politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Populism Trumps the Status Quo

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

brokenwheel said:

Currently;

FF 67.3% AJ 32.7%

Down from 69.5%, the fightback is on!!

Shame he needs about 150% of the remaining vote.

Leftwing areas slow counting ... again ?

Luckily for Juppé there are 1.3m votes left to count in Miami-Dade Bordeaux, should see him through

Some judges who truly are the enemies of the people.

https://twitter.com/harrywalker1/status/802964829438738433

TheScreamingEagles said:

@MattChorley: Judges rule against Ed Balls and Honey G. #EnemiesOfThePeople

That doesn't really work for Honey G. She's hated.

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@MattChorley: Judges rule against Ed Balls and Honey G. #EnemiesOfThePeople

That doesn't really work for Honey G. She's hated.

Ah, I haven't watched X Factor for years.

Floater said:

A long but really excellent article over on Harry's place.

http://hurryupharry.org/2016/11/27/who-gave-us-post-truth-conspiracy-culture-and-the-alt-right/

Thanks for the link. Needs to be read by everyone on the left. Then acted on.

Trump is off on one again

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

Fillon 2 - 1 Juppé

TheScreamingEagles said:

I know it's a state issue, but given the control the GOP have of most states, that tweet from Trump is a harbinger of voter restrictions that would make Jim Crow blush isn't it?

Nailed on.

One man one vote, as long as it is a white man.

MarkHopkins said:

Alistair said:

Trump is off on one again

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

That's President-Elect Trump to you.

Your bomb shelter of self satisfaction at seeing your political rivals defeated, is not deep enough to insulate you from the awfulness of the reality that this man will be President

Paristonda said:

Attention turning to the Socialist Primary now - Hollande should be announcing soon whether he will stand or not. I think he will. I just don't see a first term President walking away from a chance to win, however miniscule. If he walks away it's not like he gains dignity - he will just be stepping down as the most unpopular Pres ever. He'll most likely lose the primary, but he's got to roll the dice at least.

I can't see it. He was clinging to the hope that his big enemy Sarkozy would make it through but after his defeat there's nothing left to play for. That Valls has already come out against him has to signal that it's all over.

SandyRentool said:

Floater said:

A long but really excellent article over on Harry's place.

http://hurryupharry.org/2016/11/27/who-gave-us-post-truth-conspiracy-culture-and-the-alt-right/

Thanks for the link. Needs to be read by everyone on the left. Then acted on.

Is this another one of those "Blame everyone except Trump voters for Trump, because they don't know better" pieces

So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).

What does this mean for the national picture?

Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.

The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).

That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.

williamglenn said:

Paristonda said:

Attention turning to the Socialist Primary now - Hollande should be announcing soon whether he will stand or not. I think he will. I just don't see a first term President walking away from a chance to win, however miniscule. If he walks away it's not like he gains dignity - he will just be stepping down as the most unpopular Pres ever. He'll most likely lose the primary, but he's got to roll the dice at least.

I can't see it. He was clinging to the hope that his big enemy Sarkozy would make it through but after his defeat there's nothing left to play for. That Valls has already come out against him has to signal that it's all over.

If Valls looked any more likely to do well nationally, I might agree. But Hollande might win the primary, and lose the presidency, which he would do even if he was 50% more popular.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).

What does this mean for the national picture?

Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.

The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).

That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.

Macron has a chance.

Barnesian said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).

What does this mean for the national picture?

Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.

The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).

That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.

Macron has a chance.

He's got a chance to turn the tables, but that's what he needs to do. He needs to take himself to 18%, and beat Fillon to 17%.

Get in!

I've retaken my rightful place atop the PB fantasy football league.

It was only a blip because of the fixture calendar.

williamglenn said:

O/T Putin's published an article in La Stampa in which he says NATO is outdated, America is not a banana republic whose election could be influenced from outside, the UN is the most legitimate international body and that Russia does not aspire to global dominance or expansion.

http://www.lastampa.it/2016/11/27/cultura/opinioni/editoriali/il-tempo-di-fidarsi-della-russia-fronte-comune-contro-il-terrore-KxnZkA38RMHFNSiG1V1tYN/pagina.html

Does he claim to be democratically elected too?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Barnesian said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).

