politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Situation critical. How the NHS could affect the path of Brexi
Comments
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Ireland is not in Schengen.Anorak said:
I think you need to make an argument that doesn't apply to Ireland too. Otherwise you're like a dog chasing her tail.CarlottaVance said:
Simplistic doesn't quite cover it.scotslass said:If border controls are not necessary on the Foyle they are not necessary on the Tweed
If Scotland is to have free movement of people from the EU, but E&W isn't - how exactly is that to be policed?
glw had a better go at it.
Scotland as a new member would be in Schengen.
There are no passport controls between Schengen states.
England & Wales would have the option of either
i) Having open borders with the Schengen area or
ii) Having border controls with the Schengen area - as currently.
Good luck selling i)!0 -
Er I am fully aware of the history thanks - yet that does not justify Tweedite border guards, as you know damned well.CarlottaVance said:
Here's a clue - history- of which you appear spectacularly ignorant.Jobabob said:
Explain to me why an independent EU Ireland doesn't need border controls but an independent EU Scotland does. Here's a clue – there is no rational explanation. So maybe save your time.CarlottaVance said:
You don't think there has been a difference in recent history between Northern Ireland & Scotland and their neighbours to the south?Jobabob said:
Why is the situation in Indy Scotland any different to that in Ireland?geoffw said:
No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.malcolmg said:CarlottaVance said:New Statesman:
For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.
She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why
Anyway, work.0 -
So you propose open borders with the Schengen states?Jobabob said:
Er I am fully aware of the history thanks - yet that does not justify Tweedite border guards, as you know damned well.CarlottaVance said:
Here's a clue - history- of which you appear spectacularly ignorant.Jobabob said:
Explain to me why an independent EU Ireland doesn't need border controls but an independent EU Scotland does. Here's a clue – there is no rational explanation. So maybe save your time.CarlottaVance said:
You don't think there has been a difference in recent history between Northern Ireland & Scotland and their neighbours to the south?Jobabob said:
Why is the situation in Indy Scotland any different to that in Ireland?geoffw said:
No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.malcolmg said:CarlottaVance said:New Statesman:
For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.
She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why
Anyway, work.0 -
Do you think it beyond the wit of Brussels Man to fudge this point?CarlottaVance said:
Ireland is not in Schengen.Anorak said:
I think you need to make an argument that doesn't apply to Ireland too. Otherwise you're like a dog chasing her tail.CarlottaVance said:
Simplistic doesn't quite cover it.scotslass said:If border controls are not necessary on the Foyle they are not necessary on the Tweed
If Scotland is to have free movement of people from the EU, but E&W isn't - how exactly is that to be policed?
glw had a better go at it.
Scotland as a new member would be in Schengen.0 -
At work and don't have my spreadsheet to hand but;Chris said:
It would be interesting to see the actual figures after the second day.brokenwheel said:
Just looking at the early vote numbers for Florida after 2nd day of in-person voting. Reps have regained the lead when adding in both postal and in-person, very odd. Also the second day of in-person appears to be a tie. In every in-person voting day in the last two elections Dems led weekday voting by ~40000 votes.JackW said:Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct
Clinton 45 .. Trump 46
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll
CBS here seems to be reporting a Republican lead of 7,000 after the first day (which accounted for 300,000 of about 1,575,000 votes so far, if I understand correctly). Given the reports of a Republican lead of 1.7% in the postal ballots, that suggests the first day reduced that lead from about 21,000 to 7,000, implying a Democrat lead of about 4.5% on the first day. It would be surprising if it had become a tie after the second day:
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/gop-has-slight-edge-over-dems-in-floridas-early-voting/
First day in-person was ~109000 Rep ~133000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead.
After 2nd day cumulative is ~216000 Rep ~240000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead implying second day was a wash.
Additionally the rep postal lead has gone up from ~7000 to ~40000.
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I think there is a substantial chance the CTA will go and a similar chance Ireland will join Schengen. The Northern Ireland solution de facto is that almost all residents will end up with dual Irish and British nationality. There will also likely be am EU "border agreement" on trade that covers all of the Province.williamglenn said:
That ignores the other part of the hypothetical which is that somehow the CTA between the Republic of Ireland and the UK is maintained. If that is the case then the same solution can be used for Scotland.glw said:
Well apart from the history, an independent Scotland in the EU would likely end up a member of the Schengen Area which the Republic of Ireland is not.williamglenn said:Your argument sounds wrong-headed to me.
Centuries of peaceful coexistence in a union means border controls are essential after a divorce, but decades of violent paramilitarism means that open borders are needed?0 -
Mr. Glenn, don't forget, the Brussels bureaucracy wants to be as big a pain in the arse to the UK as possible.
Although it's entirely theoretical at this stage, of course.0 -
They should have expelled the Labour leavers and kicked their arses down to UKIP where they rightly belong.Sean_F said:
In my case, I distributed a lot of very good Labour Leave leaflets in left wing parts of Luton.SandyRentool said:
You assume that I was leafletting a Labour area. Which I wasn't.Jobabob said:
You knowingly distributed a bare face lie about funding the National Health Service to the very people who rely on it (who you purport to stick up for) to trick them into voting for your nationalist fantasy.SandyRentool said:@Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.
You should hang your head in shame.
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Surely the key point is that he was out there leafletting. That's what wins referendums - not keyboard warriorhood (especially after the event) on niche websites.Jobabob said:
You knowingly distributed a bare face lie about funding the National Health Service to the very people who rely on it (who you purport to stick up for) to trick them into voting for your nationalist fantasy.SandyRentool said:@Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.
You should hang your head in shame.0 -
They would hardly achieve this by throwing up (literal) roadblocks to Scottish independence and continuity of EU membership.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, don't forget, the Brussels bureaucracy wants to be as big a pain in the arse to the UK as possible.
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Tim Farron obviously doesn't believe in expectation management:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/7912326478927257600 -
That looks a bit off tbh, but we will see anyway when more figures start coming in.brokenwheel said:
At work and don't have my spreadsheet to hand but;Chris said:
It would be interesting to see the actual figures after the second day.brokenwheel said:
Just looking at the early vote numbers for Florida after 2nd day of in-person voting. Reps have regained the lead when adding in both postal and in-person, very odd. Also the second day of in-person appears to be a tie. In every in-person voting day in the last two elections Dems led weekday voting by ~40000 votes.JackW said:Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct
Clinton 45 .. Trump 46
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll
CBS here seems to be reporting a Republican lead of 7,000 after the first day (which accounted for 300,000 of about 1,575,000 votes so far, if I understand correctly). Given the reports of a Republican lead of 1.7% in the postal ballots, that suggests the first day reduced that lead from about 21,000 to 7,000, implying a Democrat lead of about 4.5% on the first day. It would be surprising if it had become a tie after the second day:
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/gop-has-slight-edge-over-dems-in-floridas-early-voting/
First day in-person was ~109000 Rep ~133000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead.
