politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » DPP considering complaint that the LEAVE campaigns misled vote

Options
124

Comments

  • 619
    619 Posts: 1,784
    rottenborough said:

    Trump has just found that out that almost everyone in his latest huge rally in FL has already voted.

    Good use of his time!

    Oh wait...
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Icarus said:

    How do we put in our ECV predictions?

    Click on the states until they turn the colour you want and then press "share map" which will generate the correct link.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    john_zims said:

    @Barnesian


    'Let's rerun the referendum now that we all know a lot more about the options and issues.'


    Let's re-run the 2010 GE campaign because we now know the Lib Dem lied about scraping tuition fees.

    Good idea. Let's do it.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    I see the Siberian goat herders are busily out marshalling the eve of election polls in the US.

    Nate Silver's Number One rule for polling......
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    For the record, this is mine (and have backed). FL and NC are worrying me though (betting wise). I can absorb NC and still win my narrow Hill win bet but she wins FL and it's a bust. If by some chance America does take a Trip to Trumpton, I cash in, through my tears.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
    :) Not far off the famous Reagan victory but in reverse!!
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
    Come on 619 is a realist, the map will look like this http://www.270towin.com/maps/2GwZW
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Alistair said:

    Jobabob said:

    ECV forecasts currently MIA

    @PlatoSaid
    @PaulBedfordshire
    @JennyFreeman
    @MonikerDiCanio
    @StuartTruth

    Trump Rampers have been quietly rowing back their "Hillary will be smashed" rhetoric and have now gone for ambiguous "It will be tight/Narrow Hillary win" to try and avoid reputational loss of face.

    My View is either Clinton 294 or Clinton 352, no inbetween.
    Yes, a great deal of arse covering going on.
  • OllyT
    OllyT Posts: 5,050
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dawning, my understanding is that Cameron's speech (on security) was rewritten after advanced sight of it caused mocking headlines of his doom-portending. I suspect World War Three didn't feature explicitly beforehand, but it does seem he was planning on a more apocalyptic speech before the papers mocked him.

    Yes, that was certainly the explanation that some Leavers started putting about when the text of Cameron's speech was analysed and no WW3 reference was found. But the evidence for this claim remains equally mysterious. Surely such a clumsy and embarrassing volte-face by the Remain campaign would have been newsworthy in itself, yet it was never reported.
    Someone that was a credible source briefed a number of newspapers on behalf of No. 10 that it meant WW3. Craig Oliver or some one similar?

    Point is the 350m a week lie wasn't just something someone in the Leave campaign said - it was a central plank of their campaign. It wouldn't have been emblazoned on their campaign bus and leaflets unless they believed it would sway voters.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TCPoliticalBetting

    "Jonathan Sumption QC, appearing for the Office of the Prime Minister, told the judges: "This case is politics dressed up as law."
    The Government argued that the Lisbon treaty is different from the previously-proposed European Constitution on which Labour promised a popular vote. "


    So the real score is Elite 2 Democracy 0

  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    edited November 2016
    And breaking my map down further:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/4beLZ

    With no toss-ups.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    My ECV prediction is that Clinton wins 279 to 259.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Florida - Opinion Savvy - Sample 853 - 5-6 Nov

    Clinton 48.4 .. Trump 46.4

    http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OS-FL-General-11.7.16.pdf
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
    Come on 619 is a realist, the map will look like this http://www.270towin.com/maps/2GwZW
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/rJg04 I think
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Entertaining read. NSFW or easily offended

    http://thetab.com/uk/sheffield/2016/11/07/interview-paul-joseph-watson-18264
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    This is mine http://www.270towin.com/maps/PJo2k

    I think Trump will do well in the whiter north but lose Florida and I think he'll end up one large state short. (WI could have been MI ) - this is probably the most optimistic scenario I can work out.
  • AllyPally_Rob
    AllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    I'm saying Clinton wins 335 - 203.

    Changes on 2012:

    She wins: North Carolina, Arizona, and Nebraska 2nd congressional district

    He wins: Ohio & Iowa.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
    Come on 619 is a realist, the map will look like this http://www.270towin.com/maps/2GwZW
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/rJg04 I think
    Hmm. A bit different to my own. Fancy a wager on who gets more states right?
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    john_zims said:

    @Barnesian


    'Let's rerun the referendum now that we all know a lot more about the options and issues.'


