politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The biggest cheer shadow chancellor McDonnell got was when he
Comments
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"Meester Ambassador, wiv zeeze Bournville you really are spoiling us" doesn't have the same ring to it!foxinsoxuk said:
Euro chocolates! Not good old imperal anglophone ones...dr_spyn said:
Chocolate covered Brussels Sprouts.TheScreamingEagles said:Twenty three days too late for Halloween
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/8015230840083251200 -
When did it all start going wrong? That's the question. Maybe when Greece's books were allegedly cooked in order to get them into the Eurozone...0
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Been there. Done that. It is incredibly frustrating, so my sympathies to your friend.MaxPB said:
I've got a mate doing his nut because he bought Trump for a substantial figure on SpreadEx's ECV market which won't settle until all of the states are officially called.Pulpstar said:Stein is going to hit that $2.5 million target quite quickly actually.
The probability of Michigan getting flipped is close to zero, mind.0 -
Chicago is one of the big 3 cities in America where probably even white voters are swinging towards the Democrats. That may not be the case in most other cities once you go outside New York, LA and Chicago. (There'll be exceptions of course like San Francisco).Pulpstar said:
Curious that Cook County swings toward Hillary, yet Detroit, Philly and Milwaukee don't...another_richard said:Re the vote fraud claims in the USA.
Here are the Democrat to Republican swings in the rust belt states:
WV 7.7%
IO 7.7%
OH 5.8%
MI 4.9%
MO 4.8%
IN 4.5%
WN 3.9%
KY 3.6%
PN 3.2%
MN 3.1%
IL 0.4%
Now if you had to select a couple for vote fraud checks which would you pick ?0 -
It would be interesting to see the swings in all the big cities.Pulpstar said:
Curious that Cook County swings toward Hillary, yet Detroit, Philly and Milwaukee don't...another_richard said:Re the vote fraud claims in the USA.
Here are the Democrat to Republican swings in the rust belt states:
WV 7.7%
IO 7.7%
OH 5.8%
MI 4.9%
MO 4.8%
IN 4.5%
WN 3.9%
KY 3.6%
PN 3.2%
MN 3.1%
IL 0.4%
Now if you had to select a couple for vote fraud checks which would you pick ?
NYC had an overall swing to Trump but within that was a big pro-Trump swing on Staten Island and a big pro-Clinton swing in Manhattan.
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He obviously wasn't watching proceedings four years ago when we had to wait until January for the final result.MaxPB said:
I've got a mate doing his nut because he bought Trump for a substantial figure on SpreadEx's ECV market which won't settle until all of the states are officially called.Pulpstar said:Stein is going to hit that $2.5 million target quite quickly actually.
The probability of Michigan getting flipped is close to zero, mind.0 -
What about the guy who was balls deep into Clinton.. *ahem*.. as it were.AndyJS said:
He obviously wasn't watching proceedings four years ago when we had to wait until January for the final result.MaxPB said:
I've got a mate doing his nut because he bought Trump for a substantial figure on SpreadEx's ECV market which won't settle until all of the states are officially called.Pulpstar said:Stein is going to hit that $2.5 million target quite quickly actually.
The probability of Michigan getting flipped is close to zero, mind.0 -
Who was that ?RobD said:
What about the guy who was balls deep into Clinton.. *ahem*.. as it were.AndyJS said:
He obviously wasn't watching proceedings four years ago when we had to wait until January for the final result.MaxPB said:
I've got a mate doing his nut because he bought Trump for a substantial figure on SpreadEx's ECV market which won't settle until all of the states are officially called.Pulpstar said:Stein is going to hit that $2.5 million target quite quickly actually.
The probability of Michigan getting flipped is close to zero, mind.
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Hm, I see in the OBR's forecast that they have a fiscally neutral assumption that all EU spending at present will be replaced by domestic saving. Given that we are a net contributor (even when you consider funding from grants etc from the EU to Britain), the surely is a very conservative assumption, and could have an effect on the borrowing forecast.0
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I thought Pulpstar knew of someone who had a 4 or 5 figure bet on Clinton winning. I could be misremembering though!another_richard said:
Who was that ?RobD said:
What about the guy who was balls deep into Clinton.. *ahem*.. as it were.AndyJS said:
He obviously wasn't watching proceedings four years ago when we had to wait until January for the final result.MaxPB said:
I've got a mate doing his nut because he bought Trump for a substantial figure on SpreadEx's ECV market which won't settle until all of the states are officially called.Pulpstar said:Stein is going to hit that $2.5 million target quite quickly actually.
The probability of Michigan getting flipped is close to zero, mind.0 -
DC is about 90% Dem.AndyJS said:
Chicago is one of the big 3 cities in America where probably even white voters are swinging towards the Democrats. That may not be the case in most other cities once you go outside New York, LA and Chicago. (There'll be exceptions of course like San Francisco).Pulpstar said:
Curious that Cook County swings toward Hillary, yet Detroit, Philly and Milwaukee don't...another_richard said:Re the vote fraud claims in the USA.
