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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New entrant Ed Balls moves immediately to 3rd place in latest

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  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Zac Goldsmith being searched for more than Sarah Olney 100: 88 in Richmond Park for the last day.

    Say Lib Dems 43%, implies Zac ~ 48%.

    Perhaps Tories checking if he is really being supported by UKIP?

    A search on a name isn't necessarily positive.
    He can't help it if UKIP supports him.

    The Lib Dems could have helped bringing Bob Geldof onto the campaign trail.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    PAW said:

    Iridium - still in business, next launch is Dec 16th

    Which provider ?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,270
    edited December 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    PAW said:

    Iridium - still in business, next launch is Dec 16th

    Which provider ?
    SpaceX. I just came on here to say that. ;)

    Subject to regulators agreeing with the report of what caused their rocket to self-ignite.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby losing huge amounts on Richmond would pretty much cap off a remarkable year...
    Just questioned Peck about the basis for this and his one-word answer was 'Brexit'. Not being near to the action, this seems pretty flimsy to me but I guess we'll see. Either way, it strikes me that the Lib Dems have been distracted like a cat with a reflected light. They'll believe that their election machine is up and running again on the basis of a highly unusual constituency and a fairly unusual election. In reality, they'll have driven themselves up a cul-de-sac and provided the Tories with lots of quotes for use in the South West.
    Looking on the bright side, if the LibDems do win Richmond, we can tell Farron he has had his second vote on Brexit. Now piss off....
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Pulpstar - spaceX return to flight from Vandenberg.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,014
    edited December 2016
    Essexit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Zac Goldsmith being searched for more than Sarah Olney 100: 88 in Richmond Park for the last day.

    Say Lib Dems 43%, implies Zac ~ 48%.

    Perhaps Tories checking if he is really being supported by UKIP?

    A search on a name isn't necessarily positive.
    He can't help it if UKIP supports him.

    The Lib Dems could have helped bringing Bob Geldof onto the campaign trail.
    I agree with your comment on Bob Geldof. People don't like these celebrity endorsements.

    My point on UKIP was a possible explanation of why more people might be searching on Zac than on Sarah. Tory Remainers may be having doubts about Zac and want to check the facts.

    Edit: Google Zac UKIP
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    A healthy doses of counter-MSM-ism from The Hon John Redwood here:

    http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6451/it_isn_t_britain_that_s_confused_about_brexit_it_s_the_eu
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048

    Pulpstar said:

    PAW said:

    Iridium - still in business, next launch is Dec 16th

    Which provider ?
    SpaceX. I just came on here to say that. ;)

    Subject to regulators agreeing with the report of what caused their rocket to self-ignite.
    Regulators in hock to Boeing I bet >.>
  • Options
    Why does MSmithson refer to our PM as "TMay"?
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    On topic, if Tony Blair wants to make a political comeback, he needs to go on Strictly 2017

    For 45 Minutes?
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    Just got back from shopping in Manchester City Centre, it was HEAVING. No personal space and queues everywhere.

    I switched on LBC, only to hear that Ed Balls would be on shortly. Iain Dale described him as "Britain's favourite politician." Have I missed something and he has been mysteriously re-elected to Parliament? Does Iain Dale really think the public are that qullible? To me, he will always be a thug in a suit and no amount of trying to reinvent himself, will change my mind.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048

    Why does MSmithson refer to our PM as "TMay"?

    Teresa May :) ?
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,014
    edited December 2016
    Deleted. It was a photo of the Labour HQ in Richmond Park this afternoon, deserted except for a single fellow slumped with his head in his hands. Not fair to publish it really.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    edited December 2016


    Ed Balls.

    Can't be MP. Can't be CotE. Can dance a little.

    Dance-ellor of the Ex-Cha-Cha-Cha!
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Zac Goldsmith being searched for more than Sarah Olney 100: 88 in Richmond Park for the last day.

    Say Lib Dems 43%, implies Zac ~ 48%.

    Perhaps Tories checking if he is really being supported by UKIP?

    A search on a name isn't necessarily positive.
    This had a decent correlation for the US. People tend to search who they've voted for (Don't ask me why)
    Actually I think it's people searching about the most interesting (or controversial) candidate.

    But we don't need to speculate, google provides the answer to what people are searching anyway.

    In the case of Goldsmith they are searching about the polls, the odds and ukip.
    In the case of Olney they are searching her wikipedia page to find who she is.

