This guy is something else entirely. The whole gracious 'unifier' theme has rapidly fallen away. Also, so much for him becoming presidential now he no longer has to campaign. The Trump we saw was the true Trump.
Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally
I saw estimates of up to 3m illegal votes based on a study done for the 2012 election assuming similar numbers and that they all broke for Clinton it could actually be the case.
This guy is something else entirely. The whole gracious 'unifier' theme has rapidly fallen away. Also, so much for him becoming presidential now he no longer has to campaign. The Trump we saw was the true Trump.
Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally
yes, i'm sure many middle class college educated people voted for him thinking he will pivot once elected......
I know it's a state issue, but given the control the GOP have of most states, that tweet from Trump is a harbinger of voter restrictions that would make Jim Crow blush isn't it?
I know it's a state issue, but given the control the GOP have of most states, that tweet from Trump is a harbinger of voter restrictions that would make Jim Crow blush isn't it?
Attention turning to the Socialist Primary now - Hollande should be announcing soon whether he will stand or not. I think he will. I just don't see a first term President walking away from a chance to win, however miniscule. If he walks away it's not like he gains dignity - he will just be stepping down as the most unpopular Pres ever. He'll most likely lose the primary, but he's got to roll the dice at least.
Your bomb shelter of self satisfaction at seeing your political rivals defeated, is not deep enough to insulate you from the awfulness of the reality that this man will be President
Attention turning to the Socialist Primary now - Hollande should be announcing soon whether he will stand or not. I think he will. I just don't see a first term President walking away from a chance to win, however miniscule. If he walks away it's not like he gains dignity - he will just be stepping down as the most unpopular Pres ever. He'll most likely lose the primary, but he's got to roll the dice at least.
I can't see it. He was clinging to the hope that his big enemy Sarkozy would make it through but after his defeat there's nothing left to play for. That Valls has already come out against him has to signal that it's all over.
I saw estimates of up to 3m illegal votes based on a study done for the 2012 election assuming similar numbers and that they all broke for Clinton it could actually be the case.
I know it's a state issue, but given the control the GOP have of most states, that tweet from Trump is a harbinger of voter restrictions that would make Jim Crow blush isn't it?
The SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act in holder vs Shelby County as racism was over is going to go down as an all time top 10 horrible decison
So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).
What does this mean for the national picture?
Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.
The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).
That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.
ate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 40m40 minutes ago Washington, DC
Hard to argue against an audit/recount if the president-elect asserts, without any evidence, that were millions of illegal votes 0 replies . 2,720 retweets 2,963 likes
Attention turning to the Socialist Primary now - Hollande should be announcing soon whether he will stand or not. I think he will. I just don't see a first term President walking away from a chance to win, however miniscule. If he walks away it's not like he gains dignity - he will just be stepping down as the most unpopular Pres ever. He'll most likely lose the primary, but he's got to roll the dice at least.
I can't see it. He was clinging to the hope that his big enemy Sarkozy would make it through but after his defeat there's nothing left to play for. That Valls has already come out against him has to signal that it's all over.
If Valls looked any more likely to do well nationally, I might agree. But Hollande might win the primary, and lose the presidency, which he would do even if he was 50% more popular.
So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).
What does this mean for the national picture?
Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.
The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).
That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.
So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).
What does this mean for the national picture?
Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.
The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).
That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.
Macron has a chance.
He's got a chance to turn the tables, but that's what he needs to do. He needs to take himself to 18%, and beat Fillon to 17%.
O/T Putin's published an article in La Stampa in which he says NATO is outdated, America is not a banana republic whose election could be influenced from outside, the UN is the most legitimate international body and that Russia does not aspire to global dominance or expansion.
O/T Putin's published an article in La Stampa in which he says NATO is outdated, America is not a banana republic whose election could be influenced from outside, the UN is the most legitimate international body and that Russia does not aspire to global dominance or expansion.
So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).
What does this mean for the national picture?
Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.
The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).
That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.
Macron has a chance.
He's got a chance to turn the tables, but that's what he needs to do. He needs to take himself to 18%, and beat Fillon to 17%.
His best route to achieve that is if would-be Fillon voters can be persuaded to vote Le Pen in the first round as a protest on the basis that she won't win the run off and President Fillon is inevitable.
Your bomb shelter of self satisfaction at seeing your political rivals defeated, is not deep enough to insulate you from the awfulness of the reality that this man will be President
In my case it's actually a deckchair of self satisfaction atop a veranda of gloating, to be fair.
Trump is already making money from being president elect. The Secret Service have had to rent out two floors of Trump Towers. That is done at commercial rates and it goes staight feom the public's purse to Trump's company.
I wonder whether that will stop at the inauguration. If not, perhaps part of the White House could be let out to reimburse the US people!
Meanwhile, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of Debout La France, who is currently scoring around 4% in opinion polls, is now available at Betfair.