Here are the Democrat to Republican swings in the rust belt states:
WV 7.7%
IO 7.7%
OH 5.8%
MI 4.9%
MO 4.8%
IN 4.5%
WN 3.9%
KY 3.6%
PN 3.2%
MN 3.1%
IL 0.4%
Now if you had to select a couple for vote fraud checks which would you pick ?0 -
another_richard said:
I was just testing ;-)RobD said:
IO=IA, PN=PA. I think!another_richard said:Re the vote fraud claims in the USA.
Here are the Democrat to Republican swings in the rust belt states:
WV 7.7%
IO 7.7%
OH 5.8%
MI 4.9%
MO 4.8%
IN 4.5%
WN 3.9%
KY 3.6%
PN 3.2%
MN 3.1%
IL 0.4%
Now if you had to select a couple for vote fraud checks which would you pick ?
You missed WN=WI0 -
I was also testingMTimT said:another_richard said:
I was just testing ;-)RobD said:
IO=IA, PN=PA. I think!another_richard said:Re the vote fraud claims in the USA.
Here are the Democrat to Republican swings in the rust belt states:
WV 7.7%
IO 7.7%
OH 5.8%
MI 4.9%
MO 4.8%
IN 4.5%
WN 3.9%
KY 3.6%
PN 3.2%
MN 3.1%
IL 0.4%
Now if you had to select a couple for vote fraud checks which would you pick ?
You missed WN=WI0 -
I wouldn't pay much attention to OBR forecasts.RobD said:Hm, I see in the OBR's forecast that they have a fiscally neutral assumption that all EU spending at present will be replaced by domestic saving. Given that we are a net contributor (even when you consider funding from grants etc from the EU to Britain), the surely is a very conservative assumption, and could have an effect on the borrowing forecast.
This is their first one:
http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/junebudget_annexc.pdf
The OBR under-predicted both government debt and the current account deficit by about £300bn.
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Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
The image you posted earlier would surely fall under this new definition.TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
Yeah, I was more wondering if it is a fair assumption? Given that we won't be paying for EU projects in other countries.another_richard said:
I wouldn't pay much attention to OBR forecasts.RobD said:Hm, I see in the OBR's forecast that they have a fiscally neutral assumption that all EU spending at present will be replaced by domestic saving. Given that we are a net contributor (even when you consider funding from grants etc from the EU to Britain), the surely is a very conservative assumption, and could have an effect on the borrowing forecast.
This is their first one:
http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/junebudget_annexc.pdf
The OBR under-predicted both government debt and the current account deficit by about £300bn.0 -
Under this new legislation I'd have to destroy my phone and MacBook with a nuclear hammer.RobD said:
The image you posted earlier would surely fall under this new definition.TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
Nuclear hammer? Interesting. I assume it's a disposable one?TheScreamingEagles said:
Under this new legislation I'd have to destroy my phone and MacBook with a nuclear hammer.RobD said:
The image you posted earlier would surely fall under this new definition.TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
I'm going to need Thor's hammer.RobD said:
Nuclear hammer? Interesting. I assume it's a disposable one?TheScreamingEagles said:
Under this new legislation I'd have to destroy my phone and MacBook with a nuclear hammer.RobD said:
The image you posted earlier would surely fall under this new definition.TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
Careful, pictures of his hammer could also fall foul of these new regs.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm going to need Thor's hammer.RobD said:
Nuclear hammer? Interesting. I assume it's a disposable one?TheScreamingEagles said:
Under this new legislation I'd have to destroy my phone and MacBook with a nuclear hammer.RobD said:
The image you posted earlier would surely fall under this new definition.TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
Two positives never make a negative. Yeah, yeah.RobD said:
I was also testingMTimT said:another_richard said:
I was just testing ;-)RobD said:
IO=IA, PN=PA. I think!another_richard said:Re the vote fraud claims in the USA.
Here are the Democrat to Republican swings in the rust belt states:
WV 7.7%
IO 7.7%
OH 5.8%
MI 4.9%
MO 4.8%
IN 4.5%
WN 3.9%
KY 3.6%
PN 3.2%
MN 3.1%
IL 0.4%
Now if you had to select a couple for vote fraud checks which would you pick ?