    There is also a small uptick for the option of none of the above.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MTimT said:
    He has got a point - but the MSM does despise a Con run , free market Uk so it's no surprise no one else is paying attention.
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    Good evening, everyone.

    Lady Bucket, he isn't mine.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Why does MSmithson refer to our PM as "TMay"?

    Teresa May :) ?
    I think Teresa May is in another line of work!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    On topic, if Tony Blair wants to make a political comeback, he needs to go on Strictly 2017

    For 45 Minutes?
    He would get a rocketing from the public.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    God help us if the lib dem's have won,won't hear the last of it on here.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    £107k matched on Richmond Park - Not quite the £100m + on the US election :(
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,270
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PAW said:

    Iridium - still in business, next launch is Dec 16th

    Which provider ?
    SpaceX. I just came on here to say that. ;)

    Subject to regulators agreeing with the report of what caused their rocket to self-ignite.
    Regulators in hock to Boeing I bet >.>
    ;)

    Or they want to ensure SpaceX really knows what went on and, perhaps or importantly, will be able to stop it self-igniting again!

    An amusing thing about this is that within a few hours of the explosion someone on the excellent SpaceX subreddit came up with the correct failure mechanism. The thread was deleted as it was speculative and virtually no-one believed it!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016

    On topic, if Tony Blair wants to make a political comeback, he needs to go on Strictly 2017

    For 45 Minutes?
    He would get a rocketing from the public.
    I got the recipe ready:

    http://www.jamieoliver.com/recipes/vegetables-recipes/scrummy-warm-rocket-salad/

    Nothing like the audience throwing warm vegetables.
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    If Zac Goldsmith does win, when he returns to the Commons, which side will he be sitting on? I'm assuming the opposition benches

    Presumably next to Carswell and the other 104 UKIP MPs
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby losing huge amounts on Richmond would pretty much cap off a remarkable year...
    Won't be more than a few minutes before the LibDems to win drops below 3 on betfair
    Just about to tick to 3.0 (£2 left at 3.05) and a 35% chance
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,871

    On topic, if Tony Blair wants to make a political comeback, he needs to go on Strictly 2017

    Strictly Come Invading? Partnered with his friend Vlad with whom he shares a similar popularity score.

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594

    Just got back from shopping in Manchester City Centre, it was HEAVING. No personal space and queues everywhere.

    I switched on LBC, only to hear that Ed Balls would be on shortly. Iain Dale described him as "Britain's favourite politician." Have I missed something and he has been mysteriously re-elected to Parliament? Does Iain Dale really think the public are that qullible? To me, he will always be a thug in a suit and no amount of trying to reinvent himself, will change my mind.

    A very large part of our economic growth consists of consumer spending.

    Nothing new in this, of course, but one does wonder at its sustainability.
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    matt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm rereading Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. What a fabulous book.

    Like a lot of Adams' work, it's very good up to roughly half way through then fades badly. I understand that the publishers had to apply a great deal of pressure to get him to complete books so perhaps there may be a direct relationship between the two.
    I first heard it serialised on Radio 4 when I was a lad. It was the only time that I've ever spent the week waiting in anticipation for the next episode of a radio show. I thought the TV series wasn't badly done either, but didn't have quite the same magic. I read and enjoyed the book afterwards, but I agree that the whole joke started to wear a bit thin in subsequent books.
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    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,326
    FF43 said:

    On topic, if Tony Blair wants to make a political comeback, he needs to go on Strictly 2017

    Strictly Come Invading? Partnered with his friend Vlad with whom he shares a similar popularity score.

    Dancing to 'I wanna sex you up' I suppose?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TGOHF said:

    MTimT said:
    He has got a point - but the MSM does despise a Con run , free market Uk so it's no surprise no one else is paying attention.
    The media also hate Corbyn and Trump to the point of irrationality, example the Washington Post is suggesting that Trump is a COMMUNIST :

    https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/804337708013326336
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    @Speedy Gee I bet all the Carrier employees are worrying about Trump's motives for apparently saving their jobs !

