politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One day to go and Betfair makes Hillary an 83% chance but the
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The EU is on an unstoppable mission to become the U.S.E. If we were ever to be so foolish as to get back in we'd be assimilated. Fully. The very grief and wailing and gnashing that is manifest in our Brexit decision is to me fairly solid evidence that we voted to get out at just about the last practical opportunity. A Remain vote would have sealed our future as part of a U.S.E. We'll never rejoin.rcs1000 said:
It would not require Schengen. The treaties explicitly recognise the CTA. It would take a new Treaty - which requires the agreement of Ireland - to derecognise the CTA.HYUFD said:
To rejoin after Brexit would require the UK to join the eurozone and Schengen, the UK may eventually join EFTA, which it was a member of before it joined the EU but I cannot see it joining the EU again once Article 50 has been invoked and the terms of departure agreedPhilip_Thompson said:
When? We are never going to rejoin.DecrepitJohnL said:
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.ThreeQuidder said:Europhiles showing how much they have learned...
https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
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We did have a say. We agreed. Can you recall a single example of major treaty change that occurred over the opposition of a British Government, Conservative or Labour? It's an irritating habit of mainstream politicians of my own party and others to vaguely blame Brussels for doing stuff that we could have opposed but actually supported.SquareRoot said:
they may well have been and I expect we were told we would get a say, which we never got and its why we are where we are now.OldKingCole said:
One of us has selective amnesia. I’m an OAP and i’m sure that further developments were envisaged, and talked about in 1975.0 -
True. At the extremes, there ought to be some mechanism to ensure the a judge doesn't go completely rogue and start more-or-less making up the law, but as with all such checks, its virtue would lie in not being used.SouthamObserver said:No surprise to see some on the right calling for "democratic" oversight of judges because a court decision has been handed down that they do not like. The far left believes in this too. Just another case of the two wings circling to join each other.
In contrast to the US, parliament can always change legislation - and the constitution if necessary - to correct a situation they find objectionable. That should always be the remedy to adverse decisions.0 -
Ha, ha. Yes, the lady in my local corner shop was regaling me with the same grievance when I handed one over yesterday.OldKingCole said:
Apparently once it’s been folded it doesn’t sit in a till well, either. So the landlord of my local tells me.Morris_Dancer said:Got my first new fiver. Absolutely rubbish. Small, feels like Monopoly money. Humbug. Whoever thought it was a good idea is a jester.
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black share is up to 12.7% now but it increases after today.brokenwheel said:
I really doubt it, Souls to the Polls Sunday was last Sunday. Only a few counties were open this Sunday as it is not a mandatory voting day. Of the ones that were many are not high AA areas. The total early vote this Sunday will be much smaller than other days judging by previous elections. It's not going to have an impact on the proportion of vote.619 said:
that wasnt counting sundays soul to the polls. I imagine that raw figure went up massivelybrokenwheel said:FPT
Early voting was shorter in 2012. There were 4.5M early voters then, we look to be well over 6M now so it would be hard for the black vote in raw numbers to decrease over 2012 unless their vote had completely collapsed. However AA proportion of the vote has decreased, there are many more whites than 2012 too. So no, Hillary only just overtaking the 2012 vote in raw numbers is not good.619 said:0 -
Well I'm told, despite all appearances to the contrary, that market is suspended.peter_from_putney said:
Wow, at its mid-point, Sporting's spread for Hillary is more than 30 ECVs ahead of 538.com..... there's brave! That said, America is still asleep, in the main. Maybe not in Maine, but in the main.Richard_Nabavi said:SPIN is moving...
Clinton up to 322-332 (Spreadex much lower at 308-323)
The SPIN Clinton 330-up spread is now up to 20.5-26.5. That's a Sell according to all three of the models I've been tracking (538, NYT and HuffPost). But DYOR: you'd lose your shirt if Hillary somehow managed to nick Texas.0 -
Might be right, might be wrong. Need to look at all the averages.taffys said:
And the reason that poll is wrong is....???JackW said:National Tracker - IBD/TIPP - Sample 1,026 - 3-6 Nov
Clinton 40.7 .. Trump 43.1
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/0 -
When I was campaigning for leave I got votes by the shedload from people who weren't even born in 1974, and plenty from people whose parents weren't even in this country then. A lot of people haven't twigged why the referendum happened in the first place. Which mainstream political party would want to saddle themselves with the headaches Major and Cameron had. Cam hoped put the Eurosceptics back in their box for a few years. Mrs May sees the chance to lance the boil once and for all. Consider the Euro. There was a project fear campaign to get us in when it launched. Even before the referendum that seemed plain loopy and unthinkable. We'll drift away and the EU will be like the USA, a faraway country we observe withSquareRoot said:
they may well have been and I expect we were told we would get a say, which we never got and its why we are where we are now.OldKingCole said:
One of us has selective amnesia. I’m an OAP and i’m sure that further developments were envisaged, and talked about in 1975.SquareRoot said:
NO they were enthusiasts for the single market ie the Common Market. They were lied to by successive Govts of both colours as to what it meant.Sean_F said:
Most of today's pensioners were enthusiasts for the EU in 1975.edmundintokyo said:
Disagree, think about the demographics.Philip_Thompson said:
When? We are never going to rejoin.DecrepitJohnL said:
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.ThreeQuidder said:Europhiles showing how much they have learned...
https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
detached amusement. And occasionally cut off by fog.0 -
Finally I've been able to place a sell for a slightly smaller stake than I would have liked.AlastairMeeks said:
Well I'm told, despite all appearances to the contrary, that market is suspended.peter_from_putney said:
Wow, at its mid-point, Sporting's spread for Hillary is more than 30 ECVs ahead of 538.com..... there's brave! That said, America is still asleep, in the main. Maybe not in Maine, but in the main.Richard_Nabavi said:SPIN is moving...
