politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf’s latest and a look at the today’s main polling news
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf’s latest and a look at the today’s main polling news
Chart from @YouGov showing which groups in society Tories are seen as being close to
Big challenges there
See pic.twitter.com/ooPlgBzdbK
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Incidentally, if you want to get rid of Ad's (Mike probably won't think much to me posting this, because no doubt the ad's are paying for PB - Though you can disable it for some sites such as PB, if you like supporting the website, then you can enable it for other website, etc...)
Download this;
https://adblockplus.org/en/firefox
That way you can visit whatever website's you want without Google following your every movement through Cookie's served by their ad's.
You will also find page down load times become much quicker because your not waiting for ad's to appear.
It's also much safter to have something like this if you visit a lot of, er, "dodgy" website's, because it's usually through ad's on dodgy website's that you pick up malware, trojens and other nasty viruses
I installed this for my mother when she got a lap-top last year and she was struggling to navigate her way around web pages - With the ad's gone you get far more "white space" which is good for anybody not computer savvy.
Anyway, I was surprised how much quicker pages downloaded with the ad's gone, so I installed it on my own computer and have never looked back.
And I'm already sober...
Игнорировать Роджером. Он старый дурак.
Но Тим вернется домой. Хорошая вещь.
Bruges Group @BrugesGroup
@Nigel_Farage "Bill Cash u may well have voted against the Maarstricht treaty 47 times but you voted for it when you voted 4 JM confidence "
As political traps go this is quite a goody, but more importantly it is of course absolutely what needs to be done. Once we get through the long slog of actually getting rid of the huge deficit, we're going to need to start getting the absolute level of debt down as well (the alternative strategy, of letting it inflate away, is I think not practical given the peak we'll be starting from, which is unprecedented in peacetime).
Fair enough you advising how to avoid having ads on PB.
The site has just gone through a major overhaul and this costs. I will be putting up the donate button this evening. It is expensive to keep PB going but PBers have always been generous in the past whenever an appeal has been made.
"The gap between the rich and the poor is at the lowest level since 1986, despite surging demand for emergency supplies from foodbanks.
The fall in income inequality has been driven by a fall in earnings of higher income households rather than an increase in the prosperity of the less well off.
Overall, disposable incomes have fallen by an average £1,200 since 2007/08 in real terms, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). But the richest fifth of households have seen income fall by £4,200 in real terms, whereas the poorest fifth have actually seen their incomes rise by an average £700.
Before taxes and benefits, the richest fifth of households had an average income of £78,300 in 2011/12 - 14 times the £5,400 average income of the poorest fifth. lowest
http://news.sky.com/story/1147910/thames-duck-boat-fire-30-pulled-from-river
I'm not so sure - UKIP are already off their polling highs of earlier in the year - to assume that they'll do as well in the GE as even the lates figures is debatable to put it mildly. I think there's an awful lot of wishful thinking about UKIP - from all who don't wish the Conservatives
well. I tend strongly to the view that opinion polls are highly unreliable when elections are not imminent. I also think there is too much rubbishing of the 'poll we don't like' at the moment. The reality is Labour have a lead of around 5% for what it's worth at the moment.
It`s kicking off at Tory conference.
You really don't know that, Grandiose. These are game changing times. I fully expect that if UKIP come top of the poll for the EU elections next year, then for the GE, I expect that UKIP will average around 18/21%.
Not convinced he can: UKIP's challenge is still electoral credibility.
To think Cash was AF Neil's example of who might be convinced to stand on a Tory/UKIP ticket.
The message is rammed home though that UKIP aren`t going to lie down and let the Tories walk over them as Cash implied UKIP should.
4 party politics.Can`t see how the 3 party leaders can keep Farage off the debates though quite easy to see why they want to.
Perhaps Farage was attempting to flatter him into his camp..!
Biggest cheer of Tory conference so far but it's not for a Tory. @Nigel_Farage raises the roof at @BrugesGroup fringe.
Gawain Towler @GawainTowler 39m
Rolling applause for @Nigel_Farage at Bruges Group Event. Standing room only pic.twitter.com/vTv9Arq1z0
sammacrory
Farage says Tory leadership must be shocked that 'in the upper reaches of Ukip we have working class people'. Huge round of applause #cpc13
I mainly use the blocker software for "big" websites where I find the ad's make my PC run very slowly (Digital Spy can be a nightmare and Entertainment Weekly website once tried to install a virus on my computer. The Guardian website can also be a nightmare for page download times as well, in my experiance)
It's nice to be able to support some websites (the one's that earn your trust like PB) and block the ad's on other websites that don't deserve your trust, IMO.
