politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big hope for Trump now is that there will be a polling fai

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:

Alanbrooke said:

horse shit

accurately describes this post

"having spent 10 months telling us Nissan will definitely close "

You made it up

sorry was it twelve ?

Come on Brookey, don't be ornery, admit it, it is thanks to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy that has made us so resilient to the Brexit shocks and why Nissan don't want to leave.

Not even Gordon Brown could screw up Osborne's golden legacy.

You miss him dont you ?

He'll be back, the question is when not if.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:

Alanbrooke said:

horse shit

accurately describes this post

"having spent 10 months telling us Nissan will definitely close "

You made it up

sorry was it twelve ?

Come on Brookey, don't be ornery, admit it, it is thanks to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy that has made us so resilient to the Brexit shocks and why Nissan don't want to leave.

Not even Gordon Brown could screw up Osborne's golden legacy.

You miss him dont you ?

He'll be back, the question is when not if.

Resists urge to make reference to [certain] illnesses you just can't quite get rid of..

Mr Borough,

"Presumably Mr 13 didn't speak to any EU migrants whilst in Boston."

Well I meet a few if I'm there on Sundays. We now have five Catholic masses instead of the usual one. Three in Polish, one in Lithuanian and one in English - although last time we had a Polish baptism at the English mass.

They're white, catholic and like a drink - my ideal people (even if the drink driving stats have shot up).

And hard working. I still remember one Easter about 50 years ago hoeing cabbages on a field that stretched nearly to Norway with a wind straight from Siberia freezing my wotsits off (I was picked up by a gang van in the school holidays). Where were they then?

GeoffM said:

Anorak said:

GeoffM said:

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

GIN1138 said:

Loads of good news this morning!

@BBCPhilipSim: David Mundell being pressed on free movement post-Brexit; he says there is "no intention to stop people coming, completely, from the EU"

Economy booming. Manufacturing assured. Free movement of people

It's almost like we are members of the EU...

Gove on Sky says there should be principle that all UK immigrants are subject to the same rules regardless of the country they are from.

Only a racist could disagree with that.

Don't be silly. I disagree with that, and I'm pretty sure I'm not a racist.

I think reciprocal free-movement arrangements with countries that share our values and are economically similar are a wonderful idea. If not for me so much, then certainly for the sake of my children.

I am never keen on widespread use of the phrase "our values". That's usually code for your values that you think I should share.

Aye...

“We should only admit into this country those that share our values and respect our people. We will be tough, and we will be even extreme”

619 said:

weejonnie said:

619 said:

PlatoSaid said:

GeoffM said:

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

GIN1138 said:

Loads of good news this morning!

@BBCPhilipSim: David Mundell being pressed on free movement post-Brexit; he says there is "no intention to stop people coming, completely, from the EU"

Economy booming. Manufacturing assured. Free movement of people

It's almost like we are members of the EU...

Gove on Sky says there should be principle that all UK immigrants are subject to the same rules regardless of the country they are from.

Only a racist could disagree with that.

I do wonder if its yet dawned on Team Hillary that since her 'deplorables' speech - she's totally destroyed the main shame attack lines. She nuked a whole bunch of -isms in a few minutes, whilst thinking how clever she was.

And the Right are now using the Left's tactics at rallies - something we're entirely unused to. Up to now, the Right were mostly turn-the-other-cheek sorts who didn't play that game. Now the gloves are off and Bill Is A Rapist hecklers turn up to DNC events.

I don't like it from either side - but it must be a shock for Lefties to get a taste of their own medicine for once.

I dunno, Trump being a racist tax cheat who boasts about grabbing women by the pussy without their permission is definitely a message which broke through.

Well a racist tax cheat who boasts about grabbing women might have policies that would help the 300 million Americans much better than a sick, demented, woman who spent her time at the Whitehouse in clamping down on Bill Clinton's sexual conquests and doesn't know of the meaning of the word classified.

Well, he didn't come across in any of the debates as having well thought out policies like that.

He has certainly mentioned them enough elsewhere - and the debates tended to degenerate into attacking trump as a racist tax cheat who boasts about grabbing women.