Clinton up to 322-332 (Spreadex much lower at 308-323)
The SPIN Clinton 330-up spread is now up to 20.5-26.5. That's a Sell according to all three of the models I've been tracking (538, NYT and HuffPost). But DYOR: you'd lose your shirt if Hillary somehow managed to nick Texas.0 -
The poison in the well built up over time.NickPalmer said:
We did have a say. We agreed. Can you recall a single example of major treaty change that occurred over the opposition of a British Government, Conservative or Labour? It's an irritating habit of mainstream politicians of my own party and others to vaguely blame Brussels for doing stuff that we could have opposed but actually supported.SquareRoot said:
they may well have been and I expect we were told we would get a say, which we never got and its why we are where we are now.OldKingCole said:
One of us has selective amnesia. I’m an OAP and i’m sure that further developments were envisaged, and talked about in 1975.0 -
I don't disagree with that, the British system works much better than more activist or political judicial environments. The assumption I made was that a judge would be a barrister of some experience to even be considered for the role, therefore they would not have too much of a problem going back to their chambers when their term finished.NickPalmer said:
I understand your reasoning, but there are severe personal career difficulties in asking people to sign up for a single term and then go away. What do they do next? As with former MPs, who have no obvious next move when they lose, they may well be in middle age and unable easily to take up a new profession. (I was a translator as well, which saved my bacon)Sandpit said:
Yes, judges standing for re-election is a problem. The way to elect judges would be for a single term only, after which they would have to sit out the next term.
I think the British system of independent judges expected to rule according to the law and the facts works pretty well in practice, however annoyed we get when an individual decision goes against what we want, and we should oppose attempts to change it to a more populist approach.
Glad that you managed to find useful work after Parliament, I imagine that there must be a fair number of former MPs who are not so fortunate? Elections like those of 1997 or 2010 hand out a lot of P45s at the same time, although maybe the more professional politicians find it easier to head back to the wonk factory or bag carrying role from which they came?0 -
The Republican take on this doesn't make for a happy America if Hillary Clinton wins:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/7955838669374423040 -
LA Times lite ... Clinton only +3 with women and Trump +7 with married women. Clinton too low with Hispanics and Trump too high with millennials.taffys said:
And the reason that poll is wrong is....???JackW said:National Tracker - IBD/TIPP - Sample 1,026 - 3-6 Nov
Clinton 40.7 .. Trump 43.1
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
Clinton is +1 in the H2H.0 -
Bullshit. We didn't support Lisbon. A referendum on it would have sunk in flames. Gordon Brown and your weasel party supported it - and ratified it in secret with no popular vote. It's precisely this sort of mendacity about the last 40 years that led us directly to Brexit.NickPalmer said:
We did have a say. We agreed. Can you recall a single example of major treaty change that occurred over the opposition of a British Government, Conservative or Labour? It's an irritating habit of mainstream politicians of my own party and others to vaguely blame Brussels for doing stuff that we could have opposed but actually supported.SquareRoot said:
they may well have been and I expect we were told we would get a say, which we never got and its why we are where we are now.OldKingCole said:
One of us has selective amnesia. I’m an OAP and i’m sure that further developments were envisaged, and talked about in 1975.
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It has Clinton winning 65+ by 2 points.taffys said:
And the reason that poll is wrong is....???JackW said:National Tracker - IBD/TIPP - Sample 1,026 - 3-6 Nov
Clinton 40.7 .. Trump 43.1
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/0 -
The Gold Standard.JackW said:
LA Times lite ... Clinton only +3 with women and Trump +7 with married women. Clinton too low with Hispanics and Trump too high with millennials.taffys said:
And the reason that poll is wrong is....???JackW said:National Tracker - IBD/TIPP - Sample 1,026 - 3-6 Nov
Clinton 40.7 .. Trump 43.1
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
Clinton is +1 in the H2H.
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-tracking-poll-most-accurate-presidential-poll/0 -
I prefer gold guineas but will accept sovereigns as a last resort ....david_herdson said:
I believe Jack W still demands payment in sovereigns.SouthamObserver said:
You should ask for your money back. Boom, boom.Morris_Dancer said:Got my first new fiver. Absolutely rubbish. Small, feels like Monopoly money. Humbug. Whoever thought it was a good idea is a jester.
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Thanks.Richard_Nabavi said:
It is made up at the final ECV figure less 330, or 0, whichever is the higher.TheWhiteRabbit said:How does the "SPIN Clinton 330-up spread" work?
So if you sell at the current 20.5 you'd lose just half a point if she gets 351. You'd win 10.5 points if she gets 340 ECVs. You'd win a fixed 20.5 points if she gets 330 or any lower number.
Conversely, your potential losses if she does better than 350 are uncapped.
And to think they say that spread betting is confusing...
Having said that there are plenty of traditional bets with too many features for comfort.0 -
Whomever wins tomorrow, many big media reputations are in tatters.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3912164/Latest-Wikileaks-dump-8-000-new-emails-shows-DNC-prepared-anchors-Wolf-Blitzer-Jake-Tapper-interviews-Trump-Cruz.html0 -
Very much a leading question, though.AlastairMeeks said:The Republican take on this doesn't make for a happy America if Hillary Clinton wins:
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So it was out by a margin of error last time!MonikerDiCanio said:
The Gold Standard.JackW said:
LA Times lite ... Clinton only +3 with women and Trump +7 with married women. Clinton too low with Hispanics and Trump too high with millennials.taffys said:
And the reason that poll is wrong is....???JackW said:National Tracker - IBD/TIPP - Sample 1,026 - 3-6 Nov
Clinton 40.7 .. Trump 43.1
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
Clinton is +1 in the H2H.
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-tracking-poll-most-accurate-presidential-poll/
Again, why get so excited over one poll?
Also, the fact they mention the Nov surprise when it wouldn't' have impacted on their field work makes me... Pause0 -
This article on the final early voting figures for North Carolina is very negative about Clinton's prospects there, based on the fact that the Democrat lead is only 9.8%, compared with 16% in 2012:
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting-results-2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-votes-cast-turnout-up-down-increase-decrease-who-winning-republicans-democrats/0 -
If Trump loses, then I think he could have won by doing exactly the same - outwith the whole "Build the wall" thing.
Trade o
Muslims o
Social conservative pivot o
Iraq o
"Hillary in jail" o
Mexico/Wall x0 -
I'm looking forward to my Rasmussen lunchtime chuckle .... especially today ....