You missed WN=WI0 -
The Met plods seem to have outdone their usual uselessness in the serial killer case:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38082749
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Bloody hellanother_richard said:The Met plods seem to have outdone their usual uselessness in the serial killer case:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-380827490 -
'Poor decisions and lack of compassion' reported at NHS trust
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/mothers-and-babies-died-at-nhs-trust-plagued-by-clinical-errors?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard0 -
NHS medical staff should have to pay medical malpractise insurance, or they won't care enough to change.0
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"Pictures and videos that show spanking, whipping or caning that leaves marks, and sex acts involving urination, female ejaculation or menstruation as well as sex in public are likely to be caught by the ban – in effect turning back the clock on Britain’s censorship regime to the pre-internet era."TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography
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Isn't it just enforcing the current censorship regime?MP_SE said:
"Pictures and videos that show spanking, whipping or caning that leaves marks, and sex acts involving urination, female ejaculation or menstruation as well as sex in public are likely to be caught by the ban – in effect turning back the clock on Britain’s censorship regime to the pre-internet era."TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
I don't know. It has obviously been dreamt up by people with either nonexistent or incredibly boring sex lives.RobD said:
Isn't it just enforcing the current censorship regime?MP_SE said:
"Pictures and videos that show spanking, whipping or caning that leaves marks, and sex acts involving urination, female ejaculation or menstruation as well as sex in public are likely to be caught by the ban – in effect turning back the clock on Britain’s censorship regime to the pre-internet era."TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
It is censoring things that would not be classified by h BBFC. The censorship regime hasn't changed, just that it is actually being enforced. Whether or not it is feasible is another matter entirely.MP_SE said:
I don't know. It has obviously been dreamt up by people with either nonexistent or incredibly boring sex lives.RobD said:
Isn't it just enforcing the current censorship regime?MP_SE said:
"Pictures and videos that show spanking, whipping or caning that leaves marks, and sex acts involving urination, female ejaculation or menstruation as well as sex in public are likely to be caught by the ban – in effect turning back the clock on Britain’s censorship regime to the pre-internet era."TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
FPT someone asked to explain how net debt falls while we still have a deficit. And 4 or 5 people whittled on about percentage of GDP. Does nobody understand how debt service works? If you have a deficit, but it is smaller than principal debt service, net debt will fall.0
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whoops I'd be caught by this a lot of the porn I watch shows spanking tho that leaves a slight red mark. Is this for real? a bit ott.MP_SE said:
"Pictures and videos that show spanking, whipping or caning that leaves marks, and sex acts involving urination, female ejaculation or menstruation as well as sex in public are likely to be caught by the ban – in effect turning back the clock on Britain’s censorship regime to the pre-internet era."TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
No more Game of Thrones for Britain.nunu said:
whoops I'd be caught by this a lot of the porn I watch shows spanking tho that leaves a slight red mark. Is this for real? a bit ott.MP_SE said:
"Pictures and videos that show spanking, whipping or caning that leaves marks, and sex acts involving urination, female ejaculation or menstruation as well as sex in public are likely to be caught by the ban – in effect turning back the clock on Britain’s censorship regime to the pre-internet era."TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
Aren't those just 15 or 18 rated?edmundintokyo said:
No more Game of Thrones for Britain.nunu said:
whoops I'd be caught by this a lot of the porn I watch shows spanking tho that leaves a slight red mark. Is this for real? a bit ott.MP_SE said:
"Pictures and videos that show spanking, whipping or caning that leaves marks, and sex acts involving urination, female ejaculation or menstruation as well as sex in public are likely to be caught by the ban – in effect turning back the clock on Britain’s censorship regime to the pre-internet era."TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
Um, hold on a minute. Unstupid question: what's wrong with female ejaculation? By definition it's not an non-conventional sex actMP_SE said:
"Pictures and videos that show spanking, whipping or caning that leaves marks, and sex acts involving urination, female ejaculation or menstruation as well as sex in public are likely to be caught by the ban – in effect turning back the clock on Britain’s censorship regime to the pre-internet era."TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
Put another, simpler way, mortgage payments pay down the debt while adding to the deficit. The total debt falls if the amount of principal repaid with the mortgage payments exceeds the total deficit.FormerToryOrange said:FPT someone asked to explain how net debt falls while we still have a deficit. And 4 or 5 people whittled on about percentage of GDP. Does nobody understand how debt service works? If you have a deficit, but it is smaller than principal debt service, net debt will fall.
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Apols if posted before, but insightful article into partly how May has shaped her Cabinet - and how a generation of politicians, overlooked in Cameron's rush for "Glamour & The A List" have returned to government where they may actually be better than the 'bright young things' who preceded them:
http://www.conservativehome.com/highlights/2016/11/profile-damian-green-for-whom-todays-universal-credit-announcement-is-an-early-win.html
On Monday, while taking questions in the Commons, Mr Green pointed out that there are more older people in employment than ever before.
He could have added that he is one of them, and that at least three other ministers who were sacked in 2014 have been brought back into office by Mrs May: Sir Oliver Heald (aged 61, and like Mr Green, an Old Redingensian, or alumnus of Reading School); Sir Alan Duncan (aged 59, and like Mr Green, a former President of the Oxford Union); and David Jones (aged 64, and a former Secretary of State for Wales, where Mr Green was born).
