politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Based on the success of other MPs who resigned to fight by-ele

Interestingly that English example is the government gaining a seat from an opposition MPs by election. How much further back would we need to.look to find the opposition gaining a government MPs seat?

Looks like a Lib Dem leaflet except for the colour.

Unlike the French election I'm all green on this for a small profit.

I'll win a ton more on Zac mind and see no reason to change that (+30/+130 odd)

I agree with Zac on Brexit, on Heathrow and on what many PBers would consider to be "green crap". I always thought he was a Tory in name only, and think that he will feel a lot more at home sat next to Caroline Lucas on the opposition green benches.

theakes said:

Looks like a Lib Dem leaflet except for the colour.

The absence of a bar chart with the words "Only the Lib Dems can win from here!" proves you definitively wrong

The latest ICM is out:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/nov/29/tories-have-16-pt-lead-over-labour-and-highest-vote-share-for-7-years-poll-suggests-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

16 point lead for the blue team.

MaxPB said:

SandyRentool said:

I agree with Zac on Brexit, on Heathrow and on what many PBers would consider to be "green crap". I always thought he was a Tory in name only, and think that he will feel a lot more at home sat next to Caroline Lucas on the opposition green benches.

As if Lucas would let Zac into the party. He's not a crypto commie like the rest of the party.

I'll just let my other half know that she is a crypto commie. Maybe I should leave it until after I've asked for a cup of coffee.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting he joins the Green Party. I was just trying to be clever saying green benches, but not Green benches.

AlastairMeeks said:

The latest ICM is out:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/nov/29/tories-have-16-pt-lead-over-labour-and-highest-vote-share-for-7-years-poll-suggests-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

16 point lead for the blue team.

And yet I have Corbynites seriously telling me they think that Jezza will become Prime Minister.

AlastairMeeks said:

The latest ICM is out:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/nov/29/tories-have-16-pt-lead-over-labour-and-highest-vote-share-for-7-years-poll-suggests-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

16 point lead for the blue team.

Labour is utterly f**ked, and thats bad for everyone.

'The tables, which ICM will publish later today (I will post a link as soon as they’re online) show the Tories ahead of Labour amongst every social grade, even DEs (where the Tories are on 33% and Labour 32%). The Tories are also ahead amongst all age groups, apart from 18 to 24-year-olds.'

SandyRentool said:

I agree with Zac on Brexit, on Heathrow and on what many PBers would consider to be "green crap". I always thought he was a Tory in name only, and think that he will feel a lot more at home sat next to Caroline Lucas on the opposition green benches.

But Caroline Lucas is campaigning against Zac, for the LibDems.

ICM

Conservatives: 44% (up 2 points from ICM earlier this month)

Labour: 28% (no change)

Ukip: 12% (up 1)

Lib Dems: 7% (down 2)

Greens: 4% (up 1)

Conservative lead: 16 points (up 2)

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thirst.

Who on here actually wants Zac to win? I'm not sure I do.

I do. Only because I don't want an extra quisling Lib Dem in the house.

Hmmm. The problem is that Zac might be worse than a quisling Lib Dem. The decision on large infrastructure projects that affect the entire country should not be determined by one MP throwing a strop in this manner.

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thirst.

Who on here actually wants Zac to win? I'm not sure I do.

I do. Only because I don't want an extra quisling Lib Dem in the house.

Hmmm. The problem is that Zac might be worse than a quisling Lib Dem. The decision on large infrastructure projects that affect the entire country should not be determined by one MP throwing a strop in this manner.

Yes, but whether he wins or loses Heathrow is going ahead. In tge mean time the Lib Dems are trying to overturn the leave vote by whatever means necessary, the electoral commission should force them to change their name.

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The latest ICM is out:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/nov/29/tories-have-16-pt-lead-over-labour-and-highest-vote-share-for-7-years-poll-suggests-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

16 point lead for the blue team.