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Interesting, though the composition of the Unaffiliated would be useful.Chris said:This article on the final early voting figures for North Carolina is very negative about Clinton's prospects there, based on the fact that the Democrat lead is only 9.8%, compared with 16% in 2012:
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting-results-2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-votes-cast-turnout-up-down-increase-decrease-who-winning-republicans-democrats/0 -
Do you have an EC projection from the deepest bowels of charming Sussex ?PlatoSaid said:Whomever wins tomorrow, many big media reputations are in tatters.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3912164/Latest-Wikileaks-dump-8-000-new-emails-shows-DNC-prepared-anchors-Wolf-Blitzer-Jake-Tapper-interviews-Trump-Cruz.html0 -
I wonder if India will ask Theresa if they could please have Vijay Malliya back? He's a shareholder in Kingfisher and the Force India F1 team among other interests, and is wanted in India - his business partner is already in jail for corruption. Malliya has been in the UK since India cancelled his passport a year ago.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, as I say a trade deal with India would be on their terms. Watching Liam Fox and Theresa May walking together down the aeroplane steps to the tarmac in New Delhi, and reading and watching the coverage of the trip, does not indicate they see anything peripheral about a deal.MaxPB said:
Don't be ridiculous. You're becoming like a headless chicken. A trade deal with India of peripheral importance and India doesn't really want any trade deals given their addiction to tariff income.SouthamObserver said:
There is a lot of talk about not giving our negotiating strategy with the EU27 away in advance. In India we are doing the opposite. The message is "Please, Please, Please do a deal with us. Any deal. Please." It's no surprise, of course. We do need a deal a whole lot more than the Indians do. So, if we are to get one, it will be pretty much on their terms. See Iceland and China.Theuniondivvie said:Don't panic Leavers, it's only going to be a very few, very rich brown people.
https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/7955646554354810880 -
I stand corrected.JackW said:
I prefer gold guineas but will accept sovereigns as a last resort ....david_herdson said:
I believe Jack W still demands payment in sovereigns.SouthamObserver said:
You should ask for your money back. Boom, boom.Morris_Dancer said:Got my first new fiver. Absolutely rubbish. Small, feels like Monopoly money. Humbug. Whoever thought it was a good idea is a jester.
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We’ve had several elections for MEP’s, we’ve had several General Elections where the EU was an issue (often not a major one, I concede).SquareRoot said:
they may well have been and I expect we were told we would get a say, which we never got and its why we are where we are now.OldKingCole said:
One of us has selective amnesia. I’m an OAP and i’m sure that further developments were envisaged, and talked about in 1975.SquareRoot said:
NO they were enthusiasts for the single market ie the Common Market. They were lied to by successive Govts of both colours as to what it meant.Sean_F said:
Most of today's pensioners were enthusiasts for the EU in 1975.edmundintokyo said:
Disagree, think about the demographics.Philip_Thompson said:
When? We are never going to rejoin.DecrepitJohnL said:
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.ThreeQuidder said:Europhiles showing how much they have learned...
https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
Now we’re going to have to rejig thousands of commercial and professional arrangements, and probably end up with a lower standard of living.0 -
White fivers?david_herdson said:
I stand corrected.JackW said:
I prefer gold guineas but will accept sovereigns as a last resort ....david_herdson said:
I believe Jack W still demands payment in sovereigns.SouthamObserver said:
You should ask for your money back. Boom, boom.Morris_Dancer said:Got my first new fiver. Absolutely rubbish. Small, feels like Monopoly money. Humbug. Whoever thought it was a good idea is a jester.
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The Republican take on this doesn't make for a happy America if Hillary Clinton wins:
Is it any wonder? When polls are being discussed on here, identity is all.0 -
Spot on. A referendum on Lisbon would have lanced the boil at an earlier stage and in all likelihood led to changes being made to the UK's relationship with the EU which would have meant avoiding the mess we now find ourselves inPatrick said:
Bullshit. We didn't support Lisbon. A referendum on it would have sunk in flames. Gordon Brown and your weasel party supported it - and ratified it in secret with no popular vote. It's precisely this sort of mendacity about the last 40 years that led us directly to Brexit.NickPalmer said:
We did have a say. We agreed. Can you recall a single example of major treaty change that occurred over the opposition of a British Government, Conservative or Labour? It's an irritating habit of mainstream politicians of my own party and others to vaguely blame Brussels for doing stuff that we could have opposed but actually supported.SquareRoot said:
they may well have been and I expect we were told we would get a say, which we never got and its why we are where we are now.OldKingCole said:
One of us has selective amnesia. I’m an OAP and i’m sure that further developments were envisaged, and talked about in 1975.
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What say did I have for Brown singing the Lisbon treaty.. SWET FECK ALLNickPalmer said:
We did have a say. We agreed. Can you recall a single example of major treaty change that occurred over the opposition of a British Government, Conservative or Labour? It's an irritating habit of mainstream politicians of my own party and others to vaguely blame Brussels for doing stuff that we could have opposed but actually supported.SquareRoot said:
they may well have been and I expect we were told we would get a say, which we never got and its why we are where we are now.OldKingCole said:
One of us has selective amnesia. I’m an OAP and i’m sure that further developments were envisaged, and talked about in 1975.0 -
I don't really understand why NC is looking so Dem-winnable in the first place. I know the demographics are moving towards the Dems over time but it's not hugely hispanic, so what is it that Obama couldn't do in 2012 that Hillary is going to be able to do in 2016? If there's no particular reason why it should swing faster than anywhere else but the state polling says it will, the best guess would be that the polling's wrong.Chris said:This article on the final early voting figures for North Carolina is very negative about Clinton's prospects there, based on the fact that the Democrat lead is only 9.8%, compared with 16% in 2012:
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting-results-2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-votes-cast-turnout-up-down-increase-decrease-who-winning-republicans-democrats/0 -
That looks about right to me.JackW said:Latest Fox News Projection & Map :
Clinton 283 ..Trump 192 .. Toss-Up 63
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race
I'd make 2 adjustments, move NC from lean Hillary to TCTC. Move Nevada from TCTC to lean Hillary. That takes her total down to 274.0 -
Even as an aristo I'd prefer you to stand rather kneel when replying to my missives ....david_herdson said:
I stand corrected.JackW said:
I prefer gold guineas but will accept sovereigns as a last resort ....david_herdson said:
I believe Jack W still demands payment in sovereigns.SouthamObserver said:
You should ask for your money back. Boom, boom.Morris_Dancer said:Got my first new fiver. Absolutely rubbish. Small, feels like Monopoly money. Humbug. Whoever thought it was a good idea is a jester.
