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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Based on the success of other MPs who resigned to fight by-elections Zac’s chances are good
In much of the discussion on Richmond Park a lot has been made of the 19%+ CON>LD swing that the yellows achieved in Witney which is almost exactly what is required in Thursday’s contest. The only difference is that in this latest by-election the LDs are fighting the incumbent and there is a well recorded incumbency effect.
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Who on here actually wants Zac to win? I'm not sure I do.
I'll win a ton more on Zac mind and see no reason to change that (+30/+130 odd)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/nov/29/tories-have-16-pt-lead-over-labour-and-highest-vote-share-for-7-years-poll-suggests-politics-live?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
16 point lead for the blue team.
1. Labour/Green squeeze (8-12% of total vote) +3,000 to 5,000
2. Tory switchers because of Brexit (10-20% of Tory vote) +2,500 to 5,000
3. Differential turnout because Zac has caused an "unnecessary" by election; he isn't standing as a Tory; Remainers are fired up in RP; LibDems will have a ferocious GOTV. (5-10% of Tory vote) +1,000 to 2,500
LibDem base on 50% turnout is about 8,000 votes, Zac's is about 24,000.
You can do the maths. - But I'll do it for you.
At the top end of my ranges, Sarah ends up on 20,500, Zac on 16,500 (LD maj 4,000 - very unlikely)
At my mid point, Sarah gets 17,500, Zac gets 19,000 (Zac maj 1,500 - my best guess)
At my low point, Sarah gets 14,500, Zac gets 20,500 (Zac maj 6,000 - a disappointing result but still a reduction of his majority from 23,000 to 6,000)
Anyway I must be off. More deliveries followed by more canvassing.
Anyway, I'm not suggesting he joins the Green Party. I was just trying to be clever saying green benches, but not Green benches.
'The tables, which ICM will publish later today (I will post a link as soon as they’re online) show the Tories ahead of Labour amongst every social grade, even DEs (where the Tories are on 33% and Labour 32%). The Tories are also ahead amongst all age groups, apart from 18 to 24-year-olds.'
Corbynism sweeping the nation......
Conservatives: 44% (up 2 points from ICM earlier this month)
Labour: 28% (no change)
Ukip: 12% (up 1)
Lib Dems: 7% (down 2)
Greens: 4% (up 1)
Conservative lead: 16 points (up 2)
Boon also says the figures for Labour are bleak. The tables, which ICM will publish later today (I will post a link as soon as they’re online) show the Tories ahead of Labour amongst every social grade, even DEs (where the Tories are on 33% and Labour 32%). The Tories are also ahead amongst all age groups, apart from 18 to 24-year-olds.
I expect the Corbynites will actually welcome a GE loss as it allows them to fully reshape their party and purge the last of New Labour.
She's obviously useless - we keep being told so.......
If he was standing against pro-LHR3 candidates, and was returned with a massively increased majority, it might at least have been a demonstration of voters' rejection of the third runway. But that isn't going to happen, and Zac knew from the beginning that his principal opponent would come from a party with a longer track record of opposing the expansion than his has. He also knew, given the nature the seat, that most likely all his principal opponents would share the same view.
It's a well educated and aware constituency, and people will have realised that Zac just scraping home against another anti-LHR3 candidate will make no difference to what happens to the runway. And so re-electing Zac sends no message at all, whereas the LibDem candidate at least offers a chance to send a message on Brexit.
I agree with Mike that there will be a loyalty factor in favour of an MP who has taken a principled if dumb stand. But it could be close, nevertheless.
We must airbrush them out of all photos for the sake of the people!
You don't have to be any good to win. Just sufficiently marginally better than the one real alternative.
No wonder the Big Two love FPTP so much. True competition, disciplined pluralism, free market philosophies are for other people.
So the highest in office in nearly a quarter of a century
If only May was as good as Cameron......
Spot on from @thequentinletts: "If Paul Nuttall were Labour leader, the Tories might have a problem."
ICM poll: Tories lead w/every social grade, 20 pts up w/ aged 65+ & 25 pts in the South. Oh, plus they lead in the North by 10 pts too. https://t.co/49LfFwN9By
There's 17 on that at Ladbrokes. Given Hamilton appears to have quit (then been persuaded to stay) after Spain this year... that may be value. If I put anything on it'll only be change, mind.
Surely only a matter of time before Billy Bragg goes UKIP.
The hysterical Leave media try to portray the A50 issue as "trying to stop Brexit", a spin line that's been thoroughly debunked and only now believed by the easily led and gullible.
So nothing to explain.
The Lib Dem stance is that we've voted on what we want to leave hut not where we want to go and we need another referendum for that - one in which one side can't pretend to be all things to all people but where the explicit exit deal is presented for endorsement or rejection. And for the possibility of rejection to be meaningful, at least one of the alternative options has to allow for return to the previous status quo.