Clear yellow water opening up between the Lib Dems and UKIP. Hopefully the by election will reverse that.

Surely clear purple water

Yes at first I misread the table and though the Lib Dems were ahead.

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thirst.

Who on here actually wants Zac to win? I'm not sure I do.

I do. Only because I don't want an extra quisling Lib Dem in the house.

Hmmm. The problem is that Zac might be worse than a quisling Lib Dem. The decision on large infrastructure projects that affect the entire country should not be determined by one MP throwing a strop in this manner.

Why should Zac affect the Heathrow decision. He is but one independent MP in a house of 650 !

TheScreamingEagles said:

From the Guardian, quoting Martin Boon of ICM

Boon also says the figures for Labour are bleak. The tables, which ICM will publish later today (I will post a link as soon as they’re online) show the Tories ahead of Labour amongst every social grade, even DEs (where the Tories are on 33% and Labour 32%). The Tories are also ahead amongst all age groups, apart from 18 to 24-year-olds.

What are Labour going to do? The PLP/backbenchers are invisble, and they can't try another attempt against Corbyn.

I expect the Corbynites will actually welcome a GE loss as it allows them to fully reshape their party and purge the last of New Labour.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From the Guardian, quoting Martin Boon of ICM

Boon also says the figures for Labour are bleak. The tables, which ICM will publish later today (I will post a link as soon as they’re online) show the Tories ahead of Labour amongst every social grade, even DEs (where the Tories are on 33% and Labour 32%). The Tories are also ahead amongst all age groups, apart from 18 to 24-year-olds.

Horrible figures for Labour. With Nuttall they might start to eat into Labour's remaining C2DE share as well. Could see them drop to ~24 points if Nuttall does a good job for the next few months.

What we need is some constituency polling in the Labour held marginals.

Based on Ashcroft's infamous first question only. If Nuttall settles in well and keeps Nigel and Banks on side I think UKIP will be very dangerous. Could actually beat Labour in a lot of seats where they were second and create loafs of three wat races.

You still can't get away from Zac's colossal misjudgement; his second point in his leaflet makes no sense whatsoever.

If he was standing against pro-LHR3 candidates, and was returned with a massively increased majority, it might at least have been a demonstration of voters' rejection of the third runway. But that isn't going to happen, and Zac knew from the beginning that his principal opponent would come from a party with a longer track record of opposing the expansion than his has. He also knew, given the nature the seat, that most likely all his principal opponents would share the same view.

It's a well educated and aware constituency, and people will have realised that Zac just scraping home against another anti-LHR3 candidate will make no difference to what happens to the runway. And so re-electing Zac sends no message at all, whereas the LibDem candidate at least offers a chance to send a message on Brexit.

I agree with Mike that there will be a loyalty factor in favour of an MP who has taken a principled if dumb stand. But it could be close, nevertheless.

I think what we're observing is that the left has lost its way. They used to be about supporting the needs and aspirations of the downtrodden and the working man. Now they are out campaigning for transgender bathrooms and Fidel adulation, identity politics and race baiting. Those nasty smelly plebs can go hang. Labour in this country and the Democrats in the USA have spent the last decade or more telling middle England/middle America that they hate them. They heard.

Pulpstar said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thirst.

Who on here actually wants Zac to win? I'm not sure I do.

I do. Only because I don't want an extra quisling Lib Dem in the house.

Hmmm. The problem is that Zac might be worse than a quisling Lib Dem. The decision on large infrastructure projects that affect the entire country should not be determined by one MP throwing a strop in this manner.

Why should Zac affect the Heathrow decision. He is but one independent MP in a house of 650 !

Well, he shouldn't. But it appears he has, nonetheless. Let's hope May's stronger than Cameron in this regard.

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The latest ICM is out:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/nov/29/tories-have-16-pt-lead-over-labour-and-highest-vote-share-for-7-years-poll-suggests-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

16 point lead for the blue team.