    Let's re-run the 2010 GE campaign because we now know the Lib Dem lied about scraping tuition fees.

    Didn't realise that the LibDems won the 2010 election, I'd thought they came third.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I think Trump will do well in the whiter north but lose Florida and I think he'll end up one large state short. (WI could have been MI ) - this is probably the most optimistic scenario I can work out. ''

    I agree, and it makes Florida an absolute key state for Trump. Key. Huge.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
    Come on 619 is a realist, the map will look like this http://www.270towin.com/maps/2GwZW
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/rJg04 I think
    Hmm. A bit different to my own. Fancy a wager on who gets more states right?
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/PJkp0 actually, made a bit of a rust belt error.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    Evening all - from a sunny and elegant Milan.

    For once I am staying in a luxurious hotel, which will - in small measure - make up for the hours of tedious meetings I will need to sit through all week.

    If we're going to have to rerun the referendum arguments as a result of this silliness, I do hope the Remain camp will come up with a positive case for the EU as it is and how it will develop and why this is good for Britain.

    I may have missed it, of course, during the actual campaign.

    I also look forward to having a proper Parliamentary debate before Article 50 gets triggered. The country has voted to leave but it did not determine the type of post-departure relationship the UK would have with the EU and it is entirely appropriate for Parliament to debate this. Those who voted leave should not be so scared of their own case that they are not prepared to debate it in the forum where our laws are made.

    As for the US election, I am with US lawyers, who are on both sides of the Trump/Clinton divide. I expect some interesting discussions!
  • Leedsprinter
    Leedsprinter Posts: 94
    OllyT said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yes and no. If I give you £350 today and you promise to give me £80 back next year, I've still given you £350. I may receive £80 today from last year's rebate, but I'm still giving you £350 today, as in the payment registered with my bank would be £350 paid out to Richard Nabavi.

    Nice try, but they also said that, under their proposal, you could spend the £350 on your healthcare plan.

    There's no getting away from this. It was a straightforward and deliberate lie. I agree with Alastair, however, that this isn't a matter for a criminal prosecution, and I don't expect it will go anywhere.
    Of course it won't go anywhere I expect the purpose is to embarrass the Leave campaign. They would love to conveniently bury the issue but it's not going away. Still it's entertaining reading the comments of some of the Brexiteers tying themselves in knots trying so say it wasn't a lie.

    If the Remain campaign believed it to be a lie, they should have put on their leaflets and battlebus a slogan like "We only send £250 million to the EU every week" If they really thought the figure of £350 m was going to swing the vote and lead Britain to disaster, they were duty bound to reveal the true figure and bang that home at every opportunity. They had access to all the figures and Mr Junker, Mr Draghi et all could have made speeches promoting the true figure. The piffling sum of £250 million a week sent to Brussels or whatever could have been the centrepiece of the Remain campaign But they didn't. Now they regret not trumpeting the true cost of the EU to Britain. It's a bit late.
  • 619
    619 Posts: 1,784
    I think Clinton will get between 310-340, depending if she get Florida or not.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
    Come on 619 is a realist, the map will look like this http://www.270towin.com/maps/2GwZW
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/rJg04 I think
    Hmm. A bit different to my own. Fancy a wager on who gets more states right?
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/PJkp0 actually, made a bit of a rust belt error.
    Mine is http://www.270towin.com/maps/VNjpk

    But I am a bit daring on Alaska going Dem...
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Those following the Clinton 330-ups on SPIN might note that the spread is now 17-23.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    This is my latest thoughts on ECV outcome

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/0AGmZ
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited November 2016
    It's Hillary 308*, the Donald 230 for me. Turnout 60.22%

    * If so, that would represent a break-even outcome on my BUY spreadbet of Hillary's ECVs . It could have been better, but it could have been a darn site worse! Food (baked beans, etc) will be on the table!

    Extra bit: It's a shame we couldn't have had a prize competition on the POTUS result ..... presmably the bookies were too tight-fisted to cough up a cash prize.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    ToryJim said:

    This is my latest thoughts on ECV outcome

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/0AGmZ

    I think that is interesting...so you're going for Georgia and not Ohio for HRC

  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    @Pulpstar

    You have made more of an error than you think
    Think Red/Blue.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jobabob said:

    RobD said:

    Jobabob said:

    Has @PlatoSaid graced us with her ECV forecast yet?