This Government is not just more provincial, in the best sense, than its predecessor. It is also a kind of restoration.0 -
Looks like Stein has already raised the $2 million for the Wisconsin recount fees, plus a little bit extra to buy herself something nice.
https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount0 -
Doesn't conventionally happen when Tory MPs do it, apparently.viewcode said:
Um, hold on a minute. Unstupid question: what's wrong with female ejaculation? By definition it's not an non-conventional sex actMP_SE said:
"Pictures and videos that show spanking, whipping or caning that leaves marks, and sex acts involving urination, female ejaculation or menstruation as well as sex in public are likely to be caught by the ban – in effect turning back the clock on Britain’s censorship regime to the pre-internet era."TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
Does the amount of money they raised actually matter? If the vote isn't narrow enough, there won't be a recount.edmundintokyo said:Looks like Stein has already raised the $2 million for the Wisconsin recount fees, plus a little bit extra to buy herself something nice.
https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount0 -
and it's a bit ironic; if she had not stood, Clinton may have won the vast majority of her votes, winning all three states.edmundintokyo said:Looks like Stein has already raised the $2 million for the Wisconsin recount fees, plus a little bit extra to buy herself something nice.
https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount0 -
The reporting seems to be that you can get one in Wisconsin if you pay for it. Not sure about the other states.RobD said:
Does the amount of money they raised actually matter? If the vote isn't narrow enough, there won't be a recount.edmundintokyo said:Looks like Stein has already raised the $2 million for the Wisconsin recount fees, plus a little bit extra to buy herself something nice.
https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount
She should petition to re-run the election without Jill Stein on the ballot.0 -
I think the bill containing the current censorship regime was passed unopposed back in the 80s.edmundintokyo said:
Doesn't conventionally happen when Tory MPs do it, apparently.viewcode said:
Um, hold on a minute. Unstupid question: what's wrong with female ejaculation? By definition it's not an non-conventional sex actMP_SE said:
"Pictures and videos that show spanking, whipping or caning that leaves marks, and sex acts involving urination, female ejaculation or menstruation as well as sex in public are likely to be caught by the ban – in effect turning back the clock on Britain’s censorship regime to the pre-internet era."TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
Don't the government accounts just show interest in the debt service line?MTimT said:
Put another, simpler way, mortgage payments pay down the debt while adding to the deficit. The total debt falls if the amount of principal repaid with the mortgage payments exceeds the total deficit.FormerToryOrange said:FPT someone asked to explain how net debt falls while we still have a deficit. And 4 or 5 people whittled on about percentage of GDP. Does nobody understand how debt service works? If you have a deficit, but it is smaller than principal debt service, net debt will fall.
It's not like a mortgage which is paid off over a certain period - standing assumption is that the principal is refinanced0 -
My guess, FWIW, is that the forecasts yesterday will prove too pessimistic on growth but may well prove to be correct on the deficit. Our deficit has proved much more persistent (because so much of it was structural) than we might have hoped and it has not responded to growth in the way that one would conventionally expect. A part of this is that very low inflation means that there has been far less fiscal drag than would have conventionally been the case. It seems reasonable to assume that this pattern will continue.
Another part of the problem is highlighted by this piece on the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38082535
The casualization of labour and the growth of self-employment means that far less employers NI is being paid and far more peoples' income is capable of being, ahem, under-recorded. When this is combined with a much higher personal allowance tax recovery becomes problematic. You have to do a lot of work to show that an Uber taxi driver has not just failed to record some fares but that resulted in him or her earning over £11,500 in the financial year.
Hammond says he is going to look at all this. I don't think he will find any easy answers. The weight of the State is falling on fewer shoulders.0 -
The Washington Post: Trump turning away intelligence briefers since election win. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwqL-TzTA0
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Spot on Mr LDavidL said:My guess, FWIW, is that the forecasts yesterday will prove too pessimistic on growth but may well prove to be correct on the deficit. Our deficit has proved much more persistent (because so much of it was structural) than we might have hoped and it has not responded to growth in the way that one would conventionally expect. A part of this is that very low inflation means that there has been far less fiscal drag than would have conventionally been the case. It seems reasonable to assume that this pattern will continue.
Another part of the problem is highlighted by this piece on the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38082535
The casualization of labour and the growth of self-employment means that far less employers NI is being paid and far more peoples' income is capable of being, ahem, under-recorded. When this is combined with a much higher personal allowance tax recovery becomes problematic. You have to do a lot of work to show that an Uber taxi driver has not just failed to record some fares but that resulted in him or her earning over £11,500 in the financial year.
Hammond says he is going to look at all this. I don't think he will find any easy answers. The weight of the State is falling on fewer shoulders.
we re paying the price for HMG playing fast and loose with the tax base. It needs to reform the tax base so that more people are paying their whack rather than just the PAYE base, and then it needs to tackle the tax avoiding multinats.0 -
My God, is this really going to happen? A recount I mean.edmundintokyo said:
The reporting seems to be that you can get one in Wisconsin if you pay for it. Not sure about the other states.RobD said:
Does the amount of money they raised actually matter? If the vote isn't narrow enough, there won't be a recount.edmundintokyo said:Looks like Stein has already raised the $2 million for the Wisconsin recount fees, plus a little bit extra to buy herself something nice.
https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount
She should petition to re-run the election without Jill Stein on the ballot.0 -
Yes most likely.rottenborough said:
My God, is this really going to happen? A recount I mean.edmundintokyo said:
The reporting seems to be that you can get one in Wisconsin if you pay for it. Not sure about the other states.RobD said:
Does the amount of money they raised actually matter? If the vote isn't narrow enough, there won't be a recount.edmundintokyo said:Looks like Stein has already raised the $2 million for the Wisconsin recount fees, plus a little bit extra to buy herself something nice.
https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount
She should petition to re-run the election without Jill Stein on the ballot.