Has Theresa May resigned yet?

She's obviously useless - we keep being told so.......

The joys of FPTP and Duverger's Law:
You don't have to be any good to win. Just sufficiently marginally better than the one real alternative.
No wonder the Big Two love FPTP so much. True competition, disciplined pluralism, free market philosophies are for other people.

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thirst.

Who on here actually wants Zac to win? I'm not sure I do.

I do. Only because I don't want an extra quisling Lib Dem in the house.

Hmmm. The problem is that Zac might be worse than a quisling Lib Dem. The decision on large infrastructure projects that affect the entire country should not be determined by one MP throwing a strop in this manner.

Yes, but whether he wins or loses Heathrow is going ahead. In tge mean time the Lib Dems are trying to overturn the leave vote by whatever means necessary, the electoral commission should force them to change their name.

How dare there be any dissension!
We must airbrush them out of all photos for the sake of the people!

There was a democratic vote to leave the EU, the Lib Dems are trying to overturn that vote either in the courts or in the Lords. Explain how that is in any way something a party that purports to be either Liberal or Democratic would do?

JosiasJessop said:

Pulpstar said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thirst.

Who on here actually wants Zac to win? I'm not sure I do.

I do. Only because I don't want an extra quisling Lib Dem in the house.

Hmmm. The problem is that Zac might be worse than a quisling Lib Dem. The decision on large infrastructure projects that affect the entire country should not be determined by one MP throwing a strop in this manner.

Why should Zac affect the Heathrow decision. He is but one independent MP in a house of 650 !

Well, he shouldn't. But it appears he has, nonetheless. Let's hope May's stronger than Cameron in this regard.

Well she already has been in a sense by giving it a soft launch and triggering the by-election despite having a tiny majority.

Patrick said:

I think what we're observing is that the left has lost its way. They used to be about supporting the needs and aspirations of the downtrodden and the working man. Now they are out campaigning for transgender bathrooms and Fidel adulation, identity politics and race baiting. Those nasty smelly plebs can go hang. Labour in this country and the Democrats in the USA have spent the last decade or more telling middle England/middle America that they hate them. They heard.

Whereas the Tories spanked them on the arse, repeatedly, but they came back for more. Not sure what that says really.

Monksfield said:

Patrick said:

I think what we're observing is that the left has lost its way. They used to be about supporting the needs and aspirations of the downtrodden and the working man. Now they are out campaigning for transgender bathrooms and Fidel adulation, identity politics and race baiting. Those nasty smelly plebs can go hang. Labour in this country and the Democrats in the USA have spent the last decade or more telling middle England/middle America that they hate them. They heard.

Whereas the Tories spanked them on the arse, repeatedly, but they came back for more. Not sure what that says really.

Because the Tories didn't also pull up the ladder like Labour did. Cutting benefits is painful for the poor but it creates a society which is more willing to work. Look at Switzerland which has incredibly tough benefit rules, unemployment is about 3% and the claimant rate equivalent is under 1%.

Monksfield said:

Patrick said:

I think what we're observing is that the left has lost its way. They used to be about supporting the needs and aspirations of the downtrodden and the working man. Now they are out campaigning for transgender bathrooms and Fidel adulation, identity politics and race baiting. Those nasty smelly plebs can go hang. Labour in this country and the Democrats in the USA have spent the last decade or more telling middle England/middle America that they hate them. They heard.

Whereas the Tories spanked them on the arse, repeatedly, but they came back for more. Not sure what that says really.

I suspect Osborne's 'austerity' combined with his and Dave's metrosexuality kept the Tory vote down. May seems altogether more open to listening. Dare one say a bit more populist / common sense. And Hammond seems to be softening the austerity line. Of course the Tory vote is creeping up.

MaxPB said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thirst.

Who on here actually wants Zac to win? I'm not sure I do.

I do. Only because I don't want an extra quisling Lib Dem in the house.

