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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Populism Trumps the Status Quo
The political earthquake that the Republican Party’s president-elect has sparked is bigger than the United States of America, and bigger, even, than the ego of “braggadocios” Donald Trump. With tremors still being felt right around the globe, the shock outcome has taken virtually everyone by surprise and left not just the Democratic Party but also donkeys in the media looking rather jolted, dazed, and confused. Meanwhile, the call goes out for relevant conjecture on the part of those of us with experience of life both inside and outside the all important ‘enlightened’ metropolitan bubble at the centre of this, the mother of all plot twists.
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first todaY?
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Hamilton? (i.e. by all rights, morally first!)
And to keep this off-topic: forget turducken for Christmas, the latest thing is c'thurkey.
http://www.avclub.com/article/never-forget-cthurkey-octopus-stuffed-turkey-hell-246399
(Warning: once seen cannot be unseen)0 -
FPT: F1: I'll discuss this properly when I do the season review, but of my spread betting suggestions, three were very close (within 4 points) and one was just wrong (I overestimated Bottas/Williams). Net result is a small loss. Excepting that suggestion, it would've been a 1point success.
Undecided if I'll spread bet next year (my bets have been poor in the latter half and rather eroded my account) but I will offer suggestions at least, if I remember.
On-topic: interesting piece, Mr. Glassford.
How we leave the EU (if we do) and how our new relationship works with the institution will have a substantial bearing on how this sort of thing progresses.
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F1: my post-race ramble is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/abu-dhabi-post-race-analysis-2016.html
The season review will probably be up in a few days/weeks.0 -
More threads like this please!
My quick response is that 'Blue Labour' has to be part of Labour's response to the new political order. Debating gender-neutral bathrooms is not what working class voters want to hear.0 -
Julian, interesting to see that you do mindfulness-centred coaching.
Surely, if we are in a mindful state, and have the growth, as opposed to fixed, mindset, then none of this change is anxiety-causing or even threatening. It is merely an opportunity.
Take the jargon away, and I think I mostly agree with what you say. But bringing it back down to the individual level, is it all not because our Western culture now measures us by achievements, not process. Consumerism is merely the tangible and visible expression of our success measured by outcomes. Community and family success are, in contrast, about the now undervalued process. How do politicians revived the mindful, growth mindset more broadly in the population?0 -
UKIP is a minority party and Nigel Farage a minority taste in the UK. Trump is now 2.3 million votes behind Clinton. The first thing the centre must do is take a deep breath. The second thing it must do is hold the right to account. It's one thing being a Twitter-based insurgency, it's quite another to govern. As May takes the Tories into populist right-wing territory in order to hold onto her job, I can't help thinking it's all going to end in tears. That Corbyn firewall only lasts for as long as Corbyn is there. If (when) he goes it becomes Wisconsin.0
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JosiasJessop said:
Hamilton? (i.e. by all rights, morally first!)
And to keep this off-topic: forget turducken for Christmas, the latest thing is c'thurkey.
http://www.avclub.com/article/never-forget-cthurkey-octopus-stuffed-turkey-hell-246399
(Warning: once seen cannot be unseen)
The turkey teddybear is by far the most horrendous0 -
The problem is it's unlikely he will go this side of a general election now, unless he dies (which is of course possible given his age).SouthamObserver said:UKIP is a minority party and Nigel Farage a minority taste in the UK. Trump is now 2.3 million votes behind Clinton. The first thing the centre must do is take a deep breath. The second thing it must do is hold the right to account. It's one thing being a Twitter-based insurgency, it's quite another to govern. As May takes the Tories into populist right-wing territory in order to hold onto her job, I can't help thinking it's all going to end in tears. That Corbyn firewall only lasts for as long as Corbyn is there. If (when) he goes it becomes Wisconsin.
Although Trump's win should remind us that nothing is impossible in politics, in our system where Labour are offering essentially the stale clichés of 1960s radical socialism while people actually want jobs and financial security, Corbyn is only likely to lead them backwards.0 -
This one ?MTimT said:
The turkey teddybear is by far the most horrendousJosiasJessop said:Hamilton? (i.e. by all rights, morally first!)
And to keep this off-topic: forget turducken for Christmas, the latest thing is c'thurkey.
http://www.avclub.com/article/never-forget-cthurkey-octopus-stuffed-turkey-hell-246399
(Warning: once seen cannot be unseen)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2528439/Is-horrific-Christmas-meal-Russian-artist-stitches-teddy-bear-clumps-meat-chicken-skin.html
Urgh.0 -
Yep, that one.JosiasJessop said:
This one ?MTimT said:
The turkey teddybear is by far the most horrendousJosiasJessop said:Hamilton? (i.e. by all rights, morally first!)
And to keep this off-topic: forget turducken for Christmas, the latest thing is c'thurkey.
http://www.avclub.com/article/never-forget-cthurkey-octopus-stuffed-turkey-hell-246399
(Warning: once seen cannot be unseen)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2528439/Is-horrific-Christmas-meal-Russian-artist-stitches-teddy-bear-clumps-meat-chicken-skin.html
Urgh.0 -
Yep, a week or so ago I asked how the left went from FDR's four freedoms as a purpose to banning newspapers from campus, but debating gender-neutral bathrooms is on a par. The stuff that seems to matter most to many left-wing activists and politicians is completely divorced from the concerns most people have about their lives.SandyRentool said:More threads like this please!