No, it won't change the result.0 -
Paging pensioners abroad:
During this negotiation we will seek to ensure the best possible outcome for the British people. However, it would be wrong to set out unilateral positions in advance of the negotiating process.
There has been no change to the rights and status of British citizens in the EU, or EU nationals in the UK as a result of the referendum. The Government recognises the challenges and fears of British nationals living in EU countries.
The Government is considering the positions and all options available with the aim of achieving the best outcome for British citizens. Nothing has yet been decided on the future of medical treatment in Europe for British pensioners once the UK leaves the EU.
The reciprocal rights and entitlements that will apply following the UK’s exit are subject to the wider negotiation on our future relationship with the EU. These negotiations have not yet begun so it is not possible to set out any positions in advance.
Department of Health0 -
I don't often disagree outright with OGH but I feel OK about doing so to-day - after all, I was in the Labour Party for years (several in the same CLP as JC) and OGH wasn't
Labour activists agree with its leadership (hint: what's the electorate for Labour leader?) Its voters agree with the body of its MPs. Parties split that way don't last long.
Nor do most voters care tuppence for the lack of Parliamentary scrutiny of he May administration. It's all too remote from them. Consider: Labour's splits haven't done the Lib Dems any good. Nor has Nigel shown either the desire or capacity to extend his personal popularity to his party.
Representative democracy itself is a walking corpse.0 -
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Heart of stone etcAlastairMeeks said:0 -
What is the evidence that its voters agree with the body of its MPs?Innocent_Abroad said:I don't often disagree outright with OGH but I feel OK about doing so to-day - after all, I was in the Labour Party for years (several in the same CLP as JC) and OGH wasn't
Labour activists agree with its leadership (hint: what's the electorate for Labour leader?) Its voters agree with the body of its MPs. Parties split that way don't last long.
.
I would have thought the Brexit referendum provided hard evidence that -- at least in some constituencies -- Labour voters do not actually agree very much with their MP (e.g., in all the South Wales valleys constituencies).
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You may be right, and Nigel Farage and Aaron Banks might be about to step over the corpse and into the House of Commons with a populist Britain First party I am sad to say.Innocent_Abroad said:I don't often disagree outright with OGH but I feel OK about doing so to-day - after all, I was in the Labour Party for years (several in the same CLP as JC) and OGH wasn't
Labour activists agree with its leadership (hint: what's the electorate for Labour leader?) Its voters agree with the body of its MPs. Parties split that way don't last long.
Nor do most voters care tuppence for the lack of Parliamentary scrutiny of he May administration. It's all too remote from them. Consider: Labour's splits haven't done the Lib Dems any good. Nor has Nigel shown either the desire or capacity to extend his personal popularity to his party.
Representative democracy itself is a walking corpse.0 -
The Tories finally need to get behind a flat tax.Alanbrooke said:
Spot on Mr LDavidL said:My guess, FWIW, is that the forecasts yesterday will prove too pessimistic on growth but may well prove to be correct on the deficit. Our deficit has proved much more persistent (because so much of it was structural) than we might have hoped and it has not responded to growth in the way that one would conventionally expect. A part of this is that very low inflation means that there has been far less fiscal drag than would have conventionally been the case. It seems reasonable to assume that this pattern will continue.
Another part of the problem is highlighted by this piece on the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38082535
The casualization of labour and the growth of self-employment means that far less employers NI is being paid and far more peoples' income is capable of being, ahem, under-recorded. When this is combined with a much higher personal allowance tax recovery becomes problematic. You have to do a lot of work to show that an Uber taxi driver has not just failed to record some fares but that resulted in him or her earning over £11,500 in the financial year.
Hammond says he is going to look at all this. I don't think he will find any easy answers. The weight of the State is falling on fewer shoulders.
we re paying the price for HMG playing fast and loose with the tax base. It needs to reform the tax base so that more people are paying their whack rather than just the PAYE base, and then it needs to tackle the tax avoiding multinats.
And also the legalisation of drugs, while we're on the subject.
(Same, er, Conservative thinking against both.)0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Kingdom Asunder is out for release today:
Amazon US - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N8UF799/
Amazon UK - https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01N8UF799/
Kobo - https://store.kobobooks.com/en-ca/ebook/kingdom-asunder-the-bloody-crown-trilogy-volume-one
Barnes & Noble - http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/books/1125052815?ean=2940153811246
Early reviews are up here:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32852394-kingdom-asunder
They're very positive, and I do hope you give the book a look. After all, it has the best words.0 -
So Redwood and Rees-Mogg are now go-to backbenchers for the BBC.