Hmmm. The problem is that Zac might be worse than a quisling Lib Dem. The decision on large infrastructure projects that affect the entire country should not be determined by one MP throwing a strop in this manner.

Yes, but whether he wins or loses Heathrow is going ahead. In tge mean time the Lib Dems are trying to overturn the leave vote by whatever means necessary, the electoral commission should force them to change their name.

How dare there be any dissension!
We must airbrush them out of all photos for the sake of the people!

There was a democratic vote to leave the EU, the Lib Dems are trying to overturn that vote either in the courts or in the Lords. Explain how that is in any way something a party that purports to be either Liberal or Democratic would do?

They're not.
The hysterical Leave media try to portray the A50 issue as "trying to stop Brexit", a spin line that's been thoroughly debunked and only now believed by the easily led and gullible.
So nothing to explain.

The Lib Dem stance is that we've voted on what we want to leave hut not where we want to go and we need another referendum for that - one in which one side can't pretend to be all things to all people but where the explicit exit deal is presented for endorsement or rejection. And for the possibility of rejection to be meaningful, at least one of the alternative options has to allow for return to the previous status quo.

Why is that anti-democratic? Other than entertaining a possibility you don't like?

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/davidclewis/status/803513210112512000

Surely only a matter of time before Billy Bragg goes UKIP.

Hahaha - love the fact that the interviewer was clearly inviting an anti-Trumpite luvvie rant, and instead received a ringing May endorsement.

TheScreamingEagles said:

From the Guardian, quoting Martin Boon of ICM

Boon also says the figures for Labour are bleak. The tables, which ICM will publish later today (I will post a link as soon as they’re online) show the Tories ahead of Labour amongst every social grade, even DEs (where the Tories are on 33% and Labour 32%). The Tories are also ahead amongst all age groups, apart from 18 to 24-year-olds.

Tables: https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016_nov2_guardian_poll.pdf

wasd said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From the Guardian, quoting Martin Boon of ICM

Boon also says the figures for Labour are bleak. The tables, which ICM will publish later today (I will post a link as soon as they’re online) show the Tories ahead of Labour amongst every social grade, even DEs (where the Tories are on 33% and Labour 32%). The Tories are also ahead amongst all age groups, apart from 18 to 24-year-olds.

Tables: https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016_nov2_guardian_poll.pdf

Cheers.

Scottish sub-sample klaxon

SNP 41% Con 30% Lab 19% Lib Dem 5% UKIP 3% Greens 2%

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: only BBC gossip (Daily Mail) but rumours of Hamilton having his contract ended are about.

There's 17 on that at Ladbrokes. Given Hamilton appears to have quit (then been persuaded to stay) after Spain this year... that may be value. If I put anything on it'll only be change, mind.

He won't quit the winning team, and Mercedes would be mad if they did anything serious about his tactics in the last race. Any racer in the same position would have done exactly the same with the title on the line.

Monksfield said:

SandyRentool said:

I agree with Zac on Brexit, on Heathrow and on what many PBers would consider to be "green crap". I always thought he was a Tory in name only, and think that he will feel a lot more at home sat next to Caroline Lucas on the opposition green benches.

SandyRentool said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The latest ICM is out:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/nov/29/tories-have-16-pt-lead-over-labour-and-highest-vote-share-for-7-years-poll-suggests-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

16 point lead for the blue team.

And yet I have Corbynites seriously telling me they think that Jezza will become Prime Minister.

I'm interested Sandy, who do you want to see lead the Labour party? Jarvis?

I wouldn't have a problem with someone like Clive Lewis. I am a fan of radical lefty policies (hence my avatar), but we need a front man or front woman who the voters can see as their next PM.

We need the CLP to come to a deal, whereby Corbyn's chosen one is guaranteed a place in the leadership ballot in return for him quitting. I hoped this would happen back in the summer, but alas not.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Max, what do you mean by Hamilton building up the team of mechanics/engineers? Did he not just inherit Schumacher's?