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The Republicans have done an excellent voter suppression/disenfranchisement job in NC. Reducing voting stations, purging voters from the roles.Chris said:This article on the final early voting figures for North Carolina is very negative about Clinton's prospects there, based on the fact that the Democrat lead is only 9.8%, compared with 16% in 2012:
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting-results-2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-votes-cast-turnout-up-down-increase-decrease-who-winning-republicans-democrats/
Fortunately Racism is over so the Voting Rights Act is now unconstitutional so no one needs to worry.0 -
http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/619 said:
Interesting, though the composition of the Unaffiliated would be useful.Chris said:This article on the final early voting figures for North Carolina is very negative about Clinton's prospects there, based on the fact that the Democrat lead is only 9.8%, compared with 16% in 2012:
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting-results-2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-votes-cast-turnout-up-down-increase-decrease-who-winning-republicans-democrats/0 -
No surprise. Tapper is an especially irritating sanctimonious fraud.PlatoSaid said:Whomever wins tomorrow, many big media reputations are in tatters.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3912164/Latest-Wikileaks-dump-8-000-new-emails-shows-DNC-prepared-anchors-Wolf-Blitzer-Jake-Tapper-interviews-Trump-Cruz.html0 -
I think the Lisbon Treaty betrayal was the final straw for many EU waverers.TheKingofLangley said:
Spot on. A referendum on Lisbon would have lanced the boil at an earlier stage and in all likelihood led to changes being made to the UK's relationship with the EU which would have meant avoiding the mess we now find ourselves inPatrick said:
Bullshit. We didn't support Lisbon. A referendum on it would have sunk in flames. Gordon Brown and your weasel party supported it - and ratified it in secret with no popular vote. It's precisely this sort of mendacity about the last 40 years that led us directly to Brexit.NickPalmer said:
We did have a say. We agreed. Can you recall a single example of major treaty change that occurred over the opposition of a British Government, Conservative or Labour? It's an irritating habit of mainstream politicians of my own party and others to vaguely blame Brussels for doing stuff that we could have opposed but actually supported.SquareRoot said:
they may well have been and I expect we were told we would get a say, which we never got and its why we are where we are now.OldKingCole said:
One of us has selective amnesia. I’m an OAP and i’m sure that further developments were envisaged, and talked about in 1975.0 -
And don't forget that Florida's 29 ECVs all go either one way or the other. Spread betting can be scary at the best of times, but the US ECVs are about the scariest thing possible to make a spread bet on - even Mike has cashed out!TheWhiteRabbit said:
Thanks.Richard_Nabavi said:
It is made up at the final ECV figure less 330, or 0, whichever is the higher.TheWhiteRabbit said:How does the "SPIN Clinton 330-up spread" work?
So if you sell at the current 20.5 you'd lose just half a point if she gets 351. You'd win 10.5 points if she gets 340 ECVs. You'd win a fixed 20.5 points if she gets 330 or any lower number.
Conversely, your potential losses if she does better than 350 are uncapped.
And to think they say that spread betting is confusing...
Having said that there are plenty of traditional bets with too many features for comfort.0 -
Interesting that both sides have the same proportion of people who think that the vote is being rigged though.AlastairMeeks said:The Republican take on this doesn't make for a happy America if Hillary Clinton wins:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/7955838669374423040 -
'White registered unaffiliated voters saw an overall increase of 41 percent, but among suburban white registered unaffiliated voters, it was an increase of 57 percent.Alistair said:
http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/619 said:
Interesting, though the composition of the Unaffiliated would be useful.Chris said:This article on the final early voting figures for North Carolina is very negative about Clinton's prospects there, based on the fact that the Democrat lead is only 9.8%, compared with 16% in 2012:
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting-results-2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-votes-cast-turnout-up-down-increase-decrease-who-winning-republicans-democrats/
Among black unaffiliated voters, who are typically more from the Millennial generation, it was again suburban black unaffiliated voters showing the largest increase. '
If Clinton is winning suburban whites, this would be very good.0 -
NC is a mixed bag, from hillbilly to high tech university industries in the research triangle. Heading the way of GA and VA as the New South rather than the Old South.edmundintokyo said:
I don't really understand why NC is looking so Dem-winnable in the first place. I know the demographics are moving towards the Dems over time but it's not hugely hispanic, so what is it that Obama couldn't do in 2012 that Hillary is going to be able to do in 2016? If there's no particular reason why it should swing faster than anywhere else but the state polling says it will, the best guess would be that the polling's wrong.Chris said:This article on the final early voting figures for North Carolina is very negative about Clinton's prospects there, based on the fact that the Democrat lead is only 9.8%, compared with 16% in 2012:
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting-results-2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-votes-cast-turnout-up-down-increase-decrease-who-winning-republicans-democrats/0 -
For me it was that plus our 5 year trade pivot away from the EU, down from ca. 55% of all trade to ca. 43% at the moment and falling. In 10 years we will all be wondering what the fuss was about.SimonStClare said:
I think the Lisbon Treaty betrayal was the final straw for many EU waverers.TheKingofLangley said:
Spot on. A referendum on Lisbon would have lanced the boil at an earlier stage and in all likelihood led to changes being made to the UK's relationship with the EU which would have meant avoiding the mess we now find ourselves inPatrick said:
Bullshit. We didn't support Lisbon. A referendum on it would have sunk in flames. Gordon Brown and your weasel party supported it - and ratified it in secret with no popular vote. It's precisely this sort of mendacity about the last 40 years that led us directly to Brexit.NickPalmer said:
We did have a say. We agreed. Can you recall a single example of major treaty change that occurred over the opposition of a British Government, Conservative or Labour? It's an irritating habit of mainstream politicians of my own party and others to vaguely blame Brussels for doing stuff that we could have opposed but actually supported.SquareRoot said:
they may well have been and I expect we were told we would get a say, which we never got and its why we are where we are now.OldKingCole said:
One of us has selective amnesia. I’m an OAP and i’m sure that further developments were envisaged, and talked about in 1975.0 -
My rule 1 is always understand what bet you're making.Sandpit said:
And don't forget that Florida's 29 ECVs all go either one way or the other. Spread betting can be scary at the best of times, but the US ECVs are about the scariest thing possible to make a spread bet on - even Mike has cashed out!TheWhiteRabbit said:
Thanks.Richard_Nabavi said:
It is made up at the final ECV figure less 330, or 0, whichever is the higher.TheWhiteRabbit said:How does the "SPIN Clinton 330-up spread" work?
