politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One day to go and Betfair makes Hillary an 83% chance but the

619 said:

brokenwheel said:

FPT

619 said:

https://twitter.com/jesseberney/status/795436670057377792

Early voting was shorter in 2012. There were 4.5M early voters then, we look to be well over 6M now so it would be hard for the black vote in raw numbers to decrease over 2012 unless their vote had completely collapsed. However AA proportion of the vote has decreased, there are many more whites than 2012 too. So no, Hillary only just overtaking the 2012 vote in raw numbers is not good.

that wasnt counting sundays soul to the polls. I imagine that raw figure went up massively

I really doubt it, Souls to the Polls Sunday was last Sunday. Only a few counties were open this Sunday as it is not a mandatory voting day. Of the ones that were many are not high AA areas. The total early vote this Sunday will be much smaller than other days judging by previous elections. It's not going to have an impact on the proportion of vote.

edmundintokyo said:

Essexit said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

Disagree, think about the demographics.

Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.

That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.

Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.

I'd love to know Rod's final prediction for this election.

Alistair said:

asjohnstone said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
. @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


1930s Germany?

They are elected in the US at most levels

And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.

The word you're searching for is "accountability"

Elected judges in America are under huge pressure to make rulings that are counter to the law but would hepl them at the ballot box. Their impartiality is compromised.

The US system of elected/overtly partisan judges is not one I wish to adopt.

edmundintokyo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tokyo, I hope you survive the Godzilla attack.

Thanks. I hope America survives its election.

That wouldn't be a problem. Japan is full of educated and resilient souls, they will take Godzilla in their stride. America, on the other hand...

Mr. Sandpit, some say Godzilla's tough stance on North Korea is earning him good approval ratings.

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

peter_from_putney said:

A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?

* Ohio has 18 ECVs

Turnout projection 62%

Thanks Jack, though the Betfair band bprder is at 62%!

Higberor lower. I am thinking higher.

Wow, 2012 Turnout was 54.87% and 2008 was 58.2% This is a big call by the ARSE.

wee Mrs McTurnip shows why she shouldnt be let near a trade deal

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/10bn-china-deal-collapses-over-hostile-scots-outcry-1-4279743

Alistair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

peter_from_putney said:

A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?

* Ohio has 18 ECVs

Turnout projection 62%

Thanks Jack, though the Betfair band border is at 62%!

Higher or lower. I am thinking higher.

Wow, 2012 Turnout was 54.87% and 2008 was 58.2% This is a big call by the ARSE.

I can't see Hillary winning as comfortably as @JackW says if turnout is 62%.

Why pay the spread twice? I'm hanging on to my Clinton buy spread!

GrimRob said:

Why pay the spread twice? I'm hanging on to my Clinton buy spread!

Best way - long term you'll cut your winners and run your losses by "cashing out".

I'm holding both my spread bets to term.

Alistair said:

asjohnstone said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
. @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


1930s Germany?

They are elected in the US at most levels

And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.

The word you're searching for is "accountability"

Elected judges in America are under huge pressure to make rulings that are counter to the law but would hepl them at the ballot box. Their impartiality is compromised.

Yes, judges standing for re-election is a problem. The way to elect judges would be for a single term only, after which they would have to sit out the next term.

In the US there are very few people given permanent appointments to any high profile public role, as opposed to in the UK where we have the senior civil service - everyone is either appointed to serve a politician or elected by the public. This leads to a bunch of unintended consequences, such as the political interference in the electoral process. Unfortunately, like most of these things, it suffers from great inertia and is difficult to change.

In the UK we have not had a problem with activist judges, and they're generally understood to be impartial. If the judges rule against the PM in the Art. 50 case, then a single line Bill through Parliament will suffice to allow the referendum result to be implemented. If I were the PM I'd do it the day before the Christmas recess, with the warning that no-one was going home until it passed!

DecrepitJohnL said:

weejonnie said:

edmundintokyo said:

Essexit said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

Disagree, think about the demographics.

Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.

That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.

Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.

Which does happen, both here and in America: here is your redundancy notice and you must spend the time training your outsourced replacements.

One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.

It is, however, the relatively poor manual workers who cant really afford to drive 1000 miles to enjoy a beer, ski down the Alps and enjoy the vistas that have lost their jobs.

