De nombreuses allusions laissent pourtant entendre que François Fillon sera très vite déclaré gagnant : des envoyés spéciaux ont par exemple fait remarquer que plusieurs cadres juppéistes ont disparu du QG de campagne du maire de Bordeaux.
There are a number of indications that Fillon will be declared the winner; for example several Juppéists have left the headquarters of Juppé's campaign
Macron backers will be hoping for a Fillon victory
I can't understand this obsession with Macron, being Minister of the Economy under Hollande is not a vote getter, it's a vote repeller.
"Failed Minister of the Economy" is not an election winner on his CV.
Yet he gets twice the first round votes of Valls or Hollande in the polls.
He is widely regarded as a reformer who was stymied by his boss.
And there are a lot of centre and left wing votes in France that don't have a home: off the top of my head there is Melenchon 13%, Hollande/Valls 8%, the Green Candidate 4%, Bayrou 9%, and Macron 15%. He is the credible 'Stop a Le Pen vs Fillon" second round candidate.
I wouldn't touch anything that has the stink of the Hollande government, especially on the economy, so Hollande, Valls, Macron are out.
And also why would left wing voters vote for thacherite Macron to stop thacherite Fillon anyway.
I think you are in a minority of one if you think Macron is Thatcherite.
François Fillon wants to build an EU army and an alliance with Russia (I believe the fashionable phrase is "Good luck with that"), and an alliance with Iran too, and to position the euro as a reserve currency to rival the US dollar. Not much Thatcherism there. But wait. He promises to cut public spending, to boot the trade unions, and to extend the working week. Cries of "That's more like it!" and "Stop mollycoddling the chavs!" were heard in Rotary clubs across England and Wales, but it's not a huge deal to be more popular than Juppé and Sarkozy, and can he actually win? He will be at 1.4 by tomorrow, but by April? He's such a tea-drinking "Englishman in French clothing", though, that he'll love the first round being on St George's Day.
Perhaps the biggest issue of the election once the primaries are over will be the EU. If Le Pen embraces Frexit, rather than just saying she'll hold a referendum, she's in with a strong chance.
One sub-indicator here is whether Nigel Farage will back her. OK I've just lampooned the "how it looks from England" attitude, but I believe his backing could play well among the French electorate.
The Soviets gained more from the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Krushchev was concerned about the Jupiter missiles being based in Turkey, so wanted parity. His sabre-rattling was dangerous because he underestimated Castro's lunacy. They realised then how close to war they were coming.
However, he gained the withdrawal of the Jupiter missiles, albeit at the cost of discovering how unstable Castro could be. They may have lost the PR battle, but then no one trusted Pravda anyway, so he had little to lose.
Macron backers will be hoping for a Fillon victory
I can't understand this obsession with Macron, being Minister of the Economy under Hollande is not a vote getter, it's a vote repeller.
"Failed Minister of the Economy" is not an election winner on his CV.
Yet he gets twice the first round votes of Valls or Hollande in the polls.
He is widely regarded as a reformer who was stymied by his boss.
And there are a lot of centre and left wing votes in France that don't have a home: off the top of my head there is Melenchon 13%, Hollande/Valls 8%, the Green Candidate 4%, Bayrou 9%, and Macron 15%. He is the credible 'Stop a Le Pen vs Fillon" second round candidate.
I wouldn't touch anything that has the stink of the Hollande government, especially on the economy, so Hollande, Valls, Macron are out.
And also why would left wing voters vote for thacherite Macron to stop thacherite Fillon anyway.
I think you are in a minority of one if you think Macron is Thatcherite.
Macron backers will be hoping for a Fillon victory
I can't understand this obsession with Macron, being Minister of the Economy under Hollande is not a vote getter, it's a vote repeller.
"Failed Minister of the Economy" is not an election winner on his CV.
Yet he gets twice the first round votes of Valls or Hollande in the polls.
He is widely regarded as a reformer who was stymied by his boss.
And there are a lot of centre and left wing votes in France that don't have a home: off the top of my head there is Melenchon 13%, Hollande/Valls 8%, the Green Candidate 4%, Bayrou 9%, and Macron 15%. He is the credible 'Stop a Le Pen vs Fillon" second round candidate.
I wouldn't touch anything that has the stink of the Hollande government, especially on the economy, so Hollande, Valls, Macron are out.
And also why would left wing voters vote for thacherite Macron to stop thacherite Fillon anyway.
I think you are in a minority of one if you think Macron is Thatcherite.
