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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New entrant Ed Balls moves immediately to 3rd place in latest

SystemSystem Posts: 12,264
edited December 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New entrant Ed Balls moves immediately to 3rd place in latest YouGov favourability ratings

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Comments

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2016
    first, unlike Balls!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,152
    Second, like Remain!
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    So Blair won three elections and Corbyn is almost twice as popular. I love bar charts.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,152
    And very nice.. PB's own polling!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    You gov unfavourability ratings more like

    Ed third at minus 15 after all that Strictly exposure.. Chortle
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,268
    Blair nearly as unpopular in the UK as Trump.

    How's that new party coming along, Tony?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    We're seeing this with a few polls, Mrs May's ratings on the slide.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We're seeing this with a few polls, Mrs May's ratings on the slide.

    Yes, but what matters is support among Tory voters. Is there a VI breakdown to these figures?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    FPT: F1: a look back at this season, and ahead to next:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/a-look-back-at-2016-and-ahead-to-2017.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    At least it wasn't described as brisk

    @paulwaugh: I'm told turnout in Richmond Park is much higher than expected in by elections at this stage in day ie strong grey vote. Cd be good for Zac

    But LibDems expect boost for them later from commuters (many of whose jobs rely on soft Brexit) returning home and voting
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We're seeing this with a few polls, Mrs May's ratings on the slide.

    Yes, but what matters is support among Tory voters. Is there a VI breakdown to these figures?
    I think Mike's got the breakdown (HINT HINT)

    I think they'll be on the YouGov site shortly
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Any ETA for the result in Self-Indulgent South?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    Just think how popular Theresa May would be if she went on Strictly!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Ed Balls.

    Can't be MP. Can't be CotE. Can dance a little.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    On topic, if Tony Blair wants to make a political comeback, he needs to go on Strictly 2017
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    At least it wasn't described as brisk

    @paulwaugh: I'm told turnout in Richmond Park is much higher than expected in by elections at this stage in day ie strong grey vote. Cd be good for Zac

    But LibDems expect boost for them later from commuters (many of whose jobs rely on soft Brexit) returning home and voting

    Handy that Davis' comments about a potential soft Brexit came out today and all those commuters reading the standard will see them then, eh?
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    I think that's pretty bad for Balls. My impression at least is that people tend to warm to politicians a bit when they're not being politicians.

    (Unless they're Tony Blair)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,916
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Any ETA for the result in Self-Indulgent South?

    BBC coverage ends at 3am. So I'd reckon 3:30am.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    Tony Blair to launch new institute for centre-ground politics

    Former PM says the organisation will be a response to the growing global forces of right and leftwing populism

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/01/tony-blair-to-launch-new-institute-for-centre-ground-politics
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We're seeing this with a few polls, Mrs May's ratings on the slide.

    Yes, but what matters is support among Tory voters. Is there a VI breakdown to these figures?
    I think Mike's got the breakdown (HINT HINT)

    I think they'll be on the YouGov site shortly
    The full breakdown will be published on the YouGov website.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    At least it wasn't described as brisk

    @paulwaugh: I'm told turnout in Richmond Park is much higher than expected in by elections at this stage in day ie strong grey vote. Cd be good for Zac

    But LibDems expect boost for them later from commuters (many of whose jobs rely on soft Brexit) returning home and voting

    Handy that Davis' comments about a potential soft Brexit came out today and all those commuters reading the standard will see them then, eh?
    Every bloody by-0eelction they tell us turnout is up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,916
    I'm rereading Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. What a fabulous book.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,152
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Any ETA for the result in Self-Indulgent South?

    BBC coverage ends at 3am. So I'd reckon 3:30am.
    Three and a quarter hours of late night political chat. Just glorious!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Any ETA for the result in Self-Indulgent South?