But I suppose that doesn't matter to most on this website.

Alex Leary of the "Tampa Bay Times" updates of the huge Hispanic turnout in Florida :

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article112958953.html

I remain to be convinced that early voting says that much. It's the usual virtue signalling from the Left. "THIS is how much I hate Trump." They get to feel good about themselves a few days early.

I also subscribe to the Shy Trump Theory. I reckon most folks would rather show strangers their internet browsing history than admit to voting Trump, especially amongst the independents.

I still think Clinton wins - but I'm in the "only just" camp. Like I was with Remain on the day before....I could be wrong.

Theuniondivvie said:

Don't panic Leavers, it's only going to be a very few, very rich brown people.

https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/795564655435481088

There is a lot of talk about not giving our negotiating strategy with the EU27 away in advance. In India we are doing the opposite. The message is "Please, Please, Please do a deal with us. Any deal. Please." It's no surprise, of course. We do need a deal a whole lot more than the Indians do. So, if we are to get one, it will be pretty much on their terms. See Iceland and China.

Charles said:

Sandpit said:

Alistair said:

asjohnstone said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
. @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


1930s Germany?

They are elected in the US at most levels

And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.

The word you're searching for is "accountability"

Elected judges in America are under huge pressure to make rulings that are counter to the law but would hepl them at the ballot box. Their impartiality is compromised.

Yes, judges standing for re-election is a problem. The way to elect judges would be for a single term only, after which they would have to sit out the next term.

In the US there are very few people given permanent appointments to any high profile public role, as opposed to in the UK where we have the senior civil service - everyone is either appointed to serve a politician or elected by the public. This leads to a bunch of unintended consequences, such as the political interference in the electoral process. Unfortunately, like most of these things, it suffers from great inertia and is difficult to change.

In the UK we have not had a problem with activist judges, and they're generally understood to be impartial. If the judges rule against the PM in the Art. 50 case, then a single line Bill through Parliament will suffice to allow the referendum result to be implemented. If I were the PM I'd do it the day before the Christmas recess, with the warning that no-one was going home until it passed!

The most damage has been caused by Labour's decision to rename immigration tribunal panel members "judges" despite their lack of legal training. If you look at many of the silly decisions and scandals that the Mail gets upset by it's that group not what you or I might think of - recorders, HCJ or SCJ.

But it's undermined respect for the system.

The Tories have had six years to change the name. They haven't. Clearly they have no problem with it.

SouthamObserver said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Don't panic Leavers, it's only going to be a very few, very rich brown people.

https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/795564655435481088

There is a lot of talk about not giving our negotiating strategy with the EU27 away in advance. In India we are doing the opposite. The message is "Please, Please, Please do a deal with us. Any deal. Please." It's no surprise, of course. We do need a deal a whole lot more than the Indians do. So, if we are to get one, it will be pretty much on their terms. See Iceland and China.

Don't be ridiculous. You're becoming like a headless chicken. A trade deal with India of peripheral importance and India doesn't really want any trade deals given their addiction to tariff income.

Here are the ECV Trump numbers that he is expected to win should he have "certain" states in his column (From Rod Crosby's spreadsheet)

Interestingly it matches @JackW projection

62 MT
77 AK
148 TX
175 AZ
197 GA

-------------- @JackW projection

215 OH
230 NC
236 NV
266 FL
270 NH <- New Hampshire to win
286 MI
433 MD(*)
521 CA
538 DC

Without Nevada, Trump requires Michigan to win - in my view IF he has won New Hampshire he has most likely taken at least one of the Great Lake states too.

* Nate Silver has Maryland as the state before DC.

DC is unequivocally the safest ECV votes for Clinton - any model that doesn't show this is simply wrong.

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

Sandpit said:

Alistair said:

asjohnstone said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
. @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


1930s Germany?

They are elected in the US at most levels

And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.

The word you're searching for is "accountability"

Elected judges in America are under huge pressure to make rulings that are counter to the law but would hepl them at the ballot box. Their impartiality is compromised.

Yes, judges standing for re-election is a problem. The way to elect judges would be for a single term only, after which they would have to sit out the next term.