Today we learn:

GDP beats expectations at .5%

Nissan confirm the future of their Sunderland plant and upgrade it to a Global factory

Sweden states that a compromise must be reached with the UK, their fifth largest market, as export sales to UK collapse due to the exchange rate.

Brussels carpet manufacturers express grave concern over their UK export market as they too suffer collapsing UK sales.

Thousand cross the Irish border to purchase goods as they are so much cheaper

ING invests 400 new jobs in London

German car industry instructs it's government to ensure tariff free trading to UK for their 850,000 car sales to UK.

So to sum up and to quote the Prime Minister, Brexit means Brexit and we are going to make a success of it

Anorak said:

Looks like they've managed to bribe persuade the walloons.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37788882

As I told everyone two days ago on here...

rcs1000 said:

Anorak said:

Looks like they've managed to bribe persuade the walloons.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37788882

As I told everyone two days ago on here...

canucks should hold out for more :-)

the EU now needs to do deals

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:

Alanbrooke said:

horse shit

accurately describes this post

"having spent 10 months telling us Nissan will definitely close "

You made it up

sorry was it twelve ?

Come on Brookey, don't be ornery, admit it, it is thanks to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy that has made us so resilient to the Brexit shocks and why Nissan don't want to leave.

Not even Gordon Brown could screw up Osborne's golden legacy.

You miss him dont you ?

He'll be back, the question is when not if.

Like Voldemort

He's more Severus Snape, the true hero of the story.

Nah Draco Malfoy

JackW said:

PlatoSaid said:

JackW said:

PlatoSaid said:

I honestly don't take much notice of the polling - I just glance at the internals and mostly laugh at the skewed samples - like Brexit, they're making the news not reflecting it.

You might not "take much notice of the polling" but the Trump campaign sure does, with Pence off to Utah and Omaha and Donald pulling resources from Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Colorado.

And there is a yawning gap between nitpicking every poll and watching where you've a problem.

Did you watch the Pence video I posted on FPT - I thought Pence was very good. He's much more suited to that demographic - Trump is too brash even without sex story baggage.

I love Utah and SLC.

I agree. Pence would have been a considerable challenge for Clinton. Unfortunately he has found himself defending Trump in the most difficult of circumstances.

Pence has placed himself in a solid position for 2020.

For which party tho? If the results are bad enough the GOP might split and a new party could emerge, the demographics aren't getting any better for them either.

felix said:

Voted remain and I don't think we're out of the woods yet by any means but the news about Nissan is great. I buy a new one every 2/3 years and it comes all the way from my town of birth in Sunderland to my home and life here in Almeria, Spain. Long may it continue.

You'll get a bargain price thanks to Brexit if you hurry. Encourage your expat pals to buy makem. Nice to see you coming round.

PlatoSaid said:

Dromedary said:

@PlatoSaid - that quote attributed to Tim Kaine is FAKE.

I knew the ~KGB had a big share in Wikileaks, but now you've got me wondering how big the Jesuits' share is!

That isn't what I was referring to.

It was this http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/news/2016/10/14/catholic-bishops-and-campaigners-condemn-ugly-and-anti-catholic-emails-between-clinton-team/

Okay (although it was in the quote chain).

Sandy Newman's statement

"There needs to be a Catholic Spring, in which Catholics themselves demand the end of a middle-ages dictatorship and the beginning of a little democracy and respect for gender equality in the Catholic church"

will be music to the Jesuits' ears, as I think Archbishop Chaput knows. Damian Thompson at the Spectator is angry.

I'll have to read some more about Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good and Catholics United, called "Podesta's creations". But I suspect that rather than the Democrats "infiltrating" the Catholic church, what has happened is that the Jesuits have infiltrated the Democratic party.

I hope Clinton gets her food thoroughly checked.

619 said:

weejonnie said:

619 said:

weejonnie said:

619 said:

PlatoSaid said:

GeoffM said:

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

GIN1138 said:

Loads of good news this morning!