    Did she say she would be making one?
    I have no idea. Any news from her?
    I think that the lizards have got her...
  • rpjs
    rpjs Posts: 3,787
    Here's my map http://www.270towin.com/maps/3b626

    And my worst-case scenario http://www.270towin.com/maps/2G0Zo
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Jobabob said:

    @Pulpstar

    You have made more of an error than you think
    Think Red/Blue.

    I suspect Pulps knows exactly what they are [he is?] doing!
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Nate Silver is hinting Trump is doing way better in the rust belt states than corporate raider Romney for obvious reasons.

    I think he'll get Ohio, Pennsylvania Michigan and Iowa therefore (but not Nevada and Colorado). Which means if he gets Florida that takes him to 285 or so.
  • OllyT
    OllyT Posts: 5,050
    tyson said:

    Jobabob said:

    ECV forecasts currently MIA

    @PlatoSaid
    @PaulBedfordshire
    @JennyFreeman
    @MonikerDiCanio
    @StuartTruth

    I don't think taunting the whackjobs is particularly wise. If Trump wins, how could you cope with the gloating?......I couldn't for one
    But if Clinton wins we might get a much deserved period of silence!
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    Jobabob said:

    @Pulpstar

    You have made more of an error than you think
    Think Red/Blue.

    Shh! I am setting a wager on number of states called correctly :-)
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
    Come on 619 is a realist, the map will look like this http://www.270towin.com/maps/2GwZW
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/rJg04 I think
    Hmm. A bit different to my own. Fancy a wager on who gets more states right?
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/PJkp0 actually, made a bit of a rust belt error.
    Mine is http://www.270towin.com/maps/VNjpk

    But I am a bit daring on Alaska going Dem...
    That's mine too....though obviously I'm more conventional on Alaska.....
  • TudorRose
    TudorRose Posts: 1,683
    rpjs said:

    Here's my map http://www.270towin.com/maps/3b626

    And my worst-case scenario http://www.270towin.com/maps/2G0Zo

    I'm going for this;
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Xyxvx

    Popcorn for years....
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    Here is my prediction. I am going for a strong Clinton performance, save for Ohio.

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/3b6w1

    339 clinton ECV
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tyson said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
    Come on 619 is a realist, the map will look like this http://www.270towin.com/maps/2GwZW
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/rJg04 I think
    Hmm. A bit different to my own. Fancy a wager on who gets more states right?
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/PJkp0 actually, made a bit of a rust belt error.
    Mine is http://www.270towin.com/maps/VNjpk

    But I am a bit daring on Alaska going Dem...
    That's mine too....though obviously I'm more conventional on Alaska.....
    I was in two minds over GA. It could go Hillary
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    IMO, it will be like 2004 in reverse. A margin of 2.5%-3.5% in the popular vote will translate into a narrow ECV win, rather than a big win.
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    taffys said:

    Nate Silver is hinting Trump is doing way better in the rust belt states than corporate raider Romney for obvious reasons.

    I think he'll get Ohio, Pennsylvania Michigan and Iowa therefore (but not Nevada and Colorado). Which means if he gets Florida that takes him to 285 or so.

    So what is your prediction then, clearly FL is key to it – call it!
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Jobabob said:

    @Pulpstar

    You have made more of an error than you think
    Think Red/Blue.

    Shh! I am setting a wager on number of states called correctly :-)
    LOL.
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Jobabob said:

    @Pulpstar

    You have made more of an error than you think
    Think Red/Blue.

    I suspect Pulps knows exactly what they are [he is?] doing!

    He is definitely a he. Not sure whether his map was deliberate...
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    "Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    tyson said:

    ToryJim said:

    This is my latest thoughts on ECV outcome

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/0AGmZ

    I think that is interesting...so you're going for Georgia and not Ohio for HRC

    I think both are likely tight. She could get both or neither or have them flipped to the way I have them.
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    Sean_F said:

    IMO, it will be like 2004 in reverse. A margin of 2.5%-3.5% in the popular vote will translate into a narrow ECV win, rather than a big win.

    I think our maps are the same Sean?
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    taffys said:

    Nate Silver is hinting Trump is doing way better in the rust belt states than corporate raider Romney for obvious reasons.