In the US there are very few people given permanent appointments to any high profile public role, as opposed to in the UK where we have the senior civil service - everyone is either appointed to serve a politician or elected by the public. This leads to a bunch of unintended consequences, such as the political interference in the electoral process. Unfortunately, like most of these things, it suffers from great inertia and is difficult to change.

In the UK we have not had a problem with activist judges, and they're generally understood to be impartial. If the judges rule against the PM in the Art. 50 case, then a single line Bill through Parliament will suffice to allow the referendum result to be implemented. If I were the PM I'd do it the day before the Christmas recess, with the warning that no-one was going home until it passed!

The most damage has been caused by Labour's decision to rename immigration tribunal panel members "judges" despite their lack of legal training. If you look at many of the silly decisions and scandals that the Mail gets upset by it's that group not what you or I might think of - recorders, HCJ or SCJ.

But it's undermined respect for the system.

The Tories have had six years to change the name. They haven't. Clearly they have no problem with it.

Would the LibDems in the Coalition have allowed a return to "the House of Lords"? Nah... So that's five of the six accounted for....

edmundintokyo said:

brokenwheel said:

619 said:

brokenwheel said:

FPT

619 said:

https://twitter.com/jesseberney/status/795436670057377792

Early voting was shorter in 2012. There were 4.5M early voters then, we look to be well over 6M now so it would be hard for the black vote in raw numbers to decrease over 2012 unless their vote had completely collapsed. However AA proportion of the vote has decreased, there are many more whites than 2012 too. So no, Hillary only just overtaking the 2012 vote in raw numbers is not good.

that wasnt counting sundays soul to the polls. I imagine that raw figure went up massively

I really doubt it, Souls to the Polls Sunday was last Sunday. Only a few counties were open this Sunday as it is not a mandatory voting day. Of the ones that were many are not high AA areas. The total early vote this Sunday will be much smaller than other days judging by previous elections. It's not going to have an impact on the proportion of vote.

This seems to say the big Democratic counties will have been open:
http://www.nbc-2.com/story/33640852/floridas-early-voting-wrapping-up-on-sunday

I said AA areas not Democrat. There are many AAs in Republican counties in Florida.

The vote this Sunday will be much smaller than a normal day anyway. It was in 2012 and 2008. It isn't going to change the AA numbers much, possibly the Hispanic numbers though.

Theuniondivvie said:

Don't panic Leavers, it's only going to be a very few, very rich brown people.

https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/795564655435481088

Good. Why should be be placing bureaucratic barriers in the way of entrepreneurs wanting to set up in the UK, bringing investment and creating jobs?

I'd go further, why should we get in the way of anyone who can make a net contribution to British society, whether by bringing investment, earning a high salary or filling a genuine skills gap - no matter from which country they originate?

Sean_F said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

Disagree, think about the demographics.

Most of today's pensioners were enthusiasts for the EU in 1975.

Now they have their triple lock pensions, paid fof the mortgage and don't need to worry about a job!

Sean_F said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

Disagree, think about the demographics.

Most of today's pensioners were enthusiasts for the EU in 1975.

NO they were enthusiasts for the single market ie the Common Market. They were lied to by successive Govts of both colours as to what it meant.

Kinder, softer, gentler politics.

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/795568982551982080

DecrepitJohnL said:

weejonnie said:

edmundintokyo said:

Essexit said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

Disagree, think about the demographics.

Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.

That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.

Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.

Which does happen, both here and in America: here is your redundancy notice and you must spend the time training your outsourced replacements.

One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.

Erm, neither Poland nor the Czech Republic use the Euro.

Someone else yesterday predicted Hungary leaving the Euro next year, which would be quite an achievement given they haven't joined yet!

EU <> Eurozone

Pulpstar said:

Here are the ECV Trump numbers that he is expected to win should he have "certain" states in his column (From Rod Crosby's spreadsheet)

Interestingly it matches @JackW projection

62 MT
77 AK
148 TX
175 AZ
197 GA

-------------- @JackW projection

215 OH
230 NC
236 NV
266 FL
270 NH <- New Hampshire to win
286 MI
433 MD(*)
521 CA
538 DC

Without Nevada, Trump requires Michigan to win - in my view IF he has won New Hampshire he has most likely taken at least one of the Great Lake states too.

