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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcome

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcomes then Clinton should do it on Tuesday

Gallup

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,406
    edited November 2016
    Bugger - I was planning to do a thread on this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,406
    FPT - The front page of the Express, Mail, Telegraph, and Sun would be something to behold if Sinn Fein blocked Brexit.

    Oh my, Mrs May's majority is getting even smaller

    https://twitter.com/BelTel/status/794562158692564993
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 73,010
    But how many think unfavourably of Trump yet will vote for him anyway ?
    After all, we can name a few congressmen and senators who do, and will.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bugger - I was planning to do a thread on this.

    Never mind - instead you could write a thread on how MPs are required to pledge their allegiance to the Sovereign.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    FPT

    If Sinn Fein swear the oath to Liz, then I reckon the Orange Order will have a parade


    the OO are a very progressive organisation, they may ask Marty to join
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - The front page of the Express, Mail, Telegraph, and Sun would be something to behold if Sinn Fein blocked Brexit.

    Oh my, Mrs May's majority is getting even smaller

    At what point will the Brexit mob realise that they can have Brexit or they can have Britain, but not both?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Glenn, the electorate voted to leave the EU. At what point will the political class realise they can have democracy, or ignore the referendum, but not both?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    "If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcomes then Clinton should do it on Tuesday"

    Here's hoping you're right Mike, for my sake as much as yours!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - The front page of the Express, Mail, Telegraph, and Sun would be something to behold if Sinn Fein blocked Brexit.

    Oh my, Mrs May's majority is getting even smaller

    At what point will the Brexit mob realise that they can have Brexit or they can have Britain, but not both?
    TINA

    but of course there always is, you just lack imagination and ambition
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - The front page of the Express, Mail, Telegraph, and Sun would be something to behold if Sinn Fein blocked Brexit.

    Oh my, Mrs May's majority is getting even smaller

    At what point will the Brexit mob realise that they can have Brexit or they can have Britain, but not both?
    TINA

    but of course there always is, you just lack imagination and ambition
    No, I lack the will. Brexit isn't my lookout.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    You can see why Cameron has hopped swiftly out of parliament to be perfectly honest.

    Walking away from the crap he's left all over the floor.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    peter_from_putney said:

    "If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcomes then Clinton should do it on Tuesday"

    Here's hoping you're right Mike, for my sake as much as yours!

    A dull election, with only three states changing hands. OH, IA, NC. HC wins 323 - 215.

    This is my view, for the moment.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    edited November 2016
    williamglenn said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - The front page of the Express, Mail, Telegraph, and Sun would be something to behold if Sinn Fein blocked Brexit.

    Oh my, Mrs May's majority is getting even smaller

    At what point will the Brexit mob realise that they can have Brexit or they can have Britain, but not both?
    TINA

    but of course there always is, you just lack imagination and ambition
    No, I lack the will. Brexit isn't my lookout.
    Of course, but just because you have a monoscopic outlook on life doesnt mean everyone else has. That's one of the joys of this country and Europe, we have lots of variety.

    Vive La Difference
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    peter_from_putney said:

    "If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcomes then Clinton should do it on Tuesday"

    Here's hoping you're right Mike, for my sake as much as yours!

    Ah, but Gallup have had few successes in the last few elections.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    edited November 2016
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - The front page of the Express, Mail, Telegraph, and Sun would be something to behold if Sinn Fein blocked Brexit.

    Oh my, Mrs May's majority is getting even smaller

    At what point will the Brexit mob realise that they can have Brexit or they can have Britain, but not both?
    Sinn Fein coming to Parliament to defeat the Brexit vote would be just awesome. Win or lose they would taint the Europhiles forever and the result would be a GE where we could rightly say that the anti-Brexit crowd only won because of the support of terrorists. The Brexit campaign would have a field day.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    What odds does anyone put on Sinn Fein taking their seats at Westminster?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Alanbrooke said:

    FPT

    If Sinn Fein swear the oath to Liz, then I reckon the Orange Order will have a parade


    the OO are a very progressive organisation, they may ask Marty to join

    What will a bookie offer me on McGuinness swearing the oath in a Glasgow Rangers top ?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    The Brexit vote is never going to come down to 4 votes making the difference.

    Where SF really could make a difference is in stopping the boundary changes. If they show up for that, then I think the boundary changes are almost certainly defeated.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Pulpstar said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    FPT

    If Sinn Fein swear the oath to Liz, then I reckon the Orange Order will have a parade


    the OO are a very progressive organisation, they may ask Marty to join

    What will a bookie offer me on McGuinness swearing the oath in a Glasgow Rangers top ?
    actually, I find Marty ok, Gerry's just a sleaze bag.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,836
    edited November 2016
    I don't know why governments even bother to say they are confident of winning appeals to legal rulings. They could well win and be rightly confident of that, but obviously they're always confident of winning in the first place too.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Very good set of polls for Clinton just out from PPP:

    Clinton leading in all of WI, PA, NH, NC and NV.

