statistical variation even if the public view had totally fossilised.MaxPB said:
Past vote but it also asked a current VI which showed no change on the result, but based on YouGov's error it could mean a small swing to leave.Andy_Cooke said:
(1) age interlocked with education
(2) political attention
(3) social grade
(4) 2015 recalled vote interlocked with region
(5) EU referendum voting intention0 -
George Osborne "We are deceiving ourselves in this parliament if we think we have no responsibility for what is happening in Aleppo."
Osborne says: "Parliament should take its responsibility... there were multiple opportunities to intervene."0 -
Osborne: "My generation knows the cost of intervention... but we are beginning to learn the cost of not intervening."
Osborne: "let's be clear - if you don't shape the world you will be shaped by it".0 -
As did I, 15 months ago:SeanT said:
In retrospect, the best course of action (though horrible to contemplate, and politically unpalatable even now) might have been to support Assad - crushing the rebellion brutally but quickly.Theuniondivvie said:
Ah.Slackbladder said:
I'm being flippant.Theuniondivvie said:
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
Though I was unsure at the time, it's very hard to believe that attacking Assad in 2013 wouldn't have turned into a similarly horrible clusterfuck, when only two years later Parliament approved the bombing of the people Assad was fighting. With the luxury of hindsight, the only viable action would have been to enforce a no fly zone before Russia got involved.
That would have spared Syria this endless civil war, which, it seems, Assad is going to win anyway. And it would have left no room for ISIS.
Totally unsellable to a liberal western public, naturally. Though I did make this suggestion in a Telegraph blogpost about three years ago....
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/05/syria-a-call-to-alms/
Nothing has changed in that time except that the toll of death and destruction has risen, as has Russia's influence and self-confidence.0 -
It wouldn't have taken supporting him, it would merely have taken *not* covertly and overtly supporting, and many might say fomenting, an Islamist insurrection. The anti-Assad protests never had as much support amongst Syrians as Assad did himself - that's remained a constant. His army has not deserted and his regime has not fallen apart. Without the West, the so-called 'Arab Spring' would not have happened. Morsi wouldn't have taken power in Egypt (only to be overthrown again), and Assad wouldn't have been challenged in Syria. We pandered and fostered an intolerant sunni minority who hated the plurality of religious persuasions in Syria, we abetted terrorists, and we sided with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, at a cost of hundreds of thousands of lives.SeanT said:
In retrospect, the best course of action (though horrible to contemplate, and politically unpalatable even now) might have been to support Assad - crushing the rebellion brutally but quickly.Theuniondivvie said:
Ah.Slackbladder said:
I'm being flippant.Theuniondivvie said:
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
Though I was unsure at the time, it's very hard to believe that attacking Assad in 2013 wouldn't have turned into a similarly horrible clusterfuck, when only two years later Parliament approved the bombing of the people Assad was fighting. With the luxury of hindsight, the only viable action would have been to enforce a no fly zone before Russia got involved.
That would have spared Syria this endless civil war, which, it seems, Assad is going to win anyway. And it would have left no room for ISIS.
Totally unsellable to a liberal western public, naturally. Though I did make this suggestion in a Telegraph blogpost about three years ago....
0 -
I had one of the first 1000 Prius's in the country, and I got IIRC £1000 back from the government for buying it (not sure I remember the amount properly). It did us 10 years and was still going strong and no indication of any battery issues when we decided to change it.
Had a Honda Insight for the past 4 1/2 years. Similar technology to the Prius but about £10K cheaper to buy at the time. Also suited me better because it is basically a vehicle for getting you from A to B in reasonable comfort and not ponced up to appeal to the petrolhead tendency like the more recent Prius versions.0 -
Neither. Despicable.SeanT said:
Delusional. Or stupid.TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne "We are deceiving ourselves in this parliament if we think we have no responsibility for what is happening in Aleppo."
Osborne says: "Parliament should take its responsibility... there were multiple opportunities to intervene."0 -
I think the mood at the time, morality aside, was that Assad was going to lose, and backing a son of a bitch loser is the most unsellable proposition of all. Who could have foreseen that the lisping dentist (edit: sorry Bashar, opthalmist) and rickety old Russia would be the big winners?SeanT said:
In retrospect, the best course of action (though horrible to contemplate, and politically unpalatable even now) might have been to support Assad - crushing the rebellion brutally but quickly.Theuniondivvie said:
Ah.Slackbladder said:
I'm being flippant.Theuniondivvie said:
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
Though I was unsure at the time, it's very hard to believe that attacking Assad in 2013 wouldn't have turned into a similarly horrible clusterfuck, when only two years later Parliament approved the bombing of the people Assad was fighting. With the luxury of hindsight, the only viable action would have been to enforce a no fly zone before Russia got involved.
