politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New entrant Ed Balls moves immediately to 3rd place in latest

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Zac Goldsmith being searched for more than Sarah Olney 100: 88 in Richmond Park for the last day.

Say Lib Dems 43%, implies Zac ~ 48%.

Perhaps Tories checking if he is really being supported by UKIP?

A search on a name isn't necessarily positive.

Pulpstar said:

PAW said:

Iridium - still in business, next launch is Dec 16th

Which provider ?

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Pulpstar said:

Zac Goldsmith being searched for more than Sarah Olney 100: 88 in Richmond Park for the last day.

Say Lib Dems 43%, implies Zac ~ 48%.

Perhaps Tories checking if he is really being supported by UKIP?

A search on a name isn't necessarily positive.

This had a decent correlation for the US. People tend to search who they've voted for (Don't ask me why)

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, if Tony Blair wants to make a political comeback, he needs to go on Strictly 2017

For 45 Minutes?

foxinsoxuk said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, if Tony Blair wants to make a political comeback, he needs to go on Strictly 2017

For 45 Minutes?

He would get a rocketing from the public.

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

The lobby losing huge amounts on Richmond would pretty much cap off a remarkable year...

Won't be more than a few minutes before the LibDems to win drops below 3 on betfair

LadyBucket said:

Just got back from shopping in Manchester City Centre, it was HEAVING. No personal space and queues everywhere.

I switched on LBC, only to hear that Ed Balls would be on shortly. Iain Dale described him as "Britain's favourite politician." Have I missed something and he has been mysteriously re-elected to Parliament? Does Iain Dale really think the public are that qullible? To me, he will always be a thug in a suit and no amount of trying to reinvent himself, will change my mind.

TGOHF said:

MTimT said:

A healthy doses of counter-MSM-ism from The Hon John Redwood here:

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6451/it_isn_t_britain_that_s_confused_about_brexit_it_s_the_eu

He has got a point - but the MSM does despise a Con run , free market Uk so it's no surprise no one else is paying attention.

LadyBucket said:

I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

LadyBucket said:

I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:

LadyBucket said:

I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

I'm not sure that May should be so worried about the "remain" media. There is plenty on the other side here, this is not a Trump-Media situation where every paper and news channel was almost universally hostile.

However it is conceivable that the balance could shift more to how it was in the mid 90s where every negative story was ruthlessly pursued and sometimes blown out of proportion. It's very tough to defend against when you also have to govern.

LadyBucket said:

They really need to pull him off and take the flak.

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

david_herdson said:

In reality, they'll have driven themselves up a cul-de-sac and provided the Tories with lots of quotes for use in the South West.

If Brexit were on track and the Cabinet had a coherent and united position you might be correct. A flustered Boris Johnson shouting 'take back control' from a lift suggests the Lib Dems are playing it right and it will be downhill for the Tories from now on.

lol.

The Tories are SIXTEEN POINTS AHEAD in the polls, and the Lib Dems are on a mighty 7%.

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

david_herdson said:

In reality, they'll have driven themselves up a cul-de-sac and provided the Tories with lots of quotes for use in the South West.

If Brexit were on track and the Cabinet had a coherent and united position you might be correct. A flustered Boris Johnson shouting 'take back control' from a lift suggests the Lib Dems are playing it right and it will be downhill for the Tories from now on.

lol.

The Tories are SIXTEEN POINTS AHEAD in the polls, and the Lib Dems are on a mighty 7%.

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:

LadyBucket said:

I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

I'm not sure that May should be so worried about the "remain" media. There is plenty on the other side here, this is not a Trump-Media situation where every paper and news channel was almost universally hostile.

However it is conceivable that the balance could shift more to how it was in the mid 90s where every negative story was ruthlessly pursued and sometimes blown out of proportion. It's very tough to defend against when you also have to govern.

This is one of the big strength's of Trump's position, the media has almost zero influence. He didn't need them in the campaign, he doesn't need them now.

FF43 said:

Can anyone explain why Boris Johnson is more popular than David Davis. Personally I think Mr Davis blinded by his ideology - other people's milages may vary. But I also think Mr Davis to be sincere and hard working. Mr Johnson doesn't have these saving graces - or indeed any that I can think of.

nunu said:

SeanT said:

All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

All the lefties soberly agreed about this post-truth Nazi ideology poisoning the system.

Only problem: Hispanics really DO have lower average IQs than whites or east Asians. It's a fact: a provable scientific, uncomfortable fact, but one that the Left has decided we must all ignore, in favour of their post-reality world, where what they wish to believe becomes the truth. Or post-truth.

http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:

LadyBucket said:

I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

I'm not sure that May should be so worried about the "remain" media. There is plenty on the other side here, this is not a Trump-Media situation where every paper and news channel was almost universally hostile.

However it is conceivable that the balance could shift more to how it was in the mid 90s where every negative story was ruthlessly pursued and sometimes blown out of proportion. It's very tough to defend against when you also have to govern.

This is one of the big strength's of Trump's position, the media has almost zero influence. He didn't need them in the campaign, he doesn't need them now.