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048

    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

    I'm not sure that May should be so worried about the "remain" media. There is plenty on the other side here, this is not a Trump-Media situation where every paper and news channel was almost universally hostile.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,326
    Pulpstar said:

    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

    I'm not sure that May should be so worried about the "remain" media. There is plenty on the other side here, this is not a Trump-Media situation where every paper and news channel was almost universally hostile.
    However it is conceivable that the balance could shift more to how it was in the mid 90s where every negative story was ruthlessly pursued and sometimes blown out of proportion. It's very tough to defend against when you also have to govern.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597

    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

    Mrs May would appear to be on a win-win here?
  • Options

    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

    It has no choice but wait for the Supreme Court ruling in January. I agree the broadcast media are in full anti Brexit mode and that Boris has been found out, but fortunately not as PM.

    Zac looks like he may have committed political suicide but if he loses it will only increase the narrative that powerful forces are trying to stop the democratic will of the people.

    However, leaving the EU has gone too far to be stopped and I would expect TM to serve A50 at the earliest opportunity and to get on with negotiating our divorce with the EU even as it convulses throughout the union with the widespread rise of anti EU sentiment.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048

    Pulpstar said:

    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

    I'm not sure that May should be so worried about the "remain" media. There is plenty on the other side here, this is not a Trump-Media situation where every paper and news channel was almost universally hostile.
    However it is conceivable that the balance could shift more to how it was in the mid 90s where every negative story was ruthlessly pursued and sometimes blown out of proportion. It's very tough to defend against when you also have to govern.
    This is one of the big strength's of Trump's position, the media has almost zero influence. He didn't need them in the campaign, he doesn't need them now.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Looking on the bright side, if the LibDems do win Richmond, we can tell Farron he has had his second vote on Brexit. Now piss off....

    That sounds a bit like a concession, Mr Mark! :)
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    They really need to pull him off and take the flak.

    Messy.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Pulpstar said:

    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

    I'm not sure that May should be so worried about the "remain" media. There is plenty on the other side here, this is not a Trump-Media situation where every paper and news channel was almost universally hostile.
    However it is conceivable that the balance could shift more to how it was in the mid 90s where every negative story was ruthlessly pursued and sometimes blown out of proportion. It's very tough to defend against when you also have to govern.
    That didn't stop Trump being elected.

    They could simply do what Trump did, communicate directly with the voters on Twitter and make critical announcements by posting videos on Facebook or Instagram.

    There is now a way to win, even if the entire world seems to be against you.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,871
    Can anyone explain why Boris Johnson is more popular than David Davis. Personally I think Mr Davis blinded by his ideology - other people's milages may vary. But I also think Mr Davis to be sincere and hard working. Mr Johnson doesn't have these saving graces - or indeed any that I can think of.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    edited December 2016
    If the conservatives lose Richmond, might as well have two new runways.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    SeanT said:

    In reality, they'll have driven themselves up a cul-de-sac and provided the Tories with lots of quotes for use in the South West.

    If Brexit were on track and the Cabinet had a coherent and united position you might be correct. A flustered Boris Johnson shouting 'take back control' from a lift suggests the Lib Dems are playing it right and it will be downhill for the Tories from now on.
    lol.

    The Tories are SIXTEEN POINTS AHEAD in the polls, and the Lib Dems are on a mighty 7%.
    That is why I have trouble to believe the LD saying they are going to win tonight.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    The allegation about hug a Hitler's team on 9/11 is quite stunning even by what we already know about red ken.

    Red Ken needs to log off Facebook every now and again.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    SeanT said:

    In reality, they'll have driven themselves up a cul-de-sac and provided the Tories with lots of quotes for use in the South West.

    If Brexit were on track and the Cabinet had a coherent and united position you might be correct. A flustered Boris Johnson shouting 'take back control' from a lift suggests the Lib Dems are playing it right and it will be downhill for the Tories from now on.
    lol.

    The Tories are SIXTEEN POINTS AHEAD in the polls, and the Lib Dems are on a mighty 7%.
    Indeed. Many lols.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594

    They really need to pull him off and take the flak.

    Messy.
    Frit. Not a good look for a Tory.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,326
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

    I'm not sure that May should be so worried about the "remain" media. There is plenty on the other side here, this is not a Trump-Media situation where every paper and news channel was almost universally hostile.
    However it is conceivable that the balance could shift more to how it was in the mid 90s where every negative story was ruthlessly pursued and sometimes blown out of proportion. It's very tough to defend against when you also have to govern.
    This is one of the big strength's of Trump's position, the media has almost zero influence. He didn't need them in the campaign, he doesn't need them now.
    Yes Trump has so far proven to be the absolute master of turning a hostile press against itself and his political opponents. So far he shows no sign of losing his touch.
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    Referendum play:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38167840

    I do wonder which side it might favour...
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    FF43 said:

    Can anyone explain why Boris Johnson is more popular than David Davis. Personally I think Mr Davis blinded by his ideology - other people's milages may vary. But I also think Mr Davis to be sincere and hard working. Mr Johnson doesn't have these saving graces - or indeed any that I can think of.