That would have spared Syria this endless civil war, which, it seems, Assad is going to win anyway. And it would have left no room for ISIS.
Totally unsellable to a liberal western public, naturally. Though I did make this suggestion in a Telegraph blogpost about three years ago....0 -
Optician, I thought?Theuniondivvie said:
I think the mood at the time, morality aside, was that Assad was going to lose, and backing a son of a bitch loser is the most unsellable proposition of all. Who could have foreseen that the lisping dentist and rickety old Russia would be the big winners?SeanT said:
In retrospect, the best course of action (though horrible to contemplate, and politically unpalatable even now) might have been to support Assad - crushing the rebellion brutally but quickly.Theuniondivvie said:
Ah.Slackbladder said:
I'm being flippant.Theuniondivvie said:
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
Though I was unsure at the time, it's very hard to believe that attacking Assad in 2013 wouldn't have turned into a similarly horrible clusterfuck, when only two years later Parliament approved the bombing of the people Assad was fighting. With the luxury of hindsight, the only viable action would have been to enforce a no fly zone before Russia got involved.
That would have spared Syria this endless civil war, which, it seems, Assad is going to win anyway. And it would have left no room for ISIS.
Totally unsellable to a liberal western public, naturally. Though I did make this suggestion in a Telegraph blogpost about three years ago....0 -
Yeah, something niggled at my memory and I double checked.MaxPB said:
Optician, I thought?Theuniondivvie said:
I think the mood at the time, morality aside, was that Assad was going to lose, and backing a son of a bitch loser is the most unsellable proposition of all. Who could have foreseen that the lisping dentist and rickety old Russia would be the big winners?SeanT said:
In retrospect, the best course of action (though horrible to contemplate, and politically unpalatable even now) might have been to support Assad - crushing the rebellion brutally but quickly.Theuniondivvie said:
Ah.Slackbladder said:
I'm being flippant.Theuniondivvie said:
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
Though I was unsure at the time, it's very hard to believe that attacking Assad in 2013 wouldn't have turned into a similarly horrible clusterfuck, when only two years later Parliament approved the bombing of the people Assad was fighting. With the luxury of hindsight, the only viable action would have been to enforce a no fly zone before Russia got involved.
That would have spared Syria this endless civil war, which, it seems, Assad is going to win anyway. And it would have left no room for ISIS.
Totally unsellable to a liberal western public, naturally. Though I did make this suggestion in a Telegraph blogpost about three years ago....0 -
0
-
I was on balance opposed to intervention in Syria in 2013 and continue to believe that was the right decision. Where the West has a much greater stain on its conscience is in its handling of the inevitable refugee crisis that emerged from that decision not to intervene.
Some of the same people who are appalled at the destruction of Aleppo were equally appalled that so many Syrians fled in advance of that and were determined to do nothing to help them. It seems that only too many really wanted these Syrians just to die decently, without drama and out of sight.0 -
Well, not that if we are talking that suit he had tailored in Brussels earlier this year....Luckyguy1983 said:
Fabric expenses would have increased toward the end of his tenure too.isam said:
A friend of mine has made suits for David Cameron, and they don't cost less than £995Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
How does a grand on TM's leather trousers compare with the cost of one of the suits worn by some of the more flash MP's?TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave resigned, George was sacked by the Gordon Brown in £995 leather pants.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Fixed it for you.TheScreamingEagles said:Morris_Dancer said:Inflation at two year high:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38300919
Or "barely half the desired rate". We should take note of the direction of travel, but it's hardly astronomical.
George and Dave were right to resign..0 -
I'd like to know why the Arab world doesn't stump up sufficient aid to support the refugees and rebuilding costs from what is an internal Arab conflict0
-
There was already chaos in Europe before Merkel intervened. It was because Hungary was overwhelmed with refugees that she temporarily suspended the Dublin protocol to allow processing to happen in Germany. Grossly irresponsible reporting turned this moral decision into something it was not.SeanT said:What Merkel did was bloody insane and even immoral, causing chaos across Europe, and encouraging thousands more to make the crossing, and die in the process.