    The BBC show for the result starts at 11.45pm and ends at 3am, so I reckon we're looking like a result around 2am/2.30am
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Government resignation klaxon - Lord Freud has resigned as DWP minister for welfare reform.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    If this is a blowout for Zac, which isn't out of the question, does it put pressure on Farron? The parish council leader is unsuited to run the party at such an important stage in ir political history. As much as I hate to say it, I think Clegg should come back.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    MaxPB said:

    If this is a blowout for Zac, which isn't out of the question, does it put pressure on Farron? The parish council leader is unsuited to run the party at such an important stage in ir political history. As much as I hate to say it, I think Clegg should come back.

    A Zac majority of fewer than 2,500 is the optimal result for me
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    FPT, rcs1000
    rcs1000 said:

    People want to read stories that reinforce their own prejudices.

    image
    (From smbc.com)
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Not sure if Ed Balls on -15 is particularly good to be honest, after all the favourable publicity he received with Strictly Come Dancing, what happens now that he’s off the box and out of the lime light?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,916
    Andy_Cooke said:

    FPT, rcs1000

    rcs1000 said:

    People want to read stories that reinforce their own prejudices.

    image
    (From smbc.com)
    Brilliant
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. 1000/Mr. Eagles, cheers.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    MaxPB said:

    If this is a blowout for Zac, which isn't out of the question, does it put pressure on Farron? The parish council leader is unsuited to run the party at such an important stage in ir political history. As much as I hate to say it, I think Clegg should come back.

    This is clearly a straight fight between the Lib Dem and the UKIP-backed candidate, who runs a campaign based on lies and falsehood. Obviously, he is going to win, because that is the way politics works these days. No blame to those who fight cleanly, Mr Max.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Inside info, or getting high on their own supply ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,916
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Weren't huge sums bet on Remain and Clinton?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    The allegation about hug a Hitler's team on 9/11 is quite stunning even by what we already know about red ken.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Weren't huge sums bet on Remain and Clinton?
    By the lobby? I wouldn't know.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Weren't huge sums bet on Remain and Clinton?
    And at the Oldham West by-election....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Weren't huge sums bet on Remain and Clinton?
    Clinton would have won Richmond (Vs Trump) by almost DC margins though..
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Inside info, or getting high on their own supply ?
    The only inside information that's valuable at this stage is on postal voting - and it is a criminal offence to pass that on in any way. And I don't know.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Weren't huge sums bet on Remain and Clinton?
    I don't care how likely an outcome is perceived, anyone betting a significant proportion of the wealth at what, 4/7 on Clinton, was it 2/7 on Remain, is an idiot.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Inside info, or getting high on their own supply ?
    It's a dangerous game to bet 'huge' on a by-election where the odds are only 2 to 1 at best. That said, Zac doesn't have the backing of a ground game so, his grip is tenuous. If I had a bet, it would have been on Libs all along.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,152
    Dixie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Inside info, or getting high on their own supply ?
    It's a dangerous game to bet 'huge' on a by-election where the odds are only 2 to 1 at best. That said, Zac doesn't have the backing of a ground game so, his grip is tenuous. If I had a bet, it would have been on Libs all along.
    Just FYI... I've been triggered by your use of the words "ground game" :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    If Zac Goldsmith does win, when he returns to the Commons, which side will he be sitting on? I'm assuming the opposition benches
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    https://twitter.com/BestoftheMail/status/804324349322870785
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MaxPB said:

    If this is a blowout for Zac, which isn't out of the question, does it put pressure on Farron? The parish council leader is unsuited to run the party at such an important stage in ir political history. As much as I hate to say it, I think Clegg should come back.

    I am sure Lib Dems will take notice and act on recommendation from a rabid Conservative Leaver .
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,357
    edited December 2016
    FPT
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PAW said:

    Is it possible/likely for someone to have a mobile phone bill of £2500/year - a UK phone, no out of the UK calls. Just personal use.

    Yup.

    If you're on the wrong tariff, the out of bundle costs can be expensive.

    My tariff is £75 a month.

    £35 for the device plan, and £40 for the airtime.

    O2 offers even more expensive tariffs than that.

    And I'm paying £40 a month for the iPad.
    I'm slightly baffled at how you achieve £2500/yr without actively setting out to be ripped off. If the person is a fool, then fair enough. It is possible to spend £1000 a month on hairdressers or flowers if you try.