Does this tell us more about the Conservative Party or the BBC?0 -
CongratsMorris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Kingdom Asunder is out for release today:
Amazon US - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N8UF799/
Amazon UK - https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01N8UF799/
Kobo - https://store.kobobooks.com/en-ca/ebook/kingdom-asunder-the-bloody-crown-trilogy-volume-one
Barnes & Noble - http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/books/1125052815?ean=2940153811246
Early reviews are up here:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32852394-kingdom-asunder
They're very positive, and I do hope you give the book a look. After all, it has the best words.0 -
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 11m11 minutes ago
Hammond: "UK can sustain a relatively high level of debt". That is direct opposite of what Ministers have been saying for past decade.
You have to be f****** kidding me. Weren't we told that the Bank of England had phoned Clegg personally in May 2010 and told him to do a deal and support austerity otherwise we were Greece thanks to our massive debt?0 -
Mr. Topping, cheers. I've written a cunning list of explanations why people of all political persuasions should buy it, but I'll save that for the next thread (which I imagine will come soon).0
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But the people who made the promise won't be taking the blame.rottenborough said:
Heart of stone etcAlastairMeeks said:
This is the great thing about populism: You can break the system, then tell the voters the system is broken.0 -
This is the Mattinson who covered herself in glory during the Blair & Brown years. The advisor to Northern Rock.AlastairMeeks said:
It is like quoting a tweet from Tony Blair as "evidence".0 -
In that case, we'd better spell his name right: it's Arron Banksrottenborough said:
You may be right, and Nigel Farage and Aaron Banks might be about to step over the corpse and into the House of Commons with a populist Britain First party I am sad to say.Innocent_Abroad said:I don't often disagree outright with OGH but I feel OK about doing so to-day - after all, I was in the Labour Party for years (several in the same CLP as JC) and OGH wasn't
Labour activists agree with its leadership (hint: what's the electorate for Labour leader?) Its voters agree with the body of its MPs. Parties split that way don't last long.
Nor do most voters care tuppence for the lack of Parliamentary scrutiny of he May administration. It's all too remote from them. Consider: Labour's splits haven't done the Lib Dems any good. Nor has Nigel shown either the desire or capacity to extend his personal popularity to his party.
Representative democracy itself is a walking corpse.
0 -
Last month Philip Hammond told the Tory party conference: “It is clear to me that the British people did not vote on June 23 to become poorer.” It turns out they did. The Office for Budget Responsibility was unequivocal in its updated forecasts for the autumn statement. Brexit has cost Britain on every measure worth looking at.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/autumn-statement/were-all-paying-for-brexit-now-t2j7v6bx80 -
Well done Mr Dancer. Always an outstanding achievement to finish a book!Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Kingdom Asunder is out for release today:
Amazon US - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N8UF799/
Amazon UK - https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01N8UF799/
Kobo - https://store.kobobooks.com/en-ca/ebook/kingdom-asunder-the-bloody-crown-trilogy-volume-one
Barnes & Noble - http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/books/1125052815?ean=2940153811246
Early reviews are up here:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32852394-kingdom-asunder
They're very positive, and I do hope you give the book a look. After all, it has the best words.0 -
Which producer could fail to want to interview the Mogg? It is always important to hear how the 18th century would have dealt with today's problems.TOPPING said:So Redwood and Rees-Mogg are now go-to backbenchers for the BBC.
Does this tell us more about the Conservative Party or the BBC?0 -
Well, it's true most of them didn't. A few it seems believed the economic forecasts but choose to ignore them (taking the view that reducing migration and/or full sovereignty for parliament was worth the cost); the majority though were fooled into believing the 'experts' were all liars.Scott_P said:Last month Philip Hammond told the Tory party conference: “It is clear to me that the British people did not vote on June 23 to become poorer.” It turns out they did. The Office for Budget Responsibility was unequivocal in its updated forecasts for the autumn statement. Brexit has cost Britain on every measure worth looking at.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/autumn-statement/were-all-paying-for-brexit-now-t2j7v6bx80 -
@Morris_Dancer I've just bought a copy. PS Don't forget to use an Amazon Affinity Link such as this excellent cause ! https://www.dur.ac.uk/durham.palestine/0
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You mean ducking stools, transportation and flogging round the fleet?rottenborough said:
Which producer could fail to want to interview the Mogg? It is always important to hear how the 18th century would have dealt with today's problems.TOPPING said:So Redwood and Rees-Mogg are now go-to backbenchers for the BBC.
Does this tell us more about the Conservative Party or the BBC?0 -
You go to the people who represent those calling the shotsTOPPING said:So Redwood and Rees-Mogg are now go-to backbenchers for the BBC.