IIRC part of the deal with Hamilton was that he'd be able to recruit his own mechanics from McLaren when he came over. In year one he had the Schumacher team, then in year two when the McLaren mechanics became available after finishing any gardening leave Mercedes recruited a whole bunch of them, he also brought in a few people from other teams as well. When people say that Hamilton is a raw racer vs Rosberg's "thinking man" they are completely wrong. After winning two titles with his mechanics Rosberg bitched to management and Lewis gave away his contractual right for picking his own mechanics in the new contract, Mercedes management switched the two teams. Lewis' carefully recruited team went to Rosberg even though most of them didn't want to go.

wasd said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From the Guardian, quoting Martin Boon of ICM

Boon also says the figures for Labour are bleak. The tables, which ICM will publish later today (I will post a link as soon as they’re online) show the Tories ahead of Labour amongst every social grade, even DEs (where the Tories are on 33% and Labour 32%). The Tories are also ahead amongst all age groups, apart from 18 to 24-year-olds.

Tables: https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016_nov2_guardian_poll.pdf

Taps Mic.....Sniff Sniff...WRONG, 21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation...

.. I am a fan of radical lefty policies (hence my avatar), but we need a front man or front woman who the voters can see as their next PM...

You're clearly not a fan of logic or common sense then Sandy. Is it not obvious yet that radical leftyism and being a credible PM are mutually incompatible? When Corbyn's Labour get creamed at the next GE will you advocate someone even more insanely lefty to lead? The Tories would love that.

MarqueeMark said:

PlatoSaid said:

Harry Cole
Spot on from @thequentinletts: "If Paul Nuttall were Labour leader, the Tories might have a problem."

When does the transfer window open?

LOL.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/davidclewis/status/803513210112512000

Surely only a matter of time before Billy Bragg goes UKIP.

Hahaha - love the fact that the interviewer was clearly inviting an anti-Trumpite luvvie rant, and instead received a ringing May endorsement.

Kate Bush is great. Look how she dealt with the invite to go on a climate change luvvie rant:

Q: Stephen Hawking recently said the Earth only has 1,000 years left. As someone who has written about environmental issues, does that alarm you?

A: Well, nobody really knows, do they? They told Stephen Hawking he only had a year left to live and how many years ago was that? You can’t know it all. If ever there’s been somebody to hold as an icon of sheer determination and willpower, it’s that guy, let alone any of the things he’s done scientifically.

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

SandyRentool said:

MaxPB said:

SandyRentool said:

I agree with Zac on Brexit, on Heathrow and on what many PBers would consider to be "green crap". I always thought he was a Tory in name only, and think that he will feel a lot more at home sat next to Caroline Lucas on the opposition green benches.

As if Lucas would let Zac into the party. He's not a crypto commie like the rest of the party.

I'll just let my other half know that she is a crypto commie. Maybe I should leave it until after I've asked for a cup of coffee.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting he joins the Green Party. I was just trying to be clever saying green benches, but not Green benches.

That would be the most remarkable outcome, given that Lucas has been out door-knocking for the LibDems in the by-election, surely providing a future quiz question as to the only time any party leader has actively campaigned in an election for a candidate from another party.

And utterly bonkers. Zac is a green conservative. Lucas should be encouraging people like him who agree on climate change, airports etc etc. Far more likely to work with her as an indie than a new LibDem who would be just as tribal as the rest of LibDems imho.

Lucas is nothing more than a watermelon. The Green party is just a tool she wants to use to push a radical leftist agenda.

Pulpstar said:

U-turns in the making #24561

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38138815

"The government is to outline moves later to make companies justify high levels of executive pay."

Even Uncle Vince realised this was total bollocks and dropped it a few years ago.