    I think I am paying £28 or so a month for unlimited everything, except for a cap of 2000 minutes voice. The phone is a refurbed Samsung S6 that cost about £200 outright. If I really needed more than 35 hours voice calls I could just go via a decent VOIP service.

    If I want the iPad I just run it via the S6 hotspot.

    Dofferent planet, perhaps.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Tom Peck is also an obsessive and angry Remainer. One of the Ultras. Wants to abolish the British people and have Guy Verhoefstadt in Number 10.
    Do such people really exist? ;)
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    I haven't followed the LD campaign closely, but what they should have done is basically ignore Zac and campaign against the government/hard brexit entirely. If they can make it a referendum on hard brexit or May, they stand a chance - Zac is popular but he could just be an unfortunate collateral damage - voter loyalty to an MP only goes so far.

    If they have spent the time criticising Zac for flouncing off, backing brexit personally, etc, then they will surely lose.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    MattW said:

    >

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PAW said:

    Is it possible/likely for someone to have a mobile phone bill of £2500/year - a UK phone, no out of the UK calls. Just personal use.

    Yup.

    If you're on the wrong tariff, the out of bundle costs can be expensive.

    My tariff is £75 a month.

    £35 for the device plan, and £40 for the airtime.

    O2 offers even more expensive tariffs than that.

    And I'm paying £40 a month for the iPad.
    I'm slightly baffled at how you achieve £2500/yr without actively setting out to be ripped off. If the person is a fool, then fair enough. It is possible to spend £1000 a month on hairdressers if you try.

    I think I am paying £28 or so a month for unlimited everything, except for a cap of 2000 minutes voice. The phone is a refurbed Samsung S6 that cost about £200 outright. If I really needed more than 35 hours voice calls I could go via a VOIP service.

    If I want the iPad I just run it via the S6 hotspot.
    I spend quite a lot of time on the continent, so this allows me to use my data over there for free, which works out a lot cheaper.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    MarkSenior said:

    MaxPB said:

    If this is a blowout for Zac, which isn't out of the question, does it put pressure on Farron? The parish council leader is unsuited to run the party at such an important stage in ir political history. As much as I hate to say it, I think Clegg should come back.

    I am sure Lib Dems will take notice and act on recommendation from a rabid Conservative Leaver .
    I'm sure he means well ;-)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Submissions to the Supreme Court Article 50 case now include the Declaration of Arbroath.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,152
    Scott_P said:

    Submissions to the Supreme Court Article 50 case now include the Declaration of Arbroath.

    Does that actually have any legal force?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Does that actually have any legal force?

    We will soon find out!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Weren't huge sums bet on Remain and Clinton?
    (a) Yes (b) If only
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,761
    Dixie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Inside info, or getting high on their own supply ?
    It's a dangerous game to bet 'huge' on a by-election where the odds are only 2 to 1 at best. That said, Zac doesn't have the backing of a ground game so, his grip is tenuous. If I had a bet, it would have been on Libs all along.
    I think Zac has the usual Tory ground game. He is covering all polling stations with tellers and his supporters were out in force this morning at Barnes, Mortlake, Richmond and other commuter railway stations handing out news sheets to commuters on the way to work. The Tory ground game is impressive. It is usually not very visible and depends on phonework and street captains who look after their small patch of supporters. They know who their supporters are. They don't need the official Tory database. I wouldn't under-estimate them.

    On the other hand it is not anything as large as the LibDems who have literally hundreds of activists from all over the country. We're falling over one another. I've decided to conserve my strength for the big post 6pm push.

    Whether all this activist effort will swing it I really don't know. I'm still think Zac will win a majority of about 2,000. Perhaps a touch more.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,916
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BestoftheMail/status/804324349322870785

    Given that almost all the Mail's costs will be in sterling, and its revenue increasingly dollars, they should be a Brexit beneficiary.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,152
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Does that actually have any legal force?

