Is there a site anywhere that analyses early voting systematically, like 538 does for polls? I'm having a really hard time working out what it all means if anything, and a lot of the commentary will be prone to confirmation bias.
Miami Herald provides good coverage in Florida. It seems to be an absolute knife edge with just 7000 votes separating the candidates on 6 million cast. The ballots haven't been opened so there may be discrepancies at that stage.
It's very hard to analyse because the data, both hard and anecdotal, are completely all over the place.
I've given up reading reports of polling, there are so many pollsters, so many different types of poll, and so much spin that I can not make head nor tail of it. Anything between a Clinton landslide and Trump squeaking it seems possible based on what I've read.
If the parameters are 'landslide' and 'squeaking it', that suggest the possibilities are pretty much weighted to one side.
He said whatever suited him at the time like with Turkey. No one believed him when he said it won't be joining until the year 3,000 because he used to be Turkeys biggest cheerleader for joining.
All the talking out both sides of his mouth at the same time came back to bite him on the bum.
Yes, my opinion of him could not be lower. He was a disaster, and will be seen as such, in time. A man who catastrophically overrated himself. Eton has a lot to answer for.
All he had to do was give 16 and 17 year olds the vote, as Scotland had already done, and possibly also British citizens living abroad in the EU and elsewhere for longer than the 15-year cut off. But, as today's 'leak' of his conversation with Sturgeon reveals, he thought he could win regardless.
I sympathise with Remainers, having Cameron at the helm in this referendum. Possibly the only prime minister in recent history who could have lost it. Arrogant and inept, lazy and myopic at the same time: just the worst combination. Refused Crosby's advice to delay the vote. A political midget in platform shoes.
An irony is that Britain might well have voted to join the Euro if Blair had campaigned for it at his peak.
No. If he'd thought he could win he'd have called the referendum.
It's not the legal ruling itself (apart from the very questionable role of Baron Thomas, who should have recused himself) which troubles me, is that the legal ruling was clearly part of a concerted attempt to derail Brexit entirely.
So the courts are being used to subvert democracy. This should stop.
The answer is not to be angry at what is a correct process to challenge government authority and those following that process without concern to the public will (since the public will is a matter for politicians, and we don't want our judges ruling the law is other than they think it is to satisfy public demand), it is to ensure that a) the government wins the appeal or b) if it does not, to fight to make sure attempts to stop Brexit do not succeed.
That people are using a process for their own ends to thwart the rederendum does not mean that process is incorrect. Our system did not make the democratic vote binding, that is an inescapable fact, which means someone has to formalise the democratic expression. The argument is over whether that is the government alone or parliament. If the law is it is not the government, that makes the process a little harder, but that's the law, and no talk of subverting democracy will change that, particularly since parliament had the power to ensure this question could never have been asked in the first place by being more explicit.
When people fight you within the rules, the answer is not to ignore the rules, it's to fight them back within the rules. I've said before and I'll say again, its a similar issue to that of free speech - in order to prevent inhibition of valuable speech, there will be much offensive and unworthy speech also protected. And in order to preserve the ability to challenge the government deciding for itself what is and is not within its power, which is a fundamental principle, that will mean there will be times when many unworthy challenges (or challenges used for ulterior motivations) occur.
Frustrating that the motivation eclipses all else, understandably, but the idea challenges should stop because the motivation of this one is undemocratic seems to me to have far more reaching and dangerous implications than accepting (should the gov lose the appeal, naturally) that the government misinterpreted the law, and will have to work a little bit harder to implement the result.
The result has not been prevented from implementation even if the ruling is upheld; it just means May will have to deal with a little more frustration in crossing Ts and dotting Is (or culling the Lords if they play silly buggers). Unfortunate for her, but better that occur than we suggest the government not be challengable so long as they are doing something popular, no matter what the law parliament itself sets may say.
Is there a site anywhere that analyses early voting systematically, like 538 does for polls? I'm having a really hard time working out what it all means if anything, and a lot of the commentary will be prone to confirmation bias.
Miami Herald provides good coverage in Florida. It seems to be an absolute knife edge with just 7000 votes separating the candidates on 6 million cast. The ballots haven't been opened so there may be discrepancies at that stage.
The problem is getting from the raw numbers to the extrapolation for the general result. It's hard because you need to know: 1) Results in previous years 2) Changes in the rules that may have caused the result to deviate.
the judges ignored the fact that parliament voted for the referendum and ignored the fact that Government would carry out the will of the people, which I might add was in the referendum legislation.
No they didn't
What they said was the executive can't strip citizen's rights without going through Parliament. They said "Government by whim" is illegal.
Which should be applauded, especially by Brexiteers who claimed that was what they wanted all along.
The answer is not to be angry at what is a correct process to challenge government authority and those following that process without concern to the public will (since the public will is a matter for politicians, and we don't want our judges ruling the law is other than they think it is to satisfy public demand), it is to ensure that a) the government wins the appeal or b) if it does not, to fight to make sure attempts to stop Brexit do not succeed.
Indeed.
The person who is screwing up the process (and the one SeanT should be mad at) is May
The other problem reading early votes is that the Dems have organization without enthusiasm while the GOP have enthusiasm without organization. You'd think organization would get people out early, while enthusiasm would get them out on the day.
He said whatever suited him at the time like with Turkey. No one believed him when he said it won't be joining until the year 3,000 because he used to be Turkeys biggest cheerleader for joining.
All the talking out both sides of his mouth at the same time came back to bite him on the bum.
Yes, my opinion of him could not be lower. He was a disaster, and will be seen as such, in time. A man who catastrophically overrated himself. Eton has a lot to answer for.
All he had to do was give 16 and 17 year olds the vote, as Scotland had already done, and possibly also British citizens living abroad in the EU and elsewhere for longer than the 15-year cut off. But, as today's 'leak' of his conversation with Sturgeon reveals, he thought he could win regardless.
There are many things he could have done to rig the vote, like enfranchising EU nationals, giving a higher weighting to voters under 30 than to voters under 60, or to richer voters than to poorer voters, but he didn't so we are where we are.
He couldn't win despite the £9 million leaflets, the fixed Treasury forecasts, and the extension of the registration deadline (way beyond what the duration of the technical fault merited).
Maybe he should have shortened the opening hours and cut the numbers of polling stations in Leave areas. You know, one station for the whole of Clacton-on-Sea, located on the edges of Frinton, open from 7:00-7:30.
The other problem reading early votes is that the Dems have organization without enthusiasm while the GOP have enthusiasm without organization. You'd think organization would get people out early, while enthusiasm would get them out on the day.
That's as good and concise and intuitive an assessment I've seen to be honest....
That said, and as clever as your analysis is....how does that help inform my betting strategy?
Wow. 21million jobs, this shows how weak the recovery has been.
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers Total private-sector jobs created under Obama: +11.2 million (so far) GW Bush -0.4 million Clinton: +21.0 million GHW Bush: +1.5 million
The other problem reading early votes is that the Dems have organization without enthusiasm while the GOP have enthusiasm without organization. You'd think organization would get people out early, while enthusiasm would get them out on the day.
That's as good and concise and intuitive an assessment I've seen to be honest....
That said, and as clever as your analysis is....how does that help inform my betting strategy?
Decide if you think the other punters have any more clue than we do. If not, treat the early vote as a modest pro-Hillary data point. If yes, don't bet until you can find some proper analysis.
Wow. 21million jobs, this shows how weak the recovery has been.
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers Total private-sector jobs created under Obama: +11.2 million (so far) GW Bush -0.4 million Clinton: +21.0 million GHW Bush: +1.5 million
So far? Since all the action is going to be in the last few months, obviously
The other problem reading early votes is that the Dems have organization without enthusiasm while the GOP have enthusiasm without organization. You'd think organization would get people out early, while enthusiasm would get them out on the day.
The rough and ready but apparently accurate observation from previous elections in Florida is that early returns indicate the final result. It's just a question of who gets more. As the early returns are a dead heat that indicates a too close to call election result on that theory.
The answer is not to be angry at what is a correct process to challenge government authority and those following that process without concern to the public will (since the public will is a matter for politicians, and we don't want our judges ruling the law is other than they think it is to satisfy public demand), it is to ensure that a) the government wins the appeal or b) if it does not, to fight to make sure attempts to stop Brexit do not succeed.
Indeed.
The person who is screwing up the process (and the one SeanT should be mad at) is May
Was Cameron going to put Article 50 to a vote in the House of Commons?
The other problem reading early votes is that the Dems have organization without enthusiasm while the GOP have enthusiasm without organization. You'd think organization would get people out early, while enthusiasm would get them out on the day.
That's as good and concise and intuitive an assessment I've seen to be honest....
That said, and as clever as your analysis is....how does that help inform my betting strategy?
Decide if you think the other punters have any more clue than we do. If not, treat the early vote as a modest pro-Hillary data point. If yes, don't bet until you can find some proper analysis.
Very sound advice..... If you used that analysis on Brexit night (maybe you did) you could have made an absolute killing.....
As there has been minimal polling news, presumably this is a reaction to stories about a large Latino vote, particularly in Nevada and potentially in Florida and North Carolina.
Perhaps Trump's fighting talk about the Mexicans wasn't very bright.
Makes sense if the campaigns think CO and NV have gone Dem.
I read into that the Democrats are more than happy having Trump fighting deep into their territory........his supply lines (i.e. North Carolina/Florida/Nevada and Colorado) are very vulnerable....
Others could read that the Democrats are facing a Prussian late entry attack a la Waterloo and the war is lost........
He said whatever suited him at the time like with Turkey. No one believed him when he said it won't be joining until the year 3,000 because he used to be Turkeys biggest cheerleader for joining.
All the talking out both sides of his mouth at the same time came back to bite him on the bum.
Yes, my opinion of him could not be lower. He was a disaster, and will be seen as such, in time. A man who catastrophically overrated himself. Eton has a lot to answer for.
All he had to do was give 16 and 17 year olds the vote, as Scotland had already done, and possibly also British citizens living abroad in the EU and elsewhere for longer than the 15-year cut off. But, as today's 'leak' of his conversation with Sturgeon reveals, he thought he could win regardless.
There are many things he could have done to rig the vote, like enfranchising EU nationals, giving a higher weighting to voters under 30 than to voters under 60, or to richer voters than to poorer voters, but he didn't so we are where we are.
He couldn't win despite the £9 million leaflets, the fixed Treasury forecasts, and the extension of the registration deadline (way beyond what the duration of the technical fault merited).
Maybe he should have shortened the opening hours and cut the numbers of polling stations in Leave areas. You know, one station for the whole of Clacton-on-Sea, located on the edges of Frinton, open from 7:00-7:30.
He fixed the vote as best as he could, I dont really blame him for that it is normal politics. What it does show that is that remain could not win whatever.
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Suppose there were a referendum on keeping the NHS or abolishing the NHS, and the abolition side won but without a plan for what would come next. Would it not be entirely proper for the nature of the health system to remain a contentious issue in domestic politics?
“The story of this election may be the mobilization of the Hispanic vote,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, an anti-Trump Republican who has pleaded with his party to do more to win over Latinos. “So Trump deserves the award for Hispanic turnout. He did more to get them out than any Democrat has ever done.” http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-campaign.html
“The story of this election may be the mobilization of the Hispanic vote,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, an anti-Trump Republican who has pleaded with his party to do more to win over Latinos. “So Trump deserves the award for Hispanic turnout. He did more to get them out than any Democrat has ever done.” http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-campaign.html
I would be bitterly ironic for Trump if, having fought a winning campaign, it turned out to be his very first statement on entering the race that lost it for him.
“The story of this election may be the mobilization of the Hispanic vote,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, an anti-Trump Republican who has pleaded with his party to do more to win over Latinos. “So Trump deserves the award for Hispanic turnout. He did more to get them out than any Democrat has ever done.” http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-campaign.html
k Hasen Retweeted Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner 14m14 minutes ago
Chris Geidner Retweeted Igor Bobic
Nevada GOP Chair, Trump rally: "Last night, in Clark County, they kept a poll open until 10 o'clock at night so a certain group could vote."
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....
It's tempting to think we can sit back and watch as the embarrassing shambles unfolds but I fear it's going to be much uglier than that.
A new right wing alliance part Tory part UKIP forms the governent...... The Sun starts campaign to bring back hanging....... A referendum is promised.....The Mail leads a witch hunt against Judges liberals and the BBC....... The economy collapses.......Foreigners are targeted as the enemy within and the cause ......most leave voluntarily........the first execution for 50 years takes place...we become international pariahs.....
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....
It's tempting to think we can sit back and watch as the embarrassing shambles unfolds but I fear it's going to be much uglier than that.
A new right wing alliance part Tory part UKIP forms...... The Sun starts campaign to bring back hanging....... A referendum is promised.....The Mail leads a witch hunt against Judges liberals and the BBC....... The economy collapses.......Foreigners are targeted as the enemy within ......most leave voluntarily........the first execution in Europe takes place for 50 years...we become international pariahs.....
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......
You didn't strike me as someone who took the Daily Mail seriously........
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
You really are a piece of work Roger
Very "progressive" I am sure.
That must be the first comment that you've made on here that isn't in support of Israel. I knew you could do it.
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......
You didn't strike me as someone who took the Daily Mail seriously........
I didn't think anyone did until I saw the result of the referendum
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
You really are a piece of work Roger
Very "progressive" I am sure.
That must be the first comment that you've made on here that isn't in support of Israel. I knew you could do it.
Makes sense if the campaigns think CO and NV have gone Dem.
I read into that the Democrats are more than happy having Trump fighting deep into their territory........his supply lines (i.e. North Carolina/Florida/Nevada and Colorado) are very vulnerable....
Others could read that the Democrats are facing a Prussian late entry attack a la Waterloo and the war is lost........
The Democrats should just try to win the thing. Work hard to keep Florida and Pennsylvania, and work to keep Virginia too, which takes less effort, and let him have Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada. Then who cares about Michigan? Unfortunately, they're likely to lose Florida and may well also lose Pennsylvania.
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......
You didn't strike me as someone who took the Daily Mail seriously........
I didn't think anyone did until I saw the result of the referendum
The Sun was far more important in that referendum.
How on earth can the prime minister invoke Article 50 and at the same time "guarantee access to the single market", even if she wanted to?
That depends what "access" means. If they phrase it as vaguely as that she could just say "I guarantee access to the single market" then say it was satisfied by WTO membership.
How on earth can the prime minister invoke Article 50 and at the same time "guarantee access to the single market", even if she wanted to?
That depends what "access" means. If they phrase it as vaguely as that she could just say "I guarantee access to the single market" then say it was satisfied by WTO membership.
Or just by the ability to buy and sell anything at all!
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
You really are a piece of work Roger
Very "progressive" I am sure.
That must be the first comment that you've made on here that isn't in support of Israel. I knew you could do it.
Oh dear - find, say 1 post I have made in support of Israel in the last 3 months.
How about the last 6 months?
2 posts within the last 12 months? (just in case I ever made 1 )
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......
You didn't strike me as someone who took the Daily Mail seriously........
I didn't think anyone did until I saw the result of the referendum
Or possibly the Daily Mail takes its readers seriously......
He later returned to the stage and declared "We are not going to be stopped". We're told that Trump has studied Hitler's speeches, but has he also looked at Mitterand's 1959 "Observatory Affair"?
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
You really are a piece of work Roger
Very "progressive" I am sure.
That must be the first comment that you've made on here that isn't in support of Israel. I knew you could do it.
Perhaps I am part of the Jewish conspiracy Roger.
Better put on your tinfoil hat just in case.
Word to the (not so) wise - try not to post when you are drunk.
He then returned to the stage and declared "We are not going to be stopped". We're told that Trump has studied Hitler's speeches, but has he also looked at Mitterand's 1959 "Observatory Affair"?
He then returned to the stage and declared "We are not going to be stopped". We're told that Trump has studied Hitler's speeches, but has he also looked at Mitterand's 1959 "Observatory Affair"?
Here he is being taken off:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvkkZC7WEeg
What's the Observatory Affair reference?
There was a comment in the rally online chatroom along the lines of "I'm at the rally and I'm going to shoot him" and after the rally I've just heard the moderators say on the live broadcast that they contacted the Secret Service and someone was subsequently picked up.
He then returned to the stage and declared "We are not going to be stopped". We're told that Trump has studied Hitler's speeches, but has he also looked at Mitterand's 1959 "Observatory Affair"?
Here he is being taken off:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvkkZC7WEeg
What's the Observatory Affair reference?
There was a comment in the rally online chatroom along the lines of "I'm at the rally and I'm going to shoot him" and after the rally I've just heard the moderators say on the live broadcast that they contacted the Secret Service and someone was subsequently picked up.
He then returned to the stage and declared "We are not going to be stopped". We're told that Trump has studied Hitler's speeches, but has he also looked at Mitterand's 1959 "Observatory Affair"?
Here he is being taken off:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvkkZC7WEeg
What's the Observatory Affair reference?
There was a comment in the rally online chatroom along the lines of "I'm at the rally and I'm going to shoot him" and after the rally I've just heard the moderators say on the live broadcast that they contacted the Secret Service and someone was subsequently picked up.
The Observatory Affair was when Mitterand staged a fake assassination attempt against himself. With Roger Stone involved there are likely to be some filthy dirty tricks to come.
I'm sure if the time arrives that the government of the day accepts a referendum on Sharia Law and and based on ignorance and a false prospectus it goes through those who voted against it will not go quietly.
There are some things that are part of the fabric of the nation. Many on here have been part of the EU since they were born. That Farage and co aided by a xenophobic foreign owned press persuaded a narrow majority of mainly stupid people that they were going to enter the promised land just isn't good enough
Roger...it has to be a hard Brexit with all that entails...and the sooner the better......There is no other way around it.
Maybe in a ten to fifteen years we can have another look, but we have to go through a hell of alot of pain before then....
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......
You didn't strike me as someone who took the Daily Mail seriously........
I didn't think anyone did until I saw the result of the referendum
The Sun was far more important in that referendum.
Makes sense if the campaigns think CO and NV have gone Dem.
I read into that the Democrats are more than happy having Trump fighting deep into their territory........his supply lines (i.e. North Carolina/Florida/Nevada and Colorado) are very vulnerable....
Others could read that the Democrats are facing a Prussian late entry attack a la Waterloo and the war is lost........
The Democrats should just try to win the thing. Work hard to keep Florida and Pennsylvania, and work to keep Virginia too, which takes less effort, and let him have Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada. Then who cares about Michigan? Unfortunately, they're likely to lose Florida and may well also lose Pennsylvania.
are they likely to lose florida or PA? PA they lead massively, and in florida last few polls have a small clinton lead, and big EV Hispanic EV
hmmmm. doesnt say if the surge in white voters are with the educated or millenials. Or dems or Republicans. Or men and women. Clinton has leads with the young, Dems, educated and white women
hmmmm. doesnt say if the surge in white voters are with the educated or millenials. Or dems or Republicans. Or men and women. Clinton has leads with the young, Dems, educated and white women
This is true, but of the story being pushed is "Huge Latino turnout" then it seems important if it's really "huge turnout" or maybe just "more people finding out about early voting this year".
hmmmm. doesnt say if the surge in white voters are with the educated or millenials. Or dems or Republicans. Or men and women. Clinton has leads with the young, Dems, educated and white women
There's evidence of white Dem women voting in higher numbers than 2012 in N.Carolina and Fl.
hmmmm. doesnt say if the surge in white voters are with the educated or millenials. Or dems or Republicans. Or men and women. Clinton has leads with the young, Dems, educated and white women
This is true, but of the story being pushed is "Huge Latino turnout" then it seems important if it's really "huge turnout" or maybe just "more people finding out about early voting this year".
yeah, but one of the stats i saw had 24% of latino voters being newly registered ones who never voted before, and the Dems certainly spinning that a low of them are unlikely to have lreviously voted voters.
hmmmm. doesnt say if the surge in white voters are with the educated or millenials. Or dems or Republicans. Or men and women. Clinton has leads with the young, Dems, educated and white women
This is true, but of the story being pushed is "Huge Latino turnout" then it seems important if it's really "huge turnout" or maybe just "more people finding out about early voting this year".
yeah, but one of the stats i saw had 24% of latino voters being newly registered ones who never voted before, and the Dems certainly spinning that a low of them are unlikely to have lreviously voted voters.
Yup, the interesting part is when you compare with the pollsters' likely voter screens and see which unlikely voters are unlikelily voting.
Comments
"It doesn't matter who wins the US election. The decadent West is in terminal decline
Christopher Booker"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/05/it-doesnt-matter-who-wins-the-us-election-the-decadent-west-is-i/
They will never run out of imagined "betrayal" to whine about.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419
That people are using a process for their own ends to thwart the rederendum does not mean that process is incorrect. Our system did not make the democratic vote binding, that is an inescapable fact, which means someone has to formalise the democratic expression. The argument is over whether that is the government alone or parliament. If the law is it is not the government, that makes the process a little harder, but that's the law, and no talk of subverting democracy will change that, particularly since parliament had the power to ensure this question could never have been asked in the first place by being more explicit.
When people fight you within the rules, the answer is not to ignore the rules, it's to fight them back within the rules. I've said before and I'll say again, its a similar issue to that of free speech - in order to prevent inhibition of valuable speech, there will be much offensive and unworthy speech also protected. And in order to preserve the ability to challenge the government deciding for itself what is and is not within its power, which is a fundamental principle, that will mean there will be times when many unworthy challenges (or challenges used for ulterior motivations) occur.
Frustrating that the motivation eclipses all else, understandably, but the idea challenges should stop because the motivation of this one is undemocratic seems to me to have far more reaching and dangerous implications than accepting (should the gov lose the appeal, naturally) that the government misinterpreted the law, and will have to work a little bit harder to implement the result.