So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).
What does this mean for the national picture?
Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.
The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).
That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.
Macron has a chance.
He's got a chance to turn the tables, but that's what he needs to do. He needs to take himself to 18%, and beat Fillon to 17%.
His best route to achieve that is if would-be Fillon voters can be persuaded to vote Le Pen in the first round as a protest on the basis that she won't win the run off and President Fillon is inevitable.
Where is Fillon going with his policy of stopping gay people from adopting? Is he hopig to attract some older Le Pen voters? Would think that would hurt him in the general even if it helped him with the base.
Trump is already making money from being president elect. The Secret Service have had to rent out two floors of Trump Towers. That is done at commercial rates and it goes staight feom the public's purse to Trump's company.
I wonder whether that will stop at the inauguration. If not, perhaps part of the White House could be let out to reimburse the US people!
Interesting idea. Apparently it needs major renovations so maybe Trump could turn it into a museum for the duration of his presidency and live full time at home.
So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).
What does this mean for the national picture?
Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.
The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).
That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.
Macron has a chance.
He's got a chance to turn the tables, but that's what he needs to do. He needs to take himself to 18%, and beat Fillon to 17%.
His best route to achieve that is if would-be Fillon voters can be persuaded to vote Le Pen in the first round as a protest on the basis that she won't win the run off and President Fillon is inevitable.
Where is Fillon going with his policy of stopping gay people from adopting? Is he hopig to attract some older Le Pen voters? Would think that would hurt him in the general even if it helped him with the base.
It's true to the Catholic right in France, of which he is a member. The "old France" under threat, etc. But if it were not for his personal beliefs, I do not think he would have taken it on as a policy. I think he wants a policy that takes France a step in the "right" direction, without really alienating opponents.
So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).
What does this mean for the national picture?
Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.
The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).
That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.
Macron has a chance.
He's got a chance to turn the tables, but that's what he needs to do. He needs to take himself to 18%, and beat Fillon to 17%.
His best route to achieve that is if would-be Fillon voters can be persuaded to vote Le Pen in the first round as a protest on the basis that she won't win the run off and President Fillon is inevitable.
Where is Fillon going with his policy of stopping gay people from adopting? Is he hopig to attract some older Le Pen voters? Would think that would hurt him in the general even if it helped him with the base.
He's always voted against gay rights measures even going back to the decriminalisation/equalisation of the age of consent in the early 80s. The adoption issue is complex as in France there are two different legal forms of adoption - it's the form which changes the legal parentage which Fillon doesn't think should be available if the adopting couple are of the same sex. In practice this would make it very difficult to adopt apart from within their own families. There's a big question mark about whether it's even constitutional so other than it being a personal conviction, it seems like nothing more than a dog whistle for the traditionalist Catholic vote.
In political terms I do think it's a mistake in positioning which Le Pen will be able to exploit if she's facing him in the run off, and will motivate younger votes to turn out for candidate best placed to stop Fillon getting into the final round.
I saw estimates of up to 3m illegal votes based on a study done for the 2012 election assuming similar numbers and that they all broke for Clinton it could actually be the case.
Except all the detected cases of voter fraud have been Republicans.
Now you may think you have evidence showing otherwise but we live in a post fact world now
Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.
Fillon is not necessarily the best person to beat Le Pen in a 2nd round run off. He is more socially conservative than her. He also believes in the free market and reducing the power of the state, whereas Le Pen advocates more state control/regulation and is frankly more of a socialist. He may be suspect as being more sympathetic to Britain, given his wife's background. Non-PC left-leaning French folk won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round.
Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.
Fillon is not necessarily the best person to beat Le Pen in a 2nd round run off. He is more socially conservative than her. He also believes in the free market and reducing the power of the state, whereas Le Pen advocates more state control/regulation and is frankly more of a socialist. He may be suspect as being more sympathetic to Britain, given his wife's background. Non-PC left-leaning French folk won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round.
The polls seem to have Le Pen on about 35% against both of them, although there haven't been many surveys and the ones there have been are a bit out of date.
Fillon is not necessarily the best person to beat Le Pen in a 2nd round run off. He is more socially conservative than her. He also believes in the free market and reducing the power of the state, whereas Le Pen advocates more state control/regulation and is frankly more of a socialist. He may be suspect as being more sympathetic to Britain, given his wife's background. Non-PC left-leaning French folk won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round.
He may well be more sympathetic to the UK but Le Pen admires Brexit and is out to destroy the EU
Fillon is not necessarily the best person to beat Le Pen in a 2nd round run off. He is more socially conservative than her. He also believes in the free market and reducing the power of the state, whereas Le Pen advocates more state control/regulation and is frankly more of a socialist. He may be suspect as being more sympathetic to Britain, given his wife's background. Non-PC left-leaning French folk won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round.