My quick response is that 'Blue Labour' has to be part of Labour's response to the new political order. Debating gender-neutral bathrooms is not what working class voters want to hear.
Admittedly the right isn't much better, but there's a grudging respect from the public that at least the right's focus on making money might serve some greater purpose down the track.0 -
While the cthurkyey is a monstrosity, that is a great site. For example this article on the 1876 US Presidential election:JosiasJessop said:Hamilton? (i.e. by all rights, morally first!)
And to keep this off-topic: forget turducken for Christmas, the latest thing is c'thurkey.
http://www.avclub.com/article/never-forget-cthurkey-octopus-stuffed-turkey-hell-246399
(Warning: once seen cannot be unseen)
http://www.avclub.com/article/1876-saw-election-even-more-crazed-and-contentious-2462290 -
Mr. glw, it's the difference between seeing politicians as servants of people rather than their masters, and between persuasion and winning arguments as opposed to imposing opinions and banning (either legally or by social stigma) 'unacceptable' views.
Best summed up by playing the race card over immigration concerns. No effort to understand people's concerns about culture, wages or social cohesion, just condemnation of someone for holding the wrong view*.
And now those on the receiving end are returning the favour. That may well be why so many people were not convinced by almost the whole political establishment siding with Remain.
It'd be interesting to know how things would've gone had Cameron gotten a deal worth the name.
*As an aside, this also plays into the Government's perverted desire to ban all 'non-conventional' adult material from the intent.0 -
Yes! a million times yes. I actually think there is a huge yearning for Corbyn type economics not the old Labour re-hash of the 1970's but rather a clamping down on the 'gig' economy by providing more security in the workplace mixed with atleast some controls on the I word. A labour party with this platform COULD win.SandyRentool said:More threads like this please!
My quick response is that 'Blue Labour' has to be part of Labour's response to the new political order. Debating gender-neutral bathrooms is not what working class voters want to hear.
oh and drop the identity politics.0 -
Mr. nunu, but Corbyn wants open borders. That's not going to get him much approval from the working class.0
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May adopts Ed Miliband's policies and has a 14 point lead in the polls. The lesson is that who is giving the message is just as important, if not more important, than the message itself. Until Labour gets a credible leadership, one that can engage comfortably with a population whose basic belief systems it shares, the policies Labour has will be largely irrelevant.nunu said:
Yes! a million times yes. I actually think there is a huge yearning for Corbyn type economics not the old Labour re-hash of the 1970's but rather a clamping down on the 'gig' economy by providing more security in the workplace mixed with atleast some controls on the I word. A labour party with this platform COULD win.SandyRentool said:More threads like this please!
My quick response is that 'Blue Labour' has to be part of Labour's response to the new political order. Debating gender-neutral bathrooms is not what working class voters want to hear.
oh and drop the identity politics.
Corbyn was at his happiest and most relaxed yesterday when eulogising a recently deceased dictator who banned trade unions, imprisoned homosexuals, banned elections, presided over endless shortages and drained political prisoners of blood before they were executed. He is never going to get to the point of being able to argue the case for Labour policies as most voters will close their ears to him.
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The threat of "Fake News" and the desire to censor it being the latest example of establishment stupidity and authoritarianism. What's worse than fake news? Banning fake news. At least the Americans have a constitution to protect them from such idiocy.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. glw, it's the difference between seeing politicians as servants of people rather than their masters, and between persuasion and winning arguments as opposed to imposing opinions and banning (either legally or by social stigma) 'unacceptable' views.
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Mr. Observer, not only who espouses a policy, but who their principal opponent is.
Some of May's policies vary from questionable to demented.0 -
Not sure if the new regulations introduced in 2014 as an amendment to the 2003 Communications Act which came into effect this week, will greatly affect what you can choose to watch on-line. - It appears to only affect porn produced and sold in the UK and will affect paid-to view sites which are now regulated by the same guidelines set out by the British Board of Film Censors (BBFC) that DVD pornography (R18 films) must adhere to.Morris_Dancer said:[snip] *As an aside, this also plays into the Government's perverted desire to ban all 'non-conventional' adult material from the intent.
How this will prevent anyone watching stuff they like in the inter-webby age remains a mystery.
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Mr. StClare, hmm. I was under the impression it was a new regulation.
If it's as you say, then it's a censorious but ineffective approach, and remains stupid legislation.0 -
He wasn't the only person to do so. To his credit Chuka Umunna didn't join in the hagiography.SouthamObserver said:Corbyn was at his happiest and most relaxed yesterday when eulogising a recently deceased dictator who banned trade unions, imprisoned homosexuals, banned elections, presided over endless shortages and drained political prisoners of blood before they were executed.
Rightly so.SouthamObserver said:He is never going to get to the point of being able to argue the case for Labour policies as most voters will close their ears to him.
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The Democratic Party is headed for a left turn in the aftermath of defeat to Trump ...
Interesting headline for a US news publication:
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/most-736472-democratic-necessary.html
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A reasonable analysis.
The Labour Party does seem to be split between the SJWs who worry about trans-gender bathrooms, of interest to about half a dozen voters, and the more old fashioned politicians who concentrate on economic reforms.
The LDs get away with the SJW approach to some extent because they sort of mean well. But even here, patience can wear thin. However Labour SJWs tend to be aggressive, sneering at their opponents in an ugly fashion.