After 2nd day cumulative is ~216000 Rep ~240000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead implying second day was a wash.
Additionally the rep postal lead has gone up from ~7000 to ~40000.
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The CTA is maintainable precisely because Ireland is not in Schengen. If the EU requires Scotland to opt-in to all the current EU baggage for accession states then Scotland would end up in Schengen, and then it would be much harder to keep an open border between Scotland and England.williamglenn said:That ignores the other part of the hypothetical which is that somehow the CTA between the Republic of Ireland and the UK is maintained. If that is the case then the same solution can be used for Scotland.
It's possible that the EU lets Scotland have an UK style deal, but I suspect such deals are going to be a bloody hard sell given what has happened with the UK. The SNP assumption that Scotland will get to keep everything the UK currently has seems unfounded.0 -
Carlotta is clearly overjoyed that someone else has come up with a feeble justification for the original not-a-leg-to-stand-on point.williamglenn said:
Do you think it beyond the wit of Brussels Man to fudge this point?CarlottaVance said:
Ireland is not in Schengen.Anorak said:
I think you need to make an argument that doesn't apply to Ireland too. Otherwise you're like a dog chasing her tail.CarlottaVance said:
Simplistic doesn't quite cover it.scotslass said:If border controls are not necessary on the Foyle they are not necessary on the Tweed
If Scotland is to have free movement of people from the EU, but E&W isn't - how exactly is that to be policed?
glw had a better go at it.
Scotland as a new member would be in Schengen.
There's nothing to stop Scotland imposing ID checks on sea passengers, as all EU countries do on air passengers. There are several obvious (and no doubt a plethora of not-so-obvious) ways to keep the border open.0 -
Norway?Dromedary said:
That would be typical SNP dishonesty, arguing by false analogy from present to future while expecting supporters to say "Take that, you doubters!" A state that's in a single market with the EU cannot be in one with a state outside the EU that isn't.Jobabob said:
Quite right. Anytime anyone mentions this ludicrous idea of patrol boats on the Tweed, Nicola simply has to mention the lack of patrol boats on the Foyle.scotslass said:The problem is many people are asking what is the point of the New Statesman!
Their campaign against Corbyn has collapsed, their uber unionism gives them a similar profile to the Daily Telegraph in Scotland and their understanding of the constitutional question is roughly the same as the Prime Minister's advisers.
If BREXIT logic is that countries do not discriminate against other countries with whom they have a trade surplus then why does that not apply to Scotland which is England's fourth largest marketplace.
If the Government claims that they can have an soft border between two parts of Ireland then why would Scots believe they would erect a hard border between England and Scotland.0 -
How much is a five storey house in leafy Richmond?AlastairMeeks said:Tim Farron obviously doesn't believe in expectation management:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/7912326478927257600 -
I hope Farron said that in the voice of the Hulk.AlastairMeeks said:Tim Farron obviously doesn't believe in expectation management:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/791232647892725760
"Farron Smash Zac. Aaaaaaargh."0 -
hmm.
Is labour standing in Richmond park more beneficial to Zac or the LD's?
I'm not sure the Witney result is particularly instructive.
Id go with slightly beneficial to Zac, but not to any significant extent.0 -
An alternative view:619 said:
That looks a bit off tbh, but we will see anyway when more figures start coming in.brokenwheel said:
At work and don't have my spreadsheet to hand but;Chris said:
It would be interesting to see the actual figures after the second day.brokenwheel said:
Just looking at the early vote numbers for Florida after 2nd day of in-person voting. Reps have regained the lead when adding in both postal and in-person, very odd. Also the second day of in-person appears to be a tie. In every in-person voting day in the last two elections Dems led weekday voting by ~40000 votes.JackW said:Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct
Clinton 45 .. Trump 46
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll
CBS here seems to be reporting a Republican lead of 7,000 after the first day (which accounted for 300,000 of about 1,575,000 votes so far, if I understand correctly). Given the reports of a Republican lead of 1.7% in the postal ballots, that suggests the first day reduced that lead from about 21,000 to 7,000, implying a Democrat lead of about 4.5% on the first day. It would be surprising if it had become a tie after the second day:
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/gop-has-slight-edge-over-dems-in-floridas-early-voting/
First day in-person was ~109000 Rep ~133000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead.
After 2nd day cumulative is ~216000 Rep ~240000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead implying second day was a wash.
Additionally the rep postal lead has gone up from ~7000 to ~40000.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/25/1586571/-Daily-Kos-Elections-early-voting-roundup-Democrats-erase-GOP-advantage-in-Florida0 -
I am as far from being a Kipper as you are. I want to live in an independent Republic where a democratically elected socialist government can enact socialist policies.tyson said:
They should have expelled the Labour leavers and kicked their arses down to UKIP where they rightly belong.Sean_F said:
In my case, I distributed a lot of very good Labour Leave leaflets in left wing parts of Luton.SandyRentool said:
You assume that I was leafletting a Labour area. Which I wasn't.Jobabob said:
You knowingly distributed a bare face lie about funding the National Health Service to the very people who rely on it (who you purport to stick up for) to trick them into voting for your nationalist fantasy.SandyRentool said:@Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.
You should hang your head in shame.0 -
Sometimes a bit of empathy helps.....look at it from the point of view of the EU. They cannot under any circumstances make Brexit good for Britain. It is not in their interests. They are willing to take a hit on trade knowing that the integrity and continuation of the EU is a much bigger prize. That is a very valid perspective and one that almost exclusively all the senior politicians in the EU subscribe to.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, don't forget, the Brussels bureaucracy wants to be as big a pain in the arse to the UK as possible.
Although it's entirely theoretical at this stage, of course.
We cannot blame them or criticise them for acting in what they perceive as their collective, national self interests. We have to accept that we are not going to get a good deal from Europe and live with it. After all that is what we voted for.