0 -
Why was there a 'mood' to 'back' anyone? It's not as though there are any spoils - countries that had no involvement in the Iraq war made more money from reconstruction than we did - the US doesn't do thank yous. We should have stayed out and tried to defuse the whole thing diplomatically.Theuniondivvie said:
I think the mood at the time, morality aside, was that Assad was going to lose, and backing a son of a bitch loser is the most unsellable proposition of all. Who could have foreseen that the lisping dentist (edit: sorry Bashar, opthalmist) and rickety old Russia would be the big winners?SeanT said:
In retrospect, the best course of action (though horrible to contemplate, and politically unpalatable even now) might have been to support Assad - crushing the rebellion brutally but quickly.Theuniondivvie said:
Ah.Slackbladder said:
I'm being flippant.Theuniondivvie said:
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
Though I was unsure at the time, it's very hard to believe that attacking Assad in 2013 wouldn't have turned into a similarly horrible clusterfuck, when only two years later Parliament approved the bombing of the people Assad was fighting. With the luxury of hindsight, the only viable action would have been to enforce a no fly zone before Russia got involved.
That would have spared Syria this endless civil war, which, it seems, Assad is going to win anyway. And it would have left no room for ISIS.
Totally unsellable to a liberal western public, naturally. Though I did make this suggestion in a Telegraph blogpost about three years ago....0 -
Well they will be certainly out of sight from a person of your staus,my city of bradford has taken it's fair share of syrian refugee'sAlastairMeeks said:I was on balance opposed to intervention in Syria in 2013 and continue to believe that was the right decision. Where the West has a much greater stain on its conscience is in its handling of the inevitable refugee crisis that emerged from that decision not to intervene.
Some of the same people who are appalled at the destruction of Aleppo were equally appalled that so many Syrians fled in advance of that and were determined to do nothing to help them. It seems that only too many really wanted these Syrians just to die decently, without drama and out of sight.0 -
'Labour MP Ben Bradshaw says it is “highly probable” that Russia also intervened in the EU referendum.'
He better have some proof.0 -
That's not my recollection at all. She offered refuge to any Syrian reaching the borders of Germany, without thinking through the consequences of what such a message might mean.williamglenn said:
There was already chaos in Europe before Merkel intervened. It was because Hungary was overwhelmed with refugees that she temporarily suspended the Dublin protocol to allow processing to happen in Germany. Grossly irresponsible reporting turned this moral decision into something it was not.SeanT said:What Merkel did was bloody insane and even immoral, causing chaos across Europe, and encouraging thousands more to make the crossing, and die in the process.
0 -
Isn't that kinda what we did, token bombing in 2016 aside?Luckyguy1983 said:
Why was there a 'mood' to 'back' anyone? It's not as though there are any spoils - countries that had no involvement in the Iraq war made more money from reconstruction than we did - the US doesn't do thank yous. We should have stayed out and tried to defuse the whole thing diplomatically.Theuniondivvie said:
I think the mood at the time, morality aside, was that Assad was going to lose, and backing a son of a bitch loser is the most unsellable proposition of all. Who could have foreseen that the lisping dentist (edit: sorry Bashar, opthalmist) and rickety old Russia would be the big winners?SeanT said:
In retrospect, the best course of action (though horrible to contemplate, and politically unpalatable even now) might have been to support Assad - crushing the rebellion brutally but quickly.Theuniondivvie said:
Ah.Slackbladder said:
I'm being flippant.Theuniondivvie said:
How so?Slackbladder said:
Really it's all Ed Milibands fault back in 2013 as well.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
Though I was unsure at the time, it's very hard to believe that attacking Assad in 2013 wouldn't have turned into a similarly horrible clusterfuck, when only two years later Parliament approved the bombing of the people Assad was fighting. With the luxury of hindsight, the only viable action would have been to enforce a no fly zone before Russia got involved.
That would have spared Syria this endless civil war, which, it seems, Assad is going to win anyway. And it would have left no room for ISIS.
Totally unsellable to a liberal western public, naturally. Though I did make this suggestion in a Telegraph blogpost about three years ago....
0 -
He did. Personally I suspect it was because of the looming EUref. A move which considering the close result, was a wise one - though obviously not enough to prevent a Leave victory. I think with the referendum in the bag, being 'good EU citizens' would have been back on the table smartish.SeanT said:
The one thing HMG got RIGHT on Syria was the refugee crisis: we were extremely generous in aiding Syrians in Turkey, in camps, and we took only the most vulnerable from there directly to Britain. This was the judicious course.AlastairMeeks said:I was on balance opposed to intervention in Syria in 2013 and continue to believe that was the right decision. Where the West has a much greater stain on its conscience is in its handling of the inevitable refugee crisis that emerged from that decision not to intervene.