    You’re over thinking this, people like Boris because he cheers them up. - Davis, not so much.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SeanT said:

    All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

    e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

    All the lefties soberly agreed about this post-truth Nazi ideology poisoning the system.

    Only problem: Hispanics really DO have lower average IQs than whites or east Asians. It's a fact: a provable scientific, uncomfortable fact, but one that the Left has decided we must all ignore, in favour of their post-reality world, where what they wish to believe becomes the truth. Or post-truth.

    http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

    Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

    e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

    All the lefties soberly agreed about this post-truth Nazi ideology poisoning the system.

    Only problem: Hispanics really DO have lower average IQs than whites or east Asians. It's a fact: a provable scientific, uncomfortable fact, but one that the Left has decided we must all ignore, in favour of their post-reality world, where what they wish to believe becomes the truth. Or post-truth.

    http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

    Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia
    Rense's radio program and website promote views such as 9/11 conspiracy theories,[3] UFO reporting, paranormal phenomena, creation of diseases, chemtrails, evidence of advanced ancient technology, emergent energy technologies, and alternative medicine.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

    It has no choice but wait for the Supreme Court ruling in January. I agree the broadcast media are in full anti Brexit mode and that Boris has been found out, but fortunately not as PM.

    Zac looks like he may have committed political suicide but if he loses it will only increase the narrative that powerful forces are trying to stop the democratic will of the people.

    However, leaving the EU has gone too far to be stopped and I would expect TM to serve A50 at the earliest opportunity and to get on with negotiating our divorce with the EU even as it convulses throughout the union with the widespread rise of anti EU sentiment.
    Mrs May could have passed a one line A50 bill a couple of months ago, if she was bothered.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

    I'm not sure that May should be so worried about the "remain" media. There is plenty on the other side here, this is not a Trump-Media situation where every paper and news channel was almost universally hostile.
    However it is conceivable that the balance could shift more to how it was in the mid 90s where every negative story was ruthlessly pursued and sometimes blown out of proportion. It's very tough to defend against when you also have to govern.
    This is one of the big strength's of Trump's position, the media has almost zero influence. He didn't need them in the campaign, he doesn't need them now.
    Yes Trump has so far proven to be the absolute master of turning a hostile press against itself and his political opponents. So far he shows no sign of losing his touch.
    It's soap-opera politics.

    The script is probably this:

    " The media is the bad guy that is destroying america and Trump is fighting them to Make America Great Again ect ect. "

    It helps that public trust in the media is very low and very partisan, no one likes a journalist these days.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    PAW said:

    If the conservatives lose Richmond, might as well have two new runways.

    Yep.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Ugh. Jet lag.

    Was Sydney really as crap as you said on Twitter?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/804377572167426048

    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/804368028930478080

    Un-believable !!!

    Old numbers (From @Redistrict)

    Trump 2,954,783
    Clinton 2,890,409

    So Trump's margin drops 18k in a critical state due to the biggest city not being able to update their results till 22 days after the bloody election.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/804377572167426048

    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/804368028930478080

    Un-believable !!!

    Old numbers (From @Redistrict)

    Trump 2,954,783
    Clinton 2,890,409

    So Trump's margin drops 18k in a critical state due to the biggest city not being able to update their results till 22 days after the bloody election.

    There are still 1 million votes left in California to be counted, they will probably finish by the end of next week.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    perdix said:

    Tony Blair to launch new institute for centre-ground politics

    Former PM says the organisation will be a response to the growing global forces of right and leftwing populism

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/01/tony-blair-to-launch-new-institute-for-centre-ground-politics

    Will it be called "Institute for Sitting on the Fence"?

    It should be called the "Self Centre".
    The trend is for keyboard related names now - alt-right, ctrl-left, shift-centre
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    @Speedy California doesn't matter though, Philadelphia with the huge Democrat/GOP inbalance there... does !
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,871

    FF43 said:

    Can anyone explain why Boris Johnson is more popular than David Davis. Personally I think Mr Davis blinded by his ideology - other people's milages may vary. But I also think Mr Davis to be sincere and hard working. Mr Johnson doesn't have these saving graces - or indeed any that I can think of.