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

SandyRentool said:

MaxPB said:

SandyRentool said:

I agree with Zac on Brexit, on Heathrow and on what many PBers would consider to be "green crap". I always thought he was a Tory in name only, and think that he will feel a lot more at home sat next to Caroline Lucas on the opposition green benches.

As if Lucas would let Zac into the party. He's not a crypto commie like the rest of the party.

I'll just let my other half know that she is a crypto commie. Maybe I should leave it until after I've asked for a cup of coffee.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting he joins the Green Party. I was just trying to be clever saying green benches, but not Green benches.

That would be the most remarkable outcome, given that Lucas has been out door-knocking for the LibDems in the by-election, surely providing a future quiz question as to the only time any party leader has actively campaigned in an election for a candidate from another party.

And utterly bonkers. Zac is a green conservative. Lucas should be encouraging people like him who agree on climate change, airports etc etc. Far more likely to work with her as an indie than a new LibDem who would be just as tribal as the rest of LibDems imho.

Lucas is nothing more than a watermelon. The Green party is just a tool she wants to use to push a radical leftist agenda.

Talking of Greens, PBers might be interested to know current Green MEP Molly Scott Cato has been selected to fight key seat of Bristol West at next GE. 9% behind Labour iirc.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, perhaps. I think any departure is more likely to be Hamilton's choice. Maybe 10-15% chance of it happening.

If the Spain rumour, which appears well-sourced, is true, then he's a bit more volatile than expected and the team may be getting pissed off with him (which may explain the perhaps unexpected radio calls during the last race).

He didn't leave McLaren over pace, but reliability, after all.

Mr. Eagles, so mostly inherited and a few came over with him. Toys and prams spring to mind. Failures in 2014 were about equal, likewise 2015.

Yes he's got a big ego, but he's the best driver out there right now and isn't going to quit the winning team in the closed season, with all the big drives elsewhere already locked up for next year.

The only place he could possibly want would be Kimi's seat in the red car, wih a serious plan to get back to winning ways - but that seems a long way off at the currently disorganised Maranello outfit, with senior people leaving rather than joining since James Allison left earlier this year.

I think Toto and Niki Lauda will over time realise that Lewis did nothing wrong, after all Niki was the guy who got back in the car with his face still burning because he was so desperate to win the title. 60,000 of us who were watching it live, and millions more watching it on TV, got the grandstand finish to the championship that the sport deserved. My brother and his girlfriend attended their first race on Sunday, and are already planning on going next year - that's two more happy F1 customers, who'd have probably left with a different impression if Lewis had just driven off into the distance.

IanB2 said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thirst.

Who on here actually wants Zac to win? I'm not sure I do.

I do. Only because I don't want an extra quisling Lib Dem in the house.

Hmmm. The problem is that Zac might be worse than a quisling Lib Dem. The decision on large infrastructure projects that affect the entire country should not be determined by one MP throwing a strop in this manner.

Yes, but whether he wins or loses Heathrow is going ahead. In tge mean time the Lib Dems are trying to overturn the leave vote by whatever means necessary, the electoral commission should force them to change their name.

How dare there be any dissension!
We must airbrush them out of all photos for the sake of the people!

There was a democratic vote to leave the EU, the Lib Dems are trying to overturn that vote either in the courts or in the Lords. Explain how that is in any way something a party that purports to be either Liberal or Democratic would do?

They're not.
The hysterical Leave media try to portray the A50 issue as "trying to stop Brexit", a spin line that's been thoroughly debunked and only now believed by the easily led and gullible.
So nothing to explain.

The Lib Dem stance is that we've voted on what we want to leave hut not where we want to go and we need another referendum for that - one in which one side can't pretend to be all things to all people but where the explicit exit deal is presented for endorsement or rejection. And for the possibility of rejection to be meaningful, at least one of the alternative options has to allow for return to the previous status quo.

Why is that anti-democratic? Other than entertaining a possibility you don't like?