Some of the same people who are appalled at the destruction of Aleppo were equally appalled that so many Syrians fled in advance of that and were determined to do nothing to help them. It seems that only too many really wanted these Syrians just to die decently, without drama and out of sight.
What Merkel did was bloody insane and even immoral, causing chaos across Europe, and encouraging thousands more to make the crossing, and die in the process.
Cameron can be criticised for many things, but he called that one right.0 -
Oh wow. Utter desperation - what a tool.Slackbladder said:'Labour MP Ben Bradshaw says it is “highly probable” that Russia also intervened in the EU referendum.'
He better have some proof.0 -
Well, it's certain that America intervened.Slackbladder said:'Labour MP Ben Bradshaw says it is “highly probable” that Russia also intervened in the EU referendum.'
He better have some proof.0 -
FF43 said:
Unfortunately I have to agree with you. It makes me sick.SeanT said:Aleppo is just horrific. Some of the images and vids on Twitter..... Unspeakable.
I still can't think of anything Europe or America might reasonably have done to prevent it; nonetheless it will go down as Obama's greatest foreign policy failure (and his foreign policy was nothing but failures, pretty much)
Ultimately the Arab world will need to establish a liberal politics, as Europe did eventually after the failed revolutions of 1848. European history shows it will be long and bloody. Egypt will be key, I think. It's the biggest Arab country and the one most open to ideas
It took Europe 300 years after the Enlightenment before WW1 followed by WW2 stopped most European wars for over 50 years.
There has been no Muslim Enlightenment. Religion dominates or is conflated with politics.
Think centuries.
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"Highly probable"
Is he offering 3 to 1 that they didn't ?0 -
Agree with that,the insane opposition in this country wanted to go down the merkel route.Just look at the lib dem leader who wanted 80 to 100 hundred thousand syrian refugee's,that would have made us a number one country for all migrants and refugee's.SeanT said:
The one thing HMG got RIGHT on Syria was the refugee crisis: we were extremely generous in aiding Syrians in Turkey, in camps, and we took only the most vulnerable from there directly to Britain. This was the judicious course.AlastairMeeks said:I was on balance opposed to intervention in Syria in 2013 and continue to believe that was the right decision. Where the West has a much greater stain on its conscience is in its handling of the inevitable refugee crisis that emerged from that decision not to intervene.
Some of the same people who are appalled at the destruction of Aleppo were equally appalled that so many Syrians fled in advance of that and were determined to do nothing to help them. It seems that only too many really wanted these Syrians just to die decently, without drama and out of sight.
What Merkel did was bloody insane and even immoral, causing chaos across Europe, and encouraging thousands more to make the crossing, and die in the process.
Cameron can be criticised for many things, but he called that one right.0 -
I agree. A globally engaged Britain is crucial.TheScreamingEagles said:Osborne: "My generation knows the cost of intervention... but we are beginning to learn the cost of not intervening."
Osborne: "let's be clear - if you don't shape the world you will be shaped by it".0 -
Eh?Slackbladder said:'Labour MP Ben Bradshaw says it is “highly probable” that Russia also intervened in the EU referendum.'
He better have some proof.0 -
Possibly because on the whole the Arab countries are allergic to helping each other, in fact they don't really get on. From my experience, the Omani's, for example, loathe the Yemenis (and visa versa), look down on the Egyptians and regard the Kuwaitis as just a sub-tribe of the Iraqis, who they also can't stand. Just about everyone dislikes and mistrusts the Saudis.Blue_rog said:I'd like to know why the Arab world doesn't stump up sufficient aid to support the refugees and rebuilding costs from what is an internal Arab conflict
I am sure Mr. Sandpit, gent of this parish, has more insight into the Intra-Arab jealousies and bickering.0 -
No it isn't - because our Government (I'm not for calling it 'we') refused to contemplate the option of Assad's continued tenure. And funded and supported Islamist insurrectionists to try to topple him and install their own regime. It was regime-change or bust. And there was nothing short of a media propaganda campaign to grind the public into accepting more war from the beginning. You can't claim to be operating diplomacy whilst also being a combatant. It is not for a group consisting of France, the US, the GCC, and the UK to decide who is or is not acceptable to rule Syria - it is for Syrians.Theuniondivvie said:
Isn't that kinda what we did, token bombing in 2016 aside?0 -
Intervene is exactly what his Government DID do. The dice appear to have gone the wrong way. NON-intervention is what should have happened, and could have helped avoid this bloodshed.Casino_Royale said:
I agree. A globally engaged Britain is crucial.TheScreamingEagles said:Osborne: "My generation knows the cost of intervention... but we are beginning to learn the cost of not intervening."