That said, we may be the idiots rather than Farage. There may be method in the madness. (And there might not.)
Must stay away from Daily Mail web before I visit PB.
I don;t support Farage but I'm very glad he said this. I've posted a number of times there should be far more people from ordinary backgrounds in the upper reaches of the tory party. Far more.
Perhaps this is the problem: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_qHP7VaZE
Even going into an election the campaign from Cameron to UKIP people will all be "you want out of the EU, I'm the only one who can give you a vote", "Vote UKIP, get EU Ed". If Ed can make a go of the whole Blue Labour idea and promises an EU vote then Dave's job becomes very tough, but as the only party with a realistic shot at majority government offering an EU referendum picking up UKIP voters will be a very easy task indeed...
1/2
The whole Tory pitch to UKIP will be Bill Cash and other anti EUers out there telling the nation that a Tory vote is the only way to get a referendum, that message will hit home for a lot of UKIPers. Again, with Lynton Crosby in the tent (his importance is underlined by Labour's desperation to turn him into a story and force him out of the Tory camp) the Tory message will be very honed and they will all stay on point. With the Boy off campaign tactics the Tories have a better chance this time than in 2010 despite all of the same in built biases in the electoral system and a probable higher UKIP vote.
Also, I think there are two sides to UKIP, the first and more traditional UKIP voter/supporter is anti-EU, pro-free market, not to worried about immigration and these people have generally come over from the Conservatives (like Sean Fear and Richard Tyndall), and these are the most likely to hold their noses and vote Conservative. The other side is the anti-Immigration protectionist side most of whom are relatively recent additions to the UKIP fold, and they come from Labour or DNV, which is of little concern for the Tories and I don't think there needs to be a strategy from the blues to win those voters over, they won't vote Tory even if Farrage became the leader tomorrow.
The other issue UKIP will have is that closer to the election UKIP will have to spell out exactly what they stand for, and right now it's fine to be all things to all people (as UKIP are) and I don't see how one squares an anti-immigration message with the pro-free market circle. Once Farrage starts talking up his free market stuff and importing cheap labour from the Commonwealth (Indians, South Africans, Kenyans etc...) it all starts to fall apart. I don't see how a party can be both anti-immigration, pro-free market and more recently protectionist at the same time and draw supporters from all of those camps. It doesn't make very much sense and the current UKIP surge is built on shaky foundations which, closer to the GE, will begin to be problematic. Especially with the blues going into the election with a manifesto pledge of an EU referendum.
In England, the local authorities in which higher proportions of people simply ticked English as their national identity tend to be on the coasts, particularly on the eastern side of the country.
East Anglia and the Fens, parts of the Midlands and up the north-east coast show some of the highest figures for English identity.
The place that tops the table for English identity is Castle Point - the local authority that includes Canvey Island on the Thames estuary. Home to an older and predominantly white, working-class population, eight out of 10 people here ticked the English box in the census.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24302914
Farage is perhaps making the point that all tories are, in the end, tories. Yes they rebel, as do members of all parties, but when push comes to shove they can be counted on.
In that parallel universe, there would be a very good chance, perhaps as high as 40%, that Brtiain would be out of the EU within a few years.
In this universe, it's maybe 10% at most.
I don't think the Tories would be well advised to spend a lot of the 2015 referendum getting Bill Cash and co to pitch to UKIP supporters. If elections really are won from the centre, that is a sure fire way to lose one. The Tories would be better off ignoring UKIP. The problem is that for many Tories UKIP is what they want their party to be.
UKIP is about the fact the Conservatives have - in the view of a number of people - ceased being a party for the whole country, and have become a front for the interests of a small cadre of rich business people and "banksters@
UKIP is about the fact that there is no-one trumpeting social conservatism, and the rights of the silent majority
UKIP is about the fact that the three main political parties appear very much cut from the same cloth
UKIP is an insurgency - and sometimes insurgencies are successful, and sometimes they are not. There is two-thirds of the modern Conservative Party (and its voters) who would happily assimilate with UKIP. Unfortunately, the remaining third (which includes all the major donors) might seek to find another place for their votes and for their donations.