    We will soon find out!
    Would be amusing for the Supreme Court to find it valid, and declare Scotland independent :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MattW said:

    >

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PAW said:

    Is it possible/likely for someone to have a mobile phone bill of £2500/year - a UK phone, no out of the UK calls. Just personal use.

    Yup.

    If you're on the wrong tariff, the out of bundle costs can be expensive.

    My tariff is £75 a month.

    £35 for the device plan, and £40 for the airtime.

    O2 offers even more expensive tariffs than that.

    And I'm paying £40 a month for the iPad.
    I'm slightly baffled at how you achieve £2500/yr without actively setting out to be ripped off. If the person is a fool, then fair enough. It is possible to spend £1000 a month on hairdressers if you try.

    I think I am paying £28 or so a month for unlimited everything, except for a cap of 2000 minutes voice. The phone is a refurbed Samsung S6 that cost about £200 outright. If I really needed more than 35 hours voice calls I could go via a VOIP service.

    If I want the iPad I just run it via the S6 hotspot.
    I spend quite a lot of time on the continent, so this allows me to use my data over there for free, which works out a lot cheaper.
    My mobile phone bills average about £1500-£2000 a year. Mainly because of data roaming abroad.

    I once ran up a single month's bill of £1400 using Google Maps in a really remote part of central Egypt, while researching a Tom Knox thriller...
    Have you seen the boxes you can get now that you prepay for data and you plug it in and it turns into basically a mobile router? Uses the 4G of the country you are in, without needing a different sim card each time or having to pay the crazy cost of data roaming and you get a mini wifi hotspot to boot.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BestoftheMail/status/804324349322870785

    Given that almost all the Mail's costs will be in sterling, and its revenue increasingly dollars, they should be a Brexit beneficiary.
    Don't they pay their US staff writers? It would explain a lot...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    1 AM must have been when I changed my mind on who was going to win.

    Trump Lays
    00:02:38 Lay 6.20 40.00 208.00
    00:26:54 Lay 6.60 20.00 112.00
    00:36:09 Lay 5.80 100.00 480.00
    00:48:38 Lay 5.30 100.00 430.00
    Clinton back
    00:57:26 Back 1.11 200.00 --
    Clinton lays
    01:16:11 Lay 1.13 700.00 91.00
    01:29:34 Lay 1.13 500.00 65.00
    01:41:24 Lay 1.15 500.00 75.00
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Submissions to the Supreme Court Article 50 case now include the Declaration of Arbroath.

    Does that actually have any legal force?
    No sure, I thought the Declaration of Arbroath was intended to confirm Scotland's status as an independent, sovereign state and asserting its rightes to use military force.

    I think things have changed a tad since 1320 however.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm rereading Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. What a fabulous book.

    Like a lot of Adams' work, it's very good up to roughly half way through then fades badly. I understand that the publishers had to apply a great deal of pressure to get him to complete books so perhaps there may be a direct relationship between the two.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Any ETA for the result in Self-Indulgent South?

    The BBC show for the result starts at 11.45pm and ends at 3am, so I reckon we're looking like a result around 2am/2.30am
    All filler, no killer. Given how rotten their GE programming is when there are at least a number of stories, how on earth are they going to fill that?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    edited December 2016
    SeanT said:

    Point of fact, right now £1 is worth over €1.19 - that is to say, sterling is stronger against the euro than it was for nearly all of the period 2009-2013.

    Hmmm and for much of 2014/15/16 it was worth €1.30+.

    EDIT: And just now was 1.1873.
    :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MattW said:

    >

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PAW said:

    Is it possible/likely for someone to have a mobile phone bill of £2500/year - a UK phone, no out of the UK calls. Just personal use.

    Yup.

    If you're on the wrong tariff, the out of bundle costs can be expensive.

    My tariff is £75 a month.

    £35 for the device plan, and £40 for the airtime.

    O2 offers even more expensive tariffs than that.

    And I'm paying £40 a month for the iPad.
    I'm slightly baffled at how you achieve £2500/yr without actively setting out to be ripped off. If the person is a fool, then fair enough. It is possible to spend £1000 a month on hairdressers if you try.