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Thanks. Obviously my (literally) back-of-the-envelope calculation was way out.brokenwheel said:
At work and don't have my spreadsheet to hand but;Chris said:
It would be interesting to see the actual figures after the second day.brokenwheel said:
Just looking at the early vote numbers for Florida after 2nd day of in-person voting. Reps have regained the lead when adding in both postal and in-person, very odd. Also the second day of in-person appears to be a tie. In every in-person voting day in the last two elections Dems led weekday voting by ~40000 votes.JackW said:Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct
Clinton 45 .. Trump 46
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll
CBS here seems to be reporting a Republican lead of 7,000 after the first day (which accounted for 300,000 of about 1,575,000 votes so far, if I understand correctly). Given the reports of a Republican lead of 1.7% in the postal ballots, that suggests the first day reduced that lead from about 21,000 to 7,000, implying a Democrat lead of about 4.5% on the first day. It would be surprising if it had become a tie after the second day:
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/gop-has-slight-edge-over-dems-in-floridas-early-voting/
First day in-person was ~109000 Rep ~133000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead.
After 2nd day cumulative is ~216000 Rep ~240000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead implying second day was a wash.
Additionally the rep postal lead has gone up from ~7000 to ~40000.0 -
The Corbynite vote seems to be resilient at a low level everywhere. The Lib Dems didn't manage to squeeze Labour's vote significantly in Witney. That means that the Lib Dems are probably going to need to rely on far more Conservative to Lib Dem switchers than in the 1990s by-elections where Labour's vote at such by-elections evaporated.Pong said:hmm.
Is labour standing in Richmond park more beneficial to Zac or the LD's?
I'm not sure the Witney result is particularly instructive.
Id go with slightly beneficial to Zac, but not to any significant extent.0 -
So a senior politician is pretty neutral on an issue but leans slightly towards the government position when it comes to the crunch. They point out the downsides to their industry to a niche group, but, when the government loses the vote, ends up having to implement the result, and does so in the way they think the majority wanted.
Seems honourably pragmatic to me. Or are we only allowed to be happy with extremists in the 24 hour news cycle, and have to paint everyone not on our side as one?0 -
FL Dem activist Steve Schale on Twitter:Chris said:
Thanks. Obviously my (literally) back-of-the-envelope calculation was way out.brokenwheel said:
At work and don't have my spreadsheet to hand but;Chris said:
It would be interesting to see the actual figures after the second day.brokenwheel said:
Just looking at the early vote numbers for Florida after 2nd day of in-person voting. Reps have regained the lead when adding in both postal and in-person, very odd. Also the second day of in-person appears to be a tie. In every in-person voting day in the last two elections Dems led weekday voting by ~40000 votes.JackW said:Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct
Clinton 45 .. Trump 46
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll
CBS here seems to be reporting a Republican lead of 7,000 after the first day (which accounted for 300,000 of about 1,575,000 votes so far, if I understand correctly). Given the reports of a Republican lead of 1.7% in the postal ballots, that suggests the first day reduced that lead from about 21,000 to 7,000, implying a Democrat lead of about 4.5% on the first day. It would be surprising if it had become a tie after the second day:
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/gop-has-slight-edge-over-dems-in-floridas-early-voting/
First day in-person was ~109000 Rep ~133000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead.
After 2nd day cumulative is ~216000 Rep ~240000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead implying second day was a wash.
Additionally the rep postal lead has gone up from ~7000 to ~40000.
Here is a nice stat for you from Florida: Roughly 44% of Dem and NPA Hispanics who voted early yesterday are "unlikely" voters.
That's voters who are either first time, or who have voted in only 1 of last 3 general elections
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If you believe that's the case, then there is little point in wringing out the negotiations. We should go for Quick Brexit and get the damage over and done with.tyson said:
Sometimes a bit of empathy helps.....look at it from the point of view of the EU. They cannot under any circumstances make Brexit good for Britain. It is not in their interests. They are willing to take a hit on trade knowing that the integrity and continuation of the EU is a much bigger prize. That is a very valid perspective and one that almost exclusively all the senior politicians in the EU subscribe to.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, don't forget, the Brussels bureaucracy wants to be as big a pain in the arse to the UK as possible.
Although it's entirely theoretical at this stage, of course.
We cannot blame them or criticise them for acting in what they perceive as their collective, national self interests. We have to accept that we are not going to get a good deal from Europe and live with it. After all that is what we voted for.0 -
What did the LibDems throw at Witney? A large thatched country house?AlastairMeeks said:Tim Farron obviously doesn't believe in expectation management:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/7912326478927257600 -
How many sea passengers between Scotland & England?Anorak said:
There's nothing to stop Scotland imposing ID checks on sea passengerswilliamglenn said:
Do you think it beyond the wit of Brussels Man to fudge this point?CarlottaVance said:
Ireland is not in Schengen.Anorak said:
I think you need to make an argument that doesn't apply to Ireland too. Otherwise you're like a dog chasing her tail.CarlottaVance said:
Simplistic doesn't quite cover it.scotslass said:If border controls are not necessary on the Foyle they are not necessary on the Tweed
If Scotland is to have free movement of people from the EU, but E&W isn't - how exactly is that to be policed?
glw had a better go at it.
Scotland as a new member would be in Schengen.0 -
It is a point of faith that iScotland would be on the worst possible terms with the EU. That simultaneously Scotland would be bankrupt and making huge net contribution to the EU.williamglenn said:
Do you think it beyond the wit of Brussels Man to fudge this point?CarlottaVance said:
Ireland is not in Schengen.Anorak said:
I think you need to make an argument that doesn't apply to Ireland too. Otherwise you're like a dog chasing her tail.CarlottaVance said:
Simplistic doesn't quite cover it.scotslass said:If border controls are not necessary on the Foyle they are not necessary on the Tweed
If Scotland is to have free movement of people from the EU, but E&W isn't - how exactly is that to be policed?
glw had a better go at it.
Scotland as a new member would be in Schengen.0 -
As a cruel aside, the probable LD candidate looks like Mr Spock's ugly sister.
https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/7912299587145564170 -
A blanket.MarqueeMark said:
What did the LibDems throw at Witney? A large thatched country house?AlastairMeeks said:Tim Farron obviously doesn't believe in expectation management:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/791232647892725760
Judging by the result, possibly a wet one.0 -
Corbyn casts May as Baldrick...-1
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Jesus this is hard work. It about showing equivalence between Ireland (not in Schengen) and iScotland (possibly in Schengen). If they are equivalent then the argument about why you'd have to close the Scottish border but not the Irish one goes away.CarlottaVance said:
How many sea passengers between Scotland & England?Anorak said:
There's nothing to stop Scotland imposing ID checks on sea passengerswilliamglenn said:
Do you think it beyond the wit of Brussels Man to fudge this point?CarlottaVance said:
Ireland is not in Schengen.Anorak said:
I think you need to make an argument that doesn't apply to Ireland too. Otherwise you're like a dog chasing her tail.CarlottaVance said:
Simplistic doesn't quite cover it.scotslass said:If border controls are not necessary on the Foyle they are not necessary on the Tweed
If Scotland is to have free movement of people from the EU, but E&W isn't - how exactly is that to be policed?
glw had a better go at it.