    Enough to push her 538 win % up by over 1%.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,252
    MikeL said:

    The Brexit vote is never going to come down to 4 votes making the difference.

    Where SF really could make a difference is in stopping the boundary changes. If they show up for that, then I think the boundary changes are almost certainly defeated.

    The first draft of the boundary changes in NI are good for SF
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited November 2016
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    MikeL said:

    The Brexit vote is never going to come down to 4 votes making the difference.

    Where SF really could make a difference is in stopping the boundary changes. If they show up for that, then I think the boundary changes are almost certainly defeated.

    The first draft of the boundary changes in NI are good for SF
    Fair point - had forgotten that - they could well vote for them if they turned up.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bugger - I was planning to do a thread on this.

    Get off your arse and publish the USA voter identification thread you were talking about.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 1,200 - 31 Oct - 2 Nov

    Clinton 44 .. Trump 39

    http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/page/president_poll_daily_tracker.html#incart_std
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    SF taking their seats feels like a PaddyPower special!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,128
    kle4 said:

    I don't why governments even bother to say they are confident of winning appeals to legal rulings. They could well win and be rightly confident of that, but obviously they're always confident of winning in the first place too.

    Assume just buying time and closing down the alternatives for now and providing thinking space on their next step if the verdict goes against them.

    I do wonder just what the print media will do or say if they block A50 again. Today's headlines were so over the top but judging from twitter and the broadcast media they hit a very large amount of agreement
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    I don't know why governments even bother to say they are confident of winning appeals to legal rulings. They could well win and be rightly confident of that, but obviously they're always confident of winning in the first place too.

    Probably the same reason any side ever does. Hardly much point saying "we think we'll lose but who knows why not just try our luck and see?"
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT - The front page of the Express, Mail, Telegraph, and Sun would be something to behold if Sinn Fein blocked Brexit.

    Oh my, Mrs May's majority is getting even smaller

    At what point will the Brexit mob realise that they can have Brexit or they can have Britain, but not both?
    Why? Are any bits of Britain necessarily going anywhere because of all of this? As I think we all gather, there are some pretty huge obstacles to either Scotland or Northern Ireland going their own way.

    That much said, if it comes down to a choice between the UK as either a state within a federal EU or one of its protectorates, or England (or an Anglo-Welsh Britain) outside of it, then I vote for the latter. Every time.

    It's a question of priorities.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Chris Christie top aides found guilty on Bridgegate charges.

    Who's in charge of staffing up the Whitehouse if Trump wins?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Relative decline or absolute decline?

    (((Subodh Chandra)))
    44m
    (((Subodh Chandra))) ‏@SubodhChandra
    BREAKING: US Judge Gwin is granting a temporary-restraining order against @realDonaldTrump campaign to forbid voter-intimidation! @OHDems
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,836
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't why governments even bother to say they are confident of winning appeals to legal rulings. They could well win and be rightly confident of that, but obviously they're always confident of winning in the first place too.

    Assume just buying time and closing down the alternatives for now and providing thinking space on their next step if the verdict goes against them.

    I do wonder just what the print media will do or say if they block A50 again. Today's headlines were so over the top but judging from twitter and the broadcast media they hit a very large amount of agreement
    It was pretty ridiculous, but I guess it hits a nerve for many that Brexit might be taken away, even though that is not what the legal judgement was about at all, regardless of what the claimants hope to inspire.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. NorthWales, quite. There is a risk the media overegg things, but most people, I think, will be surprised at least and angered at most by the ruling.

    Lining up to oppose Article 50 we have the likes of Blair, Clegg, the SNP and Sinn Fein. Not a good look.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    "If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcomes then Clinton should do it on Tuesday"

    Here's hoping you're right Mike, for my sake as much as yours!

    A dull election, with only three states changing hands. OH, IA, NC. HC wins 323 - 215.

    This is my view, for the moment.
    I'm staying with 308 - 229 -1 for now and *gulp* just about a break even on my spread-betting. Hopefully a few tidy pick-ups on some single state betting, like your very tasty suggestion yesterday in relation to Utah which looked like the easiest money over the entire campaign.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, quite. There is a risk the media overegg things, but most people, I think, will be surprised at least and angered at most by the ruling.

    Lining up to oppose Article 50 we have the likes of Blair, Clegg, the SNP and Sinn Fein. Not a good look.