Jezza is stuck between the two camps. The Islington in him showing at unfortunate times.
But many of you are right (IMHO) in that it depends who's saying it. The Archbishop of Canterbury's or the Pope's concern for asylum seekers/migrants is probably sincere. The Luvvies' and the Emily Thornberry's virtue-signalling concerns are a chance to show how superior they are. And I doubt if the Pope or AoC would lecture on the need for transgender anything.0 -
Carney holding talks with businessmen to persuade them to call for Britain to remain in the single market till 2021.
http://www.cityam.com/254463/brexit-buffer-mark-carney-pushes-stay-single-market-until
Just who does this man think he is? Jumped up little prick.
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Mr Observer,
"Corbyn was at his happiest and most relaxed yesterday when eulogising a recently deceased dictator who banned trade unions, imprisoned homosexuals, banned elections, presided over endless shortages and drained political prisoners of blood before they were executed."
The means justifies the end if you know you're totally correct. And The Corbyns, Castro's and Guevara's know they are.
Ms Plato's clip of the views of the Cuban Missile crisis in Moscow was interesting. Truth is what the party says. Even during the Berlin wall construction, the citizens were told that it was built to prevent the Westerners trying to sneak into the land of milk and honey where Jezza took his squeeze on that motorcycle holiday.
Edit; Sorry - the end justifies the means, of course (not that I believe it).
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I suppose I'm wandering from Mr. Glassford's use of the word "populism", but maybe it's mundanely worth reminding ourselves that Clinton did actually get the most votes.0
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I watched him appear before the Select Committee (I think it was last week) and he was quite cocky towards some of the conservative MP's. I can't see this man lasting another three years in the job.Luckyguy1983 said:Carney holding talks with businessmen to persuade them to call for Britain to remain in the single market till 2021.
http://www.cityam.com/254463/brexit-buffer-mark-carney-pushes-stay-single-market-until
Just who does this man think he is? Jumped up little prick.
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Mr. 1983, it's a legitimate view to hold, but one would've thought the formation of policy was a matter for politicians.0
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OC Register?!MTimT said:The Democratic Party is headed for a left turn in the aftermath of defeat to Trump ...
Interesting headline for a US news publication:
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/most-736472-democratic-necessary.html
Chapman?!
LOL!
(Actually a good article, but I struggle to get past the source)0 -
So how's that Old Commonwealth trade block coming along?0
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Rick Parfitt & Francis Rossi in that photo don't look quite how I remember them!0
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Interesting to see the recent arrest in Russia, and what that means for the power struggles in the country. A much-needed crackdown on corruption, or removing other players from the field?CD13 said:Mr Observer,
"Corbyn was at his happiest and most relaxed yesterday when eulogising a recently deceased dictator who banned trade unions, imprisoned homosexuals, banned elections, presided over endless shortages and drained political prisoners of blood before they were executed."
The means justifies the end if you know you're totally correct. And The Corbyns, Castro's and Guevara's know they are.
Ms Plato's clip of the views of the Cuban Missile crisis in Moscow was interesting. Truth is what the party says. Even during the Berlin wall construction, the citizens were told that it was built to prevent the Westerners trying to sneak into the land of milk and honey where Jezza took his squeeze on that motorcycle holiday.
Edit; Sorry - the end justifies the means, of course (not that I believe it).
http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-ministers-arrest-leaves-russian-officials-asking-whos-next-2016-11?r=US&IR=T0 -
What a first Class article. Thought provoking and cogently argued.
Many thanks for this Mr Glassford.0 -
http://www.rtbf.be/info/dossier/election-presidentielle-francaise-2017/detail_france-suivez-en-direct-les-resultats-de-la-primaire-de-la-droite?id=9465429&ss=1
C'est 13% de plus que le taux de participation relevé au premier tour à la même heure.
Les derniers sondages prédisent la victoire de François Fillon avec 61% des suffrages contre 39% à Alain Juppé. (Poll I guess)
Selon Le Monde, les premiers résultats devraient tomber vers 20h30.
J'espere mon Betfair ne tomber pas aussi0 -
"Sondage" is the french for "poll" or "survey"Pulpstar said:http://www.rtbf.be/info/dossier/election-presidentielle-francaise-2017/detail_france-suivez-en-direct-les-resultats-de-la-primaire-de-la-droite?id=9465429&ss=1
C'est 13% de plus que le taux de participation relevé au premier tour à la même heure.
Les derniers sondages prédisent la victoire de François Fillon avec 61% des suffrages contre 39% à Alain Juppé. (Poll I guess)
Selon Le Monde, les premiers résultats devraient tomber vers 20h30.
J'espere mon Betfair ne tomber pas aussi0 -
How's Macron looking?0
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Incidentally, it's one week until not only the Italian referendum but the Austrian presidential vote.0
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I hope that's a joke Mr Dancer.Morris_Dancer said:How's Macron looking?
"Les pro-Juppé et les sympathisants de gauche pourraient être davantage mobilisés ce dimanche pour le second tour de l'élection, pour faire barrage à François Fillon... En Gironde, un département qui a très majoritairement voté pour lui au premier tour, "5 à 7%" de votants supplémentaires se sont déjà rendus dans leurs bureaux de vote, selon une journaliste du Figaro."