    You’re over thinking this, people like Boris because he cheers them up. - Davis, not so much.
    You must be right. I can forgive a lot from people who make me laugh, but Mr Johnson isn't one of them. He clearly charms certain people, but it's a charm that totally passes me by.
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    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

    It has no choice but wait for the Supreme Court ruling in January. I agree the broadcast media are in full anti Brexit mode and that Boris has been found out, but fortunately not as PM.

    Zac looks like he may have committed political suicide but if he loses it will only increase the narrative that powerful forces are trying to stop the democratic will of the people.

    However, leaving the EU has gone too far to be stopped and I would expect TM to serve A50 at the earliest opportunity and to get on with negotiating our divorce with the EU even as it convulses throughout the union with the widespread rise of anti EU sentiment.
    Mrs May could have passed a one line A50 bill a couple of months ago, if she was bothered.
    I really do think that she wants time to consider all the options and indeed may have deliberately gone to the Supreme Court to obtain clear insight on her options. I believe she is a long way ahead of any politician at present and I cannot think that many, even any, would want to swop places with her just now
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby losing huge amounts on Richmond would pretty much cap off a remarkable year...
    Won't be more than a few minutes before the LibDems to win drops below 3 on betfair
    Just about to tick to 3.0 (£2 left at 3.05) and a 35% chance
    Now 2.86
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597
    It seems to me that if you think the LibDems are going to win, you back them now and wait until a very nice profit drops into your account in about eight hours time and, if you don't, you still back them now and aim to cash out at a profit some time between 9pm and midnight.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Pulpstar said:

    Why does MSmithson refer to our PM as "TMay"?

    Teresa May :) ?
    I think Teresa May is in another line of work!
    She might also be a better PM though. Seems not too difficult.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    IanB2 said:

    It seems to me that if you think the LibDems are going to win, you back them now and wait until a very nice profit drops into your account in about eight hours time and, if you don't, you still back them now and aim to cash out at a profit some time between 9pm and midnight.

    But how do you know the Lib Dems will continue to shorten ?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I thought Boris Johnson got off to a good start as Foreign Secretary but suspected the media would be on his back 24/7 and so it appears. I have to say he is not helping himself giving impromptu interviews standing in a lift. I see he is on Marr and Peston on Sunday. They really need to pull him off and take the flak. He looks exhausted.

    The PM and Brexit Ministers need to get together urgently because they have completely lost the narrative (if they ever had it). The Remain-leaning media, are in full hunting pack mode and won't let go. I was prepared to wait for Article 50 to be triggered but now I don't know how much longer the government can hang on.

    I'm not sure that May should be so worried about the "remain" media. There is plenty on the other side here, this is not a Trump-Media situation where every paper and news channel was almost universally hostile.
    However it is conceivable that the balance could shift more to how it was in the mid 90s where every negative story was ruthlessly pursued and sometimes blown out of proportion. It's very tough to defend against when you also have to govern.
    This is one of the big strength's of Trump's position, the media has almost zero influence. He didn't need them in the campaign, he doesn't need them now.
    Yes Trump has so far proven to be the absolute master of turning a hostile press against itself and his political opponents. So far he shows no sign of losing his touch.
    It's soap-opera politics.

    The script is probably this:

    " The media is the bad guy that is destroying america and Trump is fighting them to Make America Great Again ect ect. "

    It helps that public trust in the media is very low and very partisan, no one likes a journalist these days.
    he needs a negative entity to contrast him, before the election it was Clinton now it will be the media, when he's in a tight spot it will be muslims or mexicans.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Zac will win by 10%.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,597
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    It seems to me that if you think the LibDems are going to win, you back them now and wait until a very nice profit drops into your account in about eight hours time and, if you don't, you still back them now and aim to cash out at a profit some time between 9pm and midnight.

    But how do you know the Lib Dems will continue to shorten ?
    This is a betting site - if any of us knew anything for certain, we wouldn't be here!

    Nevertheless they've been shortening all afternoon. Even if the trend doesn't continue, I can't see what could happen that would send it dramatically backwards, so the downside on the bet appears relatively limited.
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    Mr. T, worth noting that IQ is an entirely artificial measure, with the results constantly being reworked so the average stays at 100.