Scotland as a new member would be in Schengen.0 -
Have Labour said they will stand?AlastairMeeks said:
The Corbynite vote seems to be resilient at a low level everywhere. The Lib Dems didn't manage to squeeze Labour's vote significantly in Witney. That means that the Lib Dems are probably going to need to rely on far more Conservative to Lib Dem switchers than in the 1990s by-elections where Labour's vote at such by-elections evaporated.Pong said:hmm.
Is labour standing in Richmond park more beneficial to Zac or the LD's?
I'm not sure the Witney result is particularly instructive.
Id go with slightly beneficial to Zac, but not to any significant extent.0 -
Poppycock. What can a mountainous, oil heavy, low population density country possibly tell us about iScotland?rcs1000 said:
Norway?Dromedary said:
That would be typical SNP dishonesty, arguing by false analogy from present to future while expecting supporters to say "Take that, you doubters!" A state that's in a single market with the EU cannot be in one with a state outside the EU that isn't.Jobabob said:
Quite right. Anytime anyone mentions this ludicrous idea of patrol boats on the Tweed, Nicola simply has to mention the lack of patrol boats on the Foyle.scotslass said:The problem is many people are asking what is the point of the New Statesman!
Their campaign against Corbyn has collapsed, their uber unionism gives them a similar profile to the Daily Telegraph in Scotland and their understanding of the constitutional question is roughly the same as the Prime Minister's advisers.
If BREXIT logic is that countries do not discriminate against other countries with whom they have a trade surplus then why does that not apply to Scotland which is England's fourth largest marketplace.
If the Government claims that they can have an soft border between two parts of Ireland then why would Scots believe they would erect a hard border between England and Scotland.0 -
Now I've said that they've updated the figures! Slightly better for the Dems but only by a few thousand votes. I'll wait until they've finished updating before analysing further.Chris said:
Thanks. Obviously my (literally) back-of-the-envelope calculation was way out.brokenwheel said:
At work and don't have my spreadsheet to hand but;Chris said:
It would be interesting to see the actual figures after the second day.brokenwheel said:
Just looking at the early vote numbers for Florida after 2nd day of in-person voting. Reps have regained the lead when adding in both postal and in-person, very odd. Also the second day of in-person appears to be a tie. In every in-person voting day in the last two elections Dems led weekday voting by ~40000 votes.JackW said:Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct
Clinton 45 .. Trump 46
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll
CBS here seems to be reporting a Republican lead of 7,000 after the first day (which accounted for 300,000 of about 1,575,000 votes so far, if I understand correctly). Given the reports of a Republican lead of 1.7% in the postal ballots, that suggests the first day reduced that lead from about 21,000 to 7,000, implying a Democrat lead of about 4.5% on the first day. It would be surprising if it had become a tie after the second day:
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/gop-has-slight-edge-over-dems-in-floridas-early-voting/
First day in-person was ~109000 Rep ~133000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead.
After 2nd day cumulative is ~216000 Rep ~240000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead implying second day was a wash.
Additionally the rep postal lead has gone up from ~7000 to ~40000.0 -
Cumulative stats are here: https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats619 said:
That looks a bit off tbh, but we will see anyway when more figures start coming in.brokenwheel said:
At work and don't have my spreadsheet to hand but;Chris said:
It would be interesting to see the actual figures after the second day.brokenwheel said:
Just looking at the early vote numbers for Florida after 2nd day of in-person voting. Reps have regained the lead when adding in both postal and in-person, very odd. Also the second day of in-person appears to be a tie. In every in-person voting day in the last two elections Dems led weekday voting by ~40000 votes.JackW said:Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct
Clinton 45 .. Trump 46
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll
CBS here seems to be reporting a Republican lead of 7,000 after the first day (which accounted for 300,000 of about 1,575,000 votes so far, if I understand correctly). Given the reports of a Republican lead of 1.7% in the postal ballots, that suggests the first day reduced that lead from about 21,000 to 7,000, implying a Democrat lead of about 4.5% on the first day. It would be surprising if it had become a tie after the second day:
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/gop-has-slight-edge-over-dems-in-floridas-early-voting/
First day in-person was ~109000 Rep ~133000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead.
After 2nd day cumulative is ~216000 Rep ~240000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead implying second day was a wash.
Additionally the rep postal lead has gone up from ~7000 to ~40000.0 -
Not reassuring, given May's role in Brexit negotiations. Who knows what else she will clumsily negotiate away at a 3am Brussels negotiating session.
"Within hours of May criticizing loose monetary policy in her Conservative Conference speech this month, her office moved to limit the damage by reassuring Carney the words were clumsily expressed, according to two people familiar with the matter. The Treasury -- which wasn’t consulted on the speech -- has since been taking a more active role in the crafting of May’s statements on the economy.
The government’s overtures to mend the relationship with Carney come as he counts down to a decision by year end on whether to leave the BOE as planned in 2018 or serve a full eight-year term until 2021."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/may-said-to-want-carney-to-stay-at-boe-as-he-reflects-on-role
0 -
Just noticed that Orange county is a day late in reporting postal votes (currently 50% higher in favour of Dem returns)brokenwheel said:
At work and don't have my spreadsheet to hand but;Chris said:
It would be interesting to see the actual figures after the second day.brokenwheel said:
Just looking at the early vote numbers for Florida after 2nd day of in-person voting. Reps have regained the lead when adding in both postal and in-person, very odd. Also the second day of in-person appears to be a tie. In every in-person voting day in the last two elections Dems led weekday voting by ~40000 votes.JackW said:Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct
Clinton 45 .. Trump 46
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll
CBS here seems to be reporting a Republican lead of 7,000 after the first day (which accounted for 300,000 of about 1,575,000 votes so far, if I understand correctly). Given the reports of a Republican lead of 1.7% in the postal ballots, that suggests the first day reduced that lead from about 21,000 to 7,000, implying a Democrat lead of about 4.5% on the first day. It would be surprising if it had become a tie after the second day:
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/gop-has-slight-edge-over-dems-in-floridas-early-voting/
First day in-person was ~109000 Rep ~133000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead.