Turnout 5 to 7% up in Juppé supporting areas in an effort to strengthen his battle against Fillon.0 -
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Mr. Rabbit, despite using some Frenchisms in my fiction, my own French is bloody awful. Ah well.
Which reminds me, I need to replay Tomb Raider in German at some point.0 -
Macron backers will be hoping for a Fillon victoryMorris_Dancer said:How's Macron looking?
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All three of them ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I hope that's a joke Mr Dancer.Morris_Dancer said:How's Macron looking?
"Les pro-Juppé et les sympathisants de gauche pourraient être davantage mobilisés ce dimanche pour le second tour de l'élection, pour faire barrage à François Fillon... En Gironde, un département qui a très majoritairement voté pour lui au premier tour, "5 à 7%" de votants supplémentaires se sont déjà rendus dans leurs bureaux de vote, selon une journaliste du Figaro."
Turnout 5 to 7% up in Juppé supporting areas in an effort to strengthen his battle against Fillon.0 -
A close Fillon victory, something which suggests there are votes for the taking.rcs1000 said:0 -
Gironde was one of them. But yes, 7% up in three regions is worth 1% overall, if that. Juppéneeds to swing a lot of regions into his favour somehow.Pulpstar said:
All three of them ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I hope that's a joke Mr Dancer.Morris_Dancer said:How's Macron looking?
"Les pro-Juppé et les sympathisants de gauche pourraient être davantage mobilisés ce dimanche pour le second tour de l'élection, pour faire barrage à François Fillon... En Gironde, un département qui a très majoritairement voté pour lui au premier tour, "5 à 7%" de votants supplémentaires se sont déjà rendus dans leurs bureaux de vote, selon une journaliste du Figaro."
Turnout 5 to 7% up in Juppé supporting areas in an effort to strengthen his battle against Fillon.0 -
A very heavy read! Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease of 23. - "Very difficult to read. Best understood by university graduates." Fine for Richmond Park.
I used www.tools4noobs.com/summarize/ to summarise it as follows:
"What we are seeing, in the rise of populism, is an appeal to a population who are not simply divided along socioeconomic lines, or even in terms of the left-right political spectrum, but as a reflection of differential psycho-philosophical responses to largely unmandated societal transformation.
Ultimately, it’s about trust, which is fast disappearing at every level of society, and with the perception that the system is rotten from the top down and those behind the wheel determined to drive us off a cliff, our bought-off bureaucracy’s vehicles of progress, and even our direction of travel, are now in question.
Interestingly, here in the UK the Labour Party arguably has the most to lose or gain by ignoring or observing the take home message from recent developments, as it sets out its vision of ‘21st Century Socialism’.
However, what most commentators fail to appreciate, or perhaps daren’t say, is that the protest vote goes deeper than the much parroted axioms that people are uninspired by the same old insipid political ‘suits’, fed up with the malfeasance of the elite, have been economically ‘left behind’, or are simply “deplorable” ‘angry white men’."
Yes - that makes sense.0 -
+1SouthamObserver said:UKIP is a minority party and Nigel Farage a minority taste in the UK. Trump is now 2.3 million votes behind Clinton. The first thing the centre must do is take a deep breath. The second thing it must do is hold the right to account. It's one thing being a Twitter-based insurgency, it's quite another to govern. As May takes the Tories into populist right-wing territory in order to hold onto her job, I can't help thinking it's all going to end in tears. That Corbyn firewall only lasts for as long as Corbyn is there. If (when) he goes it becomes Wisconsin.
Southam, you are by far the best poster on this site. That has become even more clear as many of the PB right have shown their blatant double standards in the aftermath of Trump's victory. One thing, PBers don't seem to accept is that you can be concerned about a range of issues. There seems to the idea that if something doesn't affect most people it's unimportant. FGM, for example, won't affect most women in this country, but that doesn't mean it's not an abhorrent practice that we shouldn't care about. Society is a coalition of many groups and it's important to care about them all, and carry as many people with you as you can.
The most curious thing about the right, is for all their talk on what 'working class voters want' the lowest paid people in the country generally don't vote for their party, and the Conservatives have never really been the party of the working class. The working class have just been a useful human shield for the right to indirectly convey their own antipathy to not just recent immigration, but really post-war immigration in general. This site has a strange curiousity of comparing various ethnic minority groups and how they believe they've 'integrated', for example as if it were some sort of competition. Well, I wasn't aware of this competition until I came on this site.0 -
While the motivations for voting Trump and Brexit are similar, I think the outcomes are likely to be very different. Trump, simply, is a charlatan who will say whatever he thinks people want to hear. He can ditch rhetoric and policy positions at will, and already has, before even taking up office. As long as he can keep up the pretence of being in control and is seen to keep the metaphorical trains running on time, he will likely be popular.
Brexit on the other hand is a fact. It will be seen to transition well so people are content with the new situation; it will get stuck in the mud; or it will be an out and out fiasco. Theresa May can rhetorise as much as she wants but, unlike Trump, she will be judged entirely on results.0 -
colin kaepernick really is a tw@t....
