politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The legacy from the coalition that ties Theresa May’s hands on
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I think you are misunderstanding it mate. He has NC 48.3% Clinton 51.7% trump, basically a tossAlistair said:
Yeah, I am not trusting Cohn's analysis at all. I think Trump has won NC.Chris said:
I see the latest update of Nate Cohn's North Carolina analysis shows Hillary Clinton's projected lead up to 6.4%.619 said:
This is essentially a recalibration of a poll from a fortnight ago, based on demographic data about early voters. As the polls have shifted since then, it certainly can't be taken at face value, but his initial projection was a 6% Clinton lead, so it does imply that in demographic terms the turnout so far is better than had been expected for Clinton.
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"Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.
Trump's path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day -- and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely -- to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid's Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature."
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog0 -
I have a question to ask.
Has anybody yet seen any analysis of the implications of this ruling for a second Scottish referendum?0 -
Clinton's spread with Sporting's ECV market is tonight higher still at 305 - 315 that's up a huge 20 ECVs over the past 24 hours. Trump is 84 ECVs behind on 221 - 231.
Shades of Kenneth Wolstenhome some 50 years ago : "The crowd are coming onto the pitch, they think it's all over ....... "
Should it nudge up a few more points tomorrow or on Monday, I'll be getting out - it's been a hairy ride over the past 8 days, having initially looked like a free money tree. I certainly didn't appreciate Sporting closing this market for 3 days earlier this week, thereby preventing me from trading out then and as for their 15 point margin, since aped by Spreadex, words fail me.0 -
Please do not feed theSunil_Prasannan said:
The same AV wot was rejected by the UK public by 68% to 32%?TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't tell anyone, but constitutional (law) discussions give me the horn. It is the only subject I find more exciting than AV.tyson said:Blinking heckers...trying to wade through all this legal twaddle to try and find some nuggets on the US election is hard going. I'm mean FFS...it's the Saturday before the biggest betting night in politics ever...
TSE....can you not just create some kind of junk folder where all these endless and boring legal posts go. To think there could well be years of this to come,,,and those talking about bloody trade deals too. Oh gawd......
Just remember, the last chap who thought about challenging Parliamentary sovereignty had his head chopped off, and he was only the King of England.
BTW James II was overthrown peacefully-ish.Moderatortroll. Life is too short...!0 -
Tomkins is a total donkeyCarlottaVance said:
Prof Tomkins:SeanT said:
Carl Gardner, a senior legal Remainer, thinks the judgement was rubbish, or, as he puts it, surprising, problematic, and wrongly decided.IanB2 said:
Except that all of us can read their judgement in full, and there is no bias that is apparent. Cromwell won the civil war and they are simply respecting the result.SeanT said:
I've given you evidence, which you have studiously ignored. Baron Thomas, who ruled on A50:AlastairMeeks said:
There is a big difference between criticising judges and accusing them of bias. Friday morning's front pages were unprecedented and based on the flimsiest of evidence.Sean_F said:There does seem to be a view that for the Press to criticise judges (however ignorant that criticism may be) is akin to blasphemy. I think the judges are quite capable of ignoring criticism
"is one of the Founding Members of the European Law Institute, a non-profit organisation that conducts research, makes recommendations and provides practical guidance in the field of European legal development with a goal of enhancing the European legal integration."
He should have recused himself. Clear conflict of interest.
I am less concerned by the openly gay fencer.
Herein lies the fatal flaw in the third step of the High Court’s reasoning: how can the 1972 Parliament coherently be said to have intended an outcome that was not established in our constitutional law until nearly thirty years later? A ruling that relies on the proposition that the European Communities Act must be interpreted as if its authors intended their work to prevent ministers from exercising their prerogative powers over the making and unmaking of treaties is one that is inevitably anachronistic. It is therefore an irrational conclusion and, for that reason, there must surely be at least the prospect that the UK Supreme Court will in time overturn this week’s High Court ruling.0 -
I'll assure you that the Buffalo Bills are not going to win the Superbowl.rottenborough said:"Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.
Trump's path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day -- and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely -- to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid's Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature."
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog0 -
An object lesson in Trump's demagogic mendacity:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/05/donald_trump_flat_out_lies_about_obama_s_reaction_to_a_protester_at_rally.html0 -
So, what will happen?GIN1138 said:
And this is exactly why, if the establishment don't get their head out of the clouds and start coming to terms with the referendum pretty soon, things might actually turn very nasty.another_richard said:
Indeed.glw said:
Exactly, all we did is believe what were told and vote, it's not our fault that the country is run by weasels.another_richard said:Not the ordinary person's, not even the media's but the people who are in charge of the country - politicians, judges, bankers etc
To the average person this looks like some shysters wriggling out of what they had promised.
Trust has gone.