    I think I am paying £28 or so a month for unlimited everything, except for a cap of 2000 minutes voice. The phone is a refurbed Samsung S6 that cost about £200 outright. If I really needed more than 35 hours voice calls I could go via a VOIP service.

    If I want the iPad I just run it via the S6 hotspot.
    I spend quite a lot of time on the continent, so this allows me to use my data over there for free, which works out a lot cheaper.
    My mobile phone bills average about £1500-£2000 a year. Mainly because of data roaming abroad.

    I once ran up a single month's bill of £1400 using Google Maps in a really remote part of central Egypt, while researching a Tom Knox thriller...
    OGH was racking up huge bills when he went on his holidays to France & Spain, then I told him to switch to Three, and this plan, might be useful for you too

    http://www.three.co.uk/Discover/Phones/Feel_At_Home
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    edited December 2016
    I rewatched a bit of Fox's coverage - not sure I'd have reverse ferreted at 1 AM just on that, wary from their 2012 balls up I think they hung onto Clinton perhaps longer than CNN did (Who were brilliant)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    matt said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Any ETA for the result in Self-Indulgent South?

    The BBC show for the result starts at 11.45pm and ends at 3am, so I reckon we're looking like a result around 2am/2.30am
    All filler, no killer. Given how rotten their GE programming is when there are at least a number of stories, how on earth are they going to fill that?
    Well technically it is an extended This Week, so I'm assuming the first hour will be the normal/use stuff, then the next hour, it will be reporters saying x looks confident, y looks tense as the votes are counted.

    Then, kaboom, we have the result., and half an hour analysing what it means
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Does that actually have any legal force?

    We will soon find out!
    Would be amusing for the Supreme Court to find it valid, and declare Scotland independent :D
    Without an act in any parliament....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,152
    Pulpstar said:

    I rewatched a bit of Fox's coverage - not sure I'd have reverse ferreted at 1 AM just on that, wary from their 2012 balls up I think they hung onto Clinton perhaps longer than CNN did (Who were brilliant)

    I remember CNN's analysis with the map. Sublime. BBC could learn a lot from them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,268
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If Zac Goldsmith does win, when he returns to the Commons, which side will he be sitting on? I'm assuming the opposition benches

    Isn't it rather moot if he hardly ever turns up?!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,761
    edited December 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MattW said:

    >

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PAW said:

    Is it possible/likely for someone to have a mobile phone bill of £2500/year - a UK phone, no out of the UK calls. Just personal use.

    Yup.

    If you're on the wrong tariff, the out of bundle costs can be expensive.

    My tariff is £75 a month.

    £35 for the device plan, and £40 for the airtime.

    O2 offers even more expensive tariffs than that.

    And I'm paying £40 a month for the iPad.
    I'm slightly baffled at how you achieve £2500/yr without actively setting out to be ripped off. If the person is a fool, then fair enough. It is possible to spend £1000 a month on hairdressers if you try.

    I think I am paying £28 or so a month for unlimited everything, except for a cap of 2000 minutes voice. The phone is a refurbed Samsung S6 that cost about £200 outright. If I really needed more than 35 hours voice calls I could go via a VOIP service.

    If I want the iPad I just run it via the S6 hotspot.
    I spend quite a lot of time on the continent, so this allows me to use my data over there for free, which works out a lot cheaper.
    I have a monthly contract with Three that costs £22 which includes 2GB of data usable in most countries including USA, Australia, Bali, the Alps, Ireland plus free calls to and from the UK when I'm abroad.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    matt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm rereading Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. What a fabulous book.

    Like a lot of Adams' work, it's very good up to roughly half way through then fades badly. I understand that the publishers had to apply a great deal of pressure to get him to complete books so perhaps there may be a direct relationship between the two.
    It really shows in the 4th and 5th books. They're still worth the read though and so - to my surprise and delight - was Eoin Colfer's 6th installment, And Another Thing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    SimonStClare said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Submissions to the Supreme Court Article 50 case now include the Declaration of Arbroath.