Unrepentant hypocrite Colin Kaepernick defends Fidel Castro
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article117033883.html0 -
This graph should worry Labour. I wonder if there has been a 2015 version madeThe_Apocalypse said:
The most curious thing about the right, is for all their talk on what 'working class voters want' the lowest paid people in the country generally don't vote for their party, and the Conservatives have never really been the party of the working class. The working class have just been a useful human shield for the right to indirectly convey their own antipathy to not just recent immigration, but really post-war immigration in general. This site has a strange curiousity of comparing various ethnic minority groups and how they believe they've 'integrated', for example as if it were some sort of competition. Well, I wasn't aware of this competition until I came on this site.
http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/chart4.jpg
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I know that is why May is almost guaranteed victory at the next election. The idea of the nation state is anathema to him. Sad really as our parliamentary democracy works best when we have two competitive parties. It's not like there isn't a huge number of people who feel like this form of capitalism is not working for them, there are more than enough but they won't vote for the same Labour party that opened up the floodgates to migration.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. nunu, but Corbyn wants open borders. That's not going to get him much approval from the working class.
It wouldn't even have to particularly tough policy on immigration. Just some semblance of control.0 -
The lowest paid people are less likely to vote full stop. They may not vote Conservative in any great number but they increasingly don't turn out for Labour either. Hence why when something like the EU referendum comes along they take the chance to boot the establishment up the arse, Trump is a similar phenomenon where those "fly over states" are sticking it to the establishment by voting for the madman. 2017 will likely produce a couple more examples as this is not only a UK and US issue.The_Apocalypse said:The most curious thing about the right, is for all their talk on what 'working class voters want' the lowest paid people in the country generally don't vote for their party, and the Conservatives have never really been the party of the working class.
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Mr. 1000, cheers.0
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What a load of waffle the article that starts this thread is!0
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Anyway, I'm off. My post-race ramble is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/abu-dhabi-post-race-analysis-2016.html0 -
The lowest paid are less likely to vote full stop, because none of the political parties care about them. That's what happens when you have a political culture fixated on 65+ and the middle classes as the only people that matter in this country. This is why it's hilarious to see both sides talking about the working class, as if they know what they want. You have many comfortable, middle-class conservatives on this site talking with utter certainty about working class people.glw said:
The lowest paid people are less likely to vote full stop. They may not vote Conservative in any great number but they increasingly don't turn out for Labour either. Hence why when something like the EU referendum comes along they take the chance to boot the establishment up the arse, Trump is a similar phenomenon where those "fly over states" are sticking it to the establishment by voting for the madman. 2017 will like produce a couple more examples as this is not only a UK and US issue.The_Apocalypse said:The most curious thing about the right, is for all their talk on what 'working class voters want' the lowest paid people in the country generally don't vote for their party, and the Conservatives have never really been the party of the working class.
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"Wisconsin elections officials see no proof of hacking of voting machines"
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/nov/27/wisconsin-elections-officials-see-no-proof-of-hack/0 -
Turnout in France up more in Fillon areas than Juppé ones.
Make of that what you will.0 -
John Gray:
"Donald Trump’s victory has changed politics irrevocably. The age of unchecked globalisation and armed missionaries for liberal values is over. And we are entering a new age of great-power rivalry."
http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2016/11/iron-law-oligarchy0 -
This site is likely quite a bit more diverse than you think.The_Apocalypse said:You have many comfortable, middle-class conservatives on this site talking with utter certainty about working class people.
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Selon la Tribune de Genève, François Fillon serait élu à plus de 60%. Plus d'infos dans quelques minutes.
According to the Geneva Tribune, Fillon has been elected on more than 60% of the vote.
French exit polls often leaked to Geneva.0 -
The_Apocalypse said:
+1SouthamObserver said:UKIP is a minority party and Nigel Farage a minority taste in the UK. Trump is now 2.3 million votes behind Clinton. The first thing the centre must do is take a deep breath. The second thing it must do is hold the right to account. It's one thing being a Twitter-based insurgency, it's quite another to govern. As May takes the Tories into populist right-wing territory in order to hold onto her job, I can't help thinking it's all going to end in tears. That Corbyn firewall only lasts for as long as Corbyn is there. If (when) he goes it becomes Wisconsin.
The most curious thing about the right, is for all their talk on what 'working class voters want' the lowest paid people in the country generally don't vote for their party, and the Conservatives have never really been the party of the working class.
The trump vote is not really white working class, this is a myth. His support from white voters cuts through income and overall Hillary led with poorer voters, despite how different this election was it is interesting to see how simmilar it was in terms of Republican and Democrat support with different income groups. Rather having a 4 year degree or not is a better predictor of his support. Possibly because his support skews older as you could get a good job without a degree but younger people are much more likely to have a degree but still find it diffucult to get a good job as the middle class there has/is being hollowed out. We should call them the white older voter.
The Brexit vote did skew poorer however.0 -
The wonderful thing about charts like these is that they show changes over time.The_Apocalypse said:@RobD
I don't see your point re that graph?
Most DE voters aren't voting Tory.0 -
64% centre and right voters
15% left wing
12% unlabelled
9% far right
Similar to last week0 -
It'd be quite pleasing if Trump extends his lead in the recount.MP_SE said:"Wisconsin elections officials see no proof of hacking of voting machines"
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/nov/27/wisconsin-elections-officials-see-no-proof-of-hack/0 -
That chart appears to show the DE vote bouncing between 31% - 24% over a period of three decades, not a gradual increase over 30 years.RobD said:
The wonderful thing about charts like these is that they show changes over time.The_Apocalypse said:@RobD
I don't see your point re that graph?