After 2nd day cumulative is ~216000 Rep ~240000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead implying second day was a wash.
Additionally the rep postal lead has gone up from ~7000 to ~40000.0 -
Has anyone ever done serious counterfactual analysis as to what Scotland's GDP etc would look like now if it had recieved all its oil revenues through the 80s and 90s ?Alistair said:
Poppycock. What can a mountainous, oil heavy, low population density country possibly tell us about iScotland?rcs1000 said:
Norway?Dromedary said:
That would be typical SNP dishonesty, arguing by false analogy from present to future while expecting supporters to say "Take that, you doubters!" A state that's in a single market with the EU cannot be in one with a state outside the EU that isn't.Jobabob said:
Quite right. Anytime anyone mentions this ludicrous idea of patrol boats on the Tweed, Nicola simply has to mention the lack of patrol boats on the Foyle.scotslass said:The problem is many people are asking what is the point of the New Statesman!
Their campaign against Corbyn has collapsed, their uber unionism gives them a similar profile to the Daily Telegraph in Scotland and their understanding of the constitutional question is roughly the same as the Prime Minister's advisers.
If BREXIT logic is that countries do not discriminate against other countries with whom they have a trade surplus then why does that not apply to Scotland which is England's fourth largest marketplace.
If the Government claims that they can have an soft border between two parts of Ireland then why would Scots believe they would erect a hard border between England and Scotland.0 -
I hope they have planning permission.AlastairMeeks said:Tim Farron obviously doesn't believe in expectation management:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/7912326478927257600 -
Yes, the figures are eye wateringly large but I'm sure many on here wouldn't accept them.Pulpstar said:
Has anyone ever done serious counterfactual analysis as to what Scotland's GDP etc would look like now if it had recieved all its oil revenues through the 80s and 90s ?Alistair said:
Poppycock. What can a mountainous, oil heavy, low population density country possibly tell us about iScotland?rcs1000 said:
Norway?Dromedary said:
That would be typical SNP dishonesty, arguing by false analogy from present to future while expecting supporters to say "Take that, you doubters!" A state that's in a single market with the EU cannot be in one with a state outside the EU that isn't.Jobabob said:
Quite right. Anytime anyone mentions this ludicrous idea of patrol boats on the Tweed, Nicola simply has to mention the lack of patrol boats on the Foyle.scotslass said:The problem is many people are asking what is the point of the New Statesman!
Their campaign against Corbyn has collapsed, their uber unionism gives them a similar profile to the Daily Telegraph in Scotland and their understanding of the constitutional question is roughly the same as the Prime Minister's advisers.
If BREXIT logic is that countries do not discriminate against other countries with whom they have a trade surplus then why does that not apply to Scotland which is England's fourth largest marketplace.
If the Government claims that they can have an soft border between two parts of Ireland then why would Scots believe they would erect a hard border between England and Scotland.0 -
What a thoroughly dishonest thread header from Mr Meeks.
Whatever happens to the NHS either this winter or next would not have been affected one jot by whether we voted for Brexit or not. Not one extra penny would be available as he well knows because even if Article 50 had been triggered the day after the vote we would still be in the EU until at least June 2018.
This sort of desperation by Euro fanatics just confirms how devoid they are of either ideas or principles.0 -
Two grown up questions from Robertson - interestingly May passed on an opportunity to condemn Spain for re-fuelling the Russian aircraft carrier in Ceuta....0
-
Sadly you are probably right. There are other remainers here like FoxinUK who think the same, go for a quick Brexit, take a hit and then move from there.JosiasJessop said:
If you believe that's the case, then there is little point in wringing out the negotiations. We should go for Quick Brexit and get the damage over and done with.tyson said:
Sometimes a bit of empathy helps.....look at it from the point of view of the EU. They cannot under any circumstances make Brexit good for Britain. It is not in their interests. They are willing to take a hit on trade knowing that the integrity and continuation of the EU is a much bigger prize. That is a very valid perspective and one that almost exclusively all the senior politicians in the EU subscribe to.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, don't forget, the Brussels bureaucracy wants to be as big a pain in the arse to the UK as possible.
Although it's entirely theoretical at this stage, of course.
We cannot blame them or criticise them for acting in what they perceive as their collective, national self interests. We have to accept that we are not going to get a good deal from Europe and live with it. After all that is what we voted for.
If last weeks summit was anything to go by with May given the humiliating 5 minute midnight slot, the exit talks are going to be tortuous and lead us nowhere.
But what I find really irritating is that people criticise the EU for acting in their interests. If they kicked us out of the EU, I could understand the anger and irritation. But they didn't. This is something we the UK imposed on them and they are now responding in a perfectly reasonable and rational way.
And stop the EU hatred...the Eurcocrats/ Brussels/ gravy train/ ....it's tiresome and counterproductive and got us into this stupid, self inflicted mess in the first place.
0 -
He just loves campaigning on the doorsteps and wants everyone out doing it.AlastairMeeks said:Tim Farron obviously doesn't believe in expectation management:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/791232647892725760
I think Zac hold, but another marker put down for a LD recovery.0 -
Probably sensible diplomacyCarlottaVance said:Two grown up questions from Robertson - interestingly May passed on an opportunity to condemn Spain for re-fuelling the Russian aircraft carrier in Ceuta....
0 -
It would certainly be ironic if Trump's antics had generated a "monster vote" in favour of Hillary Clinton!rottenborough said:
FL Dem activist Steve Schale on Twitter:Chris said:
Thanks. Obviously my (literally) back-of-the-envelope calculation was way out.brokenwheel said:
At work and don't have my spreadsheet to hand but;Chris said:
It would be interesting to see the actual figures after the second day.brokenwheel said:
Just looking at the early vote numbers for Florida after 2nd day of in-person voting. Reps have regained the lead when adding in both postal and in-person, very odd. Also the second day of in-person appears to be a tie. In every in-person voting day in the last two elections Dems led weekday voting by ~40000 votes.JackW said:Florida - Selzer/Bloomberg - Sample 953 - 21-24 Oct
Clinton 45 .. Trump 46
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll
CBS here seems to be reporting a Republican lead of 7,000 after the first day (which accounted for 300,000 of about 1,575,000 votes so far, if I understand correctly). Given the reports of a Republican lead of 1.7% in the postal ballots, that suggests the first day reduced that lead from about 21,000 to 7,000, implying a Democrat lead of about 4.5% on the first day. It would be surprising if it had become a tie after the second day:
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/gop-has-slight-edge-over-dems-in-floridas-early-voting/
First day in-person was ~109000 Rep ~133000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead.