    Does that actually have any legal force?
    No sure, I thought the Declaration of Arbroath was intended to confirm Scotland's status as an independent, sovereign state and asserting its rightes to use military force.

    I think things have changed a tad since 1320 however.
    What was the famous battlecry again? "They'll never take our freedom of movement?"
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tony Blair to launch new institute for centre-ground politics

    Former PM says the organisation will be a response to the growing global forces of right and leftwing populism

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/01/tony-blair-to-launch-new-institute-for-centre-ground-politics

    Will it be called "Institute for Sitting on the Fence"?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    perdix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tony Blair to launch new institute for centre-ground politics

    Former PM says the organisation will be a response to the growing global forces of right and leftwing populism

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/01/tony-blair-to-launch-new-institute-for-centre-ground-politics

    Will it be called "Institute for Sitting on the Fence"?

    It should be called the "Self Centre".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,268
    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby losing huge amounts on Richmond would pretty much cap off a remarkable year...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,761
    edited December 2016
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If Zac Goldsmith does win, when he returns to the Commons, which side will he be sitting on? I'm assuming the opposition benches

    Isn't it rather moot if he hardly ever turns up?!
    He has said he will sit on the opposition benches but will not vote against the Government for the sake of opposition.

    Edit: He said he would be a "critical friend".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MattW said:

    >

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PAW said:

    Is it possible/likely for someone to have a mobile phone bill of £2500/year - a UK phone, no out of the UK calls. Just personal use.

    Yup.

    If you're on the wrong tariff, the out of bundle costs can be expensive.

    My tariff is £75 a month.

    £35 for the device plan, and £40 for the airtime.

    O2 offers even more expensive tariffs than that.

    And I'm paying £40 a month for the iPad.
    I'm slightly baffled at how you achieve £2500/yr without actively setting out to be ripped off. If the person is a fool, then fair enough. It is possible to spend £1000 a month on hairdressers if you try.

    I think I am paying £28 or so a month for unlimited everything, except for a cap of 2000 minutes voice. The phone is a refurbed Samsung S6 that cost about £200 outright. If I really needed more than 35 hours voice calls I could go via a VOIP service.

    If I want the iPad I just run it via the S6 hotspot.
    I spend quite a lot of time on the continent, so this allows me to use my data over there for free, which works out a lot cheaper.
    I have a monthly contract with Three that costs £22 which includes 2GB of data usable in most countries including USA, Australia, Bali, the Alps, Ireland plus free calls to and from the UK when I'm abroad.
    The trouble is when you go off-piste - i.e. to somewhere like Africa or South America. No bundles cover these territories and using a smidgen of data costs squillions and buying local SIM cards is often a hassle (tho getting easier, everywhere)
    I think Elon Musk's internet satellite plan will sort this out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,227
    SimonStClare said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Submissions to the Supreme Court Article 50 case now include the Declaration of Arbroath.

    Does that actually have any legal force?
    No sure, I thought the Declaration of Arbroath was intended to confirm Scotland's status as an independent, sovereign state and asserting its rightes to use military force.

    I think things have changed a tad since 1320 however.
    Yeah, Arbroath is now a dump.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,995
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MattW said:

    >

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PAW said:

    Is it possible/likely for someone to have a mobile phone bill of £2500/year - a UK phone, no out of the UK calls. Just personal use.

    Yup.

    If you're on the wrong tariff, the out of bundle costs can be expensive.

    My tariff is £75 a month.

    £35 for the device plan, and £40 for the airtime.

    O2 offers even more expensive tariffs than that.

    And I'm paying £40 a month for the iPad.
    I'm slightly baffled at how you achieve £2500/yr without actively setting out to be ripped off. If the person is a fool, then fair enough. It is possible to spend £1000 a month on hairdressers if you try.

    I think I am paying £28 or so a month for unlimited everything, except for a cap of 2000 minutes voice. The phone is a refurbed Samsung S6 that cost about £200 outright. If I really needed more than 35 hours voice calls I could go via a VOIP service.