@BBCPhilipSim: David Mundell being pressed on free movement post-Brexit; he says there is "no intention to stop people coming, completely, from the EU"

Economy booming. Manufacturing assured. Free movement of people

It's almost like we are members of the EU...

Gove on Sky says there should be principle that all UK immigrants are subject to the same rules regardless of the country they are from.

Only a racist could disagree with that.

I do wonder if its yet dawned on Team Hillary that since her 'deplorables' speech - she's totally destroyed the main shame attack lines. She nuked a whole bunch of -isms in a few minutes, whilst thinking how clever she was.

snip

I don't like it from either side - but it must be a shock for Lefties to get a taste of their own medicine for once.

I dunno, Trump being a racist tax cheat who boasts about grabbing women by the pussy without their permission is definitely a message which broke through.

Well a racist tax cheat who boasts about grabbing women might have policies that would help the 300 million Americans much better than a sick, demented, woman who spent her time at the Whitehouse in clamping down on Bill Clinton's sexual conquests and doesn't know of the meaning of the word classified.

Well, he didn't come across in any of the debates as having well thought out policies like that.

He has certainly mentioned them enough elsewhere - and the debates tended to degenerate into attacking trump as a racist tax cheat who boasts about grabbing women.

Yeah, he did a lot to dispel the notion of being a misogynist.
So, what is he going to replace Obamacare with exactly?

Not his problem as yet - although with 20% premium hikes, increased deductables and companies withdrawing from it as fast as they can, it is clear that the Obamacare policy has been an unmitigated disaster. (As was inevitable if you know anything about insurance principles.)

I am pleased, however, that you admit that Obamacare (probably Obama's most significant contribution to the USA in 8 years, other than the record for the President who has played the most golf) is one of the many crap Democrat policies, basically buying votes of the poor with unsustainable promises.

The trouble with Democrats is that they eventually run out of other people's money.

What is the USA debt/ deficit at the moment?

Andrew Neil on BBC DP "Is Project Fear now in ruins?"

PlatoSaid said:

weejonnie said:

There was loads of policy from Trump in his Gettysburg speech - it's just all being ignored because it's so much easier to call him names. I find this bizarre on PB. We're an immensely sophisticated audience that barely seems to deviate from poll worship and tribalism.

For anyone who'd like to actually know what stuff his ground troops are talking about to their friends and neighbours

It's fair to say that the National Review has had a very dim view of Trump from the get-go. This is their take now.

"Enacting Trump’s ‘Contract with the American Voter’ would revive a nation in decline. If Donald J. Trump becomes president, he barely will have time to attend his own inaugural parade. The Republican nominee promised voters in Gettysburg, Pa., Saturday that he would stay spectacularly busy on his first day in office.

As part of his Contract with the American Voter, Trump pledged to take 18 major steps on January 20, 2017. Most of these give center-right voters excellent reasons to support Trump at the polls. Trump’s first six steps aim to “clean up the corruption and special-interest collusion in Washington, D.C.”

- A constitutional amendment to place term limits on all members of Congress
- A hiring freeze on all federal employees, save for the military and to satisfy public and health needs
- A requirement that each new federal regulation erase two old ones
- A five-year-ban on White House and congressional officials lobbying after leaving government service
- A lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying for foreign governments
- A total ban on foreign lobbyists raising cash for U.S. elections
- Also next January 20, Trump promises five steps “to restore security and the constitutional rule of law.”
- “Cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum, and order issued by President Obama.”
- Start picking a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on Trump’s list of potential Supreme Court nominees, “who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States.”
- “Cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities.”
- Start removing the 2 million+ criminal illegal aliens who walk America’s streets
- Suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where the U.S. cannot conduct extreme vetting — Trump’s proposed standard for all foreign entrants

....

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/441458/donald-trump-contract-american-voter-gettysburg-address

Nothing on what to replace Obamacare?

619 said:

His other mate, Alex Jones, talked about a Jewish mafia as well.

Would Meyer Lansky, Bugsy Siegel, Arnold Rothstein, Samuel Bronfman or Semion Mogilevich be offended?