    I think he'll get Ohio, Pennsylvania Michigan and Iowa therefore (but not Nevada and Colorado). Which means if he gets Florida that takes him to 285 or so.

    Don't think he'll get Pennsylvania; Ohio yes.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    ToryJim said:

    tyson said:

    ToryJim said:

    This is my latest thoughts on ECV outcome

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/0AGmZ

    I think that is interesting...so you're going for Georgia and not Ohio for HRC

    I think both are likely tight. She could get both or neither or have them flipped to the way I have them.
    I think Georgia for HRC and Ohio for Trump.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/795675328203124736
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    OllyT said:

    tyson said:

    Jobabob said:

    ECV forecasts currently MIA

    @PlatoSaid
    @PaulBedfordshire
    @JennyFreeman
    @MonikerDiCanio
    @StuartTruth

    I don't think taunting the whackjobs is particularly wise. If Trump wins, how could you cope with the gloating?......I couldn't for one
    But if Clinton wins we might get a much deserved period of silence!
    Yes, I am expecting a StuartTruth style exodus on a grand scale if Hillary wins.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    I see Nate Silvers Senate Prediction going upon and down like a Whore's Drawers.....currently a big swing to the Elephant.....
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Its a shame @Speedy is banned, his sound, measured analysis during the GOP primary process was always a comfort to any serious punter.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Pulpstar, didn't know he was banned...
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. B2, ugh. Where's that Mediterranean climate I was promised?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,686
    Pulpstar said:

    Its a shame @Speedy is banned, his sound, measured analysis during the GOP primary process was always a comfort to any serious punter.

    :smile:
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tyson said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
    Come on 619 is a realist, the map will look like this http://www.270towin.com/maps/2GwZW
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/rJg04 I think
    Hmm. A bit different to my own. Fancy a wager on who gets more states right?
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/PJkp0 actually, made a bit of a rust belt error.
    Mine is http://www.270towin.com/maps/VNjpk

    But I am a bit daring on Alaska going Dem...
    That's mine too....though obviously I'm more conventional on Alaska.....
    Having counted up, I have been to 23/51 states inc DC.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/rJBoy

    My map. I think Ohio for Clinton because the early vote has been much better recently.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    IanB2 said:

    "Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."

    More proof that Global warming exists! (The water melting from the polar icecaps has formed a barrier in the mid-Atlantic to the passage of the Gulf Stream.) You have to remember that Northern England is level with Newfoundland and the Hudson bay.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Yet another example of the Establishment hell bent on overturning the will of the majority.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    nunu said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/rJBoy

    My map. I think Ohio for Clinton because the early vote has been much better recently.

    If you want to back Hillary Clinton to take Ohio, SPIN offer effective odds of 16/9, which are marginally better than the conventional bookies where the best price is currently 7/4.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Its a shame @Speedy is banned, his sound, measured analysis during the GOP primary process was always a comfort to any serious punter.

    :smile:
    It's also a great shame that Pong has left the site after his fall out with SeanT ..... he was one of the best betting brains on PB.com.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    foxinsoxuk said:

    tyson said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
    Come on 619 is a realist, the map will look like this http://www.270towin.com/maps/2GwZW
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/rJg04 I think
    Hmm. A bit different to my own. Fancy a wager on who gets more states right?
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/PJkp0 actually, made a bit of a rust belt error.
    Mine is http://www.270towin.com/maps/VNjpk

    But I am a bit daring on Alaska going Dem...
    That's mine too....though obviously I'm more conventional on Alaska.....
    Having counted up, I have been to 23/51 states inc DC.
    That's a good tally. New York is my favourite place on the planet and I'm off there next week/ though am ashamed to say that Las Vegas gave it a good run for it's money.
  • AllyPally_Rob
    AllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    IanB2 said:

    "Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."

    "The chilliest winter on record"...I can't remember a year when the Daily Express hasn't made this prediction!
  • PrinceofTaranto
    PrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    I see Hilary has just cancelled her New York firework display tomorrow night.Does she know her campaign is fizzling out.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Putney, aye. Hopefully he'll come back.
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Out on a limb but if there were a PB competition I would be saying Clinton 359 Trump 179
    with Trump winning Iowa and Ohio , Clinton winning Arizona , Georgia and South Carolina and other marginal states .
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject
    FL #earlyvote Race change vs 2012 via @electionsmith
    Afr-Am +70.6K (+9.2%)
    Hisp +453.8K (+86.9%)
    White +900K (+27.2%)
    Other +121.5K (+48.3%)
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    IanB2 said:

    "Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."