Does this tell us more about the Conservative Party or the BBC?0 -
But Sean Fear says the economy is growing so we're all fine. Depends who's benefiting from the growth Sean.Scott_P said:Last month Philip Hammond told the Tory party conference: “It is clear to me that the British people did not vote on June 23 to become poorer.” It turns out they did. The Office for Budget Responsibility was unequivocal in its updated forecasts for the autumn statement. Brexit has cost Britain on every measure worth looking at.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/autumn-statement/were-all-paying-for-brexit-now-t2j7v6bx80 -
JRM has more intelligence than the entire shadow cabinet combined.rottenborough said:
Which producer could fail to want to interview the Mogg? It is always important to hear how the 18th century would have dealt with today's problems.TOPPING said:So Redwood and Rees-Mogg are now go-to backbenchers for the BBC.
Does this tell us more about the Conservative Party or the BBC?
0 -
@JohnRentoul: "I am well aware of his views, which are, as always, long standing and utterly consistent." Philip Hammond to John Redwood yesterday #as16Monksfield said:You go to the people who represent those calling the shots
One of the finest put downs of recent years0 -
Nope - he's equally as delusional, just better spoken.TGOHF said:
JRM has more intelligence than the entire shadow cabinet combined.rottenborough said:
Which producer could fail to want to interview the Mogg? It is always important to hear how the 18th century would have dealt with today's problems.TOPPING said:So Redwood and Rees-Mogg are now go-to backbenchers for the BBC.
Does this tell us more about the Conservative Party or the BBC?
0 -
Will be interesting to see if PH is more successful than GO was at eliminating the deficit - early signs aren't great.Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: "I am well aware of his views, which are, as always, long standing and utterly consistent." Philip Hammond to John Redwood yesterday #as16Monksfield said:You go to the people who represent those calling the shots
One of the finest put downs of recent years0 -
Are professionals to be judged by their clients?YBarddCwsc said:
This is the Mattinson who covered herself in glory during the Blair & Brown years. The advisor to Northern Rock.AlastairMeeks said:
It is like quoting a tweet from Tony Blair as "evidence".0 -
Mr. Borough/Mr. Submarine, thanks (although it's part one of a trilogy so I'm still working on the story).
Interesting affiliate suggestion. I wonder if there's an Alzheimer's one.0 -
Prof Curtice as Batman...
Mark Shephard
Shephard and Curtice as superheroes raising money at a fashion show for the University of #Strathclyde Malawi charity https://t.co/7BJZ7NnRxf0 -
Your class bias is clouding your judgement.SouthamObserver said:
Nope - he's equally as delusional, just better spoken.TGOHF said:
JRM has more intelligence than the entire shadow cabinet combined.rottenborough said:
Which producer could fail to want to interview the Mogg? It is always important to hear how the 18th century would have dealt with today's problems.TOPPING said:So Redwood and Rees-Mogg are now go-to backbenchers for the BBC.
Does this tell us more about the Conservative Party or the BBC?0 -
I find it all very confusing. The idea that female ejaculation is a non conventional sex act is rediculous.viewcode said:
Um, hold on a minute. Unstupid question: what's wrong with female ejaculation? By definition it's not an non-conventional sex actMP_SE said:
"Pictures and videos that show spanking, whipping or caning that leaves marks, and sex acts involving urination, female ejaculation or menstruation as well as sex in public are likely to be caught by the ban – in effect turning back the clock on Britain’s censorship regime to the pre-internet era."TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts
Campaigners label bill targeted at online pornography a ‘prurient’ intervention that will take Britain’s censorship regime back to pre-internet era
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/nov/23/censor-non-conventional-sex-acts-online-internet-pornography0 -
No.TGOHF said:Will be interesting to see if PH is more successful than GO was at eliminating the deficit - early signs aren't great.
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/8016998388785152000 -
Congratulations, Mr Dancer.
A splendid achievement.0 -
She advised Northern Rock on corporate responsibility.williamglenn said:
Are professionals to be judged by their clients?YBarddCwsc said:
This is the Mattinson who covered herself in glory during the Blair & Brown years. The advisor to Northern Rock.AlastairMeeks said:
It is like quoting a tweet from Tony Blair as "evidence".
What more can I say?
If you wish to buy bread from the bakery in Pudding Lane, that is your call.0 -
And not an ounce of common sense.TGOHF said:
JRM has more intelligence than the entire shadow cabinet combined.rottenborough said:
Which producer could fail to want to interview the Mogg? It is always important to hear how the 18th century would have dealt with today's problems.TOPPING said:So Redwood and Rees-Mogg are now go-to backbenchers for the BBC.
Does this tell us more about the Conservative Party or the BBC?0 -
Mr. CD13, well, we'll the reviewers say
[Thanks
].
On non-conventional sex acts, the opening scene of KA was going to involve toe-sucking, but I had to remove that for consistency grounds.