It's easy to see why that last one appears.
As I said previously, UKIP also have to lay out their policies, they can't be all things to all people when it comes to the GE. How can you be anti-immigration, pro-free trade and protectionist all at the same time?
Where she could find common cause with Cameron is scrapping (or restricting) the CAP, and in getting rid of the ridiculous working time directives. But her view is not that Europe - per se - is the problem, but that Europe is insufficiently capitalistic.
Perhaps when the next economic meltdown hits we'll be able to weather the storm like Australia and Canada did in 2008?
If it become's an "accepted" idea for the UK to run surpluses it will also force subsequant Labour governments to act sensibly (hopefully)
The question is whether the populace really cares about this. Maybe they don't.
Australia and Canada were (and remain) massive exporters of raw materials to China and Asia. It was not brilliant macroeconomic positioning, but good fortune to have economies levered to the export of coal, oil, etc. to the growing economies of the Far East.
Very impressive speech by Teresa May.4-1 fav.for next Tory leader looks good value for me and also Michael Crick,who is a journo who reaches the parts other journos cannot reach,reports not too much love and peace at view on the Tory fringe as Farage strolls in after his lunch-time pint.
I cannot understand why the Tories are not banging on about Europe more but it's early days yet.Cameron is not trusted to deliver and it is their collective obsession,a sort of collective OCD.
see populist politics - neutral nato EU-loving sterling-using monarchist-republican SNP, the bill freezing ha ha no blackouts and everyone will invest billions Ed's Labour etc.
you can't fool all of the people all of the time but some times you can fool enough of them to get elected.
The difference is that we had Gordon Brown, whereas Australia and Canada didn't.
When Osborne puts Labour and Lib's on the spot about the Surplus idea it will be fun to see whether he use's the oft-quoted Keyne's, as running surpluses in the good times to use for stimulus in the bad times is actually what true Keynesian economics is all about.
Ken Clarke, Minister Without Portfolio and staunchly pro-European Tory, has compared David Cameron's standing in America to that of a "statesman from Arkansas", reports Peter Dominiczak....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10342872/Conservative-Party-Conference-2013-day-two-live.html
next door in Austria the right got about 60% of the vote yet the socialist will end up in government to keep the Brussels show on the road. How long do you think voters will keep putting up with that ?
To get the debt down in absolute £££s, he would need to run a surplus greater than interests payments.
Anyhow, I pledge to work towards having a body like the guy on the front cover of Men's Health, but not until 2020 mind.
That's a completely different level of importance to the Australian economy than financial services was (or is) to the UK.
Outside, now!
For starters, there is the possibility that EdM matches the referendum policy.
They also have to persuade those UKIP voters who might be inclined to vote tory (and that is the only sub-set of UKIP supporters who might to suseptible to their only current attack line) that Cameron is the PM to lead us out of the EU.
There are very few people, within either the tory party or UKIP, who believe that.
I wondered how well those places where "English" is the preferred definition correlate with UKIP successes in the recent County elections!
My former stamping ground of Castle Point elected two Kippers, and, when we moved, lost two people who describe themselves as British!
Most of those driven out of UKIP have been the more active people who (quite rightly) tried to actually help lead or at least drive UKIP along either at a local or national level. It is they who have fallen foul of Farage's leadership style. For the general rank and file without an immediate interest in taking an active role in the party, Farage has some semi-deity status. Hence the reason he walked the last leadership election.
However, as a fellow member of the Bruges group I do despair of Eurosceptics who think that the return of a Tory government will mean anything other than disaster for the BOO movement.
Now, I'm not going to show my ignorance of Austrian politics, however, we could have a situation with the rise of UKIP where more than 50% of the population vote for Eurosceptic parties (Con + UKIP), but because of the vagaries of the election system the pro-EU Labour party could end up in power. This isn't because of Brussels, but because of the electoral system. Is this true of Austria too?
who thought his wife was a...
She (mis)quoted St. Francis of Assisi.
He is models himself on St. Augustine of Hippo: "God grant me chastity and continence, but not yet."
However, in absolute terms you are right. He would need to run a surplus of over £45bn to make a dent in Britain's national debt. It seems unlikely that this will be achieved, at least in my lifetime.