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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Populism Trumps the Status Quo
The political earthquake that the Republican Party’s president-elect has sparked is bigger than the United States of America, and bigger, even, than the ego of “braggadocios” Donald Trump. With tremors still being felt right around the globe, the shock outcome has taken virtually everyone by surprise and left not just the Democratic Party but also donkeys in the media looking rather jolted, dazed, and confused. Meanwhile, the call goes out for relevant conjecture on the part of those of us with experience of life both inside and outside the all important ‘enlightened’ metropolitan bubble at the centre of this, the mother of all plot twists.
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And to keep this off-topic: forget turducken for Christmas, the latest thing is c'thurkey.
http://www.avclub.com/article/never-forget-cthurkey-octopus-stuffed-turkey-hell-246399
(Warning: once seen cannot be unseen)
Undecided if I'll spread bet next year (my bets have been poor in the latter half and rather eroded my account) but I will offer suggestions at least, if I remember.
On-topic: interesting piece, Mr. Glassford.
How we leave the EU (if we do) and how our new relationship works with the institution will have a substantial bearing on how this sort of thing progresses.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/abu-dhabi-post-race-analysis-2016.html
The season review will probably be up in a few days/weeks.
My quick response is that 'Blue Labour' has to be part of Labour's response to the new political order. Debating gender-neutral bathrooms is not what working class voters want to hear.
Surely, if we are in a mindful state, and have the growth, as opposed to fixed, mindset, then none of this change is anxiety-causing or even threatening. It is merely an opportunity.
Take the jargon away, and I think I mostly agree with what you say. But bringing it back down to the individual level, is it all not because our Western culture now measures us by achievements, not process. Consumerism is merely the tangible and visible expression of our success measured by outcomes. Community and family success are, in contrast, about the now undervalued process. How do politicians revived the mindful, growth mindset more broadly in the population?
The turkey teddybear is by far the most horrendous
Although Trump's win should remind us that nothing is impossible in politics, in our system where Labour are offering essentially the stale clichés of 1960s radical socialism while people actually want jobs and financial security, Corbyn is only likely to lead them backwards.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2528439/Is-horrific-Christmas-meal-Russian-artist-stitches-teddy-bear-clumps-meat-chicken-skin.html
Urgh.
Admittedly the right isn't much better, but there's a grudging respect from the public that at least the right's focus on making money might serve some greater purpose down the track.
http://www.avclub.com/article/1876-saw-election-even-more-crazed-and-contentious-246229
Best summed up by playing the race card over immigration concerns. No effort to understand people's concerns about culture, wages or social cohesion, just condemnation of someone for holding the wrong view*.
And now those on the receiving end are returning the favour. That may well be why so many people were not convinced by almost the whole political establishment siding with Remain.
It'd be interesting to know how things would've gone had Cameron gotten a deal worth the name.
*As an aside, this also plays into the Government's perverted desire to ban all 'non-conventional' adult material from the intent.
oh and drop the identity politics.
Corbyn was at his happiest and most relaxed yesterday when eulogising a recently deceased dictator who banned trade unions, imprisoned homosexuals, banned elections, presided over endless shortages and drained political prisoners of blood before they were executed. He is never going to get to the point of being able to argue the case for Labour policies as most voters will close their ears to him.
Some of May's policies vary from questionable to demented.
How this will prevent anyone watching stuff they like in the inter-webby age remains a mystery.
If it's as you say, then it's a censorious but ineffective approach, and remains stupid legislation.
Interesting headline for a US news publication:
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/most-736472-democratic-necessary.html
The Labour Party does seem to be split between the SJWs who worry about trans-gender bathrooms, of interest to about half a dozen voters, and the more old fashioned politicians who concentrate on economic reforms.
The LDs get away with the SJW approach to some extent because they sort of mean well. But even here, patience can wear thin. However Labour SJWs tend to be aggressive, sneering at their opponents in an ugly fashion.
Jezza is stuck between the two camps. The Islington in him showing at unfortunate times.
But many of you are right (IMHO) in that it depends who's saying it. The Archbishop of Canterbury's or the Pope's concern for asylum seekers/migrants is probably sincere. The Luvvies' and the Emily Thornberry's virtue-signalling concerns are a chance to show how superior they are. And I doubt if the Pope or AoC would lecture on the need for transgender anything.
http://www.cityam.com/254463/brexit-buffer-mark-carney-pushes-stay-single-market-until
Just who does this man think he is? Jumped up little prick.