The A50 judgement is only the latest straw after endless lies on immigration, the bankers walking away with their millions, politicians and their expenses, Philip Green and the BHS pension fund, tax dodgers and child abusers at the BBC, criminal plods, the Iraq war lies etc etc etc
We're told that we have to 'respect' Judges.
Why ???
In my world respect has to be earned first and the British establishment has done damn all to earn that respect.
The country feels like a powder keg right now, waiting to ignite...
I think Theresa May does "get" this but most of the establishment don't yet.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg2CXkJVCHkpeter_from_putney said:Clinton's spread with Sporting's ECV market is tonight higher still at 305 - 315 that's up a huge 20 ECVs over the past 24 hours. Trump is 84 ECVs behind on 221 - 231.
Shades of Kenneth Wolstenhome some 50 years ago : "The crowd are coming onto the pitch, they think it's all over ....... "
Should it nudge up a few more points tomorrow or on Monday, I'll be getting out - it's been a hairy ride over the past 8 days, having initially looked like a free money tree. I certainly didn't appreciate Sporting closing this market for 3 days earlier this week, thereby preventing me from trading out then and as for their 15 point margin, since aped by Spreadex, words fail me.0 -
If either of those propositions were true, how does it explain her masterful inactivity ?GIN1138 said:
And this is exactly why, if the establishment don't get their head out of the clouds and start coming to terms with the referendum pretty soon, things might actually turn very nasty.another_richard said:
Indeed.glw said:
Exactly, all we did is believe what were told and vote, it's not our fault that the country is run by weasels.another_richard said:Not the ordinary person's, not even the media's but the people who are in charge of the country - politicians, judges, bankers etc
To the average person this looks like some shysters wriggling out of what they had promised.
Trust has gone.
The A50 judgement is only the latest straw after endless lies on immigration, the bankers walking away with their millions, politicians and their expenses, Philip Green and the BHS pension fund, tax dodgers and child abusers at the BBC, criminal plods, the Iraq war lies etc etc etc
We're told that we have to 'respect' Judges.
Why ???
In my world respect has to be earned first and the British establishment has done damn all to earn that respect.
The country feels like a powder keg right now, waiting to ignite...
I think Theresa May does "get" this but most of the establishment don't yet.
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Luckily, no Leave politicians have told any lies at all.Black_Rook said:
You might also add to your list the numerous Continuity Remain politicians and media personalities, who deftly combine outrage about the danger to democracy posed by the demonization of judges with loud and continuous demands for Parliament to ignore the referendum result and cancel Brexit.another_richard said:We're in a badly overwrought situation.
Lets consider some of the aspects of how we got here:
1) Government leaflets telling voters that they would make the decision
2) A Prime Minister who told the voters that he would be immediately trigger A50 and then didn't
3) A Court decision overruling what the government leaflets had told the voters about them making the decision
4) The EU - an organisation with a decades long history of overturning referendum results
5) A widespread feeling that the law is NOT equal and that "there's one rule for them and another for the rest of us"
Its a mess isn't it.
But who's fault is it ?
Not the ordinary person's, not even the media's but the people who are in charge of the country - politicians, judges, bankers etc
It's no wonder that so many people are willing to swallow a narrative of betrayal, when many in positions of power want to betray them and are proud to say so.
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538 have 291 to 246, RCP have 297 to 241.peter_from_putney said:Clinton's spread with Sporting's ECV market is tonight higher still at 305 - 315 that's up a huge 20 ECVs over the past 24 hours. Trump is 84 ECVs behind on 221 - 231.
Shades of Kenneth Wolstenhome some 50 years ago : "The crowd are coming onto the pitch, they think it's all over ....... "
Should it nudge up a few more points tomorrow or on Monday, I'll be getting out - it's been a hairy ride over the past 8 days, having initially looked like a free money tree. I certainly didn't appreciate Sporting closing this market for 3 days earlier this week, thereby preventing me from trading out then and as for their 15 point margin, since aped by Spreadex, words fail me.0 -
I think you mean Nate Silver on 538. I'm talking about Nate Cohn in the New York Times:gettingbetter said:
I think you are misunderstanding it mate. He has NC 48.3% Clinton 51.7% trump, basically a tossAlistair said:
Yeah, I am not trusting Cohn's analysis at all. I think Trump has won NC.Chris said:
I see the latest update of Nate Cohn's North Carolina analysis shows Hillary Clinton's projected lead up to 6.4%.619 said:
This is essentially a recalibration of a poll from a fortnight ago, based on demographic data about early voters. As the polls have shifted since then, it certainly can't be taken at face value, but his initial projection was a 6% Clinton lead, so it does imply that in demographic terms the turnout so far is better than had been expected for Clinton.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?_r=00 -
Exactly. The Daily Mail is not our manager.Sean_F said:
Football fans accuse referees of all manner of depravities.Roger said:
I would compare it to criticising the referees after a defeat and then further accusing them of bias exacerbated by one of them being an admitted homosexual.Sean_F said:There does seem to be a view that for the Press to criticise judges (however ignorant that criticism may be) is akin to blasphemy. I think the judges are quite capable of ignoring criticism
A football manager would probably get a lifetime ban. The Daily Mail gets a bunch of nodding donkeys on PB agreeing with them0 -
This is priceless
@VLubev: @Maomentum_ Journalists are a reserve of the Oxbridge elite.
Corbyn should answer the people's questions. Not the establishment's.0 -
He is a very smart businessman, he even gets out of paying dishwashers.SimonStClare said:
He sounds to a smart businessman, - I take it Hilary is just spending everyone’s money...!Alistair said:
The campaign is picking up the tab at the moment. All those small donation are going to pay Trump to fly around in his own aircraft. And rent office space from himself. And pay for holding fund raising events in his resorts.SimonStClare said:
Not sure how that works, someone's picking up the tab, be it his company or Trump himself.Alistair said:
It's leased to the campaign by a Trump company. He's making money on it.SimonStClare said:
Must cost Trump a pretty penny to fly that thing around the country – and very convenient.Pulpstar said:ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsQeR1HlhHY
Trump Plane 20160 -
That's a huge difference of almost 40 ECVs between what the polls are saying and what the betting market believes, but there again Florida alone with its 29 ECVs swinging one way or the other alters that differential by 58 ECVs.Sean_F said:
538 have 291 to 246, RCP have 297 to 241.peter_from_putney said:Clinton's spread with Sporting's ECV market is tonight higher still at 305 - 315 that's up a huge 20 ECVs over the past 24 hours. Trump is 84 ECVs behind on 221 - 231.
Shades of Kenneth Wolstenhome some 50 years ago : "The crowd are coming onto the pitch, they think it's all over ....... "
Should it nudge up a few more points tomorrow or on Monday, I'll be getting out - it's been a hairy ride over the past 8 days, having initially looked like a free money tree. I certainly didn't appreciate Sporting closing this market for 3 days earlier this week, thereby preventing me from trading out then and as for their 15 point margin, since aped by Spreadex, words fail me.0 -
You don't think a Jewish judge would be offended by a newspaper saying, in effect, "You can't trust this man's judgment - he's Jewish"?grabcocque said:
Look, nobody's saying the Mail was acting responsibly, but you'd imagine an openly gay fencer probably won't be triggered by being called an openly olypmic ex-gay fencer, irrespective of the unpleasant motives.Roger said:
I would compare it to criticising the referees after a defeat and then further accusing them of bias exacerbated by one of them being an admitted homosexual.Sean_F said:There does seem to be a view that for the Press to criticise judges (however ignorant that criticism may be) is akin to blasphemy. I think the judges are quite capable of ignoring criticism
A football manager would probably get a lifetime ban. The Daily Mail gets a bunch of nodding donkeys on PB agreeing with them0 -
When they start floating within the Mid-Atlantic?MaxPB said:
When do we kill all the lawyers?SeanT said:It occurs to me that Brexit is a revolutionary act. Literally. It changes everything, and overthrows the present system of government.
We therefore need revolutionary courts, dispensing revolutionary justice. This is what happens when you have revolutions.
I am ready to serve on the people's tribunals.0 -
Of course a load of politicians on both sides made dubious claims during the referendum campaign.SouthamObserver said:
Luckily, no Leave politicians have told any lies at all.Black_Rook said:
You might also add to your list the numerous Continuity Remain politicians and media personalities, who deftly combine outrage about the danger to democracy posed by the demonization of judges with loud and continuous demands for Parliament to ignore the referendum result and cancel Brexit.another_richard said:We're in a badly overwrought situation.
Lets consider some of the aspects of how we got here:
1) Government leaflets telling voters that they would make the decision
2) A Prime Minister who told the voters that he would be immediately trigger A50 and then didn't
3) A Court decision overruling what the government leaflets had told the voters about them making the decision
4) The EU - an organisation with a decades long history of overturning referendum results
5) A widespread feeling that the law is NOT equal and that "there's one rule for them and another for the rest of us"
Its a mess isn't it.
But who's fault is it ?
Not the ordinary person's, not even the media's but the people who are in charge of the country - politicians, judges, bankers etc
It's no wonder that so many people are willing to swallow a narrative of betrayal, when many in positions of power want to betray them and are proud to say so.