So if you sell at the current 20.5 you'd lose just half a point if she gets 351. You'd win 10.5 points if she gets 340 ECVs. You'd win a fixed 20.5 points if she gets 330 or any lower number.
Conversely, your potential losses if she does better than 350 are uncapped.
And to think they say that spread betting is confusing...
Having said that there are plenty of traditional bets with too many features for comfort.0 -
Bingo. Immigration/FoM was low on my list of reasons for being a Leaver but when Remainers say how terrible it is that we're being stripped of our 'rights' to free movement it shows how out of touch they are with most people who voted Leave.weejonnie said:
It is, however, the relatively poor manual workers who cant really afford to drive 1000 miles to enjoy a beer, ski down the Alps and enjoy the vistas that have lost their jobs.DecrepitJohnL said:
Which does happen, both here and in America: here is your redundancy notice and you must spend the time training your outsourced replacements.weejonnie said:
Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.edmundintokyo said:
That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.Essexit said:
Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.edmundintokyo said:
Disagree, think about the demographics.Philip_Thompson said:
When? We are never going to rejoin.DecrepitJohnL said:
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.ThreeQuidder said:Europhiles showing how much they have learned...
https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.
But I suppose that doesn't matter to most on this website.0 -
I didn't realise that Godwin (of the eponymous Law) had already weighed in regarding Trump last year:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/12/14/sure-call-trump-a-nazi-just-make-sure-you-know-what-youre-talking-about/0 -
To be fair to @NickPalmer, he did say British Governments as opposed to British people - and the government of 2007 were all for Lisbon even if the people were not. Lancing the boil with a referendum then, would probably have applied enough braking to prevent the Brexit vote nine years later.SquareRoot said:
What say did I have for Brown singing the Lisbon treaty.. SWET FECK ALLNickPalmer said:
We did have a say. We agreed. Can you recall a single example of major treaty change that occurred over the opposition of a British Government, Conservative or Labour? It's an irritating habit of mainstream politicians of my own party and others to vaguely blame Brussels for doing stuff that we could have opposed but actually supported.SquareRoot said:
they may well have been and I expect we were told we would get a say, which we never got and its why we are where we are now.OldKingCole said:
One of us has selective amnesia. I’m an OAP and i’m sure that further developments were envisaged, and talked about in 1975.0 -
I was merely pointing out that wad HYUFD said was factually incorrect. Unless the treaties change, which requires unanimity, then any joiner can commit to either Schengen or the CTA.Patrick said:
The EU is on an unstoppable mission to become the U.S.E. If we were ever to be so foolish as to get back in we'd be assimilated. Fully. The very grief and wailing and gnashing that is manifest in our Brexit decision is to me fairly solid evidence that we voted to get out at just about the last practical opportunity. A Remain vote would have sealed our future as part of a U.S.E. We'll never rejoin.rcs1000 said:
It would not require Schengen. The treaties explicitly recognise the CTA. It would take a new Treaty - which requires the agreement of Ireland - to derecognise the CTA.HYUFD said:
To rejoin after Brexit would require the UK to join the eurozone and Schengen, the UK may eventually join EFTA, which it was a member of before it joined the EU but I cannot see it joining the EU again once Article 50 has been invoked and the terms of departure agreedPhilip_Thompson said:
When? We are never going to rejoin.DecrepitJohnL said:
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.ThreeQuidder said:Europhiles showing how much they have learned...
https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.0 -
Fair point. Although I suspect that many such Leavers didn’t realise how it would actually affect them n the longer term.Essexit said:
Bingo. Immigration/FoM was low on my list of reasons for being a Leaver but when Remainers say how terrible it is that we're being stripped of our 'rights' to free movement it shows how out of touch they are with most people who voted Leave.weejonnie said:
It is, however, the relatively poor manual workers who cant really afford to drive 1000 miles to enjoy a beer, ski down the Alps and enjoy the vistas that have lost their jobs.DecrepitJohnL said:
Which does happen, both here and in America: here is your redundancy notice and you must spend the time training your outsourced replacements.weejonnie said:
Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.edmundintokyo said:
That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.Essexit said:
Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.edmundintokyo said:
Disagree, think about the demographics.Philip_Thompson said:
When? We are never going to rejoin.DecrepitJohnL said:
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.ThreeQuidder said:Europhiles showing how much they have learned...
https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.
But I suppose that doesn't matter to most on this website.0 -
I spoke to him a few times when he was general counsel for the Wikimedia Foundation. He went on to eBay IIRC.Nigelb said:I didn't realise that Godwin (of the eponymous Law) had already weighed in regarding Trump last year:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/12/14/sure-call-trump-a-nazi-just-make-sure-you-know-what-youre-talking-about/0 -
Will we ever fully leave?Patrick said:We'll never rejoin.
0 -
''Bingo. Immigration/FoM was low on my list of reasons for being a Leaver but when Remainers say how terrible it is that we're being stripped of our 'rights' to free movement it shows how out of touch they are with most people who voted Leave. ''
Voters have looked over the pond and have seen that, when immigration explodes, You become your identity. White Male. Latino. Asian. AA. Look at the way the election is discussed on here.
The only thing that follows that is trouble and conflict, as identities blame each other for denying each other power.0 -
I don’t see how we can!williamglenn said:
Will we ever fully leave?Patrick said:We'll never rejoin.
0 -
King Cole, the long term argument can be made equally well the other way. Many Remain voters did not and do not want a United States of Europe.0
-
FL isn't a danger if you're selling on the 330-ups at 20.5, because the price assumes FL goes her way. If by any chance Trump does a lot better and takes FL, that just makes it a safer bet (but probably wouldn't increase your profit because you'd make no extra profit below 330). Texas on the other hand would be a killer - you'd lose 38 points just on that one state if it flipped to Clinton.Sandpit said:And don't forget that Florida's 29 ECVs all go either one way or the other. Spread betting can be scary at the best of times, but the US ECVs are about the scariest thing possible to make a spread bet on - even Mike has cashed out!
Of course, understanding exactly how the bets work and the corresponding risks is crucial. Also crucial is understanding how your bets interact. I have a little model of my betting position which (subject to an assumption of in which order the states would fall) allows me to chart my expected profit/loss by number of ECVs.0 -
I realise I’m in a minority. I’ve been part of minorities ever since since I was old enough to have an opinion.Morris_Dancer said:King Cole, the long term argument can be made equally well the other way. Many Remain voters did not and do not want a United States of Europe.