Why is that anti-democratic? Other than entertaining a possibility you don't like?
Labour. Gee.
Scottish sub-sample klaxon
SNP 41% Con 30% Lab 19% Lib Dem 5% UKIP 3% Greens 2%
We need the CLP to come to a deal, whereby Corbyn's chosen one is guaranteed a place in the leadership ballot in return for him quitting. I hoped this would happen back in the summer, but alas not.
Know we've many history buffs here. If you don't follow this account, it's a treat
British Museum
What do you think this #MysteryObject was used for? https://t.co/w3KwoHneIb
EDIT Oh, and good moaning, Max....
You're clearly not a fan of logic or common sense then Sandy. Is it not obvious yet that radical leftyism and being a credible PM are mutually incompatible? When Corbyn's Labour get creamed at the next GE will you advocate someone even more insanely lefty to lead? The Tories would love that.
If the Spain rumour, which appears well-sourced, is true, then he's a bit more volatile than expected and the team may be getting pissed off with him (which may explain the perhaps unexpected radio calls during the last race).
He didn't leave McLaren over pace, but reliability, after all.
Mr. Eagles, so mostly inherited and a few came over with him. Toys and prams spring to mind. Failures in 2014 were about equal, likewise 2015.
Q: Stephen Hawking recently said the Earth only has 1,000 years left. As someone who has written about environmental issues, does that alarm you?
A: Well, nobody really knows, do they? They told Stephen Hawking he only had a year left to live and how many years ago was that? You can’t know it all. If ever there’s been somebody to hold as an icon of sheer determination and willpower, it’s that guy, let alone any of the things he’s done scientifically.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38138815
"The government is to outline moves later to make companies justify high levels of executive pay."
The only place he could possibly want would be Kimi's seat in the red car, wih a serious plan to get back to winning ways - but that seems a long way off at the currently disorganised Maranello outfit, with senior people leaving rather than joining since James Allison left earlier this year.
I think Toto and Niki Lauda will over time realise that Lewis did nothing wrong, after all Niki was the guy who got back in the car with his face still burning because he was so desperate to win the title. 60,000 of us who were watching it live, and millions more watching it on TV, got the grandstand finish to the championship that the sport deserved. My brother and his girlfriend attended their first race on Sunday, and are already planning on going next year - that's two more happy F1 customers, who'd have probably left with a different impression if Lewis had just driven off into the distance.
On defense he abstained rather than voted against on the nuclear question. He also won't be tarred with the IRA brush like the shadow chancellor.
McDonnell is to the left of Corbyn, but not Lewis I think - being a former soldier will help Labour on that weak point. Also the PM/pendulum will be swinging away from the Tories come 2025 - and Labour for all their woes are still in second place at the moment.
I think Lewis has a better chance here for 2025 than people are making out, 9 years is a good while in politics.
UKIP would have continued to campaign to leave. That is fine in a democratic society.
The LibDems are calling to ignore the will of the people. What they should be do is to make the case to remain, but not to try and frustrate the decision of the people. Work with it, make it as palatable as possible, try to change minds, but don't frustrate (e.g. vote against Article 50)
However, the Labour MPs should nonetheless get behind him. He's won two members votes with around 60%.
The SNP and Plaid combined are hard capped at around 60ish seats, and even UKIP in their wildest dreams won't win more than 20 (Absolubte max) seats in the north of Labour. Their hard floor is probably around 110 seats (Sub 150-170 seats gets very hard for Labour to pull off) ... and they'll do worse if they head into GE2020 a divided party.
They will still be the second largest party come the 2020-25 cycle.
IIUC the Trident policy was part of a deal with the unions, but on actual votes he seems to have followed the wisdom of John Major's wisdom tooth:
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25356/clive_lewis/norwich_south/divisions?policy=984
https://twitter.com/MollyMEP/status/802414656669159424
Sky have sacked him, which is a good start
Sigh
<pops off to play Hounds of Love>
Anyway glad they haven't waited for Stein's recount nonsense.
The Lib Dems are calling for a further referendum on the destination and campaigning for that.
Or is it an example of one of those irregular verbs?
- I continue to campaign for the UK to do what I believe regardless of it just having lost, in which is fine in a democratic society.
- You are moaning about the result and should just get on board with the result
- He is trying to frustrate the decision of the people, the quisling.
Except for any votes on Heathrow expansion of course - which should go through easily anyway, most MPs will be in favour bar a few NIMBYs or local MPs to competitor airports.
I wish i had saved some of them for posterity. What an utter cockwomble.
PlatoSaid said:
This is an entertaining twitter thread - read the replies
Lady C
Comments on this thread are priceless!! https://t.co/rjqr6Rqefm
Bank of England
@SteffiRox there is a trace of tallow in the polymer pellets used in the base substrate of the polymer £5 notes
Hope this does not lead to a re-run of 1857. Did none of the BoE officials study history?