* Nate Silver has Maryland as the state before DC.

DC is unequivocally the safest ECV votes for Clinton - any model that doesn't show this is simply wrong.</p>

Best summary I've seen yet - thanks!

MonikerDiCanio said:

Sandpit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Don't panic Leavers, it's only going to be a very few, very rich brown people.

https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/795564655435481088

Good. Why should be be placing bureaucratic barriers in the way of entrepreneurs wanting to set up in the UK, bringing investment and creating jobs?

I'd go further, why should we get in the way of anyone who can make a net contribution to British society, whether by bringing investment, earning a high salary or filling a genuine skills gap - no matter from which country they originate?

Thud doesn't see them as entrepreneurs but as " brown people ". It's a recurrent theme in his thinking.

Since the one consistent factor in your various political positions (insofar as any of them are authentic) is to have had racists (Berlusconi, Farage, Trump etc) in your political wank bank, that is the pot calling the kettle black. Or brown.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

PB, the place keen to get to the bottom of a political issue.

PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome
Will next Labour manifesto include pledge to ban toilet paper? http://bit.ly/2f6K7XR
"“You don’t see what you are doing with the Andrex which, not to put too fine a point on it, is spreading it around like a toddler and his new paint box."

Well they'll run the country like Venezuala - so the point is moot - there won't be any supply. We'll have to use sponges.

Here is Nate Silver's "state order" (Trump ECVs)

MT 63
TX 151
AK 154
GA 179
AZ 191

-------------- @JackW projection

OH 215
FL 245
NC 260
NV 266
NH 270
MI 315
CA 507
MD 535
DC 538

King Cole, I got one that was pretty well-folded and it seemed slightly fiddlier to get in my wallet [not a major thing for me, of course, but if someone had a stack of them it might be somewhat irksome].

Daft bloody thing, and too damned small. It's real security measure is looking so rubbish no self-respecting counterfeiter would copy it.

Pulpstar said:

Here is Nate Silver's "state order" (Trump ECVs)

MT 63
TX 151
AK 154
GA 179
AZ 191

-------------- @JackW projection

OH 215

-------------- My prediction

FL 245
NC 260
NV 266
NH 270
MI 315
CA 507
MD 535
DC 538

Better play my cards, this is how I had it yesterday. So I agree on the state order.

OldKingCole said:

SquareRoot said:

Sean_F said:

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

Disagree, think about the demographics.

Most of today's pensioners were enthusiasts for the EU in 1975.

NO they were enthusiasts for the single market ie the Common Market. They were lied to by successive Govts of both colours as to what it meant.

One of us has selective amnesia. I’m an OAP and i’m sure that further developments were envisaged, and talked about in 1975.

they may well have been and I expect we were told we would get a say, which we never got and its why we are where we are now.

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

To rejoin after Brexit would require the UK to join the eurozone and Schengen, the UK may eventually join EFTA, which it was a member of before it joined the EU but I cannot see it joining the EU again once Article 50 has been invoked and the terms of departure agreed

It would not require Schengen. The treaties explicitly recognise the CTA. It would take a new Treaty - which requires the agreement of Ireland - to derecognise the CTA.

NickPalmer said:

I understand your reasoning, but there are severe personal career difficulties in asking people to sign up for a single term and then go away. What do they do next? As with former MPs, who have no obvious next move when they lose, they may well be in middle age and unable easily to take up a new profession. (I was a translator as well, which saved my bacon)

What if you made the single term like 20 years?

Mr. Putney, the colour is fine, I agree.

It's just every other aspect that's rubbish

Mr. Meeks, if it's a Labour policy, surely every man should have a bowel-owl?

SPIN is moving...

Clinton up to 322-332 (Spreadex much lower at 308-323)

The SPIN Clinton 330-up spread is now up to 20.5-26.5. That's a Sell according to all three of the models I've been tracking (538, NYT and HuffPost). But DYOR: you'd lose your shirt if Hillary somehow managed to nick Texas.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Here is Nate Silver's "state order" (Trump ECVs)

MT 63
TX 151
AK 154
GA 179
AZ 191

-------------- @JackW projection

OH 215

-------------- My prediction

FL 245
NC 260
NV 266
NH 270
MI 315
CA 507
MD 535
DC 538

Better play my cards, this is how I had it yesterday. So I agree on the state order.