0 -
I think they're preparing to drain the swampJackW said:
Do you have an EC projection from the deepest bowels of charming Sussex ?PlatoSaid said:Whomever wins tomorrow, many big media reputations are in tatters.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3912164/Latest-Wikileaks-dump-8-000-new-emails-shows-DNC-prepared-anchors-Wolf-Blitzer-Jake-Tapper-interviews-Trump-Cruz.html0 -
In the meantime you can get 11-10 on North Carolina with SkyBet.Alistair said:
The Republicans have done an excellent voter suppression/disenfranchisement job in NC. Reducing voting stations, purging voters from the roles.Chris said:This article on the final early voting figures for North Carolina is very negative about Clinton's prospects there, based on the fact that the Democrat lead is only 9.8%, compared with 16% in 2012:
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting-results-2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-votes-cast-turnout-up-down-increase-decrease-who-winning-republicans-democrats/
Fortunately Racism is over so the Voting Rights Act is now unconstitutional so no one needs to worry.
I've done alot of betting on NC, on both sides - but pretty much all above evens so its all good.0 -
it's a double edged sword without build that wall, he probably wouldn't have won the nomination.Pulpstar said:If Trump loses, then I think he could have won by doing exactly the same - outwith the whole "Build the wall" thing.
Trade o
Muslims o
Social conservative pivot o
Iraq o
"Hillary in jail" o
Mexico/Wall x0 -
He could have turned " The Wall" into "completion of Obama's border fence", but he's too crazy.nunu said:
it's a double edged sword without build that wall, he probably wouldn't have won the nomination.Pulpstar said:If Trump loses, then I think he could have won by doing exactly the same - outwith the whole "Build the wall" thing.
Trade o
Muslims o
Social conservative pivot o
Iraq o
"Hillary in jail" o
Mexico/Wall x0 -
Rather depends on what you regard as ‘fully’, - I think there’s every chance in a few years we’ll have left the steam roller towards a European federal state government, while retaining many trade links and adopted EU standards .williamglenn said:
Will we ever fully leave?Patrick said:We'll never rejoin.
0 -
The Chief Economist of World First has produced a predictions map...
https://twitter.com/World_First/status/795572358941732864?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
He gives Hillary Florida and Trump Virginia??!
Either a mistake, or are people in the money markets really that under-informed?!0 -
@Richard_Nabavi SPIN won't seem to have my payment show up and they've decided my existing spread bet "exhausts" my limit >.>0
-
He could have won - assuming he doesn't - had he simply avoided being disproportionately gratuitously insulting to women. There are many paths to victory which he could have taken but doing something about his scores with women would have been one of the easiest.Pulpstar said:If Trump loses, then I think he could have won by doing exactly the same - outwith the whole "Build the wall" thing.
Trade o
Muslims o
Social conservative pivot o
Iraq o
"Hillary in jail" o
Mexico/Wall x0 -
Hillary Arizona and Trump Virginia.AllyPally_Rob said:The Chief Economist of World First has produced a predictions map...
https://twitter.com/World_First/status/795572358941732864?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
He gives Hillary Florida and Trump Virginia??!
Either a mistake, or are people in the money markets really that under-informed?!
Oh my aching sides.0 -
You can check-out any time you like. But you can never leave!williamglenn said:
Will we ever fully leave?Patrick said:We'll never rejoin.
(And she said "We are all just prisoners here, of our own device" .....
They stab it with their steely knives, But they just can't kill the beast")0 -
For anyone who missed it, Saturday Night Live's satirical final take on the election.
Cold Open, featuring Trump kissing Putin and a KKK leader, but everyone hugs and makes up in the end!
ttps://youtube.com/watch?v=xCXEBsnLlpU
Weekend Update: 'A Weiner Always Pops Up At The Worst Possible Time'
ttps://youtube.com/watch?v=o2AnM1HxJJw0 -
National - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 799 - 4-6 Nov
Clinton 44 .. Trump 41
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-07/national-poll0 -
Does the payment not show up in your account history?Pulpstar said:@Richard_Nabavi SPIN won't seem to have my payment show up and they've decided my existing spread bet "exhausts" my limit >.>
One problem with them is that I think they treat the bets as independent, so if you have an open buy on the main ECV market and then sell on the X-ups market, they can ask for a deposit even though you've actually reduced your real exposure.0 -
Buy tin-foil futures....MaxPB said:
Interesting that both sides have the same proportion of people who think that the vote is being rigged though.AlastairMeeks said:The Republican take on this doesn't make for a happy America if Hillary Clinton wins:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/7955838669374423040 -
Yes. I think on the whole this election will be won or lost based on what the white vote does, how it splits and differential turnout.619 said:
'White registered unaffiliated voters saw an overall increase of 41 percent, but among suburban white registered unaffiliated voters, it was an increase of 57 percent.Alistair said:
http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/619 said:
Interesting, though the composition of the Unaffiliated would be useful.Chris said:This article on the final early voting figures for North Carolina is very negative about Clinton's prospects there, based on the fact that the Democrat lead is only 9.8%, compared with 16% in 2012:
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting-results-2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-votes-cast-turnout-up-down-increase-decrease-who-winning-republicans-democrats/
Among black unaffiliated voters, who are typically more from the Millennial generation, it was again suburban black unaffiliated voters showing the largest increase. '
If Clinton is winning suburban whites, this would be very good.0 -
Erm, there is no way we can't.OldKingCole said:
I don’t see how we can!williamglenn said:
Will we ever fully leave?Patrick said:We'll never rejoin.
Remember the little event in June called the Referendum.