What does this mean for the national picture?

Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.

The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).

That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.

Macron has a chance.

He's got a chance to turn the tables, but that's what he needs to do. He needs to take himself to 18%, and beat Fillon to 17%.

His best route to achieve that is if would-be Fillon voters can be persuaded to vote Le Pen in the first round as a protest on the basis that she won't win the run off and President Fillon is inevitable.

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Barnesian said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).

What does this mean for the national picture?

Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.

The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).

That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.

Macron has a chance.

He's got a chance to turn the tables, but that's what he needs to do. He needs to take himself to 18%, and beat Fillon to 17%.

His best route to achieve that is if would-be Fillon voters can be persuaded to vote Le Pen in the first round as a protest on the basis that she won't win the run off and President Fillon is inevitable.

Where is Fillon going with his policy of stopping gay people from adopting? Is he hopig to attract some older Le Pen voters? Would think that would hurt him in the general even if it helped him with the base.

nunu said:

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Barnesian said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).

What does this mean for the national picture?

Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.

The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).

That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.

Macron has a chance.

He's got a chance to turn the tables, but that's what he needs to do. He needs to take himself to 18%, and beat Fillon to 17%.

His best route to achieve that is if would-be Fillon voters can be persuaded to vote Le Pen in the first round as a protest on the basis that she won't win the run off and President Fillon is inevitable.

Where is Fillon going with his policy of stopping gay people from adopting? Is he hopig to attract some older Le Pen voters? Would think that would hurt him in the general even if it helped him with the base.

It's true to the Catholic right in France, of which he is a member. The "old France" under threat, etc. But if it were not for his personal beliefs, I do not think he would have taken it on as a policy. I think he wants a policy that takes France a step in the "right" direction, without really alienating opponents.

nunu said:

williamglenn said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Barnesian said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).

What does this mean for the national picture?

Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.

The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).

That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.

Macron has a chance.

He's got a chance to turn the tables, but that's what he needs to do. He needs to take himself to 18%, and beat Fillon to 17%.

His best route to achieve that is if would-be Fillon voters can be persuaded to vote Le Pen in the first round as a protest on the basis that she won't win the run off and President Fillon is inevitable.

Where is Fillon going with his policy of stopping gay people from adopting? Is he hopig to attract some older Le Pen voters? Would think that would hurt him in the general even if it helped him with the base.

He's always voted against gay rights measures even going back to the decriminalisation/equalisation of the age of consent in the early 80s. The adoption issue is complex as in France there are two different legal forms of adoption - it's the form which changes the legal parentage which Fillon doesn't think should be available if the adopting couple are of the same sex. In practice this would make it very difficult to adopt apart from within their own families. There's a big question mark about whether it's even constitutional so other than it being a personal conviction, it seems like nothing more than a dog whistle for the traditionalist Catholic vote.

In political terms I do think it's a mistake in positioning which Le Pen will be able to exploit if she's facing him in the run off, and will motivate younger votes to turn out for candidate best placed to stop Fillon getting into the final round.

TheScreamingEagles said:

What's the next level up from jumping the shark?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

Sad thing is, I bet loads on this site agree with this tweet.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What's the next level up from jumping the shark?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

I saw estimates of up to 3m illegal votes based on a study done for the 2012 election assuming similar numbers and that they all broke for Clinton it could actually be the case.

Except all the detected cases of voter fraud have been Republicans.

Now you may think you have evidence showing otherwise but we live in a post fact world now

gettingbetter said:

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What's the next level up from jumping the shark?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

Sad thing is, I bet loads on this site agree with this tweet.

I bet they don't. How do we define loads?

You want a definition of 'loads'? Really? Google is your friend.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.