My friends in Paris are real fans of his
Almost everyone I know thinks well of him, even those who disagree with him. He's also managed to be one of those politicians onto whom people project their hopes (in the absence of detailed policy statements). I think that puts him in a place to pick up quite a few first round votes. And there are a lot of centrist and left wing voters in France without a home.
François Fillon wants to build an EU army and an alliance with Russia (I believe the fashionable phrase is "Good luck with that"), and an alliance with Iran too, and to position the euro as a reserve currency to rival the US dollar. Not much Thatcherism there. But wait. He promises to cut public spending, to boot the trade unions, and to extend the working week. Cries of "That's more like it!" and "Stop mollycoddling the chavs!" were heard in Rotary clubs across England and Wales, but it's not a huge deal to be more popular than Juppé and Sarkozy, and can he actually win? He will be at 1.4 by tomorrow, but by April? He's such a tea-drinking "Englishman in French clothing", though, that he'll love the first round being on St George's Day.
Perhaps the biggest issue of the election once the primaries are over will be the EU. If Le Pen embraces Frexit, rather than just saying she'll hold a referendum, she's in with a strong chance.
One sub-indicator here is whether Nigel Farage will back her. OK I've just lampooned the "how it looks from England" attitude, but I believe his backing could play well among the French electorate.
Most of the Le Pen supporters I know, and I know quite a few, are massively more concerned about Muslim immigration and lack of integration into French culture than they are about the EU.
Also, isn't FN policy to have a referendum on French membership of the Euro, rather than the EU?
Stein is all about trying to extract as much $$$ from Clinton supporters.
Somebody had better tell the Wisconsin attorney-general then, rather than abusing their position as US president-elect. If a charge of fraud is laid, Jill Stein will be entitled to a fair trial and the verdict should be decided on the evidence that's put before the court rather than Donald Trump's tweets. And when will Trump divest himself of his foreign-held assets and the private business arrangements he enjoys with foreign parties? The amount of money that Stein is collecting is miniscule and probably wouldn't even buy a penthouse flat in a Trump skyscraper in Istanbul or Panama.
Macron backers will be hoping for a Fillon victory
I can't understand this obsession with Macron, being Minister of the Economy under Hollande is not a vote getter, it's a vote repeller.
"Failed Minister of the Economy" is not an election winner on his CV.
Yet he gets twice the first round votes of Valls or Hollande in the polls.
He is widely regarded as a reformer who was stymied by his boss.
And there are a lot of centre and left wing votes in France that don't have a home: off the top of my head there is Melenchon 13%, Hollande/Valls 8%, the Green Candidate 4%, Bayrou 9%, and Macron 15%. He is the credible 'Stop a Le Pen vs Fillon" second round candidate.
I wouldn't touch anything that has the stink of the Hollande government, especially on the economy, so Hollande, Valls, Macron are out.
And also why would left wing voters vote for thacherite Macron to stop thacherite Fillon anyway.
I think you are in a minority of one if you think Macron is Thatcherite.
My friends in Paris are real fans of his
Almost everyone I know thinks well of him, even those who disagree with him. He's also managed to be one of those politicians onto whom people project their hopes (in the absence of detailed policy statements). I think that puts him in a place to pick up quite a few first round votes. And there are a lot of centrist and left wing voters in France without a home.
François Fillon wants to build an EU army and an alliance with Russia (I believe the fashionable phrase is "Good luck with that"), and an alliance with Iran too, and to position the euro as a reserve currency to rival the US dollar. Not much Thatcherism there. But wait. He promises to cut public spending, to boot the trade unions, and to extend the working week. Cries of "That's more like it!" and "Stop mollycoddling the chavs!" were heard in Rotary clubs across England and Wales, but it's not a huge deal to be more popular than Juppé and Sarkozy, and can he actually win? He will be at 1.4 by tomorrow, but by April? He's such a tea-drinking "Englishman in French clothing", though, that he'll love the first round being on St George's Day.
Perhaps the biggest issue of the election once the primaries are over will be the EU. If Le Pen embraces Frexit, rather than just saying she'll hold a referendum, she's in with a strong chance.
One sub-indicator here is whether Nigel Farage will back her. OK I've just lampooned the "how it looks from England" attitude, but I believe his backing could play well among the French electorate.
Most of the Le Pen supporters I know, and I know quite a few, are massively more concerned about Muslim immigration and lack of integration into French culture than they are about the EU.
Also, isn't FN policy to have a referendum on French membership of the Euro, rather than the EU?
I think there is an element of national pride, a political project where France leads, when considering the EU.