    If I want the iPad I just run it via the S6 hotspot.
    I spend quite a lot of time on the continent, so this allows me to use my data over there for free, which works out a lot cheaper.
    I have a monthly contract with Three that costs £22 which includes 2GB of data usable in most countries including USA, Australia, Bali, the Alps, Ireland plus free calls to and from the UK when I'm abroad.
    The trouble is when you go off-piste - i.e. to somewhere like Africa or South America. No bundles cover these territories and using a smidgen of data costs squillions and buying local SIM cards is often a hassle (tho getting easier, everywhere)
    I think Elon Musk's internet satellite plan will sort this out.
    Leave the mobile at home. I do for any big trip abroad and it does me no end of good (though I do end up finding a terminal to log onto PB from).
  • eekeek Posts: 28,795
    edited December 2016
    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MattW said:

    >

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PAW said:

    Is it possible/likely for someone to have a mobile phone bill of £2500/year - a UK phone, no out of the UK calls. Just personal use.

    Yup.

    If you're on the wrong tariff, the out of bundle costs can be expensive.

    My tariff is £75 a month.

    £35 for the device plan, and £40 for the airtime.

    O2 offers even more expensive tariffs than that.

    And I'm paying £40 a month for the iPad.
    I'm slightly baffled at how you achieve £2500/yr without actively setting out to be ripped off. If the person is a fool, then fair enough. It is possible to spend £1000 a month on hairdressers if you try.

    I think I am paying £28 or so a month for unlimited everything, except for a cap of 2000 minutes voice. The phone is a refurbed Samsung S6 that cost about £200 outright. If I really needed more than 35 hours voice calls I could go via a VOIP service.

    If I want the iPad I just run it via the S6 hotspot.
    I spend quite a lot of time on the continent, so this allows me to use my data over there for free, which works out a lot cheaper.
    I have a monthly contract with Three that costs £22 which includes 2GB of data usable in most countries including USA, Australia, Bali, the Alps, Ireland plus free calls to and from the UK when I'm abroad.
    The trouble is when you go off-piste - i.e. to somewhere like Africa or South America. No bundles cover these territories and using a smidgen of data costs squillions and buying local SIM cards is often a hassle (tho getting easier, everywhere)
    Take it you haven't been to Turkey recently....

    Used to be painful now its more I'll just go offline for the week / fortnight.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,995
    MarqueeMark said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby losing huge amounts on Richmond would pretty much cap off a remarkable year...
    Just questioned Peck about the basis for this and his one-word answer was 'Brexit'. Not being near to the action, this seems pretty flimsy to me but I guess we'll see. Either way, it strikes me that the Lib Dems have been distracted like a cat with a reflected light. They'll believe that their election machine is up and running again on the basis of a highly unusual constituency and a fairly unusual election. In reality, they'll have driven themselves up a cul-de-sac and provided the Tories with lots of quotes for use in the South West.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,995
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Submissions to the Supreme Court Article 50 case now include the Declaration of Arbroath.

    Does that actually have any legal force?
    I would have thought it rendered void by the Act of Union, if it ever had any legal standing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,899
    david_herdson said:

    In reality, they'll have driven themselves up a cul-de-sac and provided the Tories with lots of quotes for use in the South West.

    If Brexit were on track and the Cabinet had a coherent and united position you might be correct. A flustered Boris Johnson shouting 'take back control' from a lift suggests the Lib Dems are playing it right and it will be downhill for the Tories from now on.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,389
    david_herdson said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Submissions to the Supreme Court Article 50 case now include the Declaration of Arbroath.

    Does that actually have any legal force?
    I would have thought it rendered void by the Act of Union, if it ever had any legal standing.
    I'm hoping MacCormick v Lord Advocate is cited in the Article 50 appeal.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby = Westminster, specifically covering Parliament.

    Tom Peck is a lobby journalist himself.
    Weren't huge sums bet on Remain?
    Not from around 11pm onwards by PBers.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    DavidL said:

    SimonStClare said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Submissions to the Supreme Court Article 50 case now include the Declaration of Arbroath.

    Does that actually have any legal force?
    No sure, I thought the Declaration of Arbroath was intended to confirm Scotland's status as an independent, sovereign state and asserting its rightes to use military force.