May Pole dance?

daodao said:

Fillon is not necessarily the best person to beat Le Pen in a 2nd round run off. He is more socially conservative than her. He also believes in the free market and reducing the power of the state, whereas Le Pen advocates more state control/regulation and is frankly more of a socialist. He may be suspect as being more sympathetic to Britain, given his wife's background. Non-PC left-leaning French folk won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round.

The polls seem to have Le Pen on about 35% against both of them, although there haven't been many surveys and the ones there have been are a bit out of date.

The_Apocalypse said:

gettingbetter said:

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What's the next level up from jumping the shark?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

Sad thing is, I bet loads on this site agree with this tweet.

I bet they don't. How do we define loads?

You want a definition of 'loads'? Really? Google is your friend.

Shall we say 40%. How about a monkey at evens?

AndyJS said:

daodao said:

Fillon is not necessarily the best person to beat Le Pen in a 2nd round run off. He is more socially conservative than her. He also believes in the free market and reducing the power of the state, whereas Le Pen advocates more state control/regulation and is frankly more of a socialist. He may be suspect as being more sympathetic to Britain, given his wife's background. Non-PC left-leaning French folk won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round.

The polls seem to have Le Pen on about 35% against both of them, although there haven't been many surveys and the ones there have been are a bit out of date.

You never sweep up 100% of the vote, but the fact remains that in actual regional elections, the FN candidate never managed to capitalise on a 40%+ first round share, and in many cases went backwards. FIllon is no more abhorrent to the right than Chirac in 2002, although his pros and cons are different.

Poll puts Fillon in front of Le Pen in first round:

Fillon 26%
Le Pen 24%
Macron 14%
Mélenchon 13%
Hollande 9%
Bayrou 6%
Dupont-Aignan 3%
Jadot 3%

Second round:

Fillon 67%
Le Pen 33%

Sample: 6093 people.

Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.

gettingbetter said:

The_Apocalypse said:

gettingbetter said:

The_Apocalypse said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What's the next level up from jumping the shark?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

Sad thing is, I bet loads on this site agree with this tweet.

I bet they don't. How do we define loads?

You want a definition of 'loads'? Really? Google is your friend.

Shall we say 40%. How about a monkey at evens?

Didn't know that google was that specific at defining 'loads' at 40%. Also wasn't aware that monkeys were on PB, but you learn something new everyday

Dromedary said:

Poll puts Fillon in front of Le Pen in first round:

Fillon 26%
Le Pen 24%
Macron 14%
Mélenchon 13%
Hollande 9%
Bayrou 6%
Dupont-Aignan 3%
Jadot 3%

Second round:

Fillon 67%
Le Pen 33%

Sample: 6093 people.

Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.

That's a pretty monstrous poll for Fillon, the big big participation in Led Republicans primary makes me think it isn't so far off the mark either. If Fillon pushes right, he might be able to monster Le Pen - maybe a possibility of a Fillon/Macron final contest ?

Dromedary said:

Poll puts Fillon in front of Le Pen in first round:

Fillon 26%
Le Pen 24%
Macron 14%
Mélenchon 13%
Hollande 9%
Bayrou 6%
Dupont-Aignan 3%
Jadot 3%

Second round:

Fillon 67%
Le Pen 33%

Sample: 6093 people.

Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.

Two sentences on Dupont is too many.

I think Fillon is unlikely to beat Le Pen or rather her share is a little too low, I think it could be 26/30 in the first round. She has however shown remarkable consistency, never venturing much beyond 27-30% in three years.

NoEasyDay said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.

May Pole dance?

It will be interesting as she picks off each Country at head of state level.

Or May poledancing. ?

The *only* way for Britain to beat the EU blob is to win over Member States on their own terms, and to pry them away from the EU as an insitution. You can see the war going on between the (1) EU, (2) France and Germany, and (3) the other member states, Britain must get the right other party if it wants the right deal.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

NoEasyDay said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.

May Pole dance?

It will be interesting as she picks off each Country at head of state level.

Or May poledancing. ?

The *only* way for Britain to beat the EU blob is to win over Member States on their own terms, and to pry them away from the EU as an insitution. You can see the war going on between the (1) EU, (2) France and Germany, and (3) the other member states, Britain must get the right other party if it wants the right deal.