A very heavy read! Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease of 23. - "Very difficult to read. Best understood by university graduates." Fine for Richmond Park.
I used www.tools4noobs.com/summarize/ to summarise it as follows:
"What we are seeing, in the rise of populism, is an appeal to a population who are not simply divided along socioeconomic lines, or even in terms of the left-right political spectrum, but as a reflection of differential psycho-philosophical responses to largely unmandated societal transformation.
Ultimately, it’s about trust, which is fast disappearing at every level of society, and with the perception that the system is rotten from the top down and those behind the wheel determined to drive us off a cliff, our bought-off bureaucracy’s vehicles of progress, and even our direction of travel, are now in question.
Interestingly, here in the UK the Labour Party arguably has the most to lose or gain by ignoring or observing the take home message from recent developments, as it sets out its vision of ‘21st Century Socialism’.
However, what most commentators fail to appreciate, or perhaps daren’t say, is that the protest vote goes deeper than the much parroted axioms that people are uninspired by the same old insipid political ‘suits’, fed up with the malfeasance of the elite, have been economically ‘left behind’, or are simply “deplorable” ‘angry white men’."
Yes - that makes sense.
That's a fascinating resource.
Micro-summarising the summary, I get:
"Many people whatever their income level or left-right preferences deeply distrust the system and its administrators. The Labour party has most to lose or gain."
On Macron, I showed a picture of him to my mum and she thinks women will vote for him.
That's it. I'm going all in.
You're going all in on Macron, but what are you doing with your bets?
You misunderstand, he's going all in on tlg's mum
This is starting to sound like a What'sApp chat with your mates.
It's not the the WhatsApp chat with my mates that gets me into trouble
Do I want to hear more.
Put it this way, there's an accident waiting to happen when your current girlfriend, ex, and your executive assistant, are listed next to each other on the contact on your phone, and all three of them have Christian names beginning with Mel
? The amount of money that Stein is collecting is miniscule and probably wouldn't even buy a penthouse flat in a Trump skyscraper in Istanbul or Panama.
Trump is already making money from being president elect. The Secret Service have had to rent out two floors of Trump Towers. That is done at commercial rates and it goes staight feom the public's purse to Trump's company.
On Macron, I showed a picture of him to my mum and she thinks women will vote for him.
That's it. I'm going all in.
You're going all in on Macron, but what are you doing with your bets?
You misunderstand, he's going all in on tlg's mum
This is starting to sound like a What'sApp chat with your mates.
It's not the the WhatsApp chat with my mates that gets me into trouble
Do I want to hear more.
Put it this way, there's an accident waiting to happen when your current girlfriend, ex, and your executive assistant, are listed next to each other on the contact on your phone, and all three of them have Christian names beginning with Mel
Betfair aren't offering a price on Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of Debout La France, who is currently scoring around 4% in polling for the first round. Dupont-Aignan is Nigel Farage's preferred candidate. Like Nigel, Nicolas enjoys giving interviews to Russia Today Unlike Fillon and Le Pen, he's an énarque.
I doubt that Farage will wait until the results of the first round before he endorses Le Pen. Kushner, Breitbart and the White House will tell him do it much sooner.
François Fillon wants to build an EU army and an alliance with Russia (I believe the fashionable phrase is "Good luck with that"), and an alliance with Iran too, and to position the euro as a reserve currency to rival the US dollar. Not much Thatcherism there. But wait. He promises to cut public spending, to boot the trade unions, and to extend the working week. Cries of "That's more like it!" and "Stop mollycoddling the chavs!" were heard in Rotary clubs across England and Wales, but it's not a huge deal to be more popular than Juppé and Sarkozy, and can he actually win? He will be at 1.4 by tomorrow, but by April? He's such a tea-drinking "Englishman in French clothing", though, that he'll love the first round being on St George's Day.
Perhaps the biggest issue of the election once the primaries are over will be the EU. If Le Pen embraces Frexit, rather than just saying she'll hold a referendum, she's in with a strong chance.
One sub-indicator here is whether Nigel Farage will back her. OK I've just lampooned the "how it looks from England" attitude, but I believe his backing could play well among the French electorate.
Most of the Le Pen supporters I know, and I know quite a few, are massively more concerned about Muslim immigration and lack of integration into French culture than they are about the EU.
Also, isn't FN policy to have a referendum on French membership of the Euro, rather than the EU?
I think there is an element of national pride, a political project where France leads, when considering the EU.