    That said, I can well believe there's reticence due to fears of being pointed at and declared unclean. [Same thing happens if you raise Baumeister's view of men having a small central spike in their normal curve (and raised extremities) with women having a larger central spike and lower extremities. Nobody complains if you say men are likelier to be violent, criminal, stupid or suffer learning difficulties than women. But suggest men are likelier than women to be geniuses or good at business, and people will contest it vigorously].
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,104
    PAW said:

    If the conservatives lose Richmond, might as well have two new runways.

    They should build two new runways anyway.
    Will lead to even fewer planes overflying Richmond!
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

    e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

    All the lefties soberly agreed about this post-truth Nazi ideology poisoning the system.

    Only problem: Hispanics really DO have lower average IQs than whites or east Asians. It's a fact: a provable scientific, uncomfortable fact, but one that the Left has decided we must all ignore, in favour of their post-reality world, where what they wish to believe becomes the truth. Or post-truth.

    http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

    Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia
    I had to use Rense as an admittedly iffy source because this stuff about race and IQ is so sensitive hardly anyone will run it, even though it is accepted science.

    Here's a scholarly article on the subject

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301303123_Genetic_and_Environmental_Determinants_of_IQ_in_Black_White_and_Hispanic_Americans_A_Meta-analysis_and_New_Analysis

    Now, you can argue that IQ tests are valueless or biased (though liberals are oddly keen to cite them when they want to save some poor dim soul from being executed in US jails), or you can argue that all these differences are environmental (though not many experts would agree: most accept that is some element of heritability)

    What you can't do is baldly say there are no differences in observed average IQ between races. Because there ARE.
    Maybe. I'll have to read more about it. But If we accept people of west african descent are good sprinters and east africans are good long distance runners because of their genetics I guess we have be open to some races being better at maths etc.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,689
    https://www.rt.com/uk/368901-drones-mod-military-cost/

    1 billion to be bunged to the yanks for drones. And I thought weapons and computer games were two things we actually DID make in this country.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,902
    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Can anyone explain why Boris Johnson is more popular than David Davis. Personally I think Mr Davis blinded by his ideology - other people's milages may vary. But I also think Mr Davis to be sincere and hard working. Mr Johnson doesn't have these saving graces - or indeed any that I can think of.

    You’re over thinking this, people like Boris because he cheers them up. - Davis, not so much.
    You must be right. I can forgive a lot from people who make me laugh, but Mr Johnson isn't one of them. He clearly charms certain people, but it's a charm that totally passes me by.
    Boris's charm passes you by because he was crucial in wining the Brexit referendum for LEAVE. He could be the funniest person on the planet and you would still fear and despise him.
    As a on-the-balance-of-the-choices-remainer, it has been interesting see how, since the Referendum, people in public life are being judged by each side as good/bad by their perceived position on it.

    The most truly fascinating cases are those where people announce "I hate so-and-so" and then describe a dozen evil habits that he/she may or may not have. That the true cause is Brexit is not mentioned - sort of like not mentioning the Homomda Ambassador in the room...
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,902
    nunu said:

    The allegation about hug a Hitler's team on 9/11 is quite stunning even by what we already know about red ken.

    Red Ken needs to log off Facebook every now and again.
    The bit where Ken suggests that the guy who stated that this was sacked for not coming into work is quite funny in a way. Given that he kept Bob Kiley on for years, when his main skill was getting tired and emotional in concert with Ken.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    SeanT said:

    In reality, they'll have driven themselves up a cul-de-sac and provided the Tories with lots of quotes for use in the South West.

    If Brexit were on track and the Cabinet had a coherent and united position you might be correct. A flustered Boris Johnson shouting 'take back control' from a lift suggests the Lib Dems are playing it right and it will be downhill for the Tories from now on.
    lol.

    The Tories are SIXTEEN POINTS AHEAD in the polls, and the Lib Dems are on a mighty 7%.
    The Tories were 16 points ahead in ONE poll but cannot replicate that or anywhere near it in any real election
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    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    matt said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm rereading Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. What a fabulous book.

