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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the advocacy, what next for the Article 50 case in the Supreme Court?
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I've not managed to follow the case in detail due to not being a constitutional lawyer and therefore having other work to do this week, but it sounds like a fascinating and ground-breaking case in a number of ways.
It's 28th October 1982 on BBC4 and Top of the Pops. First track is Do It To The Music by Raw Silk:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcfour
I'll take Alistair's word the initial view was the government were likely to win, that does seem to have been forgotten if it was the case. They could well overturn the High Court - I suppose one reason for the opinion shift is, IIRC, the High Court essentially said the fundamentals of the government case was wrong and in fact undermined itself in parts, so unless the Court was fundamentally wrong (not impossible but being so wrong is always, initially, seen as improbable) it would take a lot to convince the Justices. Not sure how one would put odds on that, but Alistair's reasoning seems fairly sound.
But this subject and how much people (in my personal view, admittedly) miss the point just winds me up, so I'll spare people that and call it quits for the day.
I was always told a good ruling by judges should be one that sets principles and precedents that should last and echoes through the ages.
Whereas in Bush v Gore, the Supreme Court of the United States said it was limited only to the present circumstances.
If Gina Miller wins, can she claim her costs back from the government? In a private civil case on this scale, the loser would be personally liable for the winner's costs and they'd be huge.
Or do the Supremes not deal with costs in the same way as the lower courts, due to the importance of the case? Maybe one of our lawyer posters might advise.
Unfortunately the popular press believe wrongly in my opinion that the public wont be interested in following the argument and instead prefer to amplify silly soundbites by celebrity barristers like the late George Carmen. If anyone can be bothered The Art of Advocacy' by Norman Birkett is a wonderful read.
Good evening, everybody.
I can't help feeling though that if three top of the range judges get overruled by another bunch of judges its rather saying that either one lot of the other have made a mistake.
Now if the evidence or circumstances had changed or the judges being overruled were lower division I could understand an overrule better.
I'm off to stick some cash on the outcome....
Choosing the pictures for threads is one of perks of the job.
I can understand some brilliant lawyer convincing a jury of ordinary people with his verbal dexterity and forensic questioning of witnesses.
But that doesn't apply in this case.
Isn't that a picture of pbCOM's last social outing at Dirty Dicks or wherever they go? I can definitely spot Plato at the back...
To what extent should the government's A50 deadline amendment affect our thinking?
Does it signify that the government reckons it might lose the court case? Merely prudent contingency planning?
Or an attempt to influence the Court by demonstrating parliament can resolve to debate A50 whenever it wishes- and does not need a court instruction to do so?
Out of interest would the vote held on Wednesday night be considered by the legal experts on here to be sufficient to meet the Court's ruling if it upholds the High Court verdict?
In other news.
ISIS is advancing again in the Middle East, Palmyra has fallen once again in their hands.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38264992
"...Off the back of this and after some feline testing by some of the Supreme Court judges of the Government’s position..."
Is the word "feline" a typo for something or is this a reference I don't understand?
Catty = 1st definition here
1) If one is being catty, they are being subtly or indirectly insulting. Different from bitchy in that bitchiness is just mean, while cattiness is often clever and witty, and isn't ALWAYS completely mean (for example, a catty joke). Both males and females can be and are catty.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=catty
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-38242187
http://time.com/timelapse2016/
"Google Unveils a 3-Decade Time-Lapse of the Earth"
You can try and see if your neighbourhood changed much over the decades.
"'Cash for places’: leading private schools accept six-figure sums from rich overseas parents desperate to get their child admitted"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/top-public-school-willing-accept-donations-secure-places-overseas/
They could probably just write a cheque.
I love how the some of the banker-spankers suddenly seem to have forgotten that they are supposed to hate rich city people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/38225245
Alphabet Donated Its Employees' Holiday Gifts To Charity
http://m.slashdot.org/story/319813
Think Faisal Ialam, Beth Rigby and others may have some considerable concerns
Now, if parliament stymied Brexit on the other hand, then she would need to call an election
That the government seems prepared with quick measures in the event of a ruling against them shows the ruling is not that important in terms of Brexit though, not really, despite that being the instigator, since they are ready to move ahead by different means anyway, but settling a technical question about limits of the prerogative.
The advocates making the cases certainly won't bamboozle the Supreme Court - they looked an extremely impressive and accessibly human team - but the citing of cases, precedent and law, and the teasing out of the arguments surrounding them ought to be likely to affect the thought processes of the justices.
Oh, and I'd add my name to those who think this an excellent article. Cheers, Alastair.
They can depart from precedent, and there is an extent to which the court favours the status quo, but on this particular issue (and the royal prerogative more generally) there is no firm status quo.
That said, the SC spent plenty of time discussing precedent and fell about laughing at one point when discussing the de Keyser hotel case.
I read the transcript as well, I think you really have to do both!
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/clarence-thomas-supreme-court/471582/
https://twitter.com/JvdLD/status/807176824451170309
Kirk Douglas turns 100 today. It gives me an excuse to dig out my favourite heckle. Kirk’s late son, Eric Douglas, pursued a career as a stand-up comic, which came unstuck faced with the wit of an audience at the Comedy Store in London.
Angered by the hostile reaction to his dire routine, he lost his temper and shouted: “I’m Kirk Douglas’s son!” To which one audience member stood up and replied: “No, I’m Kirk Douglas’s son.” And another. And another . . .
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/807367318254784512
Some friend you are.
I've called these wrong before, and people probably overstate the importance of the fact that Pannick is the best "performer". But he's also got the best case, and I'd see the current odds as fair or even slightly too generous to HM Government.
It wasn't some blow-hard like Mr Justice Peter Smith, coming up with weird nonsense that will be swept aside. It's strong. Was enough said in the Supreme Court to shift it? I don't feel it.
Lord Taylor of Blackburn (Lab) - unfortunately died after traffic accident outside Parliament
Baroness Oona King (Lab) - gone on Leave of Absence as moving to US to work for YouTube
Lord Loomba (LD) - has resigned from Lib Dems - now sitting as non-affiliated
Lord Rana (Crossbench) - has joined the Conservatives, now sitting as a Conservative
Revised State of the Parties:
Con 256, Lab 204, LD 103, Crossbench 180, Others 66, Total 809
So the Lab + LD lead over Con is now down to 51. For reference it was 118 in June 2011.
Higher Con turnout is such that earlier this week, Con actually outvoted Lab + LD by one vote on a well attended Division - though still lost the Division due to Crossbenchers.
Under the radar the Lords dynamics are changing - if Con can get Crossbench support they have every chance of winning Divisions - something to keep in mind re any awkward Lab / Lib Dem amendments to any Brexit Bill.
Even Andrew Neil was caught unprepared on Daily Politics when a Lab MP said Cameron had appointed 220 more Peers in the last 6 years - impression given to viewer (unchallenged) was that the number of Peers had gone up by 220.
In fact it's gone up by 20 - because in the same period 200 have died or retired.
There's huge turnover - appointments, deaths, retirements and quite a lot of Peers changing party as well - usually in or out of Crossbench but there were two defections from Lib Dem to Con in the summer (Nicholson and Manzoor).
Dave Gorman recently did a whole show on how his wikipedia contained some nonsense and that the lie spread to MSM, and after removal of the lie on wiki it was then replaced and was "validated" because somebody had a link to a MSM piece...who originally got their "fact" from....wikipedia.