After 2nd day cumulative is ~216000 Rep ~240000 Dem. 24000 Dem lead implying second day was a wash.
Additionally the rep postal lead has gone up from ~7000 to ~40000.
Here is a nice stat for you from Florida: Roughly 44% of Dem and NPA Hispanics who voted early yesterday are "unlikely" voters.
That's voters who are either first time, or who have voted in only 1 of last 3 general elections0 -
Zac will try very hard, and I think will largely succeed, in framing the by-election as 'a vote for me is a vote against Heathrow expansion'. The LibDems seem likely to try to make it a vote on Theresa May's Brexit policy, but that doesn't actually make much sense, given that Theresa May and indeed her party are not on the ballot paper.Pulpstar said:Both Zac and the Lib Dems are opposed to LHR3 so I can't see how that is the major issue of the campaign.
In any case, in Richmond Heathrow trumps Brexit.0 -
Kevin Maguire: Corbyn missed open goal to destroy May after she warned Goldman Sachs that Brexit would be disaster. She won #PMQs by default0
-
I do not hate the EU eurocrats and gravy train but I do value democracy and the will of the people must be obeyed and we must leave the EUtyson said:
Sadly you are probably right. There are other remainers here like FoxinUK who think the same, go for a quick Brexit, take a hit and then move from there.JosiasJessop said:
If you believe that's the case, then there is little point in wringing out the negotiations. We should go for Quick Brexit and get the damage over and done with.tyson said:
Sometimes a bit of empathy helps.....look at it from the point of view of the EU. They cannot under any circumstances make Brexit good for Britain. It is not in their interests. They are willing to take a hit on trade knowing that the integrity and continuation of the EU is a much bigger prize. That is a very valid perspective and one that almost exclusively all the senior politicians in the EU subscribe to.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, don't forget, the Brussels bureaucracy wants to be as big a pain in the arse to the UK as possible.
Although it's entirely theoretical at this stage, of course.
We cannot blame them or criticise them for acting in what they perceive as their collective, national self interests. We have to accept that we are not going to get a good deal from Europe and live with it. After all that is what we voted for.
If last weeks summit was anything to go by with May given the humiliating 5 minute midnight slot, the exit talks are going to be tortuous and lead us nowhere.
But what I find really irritating is that people criticise the EU for acting in their interests. If they kicked us out of the EU, I could understand the anger and irritation. But they didn't. This is something we the UK imposed on them and they are now responding in a perfectly reasonable and rational way.
And stop the EU hatred...the Eurcocrats/ Brussels/ gravy train/ ....it's tiresome and counterproductive and got us into this stupid, self inflicted mess in the first place.0 -
A bit like the referendum itself which was about all sorts of things that were not on the ballot paper...Richard_Nabavi said:The LibDems seem likely to try to make it a vote on Theresa May's Brexit policy, but that doesn't actually make much sense, given that Theresa May and indeed her party are not on the ballot paper.
0 -
Richard_Nabavi said:
Zac will try very hard, and I think will largely succeed, in framing the by-election as 'a vote for me is a vote against Heathrow expansion'. The LibDems seem likely to try to make it a vote on Theresa May's Brexit policy, but that doesn't actually make much sense, given that Theresa May and indeed her party are not on the ballot paper.Pulpstar said:Both Zac and the Lib Dems are opposed to LHR3 so I can't see how that is the major issue of the campaign.
In any case, in Richmond Heathrow trumps Brexit.
Surely any reasonable LD campaign can somehow frame the debate as a vote for Zak is a vote for the runway since the Cons are not challenging. For Zak's argument to hold water he had to face down a pro runway Tory. Without a Tory challenge his actions seem vain at best.0 -
Maguire is in fantasy land if he thinks Corbyn could 'Destroy May'CarlottaVance said:Kevin Maguire: Corbyn missed open goal to destroy May after she warned Goldman Sachs that Brexit would be disaster. She won #PMQs by default
Indeed Sky took her position now as a positive being able to move on and take the Country out of the EU in accordance with the instruction of the voters0 -
Labour standing is much more beneficial to Zac. If they don't stand, it will much easier for the LibDems to persuade Labour voters to lend them their vote to send a message to the Tory Government.Pong said:hmm.
Is labour standing in Richmond park more beneficial to Zac or the LD's?
I'm not sure the Witney result is particularly instructive.
Id go with slightly beneficial to Zac, but not to any significant extent.
Incidentally, did anyone see Sarah Olney, the current LibDem PPC on Daily Politics? (About 11:45) She was excellent and even had Andrew Neil chuckling.0 -
what I find really irritating is that people criticise the EU for acting in their interests.tyson said:
Sadly you are probably right. There are other remainers here like FoxinUK who think the same, go for a quick Brexit, take a hit and then move from there.JosiasJessop said:
If you believe that's the case, then there is little point in wringing out the negotiations. We should go for Quick Brexit and get the damage over and done with.tyson said:
Sometimes a bit of empathy helps.....look at it from the point of view of the EU. They cannot under any circumstances make Brexit good for Britain. It is not in their interests. They are willing to take a hit on trade knowing that the integrity and continuation of the EU is a much bigger prize. That is a very valid perspective and one that almost exclusively all the senior politicians in the EU subscribe to.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, don't forget, the Brussels bureaucracy wants to be as big a pain in the arse to the UK as possible.
Although it's entirely theoretical at this stage, of course.
We cannot blame them or criticise them for acting in what they perceive as their collective, national self interests. We have to accept that we are not going to get a good deal from Europe and live with it. After all that is what we voted for.
If last weeks summit was anything to go by with May given the humiliating 5 minute midnight slot, the exit talks are going to be tortuous and lead us nowhere.
But what I find really irritating is that people criticise the EU for acting in their interests. If they kicked us out of the EU, I could understand the anger and irritation. But they didn't. This is something we the UK imposed on them and they are now responding in a perfectly reasonable and rational way.
And stop the EU hatred...the Eurcocrats/ Brussels/ gravy train/ ....it's tiresome and counterproductive and got us into this stupid, self inflicted mess in the first place.
Is it really in the EU's interests to start a trade war with the UK ?
Because that is what the "punishment" scenario is likely to lead to. Talk to the Irish, or the Swedes, and ask if that's really in their interest.
What is (possibly) irritating some, and does not appear entirely reasonable or rational, is the constant EU chatter about what kind of awful deal the UK should expect, coupled with the simultaneous refusal to contemplate any sort of negotiation prior to A50.
I hold no great hatred for the EU (& FWIW, I voted remain), but I am as irritated by the posturing of (say) Martin Schultz or Francois Hollande as I am by that of the equally absurd Liam Fox.0 -
I'm sure you'll be proved wrong on this. The fact that the LibDems agree with Zac will nullify the Heathrow angle to the campaign, and it'll become referendum redux. In by-elections (and many other elections) no-one cares what is "on the ballot paper".Richard_Nabavi said:
Zac will try very hard, and I think will largely succeed, in framing the by-election as 'a vote for me is a vote against Heathrow expansion'. The LibDems seem likely to try to make it a vote on Theresa May's Brexit policy, but that doesn't actually make much sense, given that Theresa May and indeed her party are not on the ballot paper.Pulpstar said:Both Zac and the Lib Dems are opposed to LHR3 so I can't see how that is the major issue of the campaign.
In any case, in Richmond Heathrow trumps Brexit.0 -
That's a very difficult line for the LibDems to run with, because Zac is the foremost anti-runway figure in the country, and certainly in Richmond. So I think they'll try to use @Pulpstar's approach of trying to make the by-election about other matters, but I think they'll struggle.tyson said:Surely any reasonable LD campaign can somehow frame the debate as a vote for Zak is a vote for the runway since the Cons are not challenging. For Zak's argument to hold water he had to face down a pro runway Tory. Without a Tory challenge his actions seem vain at best.
Their best hope might lie in your last sentence: portraying the by-election as a Zac vanity project. But it's tricky to get the tone right on that.0 -
In my mind, the main thing in the minds of the EU upper ranks will be preventing other countries leaving. That will mean making the UK appear to suffer from our decision to leave. If they give us an easy ride other countries will look at leaving; if only to get a better deal for themselves.tyson said:
Sadly you are probably right. There are other remainers here like FoxinUK who think the same, go for a quick Brexit, take a hit and then move from there.JosiasJessop said:
If you believe that's the case, then there is little point in wringing out the negotiations. We should go for Quick Brexit and get the damage over and done with.
If last weeks summit was anything to go by with May given the humiliating 5 minute midnight slot, the exit talks are going to be tortuous and lead us nowhere.
But what I find really irritating is that people criticise the EU for acting in their interests. If they kicked us out of the EU, I could understand the anger and irritation. But they didn't. This is something we the UK imposed on them and they are now responding in a perfectly reasonable and rational way.
And stop the EU hatred...the Eurcocrats/ Brussels/ gravy train/ ....it's tiresome and counterproductive and got us into this stupid, self inflicted mess in the first place.
Try as I might, I cannot see other factors overriding this. For a believer in the EU project, the UK getting a good deal could be seen as the start of an existential crisis.
It may be possible to get a deal where it *looks* as if we're suffering more than we are. But I doubt such an illusion would get through the necessary hoops.
For these reasons, I see an EEA-style deal - and especially an interim one as some espouse on here - as being highly unlikely.
I agree about stopping the EU hatred. It's getting very tired. The anti-EU fanatics will not stop until they have destroyed the EU, even after we have left. That is hardly a good background music for a negotiation ...0 -
Here is a nice stat for you from Florida: Roughly 44% of Dem and NPA Hispanics who voted early yesterday are "unlikely" voters.
Bloomberg are running a poll showing Trump leading by two in Florida with independents breaking slightly his way.
For those who trust in polls0 -
I think soft Brexit in the sense of staying in the single market is impossible for either side to agree. It is quite possible that tarrif free access to goods would be agreed, but I think little else. Hard Brexit it is.tyson said:
Sadly you are probably right. There are other remainers here like FoxinUK who think the same, go for a quick Brexit, take a hit and then move from there.JosiasJessop said:
If you believe that's the case, then there is little point in wringing out the negotiations. We should go for Quick Brexit and get the damage over and done with.tyson said:
Sometimes a bit of empathy helps.....look at it from the point of view of the EU. They cannot under any circumstances make Brexit good for Britain. It is not in their interests. They are willing to take a hit on trade knowing that the integrity and continuation of the EU is a much bigger prize. That is a very valid perspective and one that almost exclusively all the senior politicians in the EU subscribe to.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, don't forget, the Brussels bureaucracy wants to be as big a pain in the arse to the UK as possible.
Although it's entirely theoretical at this stage, of course.
We cannot blame them or criticise them for acting in what they perceive as their collective, national self interests. We have to accept that we are not going to get a good deal from Europe and live with it. After all that is what we voted for.
If last weeks summit was anything to go by with May given the humiliating 5 minute midnight slot, the exit talks are going to be tortuous and lead us nowhere.
But what I find really irritating is that people criticise the EU for acting in their interests. If they kicked us out of the EU, I could understand the anger and irritation. But they didn't. This is something we the UK imposed on them and they are now responding in a perfectly reasonable and rational way.
And stop the EU hatred...the Eurcocrats/ Brussels/ gravy train/ ....it's tiresome and counterproductive and got us into this stupid, self inflicted mess in the first place.
It is quite possible that a few years later there can be a more constructive relationship with Europe can be wrought by an alternative government, but for now the headbangers must have their way.0 -
Seems PB is splitting nicely in two on this one. Some of us think LHR will be the only salient issue and others think Liberals will manage to make it about Brexit.Dadge said:
I'm sure you'll be proved wrong on this. The fact that the LibDems agree with Zac will nullify the Heathrow angle to the campaign, and it'll become referendum redux. In by-elections (and many other elections) no-one cares what is "on the ballot paper".Richard_Nabavi said:
Zac will try very hard, and I think will largely succeed, in framing the by-election as 'a vote for me is a vote against Heathrow expansion'. The LibDems seem likely to try to make it a vote on Theresa May's Brexit policy, but that doesn't actually make much sense, given that Theresa May and indeed her party are not on the ballot paper.Pulpstar said:Both Zac and the Lib Dems are opposed to LHR3 so I can't see how that is the major issue of the campaign.
In any case, in Richmond Heathrow trumps Brexit.