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Scott_P said:

Alanbrooke said:

horse shit

accurately describes this post

"having spent 10 months telling us Nissan will definitely close "

You made it up

sorry was it twelve ?

Come on Brookey, don't be ornery, admit it, it is thanks to George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy that has made us so resilient to the Brexit shocks and why Nissan don't want to leave.

Not even Gordon Brown could screw up Osborne's golden legacy.

You miss him dont you ?

He'll be back, the question is when not if.

Like Voldemort

He's more Severus Snape, the true hero of the story.

Nah Draco Malfoy

More like Dobbie.....

Patience Wheatcroft, Baroness Wheatcroft seems much older than 65 when quizzed by Andrew Neil (BBC DP). She concedes that the Treasury exagerated the forecast effects.

YellowSubmarine said:

So Nissan have acted ruthlessly in their own self interest and demanded a Corporate Welfare Cheque to stay in Sunderland. Something they would have done without a Corporate Welfare Cheque if we were staying in the Single Market. As ever the sites most right wing posters will cheer the economics of Jeremy Corbyn if it involves scoring a point against the EU.

Well this economic liberal isn't cheering the market becoming less free, isn't cheering for facto state subsidy of winners the state picked, isn't cheering the opportunity costs of the state subsidy and can't the preference of big and Iconic producers being able to black mail us in a way smaller manufacturers won't be able to.

At least part of Margaret Thatcher will be turning in her grave. And now we've given our lunch money to Nissan who is next ?

You do not know the details of the deal but this is a daggar to the heart of the remoaners and will be followed by many more. Both politically and economically this is a big boost for Brexit - we are leaving and you need to move on

The Independent: EU students applying to British universities plummet by 9 per cent following Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIws9uwljA

CarlottaVance said:

I think McDonnell thinks this would be a bad thing:

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell says ministers want to turn the UK into the "Singapore of the North Atlantic"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37782041

Would need a fair bit more immigration to get the UK up to Singapore population density levels.

YellowSubmarine said:

The Independent: EU students applying to British universities plummet by 9 per cent following Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIws9uwljA

Good. Far too many of them leave unpaid debts.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So Nissan have acted ruthlessly in their own self interest and demanded a Corporate Welfare Cheque to stay in Sunderland. Something they would have done without a Corporate Welfare Cheque if we were staying in the Single Market. As ever the sites most right wing posters will cheer the economics of Jeremy Corbyn if it involves scoring a point against the EU.

Well this economic liberal isn't cheering the market becoming less free, isn't cheering for facto state subsidy of winners the state picked, isn't cheering the opportunity costs of the state subsidy and can't the preference of big and Iconic producers being able to black mail us in a way smaller manufacturers won't be able to.

At least part of Margaret Thatcher will be turning in her grave. And now we've given our lunch money to Nissan who is next ?

You do not know the details of the deal but this is a daggar to the heart of the remoaners and will be followed by many more. Both politically and economically this is a big boost for Brexit - we are leaving and you need to move on

That's a pathetic analysis from anyone. From someone claiming to be a Conservative it's cult like.

YellowSubmarine said:

The Independent: EU students applying to British universities plummet by 9 per cent following Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIws9uwljA

As regrettable as this is, buried in the news is that overall figures were up 1pc, based on good growth from ROW.

Gardenwalker said:

YellowSubmarine said:

The Independent: EU students applying to British universities plummet by 9 per cent following Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIws9uwljA

As regrettable as this is, buried in the news is that overall figures were up 1pc, based on good growth from ROW.

I sense many Leave voters may not see a large increase in non EU foreign students as unalloyed good news.

YellowSubmarine said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So Nissan have acted ruthlessly in their own self interest and demanded a Corporate Welfare Cheque to stay in Sunderland. Something they would have done without a Corporate Welfare Cheque if we were staying in the Single Market. As ever the sites most right wing posters will cheer the economics of Jeremy Corbyn if it involves scoring a point against the EU.

Well this economic liberal isn't cheering the market becoming less free, isn't cheering for facto state subsidy of winners the state picked, isn't cheering the opportunity costs of the state subsidy and can't the preference of big and Iconic producers being able to black mail us in a way smaller manufacturers won't be able to.

At least part of Margaret Thatcher will be turning in her grave. And now we've given our lunch money to Nissan who is next ?

You do not know the details of the deal but this is a daggar to the heart of the remoaners and will be followed by many more. Both politically and economically this is a big boost for Brexit - we are leaving and you need to move on

That's a pathetic analysis from anyone. From someone claiming to be a Conservative it's cult like.

It takes 5 years to design and introduce a car model. It takes about 6-12 months to work through HMG subsidy regime.

I seriously doubt this decison was all taken post 23 June. More likely it has been in the negotiation pipeline for some time, maybe even in the carefree days when the LDs were in govt.

Lovely to see all this great news. Speaks volumes that the Remoaners are upset seeing the UK prosper.

YellowSubmarine said:

Alanbrooke said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So Nissan have acted ruthlessly in their own self interest and demanded a Corporate Welfare Cheque to stay in Sunderland. Something they would have done without a Corporate Welfare Cheque if we were staying in the Single Market. As ever the sites most right wing posters will cheer the economics of Jeremy Corbyn if it involves scoring a point against the EU.

Well this economic liberal isn't cheering the market becoming less free, isn't cheering for facto state subsidy of winners the state picked, isn't cheering the opportunity costs of the state subsidy and can't the preference of big and Iconic producers being able to black mail us in a way smaller manufacturers won't be able to.

At least part of Margaret Thatcher will be turning in her grave. And now we've given our lunch money to Nissan who is next ?

Margaret Thatcher subsidised Nissan to come here back in 1984

And built a single market so that was pump priming. If we've promised to indemnify Nissan against the worst case scenario they ministers have issued a secret contingent liability. It may cost us nothng or it may cost us a fortune or something inbetween. But either way it's a contingent liability to get Nissan to do something they were going to do for free. It's not a sign of strength it's a sign of huge weakness. It's a shift of productive resources to a kind of Red 'Kipper/Blue Labourish economic Nationalism. It will end in tears. It always does.

The biggest contingent liability we have is on our banks and yet you seem quite ok with that.

Pulpstar said:

brokenwheel said:

Another poor data dump from Florida for the Dems. Rep postal gap now widening a bit but even more remarkably Dems posting really poor in-person votes; in the last two days they've only had very slim leads.

I thought the early returns looked very positive for the DEMs from FL ?

Certainly what I've read on every other analysis/report piece...

It's all relative. The Republicans were *more* ahead in 2012 than they are now.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So Nissan have acted ruthlessly in their own self interest and demanded a Corporate Welfare Cheque to stay in Sunderland. Something they would have done without a Corporate Welfare Cheque if we were staying in the Single Market. As ever the sites most right wing posters will cheer the economics of Jeremy Corbyn if it involves scoring a point against the EU.

Well this economic liberal isn't cheering the market becoming less free, isn't cheering for facto state subsidy of winners the state picked, isn't cheering the opportunity costs of the state subsidy and can't the preference of big and Iconic producers being able to black mail us in a way smaller manufacturers won't be able to.

At least part of Margaret Thatcher will be turning in her grave. And now we've given our lunch money to Nissan who is next ?

You do not know the details of the deal but this is a daggar to the heart of the remoaners and will be followed by many more. Both politically and economically this is a big boost for Brexit - we are leaving and you need to move on

That's a pathetic analysis from anyone. From someone claiming to be a Conservative it's cult like.

You are struggling to accept we are leaving. We have a PM who will make a success of it. As a member of the conservative party I believe it is high time conservative remainers got in behind the government

I was critiquing the economics of the Nissan stunt. Offer a counter critique or I won't engage with. Your mixture of " Argument from ( self appointed ) authority " and mild Ad Hominem isn't worth engaging with on it's own.

tyson said:

rcs1000 said:

GeoffM said:

rcs1000 said:

GeoffM said:

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

GIN1138 said:

Loads of good news this morning!

@BBCPhilipSim: David Mundell being pressed on free movement post-Brexit; he says there is "no intention to stop people coming, completely, from the EU"

Economy booming. Manufacturing assured. Free movement of people

It's almost like we are members of the EU...

Gove on Sky says there should be principle that all UK immigrants are subject to the same rules regardless of the country they are from.

Only a racist could disagree with that.

So we are not going to have any preferential treatment for anyone? No working holiday visas for Australians and New Zealanders?

Did Gove move on to talk about that topic later on?
I was just commenting on the "immigrants" reference.

Except for countries with truly open borders, like the UK or the US in the nineteenth century, every government discriminates - for or against - potential immigrants based on country of origin. They are all "racist" (or "country-ist", if you prefer), because it is a useful heuristic when judging whether someone should be allowed into the country.

There will be open borders in the future....it'll seem unthinkable that people were restricted where they live because of their nationality. A bit like stopping a Yorkshireman living in Lancashire...as much as I'd like that (joking).
Brexit and Trump will appear just blips on the pathway.

Sorry for being a tad antagonistic last night. The EU migrants coming here to take our benefits is a line that hits a nerve when there is just so much economic evidence to suggest the contrary.

Nevertheless, it is unhealthy to have a situation where even a few people move here to be "professionally homeless", to beg on the streets, and collect benefits.

It's funny. Everyone concentrates on borders, but borders are irrelevant to controlling illegal immigration. Switzerland voted in a referendum to join Schengen, so they have *no* control or record of people coming or going. Yet they have no pressure on low-end wages, and no problem with illegal immigration. Why?

Because (a) benefits are contributory, and (b) there is no 'informal' or illegal working in Switzerland. Solve those problems - and they are solved problems, as the Swiss have demonstrated - and you remove most of the negative effects of low-wage immigration.

Where PB.com leads the market invariably follows.

Oh wait ...... Hillary's ECV spread with Sporting is down a couple of points this morning!

Theuniondivvie said:

Gardenwalker said:

YellowSubmarine said:

The Independent: EU students applying to British universities plummet by 9 per cent following Brexit vote. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIws9uwljA

As regrettable as this is, buried in the news is that overall figures were up 1pc, based on good growth from ROW.

I sense many Leave voters may not see a large increase in non EU foreign students as unalloyed good news.

Which would be pretty stupid of them.
Overseas students effectively subsidise higher education for UK students, contribute significantly to the balance of payments, add to the intellectual talent pool, and spread British culture abroad.

Against that, there's the headline immigration figures, and....

tyson said:

There will be open borders in the future....it'll seem unthinkable that people were restricted where they live because of their nationality. A bit like stopping a Yorkshireman living in Lancashire...as much as I'd like that (joking).
Brexit and Trump will appear just blips on the pathway.

Sorry for being a tad antagonistic last night. The EU migrants coming here to take our benefits is a line that hits a nerve when there is just so much economic evidence to suggest the contrary.

You are right to call it out, it's utter garbage.

We are not being beseiged by an army of Roma homeless, whatever SeanT says.

The vast, vast majority of EU migrants are here to work. On average, they have higher education levels, higher employment rates, and lower dependence on government services (with the possible exception of maternity) than the average Brit.

We profit massively from their being here.

We can also compare and contrast with low immigration countries like Japan who are now in demographically dictated long term decline.

I have sympathy with the argument that we need democratic control over migration. And governments of both stripes have failed to truly appreciate the scale of migration since 1997 and what it represents in terms of societal change. Too much change is dizzying.

But lets not hear about migrants stealing our jobs and milking our welfare systems. It ain't true.

And I'd like to see evidence of the @rcs1000 argument that our over-generous in-work benefit systems act as a significant magnet. My own theory is that London's clear dynamism, the strength of the pound, the opportunity to live in an English speaking country, existing ethnic communities, and a perception that we are much more tolerant of foreigners in general - the "British Dream" if you like - are more important factors.

Reforming our welfare toward a contributions system would I suspect create a lot of upheaval and have very little impact.