    "The chilliest winter on record"...I can't remember a year when the Daily Express hasn't made this prediction!
    Has the Mail made its usual forecasts? They seem to be the one that has blizzards every week from November to May.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    MarkSenior said:

    Out on a limb but if there were a PB competition I would be saying Clinton 359 Trump 179
    with Trump winning Iowa and Ohio , Clinton winning Arizona , Georgia and South Carolina and other marginal states .


    South Carolina?

  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited November 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Roger said:

    Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.

    A fact that was known to be untrue.

    The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.

    As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.

    Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.

    Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
    'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tyson said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    tyson said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ

    If anyone was wondering what my map looks like.

    Here is 619s map http://www.270towin.com/maps/x72Og
    Come on 619 is a realist, the map will look like this http://www.270towin.com/maps/2GwZW
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/rJg04 I think
    Hmm. A bit different to my own. Fancy a wager on who gets more states right?
    http://www.270towin.com/maps/PJkp0 actually, made a bit of a rust belt error.
    Mine is http://www.270towin.com/maps/VNjpk

    But I am a bit daring on Alaska going Dem...
    That's mine too....though obviously I'm more conventional on Alaska.....
    Having counted up, I have been to 23/51 states inc DC.
    That's a good tally. New York is my favourite place on the planet and I'm off there next week/ though am ashamed to say that Las Vegas gave it a good run for it's money.
    I love the West. New Mexico is my favourite, but I would love to get to Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and Alaska. They are on my to do list, but then there is Canada to cover too.
  • Jobabob
    Jobabob Posts: 3,807
    PrinceofTaranto said:

    I see Hilary has just cancelled her New York firework display tomorrow night.Does she know her campaign is fizzling out.

    Another one who could do with posting his map
  • MattW
    MattW Posts: 28,302
    edited November 2016
    IanB2 said:

    "Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."

    Does that mean we might get Maple Syrup if it lasts until spring:-)

    (Motorists not knowing how to drive got themselves stuck, more like.)
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    tyson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Out on a limb but if there were a PB competition I would be saying Clinton 359 Trump 179
    with Trump winning Iowa and Ohio , Clinton winning Arizona , Georgia and South Carolina and other marginal states .


    South Carolina?

    Very few polls here and the last couple have been pretty close . A long shot but needed to win a PB competition
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Hillary's final appeal. It's so soft focus it looks like they used the old trick of vaseline on the lens.

    https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/795677947088670721
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    weejonnie said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    IanB2 said:

    "Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."

    "The chilliest winter on record"...I can't remember a year when the Daily Express hasn't made this prediction!
    Has the Mail made its usual forecasts? They seem to be the one that has blizzards every week from November to May.
    Brr-brr-brexit. The winters were colder before we joined the EU.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    PrinceofTaranto said:

    I see Hilary has just cancelled her New York firework display tomorrow night.Does she know her campaign is fizzling out.

    Probably - I mean she is only leading in the polls and has far more avenues open to the White House - an excellent time to cancel a celebration.

    Unless Democrat polling is not as bullish as public polling. OR she wants to persuade Democrat voters that they've got to go out and vote again.

    Perhaps she has pneumonia - again.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    RobD said:

    Oh dear, Trump is sunk- Telegraph reporting Rees-Mogg has withdrawn his support :D

    Fear not, a representative (albeit rejected by the electorate) of the most successful political party in the universe (™ PB Tories) has put her shoulder to the wheel.

    'Scot jets into the States to show her support for Donald Trump

    Donald Trump will make America "better", a former Scottish Conservative general election candidate has said.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zguzqjs
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Its a shame @Speedy is banned, his sound, measured analysis during the GOP primary process was always a comfort to any serious punter.

    :smile:
    He was seriously Sid and Doris but I didn't know he was banned. They ought to have a sidebar with the name of banned posters
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    My prediction, boringly similar to Obama 2012:

    image

    The days are over when you got Nixon 520/ McGovern 17 only for the Democrats to win the next time followed by Reagan 489 / Carter 49
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Useful closing time indicator http://www.270towin.com/closing.php
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Roger said:

    Jobabob said:

    Roger said:

    Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.