I think that Frexit would be enormously more complicated than Brexit, and neither Eu-immigration nor budgetary contributions would carry the same weight.
Just who does this man think he is? Jumped up little prick.
He's the adult in the room, trying to wrest the shotgun from the grip of the lunatic who's desperate to shoot herself in the foot.
An entirely subjective opinion (and based on zero positive career achievements either past or present), but also utterly irrelevant. Political interference of this type, whether or not you feel it's warranted, is entirely outside the limits of his role.
The march to the right continues - must have implications through Europe. Italy and Austria next week could just see the euro fall to parity as the dollar and pound continue their steady rise and if continuing into 2017 should reduce inflationary pressure and cause problems for the project fear forecasts of the OBR and IFS
Ironic report in today's Sunday Times that Tata are to invest 100 million into UK steel including saving Port Talbot and thousands of jobs. Tata have moved into profit following the pounds depreciation. Wales took the right decision to leave the EU and save these vital jobs
He was very entertaining and deserved to go this far but it is fair that the finals are for genuine dancers
This is the best time for him to go out - rehabilitation complete before he started kicking out actual talented dancers. If he had won there would be a backlash and he'd have to defend himself constantly.
This guy is something else entirely. The whole gracious 'unifier' theme has rapidly fallen away. Also, so much for him becoming presidential now he no longer has to campaign. The Trump we saw was the true Trump.
Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally
Comments
There are a number of indications that Fillon will be declared the winner; for example several Juppéists have left the headquarters of Juppé's campaign
How much did Fillon get in Normandy in the first round ?
My target here was £300. I would of course like to be in a position to risk less to achieve that, but 3/8 is an acceptable price (if Fillon wins).
https://twitter.com/BertrandLouveau/status/802951260018278400
https://twitter.com/BertrandLouveau/status/802951458626961408
https://twitter.com/BertrandLouveau/status/802952152599719940
https://twitter.com/BertrandLouveau/status/802950813773656065
https://twitter.com/BertrandLouveau/status/802949788605902848
https://twitter.com/BertrandLouveau/status/802949559613845504
Are these small results being collated somewhere?
https://twitter.com/BeaufilsBen/status/799473078300348416
Perhaps the biggest issue of the election once the primaries are over will be the EU. If Le Pen embraces Frexit, rather than just saying she'll hold a referendum, she's in with a strong chance.
One sub-indicator here is whether Nigel Farage will back her. OK I've just lampooned the "how it looks from England" attitude, but I believe his backing could play well among the French electorate.
The Soviets gained more from the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Krushchev was concerned about the Jupiter missiles being based in Turkey, so wanted parity. His sabre-rattling was dangerous because he underestimated Castro's lunacy. They realised then how close to war they were coming.
However, he gained the withdrawal of the Jupiter missiles, albeit at the cost of discovering how unstable Castro could be. They may have lost the PR battle, but then no one trusted Pravda anyway, so he had little to lose.
Remember the French media know a lot more than they are allowed to say. My French is not good enough to pick up on the mood, though...
Just from the above it's Fillon 81% , Juppe 19%.
https://twitter.com/MarionLory1/status/802956201818460160
http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/primaires-droite/2016/11/27/35004-20161127LIVWWW00159-resultats-primaire-droite-fillon-juppe-live-reactions-second-tour.php
In French obv
Also, isn't FN policy to have a referendum on French membership of the Euro, rather than the EU?
http://www.tdg.ch/
https://resultats.primaire2016.org/index.html#/total
Needs just 40% elsewhere
https://resultats.primaire2016.org/index.html#/total
Micro-summarising the summary, I get:
"Many people whatever their income level or left-right preferences deeply distrust the system and its administrators. The Labour party has most to lose or gain."
England's Billy Vunipola is likely to miss the Six Nations with a knee injury which will keep him out of action for at least three months.
http://hurryupharry.org/2016/11/27/who-gave-us-post-truth-conspiracy-culture-and-the-alt-right/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUjLmw4bgq0
I doubt that Farage will wait until the results of the first round before he endorses Le Pen. Kushner, Breitbart and the White House will tell him do it much sooner.
Cannot believe any sensible punter ever backed Juppé
Alain Juppe concedes defeat in French Republican primary race as Francois Fillon wins by wide margin
Anyone know the figures?
FF 67.3% AJ 32.7%
'Holocaust-themed ice skating routine by Putin aide's wife sparks outrage'
http://tinyurl.com/j7whkkk
Shame he needs about 150% of the remaining vote.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664
Donald J. TrumpVerified account
@realDonaldTrump
In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally