politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memo to Seamus Milne: Your boss, Mr. Corbyn, needs to have a r
Comments
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Interesting point of view:
"It doesn't matter who wins the US election. The decadent West is in terminal decline
Christopher Booker"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/05/it-doesnt-matter-who-wins-the-us-election-the-decadent-west-is-i/0 -
Who cares about what they think ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nor does the EU?Nigelb said:
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Excellent horror movie on the horror ch now - horror express.0
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Miami Herald provides good coverage in Florida. It seems to be an absolute knife edge with just 7000 votes separating the candidates on 6 million cast. The ballots haven't been opened so there may be discrepancies at that stage.edmundintokyo said:Is there a site anywhere that analyses early voting systematically, like 538 does for polls? I'm having a really hard time working out what it all means if anything, and a lot of the commentary will be prone to confirmation bias.
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True, but it's still a huge range of outcomes.Theuniondivvie said:
If the parameters are 'landslide' and 'squeaking it', that suggest the possibilities are pretty much weighted to one side.glw said:
I've given up reading reports of polling, there are so many pollsters, so many different types of poll, and so much spin that I can not make head nor tail of it. Anything between a Clinton landslide and Trump squeaking it seems possible based on what I've read.williamglenn said:It's very hard to analyse because the data, both hard and anecdotal, are completely all over the place.
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Corbyn on an early GE:.
He said: “If the Government calls an election we’re ready for it.
So as expected, if May wants a General Election, the FTPA shouldn't stand in her way.
“We have the members, the organisation and the enthusiasm. We welcome the challenge.
“It would give us the chance to put before the British people an alternative economic strategy for this country.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-gives-theresa-ultimatum-92043930 -
Hillary Clinton has improved her position to 1.28 on Betfair.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.1073734190 -
No. If he'd thought he could win he'd have called the referendum.another_richard said:
An irony is that Britain might well have voted to join the Euro if Blair had campaigned for it at his peak.SeanT said:
I sympathise with Remainers, having Cameron at the helm in this referendum. Possibly the only prime minister in recent history who could have lost it. Arrogant and inept, lazy and myopic at the same time: just the worst combination. Refused Crosby's advice to delay the vote. A political midget in platform shoes.IanB2 said:
All he had to do was give 16 and 17 year olds the vote, as Scotland had already done, and possibly also British citizens living abroad in the EU and elsewhere for longer than the 15-year cut off. But, as today's 'leak' of his conversation with Sturgeon reveals, he thought he could win regardless.SeanT said:
Yes, my opinion of him could not be lower. He was a disaster, and will be seen as such, in time. A man who catastrophically overrated himself. Eton has a lot to answer for.nunu said:
He said whatever suited him at the time like with Turkey. No one believed him when he said it won't be joining until the year 3,000 because he used to be Turkeys biggest cheerleader for joining.SeanT said:
Another Remainer lie. Cameron in fact said Britain could and would "thrive" outside the EU:Scott_P said:
Another Brexit meme that will never die.another_richard said:As PM Cameron liked making apologies for events in the past.
Perhaps he'd like to make one now for the mess he left.
Cameron said it would be a mess. He warned against voting for the mess. He campaigned against the mess.
You wanted the mess. Now you blame that guy that tried to stop you.
You won. Suck it up!
"EU referendum: Britain could thrive outside Europe, claims David Cameron"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-britain-could-thrive-outside-europe-claims-david-cameron-a6726606.html
He really was a fucking terrible prime minister.
All the talking out both sides of his mouth at the same time came back to bite him on the bum.0 -
The answer is not to be angry at what is a correct process to challenge government authority and those following that process without concern to the public will (since the public will is a matter for politicians, and we don't want our judges ruling the law is other than they think it is to satisfy public demand), it is to ensure that a) the government wins the appeal or b) if it does not, to fight to make sure attempts to stop Brexit do not succeed.SeanT said:
It's not the legal ruling itself (apart from the very questionable role of Baron Thomas, who should have recused himself) which troubles me, is that the legal ruling was clearly part of a concerted attempt to derail Brexit entirely.
So the courts are being used to subvert democracy. This should stop.
That people are using a process for their own ends to thwart the rederendum does not mean that process is incorrect. Our system did not make the democratic vote binding, that is an inescapable fact, which means someone has to formalise the democratic expression. The argument is over whether that is the government alone or parliament. If the law is it is not the government, that makes the process a little harder, but that's the law, and no talk of subverting democracy will change that, particularly since parliament had the power to ensure this question could never have been asked in the first place by being more explicit.
When people fight you within the rules, the answer is not to ignore the rules, it's to fight them back within the rules. I've said before and I'll say again, its a similar issue to that of free speech - in order to prevent inhibition of valuable speech, there will be much offensive and unworthy speech also protected. And in order to preserve the ability to challenge the government deciding for itself what is and is not within its power, which is a fundamental principle, that will mean there will be times when many unworthy challenges (or challenges used for ulterior motivations) occur.
Frustrating that the motivation eclipses all else, understandably, but the idea challenges should stop because the motivation of this one is undemocratic seems to me to have far more reaching and dangerous implications than accepting (should the gov lose the appeal, naturally) that the government misinterpreted the law, and will have to work a little bit harder to implement the result.
The result has not been prevented from implementation even if the ruling is upheld; it just means May will have to deal with a little more frustration in crossing Ts and dotting Is (or culling the Lords if they play silly buggers). Unfortunate for her, but better that occur than we suggest the government not be challengable so long as they are doing something popular, no matter what the law parliament itself sets may say.0 -
Nor does the EU?Nigelb said:0 -
The problem is getting from the raw numbers to the extrapolation for the general result. It's hard because you need to know:FF43 said:
Miami Herald provides good coverage in Florida. It seems to be an absolute knife edge with just 7000 votes separating the candidates on 6 million cast. The ballots haven't been opened so there may be discrepancies at that stage.edmundintokyo said:Is there a site anywhere that analyses early voting systematically, like 538 does for polls? I'm having a really hard time working out what it all means if anything, and a lot of the commentary will be prone to confirmation bias.
1) Results in previous years
2) Changes in the rules that may have caused the result to deviate.0 -
Shocking how Booker has turned from sunny natured optimist to cranky, reactionary Jeremiah.AndyJS said:Interesting point of view:
"It doesn't matter who wins the US election. The decadent West is in terminal decline
Christopher Booker"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/05/it-doesnt-matter-who-wins-the-us-election-the-decadent-west-is-i/0 -
If that is the Zombie flick, involving Peter Cushing, Christopher Lee and Telly Savalas with some Cossacks...it is an absolute masterpiece.Tykejohnno said:Excellent horror movie on the horror ch now - horror express.
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No they didn'tNoEasyDay said:the judges ignored the fact that parliament voted for the referendum and ignored the fact that Government would carry out the will of the people, which I might add was in the referendum legislation.
What they said was the executive can't strip citizen's rights without going through Parliament. They said "Government by whim" is illegal.
Which should be applauded, especially by Brexiteers who claimed that was what they wanted all along.
Unless they were not being truthful.0 -
It is.tyson said:
If that is the Zombie flick, involving Peter Cushing, Christopher Lee and Telly Savalas with some Cossacks...it is an absolute masterpiece.Tykejohnno said:Excellent horror movie on the horror ch now - horror express.
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Indeed.kle4 said:The answer is not to be angry at what is a correct process to challenge government authority and those following that process without concern to the public will (since the public will is a matter for politicians, and we don't want our judges ruling the law is other than they think it is to satisfy public demand), it is to ensure that a) the government wins the appeal or b) if it does not, to fight to make sure attempts to stop Brexit do not succeed.
The person who is screwing up the process (and the one SeanT should be mad at) is May0 -
The other problem reading early votes is that the Dems have organization without enthusiasm while the GOP have enthusiasm without organization. You'd think organization would get people out early, while enthusiasm would get them out on the day.0
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He couldn't win despite the £9 million leaflets, the fixed Treasury forecasts, and the extension of the registration deadline (way beyond what the duration of the technical fault merited).Sean_F said:
There are many things he could have done to rig the vote, like enfranchising EU nationals, giving a higher weighting to voters under 30 than to voters under 60, or to richer voters than to poorer voters, but he didn't so we are where we are.IanB2 said:
All he had to do was give 16 and 17 year olds the vote, as Scotland had already done, and possibly also British citizens living abroad in the EU and elsewhere for longer than the 15-year cut off. But, as today's 'leak' of his conversation with Sturgeon reveals, he thought he could win regardless.SeanT said:
Yes, my opinion of him could not be lower. He was a disaster, and will be seen as such, in time. A man who catastrophically overrated himself. Eton has a lot to answer for.nunu said:
He said whatever suited him at the time like with Turkey. No one believed him when he said it won't be joining until the year 3,000 because he used to be Turkeys biggest cheerleader for joining.SeanT said:
Another Remainer lie. Cameron in fact said Britain could and would "thrive" outside the EU:Scott_P said:
Another Brexit meme that will never die.another_richard said:As PM Cameron liked making apologies for events in the past.
Perhaps he'd like to make one now for the mess he left.
Cameron said it would be a mess. He warned against voting for the mess. He campaigned against the mess.
You wanted the mess. Now you blame that guy that tried to stop you.
You won. Suck it up!
"EU referendum: Britain could thrive outside Europe, claims David Cameron"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-britain-could-thrive-outside-europe-claims-david-cameron-a6726606.html
He really was a fucking terrible prime minister.
All the talking out both sides of his mouth at the same time came back to bite him on the bum.
Maybe he should have shortened the opening hours and cut the numbers of polling stations in Leave areas. You know, one station for the whole of Clacton-on-Sea, located on the edges of Frinton, open from 7:00-7:30.0 -
I would agree, it's really the range of predicted outcomes that perplexes me. Some of the forecasters are going to be very wrong indeed.Theuniondivvie said:If the parameters are 'landslide' and 'squeaking it', that suggest the possibilities are pretty much weighted to one side.
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That's as good and concise and intuitive an assessment I've seen to be honest....edmundintokyo said:The other problem reading early votes is that the Dems have organization without enthusiasm while the GOP have enthusiasm without organization. You'd think organization would get people out early, while enthusiasm would get them out on the day.
That said, and as clever as your analysis is....how does that help inform my betting strategy?
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"Glory" on BBC2 just finishing.tyson said:
If that is the Zombie flick, involving Peter Cushing, Christopher Lee and Telly Savalas with some Cossacks...it is an absolute masterpiece.Tykejohnno said:Excellent horror movie on the horror ch now - horror express.
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Wow. 21million jobs, this shows how weak the recovery has been.
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers
Total private-sector jobs created under
Obama: +11.2 million (so far)
GW Bush -0.4 million
Clinton: +21.0 million
GHW Bush: +1.5 million0 -
Decide if you think the other punters have any more clue than we do. If not, treat the early vote as a modest pro-Hillary data point. If yes, don't bet until you can find some proper analysis.tyson said:
That's as good and concise and intuitive an assessment I've seen to be honest....edmundintokyo said:The other problem reading early votes is that the Dems have organization without enthusiasm while the GOP have enthusiasm without organization. You'd think organization would get people out early, while enthusiasm would get them out on the day.
That said, and as clever as your analysis is....how does that help inform my betting strategy?0 -
That is a sublime movie...Mathew Broderick...and Morgan Freeman (I think)....Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Glory" on BBC2 just finishing.tyson said:
If that is the Zombie flick, involving Peter Cushing, Christopher Lee and Telly Savalas with some Cossacks...it is an absolute masterpiece.Tykejohnno said:Excellent horror movie on the horror ch now - horror express.
What a choice of movies for tonight.
I am (predictably) watching MoD on Iplayer.... slightly behind though....
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So far? Since all the action is going to be in the last few months, obviouslynunu said:Wow. 21million jobs, this shows how weak the recovery has been.
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers
Total private-sector jobs created under
Obama: +11.2 million (so far)
GW Bush -0.4 million
Clinton: +21.0 million
GHW Bush: +1.5 million
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The rough and ready but apparently accurate observation from previous elections in Florida is that early returns indicate the final result. It's just a question of who gets more. As the early returns are a dead heat that indicates a too close to call election result on that theory.edmundintokyo said:The other problem reading early votes is that the Dems have organization without enthusiasm while the GOP have enthusiasm without organization. You'd think organization would get people out early, while enthusiasm would get them out on the day.
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Delusions R Us:
Jeremy Corbyn gives Theresa May ultimatum: Agree to Labour's Brexit terms or I'll force election in spring
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-gives-theresa-ultimatum-92043930 -
Makes sense if the campaigns think CO and NV have gone Dem.williamglenn said:0 -
Was Cameron going to put Article 50 to a vote in the House of Commons?Scott_P said:
Indeed.kle4 said:The answer is not to be angry at what is a correct process to challenge government authority and those following that process without concern to the public will (since the public will is a matter for politicians, and we don't want our judges ruling the law is other than they think it is to satisfy public demand), it is to ensure that a) the government wins the appeal or b) if it does not, to fight to make sure attempts to stop Brexit do not succeed.
The person who is screwing up the process (and the one SeanT should be mad at) is May0 -
Very sound advice..... If you used that analysis on Brexit night (maybe you did) you could have made an absolute killing.....edmundintokyo said:
Decide if you think the other punters have any more clue than we do. If not, treat the early vote as a modest pro-Hillary data point. If yes, don't bet until you can find some proper analysis.tyson said:
That's as good and concise and intuitive an assessment I've seen to be honest....edmundintokyo said:The other problem reading early votes is that the Dems have organization without enthusiasm while the GOP have enthusiasm without organization. You'd think organization would get people out early, while enthusiasm would get them out on the day.
That said, and as clever as your analysis is....how does that help inform my betting strategy?
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As there has been minimal polling news, presumably this is a reaction to stories about a large Latino vote, particularly in Nevada and potentially in Florida and North Carolina.AndyJS said:Hillary Clinton has improved her position to 1.28 on Betfair.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419
Perhaps Trump's fighting talk about the Mexicans wasn't very bright.0 -
Glory is a superb filmtyson said:
That is a sublime movie...Mathew Broderick...and Morgan Freeman (I think)....Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Glory" on BBC2 just finishing.tyson said:
If that is the Zombie flick, involving Peter Cushing, Christopher Lee and Telly Savalas with some Cossacks...it is an absolute masterpiece.Tykejohnno said:Excellent horror movie on the horror ch now - horror express.
What a choice of movies for tonight.
I am (predictably) watching MoD on Iplayer.... slightly behind though....
This (completely unrelated) is my favourite book of the last several years.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mages-Blood-Moontide-Quartet-Book-ebook/dp/B0089XJY0M/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1478390694&sr=1-1&keywords=blood+of+the+mage
A stunning fantasy book that draws you in.
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I read into that the Democrats are more than happy having Trump fighting deep into their territory........his supply lines (i.e. North Carolina/Florida/Nevada and Colorado) are very vulnerable....edmundintokyo said:
Makes sense if the campaigns think CO and NV have gone Dem.williamglenn said:
Others could read that the Democrats are facing a Prussian late entry attack a la Waterloo and the war is lost........
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Sunîl my i pad is broke again can u fix please.0
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So as expected, if May wants a General Election, the FTPA shouldn't stand in her way.edmundintokyo said:Corbyn on an early GE:.
He said: “If the Government calls an election we’re ready for it.
“We have the members, the organisation and the enthusiasm. We welcome the challenge.
“It would give us the chance to put before the British people an alternative economic strategy for this country.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-gives-theresa-ultimatum-9204393
Labour has an awesome ground game - where have I heard that before :-)0 -
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He fixed the vote as best as he could, I dont really blame him for that it is normal politics. What it does show that is that remain could not win whatever.Essexit said:
He couldn't win despite the £9 million leaflets, the fixed Treasury forecasts, and the extension of the registration deadline (way beyond what the duration of the technical fault merited).Sean_F said:
There are many things he could have done to rig the vote, like enfranchising EU nationals, giving a higher weighting to voters under 30 than to voters under 60, or to richer voters than to poorer voters, but he didn't so we are where we are.IanB2 said:
All he had to do was give 16 and 17 year olds the vote, as Scotland had already done, and possibly also British citizens living abroad in the EU and elsewhere for longer than the 15-year cut off. But, as today's 'leak' of his conversation with Sturgeon reveals, he thought he could win regardless.SeanT said:
Yes, my opinion of him could not be lower. He was a disaster, and will be seen as such, in time. A man who catastrophically overrated himself. Eton has a lot to answer for.nunu said:
He said whatever suited him at the time like with Turkey. No one believed him when he said it won't be joining until the year 3,000 because he used to be Turkeys biggest cheerleader for joining.SeanT said:
Another Remainer lie. Cameron in fact said Britain could and would "thrive" outside the EU:Scott_P said:
Another Brexit meme that will never die.another_richard said:As PM Cameron liked making apologies for events in the past.
Perhaps he'd like to make one now for the mess he left.
Cameron said it would be a mess. He warned against voting for the mess. He campaigned against the mess.
You wanted the mess. Now you blame that guy that tried to stop you.
You won. Suck it up!
"EU referendum: Britain could thrive outside Europe, claims David Cameron"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-britain-could-thrive-outside-europe-claims-david-cameron-a6726606.html
He really was a fucking terrible prime minister.
All the talking out both sides of his mouth at the same time came back to bite him on the bum.
Maybe he should have shortened the opening hours and cut the numbers of polling stations in Leave areas. You know, one station for the whole of Clacton-on-Sea, located on the edges of Frinton, open from 7:00-7:30.0 -
You really are a piece of work RogerRoger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Very "progressive" I am sure.0 -
I avoid crApple products xNoEasyDay said:Sunîl my i pad is broke again can u fix please.
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Suppose there were a referendum on keeping the NHS or abolishing the NHS, and the abolition side won but without a plan for what would come next. Would it not be entirely proper for the nature of the health system to remain a contentious issue in domestic politics?Black_Rook said:0 -
“The story of this election may be the mobilization of the Hispanic vote,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, an anti-Trump Republican who has pleaded with his party to do more to win over Latinos. “So Trump deserves the award for Hispanic turnout. He did more to get them out than any Democrat has ever done.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-campaign.html0 -
Corbyn on the GE trail is going to be hilarious...sorry harassing...0
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I would be bitterly ironic for Trump if, having fought a winning campaign, it turned out to be his very first statement on entering the race that lost it for him.Chris said:“The story of this election may be the mobilization of the Hispanic vote,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, an anti-Trump Republican who has pleaded with his party to do more to win over Latinos. “So Trump deserves the award for Hispanic turnout. He did more to get them out than any Democrat has ever done.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-campaign.html0 -
k Hasen RetweetedChris said:“The story of this election may be the mobilization of the Hispanic vote,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, an anti-Trump Republican who has pleaded with his party to do more to win over Latinos. “So Trump deserves the award for Hispanic turnout. He did more to get them out than any Democrat has ever done.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-campaign.html
Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner 14m14 minutes ago
Chris Geidner Retweeted Igor Bobic
Nevada GOP Chair, Trump rally: "Last night, in Clark County, they kept a poll open until 10 o'clock at night so a certain group could vote."
Chris Geidner added,
Igor Bobic @igorbobic
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npbfWWP5HCs&feature=share …
0 replies . 34 retweets 19 likes
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I hope reopening Fabric will be in the manifesto...FrancisUrquhart said:Corbyn on the GE trail is going to be hilarious...sorry harassing...
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But here is an analysis of early voting by different racial groups, based on data up to last Tuesday, that concludes "the racial composition of the early vote may be enough to give Democrats pause and the Republicans hope."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/04/whos-voting-early-latino-turnout-is-surging-but-white-turnout-is-too/0 -
Good day to bury bad news?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3907336/Harvey-Proctor-accuses-Yard-Operation-Midland-PR-cover-up.html
Nothing else happening on November 8, is there?0 -
PLP hitting the nuclear button.Black_Rook said:0 -
It's tempting to think we can sit back and watch as the embarrassing shambles unfolds but I fear it's going to be much uglier than that.tyson said:
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.Roger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....
A new right wing alliance part Tory part UKIP forms the governent...... The Sun starts campaign to bring back hanging....... A referendum is promised.....The Mail leads a witch hunt against Judges liberals and the BBC....... The economy collapses.......Foreigners are targeted as the enemy within and the cause ......most leave voluntarily........the first execution for 50 years takes place...we become international pariahs.....
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......0 -
Those graphs look very good for Trump, particularly Florida.Chris said:But here is an analysis of early voting by different racial groups, based on data up to last Tuesday, that concludes "the racial composition of the early vote may be enough to give Democrats pause and the Republicans hope."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/04/whos-voting-early-latino-turnout-is-surging-but-white-turnout-is-too/0 -
Would you like to try and get any more OTT Roger?Roger said:
It's tempting to think we can sit back and watch as the embarrassing shambles unfolds but I fear it's going to be much uglier than that.tyson said:
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.Roger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....
A new right wing alliance part Tory part UKIP forms...... The Sun starts campaign to bring back hanging....... A referendum is promised.....The Mail leads a witch hunt against Judges liberals and the BBC....... The economy collapses.......Foreigners are targeted as the enemy within ......most leave voluntarily........the first execution in Europe takes place for 50 years...we become international pariahs.....
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......0 -
A little Levity - Labour voters think they're 'cool' (relatively), followed by UKIP voters:
Net 'Cool now':
Con: -35
Lab: -21
LibD: -32
UKIP: -29
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/92vgkvi8xz/InternalResults_161102_Coolness4CB_W.pdf0 -
You didn't strike me as someone who took the Daily Mail seriously........Roger said:
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......tyson said:
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.Roger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....0 -
That must be the first comment that you've made on here that isn't in support of Israel. I knew you could do it.Floater said:
You really are a piece of work RogerRoger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Very "progressive" I am sure.0 -
I didn't think anyone did until I saw the result of the referendumCarlottaVance said:
You didn't strike me as someone who took the Daily Mail seriously........Roger said:
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......tyson said:
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.Roger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....0 -
Ah, yes, I forgot you are a self-loathing Jew.Roger said:
That must be the first comment that you've made on here that isn't in support of Israel. I knew you could do it.Floater said:
You really are a piece of work RogerRoger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Very "progressive" I am sure.0 -
A "certain group"?nunu said:
k Hasen Retweeted
Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner 14m14 minutes ago
Chris Geidner Retweeted Igor Bobic
Nevada GOP Chair, Trump rally: "Last night, in Clark County, they kept a poll open until 10 o'clock at night so a certain group could vote."
Chris Geidner added,
Igor Bobic @igorbobic
Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=npbfWWP5HCs&feature=share …
0 replies . 34 retweets 19 likes
Vampires For Hillary!
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The Democrats should just try to win the thing. Work hard to keep Florida and Pennsylvania, and work to keep Virginia too, which takes less effort, and let him have Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada. Then who cares about Michigan? Unfortunately, they're likely to lose Florida and may well also lose Pennsylvania.tyson said:
I read into that the Democrats are more than happy having Trump fighting deep into their territory........his supply lines (i.e. North Carolina/Florida/Nevada and Colorado) are very vulnerable....edmundintokyo said:
Makes sense if the campaigns think CO and NV have gone Dem.williamglenn said:
Others could read that the Democrats are facing a Prussian late entry attack a la Waterloo and the war is lost........
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The Sun was far more important in that referendum.Roger said:
I didn't think anyone did until I saw the result of the referendumCarlottaVance said:
You didn't strike me as someone who took the Daily Mail seriously........Roger said:
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......tyson said:
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.Roger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....0 -
How on earth can the prime minister invoke Article 50 and at the same time "guarantee access to the single market", even if she wanted to?GIN1138 said:
PLP hitting the nuclear button.Black_Rook said:0 -
That depends what "access" means. If they phrase it as vaguely as that she could just say "I guarantee access to the single market" then say it was satisfied by WTO membership.Dromedary said:
How on earth can the prime minister invoke Article 50 and at the same time "guarantee access to the single market", even if she wanted to?GIN1138 said:
PLP hitting the nuclear button.Black_Rook said:0 -
Lewes exit poll: Trump 3 - 0 Clinton.
Looks like fun and games at a Trump rally in Reno, I wonder what that was all about?0 -
Trump hussled off stage in Reno by secret service0
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Live here. He's back on stage.OUT said:Trump hussled off stage in Reno by secret service
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQMUj6ETaNg0 -
Or just by the ability to buy and sell anything at all!edmundintokyo said:
That depends what "access" means. If they phrase it as vaguely as that she could just say "I guarantee access to the single market" then say it was satisfied by WTO membership.Dromedary said:
How on earth can the prime minister invoke Article 50 and at the same time "guarantee access to the single market", even if she wanted to?GIN1138 said:
PLP hitting the nuclear button.Black_Rook said:0 -
Oh dear - find, say 1 post I have made in support of Israel in the last 3 months.Roger said:
That must be the first comment that you've made on here that isn't in support of Israel. I knew you could do it.Floater said:
You really are a piece of work RogerRoger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Very "progressive" I am sure.
How about the last 6 months?
2 posts within the last 12 months? (just in case I ever made 1 )
You really are a sad joke0 -
Or possibly the Daily Mail takes its readers seriously......Roger said:
I didn't think anyone did until I saw the result of the referendumCarlottaVance said:
You didn't strike me as someone who took the Daily Mail seriously........Roger said:
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......tyson said:
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.Roger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....0 -
He later returned to the stage and declared "We are not going to be stopped". We're told that Trump has studied Hitler's speeches, but has he also looked at Mitterand's 1959 "Observatory Affair"?OUT said:Trump hussled off stage in Reno by secret service
Here he is being taken off:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvkkZC7WEeg
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Perhaps I am part of the Jewish conspiracy Roger.Roger said:
That must be the first comment that you've made on here that isn't in support of Israel. I knew you could do it.Floater said:
You really are a piece of work RogerRoger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Very "progressive" I am sure.
Better put on your tinfoil hat just in case.
Word to the (not so) wise - try not to post when you are drunk.
You look even more stupid than normal.0 -
Interesting to take a look at the 2012 result in Florida. Overall Obama won the state by 74,309 votes, and in Miami-Dade County by 208,459.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_20120 -
this is because of his rhetoric.Dromedary said:
He then returned to the stage and declared "We are not going to be stopped". We're told that Trump has studied Hitler's speeches, but has he also looked at Mitterand's 1959 "Observatory Affair"?OUT said:Trump hussled off stage in Reno by secret service
Here he is being taken off:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvkkZC7WEeg0 -
What's the Observatory Affair reference?Dromedary said:
He then returned to the stage and declared "We are not going to be stopped". We're told that Trump has studied Hitler's speeches, but has he also looked at Mitterand's 1959 "Observatory Affair"?OUT said:Trump hussled off stage in Reno by secret service
Here he is being taken off:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvkkZC7WEeg
There was a comment in the rally online chatroom along the lines of "I'm at the rally and I'm going to shoot him" and after the rally I've just heard the moderators say on the live broadcast that they contacted the Secret Service and someone was subsequently picked up.0 -
Okay, looked the reference up. Nice trick.GeoffM said:
What's the Observatory Affair reference?Dromedary said:
He then returned to the stage and declared "We are not going to be stopped". We're told that Trump has studied Hitler's speeches, but has he also looked at Mitterand's 1959 "Observatory Affair"?OUT said:Trump hussled off stage in Reno by secret service
Here he is being taken off:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvkkZC7WEeg
There was a comment in the rally online chatroom along the lines of "I'm at the rally and I'm going to shoot him" and after the rally I've just heard the moderators say on the live broadcast that they contacted the Secret Service and someone was subsequently picked up.0 -
The Observatory Affair was when Mitterand staged a fake assassination attempt against himself. With Roger Stone involved there are likely to be some filthy dirty tricks to come.GeoffM said:
What's the Observatory Affair reference?Dromedary said:
He then returned to the stage and declared "We are not going to be stopped". We're told that Trump has studied Hitler's speeches, but has he also looked at Mitterand's 1959 "Observatory Affair"?OUT said:Trump hussled off stage in Reno by secret service
Here he is being taken off:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvkkZC7WEeg
There was a comment in the rally online chatroom along the lines of "I'm at the rally and I'm going to shoot him" and after the rally I've just heard the moderators say on the live broadcast that they contacted the Secret Service and someone was subsequently picked up.0 -
I'm glad he's unharmed, but this event could have a major effect on voting.
Who are the guys in the military-style helmets?
Here is what he said when he returned to the stage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVNcM4rux740 -
The Tory majority just got 50 seats biggerBlack_Rook said:0 -
It was The Sunil wot won it!Dromedary said:
The Sun was far more important in that referendum.Roger said:
I didn't think anyone did until I saw the result of the referendumCarlottaVance said:
You didn't strike me as someone who took the Daily Mail seriously........Roger said:
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......tyson said:
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.Roger said:I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....0 -
North Korea has 'access to the Single Market'........Dromedary said:
How on earth can the prime minister invoke Article 50 and at the same time "guarantee access to the single market", even if she wanted to?GIN1138 said:
PLP hitting the nuclear button.Black_Rook said:0 -
are they likely to lose florida or PA? PA they lead massively, and in florida last few polls have a small clinton lead, and big EV Hispanic EVDromedary said:
The Democrats should just try to win the thing. Work hard to keep Florida and Pennsylvania, and work to keep Virginia too, which takes less effort, and let him have Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada. Then who cares about Michigan? Unfortunately, they're likely to lose Florida and may well also lose Pennsylvania.tyson said:
I read into that the Democrats are more than happy having Trump fighting deep into their territory........his supply lines (i.e. North Carolina/Florida/Nevada and Colorado) are very vulnerable....edmundintokyo said:
Makes sense if the campaigns think CO and NV have gone Dem.williamglenn said:
Others could read that the Democrats are facing a Prussian late entry attack a la Waterloo and the war is lost........0 -
hmmmm. doesnt say if the surge in white voters are with the educated or millenials. Or dems or Republicans. Or men and women. Clinton has leads with the young, Dems, educated and white womenChris said:But here is an analysis of early voting by different racial groups, based on data up to last Tuesday, that concludes "the racial composition of the early vote may be enough to give Democrats pause and the Republicans hope."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/04/whos-voting-early-latino-turnout-is-surging-but-white-turnout-is-too/0 -
This is true, but of the story being pushed is "Huge Latino turnout" then it seems important if it's really "huge turnout" or maybe just "more people finding out about early voting this year".619 said:
hmmmm. doesnt say if the surge in white voters are with the educated or millenials. Or dems or Republicans. Or men and women. Clinton has leads with the young, Dems, educated and white womenChris said:But here is an analysis of early voting by different racial groups, based on data up to last Tuesday, that concludes "the racial composition of the early vote may be enough to give Democrats pause and the Republicans hope."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/04/whos-voting-early-latino-turnout-is-surging-but-white-turnout-is-too/0 -
There's evidence of white Dem women voting in higher numbers than 2012 in N.Carolina and Fl.619 said:
hmmmm. doesnt say if the surge in white voters are with the educated or millenials. Or dems or Republicans. Or men and women. Clinton has leads with the young, Dems, educated and white womenChris said:But here is an analysis of early voting by different racial groups, based on data up to last Tuesday, that concludes "the racial composition of the early vote may be enough to give Democrats pause and the Republicans hope."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/04/whos-voting-early-latino-turnout-is-surging-but-white-turnout-is-too/
https://mobile.twitter.com/electionsmith/status/795061208143560704/photo/3
https://mobile.twitter.com/electionsmith/status/795064770324004864
This is FL.0 -
yeah, but one of the stats i saw had 24% of latino voters being newly registered ones who never voted before, and the Dems certainly spinning that a low of them are unlikely to have lreviously voted voters.edmundintokyo said:
This is true, but of the story being pushed is "Huge Latino turnout" then it seems important if it's really "huge turnout" or maybe just "more people finding out about early voting this year".619 said:
hmmmm. doesnt say if the surge in white voters are with the educated or millenials. Or dems or Republicans. Or men and women. Clinton has leads with the young, Dems, educated and white womenChris said:But here is an analysis of early voting by different racial groups, based on data up to last Tuesday, that concludes "the racial composition of the early vote may be enough to give Democrats pause and the Republicans hope."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/04/whos-voting-early-latino-turnout-is-surging-but-white-turnout-is-too/0 -
Yup, the interesting part is when you compare with the pollsters' likely voter screens and see which unlikely voters are unlikelily voting.619 said:
yeah, but one of the stats i saw had 24% of latino voters being newly registered ones who never voted before, and the Dems certainly spinning that a low of them are unlikely to have lreviously voted voters.edmundintokyo said:
This is true, but of the story being pushed is "Huge Latino turnout" then it seems important if it's really "huge turnout" or maybe just "more people finding out about early voting this year".619 said:
hmmmm. doesnt say if the surge in white voters are with the educated or millenials. Or dems or Republicans. Or men and women. Clinton has leads with the young, Dems, educated and white womenChris said:But here is an analysis of early voting by different racial groups, based on data up to last Tuesday, that concludes "the racial composition of the early vote may be enough to give Democrats pause and the Republicans hope."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/04/whos-voting-early-latino-turnout-is-surging-but-white-turnout-is-too/0 -
Could McMullin win it for Clinton ?
Shouldn't a die-hard Democrat vote McMullin and other Democrats down ballot ?
https://heatst.com/politics/final-utah-poll-evan-mcmullin-beats-clinton-closes-trump/0 -
New Hampshire is the one I am worried about. Nevada seems to be for Clinton.0
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I hope this is true. Then I am back supporting Labour-Corbyn.Black_Rook said:0 -
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Labour has an awesome ground game - where have I heard that before :-)Floater said:
So as expected, if May wants a General Election, the FTPA shouldn't stand in her way.edmundintokyo said:Corbyn on an early GE:.
He said: “If the Government calls an election we’re ready for it.
“We have the members, the organisation and the enthusiasm. We welcome the challenge.
“It would give us the chance to put before the British people an alternative economic strategy for this country.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-gives-theresa-ultimatum-9204393
---------------------------
MattW:
I rather think Mr Corbyn is a natural optimist. Perhaps it comes from growing vegetables in Islington.0 -
Some of us have bought cars by £5 bidding eg £4605 at an auction :-)edmundintokyo said:
Random precision has benefits!0 -
Google has been known to make bids where the insignificant amounts happen to be mathematically important numbers - e, pi, phi etc.MattW said:
Some of us have bought cars by £5 bidding eg £4605 at an auction :-)edmundintokyo said:
Random precision has benefits!0