He may well be more sympathetic to the UK but Le Pen admires Brexit and is out to destroy the EU
And destroying the EU helps us get a good deal how?
Fillon is not necessarily the best person to beat Le Pen in a 2nd round run off. He is more socially conservative than her. He also believes in the free market and reducing the power of the state, whereas Le Pen advocates more state control/regulation and is frankly more of a socialist. He may be suspect as being more sympathetic to Britain, given his wife's background. Non-PC left-leaning French folk won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round.
The polls seem to have Le Pen on about 35% against both of them, although there haven't been many surveys and the ones there have been are a bit out of date.
You never sweep up 100% of the vote, but the fact remains that in actual regional elections, the FN candidate never managed to capitalise on a 40%+ first round share, and in many cases went backwards. FIllon is no more abhorrent to the right than Chirac in 2002, although his pros and cons are different.
Fillon is not necessarily the best person to beat Le Pen in a 2nd round run off. He is more socially conservative than her. He also believes in the free market and reducing the power of the state, whereas Le Pen advocates more state control/regulation and is frankly more of a socialist. He may be suspect as being more sympathetic to Britain, given his wife's background. Non-PC left-leaning French folk won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round.
He may well be more sympathetic to the UK but Le Pen admires Brexit and is out to destroy the EU
And destroying the EU helps us get a good deal how?
Exactly - that is my point - Fillon will be better for UK and a deal
Fillon 26% Le Pen 24% Macron 14% Mélenchon 13% Hollande 9% Bayrou 6% Dupont-Aignan 3% Jadot 3%
Second round:
Fillon 67% Le Pen 33%
Sample: 6093 people.
Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.
Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.
May Pole dance?
It will be interesting as she picks off each Country at head of state level.
Even the Telegraph is at it tonight. Just because he wants to trim the public sector by half a million does not make Fillon Thatcher. Certainly, a commitment to longer hours and a longer wait for the state pension are both rather Anglo-Saxon, but unlike Mrs T he is no proposing a change in the role of the state: but rather like Cameron he wants the state to do the same with less.
Fillon 26% Le Pen 24% Macron 14% Mélenchon 13% Hollande 9% Bayrou 6% Dupont-Aignan 3% Jadot 3%
Second round:
Fillon 67% Le Pen 33%
Sample: 6093 people.
Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.
That's a pretty monstrous poll for Fillon, the big big participation in Led Republicans primary makes me think it isn't so far off the mark either. If Fillon pushes right, he might be able to monster Le Pen - maybe a possibility of a Fillon/Macron final contest ?
Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.
May Pole dance?
It will be interesting as she picks off each Country at head of state level.
Fillon 26% Le Pen 24% Macron 14% Mélenchon 13% Hollande 9% Bayrou 6% Dupont-Aignan 3% Jadot 3%
Second round:
Fillon 67% Le Pen 33%
Sample: 6093 people.
Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.
Two sentences on Dupont is too many.
I think Fillon is unlikely to beat Le Pen or rather her share is a little too low, I think it could be 26/30 in the first round. She has however shown remarkable consistency, never venturing much beyond 27-30% in three years.
Fillon 26% Le Pen 24% Macron 14% Mélenchon 13% Hollande 9% Bayrou 6% Dupont-Aignan 3% Jadot 3%
Second round:
Fillon 67% Le Pen 33%
Sample: 6093 people.
Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.
That's a pretty monstrous poll for Fillon, the big big participation in Led Republicans primary makes me think it isn't so far off the mark either. If Fillon pushes right, he might be able to monster Le Pen - maybe a possibility of a Fillon/Macron final contest ?
He'd prefer to face Le Pen, I don't see him heading off right. He's probably set a marker seeing off Sarkozy and will firm up support in the centre to get him into the second round.
Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.
May Pole dance?
It will be interesting as she picks off each Country at head of state level.
Or May poledancing. ?
The *only* way for Britain to beat the EU blob is to win over Member States on their own terms, and to pry them away from the EU as an insitution. You can see the war going on between the (1) EU, (2) France and Germany, and (3) the other member states, Britain must get the right other party if it wants the right deal.
Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.
May Pole dance?
It will be interesting as she picks off each Country at head of state level.
Her 'wait and see' approach may reel in some unlikely dividends.
I wonder how much of an EU there will be to negotiate with in 2019.
Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.
May Pole dance?
It will be interesting as she picks off each Country at head of state level.
Or May poledancing. ?
The *only* way for Britain to beat the EU blob is to win over Member States on their own terms, and to pry them away from the EU as an insitution. You can see the war going on between the (1) EU, (2) France and Germany, and (3) the other member states, Britain must get the right other party if it wants the right deal.
Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.
May Pole dance?
It will be interesting as she picks off each Country at head of state level.
Her 'wait and see' approach may reel in some unlikely dividends.
