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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON lead over LAB drops 9% in latest Ipsos MORI phone poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON lead over LAB drops 9% in latest Ipsos MORI phone poll
Latest @IpsosMORI poll sees drop in CON lead. LAB & LDs the gainersCON 42% -5LAB 33% +4LD 10% +3UKIP 7% +1
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But what did she expect when she appointed the disgraced Liam Fox and the the narcissist David Davis to lead the Brexit departments.
Mrs May should be more concerned that Brexit is perceived to be being handled badly. Nothing in the news in the last couple of days is going to have altered that impression either. Time to get a grip.
Doesn't exactly fill me with confidence she'll be neutral when it comes to judging the case.
I compared it to selling and buying a house. If you don't time it right, you face the possibility of nowhere to live for days/weeks/months.
Unpicking the laws that are part of our membership of the EC/EU ain't easy.
It is usually with revolutions that you see the last 40 odd years worth of laws being repealed.
Even a terrible performer like JC can get wins with this.
May isn't handling this well at all.
Grieve's wetter than a lettuce on the Titanic.
Anyway, I have to be off to walk the hound.
Keep Jezza locked away in Mrs Rochester's attic.
What was he thinking?
https://www.supremecourt.uk/docs/speech-161109.pdf
Could work, but her delivery is off...
Who did 'sex up' the £350m claim anyway?
@JGForsyth: May's approach to customs union informed by her JHA opt outs policy as Home Secretary: leave it and then opt back into bits you like 1/2
@JGForsyth: 2/2 But question is whether the EU 27 will be interested in such an approach, they do have a surplus on cars, and whether WTO will accept it
Look at the data tables .
Conservatives lose 16 2015 Conservative voters to Lib Dems and gain 1 2015 Lib Dem voter back
Conservatives lose 8 2015 Conservative voters to Labour and gain 8 2015 Labour voters back
Labour lose 12 2015 Labour voters to Lib Dems and gain 5 2015 Lib Dem voters back
102 Lib Dem voters in sample reduced to 89 after weighting
53 UKIP voters in sample increased to 73 after weighting
Conservative and Labour voters numbers almost unchanged by weighting .
She is 373 votes behind 1% of all votes, probably will bust 1%.
I suspect May really means worst outcome for herself rather than the country.
She runs one of the leakiest governments of recent times,so we actually know a fair amount of what's going on. There are a lot of agendas. There is what I would describe as a wishlist, rather a plan. That's going to fall apart at the first contact with the enemy. What there isn't much of is anything that could accurately be described as strategy. Michel Barnier from the EU side does have a strategy: start with the exit terms; park any final agreements and haggle over the interim arrangement. Is that acceptable to the UK government? It looks like a fairly tough negotiating stance.
The gov is being asked for a hard plan for Brexit, not some sort of open committee discussing the options.
The US election was a huge news event even here in the U.K., and it isn't possible that part of the swing back to the centre-left is some sort of counter-reaction. If true, that helps the LibDems in Richmond since I know this is one of the secondary arguments they have been trying to deploy. Make a stand for liberalism while you still have the chance.
Side-line the whingers. When the deal is announced, humour them by letting them whinge in Parliamentary debate. Job done.
…… it’s too soon to say
…… that the government has been competent or otherwise about Brexit.
I agree. She was crap at PMQs from the beginning and hasn't improved. Jezza has marginally improved but he's still crap too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8htuXIav1E
Zhou Enlai was notoriously cautious - like Theresa May, funnily enough - which is why he was the only Chinese leader to survive every purge. Even Mao was demoted at one point.
http://news.sky.com/story/post-truth-named-oxford-dictionaries-word-of-the-year-10659284
(OK it's two words hyphenated)
What kind of stance would you advise?
Nabavi advised the bet and I'm on for a hundred quid.
Still good value if its around that price.
"You don't feel that the terms we should seek for Brexit are a matter for legitimate public debate for MPs, just none of their business? "
No, sod 'em. They only want to grandstand anyway. What constructive suggestion will they have? They'll ask for the moon on a stick and still whinge whatever the outcome. Don't humour them by letting them jump up and down yelling. "Please, miss, we're really important."
'Take back control - Parliament is sovereign.'
Was the field work done after the Trump win?
https://twitter.com/adamserwer/status/798864752546025472
FWIW, Ipsos' Con/Lab figures continue to go up and down like a rollercoaster, and its Ukip figure is still well adrift of all the other pollsters.
Look at the overall trend of all the national VI polls and things have been pretty close to static since Theresa May became PM in mid-July. There's still no clearly observable trend upwards or downwards for any of the main parties. The consistent Tory leads - for a Government in mid-term which is also dealing with huge challenges - are still remarkable.
May should lead a parliamentary debate on the broad principles that the government will go into the negotiations with, and seek the Commons' backing on them. That would strengthen her hand in both Westminster and Brussels without revealing red lines or concessionable items.
There is of course the risk that the result of the negotiations might fail to fit those principles but then the embarrassment for the government would scarcely be different from were what would the problem there would be much more the result than the juxtaposition against the earlier stance; journalists, MPs and public can recognise a bad result in isolation, without the need for a checklist.
It would however be bad news for UKIP, and good news for the Lib Dems.
https://twitter.com/AhirShah/status/798861099156336641
Governments often lead between elections - I don't think we can say the May Government is in its midterm just yet, that will take another 12-18 months. What we can probably say is the honeymoon period is coming to an end.