politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Now two years old and heading

With this latest PB/Polling Matters podcast the development, pioneered by pollster Keiran Pedley, is two years old during which time there have been more than 900k downloads with the million mark not that far off.
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So glad I introduced Mike to Keiran
Imagine you do a job where you do $1,000 worth of work for your employer, but he pays you $2,000. You're the winner. We give them less than they give us.
Or are you seriously suggesting it's better to give someone more than they give you???
Sorry TSE , I was not being awkward but simply had no links immediately to refer you to. I certainly knew that I had not invented or dreamt this!
I note too that you have alluded to Tory support in Scotland impacting on headline national polling figures. I have myself pointed this out a few times - and even been accused of 'spin' for having done so.
Next week's podcast should be rather good as well, as there'll be the Italian referendum and Austrian presidential election.
The most recent Austrian poll referenced at Wikipedia was published on 17 Nov. Have there been any since or are they banned in the last fortnight?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NymRecFWgAs
Am I missing something ?
The polling I saw (around the same time as you) gave Hofer a small lead.
If the other man wins, questions about legitimacy may rise again given previous irregularities.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Austrian_presidential_election,_2016
For those that don't know, it is a video capture / sharing app, where the hook is you can't see the video you have captured before you share it....all you see is a blank screen. And those following others again can't see what they are about to watch and can only view it once before it disappears.
So in other words, lets take video capture / sharing apps and make a version of one of these apps which lacks all the useful functionality and sell that as the hook.
This is an example:
“Last month, the EU quietly increased eight tariffs on imported oranges from third party countries from 3.2% to 16.0%”
Why? Because Spain got the EU to “safeguard” and protect their orange producers. This costs UK consumers. There is a myriad such tariffs we would be well shot of.
http://brexitcentral.com/dan-lewis-new-16-import-tariffs-oranges-show-must-leave-customs-union/
But 1.4 is too short.
I would wager that the margin of victory will be bigger than the polls imply.
Bellen ?
If so, then a tie in the polls now may be equally misleading, but in which direction?
Is there a GuideDog option?
And CNN have bought it with the idea to turn this into some youth focused medium...and I thought Vine was bloody stupid!
What I mean is, the polls are much too static.
I'll get my coat.
I've no interest in paying for their propaganda masquerading as news.
How much have CNN paid for BEME (I've never heard of it !)
Also, aside from the streaming computer games, the technology they have is fabulous...being able to stream 100s of channels in HD at upto 1080p / 60fps, with some channels having 100,000's of concurrent viewers.
Scaling that kind of tech is not trivial.
"It is unclear what shape the Beme project will take, but the plan is for Mr. Neistat to present some of its early ideas in the first half of 2017."
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/28/technology/cnn-brings-in-the-social-app-beme-to-cultivate-a-millennial-audience.html?_r=0
Their crimes seemed to be single issue thread stuff - not repeated violations.
They have also streamed big music festivals, like Ultra and even the US presidential election debates. I think Amazon have big plans for the platform.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/mps-sexually-assaulting-young-researchers-have-nowhere-turn/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
The recent ability to tie up between ones Amazon Prime account and Twitch Prime is massive for the platform and also shows that Amazon are clearly see a big future in Twitch.
The tie up, effectively gave everybody who has Amazon Prime both an ongoing Twitch prime membership and also a free channel sub a month to spend. I did see one of the big twitch streamer estimate how much that tie had cost Amazon a year, I can't remember the exact number, but the simple answer was a lot.
Scott Adams
Have you noticed that his "dumbness" made him president? At what point do you wonder if any of it was skill? https://t.co/06bZmAdblb
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 14m14 minutes ago
Could anyone who is a Corbyn supporter explain why - given Labour is now supposedly "united" - the Tory poll lead continues to widen.
Mr. Max, understandable advice. [As an aside, it's counter-intuitive but the story a couple of years ago indicated most victims were male].
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38147472
It's probably just that, though conspiracy theorists might wonder if it's indicative of his grumpiness.
Last time I checked they (The PLP) were backing Owen Smith !
Global temperatures have fallen – so why isn’t it being reported?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/global-temperatures-fallen-isnt-reported/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Lunchtime_Espresso_29112016
Could it be because the Leftie Liberati cannot bear to eat their own words?
Joe Posobiec
Trump does it again! The last time Congress proposed a Flag Protection Act it was written by....Senator Hillary Clinton!
#4DChess https://t.co/TFRlIpBLRU
Call me old fashioned, but there is not his truth vs her truth, but an objective truth out there. Post-truth politics seems to be the bastard son of Post-Modernism gone out to a wider public.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6YGbunDHLs
And that is a real problem. Corbynistas have no reason to believe the polls which were wrong about every ballot within recent memory, and after Brown and Miliband were beaten, no reason to believe a more mainstream leader would be elected. So how are you going to convince them?
124083. PB.com
politicalbetting
It'll be fine, let them ignore the signs for as long as it takes.
The Miliband changes meant the role of MPs had changed to being gatekeepers, from having substantial voting weight. Their task was to only permit credible leaders who found they acceptable onto the shortlist. They failed to understand their own rules, backed a man they didn't want then found out they'd made a terrible mistake.