    Like a lot of Adams' work, it's very good up to roughly half way through then fades badly. I understand that the publishers had to apply a great deal of pressure to get him to complete books so perhaps there may be a direct relationship between the two.
    I first heard it serialised on Radio 4 when I was a lad. It was the only time that I've ever spent the week waiting in anticipation for the next episode of a radio show. I thought the TV series wasn't badly done either, but didn't have quite the same magic. I read and enjoyed the book afterwards, but I agree that the whole joke started to wear a bit thin in subsequent books.
    Yes but even now some people do not know the answer.
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    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    It may be that the distribution of IQ scores for one race is positioned to the left of another and that the mean IQ is therefore lower... to prejudge on that basis that an individual from the former must be less intelligent than one from the latter is still racist.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,244

    Pulpstar said:

    Who is this 'the lobby', and how does Tom Peck know what they're putting on Olney ?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/804343710720917504

    The lobby losing huge amounts on Richmond would pretty much cap off a remarkable year...
    Just questioned Peck about the basis for this and his one-word answer was 'Brexit'. Not being near to the action, this seems pretty flimsy to me but I guess we'll see. Either way, it strikes me that the Lib Dems have been distracted like a cat with a reflected light. They'll believe that their election machine is up and running again on the basis of a highly unusual constituency and a fairly unusual election. In reality, they'll have driven themselves up a cul-de-sac and provided the Tories with lots of quotes for use in the South West.
    Nice getting your excuses in early Mr Herdson. If the LDs do win this it will recement their status as de facto opposition in a certain type of seat across the South. Bath, Cheltenham, Lewes, Oxford W will all be seen as low hanging fruit.


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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    Latest PA figures mean big picture really now is amazing.

    Trump has won MI by 0.2%, WI by 0.7% and PA by 0.7%.

    Clinton didn't spend any money at all in MI or WI. And she concentrated far more on FL, OH and NC than she did on PA.

    Yet she could in fact have written-off FL, OH and NC - all she needed was MI, WI and PA.

    In theory it means Trump is in a very vulnerable position in 2020 - if the Dems campaign in the right areas and even more so if he doesn't deliver on Rustbelt promises. But of course much else can change by then.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,326

    Tighter than expected in Richmond Park. Huge number of LibDem activists compared to Tories. LDs briefing out that they're going to win...

    Still three hours of voting...
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    For fans of Scotland and tipping point

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/804396191395917824
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,104
    LibDem expections management going well as usual. This is going to be the epic fail of all epic fails if they don't win the seat!
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited December 2016
    I imagine that a great many MPs will be worried if a Brexit based vote leads to a change of MP in Richmond.

    Most MPs are on the wrong side of their constituents on this issue and won't welcome it becoming the decisive factor.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    chestnut said:

    I imagine that a great many MPs will be worried if a Brexit based vote leads to a change of MP in Richmond.

    Most MPs are on the wrong side of their constituents on this issue and won't welcome it becoming the decisive factor.

    Most MPs aren't wasting huge sums of taxpayer's money by fulfilling stupid promises.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nunu said:

    Zac will win by 10%.

    You can get a 57% return on Betfair if you're sure Goldsmith will do it:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.127880569
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.


    http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

    Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia
    I had to use Rense as an admittedly iffy source because this stuff about race and IQ is so sensitive hardly anyone will run it, even though it is accepted science.



    What you can't do is baldly say there are no differences in observed average IQ between races. Because there ARE.
    Maybe. I'll have to read more about it. But If we accept people of west african descent are good sprinters and east africans are good long distance runners because of their genetics I guess we have be open to some races being better at maths etc.
    Quite.

    But my point wasn't really racial, it was more an observation that the Left lives in its own post-truth world, a Trumpery of liberalism, and has done so for many years. This is just one example, an uncomfortable scientific fact which the Left has successfully rendered invisible, by making the mere discussion of it a swift route to career suicide.

    So we reach the point when no one knows these uncomfortable facts, and when they are occasionally discussed everyone reacts with bewildered horror, and refuses to believe that they can possibly be true. Even though they are true.
    There's been a big backlash to the social justice warrior class by the young, just look at youtube and the plethora of youtubers making thousands of rant videos against third wave feminism and safe spaces. They are willing to debate any topic without censure and with millions of views. Many of them are young gay/black/transgender young people saying look the left is becoming regressive when they shut down debate of important topics.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,244
    Why would the Tories be gloomy, they weren't standing. :innocent:
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    I'm getting texts from Tories who are getting out the vote for Zac. It seems organised by a central body, but that would surprise me! I've asked lots of questions but the only answer...it's effing freezing, the oldies will not be voting if they haven't already. Turnout won't reach 50% then, and as someone said on here this morning, every election, media claim higher than expected turnout and it usually isn't.
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    Why would the Tories be gloomy, they weren't standing. :innocent:
    The Tories are gloomy because this means the Tory majority goes down to single digits.