This, however, has absolutely nothing to do with the specific point that I was actually making, so I don't know why you bothered to respond to it to be honest.0 -
I've actually just thought of a thing that might make me completely change my view on the situation in NC. It depends how the state classifies Hispanics. If the 'white' figure is including some Hispanics (who are 10% of the state) then I rescind all my preciius comments.Chris said:
I think you mean Nate Silver on 538. I'm talking about Nate Cohn in the New York Times:gettingbetter said:
I think you are misunderstanding it mate. He has NC 48.3% Clinton 51.7% trump, basically a tossAlistair said:
Yeah, I am not trusting Cohn's analysis at all. I think Trump has won NC.Chris said:
I see the latest update of Nate Cohn's North Carolina analysis shows Hillary Clinton's projected lead up to 6.4%.619 said:
This is essentially a recalibration of a poll from a fortnight ago, based on demographic data about early voters. As the polls have shifted since then, it certainly can't be taken at face value, but his initial projection was a 6% Clinton lead, so it does imply that in demographic terms the turnout so far is better than had been expected for Clinton.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?_r=0
As is I just don't see how the Dems overcome the missing African Americans.0 -
There are several States with very small leads for each side.peter_from_putney said:
That's a huge difference of almost 40 ECVs between what the polls are saying and what the betting market believes, but there again Florida alone with its 29 ECVs swinging one way or the other alters that differential by 58 ECVs.Sean_F said:
538 have 291 to 246, RCP have 297 to 241.peter_from_putney said:Clinton's spread with Sporting's ECV market is tonight higher still at 305 - 315 that's up a huge 20 ECVs over the past 24 hours. Trump is 84 ECVs behind on 221 - 231.
Shades of Kenneth Wolstenhome some 50 years ago : "The crowd are coming onto the pitch, they think it's all over ....... "
Should it nudge up a few more points tomorrow or on Monday, I'll be getting out - it's been a hairy ride over the past 8 days, having initially looked like a free money tree. I certainly didn't appreciate Sporting closing this market for 3 days earlier this week, thereby preventing me from trading out then and as for their 15 point margin, since aped by Spreadex, words fail me.0 -
Yes I did, never knew there were two Nates. How confusing.Chris said:
I think you mean Nate Silver on 538. I'm talking about Nate Cohn in the New York Times:gettingbetter said:
I think you are misunderstanding it mate. He has NC 48.3% Clinton 51.7% trump, basically a tossAlistair said:
Yeah, I am not trusting Cohn's analysis at all. I think Trump has won NC.Chris said:
I see the latest update of Nate Cohn's North Carolina analysis shows Hillary Clinton's projected lead up to 6.4%.619 said:
This is essentially a recalibration of a poll from a fortnight ago, based on demographic data about early voters. As the polls have shifted since then, it certainly can't be taken at face value, but his initial projection was a 6% Clinton lead, so it does imply that in demographic terms the turnout so far is better than had been expected for Clinton.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?_r=00 -
https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/794973339219558401
The English Left has discovered something new to fight about. Half of them think that the Labour Party should contest Parliamentary by-elections. The other half don't.0 -
Just pointing out that the part of the Establishment which chose to back Leave is equally as culpable for the general malaise as that part of the Establishment that supported Remain. The Leave Establishment is now using the newspapers it controls to inflame sentiment against the Remain Establishment.Black_Rook said:
Of course a load of politicians on both sides made dubious claims during the referendum campaign.SouthamObserver said:
Luckily, no Leave politicians have told any lies at all.Black_Rook said:
You might also add to your list the numerous Continuity Remain politicians and media personalities, who deftly combine outrage about the danger to democracy posed by the demonization of judges with loud and continuous demands for Parliament to ignore the referendum result and cancel Brexit.another_richard said:We're in a badly overwrought situation.
Lets consider some of the aspects of how we got here:
1) Government leaflets telling voters that they would make the decision
2) A Prime Minister who told the voters that he would be immediately trigger A50 and then didn't
3) A Court decision overruling what the government leaflets had told the voters about them making the decision
4) The EU - an organisation with a decades long history of overturning referendum results
5) A widespread feeling that the law is NOT equal and that "there's one rule for them and another for the rest of us"
Its a mess isn't it.
But who's fault is it ?
Not the ordinary person's, not even the media's but the people who are in charge of the country - politicians, judges, bankers etc
It's no wonder that so many people are willing to swallow a narrative of betrayal, when many in positions of power want to betray them and are proud to say so.
This, however, has absolutely nothing to do with the specific point that I was actually making, so I don't know why you bothered to respond to it to be honest.
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Why should she reveal her negotiationing tactics for 650 MPs to argue ad infinitum and prejeudice the chances of a deal. I assume she is using the time for the appeal to put together a thought through response depending on the decision of the appeal.Nigelb said:
If either of those propositions were true, how does it explain her masterful inactivity ?GIN1138 said:
And this is exactly why, if the establishment don't get their head out of the clouds and start coming to terms with the referendum pretty soon, things might actually turn very nasty.another_richard said:
Indeed.glw said:
Exactly, all we did is believe what were told and vote, it's not our fault that the country is run by weasels.another_richard said:Not the ordinary person's, not even the media's but the people who are in charge of the country - politicians, judges, bankers etc
To the average person this looks like some shysters wriggling out of what they had promised.
Trust has gone.
The A50 judgement is only the latest straw after endless lies on immigration, the bankers walking away with their millions, politicians and their expenses, Philip Green and the BHS pension fund, tax dodgers and child abusers at the BBC, criminal plods, the Iraq war lies etc etc etc
We're told that we have to 'respect' Judges.
Why ???
In my world respect has to be earned first and the British establishment has done damn all to earn that respect.
The country feels like a powder keg right now, waiting to ignite...
I think Theresa May does "get" this but most of the establishment don't yet.
She will have a response at that time but do not expect her to give anything away beforehand.
The response when it comes will put every MP on the spot and if you think this weeks headlines have been tough you haven't seen anything yet to the response from the print media if MPs play ducks and drakes or worse stop A50 being served unconditionally
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Its crap living in a democracy where a government has to consult the people about how we are to be governed. Lets appoint Boris Emperor and let him get on with itBig_G_NorthWales said:
Why should she reveal her negotiationing tactics for 650 MPs to argue ad infinitum and prejeudice the chances of a deal. I assume she is using the time for the appeal to put together a thought through response depending on the decision of the appeal.Nigelb said:
If either of those propositions were true, how does it explain her masterful inactivity ?GIN1138 said:
And this is exactly why, if the establishment don't get their head out of the clouds and start coming to terms with the referendum pretty soon, things might actually turn very nasty.another_richard said:
Indeed.glw said:
Exactly, all we did is believe what were told and vote, it's not our fault that the country is run by weasels.another_richard said:Not the ordinary person's, not even the media's but the people who are in charge of the country - politicians, judges, bankers etc
To the average person this looks like some shysters wriggling out of what they had promised.
Trust has gone.
The A50 judgement is only the latest straw after endless lies on immigration, the bankers walking away with their millions, politicians and their expenses, Philip Green and the BHS pension fund, tax dodgers and child abusers at the BBC, criminal plods, the Iraq war lies etc etc etc
We're told that we have to 'respect' Judges.
Why ???
In my world respect has to be earned first and the British establishment has done damn all to earn that respect.
The country feels like a powder keg right now, waiting to ignite...
I think Theresa May does "get" this but most of the establishment don't yet.
She will have a response at that time but do not expect her to give anything away beforehand.
The response when it comes will put every MP on the spot and if you think this weeks headlines have been tough you haven't seen anything yet to the response from the print media if MPs play ducks and drakes or worse stop A50 being served unconditionally0 -
Well Nate [C]'s argument was essentially that his projection would respond to any differences between actual early voter turnout and the turnout assumed in the poll his analysis is based on. As his projected lead for Clinton is a bit bigger than the original figure, I suppose that means that on the whole early voting has been somewhat better for Clinton than the poll assumed.Alistair said:
I've actually just thought of a thing that might make me completely change my view on the situation in NC. It depends how the state classifies Hispanics. If the 'white' figure is including some Hispanics (who are 10% of the state) then I rescind all my preciius comments.Chris said:
I think you mean Nate Silver on 538. I'm talking about Nate Cohn in the New York Times:gettingbetter said:
I think you are misunderstanding it mate. He has NC 48.3% Clinton 51.7% trump, basically a tossAlistair said:
Yeah, I am not trusting Cohn's analysis at all. I think Trump has won NC.Chris said:
I see the latest update of Nate Cohn's North Carolina analysis shows Hillary Clinton's projected lead up to 6.4%.619 said:
This is essentially a recalibration of a poll from a fortnight ago, based on demographic data about early voters. As the polls have shifted since then, it certainly can't be taken at face value, but his initial projection was a 6% Clinton lead, so it does imply that in demographic terms the turnout so far is better than had been expected for Clinton.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?_r=0
As is I just don't see how the Dems overcome the missing African Americans.0 -
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I just love it when someone says something like that.gettingbetter said:
Yes I did, never knew there were two Nates. How confusing.Chris said:
I think you mean Nate Silver on 538. I'm talking about Nate Cohn in the New York Times:gettingbetter said:
I think you are misunderstanding it mate. He has NC 48.3% Clinton 51.7% trump, basically a tossAlistair said:
Yeah, I am not trusting Cohn's analysis at all. I think Trump has won NC.Chris said:
I see the latest update of Nate Cohn's North Carolina analysis shows Hillary Clinton's projected lead up to 6.4%.619 said:
This is essentially a recalibration of a poll from a fortnight ago, based on demographic data about early voters. As the polls have shifted since then, it certainly can't be taken at face value, but his initial projection was a 6% Clinton lead, so it does imply that in demographic terms the turnout so far is better than had been expected for Clinton.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?_r=0
I can imagine some people might argue all afternoon about how they were really right despite all appearances :-)0 -
their prediction takes into acount white share increasing and black share falling, on the basis she is winning the educated white vote which is a big share in north carolina.Alistair said:
I've actually just thought of a thing that might make me completely change my view on the situation in NC. It depends how the state classifies Hispanics. If the 'white' figure is including some Hispanics (who are 10% of the state) then I rescind all my preciius comments.Chris said:
I think you mean Nate Silver on 538. I'm talking about Nate Cohn in the New York Times:gettingbetter said:
I think you are misunderstanding it mate. He has NC 48.3% Clinton 51.7% trump, basically a tossAlistair said:
Yeah, I am not trusting Cohn's analysis at all. I think Trump has won NC.Chris said:
I see the latest update of Nate Cohn's North Carolina analysis shows Hillary Clinton's projected lead up to 6.4%.619 said:
This is essentially a recalibration of a poll from a fortnight ago, based on demographic data about early voters. As the polls have shifted since then, it certainly can't be taken at face value, but his initial projection was a 6% Clinton lead, so it does imply that in demographic terms the turnout so far is better than had been expected for Clinton.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?_r=0
As is I just don't see how the Dems overcome the missing African Americans.0 -
I think if there aren't enough white, Anglo-Saxon, protestant, red-blooded men in the Supreme Court to do the right thing, she should take it to the European Court, really she should.Roger said:
Its crap living in a democracy where a government has to consult the people about how we are to be governed. Lets appoint Boris Emperor and let him get on with itBig_G_NorthWales said:
Why should she reveal her negotiationing tactics for 650 MPs to argue ad infinitum and prejeudice the chances of a deal. I assume she is using the time for the appeal to put together a thought through response depending on the decision of the appeal.Nigelb said:
If either of those propositions were true, how does it explain her masterful inactivity ?GIN1138 said:
And this is exactly why, if the establishment don't get their head out of the clouds and start coming to terms with the referendum pretty soon, things might actually turn very nasty.another_richard said:
Indeed.glw said:
Exactly, all we did is believe what were told and vote, it's not our fault that the country is run by weasels.another_richard said:Not the ordinary person's, not even the media's but the people who are in charge of the country - politicians, judges, bankers etc
To the average person this looks like some shysters wriggling out of what they had promised.
Trust has gone.
The A50 judgement is only the latest straw after endless lies on immigration, the bankers walking away with their millions, politicians and their expenses, Philip Green and the BHS pension fund, tax dodgers and child abusers at the BBC, criminal plods, the Iraq war lies etc etc etc
We're told that we have to 'respect' Judges.
Why ???
In my world respect has to be earned first and the British establishment has done damn all to earn that respect.
The country feels like a powder keg right now, waiting to ignite...
I think Theresa May does "get" this but most of the establishment don't yet.
She will have a response at that time but do not expect her to give anything away beforehand.
The response when it comes will put every MP on the spot and if you think this weeks headlines have been tough you haven't seen anything yet to the response from the print media if MPs play ducks and drakes or worse stop A50 being served unconditionally
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Have just backed Michelle Obama, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders
(Getting more money to play with for election night) 0 -
ha brilliantAlistair said:0 -
That doesn't make the anger in this instance any more reasonable, even if it is understandable, it's still based on deliberately ignoring the truth in favour of a comforting but false narrative of what happened. Honestly, those hoping against hope we can still remain are not helping getting something more achievable, like a softer Brexit, but anger at them is one thing, extrapolating that to anger at everything those people might be involved in, even when it is a point of law, is quite another. One is reasonable, the other not.Black_Rook said:
You might also add to your list the numerous Continuity Remain politicians and media personalities, who deftly combine outrage about the danger to democracy posed by the demonization of judges with loud and continuous demands for Parliament to ignore the referendum result and cancel Brexit.another_richard said:We're in a badly overwrought situation.
Lets consider some of the aspects of how we got here:
1) Government leaflets telling voters that they would make the decision
2) A Prime Minister who told the voters that he would be immediately trigger A50 and then didn't
3) A Court decision overruling what the government leaflets had told the voters about them making the decision
4) The EU - an organisation with a decades long history of overturning referendum results
5) A widespread feeling that the law is NOT equal and that "there's one rule for them and another for the rest of us"
Its a mess isn't it.
But who's fault is it ?
Not the ordinary person's, not even the media's but the people who are in charge of the country - politicians, judges, bankers etc
It's no wonder that so many people are willing to swallow a narrative of betrayal, when many in positions of power want to betray them and are proud to say so.
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That would be an especially idiotic way to lose.Alistair said:0 -
Hello, someone posted a tweet about how when Trump was thinking about running for New York Governor his pollster hid some bad polling from him, could someone please repost that tweet. Ta0
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Lol that is quite funny - not giving him the results he wants to see I assume.Alistair said:0 -
Ed Balls can actually dance now. Praise from Craig Revel Horwood0
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I see you've enabled the Brian Blessed HTML tags.TheScreamingEagles said:Hello, someone posted a tweet about how when Trump was thinking about running for New York Governor his pollster hid some bad polling from him, could someone please repost that tweet. Ta
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It was 666 at 5:27pm your timeTheScreamingEagles said:Hello, someone posted a tweet about how when Trump was thinking about running for New York Governor his pollster hid some bad polling from him, could someone please repost that tweet. Ta
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Merci.GeoffM said:
It was 666 at 5:27pm your timeTheScreamingEagles said:Hello, someone posted a tweet about how when Trump was thinking about running for New York Governor his pollster hid some bad polling from him, could someone please repost that tweet. Ta
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Blimey - Ed could win this0
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THIS IS BRIAN BLESSEDRobD said:
I see you've enabled the Brian Blessed HTML tags.TheScreamingEagles said:Hello, someone posted a tweet about how when Trump was thinking about running for New York Governor his pollster hid some bad polling from him, could someone please repost that tweet. Ta
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RobD said:
I see you've enabled the Brian Blessed HTML tags.TheScreamingEagles said:Hello, someone posted a tweet about how when Trump was thinking about running for New York Governor his pollster hid some bad polling from him, could someone please repost that tweet. Ta
THIS IS THE BRIAN BLESSED HTML TAG
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Yeah, don't use the Brian Blessed HTML tag, it really annoys Robert0
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titters 0
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(((Harry Enten)))
(((Harry Enten))) – Verified account @ForecasterEnten
With third party candidates, PA Poll is Clinton +4 from Muhlenberg http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-poll-trump-clinton-toomey-mcginty-20161105-story.html …0 -
I assume Labour won't stand in the whole of Southern England and the Shires in 2020!Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/794973339219558401
The English Left has discovered something new to fight about. Half of them think that the Labour Party should contest Parliamentary by-elections. The other half don't.0 -
Trump is a chiselling crook who doesn't pay the people who work for him. He owes his pollster $700,000.0
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Does anyone really think that having a debate in parliament about Article 50 will make any MP change their minds? Honestly?
The reasons for their votes will be strong Europhile feelings, strong Brexit sympathies, and the way their constituency voted. The debate itself will be irrelevant and will serve no purpose other than to give MPs the chance to subvert the will of the people.
They have to weigh the perils of telling the voters to Fuck off, with the warm feeling they'll have by getting their own way.0 -
Yes I did the same also Ryan and mcmullinPulpstar said:Have just backed Michelle Obama, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders
(Getting more money to play with for election night)0 -
There's an outside chance that he actually believes that it's part of a pollster's job to provide 'good' polls.Jobabob said:Trump is a chiselling crook who doesn't pay the people who work for him. He owes his pollster $700,000.
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Nate Silver has an overview of the state of play here:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-campaign-is-almost-over-and-heres-where-we-stand/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
No surprises until the end, where he comments on the early-voting numbers, which he evidently thinks are favourable to Clinton (he refers to Nate Cohn's finding that some of Clinton's early voters are "low-propensity" ones, who are screened out by some polls). Silver thinks a good turnout may be important for Clinton, and says he can imagine her doing well in Nevada, North Carolina and Florida to win the contest, despite losing a state like Michigan. [The exact opposite of Trump's hope of winning on a high turnout of non-voters, in fact.]0 -
Puts the hyperbole about civil unrest in this country into perspective.Pulpstar said:0 -
If they are going to start selectively contesting seats, then they might as well not bother to try to win anything in the South East, South West or East Anglia, beyond the dozen or so that they are actually defending. It would save an awful lot of money and wasted effort.Dixie said:
I assume Labour won't stand in the whole of Southern England and the Shires in 2020!Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/794973339219558401
The English Left has discovered something new to fight about. Half of them think that the Labour Party should contest Parliamentary by-elections. The other half don't.
People in theoretical Labour targets like Stevenage, Ipswich and Waveney aren't going to embrace the Far Left in anything like the required numbers to defeat the Tories.0 -
I just came across this with Barbara Bush by chance. Nothing special but it does raise the question how moronic would someone have to be to vote for Trump? I've never seen anyone quite as repulsive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNboNXFvVYM0 -
Yes, the euro has wrecked havoc.williamglenn said:
Puts the hyperbole about civil unrest in this country into perspective.Pulpstar said:0 -
Odds on.Theuniondivvie said:
There's an outside chance that he actually believes that it's part of a pollster's job to provide 'good' polls.Jobabob said:Trump is a chiselling crook who doesn't pay the people who work for him. He owes his pollster $700,000.