I wonder how much of an EU there will be to negotiate with in 2019.
I believe Theresa May will work Country by Country and a deal will be achieved but for heavens sake lets get on with and serve A50
Fillon 26% Le Pen 24% Macron 14% Mélenchon 13% Hollande 9% Bayrou 6% Dupont-Aignan 3% Jadot 3%
Second round:
Fillon 67% Le Pen 33%
Sample: 6093 people.
Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.
That's a pretty monstrous poll for Fillon, the big big participation in Led Republicans primary makes me think it isn't so far off the mark either. If Fillon pushes right, he might be able to monster Le Pen - maybe a possibility of a Fillon/Macron final contest ?
That's actually not inconceivable: I think that Le Pen and Fillon are fishing in the same broad area. Both are conservative (with a small 'c'), both are particularly concerned with the impact of Islamic immigration on France. And if you look at the Fillon vs Juppe debate, that was where he monstered her.
The question, to me, is whether he is able to take five points or so off of her, ending up in the high 20s, against her in the mid 20s. The question then is whether there would be tactical voting on the left. I cannot see Bayrou, Hollande/Valls or Macron voters going to Melanchon to avoid Le Pen vs Fillon. I could see them going to Macron.
Jokes & raised eyebrows aside, this allegation is scary in terms of what he will want Jeff Sessions & the DOJ to do/investigate/restrict. 0 replies . 89 retweets 119 likes
Theresa May to meet her Polish counterpart in a demonstration of friendship, with the Poles telling the EU a deal over security and trade is essential just as the UK agree to send troops to the Poles eastern front. There is no way that the Poles or the Baltic Countries will play hard ball over UK negotiations, not least as they do not want to be exposed to Russia with only a yet to be formed tin pot EU army.
May Pole dance?
It will be interesting as she picks off each Country at head of state level.
Or May poledancing. ?
The *only* way for Britain to beat the EU blob is to win over Member States on their own terms, and to pry them away from the EU as an insitution. You can see the war going on between the (1) EU, (2) France and Germany, and (3) the other member states, Britain must get the right other party if it wants the right deal.
You missed the humour i intended.
Do you know what a pole dancer does ?
Jokes are lost when you have to explain them
I couldn't be bothered to quote the previous reply instead of yours.
Fillon is not necessarily the best person to beat Le Pen in a 2nd round run off. He is more socially conservative than her. He also believes in the free market and reducing the power of the state, whereas Le Pen advocates more state control/regulation and is frankly more of a socialist. He may be suspect as being more sympathetic to Britain, given his wife's background. Non-PC left-leaning French folk won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round.
He may well be more sympathetic to the UK but Le Pen admires Brexit and is out to destroy the EU
And destroying the EU helps us get a good deal how?
Exactly - that is my point - Fillon will be better for UK and a deal
I think Fillon would be excellent for France and for the UK. I think he would push hard against further EU integration, and against migrants from the failed states of North Africa. I think he would begin the difficult task of making France competitive again. I think he would be keen for the UK and France to have the best working relationship possible.
Fillon 26% Le Pen 24% Macron 14% Mélenchon 13% Hollande 9% Bayrou 6% Dupont-Aignan 3% Jadot 3%
Second round:
Fillon 67% Le Pen 33%
Sample: 6093 people.
Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.
That's a pretty monstrous poll for Fillon, the big big participation in Led Republicans primary makes me think it isn't so far off the mark either. If Fillon pushes right, he might be able to monster Le Pen - maybe a possibility of a Fillon/Macron final contest ?
That's actually not inconceivable: I think that Le Pen and Fillon are fishing in the same broad area. Both are conservative (with a small 'c'), both are particularly concerned with the impact of Islamic immigration on France. And if you look at the Fillon vs Juppe debate, that was where he monstered her.
The question, to me, is whether he is able to take five points or so off of her, ending up in the high 20s, against her in the mid 20s. The question then is whether there would be tactical voting on the left. I cannot see Bayrou, Hollande/Valls or Macron voters going to Melanchon to avoid Le Pen vs Fillon. I could see them going to Macron.
I see if now, RCS's "100 Ways Macron Could Win This Election" - I think we're on number four at the moment...
Fillon 26% Le Pen 24% Macron 14% Mélenchon 13% Hollande 9% Bayrou 6% Dupont-Aignan 3% Jadot 3%
Second round:
Fillon 67% Le Pen 33%
Sample: 6093 people.
Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.
Two sentences on Dupont is too many.
I think Fillon is unlikely to beat Le Pen or rather her share is a little too low, I think it could be 26/30 in the first round. She has however shown remarkable consistency, never venturing much beyond 27-30% in three years.
Not surprised Fillon is doing well in this poll, he has just had the benefit of being involved in 4 televised debates in the past month or so and has had wall to wall media coverage during the Primary contest. The question is, will he hang on to the benefit gained from the recent media coverage.
With about about 6 months to go before the actual election, I would expect his share of the first round vote drop somewhat.
Fillon is not necessarily the best person to beat Le Pen in a 2nd round run off. He is more socially conservative than her. He also believes in the free market and reducing the power of the state, whereas Le Pen advocates more state control/regulation and is frankly more of a socialist. He may be suspect as being more sympathetic to Britain, given his wife's background. Non-PC left-leaning French folk won't be attracted to Fillon and votes of eliminated left-wing candidates may not transfer to him in the 2nd round.
He may well be more sympathetic to the UK but Le Pen admires Brexit and is out to destroy the EU
And destroying the EU helps us get a good deal how?
Exactly - that is my point - Fillon will be better for UK and a deal
I think Fillon would be excellent for France and for the UK. I think he would push hard against further EU integration, and against migrants from the failed states of North Africa. I think he would begin the difficult task of making France competitive again. I think he would be keen for the UK and France to have the best working relationship possible.
So there we have it. In the end, there was no "return" of left-wing voters to Juppé, some having supposed that they may have lent their vote to Fillon to send Sarkozy home in the first round. Indeed, with Sarkozy's backing Fillon widened his advantage over Juppé (67% to 33% with precious little left to count).
What does this mean for the national picture?
Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.
The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).
That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.
Macron has a chance.
He's got a chance to turn the tables, but that's what he needs to do. He needs to take himself to 18%, and beat Fillon to 17%.
His best route to achieve that is if would-be Fillon voters can be persuaded to vote Le Pen in the first round as a protest on the basis that she won't win the run off and President Fillon is inevitable.
Where is Fillon going with his policy of stopping gay people from adopting? Is he hopig to attract some older Le Pen voters? Would think that would hurt him in the general even if it helped him with the base.
It's true to the Catholic right in France, of which he is a member. The "old France" under threat, etc. But if it were not for his personal beliefs, I do not think he would have taken it on as a policy. I think he wants a policy that takes France a step in the "right" direction, without really alienating opponents.
Oh I didn't know there was a catholic right in France. Are they sizeable?
Fillon 26% Le Pen 24% Macron 14% Mélenchon 13% Hollande 9% Bayrou 6% Dupont-Aignan 3% Jadot 3%
Second round:
Fillon 67% Le Pen 33%
Sample: 6093 people.
Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.
That's a pretty monstrous poll for Fillon, the big big participation in Led Republicans primary makes me think it isn't so far off the mark either. If Fillon pushes right, he might be able to monster Le Pen - maybe a possibility of a Fillon/Macron final contest ?
That's actually not inconceivable: I think that Le Pen and Fillon are fishing in the same broad area. Both are conservative (with a small 'c'), both are particularly concerned with the impact of Islamic immigration on France. And if you look at the Fillon vs Juppe debate, that was where he monstered her.
The question, to me, is whether he is able to take five points or so off of her, ending up in the high 20s, against her in the mid 20s. The question then is whether there would be tactical voting on the left. I cannot see Bayrou, Hollande/Valls or Macron voters going to Melanchon to avoid Le Pen vs Fillon. I could see them going to Macron.
One risk for Fillon is that he has a record as PM to defend. I think Sarkozy would have been Le Pen's preferred opponent but she will be able to use a lot of the same tactics against Fillon. If they're fishing in the same pond and she is seen to get the better of him then it will be time to bet on her to go all the way.
If Fillon crashes and burns before round one then I think it will be Le Pen v Macron or a Socialist candidate who is not yet on people's radars. There were rumours of another run by Ségolène Royal a few weeks ago...
Fillon 26% Le Pen 24% Macron 14% Mélenchon 13% Hollande 9% Bayrou 6% Dupont-Aignan 3% Jadot 3%
Second round:
Fillon 67% Le Pen 33%
Sample: 6093 people.
Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.
That's a pretty monstrous poll for Fillon, the big big participation in Led Republicans primary makes me think it isn't so far off the mark either. If Fillon pushes right, he might be able to monster Le Pen - maybe a possibility of a Fillon/Macron final contest ?
That's actually not inconceivable: I think that Le Pen and Fillon are fishing in the same broad area. Both are conservative (with a small 'c'), both are particularly concerned with the impact of Islamic immigration on France. And if you look at the Fillon vs Juppe debate, that was where he monstered her.
The question, to me, is whether he is able to take five points or so off of her, ending up in the high 20s, against her in the mid 20s. The question then is whether there would be tactical voting on the left. I cannot see Bayrou, Hollande/Valls or Macron voters going to Melanchon to avoid Le Pen vs Fillon. I could see them going to Macron.
I see if now, RCS's "100 Ways Macron Could Win This Election" - I think we're on number four at the moment...
Granted, I might be long and wrong
My view, fwiw, is that the French Left and Centre will end up giving someone 20% of the vote. It might be the new Socialist candidate, it might be Macron, it might even be Bayrou. But I think it is unlikely we'll end up with four candidates on the Centre and Left all polling between 9 and 15%.
I hardly know anything about French politics but am I the only person wondering:
Why don't the Left put up a united candidate? If they did they would surely have an excellent chance of making the 2nd Round and at least a reasonable shot at winning the Presidency.
I hardly know anything about French politics but am I the only person wondering:
Why don't the Left put up a united candidate? If they did they would surely have an excellent chance of making the 2nd Round and at least a reasonable shot at winning the Presidency.
A united candidate of the Left is practically a contradiction in terms.
I hardly know anything about French politics but am I the only person wondering:
Why don't the Left put up a united candidate? If they did they would surely have an excellent chance of making the 2nd Round and at least a reasonable shot at winning the Presidency.
A united candidate of the Left is practically a contradiction in terms.
Mélenchon (12%) and Hollande (9%) agree on about as much as Fillon and Le Pen.
Mélenchon wants a metaphorical, perhaps even literal, revolution.
The other far-lefts, even if you include the Green Front, poll 5%.
O/T Putin's published an article in La Stampa in which he says NATO is outdated, America is not a banana republic whose election could be influenced from outside, the UN is the most legitimate international body and that Russia does not aspire to global dominance or expansion.
I hardly know anything about French politics but am I the only person wondering:
Why don't the Left put up a united candidate? If they did they would surely have an excellent chance of making the 2nd Round and at least a reasonable shot at winning the Presidency.
Because if there's one thing the left does better than anyone, it's division
O/T Putin's published an article in La Stampa in which he says NATO is outdated, America is not a banana republic whose election could be influenced from outside, the UN is the most legitimate international body and that Russia does not aspire to global dominance or expansion.
Fillon 26% Le Pen 24% Macron 14% Mélenchon 13% Hollande 9% Bayrou 6% Dupont-Aignan 3% Jadot 3%
Second round:
Fillon 67% Le Pen 33%
Sample: 6093 people.
Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got? His presentation is way behind Trump's, and he doesn't come across as half as obnoxious or polarising. I'll be watching how he gets reported on Breitbart.
That's a pretty monstrous poll for Fillon, the big big participation in Led Republicans primary makes me think it isn't so far off the mark either. If Fillon pushes right, he might be able to monster Le Pen - maybe a possibility of a Fillon/Macron final contest ?
[...]
The question, to me, is whether he is able to take five points or so off of her, ending up in the high 20s, against her in the mid 20s. The question then is whether there would be tactical voting on the left. I cannot see Bayrou, Hollande/Valls or Macron voters going to Melanchon to avoid Le Pen vs Fillon. I could see them going to Macron.
I see if now, RCS's "100 Ways Macron Could Win This Election" - I think we're on number four at the moment...
Granted, I might be long and wrong
My view, fwiw, is that the French Left and Centre will end up giving someone 20% of the vote. It might be the new Socialist candidate, it might be Macron, it might even be Bayrou. But I think it is unlikely we'll end up with four candidates on the Centre and Left all polling between 9 and 15%.
OK, let's run this for a moment. Fillon 27%, Macron 25%, Le Pen 23%.
Then the tightest squeeze on the remainder: Mélenchon 9%, Hollande 6%, Far Left 1%, Far Right 2%, Greens 2% ... Bayrou 5%?
You'd need Bayrou out at a minimum.
Then you could have Mélenchon 10%, Hollande 8%, which is a little more believable.
I saw estimates of up to 3m illegal votes based on a study done for the 2012 election assuming similar numbers and that they all broke for Clinton it could actually be the case.
Can't help noticing that more and more people seem to be copying Sadiq Khan and Priti Patel's habit of not pronouncing the "g" at the end of "ing" words. A Sky News reporter was just doing it.
OK, let's run this for a moment. Fillon 27%, Macron 25%, Le Pen 23%.
Then the tightest squeeze on the remainder: Mélenchon 9%, Hollande 6%, Far Left 1%, Far Right 2%, Greens 2% ... Bayrou 5%?
You'd need Bayrou out at a minimum.
Then you could have Mélenchon 10%, Hollande 8%, which is a little more believable.
I've said all along: I think Bayrou is open to offers to sit this one out. He's 65 now. He's a long, long way from the second round, and there's another (younger, more charismatic) person in the centre ground.
He was Minister of Education before. I think if Fillon or Macron came a'calling, and offered him an important ministry, them I think he might jump. I think Macron is the more likely to forge an alliance with him (as they are similar in terms of outlook, albeit Bayrou is more of an outsider), but then again, Fillon is much more likely to win.
OK, let's run this for a moment. Fillon 27%, Macron 25%, Le Pen 23%.
Then the tightest squeeze on the remainder: Mélenchon 9%, Hollande 6%, Far Left 1%, Far Right 2%, Greens 2% ... Bayrou 5%?
You'd need Bayrou out at a minimum.
Then you could have Mélenchon 10%, Hollande 8%, which is a little more believable.
I've said all along: I think Bayrou is open to offers to sit this one out. He's 65 now. He's a long, long way from the second round, and there's another (younger, more charismatic) person in the centre ground.
He was Minister of Education before. I think if Fillon or Macron came a'calling, and offered him an important ministry, them I think he might jump. I think Macron is the more likely to forge an alliance with him (as they are similar in terms of outlook, albeit Bayrou is more of an outsider), but then again, Fillon is much more likely to win.
The problem with most of your Macron scenarios is that they're 60% of 40% of 25% of 20%.
You need -
Fillon to head off Le Pen Fillon to expose his left flank Bayrou to drop out, probably to Macron Hollande to continue to be shit Macron to perform well and in a balanced way
Then of course he has to beat Fillon in a head to head...
Is it the most ludicrous of suggestions? No.
Will it happen... probably not.
I think 20/1 on Macron is fair, maybe a smidgen of value, I have a defensive position.
I saw estimates of up to 3m illegal votes based on a study done for the 2012 election assuming similar numbers and that they all broke for Clinton it could actually be the case.
Link or stfu
"Known to cognitive neuroscientists as the Dunning-Kruger effect, the troubling mental condition explains why many people are willing to believe anything Donald Trump says, whether his statements are true or not."
OK, let's run this for a moment. Fillon 27%, Macron 25%, Le Pen 23%.
Then the tightest squeeze on the remainder: Mélenchon 9%, Hollande 6%, Far Left 1%, Far Right 2%, Greens 2% ... Bayrou 5%?
You'd need Bayrou out at a minimum.
Then you could have Mélenchon 10%, Hollande 8%, which is a little more believable.
I've said all along: I think Bayrou is open to offers to sit this one out. He's 65 now. He's a long, long way from the second round, and there's another (younger, more charismatic) person in the centre ground.
He was Minister of Education before. I think if Fillon or Macron came a'calling, and offered him an important ministry, them I think he might jump. I think Macron is the more likely to forge an alliance with him (as they are similar in terms of outlook, albeit Bayrou is more of an outsider), but then again, Fillon is much more likely to win.
The problem with most of your Macron scenarios is that they're 60% of 40% of 25% of 20%.
You need -
Fillon to head off Le Pen Fillon to expose his left flank Bayrou to drop out, probably to Macron Hollande to continue to be shit Macron to perform well and in a balanced way
Then of course he has to beat Fillon in a head to head...
Is it the most ludicrous of suggestions? No.
Will it happen... probably not.
I think 20/1 on Macron is fair, maybe a smidgen of value, I have a defensive position.
I don't think the main scenario is Macron beating Fillon in the second round; it's Macron beating Le Pen.
That's RCS' suggestion 3, we're on number four for the purpose of this thread
I would say this had a 1.2% chance of coming off, 3.8% chance of Macron beating Le Pen, laving value to be decided by a real shock in the next few months.
Comments
https://twitter.com/harrywalker1/status/802964829438738433
Michael McDonald @ElectProject 21h
Prepare for more scamming of American taxpayers as Trump charges millions of Secret Service for space at Trump Tower, space on plane flights
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/802972944532209664
That's President-Elect Trump to you.
Fillon 2 - 1 Juppé
One man one vote, as long as it is a white man.
What does this mean for the national picture?
Fillon takes over Juppé's position as strong favourite, though he lacks the support of Francois Bayrou. Whilst that is unlikely to imperil him in a run-off against Le Pen - Bayrou's centrists will take Fillon over Le Pen - it does make the first round a little complicated.
The first round in France is always fragmented. Even De Gaulle needed a second round to win a majority. With Le Pen remarkably consistent on 30% of the polls, and the far-left likely to take 15% (with Mélenchon the most charismatic candidate).
That leaves 55% between Fillon, Bayrou, the Socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) and the enterprising Macron (who will now stand). The Socialist might get 10%, Bayrou 8%. That leaves 25% for Fillon v 12% Macron. Macron will need to turn the tables.
ate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 40m40 minutes ago Washington, DC
Hard to argue against an audit/recount if the president-elect asserts, without any evidence, that were millions of illegal votes
0 replies . 2,720 retweets 2,963 likes
https://twitter.com/FT/status/802988139249864704
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/802988315817418753
I've retaken my rightful place atop the PB fantasy football league.