Most DE voters aren't voting Tory.0 -
But with a significantly smaller gap between C2DE and ABC1.The_Apocalypse said:
That chart appears to show the DE vote bouncing between 31% - 24% over a period of three decades, not a gradual increase over 30 years.RobD said:
The wonderful thing about charts like these is that they show changes over time.The_Apocalypse said:@RobD
I don't see your point re that graph?
Most DE voters aren't voting Tory.0 -
Indeed this is an exit poll, pretty good record in FranceTheWhiteRabbit said:Selon la Tribune de Genève, François Fillon serait élu à plus de 60%. Plus d'infos dans quelques minutes.
According to the Geneva Tribune, Fillon has been elected on more than 60% of the vote.
French exit polls often leaked to Geneva.0 -
There are a lot of rumous on twitter about Fillon greater than 60%.TheWhiteRabbit said:64% centre and right voters
15% left wing
12% unlabelled
9% far right
Similar to last week0 -
And it is surprising she is still using that discredited argument that Trump over-performed in areas with voting machines.MP_SE said:"Wisconsin elections officials see no proof of hacking of voting machines"
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/nov/27/wisconsin-elections-officials-see-no-proof-of-hack/0 -
@nunu Agreed. Some of the richest groups in America voted Trump. The difference between Brexit and Trump is that Brexit attracted people from all over the political spectrum. There were also valid, coherent arguments to be made against the EU. Trumpism is not a coherent political philosophy. The man who looks to be set in charge to make so, Steve Bannon of the Alt-right barely has a coherent set of beliefs either. On social issues, the alt-right seem just amount to hating the social changes of the 20th century.0
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CD2E aren't the 'lowest paid' though, are they? Which is who I referenced in my original post.RobD said:
But with a significantly smaller gap between C2DE and ABC1.The_Apocalypse said:
That chart appears to show the DE vote bouncing between 31% - 24% over a period of three decades, not a gradual increase over 30 years.RobD said:
The wonderful thing about charts like these is that they show changes over time.The_Apocalypse said:@RobD
I don't see your point re that graph?
Most DE voters aren't voting Tory.0 -
Well, a smaller gap between DE and ABC1 then. The point remains that the working class make up a larger fraction of Conservative support than they ever have.The_Apocalypse said:
CD2E aren't the 'lowest paid' though, are they? Which is who I referenced in my original post.RobD said:
But with a significantly smaller gap between C2DE and ABC1.The_Apocalypse said:
That chart appears to show the DE vote bouncing between 31% - 24% over a period of three decades, not a gradual increase over 30 years.RobD said:
The wonderful thing about charts like these is that they show changes over time.The_Apocalypse said:@RobD
I don't see your point re that graph?
Most DE voters aren't voting Tory.
Technically I think C2 is still working class, and your statement was "and the Conservatives have never really been the party of the working class", nothing to do with lowest paid.0 -
What price Fillon if he wins, he's already 1.5. I';d say 1.3 to 1.4, so not much it it.0
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That will be the Geneva exit poll.Speedy said:
There are a lot of rumous on twitter about Fillon greater than 60%.TheWhiteRabbit said:64% centre and right voters
15% left wing
12% unlabelled
9% far right
Similar to last week
There is no available bet to lay Juppé now0 -
Bit confused by Southam Observer's posts downthread. One minute she's 14 points ahead in the polls whilst enacting Ed Miliband's policies whilst apparently enacting right wing populist policies to hang on to her job. Was Ed Miliband a right wing populist SO?0
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I can't understand this obsession with Macron, being Minister of the Economy under Hollande is not a vote getter, it's a vote repeller.rcs1000 said:
"Failed Minister of the Economy" is not an election winner on his CV.0 -
My book is ugly as hell on Juppe, but could do with him losing now.0
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So the guy whom opinion polls said is going to win by a 2-1 margin, is going to win, shock.TheWhiteRabbit said:
That will be the Geneva exit poll.Speedy said:
There are a lot of rumous on twitter about Fillon greater than 60%.TheWhiteRabbit said:64% centre and right voters
15% left wing
12% unlabelled
9% far right
Similar to last week
There is no available bet to lay Juppé now0 -
Can back at 20 or lay at 30, the market think he's a loser.Pulpstar said:My book is ugly as hell on Juppe, but could do with him losing now.
How many times have we said that in the last year though...!0 -
Back (Bet For)
Francois Fillon 1.66 £211.00 £138.79
Alain Juppe 1.98 £43.00 £42.22 + £75 Ladbrokes at ~ Evens
Emmanuel Macron 18.50 £25.00 £437.50
Lay (Bet Against)
Alain Juppe 11.46 £74.00 £773.790 -
I haven't watched it, but propaganda was and is issued by both sides.CD13 said:Ms Plato's clip of the views of the Cuban Missile crisis in Moscow was interesting. Truth is what the party says.
Have you ever seen a western account that acknowledges that the resolution of the "1962 Cuban missile crisis" was in fact balanced: a withdrawal of Soviet nukes from Cuba and a withdrawal of US nukes from Turkey?
The official western position is still that the US nukes in Turkey were about to be withdrawn anyway. Like yeah, right, sure they were.