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Off-topic, occasioned by hearing a guest on Radio 4 say that "the [ancient] Romans weren't racist":
* first recorded use of "racialism" or "racialist": 1907
* first recorded use of "racism" or "racist": 1932
Source: OED.
(I am not suggesting that attitudes don't exist until they're named; they do. I just thought this was interesting.)0 -
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Isn't this no more than a proxy for his dislike of Corbyn.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/794973339219558401
The English Left has discovered something new to fight about. Half of them think that the Labour Party should contest Parliamentary by-elections. The other half don't.0 -
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The story goes that once contractors in Atlantic City realised Trump regularly stiffed them for 50 percent of the contract they all agreed to double their rates when bidding for Trump work.0
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It's the way forward, a a beautiful path to extinction. 150 seats for LabBlack_Rook said:
If they are going to start selectively contesting seats, then they might as well not bother to try to win anything in the South East, South West or East Anglia, beyond the dozen or so that they are actually defending. It would save an awful lot of money and wasted effort.Dixie said:
I assume Labour won't stand in the whole of Southern England and the Shires in 2020!Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/794973339219558401
The English Left has discovered something new to fight about. Half of them think that the Labour Party should contest Parliamentary by-elections. The other half don't.
People in theoretical Labour targets like Stevenage, Ipswich and Waveney aren't going to embrace the Far Left in anything like the required numbers to defeat the Tories.0 -
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/794903901380247552Dixie said:It's the way forward, a a beautiful path to extinction. 150 seats for Lab
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I was in Egypt for Brexit referendum, had to enjoy alone. Now off to Morocco for US elec. Here's hoping for Trump but Hillary looks home and dry. I accept I am often wrong. this site is the only communication to real world of politics. Thank you all0
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Plenty of people have no time for Corbyn, but I interpret the root cause as desperation, pure and simple. Advocates of the "progressive alliance" strategy are hoping that they can minimise Labour losses to the Tories by scraping together loaned votes from the Lib Dems and Greens in their marginal defences.matt said:
Isn't this no more than a proxy for his dislike of Corbyn.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/DAaronovitch/status/794973339219558401
The English Left has discovered something new to fight about. Half of them think that the Labour Party should contest Parliamentary by-elections. The other half don't.
The really big problem with this theory is that any kind of leftist stitch-up will give the Tories carte blanche to do a counter-deal with Ukip, neutralising any likely benefit. Fundamentally, it just makes Labour look weak and defeatist.0 -
@richardosman: If Ed Balls gets voted out this week the High Court are going to refer the decision to Parliament. #Strictly0
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No. There should be a referendum proper. We cannot let the mobile phone mafia to rule the country.Scott_P said:@richardosman: If Ed Balls gets voted out this week the High Court are going to refer the decision to Parliament. #Strictly
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In the 20 highest weighted (*) PA polls in the 538 model:nunu said:(((Harry Enten)))
(((Harry Enten))) – Verified account @ForecasterEnten
With third party candidates, PA Poll is Clinton +4 from Muhlenberg http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-poll-trump-clinton-toomey-mcginty-20161105-story.html …
- Clinton leads in 19
- The other is tied
(*) Not quite the same as the 20 most recent polls - but not much different.0 -
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Or those with access to the internet, phones & mobiles.surbiton said:
No. There should be a referendum proper. We cannot let the mobile phone mafia to rule the country.Scott_P said:@richardosman: If Ed Balls gets voted out this week the High Court are going to refer the decision to Parliament. #Strictly
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Trying to maximise Tory splits by giving a very soft Brexit list of demands.dr_spyn said:
Mr Corbyn’s bottom lines are:
UK access to 500 million customers in Europe’s single market.
No watering down of EU workplace rights.
Guarantees on safeguarding consumers and the environment.
Pledges on Britain picking up the tab for any EU capital investment lost by Brexit
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He must be bored of the job - looking for a way out.....dr_spyn said:0 -
Hillary's husband accepts money for his charity. Surely a game changerFloater said:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-foundation-idUSKBN12Z2SL
More dirt on Hilary surfaces0 -
He must be the most delusional political leader there has ever been.dr_spyn said:0 -
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It's not misbehaviour to regret the result of a vote and hope that circumstances arise where it may be reconsidered, any more than it would be if Labour was elected and you hoped for an early new election that might reverse the result. It's a free country and you're entitled to hope that if you want to.Black_Rook said:
I, for my part, only talked about the misbehaviour of some of the politicians and media personalities who want to unpick the verdict of the people, because it runs contrary to what they want. This is beyond dispute. They have called for Parliament to veto Brexit quite unashamedly. I didn't mention the judges at all.0 -
@NickPalmer
'It's not misbehaviour to regret the result of a vote and hope that circumstances arise where it may be reconsidered,'
It's not misbehaviour ,its subverting a democratic vote.
And politicians wonder why their reputation is in the gutter.0