    With Mrs May's awful people skills, she cannot afford to lose an MP who would vote with her on most matters.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2016
    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    All this guff about the alt-right and their fake news, the Left has been living in a fake WORLD, with fake REALITY, for the last five decades - and forcing the rest of us to endure it, too.

    e.g. A coupla weeks ago I heard James O'Brien and some other lefties on LBC denouncing Trump for appointing the Breitbart guy, saying "he is an out and out fascist and racist, printing ridiculous and offensive articles about Hispanics having lower IQs, how can a man who publishes lies like that be allowed anywhere near the White House" etc etc

    All the lefties soberly agreed about this post-truth Nazi ideology poisoning the system.

    Only problem: Hispanics really DO have lower average IQs than whites or east Asians. It's a fact: a provable scientific, uncomfortable fact, but one that the Left has decided we must all ignore, in favour of their post-reality world, where what they wish to believe becomes the truth. Or post-truth.

    http://www.rense.com/general79/dut.htm

    Jeffry Shearer Rense is an American radio talk-show host. His show, the Jeff Rense Program, publishes various conspiracy theories, and was formerly broadcast via satellite radio, which remains archived online. Wikipedia
    It's almost like low IQ is linked to education, malnutrition and poverty rather than race.
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Ugh. Jet lag.

    Was Sydney really as crap as you said on Twitter?
    No. I overreacted to one crap day.

    That said, it was my fifth or sixth visit to the city and I do now see its flaws (and Australia's flaws) much more clearly.

    The suburbs are indescribably hideous. The ugliest architecture I've seen in any first world country. Conversations can be notably banal. The flies are fucking annoying. Everything is expensive. Service is generally slow and sometimes terrible. Sydney itself is beautiful around the harbour but evermore hideous the further you go inland. It is also a relentlessly self conscious city, nervous yet showy, anxious yet full of poseurs.

    Yet I still love it. And love going there. The food helps.

    Having a daughter there means I've come to regard Oz as my second home - my other country.
    I agree 100%. In everything you say, I even had a daughter there too.
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    @steve_hawkes: Lib Dems are changing up in Richmond - offering to drive commuters to polling booths - "next two hours are vital"
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SeanT said:

    Rexel56 said:

    It may be that the distribution of IQ scores for one race is positioned to the left of another and that the mean IQ is therefore lower... to prejudge on that basis that an individual from the former must be less intelligent than one from the latter is still racist.

    Which is why no one on this site has made the latter assertion.
    Strawmen everywhere.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    Mr. T, worth noting that IQ is an entirely artificial measure, with the results constantly being reworked so the average stays at 100.

    That said, I can well believe there's reticence due to fears of being pointed at and declared unclean. [Same thing happens if you raise Baumeister's view of men having a small central spike in their normal curve (and raised extremities) with women having a larger central spike and lower extremities. Nobody complains if you say men are likelier to be violent, criminal, stupid or suffer learning difficulties than women. But suggest men are likelier than women to be geniuses or good at business, and people will contest it vigorously].

    Another example of liberal left post-truthiness is female sexuality.

    It is a clear and obvious fact that a lot of women are turned on by the idea of a handsome dominant alpha male who won't take no for an answer: i.e. women have rape fantasies.

    Similarly, a lot of women find the idea of sexual submission very erotic, they dream of being tied up, spanked, caned, and so on. Hence the ONE HUNDRED MILLION copies of Fifty Shades of Grey sold around the world. 100,000,000.

    Yet, until very recently, this aspect of female sexuality has been unmentionable in polite Guardian-reading circles. It simply doesn't exist. Or if it does it's because, patriarchy, blah blah.

    This is your fantasy (the non mentioning of it). It's mentioned and acknowledged all the time. The point being is it is a sexual fantasy.

    Where people ' draw the line' is when fuck wits use it as a defence of rapists and sexual abusers.
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    Either the Lib Dems are going to pull off an awesome by election victory in Richmond Park, or their expectations management skills are shite
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Richmond Park is about as friendly as it gets for the LDs in a by-election situation. If they can't win there, they don't have much of a chance anywhere else.
This discussion has been closed.