    I think things have changed a tad since 1320 however.
    Yeah, Arbroath is now a dump.
    I couldn’t possibly comment – however, was intrigued to discover that six of tripadvisor’s 'Top 10 ‘Things to Do in Arbroath’ involved leaving Arbroath to visit somewhere else. QED.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    So Tony Blair being by far the most unpopular politician in Britain kind of buries the talking point of him being so popular because he won 3 GE's in a row a decade ago.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Barnesian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MattW said:

    >

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    PAW said:

    Is it possible/likely for someone to have a mobile phone bill of £2500/year - a UK phone, no out of the UK calls. Just personal use.

    Yup.

    If you're on the wrong tariff, the out of bundle costs can be expensive.

    My tariff is £75 a month.

    £35 for the device plan, and £40 for the airtime.

    O2 offers even more expensive tariffs than that.

    And I'm paying £40 a month for the iPad.
    I'm slightly baffled at how you achieve £2500/yr without actively setting out to be ripped off. If the person is a fool, then fair enough. It is possible to spend £1000 a month on hairdressers if you try.

    I think I am paying £28 or so a month for unlimited everything, except for a cap of 2000 minutes voice. The phone is a refurbed Samsung S6 that cost about £200 outright. If I really needed more than 35 hours voice calls I could go via a VOIP service.

    If I want the iPad I just run it via the S6 hotspot.
    I spend quite a lot of time on the continent, so this allows me to use my data over there for free, which works out a lot cheaper.
    I have a monthly contract with Three that costs £22 which includes 2GB of data usable in most countries including USA, Australia, Bali, the Alps, Ireland plus free calls to and from the UK when I'm abroad.
    The trouble is when you go off-piste - i.e. to somewhere like Africa or South America. No bundles cover these territories and using a smidgen of data costs squillions and buying local SIM cards is often a hassle (tho getting easier, everywhere)
    I think Elon Musk's internet satellite plan will sort this out.
    Is Iridium still up and running ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    MarqueeMark said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby losing huge amounts on Richmond would pretty much cap off a remarkable year...
    Won't be more than a few minutes before the LibDems to win drops below 3 on betfair
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Speedy said:

    So Tony Blair being by far the most unpopular politician in Britain kind of buries the talking point of him being so popular because he won 3 GE's in a row a decade ago.

    I'm crossing my fingers that he gives his all to his stop/soften Brexit idea. Should swing public opinion behind a clean Brexit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    SeanT said:

    Ugh. Jet lag.

    You of all people must know that its worse going than returning, from anywhere East incl Oz
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Zac Goldsmith being searched for more than Sarah Olney 100: 88 in Richmond Park for the last day.

    Say Lib Dems 43%, implies Zac ~ 48%.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,419
    Scott_P said:

    Submissions to the Supreme Court Article 50 case now include the Declaration of Arbroath.



    "It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,761
    Pulpstar said:

    Zac Goldsmith being searched for more than Sarah Olney 100: 88 in Richmond Park for the last day.

    Say Lib Dems 43%, implies Zac ~ 48%.

    Perhaps Tories checking if he is really being supported by UKIP?

    A search on a name isn't necessarily positive.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Iridium - still in business, next launch is Dec 16th
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Zac Goldsmith being searched for more than Sarah Olney 100: 88 in Richmond Park for the last day.

    Say Lib Dems 43%, implies Zac ~ 48%.

    Perhaps Tories checking if he is really being supported by UKIP?

    A search on a name isn't necessarily positive.
    This had a decent correlation for the US. People tend to search who they've voted for (Don't ask me why)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Zac Goldsmith being searched for more than Sarah Olney 100: 88 in Richmond Park for the last day.

    Say Lib Dems 43%, implies Zac ~ 48%.

    I'm wary of using Google Trends for elections too much, in the US on election day Trump lead Hillary by 59-41.

    But Trump was beating Hillary on that metric forever and in all states.

    It is perhaps only useful too see about late deciders.
This discussion has been closed.