It is puritanical bullshit from the Government to censor such things.0 -
One of Scotland's tech Unicorns has just been sod to a Chinese company
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/24/skyscanner-sold-to-chinas-ctrip-in-14bn-deal
Use Skyscanner, Skyscanner is great0 -
The nation needs a new takeover defence mechanism, especially for smaller companies.Alistair said:One of Scotland's tech Unicorns has just been sod to a Chinese company
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/24/skyscanner-sold-to-chinas-ctrip-in-14bn-deal
Use Skyscanner, Skyscanner is great0 -
Quite. It shows the power of message over facts that only last year the Conservatives genuinely convinced most people that debt reduction was absolutely crucial and any party not committed to it at all costs would ruin Britain. Now they're saying the opposite, most people will just say "oh good, thatt's a relief". The problem may be that demands for extra spending on all manner of things will start to reappear.rottenborough said:(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 11m11 minutes ago
Hammond: "UK can sustain a relatively high level of debt". That is direct opposite of what Ministers have been saying for past decade.
You have to be f****** kidding me. Weren't we told that the Bank of England had phoned Clegg personally in May 2010 and told him to do a deal and support austerity otherwise we were Greece thanks to our massive debt?
Congratulations, Morris! - very satisfying! Good luck iwth the next volumes too.0 -
Nope. My powers of observation are merely confirming a longstanding truth: a well spoken fool is still a fool. See also Boris Johnson.TGOHF said:
Your class bias is clouding your judgement.SouthamObserver said:
Nope - he's equally as delusional, just better spoken.TGOHF said:
JRM has more intelligence than the entire shadow cabinet combined.rottenborough said:
Which producer could fail to want to interview the Mogg? It is always important to hear how the 18th century would have dealt with today's problems.TOPPING said:So Redwood and Rees-Mogg are now go-to backbenchers for the BBC.
Does this tell us more about the Conservative Party or the BBC?
0 -
https://twitter.com/fractalbears/status/801383297414819840TheScreamingEagles said:Christ on a bike. Perverted is in the eye of the beholder, whatever you do, don't get it in her eye.
UK to censor online videos of 'non-conventional' sex acts0 -
Mr. Palmer, thanks.
Disagree on the debt. The Government is seeking to follow the electorate's decision. If that means more debt they can't simply say "We're doooomed!", can they?
Edited extra bit: a trilogy is a bit of a bugger to write because you've got to try and get the first set in stone whilst not painting yourself into a corner for subsequent books, and it's quite hard to tell if you're on track to release things on time.0 -
At least he's not claiming that he will.TGOHF said:
Will be interesting to see if PH is more successful than GO was at eliminating the deficit - early signs aren't great.Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: "I am well aware of his views, which are, as always, long standing and utterly consistent." Philip Hammond to John Redwood yesterday #as16Monksfield said:You go to the people who represent those calling the shots
One of the finest put downs of recent years
A little honesty is refreshing after six years of Osborne's promises.
Hopefully the honesty will now spread to discussion about the current account deficit - something else which was supposed to have ended by now.
0 -
LOL @ Jill Stein failing to calculate the costs of the recounts. Turns out is going to cost around $7-8m and not the $2m she originally stated. Typically lefty financial illiteracy.0
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The glaring honesty gap comes from OBR and HMT projections. There is a recession missing in the outlook for the next few years. So all the other numbers are worthless.another_richard said:
At least he's not claiming that he will.TGOHF said:
Will be interesting to see if PH is more successful than GO was at eliminating the deficit - early signs aren't great.Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: "I am well aware of his views, which are, as always, long standing and utterly consistent." Philip Hammond to John Redwood yesterday #as16Monksfield said:You go to the people who represent those calling the shots
One of the finest put downs of recent years
A little honesty is refreshing after six years of Osborne's promises.
Hopefully the honesty will now spread to discussion about the current account deficit - something else which was supposed to have ended by now.
0 -
Yes he isanother_richard said:At least he's not claiming that he will.
@rosschawkins: Hammond on @BBCr4today - "can either aim for surplus 19/20" or... accept going to take "couple of years longer to get to budget balance"0 -
Yes.Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: "I am well aware of his views, which are, as always, long standing and utterly consistent." Philip Hammond to John Redwood yesterday #as16Monksfield said:You go to the people who represent those calling the shots
One of the finest put downs of recent years
Everyone is entitled to their own point of view
(No matter how stupid it may be)0 -
Democracy can only exist until people discover they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Palmer, thanks.
Disagree on the debt. The Government is seeking to follow the electorate's decision. If that means more debt they can't simply say "We're doooomed!", can they?
Edited extra bit: a trilogy is a bit of a bugger to write because you've got to try and get the first set in stone whilst not painting yourself into a corner for subsequent books, and it's quite hard to tell if you're on track to release things on time.0 -
You are the great example of that.logical_song said:
Yes.Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: "I am well aware of his views, which are, as always, long standing and utterly consistent." Philip Hammond to John Redwood yesterday #as16Monksfield said:You go to the people who represent those calling the shots
One of the finest put downs of recent years
Everyone is entitled to their own point of view
(No matter how stupid it may be)0