I think Arizona falls before Georgia because of the latino share of the vote. Apperently the biggest increase in latino votes is in Arizona. Also I expect Black share to be down, and more resistance amongst white voters to clinton in GA then Arizona.

Morris_Dancer said:

Got my first new fiver. Absolutely rubbish. Small, feels like Monopoly money. Humbug. Whoever thought it was a good idea is a jester.

You should ask for your money back. Boom, boom.

SouthamObserver said:

No surprise to see some on the right calling for "democratic" oversight of judges because a court decision has been handed down that they do not like. The far left believes in this too. Just another case of the two wings circling to join each other.

Yes. The last 'serious' person I heard call for an elected judiciary was Tony Benn.

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Don't panic Leavers, it's only going to be a very few, very rich brown people.

https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/795564655435481088

There is a lot of talk about not giving our negotiating strategy with the EU27 away in advance. In India we are doing the opposite. The message is "Please, Please, Please do a deal with us. Any deal. Please." It's no surprise, of course. We do need a deal a whole lot more than the Indians do. So, if we are to get one, it will be pretty much on their terms. See Iceland and China.

Don't be ridiculous. You're becoming like a headless chicken. A trade deal with India of peripheral importance and India doesn't really want any trade deals given their addiction to tariff income.

Yes, as I say a trade deal with India would be on their terms. Watching Liam Fox and Theresa May walking together down the aeroplane steps to the tarmac in New Delhi, and reading and watching the coverage of the trip, does not indicate they see anything peripheral about a deal.

Morris_Dancer said:

Got my first new fiver. Absolutely rubbish. Small, feels like Monopoly money. Humbug. Whoever thought it was a good idea is a jester.

I received my first one on Friday, which means that our cash spending habits probably aren't that dissimiliar.

Richard_Nabavi said:

SPIN is moving...

Clinton up to 322-332 (Spreadex much lower at 308-323)

The SPIN Clinton 330-up spread is now up to 20.5-26.5. That's a Sell according to all three of the models I've been tracking (538, NYT and HuffPost). But DYOR: you'd lose your shirt if Hillary somehow managed to nick Texas.

How does the "SPIN Clinton 330-up spread" work?

Mortimer said:

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/795572780465090560

So that leaves big guns Kezia, Willie or Fluffy.

Of course Farage may be suddenly remember the UK element of UKIP. Here's hoping!

Doesn't want to legitimise a fantasy vote, more like.

There will never be Indyref 2

I believe if you put a wee bit of paper with 'There will never be Indyref 2' written on it under your pillow every night, that will definitely stop it happening!

SouthamObserver said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Got my first new fiver. Absolutely rubbish. Small, feels like Monopoly money. Humbug. Whoever thought it was a good idea is a jester.

You should ask for your money back. Boom, boom.

I believe Jack W still demands payment in sovereigns.

Did anyone watch the programme about Weiner on BBC 4 last night.. Words failed me.

JackW said:

National Tracker - IBD/TIPP - Sample 1,026 - 3-6 Nov

Clinton 40.7 .. Trump 43.1

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

And the reason that poll is wrong is....???

AlastairMeeks said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

PB, the place keen to get to the bottom of a political issue.

PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome
Will next Labour manifesto include pledge to ban toilet paper? http://bit.ly/2f6K7XR
"“You don’t see what you are doing with the Andrex which, not to put too fine a point on it, is spreading it around like a toddler and his new paint box."

Everybody should have his own bum-gun.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=bum-gun&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b&gfe_rd=cr&ei=Al8gWLGeFpLZ8Aec9KGgBw

Richard_Nabavi said:

SPIN is moving...

Clinton up to 322-332 (Spreadex much lower at 308-323)

The SPIN Clinton 330-up spread is now up to 20.5-26.5. That's a Sell according to all three of the models I've been tracking (538, NYT and HuffPost). But DYOR: you'd lose your shirt if Hillary somehow managed to nick Texas.

Wow, at its mid-point, Sporting's spread for Hillary is more than 30 ECVs ahead of 538.com..... there's brave! That said, America is still asleep, in the main. Maybe not in Maine, but in the main.