politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcome

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Ex-Australian PM John Howard says he would have voted to leave the EU had he been British and urges Britain to make the most of it
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/exaustralian-prime-minister-john-howard-on-why-we-should-make-the-most-of-brexit-a3387201.html

Well we can hardly do otherwise than make the most of it now, short of some major event changing minds.

On this Phillips business, I've never heard of the man, but given there seem to be plenty of MPs and party members so at odds with their parties and their direction that it seems silly how tribally supportive they remain (even if only refusing to back anyone else even if objectively they seem to suit them more), it's almost refreshign to see someone just be clear, the label they were elected under no longer fits them.

There are a lot of us who like Phillips wanted and campaigned for a soft Brexit. There are more than a few of us on here who want exactly that - an EEA type relationship with the EU. Just because it is not what you wanted doesn't mean it is not a respectable wish. And one that is entirely possible. Indeed I have a £100 bet with Richard Nabavi on that very outcome. I know Phillips wanted that because I campaigned alongside him.

Given the focus of much of the Leave campaign on immigration, which was crucial in taking them over the line in many white working class areas, the idea May can just throw that in the bin after a Leave victory with no attempt to control free movement at all because the upper middle class Leavers no longer have any need for the plebs is a complete non-starter as she has correctly made clear. For the record I voted Remain

ITV just did a report from Buxton at the anger amongst the voters at the Judges decision yesterday.

Anyone who thinks they can frustrate the will of the people including Clegg's and Farron's idiotic idea of a second referendum are going to get a very rude awakening from the voters

Yes, the liberal elite lost for once and will just have to accept the result of the referendum

Yes happy to accept the result of the referendum but not that the referendum is implemented by May.s Government breaking Parliamentary Law .

Alistair said:

I have taken the Jill Stein 4/1.

There does seem to be some squeezing going on. On 538, Gary Johnson is 0.2% down on the day (at 4.4%) and Trump is up 0.2%. But Clinton is also up, by 0.1%. 538 doesn't give a separate figure for Stein.

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Ex-Australian PM John Howard says he would have voted to leave the EU had he been British and urges Britain to make the most of it
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/exaustralian-prime-minister-john-howard-on-why-we-should-make-the-most-of-brexit-a3387201.html

Well we can hardly do otherwise than make the most of it now, short of some major event changing minds.

On this Phillips business, I've never heard of the man, but given there seem to be plenty of MPs and party members so at odds with their parties and their direction that it seems silly how tribally supportive they remain (even if only refusing to back anyone else even if objectively they seem to suit them more), it's almost refreshign to see someone just be clear, the label they were elected under no longer fits them.

There are a lot of us who like Phillips wanted and campaigned for a soft Brexit. There are more than a few of us on here who want exactly that - an EEA type relationship with the EU. Just because it is not what you wanted doesn't mean it is not a respectable wish. And one that is entirely possible. Indeed I have a £100 bet with Richard Nabavi on that very outcome. I know Phillips wanted that because I campaigned alongside him.

Given the focus of much of the Leave campaign on immigration, which was crucial in taking them over the line in many white working class areas, the idea May can just throw that in the bin after a Leave victory with no attempt to

ITV just did a report from Buxton at the anger amongst the voters at the Judges decision yesterday.

Anyone who thinks they can frustrate the will of the people including Clegg's and Farron's idiotic idea of a second referendum are going to get a very rude awakening from the voters

Yes, the liberal elite lost for once and will just have to accept the result of the referendum

Yes happy to accept the result of the referendum but not that the referendum is implemented by May.s Government breaking Parliamentary Law .

It was Parliament who authorised the referendum in the first place

HYUFD said:

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Ex-Australian PM John Howard says he would have voted to leave the EU had he been British and urges Britain to make the most of it
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/exaustralian-prime-minister-john-howard-on-why-we-should-make-the-most-of-brexit-a3387201.html

Well we can hardly do otherwise than make the most of it now, short of some major event changing minds.

On this Phillips business, I've never heard of the man, but given there seem to be plenty of MPs and party members so at odds with their parties and their direction that it seems silly how tribally supportive they remain (even if only refusing to back anyone else even if objectively they seem to suit them more), it's almost refreshign to see someone just be clear, the label they were elected under no longer fits them.

Given the focus of much of the Leave campaign on immigration, which was crucial in taking them over the line in many white working class areas, the idea May can just throw that in the bin after a Leave victory with no attempt to

ITV just did a report from Buxton at the anger amongst the voters at the Judges decision yesterday.

Anyone who thinks they can frustrate the will of the people including Clegg's and Farron's idiotic idea of a second referendum are going to get a very rude awakening from the voters

Yes, the liberal elite lost for once and will just have to accept the result of the referendum

Yes happy to accept the result of the referendum but not that the referendum is implemented by May.s Government breaking Parliamentary Law .

It was Parliament who authorised the referendum in the first place

True but Parliament has not authorised the declaration of Article 50

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

I voted LEAVE and I want EEA or EFTA, or as close as.

Yes but you are a wealthy thriller writer leaving in Camden, I may be wrong but I don't think it was wealthy novelists living in central London who won the referendum for Leave, welcome though your support was but working and lower middle class voters in the North and Midlands

Irrespective, it is the job of the government to find the exit that gets the support of 70% of the populations, not 51% of Leave voters.

Most of the population wants at least some attempt to control immigration, including a clear majority of May's Conservative voters

I'm not disagreeing with that, i am merely pointing out that the rationale of the majority of Leave voters is of absolutely no importance.

Final campaign schedules are up and it looks like Hillary is doing just 1 event tomorrow, 2 on Sunday and 1 on Monday. Trump by contrast is doing 4 events tomorrow, 2 on Sunday and 2 on Monday
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule

Jobabob said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SimonStClare said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What a charmer....

http://order-order.com/2016/11/04/sadiqs-night-czars-foul-mouthed-tory-scum-tweets/

The BBC left that bit out on her suitability for the position.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-37872501

FFS another BBC report crow barring Fabic nightclub into a story...they are totally obsessed by the fact it got closed down for repeated serious issues with drugs. I can only presume it was the favourite venue for bbc employees.

I read far more whining about the BBC writing a story about Fabric closing down than I read stories about Fabric closing down. It's like the 'Outrage Bus' in that respect - I read more posts whining about people jumping on said bus than I do posts featuring people actually climbing aboard.

Fabric was a belting club in its day. I can see your hands waving from here.

Yawn...why don't you get on your hobby horse about non-bettors on PB....when you don't have a clue about professional gambling.

It's a sign of how parochial and diminished we're already becoming that we're all debating the minutiae of declaring Article 50 while on the other edge of the continent Turkey continues to descend into fascism.

Back in June Turkey seemed to be an important factor for us... Now, not so much. Let's leave it up to Germany and France to debate how Europe should act.

HYUFD said:

Final campaign schedules are up and it looks like Hillary is doing just 1 event tomorrow, 2 on Sunday and 1 on Monday. Trump by contrast is doing 4 events tomorrow, 2 on Sunday and 2 on Monday
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule

But Hillary has Obama (Mr and Mrs), Bill, Bernie, Joe, Hollywood....all putting in a shift.
Trump has Chris Christie and Guliani....

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

I voted LEAVE and I want EEA or EFTA, or as close as.

Yes but you are a wealthy thriller writer leaving in Camden, I may be wrong but I don't think it was wealthy novelists living in central London who won the referendum for Leave, welcome though your support was but working and lower middle class voters in the North and Midlands

Irrespective, it is the job of the government to find the exit that gets the support of 70% of the populations, not 51% of Leave voters.

There may not be an exit which gets the support of 50% of voters let alone 70%.

What percentage of support would you allot to:

Free trade, freedom of movement
Free trade, restrictions on movement
Restrictions on trade, freedom of movement
Restrictions on trade, restrictions on movement

and that's before we get into subsets of each.

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

I voted LEAVE and I want EEA or EFTA, or as close as.

Yes but you are a wealthy thriller writer leaving in Camden, I may be wrong but I don't think it was wealthy novelists living in central London who won the referendum for Leave, welcome though your support was but working and lower middle class voters in the North and Midlands

What a depressing post

another_richard said:

Its a process which has been happening for years (and in the USA for even longer) but Brexit has given it a focus point.

We've become a society where wealth consumption is prized too highly whilst wealth creation is regarded almost as an optional.

And when there isn't enough wealth being created to feed the consumption the only way to acquire the extra wealth is to take it from someone else. Demonising of the someone else helps to make this justifiable, even righteous.

We need to concentrate much more on quality of life issues rather living standards.

Reading an interesting book on why people act the way they do ("Why We Do What We Do, Edward Deci). He posits that for most of us there are six main motivators - three extrinsic (money, fame and attractiveness) and three intrinsic (autonomy, competence/mastery and relatedness/belonging). When any one of the 3 extrinsic motivators is given importance out of proportion of the others, and in particular out of proportion with the intrinsic motivators, he argues that unhappiness and poor mental health ultimately result. He takes that up at a societal level to rail against the primacy given to materialism in the American Dream and the social unhappiness that has inevitably engendered.

As a conservative libertarian, I am still processing his logic. But it is certainly making me rethink some of my most basic beliefs about what should be important, both at an individual and societal level. Economics is not, nor should be, the be all and end all.

My hope is that the Brexit and Trump phenomena will get this across to our politicians and that some sort of policy rebalancing occurs.

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Ex-Australian PM John Howard says he would have voted to leave the EU had he been British and urges Britain to make the most of it
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/exaustralian-prime-minister-john-howard-on-why-we-should-make-the-most-of-brexit-a3387201.html

Well we can hardly do otherwise than make the most of it now, short of some major event changing minds.

On this Phillips business, I've never heard of the man, but given there seem to be plenty of MPs and party members so at odds with their parties and their direction that it seems silly how tribally supportive they remain (even if only refusing to back anyone else even if objectively they seem to suit them more), it's almost refreshign to see someone just be clear, the label they were elected under no longer fits them.

Mind you he also says he supported Leave, ridiculous! I mean I can understand Remainers who want soft Brexit at all costs or even to try and keep us in the EU and I can understand Leavers who want hard Brexit and to end free movement and leave the single market but I really cannot understand those who campaigned for Leave and are now furious that the free trade, soft Brexit nirvana they wanted may not come fully to fruition. What on earth did they think would happen after a Leave vote?

There are a lot of us who like Phillips wanted and campaigned for a soft Brexit. There are more than a few of us on here who want exactly that - an EEA type relationship with the EU. Just because it is not what you wanted doesn't mean it is not a respectable wish. And one that is entirely possible. Indeed I have a £100 bet with Richard Nabavi on that very outcome. I know Phillips wanted that because I campaigned alongside him.

How about the others there campaigning alongside the two of you.

Soft Brexiters also?

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

There are only 3 possible winners in Sleaford: Tories, UKIP or Independent.

It had a fantastic result for the LDs in 2015 - they held their deposit.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Ex-Australian PM John Howard says he would have voted to leave the EU had he been British and urges Britain to make the most of it
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/exaustralian-prime-minister-john-howard-on-why-we-should-make-the-most-of-brexit-a3387201.html

Well we can hardly do otherwise than make the most of it now, short of some major event changing minds.

On this Phillips business, I've never heard of the man, but given there seem to be plenty of MPs and party members so at odds with their parties and their direction that it seems silly how tribally supportive they remain (even if only refusing to back anyone else even if objectively they seem to suit them more), it's almost refreshign to see someone just be clear, the label they were elected under no longer fits them.

Mind you he also says he supported Leave, ridiculous! I mean I can understand Remainers who want soft Brexit at all blockquote>

It's not that far removed from hardcore hard brexiters who perceive their wishes not coming fully to fruition as a betrayal of the vote - soft brexiters are losing the war to define Brexit is all.

I doubt hard Brexiteers will get all they want either, May will likely do some free movement compromise to try for a free trade deal but she will try to get at least some control over it and correctly so

Do you not realise...there is not a deal to be had....to satisfy 27 EU states with differing priorities, and Brexit whack jobs...there is not a deal, niente, nothing, zilch.. Are people incapable of seeing the big picture?

That is why the very sensible Fox is saying go for hard Brexit, and get it over and done with...because the alternative is a death by a thousand cuts without any end in sight. I am more than inclined to agree.

The very attractive Theresa said Brexit is Brexit...and that is it. The rest is just shit with a capital S...

By the way H....your constant posting challenging any opinion poll that may reflect HRC in a remotely good light is getting very slightly on my nerves...and I say this with the very best intentions....

Maybe but May is of course going to try and get the best deal for the UK she can even if ultimately it proves unsuccessful. As for Hillary polling, given the latest Georgia poll posted earlier was actually wrongly posted as showing a Hillary lead it is just as well a few of us are questioning the posted US polling a little

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

I voted LEAVE and I want EEA or EFTA, or as close as.

Yes but you are a wealthy thriller writer leaving in Camden, I may be wrong but I don't think it was wealthy novelists living in central London who won the referendum for Leave, welcome though your support was but working and lower middle class voters in the North and Midlands

Irrespective, it is the job of the government to find the exit that gets the support of 70% of the populations, not 51% of Leave voters.

Most of the population wants at least some attempt to control immigration, including a clear majority of May's Conservative voters

I'm not disagreeing with that, i am merely pointing out that the rationale of the majority of Leave voters is of absolutely no importance.

It is in the sense that the Leave campaign won the referendum, it would only have been of no importance had Remain won convincingly

The thread clogged up with Brexit as per usual, I see. Here's a job that some of you might like to apply for:

https://jobs.theguardian.com/job/6413994/policy-leads/?TrackID=1258221&BatchID=753&utm_source=eml&utm_medium=sygntd&utm_campaign=jobalert&utm_content=text_link&CMP_TU=jbsr&CMP_BUNIT=jobs&CMP=ema_jobalert

Amusing that they've advertised it in the Guardian!

I hope Murray isn't about to fluff his lines......

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

I voted LEAVE and I want EEA or EFTA, or as close as.

Yes but you are a wealthy thriller writer leaving in Camden, I may be wrong but I don't think it was wealthy novelists living in central London who won the referendum for Leave, welcome though your support was but working and lower middle class voters in the North and Midlands

What a depressing post

True though

tyson said:

HYUFD said:

Final campaign schedules are up and it looks like Hillary is doing just 1 event tomorrow, 2 on Sunday and 1 on Monday. Trump by contrast is doing 4 events tomorrow, 2 on Sunday and 2 on Monday
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule

But Hillary has Obama (Mr and Mrs), Bill, Bernie, Joe, Hollywood....all putting in a shift.
Trump has Chris Christie and Guliani....

And Pence but at the end of the day Hillary could drag out the ghost of Elvis Presley to campaign for her but it is her on the ballot and not him. The fact she is relying on the star power and appeal of others to get voters out for her in the final days is hardly encouraging for her team

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

The thread clogged up with Brexit as per usual, I see. Here's a job that some of you might like to apply for:

https://jobs.theguardian.com/job/6413994/policy-leads/?TrackID=1258221&BatchID=753&utm_source=eml&utm_medium=sygntd&utm_campaign=jobalert&utm_content=text_link&CMP_TU=jbsr&CMP_BUNIT=jobs&CMP=ema_jobalert

Amusing that they've advertised it in the Guardian!

' Salary £30,418 - £38,484 '

That doesn't sound much for what appears to be an important position in central London.

So I'll give it a pass.

London Mayors Party Planner to the capital pays about the same and is only two days a week....unfortunately that role has been filled today.

another_richard said:

JosiasJessop said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Mind you he also says he supported Leave, ridiculous! I mean I can understand Remainers who want soft Brexit at all costs or even to try and keep us in the EU and I can understand Leavers who want hard Brexit and to end free movement and leave the single market but I really cannot understand those who campaigned for Leave and are now furious that the free trade, soft Brexit nirvana they wanted may not come fully to fruition. What on earth did they think would happen after a Leave vote?

There are a lot of us who like Phillips wanted .

Given the focus of much

o claim victory as their own whilst ignoring the others.

I do not agree with HYFUD much, but I too am a former Remainer turned hard Brexit. Immigration, ending payments and stopping foreigners having a say over our laws are what clinched it. If we get less than hard Brexit the cries of betrayal from the bitter-enders will poison our politics for years.

It is like a couple divorcing. Years later it is possible to be civil, but not while the lawyers divvie up the assets. In a decade or so time we may be ready to have a more positive attitude, but the near future is not going to happen.

The thing I'm worried about is it not poisoning our politics, but it poisoning our society.

Its a process which has been happening for years (and in the USA for even longer) but Brexit has given it a focus point.

We've become a society where wealth consumption is prized too highly whilst wealth creation is regarded almost as an optional.

And when there isn't enough wealth being created to feed the consumption the only way to acquire the extra wealth is to take it from someone else. Demonising of the someone else helps to make this justifiable, even righteous.

We need to concentrate much more on quality of life issues rather living standards.

Easy when you have lots of stuff and can opine at leisure about how materialist we have become. Less easy when you on minimum wage or thereabouts, do an honest and good days' work, have to put food on the table, manage your childrens' demands for trainers (or ipads) just like everyone else's, and wonder how you are going to afford a week in Majorca.

Your post sounds like it came from Green Party HQ. Plus who are you to say that a 40" flatscreen TV doesn't contribute to quality of life. What would you have people do? Read Proust all evening?

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

I voted LEAVE and I want EEA or EFTA, or as close as.

Yes but you are a wealthy thriller writer leaving in Camden, I may be wrong but I don't think it was wealthy novelists living in central London who won the referendum for Leave, welcome though your support was but working and lower middle class voters in the North and Midlands

Its not been noted much but Leave was also very strong in coastal areas.

With the exception of Brighton, Lewes and South Hams every coastal district from Berwick to the Bristol Channel was Leave, including the five strongest Leave areas.

Tim_B said:

Best news headline of the day -

Takata auto airbag crisis coming to a head.

A funny headline about a rather tragic story that outlines management, engineering and regulatory foobars over more than a decade.

There's a good introductory story about it here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-06-02/sixty-million-car-bombs-inside-takata-s-air-bag-crisis

PlatoSaid said:

Michael Beckel
432,000+ presidential TV ads have aired in general election. Team Clinton responsible for 75% of them https://t.co/TsEUt6LbWj @CMAGAdFacts https://t.co/98VejRrS9a

Hello Plato darling.....I was almost going to send out a search party.....

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

I voted LEAVE and I want EEA or EFTA, or as close as.

Yes but you are a wealthy thriller writer leaving in Camden, I may be wrong but I don't think it was wealthy novelists living in central London who won the referendum for Leave, welcome though your support was but working and lower middle class voters in the North and Midlands

Its not been noted much but Leave was also very strong in coastal areas.

With the exception of Brighton, Lewes and South Hams every coastal district from Berwick to the Bristol Channel was Leave, including the five strongest Leave areas.

Yes but I doubt most of the retired pensioners who formed the bulk of the Leave vote in those areas are as wealthy as SeanT

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

The thread clogged up with Brexit as per usual, I see. Here's a job that some of you might like to apply for:

https://jobs.theguardian.com/job/6413994/policy-leads/?TrackID=1258221&BatchID=753&utm_source=eml&utm_medium=sygntd&utm_campaign=jobalert&utm_content=text_link&CMP_TU=jbsr&CMP_BUNIT=jobs&CMP=ema_jobalert

Amusing that they've advertised it in the Guardian!

' Salary £30,418 - £38,484 '

That doesn't sound much for what appears to be an important position in central London.

So I'll give it a pass.

That is a pittance for what is clearly not an entry level role in central London.

MTimT said:

another_richard said:

Its a process which has been happening for years (and in the USA for even longer) but Brexit has given it a focus point.

We've become a society where wealth consumption is prized too highly whilst wealth creation is regarded almost as an optional.

And when there isn't enough wealth being created to feed the consumption the only way to acquire the extra wealth is to take it from someone else. Demonising of the someone else helps to make this justifiable, even righteous.

We need to concentrate much more on quality of life issues rather living standards.

Reading an interesting book on why people act the way they do ("Why We Do What We Do, Edward Deci). He posits that for most of us there are six main motivators - three extrinsic (money, fame and attractiveness) and three intrinsic (autonomy, competence/mastery and relatedness/belonging). When any one of the 3 extrinsic motivators is given importance out of proportion of the others, and in particular out of proportion with the intrinsic motivators, he argues that unhappiness and poor mental health ultimately result. He takes that up at a societal level to rail against the primacy given to materialism in the American Dream and the social unhappiness that has inevitably engendered.

As a conservative libertarian, I am still processing his logic. But it is certainly making me rethink some of my most basic beliefs about what should be important, both at an individual and societal level. Economics is not, nor should be, the be all and end all.

My hope is that the Brexit and Trump phenomena will get this across to our politicians and that some sort of policy rebalancing occurs.

I've never heard of him before but it looks like an interesting book:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Why-We-Do-What/dp/0140255265/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1478289002&sr=8-1&keywords=edward+deci

Oooppps ....

Forgot to post this interesting report .... (I blame the Murray tiebreak) .... worth a gander :

http://saintpetersblog.com/robbie-mook-says-hillary-clinton-leading-donald-trump-early-vote-florida-170000-votes/

Absolutely off now ....

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

TOPPING said:

another_richard said:

JosiasJessop said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Given the focus of much

o claim victory as their own whilst ignoring the others.

I do not agree with HYFUD much, but I too am a former Remainer turned hard Brexit. Immigration, ending payments and stopping foreigners having a say over our laws are what clinched it. If we get less than hard Brexit the cries of betrayal from the bitter-enders will poison our politics for years.

It is like a couple divorcing. Years later it is possible to be civil, but not while the lawyers divvie up the assets. In a decade or so time we may be ready to have a more positive attitude, but the near future is not going to happen.

The thing I'm worried about is it not poisoning our politics, but it poisoning our society.

Its a process which has been happening for years (and in the USA for even longer) but Brexit has given it a focus point.

We've become a society where wealth consumption is prized too highly whilst wealth creation is regarded almost as an optional.

And when there isn't enough wealth being created to feed the consumption the only way to acquire the extra wealth is to take it from someone else. Demonising of the someone else helps to make this justifiable, even righteous.

We need to concentrate much more on quality of life issues rather living standards.

Easy when you have lots of stuff and can opine at leisure about how materialist we have become. Less easy when you on minimum wage or thereabouts, do an honest and good days' work, have to put food on the table, manage your childrens' demands for trainers (or ipads) just like everyone else's, and wonder how you are going to afford a week in Majorca.

Your post sounds like it came from Green Party HQ. Plus who are you to say that a 40" flatscreen TV doesn't contribute to quality of life. What would you have people do? Read Proust all evening?

The nice TV does contribute but does having another and then another and then having a newer and then having an even newer and then having a bigger and then having an even bigger.

And is it worth the extra debt needed for all the TVs and the loss of free time for all the extra work required.

BTW we're all on PB, something which brings great deal of pleasure (and sometimes learning) and is FREE.

And I have voted Green a time or two.

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Well we can hardly do otherwise than make the most of it now, short of some major event changing minds.

On this Phillips business, I've never heard of the.

Mind you he also says he supported Leave, ridiculous! I mean I can understand Remainers who want soft Brexit at all costs or ?

There are a lot of us who like Phillips wanted and campaigned for a soft Brexit. There are more than a few of us on here who want exactly that - an EEA type relationship with the EU. Just because it is not what you wanted doesn't mean it is not a respectable wish. And one that is entirely possible. Indeed I have a £100 bet with Richard Nabavi on that very outcome. I know Phillips wanted that because I campaigned alongside him.

Given the focus of much of the Leave campaign on immigration, which was crucial in taking them over the line in many white working class

I am well aware you voted remain. We discussed it enough before the vote. But you like many

I have no doubt you played your part in the Leave victory but Leave would almost certainly not have got over 50% of the vote without the support of voters who wanted to control immigration, that was a key plank of your side's campaign platform, you cannot now disown it completely because it is no longer convenient I am afraid

I disowned it all the time we were actually fighting it. Go back and look at my comments on here. We should I suddenly sign up to it when we won when I didn't while we were still campaigning? Sorry but you are just letting your own bigoted view of Leavers colour your comments.

That was part of the platform of the Vote Leave campaign, whether you personally disliked it or not that was a pivotal campaign of the Leave programme and you knew it when you voted for it and that there was a high likelihood it would be implemented if Leave won

Doesn't matter.
The democratic legitimacy of the result (that it was supported by 50%+ of those who voted) has been emphasised as crucial by the winning side.

This means that you have to demonstrate that over 96% of the Leave voters supported your anti-immigration position for that to be explicitly valid. If that's not possible, then no variant of Brexit has explicit legitimacy and we have to find the best compromise variant for everyone - not just the most hardline Leavers.

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/794622101504266240

Reminding us that the position of Leader of the Labour Party is still a thing.

God what a motley crew of speakers...Jezza, antisemitic NUS press, Midlife crisis mason, etc etc etc

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Ex-Australian PM John Howard says he would have voted to leave the EU had he been British and urges Britain to make the most of it
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/exaustralian-prime-minister-john-howard-on-why-we-should-make-the-most-of-brexit-a3387201.html

Well we can hardly do otherwise than make the most of it now, short of some major event changing minds.

On this Phillips business, I've never heard of the man, but given there seem to be plenty of MPs and party members so at odds with their parties and their direction that it seems silly how tribally supportive they remain (even if only refusing to back anyone else even if objectively they seem to suit them more), it's almost refreshign to see someone just be clear, the label they were elected under no longer fits them.

Mind you he also says he supported Leave, ridiculous! I mean I can understand Remainers who want soft Brexit at all costs or even to try and keep us in the EU and I can understand Leavers who want hard Brexit and to end free movement and leave the single market but I really cannot understand those who campaigned for Leave and are now furious that the free trade, soft Brexit nirvana they wanted may not come fully to fruition. What on earth did they think would happen after a Leave vote?

There are a lot of us who like Phillips wanted and campaigned for a soft Brexit. There are more than a few of us on here who want exactly that - an EEA type relationship with the EU. Just because it is not what you wanted doesn't mean it is not a respectable wish. And one that is entirely possible. Indeed I have a £100 bet with Richard Nabavi on that very outcome. I know Phillips wanted that because I campaigned alongside him.

How about the others there campaigning alongside the two of you.

Soft Brexiters also?

Some yes, some no. Just as you would expect. Although of course at the time the discussion was not of hard vs soft, simply of leaving the EU.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/794622101504266240

Reminding us that the position of Leader of the Labour Party is still a thing.

God what a motley crew of speakers...Jezza, antisemitic NUS press, Midlife crisis mason, etc etc etc

The Emperor Jezza: fiddling while the Treaty of Rome burns

Hillary Clinton's average lead in Pennsylvania is down to 2.6 points. Maybe one of the most worrying states for her at present.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

Scott_P said:

@GlenMitchell1: Suzanne Evans doesn't want Parliament involved in Article 50. But wants 1972 EC Act repealed instead. Which only Parliament could do...

there's a bill before parliament for that already

Andy_Cooke said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Well we can hardly do otherwise than make the most of it now, short of some major event changing minds.

On this Phillips business, I've never heard of the.

Mind you he also says he supported Leave, ridiculous! I mean I can understand Remainers who want soft Brexit at all costs or ?

There are a lot of us who like Phillips wanted and campaigned for a soft Brexit. There are more than a few of us on here who want exactly that - an EEA type relationship with the EU. Just because it is not what you wanted doesn't mean it is not a respectable wish. And one that is entirely possible. Indeed I have a £100 bet with Richard Nabavi on that very outcome. I know Phillips wanted that because I campaigned alongside him.

Given the focus of much of the Leave campaign on immigration, which was crucial in taking them over the line in many white working class

I am well aware you voted remain. We discussed it enough before the vote. But you like many

I have no doubt you played your part in the Leave victory but Leave would almost certainly not have got over 50% of the vote without the support of voters who wanted to control immigration, that was a key plank of your side's campaign platform, you cannot now disown it completely because it is no longer convenient I am afraid

I disowned it all the time we were actually fighting it. Go back and look at my comments on here. We should I suddenly sign up to it when we won when I didn't while we were still

That was part of the platform of the Vote Leave campaign, whether you personally disliked it or

Doesn't matter.
The democratic legitimacy of the result (that it was supported by 50%+ of those who voted) has been emphasised as crucial by the winning side.

This means that you have to demonstrate that over 96% of the Leave voters supported your anti-immigration position for that to be explicitly valid. If that's not possible, then no variant of Brexit has explicit legitimacy and we have to find the best compromise variant for everyone - not just the most hardline Leavers.

Even if you include Remainers a clear majority of the country wants the PM to try and control immigration, for her to refuse to even try would be electoral suicide. In any case when a party wins a general election it has a mandate for its manifesto even if significantly less than 50% voted for each plank of it, over 50% voted for the Leave referendum manifesto

MP_SE said:

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

The thread clogged up with Brexit as per usual, I see. Here's a job that some of you might like to apply for:

https://jobs.theguardian.com/job/6413994/policy-leads/?TrackID=1258221&BatchID=753&utm_source=eml&utm_medium=sygntd&utm_campaign=jobalert&utm_content=text_link&CMP_TU=jbsr&CMP_BUNIT=jobs&CMP=ema_jobalert

Amusing that they've advertised it in the Guardian!

' Salary £30,418 - £38,484 '

That doesn't sound much for what appears to be an important position in central London.

So I'll give it a pass.

That is a pittance for what is clearly not an entry level role in central London.

"25 days holiday" - isn't 28 days the legal minimum?

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

Was there any CAP reform such that farmers were disadvantaged (relative to previous) in any of the treaties subsequent to EEC membership ?

IT'S ABOUT RIGHTS, not about being financially better off or worse off. I am not a legal expert, so if there is one reading this, feel free to correct this, but I imagine the issue to be things like the right to free movement. I don't know if it includes things we got later on, like working time directive rights or holiday entitlements etc etc.

Why should the right to free movement (which I happen to be in favour of) trump the right of a farmer to sell his apples or of a fisherman to catch fish. There are many people who had their rights (and their livelihoods) curtailed by the EU. They have just as much right to be heard as someone who wants to retire to Alicante.

On fishing, which has been mentioned several times on here today: I was surprised a few weeks ago to see figures that indicated that whilst the trawler fleet and jobs have been decimated, the catch in tonnes has not decreased anywhere near as much.

It'd be good to see more figures. Certainly, (1) seems to show tonnages static since 2005 - though figures before that date would be useful. Might a large part of the story being a chnaging way of life due to new technologies, rather than just the EU?

(I'm not excusing some of the fishery policies, such as the restrictions on the size of fish that can be landed).

(1): http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Total_catches_in_selected_fishing_regions,_2005–2015_(¹)_(thousand_tonnes_live_weight)_YB16.png

Edit: chart 1 of researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02788/SN02788.pdf also seems useful.

Much of that catch has been by foreign trawlers. There is no longer any such thing as national waters outside the 12 mile limit. It is all EU common resource and fishing rights are assigned accordingly.

I thought outside the 12 mile limit was international anyway? Is that going to change post-Brexit?

I'd assumed the furore with the EU was for within the limit not outside it.

AndyJS said:

New Hampshire is suddenly looking encouraging for Trump. Latest 5 polls either have a tie or Trump ahead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6022.html#polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Just change FL and he's at 270.

Sleaford by-election could be on 8th December if writ is moved on Monday.

https://twitter.com/DavidJo52951945/status/794634798136442881

HYUFD said:

twitter.com/DavidJo52951945/status/794634798136442881

Point of order, Fawkes tried to bring down Parliament

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

Was there any CAP reform such that farmers were disadvantaged (relative to previous) in any of the treaties subsequent to EEC membership ?

IT'S ABOUT RIGHTS, not about being financially better off or worse off. I am not a legal expert, so if there is one reading this, feel free to correct this, but I imagine the issue to be things like the right to free movement. I don't know if it includes things we got later on, like working time directive rights or holiday entitlements etc etc.

Why should the right to free movement (which I happen to be in favour of) trump the right of a farmer to sell his apples or of a fisherman to catch fish. There are many people who had their rights (and their livelihoods) curtailed by the EU. They have just as much right to be heard as someone who wants to retire to Alicante.

On fishing, which has been mentioned several times on here today: I was surprised a few weeks ago to see figures that indicated that whilst the trawler fleet and jobs have been decimated, the catch in tonnes has not decreased anywhere near as much.

It'd be good to see more figures. Certainly, (1) seems to show tonnages static since 2005 - though figures before that date would be useful. Might a large part of the story being a chnaging way of life due to new technologies, rather than just the EU?

(I'm not excusing some of the fishery policies, such as the restrictions on the size of fish that can be landed).

(1): http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Total_catches_in_selected_fishing_regions,_2005–2015_(¹)_(thousand_tonnes_live_weight)_YB16.png

Edit: chart 1 of researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02788/SN02788.pdf also seems useful.

Much of that catch has been by foreign trawlers. There is no longer any such thing as national waters outside the 12 mile limit. It is all EU common resource and fishing rights are assigned accordingly.

The figures in the link mentioned in my edit are for UK vessels into UK ports. It shows a similar story since 1994.

Edit: I daresay you'll disagree with it, but there's the following about the EU and fisheries:
http://nffo.org.uk/eu-referendum/2016/05/09/fisheries-facts-not-fantasy

For those who take an interest in such things:

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/794634414366007297

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/794634614086176768

I still can't bring myself to get too excited about local government by-elections. But insofar as it goes, it's more bad news for the main Opposition mid-term, and more encouraging news for both the Government and the Lib Dems.

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

MrsB said:

Pulpstar said:

Was there any CAP reform such that farmers were disadvantaged (relative to previous) in any of the treaties subsequent to EEC membership ?

IT'S ABOUT RIGHTS, not about being financially better off or worse off. I am not a legal expert, so if there is one reading this, feel free to correct this, but I imagine the issue to be things like the right to free movement. I don't know if it includes things we got later on, like working time directive rights or holiday entitlements etc etc.

Why should the right to free movement (which I happen to be in favour of) trump the right of a farmer to sell his apples or of a fisherman to catch fish. There are many people who had their rights (and their livelihoods) curtailed by the EU. They have just as much right to be heard as someone who wants to retire to Alicante.

On fishing, which has been mentioned several times on here today: I was surprised a few weeks ago to see figures that indicated that whilst the trawler fleet and jobs have been decimated, the catch in tonnes has not decreased anywhere near as much.

It'd be good to see more figures. Certainly, (1) seems to show tonnages static since 2005 - though figures before that date would be useful. Might a large part of the story being a chnaging way of life due to new technologies, rather than just the EU?

(I'm not excusing some of the fishery policies, such as the restrictions on the size of fish that can be landed).

(1): http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Total_catches_in_selected_fishing_regions,_2005–2015_(¹)_(thousand_tonnes_live_weight)_YB16.png

Edit: chart 1 of researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02788/SN02788.pdf also seems useful.

Much of that catch has been by foreign trawlers. There is no longer any such thing as national waters outside the 12 mile limit. It is all EU common resource and fishing rights are assigned accordingly.

I thought outside the 12 mile limit was international anyway? Is that going to change post-Brexit?

I'd assumed the furore with the EU was for within the limit not outside it.

Nope. Fishing rights are divided up in the same way as oil rights with a 200 nautical mile limit or a line equidistant between states. Prior to the UK joining the EU the fishing rights for the North Sea were split along those boundaries between the states bordering the sea. They became common EU resource after the UK joined.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

I voted LEAVE and I want EEA or EFTA, or as close as.

Yes but you are a wealthy thriller writer leaving in Camden, I may be wrong but I don't think it was wealthy novelists living in central London who won the referendum for Leave, welcome though your support was but working and lower middle class voters in the North and Midlands

Irrespective, it is the job of the government to find the exit that gets the support of 70% of the populations, not 51% of Leave voters.

You cannot assume that 100% of Remain voters want a soft Brexit. To many the option of the EEA or similar is tbe worst of both worlds.

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

I voted LEAVE and I want EEA or EFTA, or as close as.

Yes but you are a wealthy thriller writer leaving in Camden, I may be wrong but I don't think it was wealthy novelists living in central London who won the referendum for Leave, welcome though your support was but working and lower middle class voters in the North and Midlands

Irrespective, it is the job of the government to find the exit that gets the support of 70% of the populations, not 51% of Leave voters.

You cannot assume that 100% of Remain voters want a soft Brexit. To many the option of the EEA or similar is tbe worst of both worlds.

Indeed, I voted Remain but would vote against any Brexit now which did not include immigration controls in at least some form, otherwise we will be a laughing stock while stoking up huge resentment amongst the white working class which is potentially dangerous

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

I voted LEAVE and I want EEA or EFTA, or as close as.

Yes but you are a wealthy thriller writer leaving in Camden, I may be wrong but I don't think it was wealthy novelists living in central London who won the referendum for Leave, welcome though your support was but working and lower middle class voters in the North and Midlands

Irrespective, it is the job of the government to find the exit that gets the support of 70% of the populations, not 51% of Leave voters.

You cannot assume that 100% of Remain voters want a soft Brexit. To many the option of the EEA or similar is tbe worst of both worlds.

They must be really, really stupid then.

AndyJS said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AndyJS said:

Sleaford and North Hykeham is the next door constituency to Newark where there was a by-election in 2014.

Very different constituencies though. (I lived in Newark for 35 years and have lived in the Sleaford and N Hykeham constituency for the last 9 years)

Would it be correct to say UKIP have more potential in Sleaford than Newark?

Yes but not that much. It is difficult to tell because the big factor is the Tory candidate. UKIP did better than I would have expected in Newark because the Tory candidate was pro-EU. But as I said at the time I really didn't think Helmer stood any chance of actually winning Newark.

In Sleaford if the Tories pick a clear Eurofanatic a la Soubry then they might be in trouble. Might but probably not. Anyone else at all and I think they will walk it.