Similarly the British government had "humoured" the Soviet government the previous year by exchanging Konon Molody, a wicked and thoroughly illegal Soviet spy, for Greville Wynne, an innocent British businessman who, as innocent as the day is long, got himself "caught up in a spy flap" while on an innocent business trip to Moscow - where he was seeking only profit, not secrets - and had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with SIS, repeat, nothing. The reason he had no diplomatic cover was that he wasn't a spy, OK? Because Britain has no illegals; that's the KGB's department. Britain is always fair and above board and doesn't use propaganda either.
Similarly the whole story about US overflights of Soviet industrial areas to check out suitable sites for nuking was a complete lie. How dare the Soviets accuse the US of such dirtiness! Until of course US pilot Gary Powers got captured. Then the US government couldn't maintain its line any longer, and Eisenhower had to change it to its exact opposite: "Hell yeah we overfly! And we've got a right to! We do it because the other side is dirty and we are clean!"
Then there's what in Britain is still called the "Suez War", during which there may have been cooperation with the French but there was absolutely no cooperation whatsoever with Israel. "Oh, was Israel at war against Egypt at the same time as we and the Frogs were? How terribly int'resting!" British foreign office officials were later accurately recorded as asking.
0 -
Juppé -427 (mixed places)Pulpstar said:Back (Bet For)
Francois Fillon 1.66 £211.00 £138.79
Alain Juppe 1.98 £43.00 £42.22 + £75 Ladbrokes at ~ Evens
Emmanuel Macron 18.50 £25.00 £437.50
Lay (Bet Against)
Alain Juppe 11.46 £74.00 £773.79
Le Pen -800
Fillon +291
Macron -1400 -
Yet he gets twice the first round votes of Valls or Hollande in the polls.Speedy said:
I can't understand this obsession with Macron, being Minister of the Economy under Hollande is not a vote getter, it's a vote repeller.rcs1000 said:
"Failed Minister of the Economy" is not an election winner on his CV.
He is widely regarded as a reformer who was stymied by his boss.
And there are a lot of centre and left wing votes in France that don't have a home: off the top of my head there is Melenchon 13%, Hollande/Valls 8%, the Green Candidate 4%, Bayrou 9%, and Macron 15%. He is the credible 'Stop a Le Pen vs Fillon" second round candidate.0 -
You need to read my post again.RobD said:
Well, a smaller gap between DE and ABC1 then. The point remains that the working class make up a larger fraction of Conservative support than they ever have.The_Apocalypse said:
CD2E aren't the 'lowest paid' though, are they? Which is who I referenced in my original post.RobD said:
But with a significantly smaller gap between C2DE and ABC1.The_Apocalypse said:
That chart appears to show the DE vote bouncing between 31% - 24% over a period of three decades, not a gradual increase over 30 years.RobD said:
The wonderful thing about charts like these is that they show changes over time.The_Apocalypse said:@RobD
I don't see your point re that graph?
Most DE voters aren't voting Tory.
Technically I think C2 is still working class, and your statement was "and the Conservatives have never really been the party of the working class", nothing to do with lowest paid.
I said this: ''The most curious thing about the right, is for all their talk on what 'working class voters want' the lowest paid people in the country generally don't vote for their party, and the Conservatives have never really been the party of the working class.''
I literally mentioned the lowest paid right before the bit you quoted.
On the DE I addressed that: the graph isn't showing a gradual increase over thirty years of DE voters voting Tory. It's showing periods where the DE vote bounces sometimes to 31% (as it did in the 80s and more recently) to periods in the 90s and 2000s, where it stays at under 29%.
The point is, is that most working class people in this country don't vote Tory.0 -
Well, given the lead he had in the first round, it would be staggering if he didn't become the LR candidate. I'm not sure I'd back him below 1.5s.TheWhiteRabbit said:What price Fillon if he wins, he's already 1.5. I';d say 1.3 to 1.4, so not much it it.
0 -
I think that's in part because you give Macron a bigger chance than the market, which makes sense. I won't be backing past 1.5 for the time being.rcs1000 said:
Well, given the lead he had in the first round, it would be staggering if he didn't become the LR candidate. I'm not sure I'd back him below 1.5s.TheWhiteRabbit said:What price Fillon if he wins, he's already 1.5. I';d say 1.3 to 1.4, so not much it it.
0 -
AND they increasingly don't vote Labour. You only have to look at Scotland to see what the working class there think of the modern Labour Party.The_Apocalypse said:The point is, is that most working class people in this country don't vote Tory.
0 -
I'd quite like a drop to 1.37447 at the moment which is break even (on a simple best/worst ratio; I'm better on Macron, so I'd actually be slightly up).rcs1000 said:
Well, given the lead he had in the first round, it would be staggering if he didn't become the LR candidate. I'm not sure I'd back him below 1.5s.TheWhiteRabbit said:What price Fillon if he wins, he's already 1.5. I';d say 1.3 to 1.4, so not much it it.
0 -
Un observateur du dépouillement à Bordeaux, au sujet des bulletins pour Fillon : "même ici, y'en a beaucoup!"0
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Belgian broadcaster reporting their exit poll at 60% Fillon 40% Juppé0
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I wouldn't touch anything that has the stink of the Hollande government, especially on the economy, so Hollande, Valls, Macron are out.rcs1000 said:
Yet he gets twice the first round votes of Valls or Hollande in the polls.Speedy said:
I can't understand this obsession with Macron, being Minister of the Economy under Hollande is not a vote getter, it's a vote repeller.rcs1000 said:
"Failed Minister of the Economy" is not an election winner on his CV.