The result has not been prevented from implementation even if the ruling is upheld; it just means May will have to deal with a little more frustration in crossing Ts and dotting Is (or culling the Lords if they play silly buggers). Unfortunate for her, but better that occur than we suggest the government not be challengable so long as they are doing something popular, no matter what the law parliament itself sets may say.
1) Results in previous years
2) Changes in the rules that may have caused the result to deviate.
What they said was the executive can't strip citizen's rights without going through Parliament. They said "Government by whim" is illegal.
Which should be applauded, especially by Brexiteers who claimed that was what they wanted all along.
Unless they were not being truthful.
The person who is screwing up the process (and the one SeanT should be mad at) is May
Maybe he should have shortened the opening hours and cut the numbers of polling stations in Leave areas. You know, one station for the whole of Clacton-on-Sea, located on the edges of Frinton, open from 7:00-7:30.
That said, and as clever as your analysis is....how does that help inform my betting strategy?
Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers
Total private-sector jobs created under
Obama: +11.2 million (so far)
GW Bush -0.4 million
Clinton: +21.0 million
GHW Bush: +1.5 million
What a choice of movies for tonight.
I am (predictably) watching MoD on Iplayer.... slightly behind though....
Jeremy Corbyn gives Theresa May ultimatum: Agree to Labour's Brexit terms or I'll force election in spring
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-gives-theresa-ultimatum-9204393
Perhaps Trump's fighting talk about the Mexicans wasn't very bright.
This (completely unrelated) is my favourite book of the last several years.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mages-Blood-Moontide-Quartet-Book-ebook/dp/B0089XJY0M/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1478390694&sr=1-1&keywords=blood+of+the+mage
A stunning fantasy book that draws you in.
Others could read that the Democrats are facing a Prussian late entry attack a la Waterloo and the war is lost........
Labour has an awesome ground game - where have I heard that before :-)
https://twitter.com/labourleave/status/795028485261717504
Very "progressive" I am sure.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-campaign.html
Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner 14m14 minutes ago
Chris Geidner Retweeted Igor Bobic
Nevada GOP Chair, Trump rally: "Last night, in Clark County, they kept a poll open until 10 o'clock at night so a certain group could vote."
Chris Geidner added,
Igor Bobic @igorbobic
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npbfWWP5HCs&feature=share …
0 replies . 34 retweets 19 likes
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/04/whos-voting-early-latino-turnout-is-surging-but-white-turnout-is-too/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3907336/Harvey-Proctor-accuses-Yard-Operation-Midland-PR-cover-up.html
Nothing else happening on November 8, is there?
A new right wing alliance part Tory part UKIP forms the governent...... The Sun starts campaign to bring back hanging....... A referendum is promised.....The Mail leads a witch hunt against Judges liberals and the BBC....... The economy collapses.......Foreigners are targeted as the enemy within and the cause ......most leave voluntarily........the first execution for 50 years takes place...we become international pariahs.....
If this seems unlikely look at yesterday's Daily Mail. Day 1......
Net 'Cool now':
Con: -35
Lab: -21
LibD: -32
UKIP: -29
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/92vgkvi8xz/InternalResults_161102_Coolness4CB_W.pdf
Vampires For Hillary!
Looks like fun and games at a Trump rally in Reno, I wonder what that was all about?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQMUj6ETaNg
How about the last 6 months?
2 posts within the last 12 months? (just in case I ever made 1 )
You really are a sad joke
Here he is being taken off:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvkkZC7WEeg
Better put on your tinfoil hat just in case.
Word to the (not so) wise - try not to post when you are drunk.
You look even more stupid than normal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_2012
There was a comment in the rally online chatroom along the lines of "I'm at the rally and I'm going to shoot him" and after the rally I've just heard the moderators say on the live broadcast that they contacted the Secret Service and someone was subsequently picked up.
Who are the guys in the military-style helmets?
Here is what he said when he returned to the stage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVNcM4rux74
https://mobile.twitter.com/electionsmith/status/795061208143560704/photo/3
https://mobile.twitter.com/electionsmith/status/795064770324004864
This is FL.
Shouldn't a die-hard Democrat vote McMullin and other Democrats down ballot ?
https://heatst.com/politics/final-utah-poll-evan-mcmullin-beats-clinton-closes-trump/
---------------------------
MattW:
I rather think Mr Corbyn is a natural optimist. Perhaps it comes from growing vegetables in Islington.
Random precision has benefits!