Yes Trump has so far proven to be the absolute master of turning a hostile press against itself and his political opponents. So far he shows no sign of losing his touch.

SeanT said:

Ugh. Jet lag.

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/804377572167426048

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/804368028930478080

Un-believable !!!

Old numbers (From @Redistrict)

Trump 2,954,783
Clinton 2,890,409

So Trump's margin drops 18k in a critical state due to the biggest city not being able to update their results till 22 days after the bloody election.

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LadyBucket said:

I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

It has no choice but wait for the Supreme Court ruling in January. I agree the broadcast media are in full anti Brexit mode and that Boris has been found out, but fortunately not as PM.

Zac looks like he may have committed political suicide but if he loses it will only increase the narrative that powerful forces are trying to stop the democratic will of the people.

However, leaving the EU has gone too far to be stopped and I would expect TM to serve A50 at the earliest opportunity and to get on with negotiating our divorce with the EU even as it convulses throughout the union with the widespread rise of anti EU sentiment.

Mrs May could have passed a one line A50 bill a couple of months ago, if she was bothered.

IanB2 said:

It seems to me that if you think the LibDems are going to win, you back them now and wait until a very nice profit drops into your account in about eight hours time and, if you don't, you still back them now and aim to cash out at a profit some time between 9pm and midnight.

SeanT said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

All the lefties soberly agreed about this post-truth Nazi ideology poisoning the system.

Only problem: Hispanics really DO have lower average IQs than whites or east Asians. It's a fact: a provable scientific, uncomfortable fact, but one that the Left has decided we must all ignore, in favour of their post-reality world, where what they wish to believe becomes the truth. Or post-truth.

http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia

I had to use Rense as an admittedly iffy source because this stuff about race and IQ is so sensitive hardly anyone will run it, even though it is accepted science.

Here's a scholarly article on the subject

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301303123_Genetic_and_Environmental_Determinants_of_IQ_in_Black_White_and_Hispanic_Americans_A_Meta-analysis_and_New_Analysis

Now, you can argue that IQ tests are valueless or biased (though liberals are oddly keen to cite them when they want to save some poor dim soul from being executed in US jails), or you can argue that all these differences are environmental (though not many experts would agree: most accept that is some element of heritability)

What you can't do is baldly say there are no differences in observed average IQ between races. Because there ARE.

nunu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The allegation about hug a Hitler's team on 9/11 is quite stunning even by what we already know about red ken.

Red Ken needs to log off Facebook every now and again.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

matt said:

rcs1000 said:

I'm rereading Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. What a fabulous book.

Like a lot of Adams' work, it's very good up to roughly half way through then fades badly. I understand that the publishers had to apply a great deal of pressure to get him to complete books so perhaps there may be a direct relationship between the two.

I first heard it serialised on Radio 4 when I was a lad. It was the only time that I've ever spent the week waiting in anticipation for the next episode of a radio show. I thought the TV series wasn't badly done either, but didn't have quite the same magic. I read and enjoyed the book afterwards, but I agree that the whole joke started to wear a bit thin in subsequent books.

david_herdson said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

The lobby losing huge amounts on Richmond would pretty much cap off a remarkable year...

Just questioned Peck about the basis for this and his one-word answer was 'Brexit'. Not being near to the action, this seems pretty flimsy to me but I guess we'll see. Either way, it strikes me that the Lib Dems have been distracted like a cat with a reflected light. They'll believe that their election machine is up and running again on the basis of a highly unusual constituency and a fairly unusual election. In reality, they'll have driven themselves up a cul-de-sac and provided the Tories with lots of quotes for use in the South West.

chestnut said:

I imagine that a great many MPs will be worried if a Brexit based vote leads to a change of MP in Richmond.

Most MPs are on the wrong side of their constituents on this issue and won't welcome it becoming the decisive factor.

SeanT said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.


http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia

I had to use Rense as an admittedly iffy source because this stuff about race and IQ is so sensitive hardly anyone will run it, even though it is accepted science.



What you can't do is baldly say there are no differences in observed average IQ between races. Because there ARE.

Maybe. I'll have to read more about it. But If we accept people of west african descent are good sprinters and east africans are good long distance runners because of their genetics I guess we have be open to some races being better at maths etc.

Quite.

But my point wasn't really racial, it was more an observation that the Left lives in its own post-truth world, a Trumpery of liberalism, and has done so for many years. This is just one example, an uncomfortable scientific fact which the Left has successfully rendered invisible, by making the mere discussion of it a swift route to career suicide.

So we reach the point when no one knows these uncomfortable facts, and when they are occasionally discussed everyone reacts with bewildered horror, and refuses to believe that they can possibly be true. Even though they are true.

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/804389886069534721

Why would the Tories be gloomy, they weren't standing.

SeanT said:

Rexel56 said:

It may be that the distribution of IQ scores for one race is positioned to the left of another and that the mean IQ is therefore lower... to prejudge on that basis that an individual from the former must be less intelligent than one from the latter is still racist.

Which is why no one on this site has made the latter assertion.