And I have a lot more time for politicians who have a clear view as to what is right for the country, and stick to it (as UKIP also would have done after a Remain vote) than for the so-called official opposition party that is floundering about all over the place and doesn't have a clear position on any of the issues of the day, whether Brexit, austerity, LHR3 or Trident.

What UKIP would have done and the LibDems are doing is not equivalent.

UKIP would have continued to campaign to leave. That is fine in a democratic society.

The LibDems are calling to ignore the will of the people. What they should be do is to make the case to remain, but not to try and frustrate the decision of the people. Work with it, make it as palatable as possible, try to change minds, but don't frustrate (e.g. vote against Article 50)

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies if it has already been mentioned, but Eric Bristow, what an utter belllend.

His twitter self-immolation last night was quite something...

Pulpstar said:

Patrick said:

.. I am a fan of radical lefty policies (hence my avatar), but we need a front man or front woman who the voters can see as their next PM...

You're clearly not a fan of logic or common sense then Sandy. Is it not obvious yet that radical leftyism and being a credible PM are mutually incompatible? When Corbyn's Labour get creamed at the next GE will you advocate someone even more insanely lefty to lead? The Tories would love that.

Is Clive Lewis more left wing than Corbyn ?

On defense he abstained rather than voted against on the nuclear question. He also won't be tarred with the IRA brush like the shadow chancellor.
McDonnell is to the left of Corbyn, but not Lewis I think - being a former soldier will help Labour on that weak point. Also the PM/pendulum will be swinging away from the Tories come 2025 - and Labour for all their woes are still in second place at the moment.
I think Lewis has a better chance here for 2025 than people are making out, 9 years is a good while in politics.

It's hard to say, he's playing things quite astutely. He defends Corbyn and makes lefties feel like he's on their side but he doesn't seem committed to anything that would prevent him making a convincing pivot.

IIUC the Trident policy was part of a deal with the unions, but on actual votes he seems to have followed the wisdom of John Major's wisdom tooth:
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25356/clive_lewis/norwich_south/divisions?policy=984

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apologies if it has already been mentioned, but Eric Bristow, what an utter belllend.

His twitter self-immolation last night was quite something...

He's deleted the tweets now, but that 'I meant paedos not poofs' tweet....

Sky have sacked him, which is a good start

Tissue_Price said:

ECVs finally settled at Betfair. 1% free money still available on vote shares and Popular Vote winner. Turnout looks like the same @ 1.03 but DYOR on that.

Bah have left mobile at home so can't login.

Anyway glad they haven't waited for Stein's recount nonsense.

dr_spyn said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

SandyRentool said:

MaxPB said:

SandyRentool said:

I agree with Zac on Brexit, on Heathrow and on what many PBers would consider to be "green crap". I always thought he was a Tory in name only, and think that he will feel a lot more at home sat next to Caroline Lucas on the opposition green benches.

As if Lucas would let Zac into the party. He's not a crypto commie like the rest of the party.

I'll just let my other half know that she is a crypto commie. Maybe I should leave it until after I've asked for a cup of coffee.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting he joins the Green Party. I was just trying to be clever saying green benches, but not Green benches.

That would be the most remarkable outcome, given that Lucas has been out door-knocking for the LibDems in the by-election, surely providing a future quiz question as to the only time any party leader has actively campaigned in an election for a candidate from another party.

And utterly bonkers. Zac is a green conservative. Lucas should be encouraging people like him who agree on climate change, airports etc etc. Far more likely to work with her as an indie than a new LibDem who would be just as tribal as the rest of LibDems imho.

Lucas is nothing more than a watermelon. The Green party is just a tool she wants to use to push a radical leftist agenda.

Talking of Greens, PBers might be interested to know current Green MEP Molly Scott Cato has been selected to fight key seat of Bristol West at next GE. 9% behind Labour iirc.