"Corbyn was at his happiest and most relaxed yesterday when eulogising a recently deceased dictator who banned trade unions, imprisoned homosexuals, banned elections, presided over endless shortages and drained political prisoners of blood before they were executed."
The means justifies the end if you know you're totally correct. And The Corbyns, Castro's and Guevara's know they are.
Ms Plato's clip of the views of the Cuban Missile crisis in Moscow was interesting. Truth is what the party says. Even during the Berlin wall construction, the citizens were told that it was built to prevent the Westerners trying to sneak into the land of milk and honey where Jezza took his squeeze on that motorcycle holiday.
Edit; Sorry - the end justifies the means, of course (not that I believe it).
Chapman?!
LOL!
(Actually a good article, but I struggle to get past the source)
http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-ministers-arrest-leaves-russian-officials-asking-whos-next-2016-11?r=US&IR=T
Many thanks for this Mr Glassford.
C'est 13% de plus que le taux de participation relevé au premier tour à la même heure.
Les derniers sondages prédisent la victoire de François Fillon avec 61% des suffrages contre 39% à Alain Juppé. (Poll I guess)
Selon Le Monde, les premiers résultats devraient tomber vers 20h30.
J'espere mon Betfair ne tomber pas aussi
"Les pro-Juppé et les sympathisants de gauche pourraient être davantage mobilisés ce dimanche pour le second tour de l'élection, pour faire barrage à François Fillon... En Gironde, un département qui a très majoritairement voté pour lui au premier tour, "5 à 7%" de votants supplémentaires se sont déjà rendus dans leurs bureaux de vote, selon une journaliste du Figaro."
Turnout 5 to 7% up in Juppé supporting areas in an effort to strengthen his battle against Fillon.
Which reminds me, I need to replay Tomb Raider in German at some point.
I used www.tools4noobs.com/summarize/ to summarise it as follows:
"What we are seeing, in the rise of populism, is an appeal to a population who are not simply divided along socioeconomic lines, or even in terms of the left-right political spectrum, but as a reflection of differential psycho-philosophical responses to largely unmandated societal transformation.
Ultimately, it’s about trust, which is fast disappearing at every level of society, and with the perception that the system is rotten from the top down and those behind the wheel determined to drive us off a cliff, our bought-off bureaucracy’s vehicles of progress, and even our direction of travel, are now in question.
Interestingly, here in the UK the Labour Party arguably has the most to lose or gain by ignoring or observing the take home message from recent developments, as it sets out its vision of ‘21st Century Socialism’.
However, what most commentators fail to appreciate, or perhaps daren’t say, is that the protest vote goes deeper than the much parroted axioms that people are uninspired by the same old insipid political ‘suits’, fed up with the malfeasance of the elite, have been economically ‘left behind’, or are simply “deplorable” ‘angry white men’."
Yes - that makes sense.
Southam, you are by far the best poster on this site. That has become even more clear as many of the PB right have shown their blatant double standards in the aftermath of Trump's victory. One thing, PBers don't seem to accept is that you can be concerned about a range of issues. There seems to the idea that if something doesn't affect most people it's unimportant. FGM, for example, won't affect most women in this country, but that doesn't mean it's not an abhorrent practice that we shouldn't care about. Society is a coalition of many groups and it's important to care about them all, and carry as many people with you as you can.
The most curious thing about the right, is for all their talk on what 'working class voters want' the lowest paid people in the country generally don't vote for their party, and the Conservatives have never really been the party of the working class. The working class have just been a useful human shield for the right to indirectly convey their own antipathy to not just recent immigration, but really post-war immigration in general. This site has a strange curiousity of comparing various ethnic minority groups and how they believe they've 'integrated', for example as if it were some sort of competition. Well, I wasn't aware of this competition until I came on this site.
Brexit on the other hand is a fact. It will be seen to transition well so people are content with the new situation; it will get stuck in the mud; or it will be an out and out fiasco. Theresa May can rhetorise as much as she wants but, unlike Trump, she will be judged entirely on results.
Unrepentant hypocrite Colin Kaepernick defends Fidel Castro
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article117033883.html
http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/chart4.jpg
It wouldn't even have to particularly tough policy on immigration. Just some semblance of control.
I don't see your point re that graph?