You missed the humour i intended.

Do you know what a pole dancer does ?

Jokes are lost when you have to explain them

chestnut said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.

May Pole dance?

It will be interesting as she picks off each Country at head of state level.

Her 'wait and see' approach may reel in some unlikely dividends.

I wonder how much of an EU there will be to negotiate with in 2019.

I believe Theresa May will work Country by Country and a deal will be achieved but for heavens sake lets get on with and serve A50

Pulpstar said:

Dromedary said:

Poll puts Fillon in front of Le Pen in first round:

Fillon 26%
Le Pen 24%
Macron 14%
Mélenchon 13%
Hollande 9%
Bayrou 6%
Dupont-Aignan 3%
Jadot 3%

Second round:

Fillon 67%
Le Pen 33%

Sample: 6093 people.

Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.

That's a pretty monstrous poll for Fillon, the big big participation in Led Republicans primary makes me think it isn't so far off the mark either. If Fillon pushes right, he might be able to monster Le Pen - maybe a possibility of a Fillon/Macron final contest ?

That's actually not inconceivable: I think that Le Pen and Fillon are fishing in the same broad area. Both are conservative (with a small 'c'), both are particularly concerned with the impact of Islamic immigration on France. And if you look at the Fillon vs Juppe debate, that was where he monstered her.

The question, to me, is whether he is able to take five points or so off of her, ending up in the high 20s, against her in the mid 20s. The question then is whether there would be tactical voting on the left. I cannot see Bayrou, Hollande/Valls or Macron voters going to Melanchon to avoid Le Pen vs Fillon. I could see them going to Macron.

NoEasyDay said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

NoEasyDay said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.

May Pole dance?

It will be interesting as she picks off each Country at head of state level.

Or May poledancing. ?

The *only* way for Britain to beat the EU blob is to win over Member States on their own terms, and to pry them away from the EU as an insitution. You can see the war going on between the (1) EU, (2) France and Germany, and (3) the other member states, Britain must get the right other party if it wants the right deal.

You missed the humour i intended.

Do you know what a pole dancer does ?

Jokes are lost when you have to explain them

I couldn't be bothered to quote the previous reply instead of yours.

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Dromedary said:

Poll puts Fillon in front of Le Pen in first round:

Fillon 26%
Le Pen 24%
Macron 14%
Mélenchon 13%
Hollande 9%
Bayrou 6%
Dupont-Aignan 3%
Jadot 3%

Second round:

Fillon 67%
Le Pen 33%

Sample: 6093 people.

Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.

That's a pretty monstrous poll for Fillon, the big big participation in Led Republicans primary makes me think it isn't so far off the mark either. If Fillon pushes right, he might be able to monster Le Pen - maybe a possibility of a Fillon/Macron final contest ?

That's actually not inconceivable: I think that Le Pen and Fillon are fishing in the same broad area. Both are conservative (with a small 'c'), both are particularly concerned with the impact of Islamic immigration on France. And if you look at the Fillon vs Juppe debate, that was where he monstered her.

The question, to me, is whether he is able to take five points or so off of her, ending up in the high 20s, against her in the mid 20s. The question then is whether there would be tactical voting on the left. I cannot see Bayrou, Hollande/Valls or Macron voters going to Melanchon to avoid Le Pen vs Fillon. I could see them going to Macron.

I see if now, RCS's "100 Ways Macron Could Win This Election" - I think we're on number four at the moment...

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Dromedary said:

Poll puts Fillon in front of Le Pen in first round:

Fillon 26%
Le Pen 24%
Macron 14%
Mélenchon 13%
Hollande 9%
Bayrou 6%
Dupont-Aignan 3%
Jadot 3%

Second round:

Fillon 67%
Le Pen 33%

Sample: 6093 people.

Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.

That's a pretty monstrous poll for Fillon, the big big participation in Led Republicans primary makes me think it isn't so far off the mark either. If Fillon pushes right, he might be able to monster Le Pen - maybe a possibility of a Fillon/Macron final contest ?