Osborne: "let's be clear - if you don't shape the world you will be shaped by it".0 -
Sounds a bit like the Indian subcontinent ^_~HurstLlama said:
Possibly because on the whole the Arab countries are allergic to helping each other, in fact they don't really get on. From my experience, the Omani's, for example, loathe the Yemenis (and visa versa), look down on the Egyptians and regard the Kuwaitis as just a sub-tribe of the Iraqis, who they also can't stand. Just about everyone dislikes and mistrusts the Saudis.Blue_rog said:I'd like to know why the Arab world doesn't stump up sufficient aid to support the refugees and rebuilding costs from what is an internal Arab conflict
I am sure Mr. Sandpit, gent of this parish, has more insight into the Intra-Arab jealousies and bickering.0 -
The only regret I have on the Labour leader market is I only took £30 off fools prepared to back Benn at 3/1 and not more.
I'll sleep easy though.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: everyone else out to at least 15. Still looks like a Bottas/Wehrlein race. Bit irked with myself I only backed Bottas for the title and not the seat. If Mercedes have the strongest car, should still work out. If he wins, that’d also be nice.
Mr. Llama, one of the Arab countries (forget if it's Bahrain, which part-owns McLaren, or Abu Dhabi) has a veto on any new races in the region, which is why Qatar probably won't get one.0 -
She simply reaffirmed Germany's commitment to the UN convention on refugees.Casino_Royale said:
That's not my recollection at all. She offered refuge to any Syrian reaching the borders of Germany, without thinking through the consequences of what such a message might mean.williamglenn said:
There was already chaos in Europe before Merkel intervened. It was because Hungary was overwhelmed with refugees that she temporarily suspended the Dublin protocol to allow processing to happen in Germany. Grossly irresponsible reporting turned this moral decision into something it was not.SeanT said:What Merkel did was bloody insane and even immoral, causing chaos across Europe, and encouraging thousands more to make the crossing, and die in the process.
Look at stories like this in the weeks and months leading up to the decision on the Dublin protocol. The chaos was already here, and Merkel had been warning throughout the Greek debt talks that the migration crisis was a far more serious challenge for Europe.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3193541/Europe-s-migrant-crisis-turns-violent-Police-Kos-attack-refugees-batons-fire-extinguishers-fights-broke-1-500-strong-sit-protest-demanding-food-shelter-registration.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3201855/We-paid-1-200-Tonight-ll-Syrian-migrant-tells-paying-people-smuggler-transport-family-sea-Turkey-Greece-souvenir-shops-sell-lifejackets-desperate-refugees.html0 -
There is a saying in the Maghreb which I imagine has parallels all over the Arab world: me against my brothers, me and my brothers against my cousins, me, my brothers and my cousins against the world.HurstLlama said:
Possibly because on the whole the Arab countries are allergic to helping each other, in fact they don't really get on. From my experience, the Omani's, for example, loathe the Yemenis (and visa versa), look down on the Egyptians and regard the Kuwaitis as just a sub-tribe of the Iraqis, who they also can't stand. Just about everyone dislikes and mistrusts the Saudis.Blue_rog said:I'd like to know why the Arab world doesn't stump up sufficient aid to support the refugees and rebuilding costs from what is an internal Arab conflict
I am sure Mr. Sandpit, gent of this parish, has more insight into the Intra-Arab jealousies and bickering.
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Mr. Glenn, there was already a fire. Merkel then threw a bucket of oil on it.0
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Well the UAE and Oman are the two sensible places in the region, they have accepted a huge number of worker immigrants (taxi drivers etc) and a few refugees from areas of conflict. They are also supporting red cross/crescent and sending huge amounts of aid to the Syrian camps.HurstLlama said:
Possibly because on the whole the Arab countries are allergic to helping each other, in fact they don't really get on. From my experience, the Omani's, for example, loathe the Yemenis (and visa versa), look down on the Egyptians and regard the Kuwaitis as just a sub-tribe of the Iraqis, who they also can't stand. Just about everyone dislikes and mistrusts the Saudis.Blue_rog said:I'd like to know why the Arab world doesn't stump up sufficient aid to support the refugees and rebuilding costs from what is an internal Arab conflict
I am sure Mr. Sandpit, gent of this parish, has more insight into the Intra-Arab jealousies and bickering.