Not sure that her judgement is that good.

https://twitter.com/MollyMEP/status/802414656669159424

Oh deary dear. It must be deeply troubling to sensible environmentalists that the movement overall has been completely captured by hard lefty scumbags. Who can you vote for if you are primarily motivated by green issues but not a fanboy of communist murderers?

edmundintokyo said:

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

SandyRentool said:

MaxPB said:

SandyRentool said:

I agree with Zac on Brexit, on Heathrow and on what many PBers would consider to be "green crap". I always thought he was a Tory in name only, and think that he will feel a lot more at home sat next to Caroline Lucas on the opposition green benches.

As if Lucas would let Zac into the party. He's not a crypto commie like the rest of the party.

I'll just let my other half know that she is a crypto commie. Maybe I should leave it until after I've asked for a cup of coffee.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting he joins the Green Party. I was just trying to be clever saying green benches, but not Green benches.

That would be the most remarkable outcome, given that Lucas has been out door-knocking for the LibDems in the by-election, surely providing a future quiz question as to the only time any party leader has actively campaigned in an election for a candidate from another party.

And utterly bonkers. Zac is a green conservative. Lucas should be encouraging people like him who agree on climate change, airports etc etc. Far more likely to work with her as an indie than a new LibDem who would be just as tribal as the rest of LibDems imho.

Has he said he'll stay independent?

He says he will, but, rather like Douglas Carswell, will most likely support the government on most votes.

Except for any votes on Heathrow expansion of course - which should go through easily anyway, most MPs will be in favour bar a few NIMBYs or local MPs to competitor airports.

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

Andy_Cooke said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

Thirst.

.

I do. Only because I don't want an extra quisling Lib Dem in the house.

Hmmm. The problem is that Zac might be worse than a quisling Lib Dem. The decision on large infrastructure projects that affect the entire country should not be determined by one MP throwing a strop in this manner.

Yes, but whether he wins or loses Heathrow is going ahead. In tge mean time the Lib Dems are trying to overturn the leave vote by whatever means necessary, the electoral commission should force them to change their name.

How dare there be any dissension!
We must airbrush them out of all photos for the sake of the people!

There was a democratic vote to leave the EU, the Lib Dems are trying to overturn that vote either in the courts or in the Lords. Explain how that is in any way something a party that purports to be either Liberal or Democratic would do?

They're not.
The hysterical Leave media try to portray the A50 issue as "trying to stop Brexit", a spin line that's been thoroughly debunked and only now believed by the easily led and gullible.
So nothing to explain.

The Lib Dem stance is that we've voted on what we want to leave hut not where we want to go and we need another referendum for that - one in which one side can't pretend to be all things to all people but where the explicit exit deal is presented for endorsement or rejection. And for the possibility of rejection to be meaningful, at least one of the alternative options has to allow for return to the previous status quo.

Why is that anti-democratic? Other than entertaining a possibility you don't like?

And I have a lot more time for politicians who have a clear view as to what is right for the country, and stick to it (as UKIP also would have done after a Remain vote) than for the so-called official opposition party that is floundering about all over the place and doesn't have a clear position on any of the issues of the day, whether Brexit, austerity, LHR3 or Trident.

What UKIP would have done and the LibDems are doing is not equivalent.

UKIP would have continued to campaign to leave. That is fine in a democratic society.

The LibDems are calling to ignore the will of the people. What they should be do is to make the case to remain, but not to try and frustrate the decision of the people. Work with it, make it as palatable as possible, try to change minds, but don't frustrate (e.g. vote against Article 50)

Ha! The double standard naked for all to see.

FPT

PlatoSaid said:


This is an entertaining twitter thread - read the replies

Lady C
Comments on this thread are priceless!! https://t.co/rjqr6Rqefm

Bank of England
@SteffiRox there is a trace of tallow in the polymer pellets used in the base substrate of the polymer £5 notes


Hope this does not lead to a re-run of 1857. Did none of the BoE officials study history?