We're leaving, despite the fantasies of Remoaners.0 -
My existing bet is a Sell of Trump at 209 (I have it hedged at Spreadex to make it effectively a straight bet on Hillary 250+ with large downside.)Richard_Nabavi said:
Does the payment not show up in your account history?Pulpstar said:@Richard_Nabavi SPIN won't seem to have my payment show up and they've decided my existing spread bet "exhausts" my limit >.>
One problem with them is that I think they treat the bets as independent, so if you have an open buy on the main ECV market and then sell on the X-ups market, they can ask for a deposit even though you've actually reduced your real exposure.0 -
They may need more than a bum gun after that.Roger said:
I think they're preparing to drain the swampJackW said:
Do you have an EC projection from the deepest bowels of charming Sussex ?PlatoSaid said:Whomever wins tomorrow, many big media reputations are in tatters.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3912164/Latest-Wikileaks-dump-8-000-new-emails-shows-DNC-prepared-anchors-Wolf-Blitzer-Jake-Tapper-interviews-Trump-Cruz.html0 -
well pussygate wouldve screwed him over regardlessdavid_herdson said:
He could have won - assuming he doesn't - had he simply avoided being disproportionately gratuitously insulting to women. There are many paths to victory which he could have taken but doing something about his scores with women would have been one of the easiest.Pulpstar said:If Trump loses, then I think he could have won by doing exactly the same - outwith the whole "Build the wall" thing.
Trade o
Muslims o
Social conservative pivot o
Iraq o
"Hillary in jail" o
Mexico/Wall x0 -
-
I believe that commercial life in both Britain and Europe is so interdependent that a customs wall, for example, between us is impossible.Mortimer said:
Erm, there is no way we can't.OldKingCole said:
I don’t see how we can!williamglenn said:
Will we ever fully leave?Patrick said:We'll never rejoin.
Remember the little event in June called the Referendum.
We're leaving, despite the fantasies of Remoaners.0 -
JosiasJessop said:
One side effect of this is that we can now see *some* Brexiters' attitudes to the rule of law. It is not a pretty sight.rottenborough said:
Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.FrancisUrquhart said:I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.
I have never revealed my vote and don't intend to. But I am very willing to say that those on the Leave side who attack the idea that the government should be subject to the rule of law are indeed wrong and dangerously so. This is a key principle that our forefathers fought for since Magna Carta. It is the basis of the rule of law. It is one of the things which makes me proud of Britain. It is one of the things which Britain has brought to the world.AlastairMeeks said:
There is no aspect of Britain's civic society that some Leavers aren't prepared to dismember in pursuit of their mania. And far too few of the other Leavers are willing to stand up to their fellow travellers and tell them that they are dangerously wrong.TOPPING said:
Most of the Leave campaign was predicated on eg the IFS being in the pocket of their EU paymasters.AlastairMeeks said:I don't have any problem with the Mail poring over the backgrounds of the Supreme Court judges to try to identify their possible predispositions in this case; I'm planning to do so myself. I do have a problem with them suggesting that any of the judges are actively biased or compromised without the most compelling of evidence. This isn't it and is fit only for crackpots.
Criticise legal judgments by all means. Do so in robust fashion. Free speech matters. It too is key to our freedoms.
But marches on courts, talk of "enemies of the people", the belief that governments must implement the peoples' will without any regard to the law are things which are rather more reminiscent of rackety and illiberal Continental regimes we have become rather too familiar with in the recent past. They are not - and should not - be part of the Britain I love.0 -
That's a very clear and concise explaination. Agree with you that the key is predicting the order in which states change hands. Good luck, and hope your model is profitable!Richard_Nabavi said:
FL isn't a danger if you're selling on the 330-ups at 20.5, because the price assumes FL goes her way. If by any chance Trump does a lot better and takes FL, that just makes it a safer bet (but probably wouldn't increase your profit because you'd make no extra profit below 330). Texas on the other hand would be a killer - you'd lose 38 points just on that one state if it flipped to Clinton.Sandpit said:And don't forget that Florida's 29 ECVs all go either one way or the other. Spread betting can be scary at the best of times, but the US ECVs are about the scariest thing possible to make a spread bet on - even Mike has cashed out!
Of course, understanding exactly how the bets work and the corresponding risks is crucial. Also crucial is understanding how your bets interact. I have a little model of my betting position which (subject to an assumption of in which order the states would fall) allows me to chart my expected profit/loss by number of ECVs.0 -
Switzerland is not in the customs union and does 70% of its trade with the EU. They seem to get on just fine. Better than fine, in fact.OldKingCole said:
I believe that commercial life in both Britain and Europe is so interdependent that a customs wall, for example, between us is impossible.Mortimer said:
Erm, there is no way we can't.OldKingCole said:
I don’t see how we can!williamglenn said:
Will we ever fully leave?Patrick said:We'll never rejoin.
Remember the little event in June called the Referendum.
We're leaving, despite the fantasies of Remoaners.0 -
Things like the wall were avoidable, as they were part of his pitch during the campaign. Trump's misogyny is part of who he is, correcting that would require a time machine to change his upbringing.david_herdson said:He could have won - assuming he doesn't - had he simply avoided being disproportionately gratuitously insulting to women. There are many paths to victory which he could have taken but doing something about his scores with women would have been one of the easiest.
0 -
If Trump were not Trump he would have a better chance of winning. And a lot of us would not be so worried about tomorrow's result.david_herdson said:
He could have won - assuming he doesn't - had he simply avoided being disproportionately gratuitously insulting to women. There are many paths to victory which he could have taken but doing something about his scores with women would have been one of the easiest.Pulpstar said:If Trump loses, then I think he could have won by doing exactly the same - outwith the whole "Build the wall" thing.
Trade o
Muslims o
Social conservative pivot o
Iraq o
"Hillary in jail" o
Mexico/Wall x
0 -
National Tracker - Survey Monkey/NBC - Sample 70,194 (WOW) - 31 Oct - 6 Nov
Clinton 47 .. Trump 41
https://www.scribd.com/document/330243723/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-1031-11-6?secret_password=RZmAhM5A4ukrIpXPn0p8
0 -
I don't think Hillary is ~ 65% likely to win Florida, I've laid out my previous GOP stake at 1.49 on Betfair.0
-
''well pussygate wouldve screwed him over regardless ''
People working two low paid jobs in hollowed out cities to survive.
I'm sure they base their voting decisions on unproven allegations of sexual misconduct.0 -
Well said.Cyclefree said:JosiasJessop said:
One side effect of this is that we can now see *some* Brexiters' attitudes to the rule of law. It is not a pretty sight.rottenborough said:
Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.FrancisUrquhart said:I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.