The main day-to-day focus over here is what's going on in Yemen. There's a GCC force helping to keep the government going in Yemen, against considerable insurgence which has cost military lives. It's believed the Yemeni rebels are getting cash and arms from Iran and, so they're not flavour of the month either. ISIL forces have also been picked up in Yemen supporting the rebels.
The agreement of oil producing countries yesterday to cut production (and by extension, raise prices) should help the Saudis out, who have been struggling with containing govt expenditure in the fuel price wars with the USA in recent years. The oil-producing countries in the ME region spend huge amounts of welfare for their local populations in order to ensure that there are no uprisings. Bahrain came very close a few years ago, the others took note.
It's all very complicated, and as others have mentioned there have been wars in the region almost continuously throughout living memory.0 -
Or Europe.Pulpstar said:
Sounds a bit like the Indian subcontinent ^_~HurstLlama said:
Possibly because on the whole the Arab countries are allergic to helping each other, in fact they don't really get on. From my experience, the Omani's, for example, loathe the Yemenis (and visa versa), look down on the Egyptians and regard the Kuwaitis as just a sub-tribe of the Iraqis, who they also can't stand. Just about everyone dislikes and mistrusts the Saudis.Blue_rog said:I'd like to know why the Arab world doesn't stump up sufficient aid to support the refugees and rebuilding costs from what is an internal Arab conflict
I am sure Mr. Sandpit, gent of this parish, has more insight into the Intra-Arab jealousies and bickering.0 -
Farage is a deep sleeper agent.Casino_Royale said:
Eh?Slackbladder said:'Labour MP Ben Bradshaw says it is “highly probable” that Russia also intervened in the EU referendum.'
He better have some proof.0 -
Yes, and there still are. But 'intervening' can mean any number of things. Had I been an MP in 2013, I'd have voted against air strikes against Assad because the entire policy was hopelessly confused.TheScreamingEagles said:George Osborne "We are deceiving ourselves in this parliament if we think we have no responsibility for what is happening in Aleppo."
Osborne says: "Parliament should take its responsibility... there were multiple opportunities to intervene."
If you are going to intervene then you need to decide what outcome you want, and what resources will be necessary to deliver that outcome - and then to put those resources in place. We never even got close to deciding what we wanted as a country other than 'to punish Assad for using chemical weapons', as if we were some kind of international referee dishing out yellow cards.
As soon as you intervene, you become responsible to some extent for what happens next. Had we intervened to weaken Assad then the groups opposed to him would have stood more chance of winning, including Daesh. So assuming that we didn't want them too, we'd have needed to ensure that they couldn't take advantage of the strikes against Assad, which would mean directly or indirectly targetting them too. All of which takes a lot of equipment, men, money and willpower - things that were not on offer in 2013.
So yes, parliament should take its responsibility, but so should the last government and other administrations around the world for putting forward what was fundamentally a dishonest policy; one which might have made them feel better for a little while and which might have removed chemical weapons from the equation (though that happened anyway), but which would have otherwise made a bad situation worse.0 -
You're extrapolating too far from old Firm games here.Theuniondivvie said:
Or Europe.Pulpstar said:
Sounds a bit like the Indian subcontinent ^_~HurstLlama said:
Possibly because on the whole the Arab countries are allergic to helping each other, in fact they don't really get on. From my experience, the Omani's, for example, loathe the Yemenis (and visa versa), look down on the Egyptians and regard the Kuwaitis as just a sub-tribe of the Iraqis, who they also can't stand. Just about everyone dislikes and mistrusts the Saudis.Blue_rog said:I'd like to know why the Arab world doesn't stump up sufficient aid to support the refugees and rebuilding costs from what is an internal Arab conflict
I am sure Mr. Sandpit, gent of this parish, has more insight into the Intra-Arab jealousies and bickering.0 -
Well I think we can rule out a booking at Ronnie Scott's...Casino_Royale said:
Eh?Slackbladder said:'Labour MP Ben Bradshaw says it is “highly probable” that Russia also intervened in the EU referendum.'
He better have some proof.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IV4IjHz2yIo0