That's actually not inconceivable: I think that Le Pen and Fillon are fishing in the same broad area. Both are conservative (with a small 'c'), both are particularly concerned with the impact of Islamic immigration on France. And if you look at the Fillon vs Juppe debate, that was where he monstered her.

The question, to me, is whether he is able to take five points or so off of her, ending up in the high 20s, against her in the mid 20s. The question then is whether there would be tactical voting on the left. I cannot see Bayrou, Hollande/Valls or Macron voters going to Melanchon to avoid Le Pen vs Fillon. I could see them going to Macron.

I see if now, RCS's "100 Ways Macron Could Win This Election" - I think we're on number four at the moment...

Granted, I might be long and wrong

My view, fwiw, is that the French Left and Centre will end up giving someone 20% of the vote. It might be the new Socialist candidate, it might be Macron, it might even be Bayrou. But I think it is unlikely we'll end up with four candidates on the Centre and Left all polling between 9 and 15%.

I hardly know anything about French politics but am I the only person wondering:

Why don't the Left put up a united candidate? If they did they would surely have an excellent chance of making the 2nd Round and at least a reasonable shot at winning the Presidency.

How many votes does Fillon need to make the 2nd Round?

Looks like about 20% should be enough. Turnout last time was 35m so 20% would be 7m.

In comparison - it looks like he got just under 3m votes today - 2,847k with just over 2% of districts still to report.

williamglenn said:

O/T Putin's published an article in La Stampa in which he says NATO is outdated, America is not a banana republic whose election could be influenced from outside, the UN is the most legitimate international body and that Russia does not aspire to global dominance or expansion.

http://www.lastampa.it/2016/11/27/cultura/opinioni/editoriali/il-tempo-di-fidarsi-della-russia-fronte-comune-contro-il-terrore-KxnZkA38RMHFNSiG1V1tYN/pagina.html

That's up there with Blair's "I think I'm a pretty straight sort of guy" for deluded

megalomaniacs4u said:

williamglenn said:

O/T Putin's published an article in La Stampa in which he says NATO is outdated, America is not a banana republic whose election could be influenced from outside, the UN is the most legitimate international body and that Russia does not aspire to global dominance or expansion.

http://www.lastampa.it/2016/11/27/cultura/opinioni/editoriali/il-tempo-di-fidarsi-della-russia-fronte-comune-contro-il-terrore-KxnZkA38RMHFNSiG1V1tYN/pagina.html

That's up there with Blair's "I think I'm a pretty straight sort of guy" for deluded

What evidence do you have that he's not straight? I've not heard the slightest whiff of a story about an ex-boyfriend.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What's the next level up from jumping the shark?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

I saw estimates of up to 3m illegal votes based on a study done for the 2012 election assuming similar numbers and that they all broke for Clinton it could actually be the case.

Link or stfu

TheScreamingEagles said:

What's the next level up from jumping the shark?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

If we're talking about this not the corruption, he's winning. A dead cat every day until 2020.

edmundintokyo said:

If we're talking about this not the corruption, he's winning. A dead cat every day until 2020.

Do you think if one time he literally tweeted a story relating to dead cats people would twig what he was doing?

williamglenn said:

edmundintokyo said:

If we're talking about this not the corruption, he's winning. A dead cat every day until 2020.

Do you think if one time he literally tweeted a story relating to dead cats people would twig what he was doing?

This is the thing, even if we all know what he's doing, it still works.

edmundintokyo said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What's the next level up from jumping the shark?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664

I saw estimates of up to 3m illegal votes based on a study done for the 2012 election assuming similar numbers and that they all broke for Clinton it could actually be the case.

Link or stfu

"Known to cognitive neuroscientists as the Dunning-Kruger effect, the troubling mental condition explains why many people are willing to believe anything Donald Trump says, whether his statements are true or not."

http://www.inquisitr.com/3605574/the-twisted-psychology-of-trump-supporters/