Most DE voters aren't voting Tory.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/abu-dhabi-post-race-analysis-2016.html
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/nov/27/wisconsin-elections-officials-see-no-proof-of-hack/
Make of that what you will.
"Donald Trump’s victory has changed politics irrevocably. The age of unchecked globalisation and armed missionaries for liberal values is over. And we are entering a new age of great-power rivalry."
http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2016/11/iron-law-oligarchy
According to the Geneva Tribune, Fillon has been elected on more than 60% of the vote.
French exit polls often leaked to Geneva.
15% left wing
12% unlabelled
9% far right
Similar to last week
Technically I think C2 is still working class, and your statement was "and the Conservatives have never really been the party of the working class", nothing to do with lowest paid.
There is no available bet to lay Juppé now
"Failed Minister of the Economy" is not an election winner on his CV.
How many times have we said that in the last year though...!
Francois Fillon 1.66 £211.00 £138.79
Alain Juppe 1.98 £43.00 £42.22 + £75 Ladbrokes at ~ Evens
Emmanuel Macron 18.50 £25.00 £437.50
Lay (Bet Against)
Alain Juppe 11.46 £74.00 £773.79
Have you ever seen a western account that acknowledges that the resolution of the "1962 Cuban missile crisis" was in fact balanced: a withdrawal of Soviet nukes from Cuba and a withdrawal of US nukes from Turkey?
The official western position is still that the US nukes in Turkey were about to be withdrawn anyway. Like yeah, right, sure they were.
Similarly the British government had "humoured" the Soviet government the previous year by exchanging Konon Molody, a wicked and thoroughly illegal Soviet spy, for Greville Wynne, an innocent British businessman who, as innocent as the day is long, got himself "caught up in a spy flap" while on an innocent business trip to Moscow - where he was seeking only profit, not secrets - and had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with SIS, repeat, nothing. The reason he had no diplomatic cover was that he wasn't a spy, OK? Because Britain has no illegals; that's the KGB's department. Britain is always fair and above board and doesn't use propaganda either.
Similarly the whole story about US overflights of Soviet industrial areas to check out suitable sites for nuking was a complete lie. How dare the Soviets accuse the US of such dirtiness! Until of course US pilot Gary Powers got captured. Then the US government couldn't maintain its line any longer, and Eisenhower had to change it to its exact opposite: "Hell yeah we overfly! And we've got a right to! We do it because the other side is dirty and we are clean!"
Then there's what in Britain is still called the "Suez War", during which there may have been cooperation with the French but there was absolutely no cooperation whatsoever with Israel. "Oh, was Israel at war against Egypt at the same time as we and the Frogs were? How terribly int'resting!" British foreign office officials were later accurately recorded as asking.
Le Pen -800
Fillon +291
Macron -140
He is widely regarded as a reformer who was stymied by his boss.
And there are a lot of centre and left wing votes in France that don't have a home: off the top of my head there is Melenchon 13%, Hollande/Valls 8%, the Green Candidate 4%, Bayrou 9%, and Macron 15%. He is the credible 'Stop a Le Pen vs Fillon" second round candidate.
I said this: ''The most curious thing about the right, is for all their talk on what 'working class voters want' the lowest paid people in the country generally don't vote for their party, and the Conservatives have never really been the party of the working class.''
I literally mentioned the lowest paid right before the bit you quoted.
On the DE I addressed that: the graph isn't showing a gradual increase over thirty years of DE voters voting Tory. It's showing periods where the DE vote bounces sometimes to 31% (as it did in the 80s and more recently) to periods in the 90s and 2000s, where it stays at under 29%.
The point is, is that most working class people in this country don't vote Tory.
And also why would left wing voters vote for thacherite Macron to stop thacherite Fillon anyway.
And I think that was a lie. AIUI the main purpose of the US spyflights was to keep track of the Soviet inventory of bombers and missiles, not "to check out suitable sites for nuking", though that might have been a secondary affect. Such flights proved that first the bomber gap, and later the missile gap, were fictions. In this way, the overflights actually helped cool the Cold War.
As a related aside, one of the reasons the Russians launched Sputnik first was that there was a certain reticence in the US about Soviet reactions to a satellite overflying their territory, or territory they had interests in. After Russia launched Sputnik first, all such concerns naturally evaporated.
Warning of the risks of Brexit was much closer to his job than this!