    It's looking fun atm

    Both Labour and the LDs are chasing the same metropolitan lefty voters

    Labour are ignoring their traditional WWC constituency and the LDs are making sure they remain seatless in the SW

    Could be one of those times of change coming up
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    Alanbrooke said:

    Could be one of those times of change coming up

    We're one recession away from Corbyn in Downing Street...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,128
    As an aside my wife and I moved in the same social circles as Gordon Anglesea who has been convicted today at the age of 79 to 12 years for abusing children in North Wales.

    He was in Round Table, Rotary, Freemasons and a lay preacher as well as a Chief Superintendent of Police.

    It is just awful to realise he was performing these disgusting acts while socialising with us and has upset us greatly
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    williamglenn said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Could be one of those times of change coming up

    We're one recession away from Corbyn in Downing Street...
    well makes a change from an Osborne one
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    edited November 2016
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    "If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcomes then Clinton should do it on Tuesday"

    Here's hoping you're right Mike, for my sake as much as yours!

    A dull election, with only three states changing hands. OH, IA, NC. HC wins 323 - 215.

    This is my view, for the moment.
    I'm staying with 308 - 229 -1 for now and *gulp* just about a break even on my spread-betting. Hopefully a few tidy pick-ups on some single state betting, like your very tasty suggestion yesterday in relation to Utah which looked like the easiest money over the entire campaign.
    Yep I have to say I think it is my favourite "straight up" bet of the election, rather than any more errm nefarious stuff ;)

    I await my 1-70 on Maryland and California to arrive with enough profit for about 4 pints of beer too.

    And the 1-50 on DC :D
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    williamglenn said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Could be one of those times of change coming up

    We're one recession away from Corbyn in Downing Street...
    No we are not. There is more chance of me becoming PM that Corbers....

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,982
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    As an aside my wife and I moved in the same social circles as Gordon Anglesea who has been convicted today at the age of 79 to 12 years for abusing children in North Wales.

    He was in Round Table, Rotary, Freemasons and a lay preacher as well as a Chief Superintendent of Police.

    It is just awful to realise he was performing these disgusting acts while socialising with us and has upset us greatly

    A schoolfriend of mine had marks - old scars - on his back. This was in 1990/1 period. When asked what they were, he replied they were where his father had hit him with a poker and other objects when he was a child.

    Having met his father, and knowing a fair bit about the family, I could believe it.

    His father was a JP.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,128
    Alanbrooke said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, quite. There is a risk the media overegg things, but most people, I think, will be surprised at least and angered at most by the ruling.

    Lining up to oppose Article 50 we have the likes of Blair, Clegg, the SNP and Sinn Fein. Not a good look.

    It's looking fun atm

    Both Labour and the LDs are chasing the same metropolitan lefty voters

    Labour are ignoring their traditional WWC constituency and the LDs are making sure they remain seatless in the SW

    Could be one of those times of change coming up
    Has Starmer announced today that labour support leaving the single market as rumoured as that would be a huge move and open the way to them agreeing to restrict free movement of labour
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. NorthWales, I know (to an extent) what you mean.

    I saw some time ago that a school friend of mine had been convicted of multiple sexual assaults/rape. That was a rather odd feeling.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,406
    I'm nucking fackered, so can anyone spot any value in this market?

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2718290
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Cilic getting soooo close now
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, quite. There is a risk the media overegg things, but most people, I think, will be surprised at least and angered at most by the ruling.

    Lining up to oppose Article 50 we have the likes of Blair, Clegg, the SNP and Sinn Fein. Not a good look.

    It's looking fun atm

    Both Labour and the LDs are chasing the same metropolitan lefty voters

    Labour are ignoring their traditional WWC constituency and the LDs are making sure they remain seatless in the SW

    Could be one of those times of change coming up
    Has Starmer announced today that labour support leaving the single market as rumoured as that would be a huge move and open the way to them agreeing to restrict free movement of labour
    let's see him get that past the activists
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Djokovic Out ....

    Murray will be world number 1 if he reaches the final in Paris
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    "If leader ratings are indeed a good guide to electoral outcomes then Clinton should do it on Tuesday"

    Here's hoping you're right Mike, for my sake as much as yours!

    A dull election, with only three states changing hands. OH, IA, NC. HC wins 323 - 215.

    This is my view, for the moment.
    I'm staying with 308 - 229 -1 for now and *gulp* just about a break even on my spread-betting. Hopefully a few tidy pick-ups on some single state betting, like your very tasty suggestion yesterday in relation to Utah which looked like the easiest money over the entire campaign.
    I got Hillary at 295 this morning which I think's a good bet. Earlier I had her at 302. That's the limit of my exposure though I picked up nice little pot with SPIN on the LD vote share at Witney.

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    JackW said:

    Djokovic Out ....

    Murray will be world number 1 if he reaches the final in Paris

    I posted earlier that Clic would be tricky. When big Marin plays his A game there is no-one in mens tennis that can stay with him...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/794594040419381248

    He's only playing follow the leader. The Lib Dems really are morphing into the anti-Ukip, a one-trick pony protest movement dedicated to stopping Brexit (or, failing that, applying to rejoin the EU as swiftly as possible.)

    If you're waiting for the revival of the yellows as a significant force in the Commons, I think you may well be waiting for a very long time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm nucking fackered, so can anyone spot any value in this market?

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2718290

    No. They all look piss poor to me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    What a charmer....

    http://order-order.com/2016/11/04/sadiqs-night-czars-foul-mouthed-tory-scum-tweets/
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/794594040419381248

    He's only playing follow the leader. The Lib Dems really are morphing into the anti-Ukip, a one-trick pony protest movement dedicated to stopping Brexit (or, failing that, applying to rejoin the EU as swiftly as possible.)

    If you're waiting for the revival of the yellows as a significant force in the Commons, I think you may well be waiting for a very long time.

    can we have a second vote on uni fees ?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, I know (to an extent) what you mean.

    I saw some time ago that a school friend of mine had been convicted of multiple sexual assaults/rape. That was a rather odd feeling.

    I see what you mean....I found it a bit odd when my inspirational teacher at school was collared as a kiddie fiddler...Fred Talbot; but even stranger, is my old Latin class mate, a very shy and pasty, looking lad from Timperley, from a humble background, wouldn't say boo to a goose is now chairing the 1922 committee...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What a charmer....

    http://order-order.com/2016/11/04/sadiqs-night-czars-foul-mouthed-tory-scum-tweets/

    I missed this appointment... She's a minor stand-up comedian. What on Earth is Sadiq Khan giving her a non-job for?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    @TheScreamingEagles The Maine/NEw Hampshire Trump double is probably the "least worst" though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,128
    Alanbrooke said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, quite. There is a risk the media overegg things, but most people, I think, will be surprised at least and angered at most by the ruling.

    Lining up to oppose Article 50 we have the likes of Blair, Clegg, the SNP and Sinn Fein. Not a good look.

    It's looking fun atm

    Both Labour and the LDs are chasing the same metropolitan lefty voters

    Labour are ignoring their traditional WWC constituency and the LDs are making sure they remain seatless in the SW

    Could be one of those times of change coming up
    Has Starmer announced today that labour support leaving the single market as rumoured as that would be a huge move and open the way to them agreeing to restrict free movement of labour
    let's see him get that past the activists
    He is labour's Brexit Sec and if he has said this today it is amazing volte face
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    williamglenn said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What a charmer....

    http://order-order.com/2016/11/04/sadiqs-night-czars-foul-mouthed-tory-scum-tweets/

    I missed this appointment... She's a minor stand-up comedian. What on Earth is Sadiq Khan giving her a non-job for?
    Even the guardian are asking this question & mocking this public sector non-job...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Alanbrooke said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, quite. There is a risk the media overegg things, but most people, I think, will be surprised at least and angered at most by the ruling.

    Lining up to oppose Article 50 we have the likes of Blair, Clegg, the SNP and Sinn Fein. Not a good look.

    It's looking fun atm

    Both Labour and the LDs are chasing the same metropolitan lefty voters

    Labour are ignoring their traditional WWC constituency and the LDs are making sure they remain seatless in the SW

    Could be one of those times of change coming up
    Has Starmer announced today that labour support leaving the single market as rumoured as that would be a huge move and open the way to them agreeing to restrict free movement of labour
    let's see him get that past the activists
    The Corbyn-leaning membership, along with a large cohort of No Borders, universalist Labour MPs, will go apeshit over racist, xenophobic border controls. And who knows, perhaps Labour will split into idiot and halfway sensible factions after all...?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    JackW said:

    Djokovic Out ....

    Murray will be world number 1 if he reaches the final in Paris


    And Jack W....Murray looks to get a good run as Numero Uno too once he gets there. He's not protecting many points in the front half of next year.....

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,421
    This PDF gives a short and clear summary of yesterday's Article 50 judgment. The essential point of law is that parliament has sovereignty that can't be overridden by the executive except where particular powers are reserved. Making and breaking treaties is a reserved power but removal of citizen rights isn't. Some of those rights come from the EU, so triggering Article 50 will automatically remove them.

    If I understand this summary correctly, it puts the government in a worse position than it would have been if it had put Article 50 in front of parliament in the first place. That's because it merges the end result with the initial procedural step, rather than keeping them separate as the government was hoping,. It focuses the debate on what happens afterwards. That's probably why the government is hoping for a reprieve from the Supreme Court.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,128
    Alanbrooke said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/794594040419381248

    He's only playing follow the leader. The Lib Dems really are morphing into the anti-Ukip, a one-trick pony protest movement dedicated to stopping Brexit (or, failing that, applying to rejoin the EU as swiftly as possible.)

    If you're waiting for the revival of the yellows as a significant force in the Commons, I think you may well be waiting for a very long time.

    can we have a second vote on uni fees ?
    Labour's leader in the House of Lords dismissed the Lib Dems as the party of 8 MP's and that labour will not support a second referendum in the HOL
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tyson said:

    JackW said:

    Djokovic Out ....

    Murray will be world number 1 if he reaches the final in Paris


    And Jack W....Murray looks to get a good run as Numero Uno too once he gets there. He's not protecting many points in the front half of next year.....

    Indeed. Essentially just the Oz open final points
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/794594040419381248

    He's only playing follow the leader. The Lib Dems really are morphing into the anti-Ukip, a one-trick pony protest movement dedicated to stopping Brexit (or, failing that, applying to rejoin the EU as swiftly as possible.)

    If you're waiting for the revival of the yellows as a significant force in the Commons, I think you may well be waiting for a very long time.

    can we have a second vote on uni fees ?
    Labour's leader in the House of Lords dismissed the Lib Dems as the party of 8 MP's and that labour will not support a second referendum in the HOL
    Cleggy's on a suicide mission
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    Given a majority of Americans have unfavourable views of both Clinton and Trump, I don't think these numbers are a great deal of help
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm nucking fackered, so can anyone spot any value in this market?

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2718290

    Jill Stein 0-1% at 4/1 looks tremendous value to me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    FF43 said:

    This PDF gives a short and clear summary of yesterday's Article 50 judgment. The essential point of law is that parliament has sovereignty that can't be overridden by the executive except where particular powers are reserved. Making and breaking treaties is a reserved power but removal of citizen rights isn't. Some of those rights come from the EU, so triggering Article 50 will automatically remove them.

    If I understand this summary correctly, it puts the government in a worse position than it would have been if it had put Article 50 in front of parliament in the first place. That's because it merges the end result with the initial procedural step, rather than keeping them separate as the government was hoping,. It focuses the debate on what happens afterwards. That's probably why the government is hoping for a reprieve from the Supreme Court.

    Who the heck is in charge of law for the government, they seem to be making a proper pig's ear of stuff.
    My other half was utterly convinced the Gov't was going to lose (She knows her constitutional law) - I'll suggest she starts charging the Gov't for her advice.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    Re surprising discovering you know a serious criminal....

    I know someone who was in the same class at school as a certain Harold Shipman, who he described as totally unremarkable in every way.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,128
    Alanbrooke said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/794594040419381248

    He's only playing follow the leader. The Lib Dems really are morphing into the anti-Ukip, a one-trick pony protest movement dedicated to stopping Brexit (or, failing that, applying to rejoin the EU as swiftly as possible.)

    If you're waiting for the revival of the yellows as a significant force in the Commons, I think you may well be waiting for a very long time.

    can we have a second vote on uni fees ?
    Labour's leader in the House of Lords dismissed the Lib Dems as the party of 8 MP's and that labour will not support a second referendum in the HOL
    Cleggy's on a suicide mission
    And Farron
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Clearly clegg fancies some more of those big fat BBC presenting cheques.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What a charmer....

    http://order-order.com/2016/11/04/sadiqs-night-czars-foul-mouthed-tory-scum-tweets/

    The BBC left that bit out of their puff piece, regarding her suitability for the position.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-37872501
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    on those who think LDs will get nowhere supporting EU membership, can I remind you that polls put LDs nationally on around 8% and 48% voted to remain. And no-one else appears to be fishing in those waters, in England at least.

    And as for other events this week, well, 2016 continues to be a funny old year.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,193
    FF43 said:

    This PDF gives a short and clear summary of yesterday's Article 50 judgment. The essential point of law is that parliament has sovereignty that can't be overridden by the executive except where particular powers are reserved. Making and breaking treaties is a reserved power but removal of citizen rights isn't. Some of those rights come from the EU, so triggering Article 50 will automatically remove them.

    If I understand this summary correctly, it puts the government in a worse position than it would have been if it had put Article 50 in front of parliament in the first place. That's because it merges the end result with the initial procedural step, rather than keeping them separate as the government was hoping,. It focuses the debate on what happens afterwards. That's probably why the government is hoping for a reprieve from the Supreme Court.

    Carl Gardner has an alternative take... "If in 1972 Parliament really did end the government’s power by prerogative to (as the court thinks) change UK law by doing anything that alters EU law, then surely every change to EU treaties agreed by Prime Ministers have been unlawful. Why, if this judgment stands, was it lawful for Mrs Thatcher to agree to the Single European Act? Why was it lawful for Mr Blair to sign up at Amsterdam to the Social Chapter?"

    https://www.headoflegal.com/2016/11/04/why-the-high-court-got-the-law-wrong-about-brexit/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    Alanbrooke said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/794594040419381248

    He's only playing follow the leader. The Lib Dems really are morphing into the anti-Ukip, a one-trick pony protest movement dedicated to stopping Brexit (or, failing that, applying to rejoin the EU as swiftly as possible.)

    If you're waiting for the revival of the yellows as a significant force in the Commons, I think you may well be waiting for a very long time.

    can we have a second vote on uni fees ?
    Labour's leader in the House of Lords dismissed the Lib Dems as the party of 8 MP's and that labour will not support a second referendum in the HOL
    Cleggy's on a suicide mission
    Indeed, his attempt to force May to keep full membership of the single market regardless with potentially no controls on free movement is a non-starter as far as the PM is concerned and would inevitably produce a general election
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Gadfly, very interesting take on things, cheers for posting that.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Gadfly said:

    Carl Gardner has an alternative take... "If in 1972 Parliament really did end the government’s power by prerogative to (as the court thinks) change UK law by doing anything that alters EU law, then surely every change to EU treaties agreed by Prime Ministers have been unlawful. Why, if this judgment stands, was it lawful for Mrs Thatcher to agree to the Single European Act? Why was it lawful for Mr Blair to sign up at Amsterdam to the Social Chapter?"

    That's a very good question.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    SimonStClare said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What a charmer....

    http://order-order.com/2016/11/04/sadiqs-night-czars-foul-mouthed-tory-scum-tweets/

    The BBC left that bit out on her suitability for the position.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-37872501
    FFS another BBC report crow barring Fabic nightclub into a story...they are totally obsessed by the fact it got closed down for repeated serious issues with drugs. I can only presume it was the favourite venue for bbc employees.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What's the earliest date the Sleaford by-election could be held?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/794594040419381248

    He's only playing follow the leader. The Lib Dems really are morphing into the anti-Ukip, a one-trick pony protest movement dedicated to stopping Brexit (or, failing that, applying to rejoin the EU as swiftly as possible.)

    If you're waiting for the revival of the yellows as a significant force in the Commons, I think you may well be waiting for a very long time.

    Playing follow the leader? UKIP waited a long time and then won.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gadfly said:

    Carl Gardner has an alternative take... "If in 1972 Parliament really did end the government’s power by prerogative to (as the court thinks) change UK law by doing anything that alters EU law, then surely every change to EU treaties agreed by Prime Ministers have been unlawful. Why, if this judgment stands, was it lawful for Mrs Thatcher to agree to the Single European Act? Why was it lawful for Mr Blair to sign up at Amsterdam to the Social Chapter?"

    That's a very good question.
    Brexiteers rejoice as we were never actually part of the EU in the first place!
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Gadfly said:

    FF43 said:

    This PDF gives a short and clear summary of yesterday's Article 50 judgment. The essential point of law is that parliament has sovereignty that can't be overridden by the executive except where particular powers are reserved. Making and breaking treaties is a reserved power but removal of citizen rights isn't. Some of those rights come from the EU, so triggering Article 50 will automatically remove them.

    If I understand this summary correctly, it puts the government in a worse position than it would have been if it had put Article 50 in front of parliament in the first place. That's because it merges the end result with the initial procedural step, rather than keeping them separate as the government was hoping,. It focuses the debate on what happens afterwards. That's probably why the government is hoping for a reprieve from the Supreme Court.

    Carl Gardner has an alternative take... "If in 1972 Parliament really did end the government’s power by prerogative to (as the court thinks) change UK law by doing anything that alters EU law, then surely every change to EU treaties agreed by Prime Ministers have been unlawful. Why, if this judgment stands, was it lawful for Mrs Thatcher to agree to the Single European Act? Why was it lawful for Mr Blair to sign up at Amsterdam to the Social Chapter?"

    https://www.headoflegal.com/2016/11/04/why-the-high-court-got-the-law-wrong-about-brexit/
    did any of those treaties take rights away from UK citizens?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    RobD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gadfly said:

    Carl Gardner has an alternative take... "If in 1972 Parliament really did end the government’s power by prerogative to (as the court thinks) change UK law by doing anything that alters EU law, then surely every change to EU treaties agreed by Prime Ministers have been unlawful. Why, if this judgment stands, was it lawful for Mrs Thatcher to agree to the Single European Act? Why was it lawful for Mr Blair to sign up at Amsterdam to the Social Chapter?"

    That's a very good question.
    Brexiteers rejoice as we were never actually part of the EU in the first place!
    More than that, it would mean that the EU doesn't exist.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/794599990282874881

    Ooooh... CETA: still not a done deal?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm nucking fackered, so can anyone spot any value in this market?

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2718290

    Jill Stein 0-1% at 4/1 looks tremendous value to me.
    That's a great spot :)

    http://www.jill2016.com/ballot_access

    Not even on the ballot everywhere (And where she is write in, you can forget her getting more than about a thousand votes)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    Nigel Farage - Trump is not perfect but he is the agent of change we need

    'He recognises that confronting Russian President Vladimir Putin may not be that bright and says he will talk to anyone. Indeed, he went to Mexico and met the premier there. Oh, and I nearly forgot, he actually likes the United Kingdom, not a charge that could be levelled at Obama or Clinton. '
    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nigel-farage-donald-trump-is-not-perfect-but-he-is-the-agent-of-change-that-we-need-a3387151.html

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    RobD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gadfly said:

    Carl Gardner has an alternative take... "If in 1972 Parliament really did end the government’s power by prerogative to (as the court thinks) change UK law by doing anything that alters EU law, then surely every change to EU treaties agreed by Prime Ministers have been unlawful. Why, if this judgment stands, was it lawful for Mrs Thatcher to agree to the Single European Act? Why was it lawful for Mr Blair to sign up at Amsterdam to the Social Chapter?"

    That's a very good question.
    Brexiteers rejoice as we were never actually part of the EU in the first place!
    More than that, it would mean that the EU doesn't exist.
    :o So the learn'd justices were not Europhiles after all
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    Russian MP Vitaly Milonov "I officially declare that Clinton is a cursed witch"
    https://lockerdome.com/6301731373984833/9232912470165780
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm nucking fackered, so can anyone spot any value in this market?

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2718290

    Jill Stein 0-1% at 4/1 looks tremendous value to me.
    That's a great spot :)

    http://www.jill2016.com/ballot_access

    Not even on the ballot everywhere (And where she is write in, you can forget her getting more than about a thousand votes)
    My bet on green lost deposits in 2015 is the best value loser I have ever made. Willing to do it again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    RobD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gadfly said:

    Carl Gardner has an alternative take... "If in 1972 Parliament really did end the government’s power by prerogative to (as the court thinks) change UK law by doing anything that alters EU law, then surely every change to EU treaties agreed by Prime Ministers have been unlawful. Why, if this judgment stands, was it lawful for Mrs Thatcher to agree to the Single European Act? Why was it lawful for Mr Blair to sign up at Amsterdam to the Social Chapter?"

    That's a very good question.
    Brexiteers rejoice as we were never actually part of the EU in the first place!
    More than that, it would mean that the EU doesn't exist.
    William Hague claimed that he'd looked through ALL the legal stuff after Brown signed the Lisbon Treaty, maybe he's not at good at law as he thinks he is !
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    RobD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gadfly said:

    Carl Gardner has an alternative take... "If in 1972 Parliament really did end the government’s power by prerogative to (as the court thinks) change UK law by doing anything that alters EU law, then surely every change to EU treaties agreed by Prime Ministers have been unlawful. Why, if this judgment stands, was it lawful for Mrs Thatcher to agree to the Single European Act? Why was it lawful for Mr Blair to sign up at Amsterdam to the Social Chapter?"

    That's a very good question.
    Brexiteers rejoice as we were never actually part of the EU in the first place!
    A Jagger Brexit.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    RobD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    RobD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gadfly said:

    Carl Gardner has an alternative take... "If in 1972 Parliament really did end the government’s power by prerogative to (as the court thinks) change UK law by doing anything that alters EU law, then surely every change to EU treaties agreed by Prime Ministers have been unlawful. Why, if this judgment stands, was it lawful for Mrs Thatcher to agree to the Single European Act? Why was it lawful for Mr Blair to sign up at Amsterdam to the Social Chapter?"

    That's a very good question.
    Brexiteers rejoice as we were never actually part of the EU in the first place!
    More than that, it would mean that the EU doesn't exist.
    :o So the learn'd justices were not Europhiles after all

    Meet the Law. The law of unintended consequences...

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,709
    edited November 2016
    Ex-Australian PM John Howard says he would have voted to leave the EU had he been British and urges Britain to make the most of it
    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/exaustralian-prime-minister-john-howard-on-why-we-should-make-the-most-of-brexit-a3387201.html
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MrsB said:

    on those who think LDs will get nowhere supporting EU membership, can I remind you that polls put LDs nationally on around 8% and 48% voted to remain. And no-one else appears to be fishing in those waters, in England at least.

    And Leave polled 52%, but that doesn't indicate the theoretical extent of backing for Ukip.

    I would contend that militancy about the EU vote, one way or the other, is not a characteristic of the majority of the electorate - and that, insofar as it is, there are many more people who loathe the EU than love it. If Ukip bumps around the low to mid teens in the polls, then a position of 8% for the Lib Dems doesn't look so very far from what one might expect if they really are going to major as the anti-Ukip going forward.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    https://twitter.com/Berlaymonster/status/794585702889586688
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    HYUFD said:

    Ex-Australian PM John Howard says he would have voted to leave the EU had he been British and urges Britain to make the most of it

    No doubt he thinks we should take the opportunity to replace VAT with GST.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/794594040419381248

    He's only playing follow the leader. The Lib Dems really are morphing into the anti-Ukip, a one-trick pony protest movement dedicated to stopping Brexit (or, failing that, applying to rejoin the EU as swiftly as possible.)

    If you're waiting for the revival of the yellows as a significant force in the Commons, I think you may well be waiting for a very long time.

    can we have a second vote on uni fees ?
    Labour's leader in the House of Lords dismissed the Lib Dems as the party of 8 MP's and that labour will not support a second referendum in the HOL
    Well, we shall soon see. The Labour leadership doesn't always display a secure grip on its Parliamentarians...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,406
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    RobD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Gadfly said:

    Carl Gardner has an alternative take... "If in 1972 Parliament really did end the government’s power by prerogative to (as the court thinks) change UK law by doing anything that alters EU law, then surely every change to EU treaties agreed by Prime Ministers have been unlawful. Why, if this judgment stands, was it lawful for Mrs Thatcher to agree to the Single European Act? Why was it lawful for Mr Blair to sign up at Amsterdam to the Social Chapter?"

    That's a very good question.
    Brexiteers rejoice as we were never actually part of the EU in the first place!
    More than that, it would mean that the EU doesn't exist.
    I'm sure there was a Parliamentary vote on The Single European Act.

    Calm down everybody, the EU exists.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,836
    HYUFD said:

    Ex-Australian PM John Howard says he would have voted to leave the EU had he been British and urges Britain to make the most of it
    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/exaustralian-prime-minister-john-howard-on-why-we-should-make-the-most-of-brexit-a3387201.html

    Well we can hardly do otherwise than make the most of it now, short of some major event changing minds.

    On this Phillips business, I've never heard of the man, but given there seem to be plenty of MPs and party members so at odds with their parties and their direction that it seems silly how tribally supportive they remain (even if only refusing to back anyone else even if objectively they seem to suit them more), it's almost refreshign to see someone just be clear, the label they were elected under no longer fits them.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    MrsB said:

    Gadfly said:

    FF43 said:

    This PDF gives a short and clear summary of yesterday's Article 50 judgment. The essential point of law is that parliament has sovereignty that can't be overridden by the executive except where particular powers are reserved. Making and breaking treaties is a reserved power but removal of citizen rights isn't. Some of those rights come from the EU, so triggering Article 50 will automatically remove them.

    If I understand this summary correctly, it puts the government in a worse position than it would have been if it had put Article 50 in front of parliament in the first place. That's because it merges the end result with the initial procedural step, rather than keeping them separate as the government was hoping,. It focuses the debate on what happens afterwards. That's probably why the government is hoping for a reprieve from the Supreme Court.

    Carl Gardner has an alternative take... "If in 1972 Parliament really did end the government’s power by prerogative to (as the court thinks) change UK law by doing anything that alters EU law, then surely every change to EU treaties agreed by Prime Ministers have been unlawful. Why, if this judgment stands, was it lawful for Mrs Thatcher to agree to the Single European Act? Why was it lawful for Mr Blair to sign up at Amsterdam to the Social Chapter?"

    https://www.headoflegal.com/2016/11/04/why-the-high-court-got-the-law-wrong-about-brexit/
    did any of those treaties take rights away from UK citizens?
    yes, I now have to do what Angela Merkel thinks is good for me
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited November 2016
    MarkHopkins said:

    https://twitter.com/Berlaymonster/status/794585702889586688

    I reckon the fur colour of one in the middle has been darkened ;-)
This discussion has been closed.