It was only a blip because of the fixture calendar.
http://www.lastampa.it/2016/11/27/cultura/opinioni/editoriali/il-tempo-di-fidarsi-della-russia-fronte-comune-contro-il-terrore-KxnZkA38RMHFNSiG1V1tYN/pagina.html
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/802253171636715520
#MAGA
Meanwhile, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of Debout La France, who is currently scoring around 4% in opinion polls, is now available at Betfair.
In political terms I do think it's a mistake in positioning which Le Pen will be able to exploit if she's facing him in the run off, and will motivate younger votes to turn out for candidate best placed to stop Fillon getting into the final round.
COYS
Now you may think you have evidence showing otherwise but we live in a post fact world now
Fillon 26%
Le Pen 24%
Macron 14%
Mélenchon 13%
Hollande 9%
Bayrou 6%
Dupont-Aignan 3%
Jadot 3%
Second round:
Fillon 67%
Le Pen 33%
Sample: 6093 people.
Dupont-Aignan is interviewed here. He says there are three candidates for a break with the system: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and himself. That link goes to the part where he says that Le Pen says a lot of reasonable things but she won't win in the second round because many will have voted for her in the first only to protest. He says he hopes to be the French Donald Trump...but how many skyscrapers has he got?
Even the Telegraph is at it tonight. Just because he wants to trim the public sector by half a million does not make Fillon Thatcher. Certainly, a commitment to longer hours and a longer wait for the state pension are both rather Anglo-Saxon, but unlike Mrs T he is no proposing a change in the role of the state: but rather like Cameron he wants the state to do the same with less.
I think Fillon is unlikely to beat Le Pen or rather her share is a little too low, I think it could be 26/30 in the first round. She has however shown remarkable consistency, never venturing much beyond 27-30% in three years.
I wonder how much of an EU there will be to negotiate with in 2019.
Do you know what a pole dancer does ?
Jokes are lost when you have to explain them
Many people have said The CIA won't satnd for trump and will get a false "radical islamic terrorist" or Socialist to "get rid of him".
The question, to me, is whether he is able to take five points or so off of her, ending up in the high 20s, against her in the mid 20s. The question then is whether there would be tactical voting on the left. I cannot see Bayrou, Hollande/Valls or Macron voters going to Melanchon to avoid Le Pen vs Fillon. I could see them going to Macron.
Jokes & raised eyebrows aside, this allegation is scary in terms of what he will want Jeff Sessions & the DOJ to do/investigate/restrict.
0 replies . 89 retweets 119 likes
What he would not do is hasten the end of the EU.
With about about 6 months to go before the actual election, I would expect his share of the first round vote drop somewhat.
If Fillon crashes and burns before round one then I think it will be Le Pen v Macron or a Socialist candidate who is not yet on people's radars. There were rumours of another run by Ségolène Royal a few weeks ago...
My view, fwiw, is that the French Left and Centre will end up giving someone 20% of the vote. It might be the new Socialist candidate, it might be Macron, it might even be Bayrou. But I think it is unlikely we'll end up with four candidates on the Centre and Left all polling between 9 and 15%.
Why don't the Left put up a united candidate? If they did they would surely have an excellent chance of making the 2nd Round and at least a reasonable shot at winning the Presidency.
Looks like about 20% should be enough. Turnout last time was 35m so 20% would be 7m.
In comparison - it looks like he got just under 3m votes today - 2,847k with just over 2% of districts still to report.
Mélenchon wants a metaphorical, perhaps even literal, revolution.
The other far-lefts, even if you include the Green Front, poll 5%.
Like crabs in a bucket. Same issue in 2002.
Then the tightest squeeze on the remainder: Mélenchon 9%, Hollande 6%, Far Left 1%, Far Right 2%, Greens 2% ... Bayrou 5%?
You'd need Bayrou out at a minimum.
Then you could have Mélenchon 10%, Hollande 8%, which is a little more believable.
Can't help noticing that more and more people seem to be copying Sadiq Khan and Priti Patel's habit of not pronouncing the "g" at the end of "ing" words. A Sky News reporter was just doing it.
He was Minister of Education before. I think if Fillon or Macron came a'calling, and offered him an important ministry, them I think he might jump. I think Macron is the more likely to forge an alliance with him (as they are similar in terms of outlook, albeit Bayrou is more of an outsider), but then again, Fillon is much more likely to win.
You need -
Fillon to head off Le Pen
Fillon to expose his left flank
Bayrou to drop out, probably to Macron
Hollande to continue to be shit
Macron to perform well and in a balanced way
Then of course he has to beat Fillon in a head to head...
Is it the most ludicrous of suggestions? No.
Will it happen... probably not.
I think 20/1 on Macron is fair, maybe a smidgen of value, I have a defensive position.
http://www.inquisitr.com/3605574/the-twisted-psychology-of-trump-supporters/
I would say this had a 1.2% chance of coming off, 3.8% chance of Macron beating Le Pen, laving value to be decided by a real shock in the next few months.