    A fact that was known to be untrue.

    The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.

    As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.

    Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.

    Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
    'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
    I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.

    I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    National - Angus Reid - Sample 1,151 - 1-4 Nov

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 44

    http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016.11.04-US-Horserace.pdf
  • Essexit
    Essexit Posts: 1,966
    tyson said:

    Roger said:

    Jobabob said:

    Roger said:

    Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.

    A fact that was known to be untrue.

    The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.

    As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.

    Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.

    Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
    'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
    I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.

    I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
    Is your friend on LSD?
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    JackW said:

    National - Angus Reid - Sample 1,151 - 1-4 Nov

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 44

    http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016.11.04-US-Horserace.pdf


    The polls are herding.......

  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    tyson said:

    JackW said:

    National - Angus Reid - Sample 1,151 - 1-4 Nov

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 44

    http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016.11.04-US-Horserace.pdf


    The polls are herding.......

    The day the polls herded? :D
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Arizona - Data Orbital - Sample 550 - 4-6 Nov

    Clinton 47 .. Trump 44

    https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/AZ_Statewide__LivePoll__Toplines_11_6.pdf
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Tyson, that's rather sad. People can see the same evidence and hear the same arguments but come to different (and valid) conclusions. That's the whole principle behind democracy and electoral choice, after all.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Putney, aye. Hopefully he'll come back.

    I doubt it very much unless SeanT leaves or gets suspended.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Looking at the senate, there seems to have been a marked swing towards the republicans in the past few days. I know that Trump isn't as popular as a generic republican senator - but is it possible that the Senate has coat tails?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Putney, it's a bit depressing when things like this happen, but thanks for the response nevertheless.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    Arizona - Data Orbital - Sample 550 - 4-6 Nov

    Clinton 47 .. Trump 44

    https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/AZ_Statewide__LivePoll__Toplines_11_6.pdf

    What????
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    tyson said:

    Roger said:

    Jobabob said:

    Roger said:

    Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.

    A fact that was known to be untrue.

    The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.

    As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.

    Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.

    Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
    'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
    I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.

    I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
    That's the spirit Tyson! Anyone who disagrees with you is not only wrong but evil, probably an un-person. Although - just wondering - maybe that's the sort of thing your friend is talking about who says that Britain feels like the last days of the Weimar Republic? (It doesn't, by the way. Not in Manchester, anyway).
  • TudorRose
    TudorRose Posts: 1,683
    tyson said:

    Roger said:

    Jobabob said:

    Roger said:

    Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.

    A fact that was known to be untrue.

    The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.

    As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.

    Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.

    Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
    'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
    I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.

    I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
    If they've read your posts on here then they've probably already deleted you!
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    Honestly I think it will greatly depend on turnout tomorrow, which is why the Clinton campaign has been keen to make out it's over already. If turnout on the day is high;

    image
    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com


    Hence Dem's Michigan or bust.

    Or if turnout is low;

    image
    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    tyson said:

    JackW said:

    National - Angus Reid - Sample 1,151 - 1-4 Nov

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 44

    http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016.11.04-US-Horserace.pdf


    The polls are herding.......

    The day the polls herded? :D
    Well what we need is someone to produce a poll really different and this time publish it.

    Surely after the fiasco of GE2015 and Referendum 2016, the pollsters cannot be doing the same thing again.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Arizona - Data Orbital - Sample 550 - 4-6 Nov

    Clinton 47 .. Trump 44

    https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/AZ_Statewide__LivePoll__Toplines_11_6.pdf

    What????
    They've done it again .... Ggrrrrrr . :naughty:

    Reverse those numbers ....
  • Leedsprinter
    Leedsprinter Posts: 94
    Essexit said:

    tyson said:

    Roger said:

    Jobabob said:

    Roger said:

    Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.

    A fact that was known to be untrue.

    The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.

    As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.

    Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.

    Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
    'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
    I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.

    I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
    Is your friend on LSD?
    It's true, though. Inflation is out of hand. Expected to soar to 4% next year. I've bought a wheelbarrow for my wages. The irony is that only way we can get enough skilled men to build the death camps when we leave the EU is to invade Poland.
This discussion has been closed.

Categories