I have never revealed my vote and don't intend to. But I am very willing to say that those on the Leave side who attack the idea that the government should be subject to the rule of law are indeed wrong and dangerously so. This is a key principle that our forefathers fought for since Magna Carta. It is the basis of the rule of law. It is one of the things which makes me proud of Britain. It is one of the things which Britain has brought to the world.AlastairMeeks said:
There is no aspect of Britain's civic society that some Leavers aren't prepared to dismember in pursuit of their mania. And far too few of the other Leavers are willing to stand up to their fellow travellers and tell them that they are dangerously wrong.TOPPING said:
Most of the Leave campaign was predicated on eg the IFS being in the pocket of their EU paymasters.AlastairMeeks said:I don't have any problem with the Mail poring over the backgrounds of the Supreme Court judges to try to identify their possible predispositions in this case; I'm planning to do so myself. I do have a problem with them suggesting that any of the judges are actively biased or compromised without the most compelling of evidence. This isn't it and is fit only for crackpots.
Criticise legal judgments by all means. Do so in robust fashion. Free speech matters. It too is key to our freedoms.
But marches on courts, talk of "enemies of the people", the belief that governments must implement the peoples' will without any regard to the law are things which are rather more reminiscent of rackety and illiberal Continental regimes we have become rather too familiar with in the recent past. They are not - and should not - be part of the Britain I love.
The Daily Mail and similar coverage seemed to be encouraging mob rule, as indeed so has Farage.
We can do without Momentum, Trumpism (plus Farage playing Robin to his Batman) and newspapers challenging the rule of law.0 -
''If Trump were not Trump he would have a better chance of winning. And a lot of us would not be so worried about tomorrow's result. ''
I don;t buy the argument that some kind of soft right McCain/Romney/Ryan clone would be beating Clinton.
They would just be losing in a different way.0 -
Lowly paid women who have to put up with sexual harrassment as the price of keeping their jobs may very well see his boasts differently.taffys said:''well pussygate wouldve screwed him over regardless ''
People working two low paid jobs in hollowed out cities to survive.
I'm sure they base their voting decisions on unproven allegations of sexual misconduct.
If only blue collar whie American males were voting, then you might have a point, but America is much more diverse than that, and indeed much more diverse than Britain.0 -
Trump's biggest problem with these stories during the campaign is that he just wouldn't move on from them.glw said:
Things like the wall were avoidable, as they were part of his pitch during the campaign. Trump's misogyny is part of who he is, correcting that would require a time machine to change his upbringing.david_herdson said:He could have won - assuming he doesn't - had he simply avoided being disproportionately gratuitously insulting to women. There are many paths to victory which he could have taken but doing something about his scores with women would have been one of the easiest.
When the story about the bus came up, he should have said "Apologies for the crude language, was banter from a long time ago, but it was just that - only talk. No blowies from the interns for President Trump!" and then just shut up and let it blow over.
But he wouldn't let it lie and gave the story legs - someone really should have confiscated his phone after the convention.0 -
#BackToTheDrawingBoardPulpstar said:
Hillary Arizona and Trump Virginia.AllyPally_Rob said:The Chief Economist of World First has produced a predictions map...
https://twitter.com/World_First/status/795572358941732864?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
He gives Hillary Florida and Trump Virginia??!
Either a mistake, or are people in the money markets really that under-informed?!
Oh my aching sides.
0 -
They would get a narrow victory against Clinton. A candidate that could push the Trump agenda without the craziness would win a landslide.taffys said:''If Trump were not Trump he would have a better chance of winning. And a lot of us would not be so worried about tomorrow's result. ''
I don;t buy the argument that some kind of soft right McCain/Romney/Ryan clone would be beating Clinton.
They would just be losing in a different way.0 -
WB Yeats put it best: "The worst are full of passionate intensity." "The centre cannot hold."Lucian_Fletcher said:
Absolutely. The problem is the extremes seem to be in control of the debate at the moment.SouthamObserver said:No surprise to see some on the right calling for "democratic" oversight of judges because a court decision has been handed down that they do not like. The far left believes in this too. Just another case of the two wings circling to join each other.
A great poet.0 -
Are we having a referendum then? No-one told me.Theuniondivvie said:https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/795572780465090560
So that leaves big guns Kezia, Willie or Fluffy.
Of course Farage may be suddenly remember the UK element of UKIP. Here's hoping!0 -
''They are not - and should not - be part of the Britain I love.''
This sunlit vision of a past Britain where everybody knew their places and the decisions of authority were always respected is a huge pile of b8llocks.
Unrest had often been there.0 -
Are you sure about that; I thought there was a dispute going on. And Switzerland never got as involved as we did in the first place. It’s always a lot harder to unravel something than set it up in the first place.MaxPB said:
Switzerland is not in the customs union and does 70% of its trade with the EU. They seem to get on just fine. Better than fine, in fact.OldKingCole said:
I believe that commercial life in both Britain and Europe is so interdependent that a customs wall, for example, between us is impossible.Mortimer said:
Erm, there is no way we can't.OldKingCole said:
I don’t see how we can!williamglenn said:
Will we ever fully leave?Patrick said:We'll never rejoin.
Remember the little event in June called the Referendum.
We're leaving, despite the fantasies of Remoaners.0 -
The fantasists all seem to be on the Leave side. Farage and co calling for marches on the courts, for democratic control of judges, saying that Parliament is going to overturn the will of the people and so on. It's all utter nonsense. We are leaving the EU. Our democracy requires the clear separation of powers. Judges are independent. All that remains to be decided is when we leave and under what terms. Neither of these things were voted on in June.Mortimer said:
Erm, there is no way we can't.OldKingCole said:
I don’t see how we can!williamglenn said:
Will we ever fully leave?Patrick said:We'll never rejoin.
Remember the little event in June called the Referendum.
We're leaving, despite the fantasies of Remoaners.
0 -
Agreed, and similarly I don't buy the argument that any other Democrat would be winning in a landslide. Saying that Trump and Clinton are two uniquely weak candidates electorally is one of those truisms that isn't true.taffys said:''If Trump were not Trump he would have a better chance of winning. And a lot of us would not be so worried about tomorrow's result. ''
I don;t buy the argument that some kind of soft right McCain/Romney/Ryan clone would be beating Clinton.
They would just be losing in a different way.0 -
Possibly, I don't doubt that Trump is channeling some real anger that a "clone" would find harder to do so — as was Sanders on the other side of the fence — but Trump has too much baggage.taffys said:I don;t buy the argument that some kind of soft right McCain/Romney/Ryan clone would be beating Clinton.
They would just be losing in a different way.0
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