He is widely regarded as a reformer who was stymied by his boss.
And there are a lot of centre and left wing votes in France that don't have a home: off the top of my head there is Melenchon 13%, Hollande/Valls 8%, the Green Candidate 4%, Bayrou 9%, and Macron 15%. He is the credible 'Stop a Le Pen vs Fillon" second round candidate.
And also why would left wing voters vote for thacherite Macron to stop thacherite Fillon anyway.0 -
Did I deny that though? I pretty much criticised both parties on how they've treated the working classes in my response to you. You seem to think I'm some kind of defender of all things Labour. I'm not.glw said:
AND they increasingly don't vote Labour. You only have to look at Scotland to see what the working class there think of the modern Labour Party.The_Apocalypse said:The point is, is that most working class people in this country don't vote Tory.
0 -
"Similarly the whole story about US overflights of Soviet industrial areas to check out suitable sites for nuking was a complete lie. "Dromedary said:
I haven't watched it, but propaganda was and is issued by both sides.CD13 said:Ms Plato's clip of the views of the Cuban Missile crisis in Moscow was interesting. Truth is what the party says.
Have you ever seen a western account that acknowledges that the resolution of the "1962 Cuban missile crisis" was in fact balanced: a withdrawal of Soviet nukes from Cuba and a withdrawal of US nukes from Turkey?
The official western position is still that the US nukes in Turkey were about to be withdrawn anyway. Like yeah, right, sure they were.
Similarly the British government had "humoured" the Soviet government the previous year by exchanging Konon Molody, a wicked and thoroughly illegal Soviet spy, for Greville Wynne, an innocent British businessman who, as innocent as the day is long, got himself "caught up in a spy flap" while on an innocent business trip to Moscow - where he was seeking only profit, not secrets - and had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with SIS, repeat, nothing. The reason he had no diplomatic cover was that he wasn't a spy, OK? Because Britain has no illegals; that's the KGB's department. Britain is always fair and above board and doesn't use propaganda either.
Similarly the whole story about US overflights of Soviet industrial areas to check out suitable sites for nuking was a complete lie. How dare the Soviets accuse the US of such dirtiness! Until of course US pilot Gary Powers got captured. Then the US government couldn't maintain its line any longer, and Eisenhower had to change it to its exact opposite: "Hell yeah we overfly! And we've got a right to! We do it because the other side is dirty and we are clean!"
Then there's what in Britain is still called the "Suez War", during which there may have been cooperation with the French but there was absolutely no cooperation whatsoever with Israel. "Oh, was Israel at war against Egypt at the same time as we and the Frogs were? How terribly int'resting!" British foreign office officials were later accurately recorded as asking.
And I think that was a lie. AIUI the main purpose of the US spyflights was to keep track of the Soviet inventory of bombers and missiles, not "to check out suitable sites for nuking", though that might have been a secondary affect. Such flights proved that first the bomber gap, and later the missile gap, were fictions. In this way, the overflights actually helped cool the Cold War.
As a related aside, one of the reasons the Russians launched Sputnik first was that there was a certain reticence in the US about Soviet reactions to a satellite overflying their territory, or territory they had interests in. After Russia launched Sputnik first, all such concerns naturally evaporated.0 -
Hollande is a loser because the French think their country is on a downwards trajectory. Macron, even when in government, wanted to revolutionise the French state. If anything Hollande was the perfect straw man for that.Speedy said:
I wouldn't touch anything that has the stink of the Hollande government, especially on the economy, so Hollande, Valls, Macron are out.rcs1000 said:
Yet he gets twice the first round votes of Valls or Hollande in the polls.Speedy said:
I can't understand this obsession with Macron, being Minister of the Economy under Hollande is not a vote getter, it's a vote repeller.rcs1000 said:
"Failed Minister of the Economy" is not an election winner on his CV.
He is widely regarded as a reformer who was stymied by his boss.
And there are a lot of centre and left wing votes in France that don't have a home: off the top of my head there is Melenchon 13%, Hollande/Valls 8%, the Green Candidate 4%, Bayrou 9%, and Macron 15%. He is the credible 'Stop a Le Pen vs Fillon" second round candidate.
And also why would left wing voters vote for thacherite Macron to stop thacherite Fillon anyway.0 -
He's the adult in the room, trying to wrest the shotgun from the grip of the lunatic who's desperate to shoot herself in the foot.Luckyguy1983 said:Carney holding talks with businessmen to persuade them to call for Britain to remain in the single market till 2021.
http://www.cityam.com/254463/brexit-buffer-mark-carney-pushes-stay-single-market-until
Just who does this man think he is? Jumped up little prick.
0 -
Itnerestingly someone wants £8000 to back Fillon at 1.45 and to lay at 1.44... an effort to maintain the price(?) or to profit from people bettering both sides.0
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Not really his job.Bromptonaut said:
He's the adult in the room, trying to wrest the shotgun from the grip of the lunatic who's desperate to shoot herself in the foot.Luckyguy1983 said:Carney holding talks with businessmen to persuade them to call for Britain to remain in the single market till 2021.
http://www.cityam.com/254463/brexit-buffer-mark-carney-pushes-stay-single-market-until
Just who does this man think he is? Jumped up little prick.
Warning of the risks of Brexit was much closer to his job than this!0