I'm well in the former camp.0 -
"Because history" isn't a spectacularly convincing explanation, either.CarlottaVance said:
Here's a clue - history- of which you appear spectacularly ignorant.Jobabob said:
Explain to me why an independent EU Ireland doesn't need border controls but an independent EU Scotland does. Here's a clue – there is no rational explanation. So maybe save your time.CarlottaVance said:
You don't think there has been a difference in recent history between Northern Ireland & Scotland and their neighbours to the south?Jobabob said:
Why is the situation in Indy Scotland any different to that in Ireland?geoffw said:
No Malcolm. Hard brexit paints ScotNats into the corner. So Nicola has to support soft brexit to keep the flame alive.malcolmg said:CarlottaVance said:New Statesman:
For if there is to be a hard Brexit, Sturgeon would have to sell the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK, joining the EU and being confronted with not just border posts for anyone wanting to travel south but tariffs for anyone wanting to trade with England.
She’d have her work cut out.The UK is a significantly more vital trading partner for Scotland than the remaining 27 countries of the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK outstrip what it sell to Europe about four to one, and it’s estimated that while 250,000 Scots jobs are tied to the EU, a million more rely on being in the UK.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/10/hard-brexit-best-way-keep-scotland-uk-heres-why
Anyway, work.0 -
Praise be to all those heroic Britain First footsoldiers etc etc.Ishmael_X said:
Surely the key point is that he was out there leafletting. That's what wins referendums - not keyboard warriorhood (especially after the event) on niche websites.Jobabob said:
You knowingly distributed a bare face lie about funding the National Health Service to the very people who rely on it (who you purport to stick up for) to trick them into voting for your nationalist fantasy.SandyRentool said:@Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.
You should hang your head in shame.
Or, in my alternative view, if you haven't got anything good to say, keep your mouth shut.0 -
So the drop in the pound the morning after the referendum, which will lead to inflation and a drop in revenue, was a coincidence?Richard_Tyndall said:What a thoroughly dishonest thread header from Mr Meeks.
Whatever happens to the NHS either this winter or next would not have been affected one jot by whether we voted for Brexit or not. Not one extra penny would be available as he well knows because even if Article 50 had been triggered the day after the vote we would still be in the EU until at least June 2018.
This sort of desperation by Euro fanatics just confirms how devoid they are of either ideas or principles.0 -
Tim is the activists' favourite and the most sympathetic to activists since Paddy. Both the late and much lamented Charles Kennedy and Nick Clegg struggled to bond with the activists whereas Tim has pounded the pavements, knocked on the doors and done the leaflets.foxinsoxuk said:
He just loves campaigning on the doorsteps and wants everyone out doing it.AlastairMeeks said:Tim Farron obviously doesn't believe in expectation management:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/791232647892725760
I think Zac hold, but another marker put down for a LD recovery.
I don't always agree with his politics but I have every admiration for his energy and enthusiasm.
I think he paid five visits to Witney and he will be hugely visible in Richmond.
0 -
'Why won't those nasty, traitorous, Quisling Remoaners stop being so insulting about us?'
Part 43.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/791205716098822144
0 -
a) one polltaffys said:Here is a nice stat for you from Florida: Roughly 44% of Dem and NPA Hispanics who voted early yesterday are "unlikely" voters.
Bloomberg are running a poll showing Trump leading by two in Florida with independents breaking slightly his way.
For those who trust in polls
b) independents arent the same as unlikely voters0 -
I am not convinced that with the majority of Richmond electors Heathrow is as important as Zac seems to think it is . It is clearly his hobby horse . It would be nice to see a Ashcroft survey on the views of Richmond voters .Richard_Nabavi said:
Zac will try very hard, and I think will largely succeed, in framing the by-election as 'a vote for me is a vote against Heathrow expansion'. The LibDems seem likely to try to make it a vote on Theresa May's Brexit policy, but that doesn't actually make much sense, given that Theresa May and indeed her party are not on the ballot paper.Pulpstar said:Both Zac and the Lib Dems are opposed to LHR3 so I can't see how that is the major issue of the campaign.
In any case, in Richmond Heathrow trumps Brexit.0 -
So the LibDems will throw their 5 storey house against a semi-detached Tory.
If Zac does win it will be a very rare thing - an independent getting elected to Westminster.0 -
Quite right, with Corbyn and his merry band in the first party of expulsions.tyson said:
They should have expelled the Labour leavers and kicked their arses down to UKIP where they rightly belong.Sean_F said:
In my case, I distributed a lot of very good Labour Leave leaflets in left wing parts of Luton.SandyRentool said:
You assume that I was leafletting a Labour area. Which I wasn't.Jobabob said:
You knowingly distributed a bare face lie about funding the National Health Service to the very people who rely on it (who you purport to stick up for) to trick them into voting for your nationalist fantasy.SandyRentool said:@Jobabob - yes I'm a Leaver, yes I posted £350 million leaflets in response to the BS coming from the Remain campaign ('the end of western civilisation', ffs), but no, I'm not a Corbynite.
You should hang your head in shame.0 -
The thing is, even if it is all about LHR, how does that help Zac if he's not running against someone in favour? By not putting up a candidate against him the government are just playing along with his futile stunt and will not feel any pressure over LHR at all if he is returned to parliament. On the other hand if the LDs win it will put pressure on the government.rottenborough said:
Seems PB is splitting nicely in two on this one. Some of us think LHR will be the only salient issue and others think Liberals will manage to make it about Brexit.Dadge said:
I'm sure you'll be proved wrong on this. The fact that the LibDems agree with Zac will nullify the Heathrow angle to the campaign, and it'll become referendum redux. In by-elections (and many other elections) no-one cares what is "on the ballot paper".Richard_Nabavi said:
Zac will try very hard, and I think will largely succeed, in framing the by-election as 'a vote for me is a vote against Heathrow expansion'. The LibDems seem likely to try to make it a vote on Theresa May's Brexit policy, but that doesn't actually make much sense, given that Theresa May and indeed her party are not on the ballot paper.Pulpstar said:Both Zac and the Lib Dems are opposed to LHR3 so I can't see how that is the major issue of the campaign.
In any case, in Richmond Heathrow trumps Brexit.
I'm well in the former camp.0 -
Anything is possible. But even when under Labour we had a very pro-EU Govt there was little progress on issues that we wanted tackling (such as a full single market in services) and the surrendering of part of our rebate for the promise of major CAP reform was one of the worst examples of getting royally scre*ed by the EU.foxinsoxuk said:
.......It is quite possible that a few years later there can be a more constructive relationship with Europe can be wrought by an alternative government, but for now the headbangers must have their way.tyson said:
Sadly you are probably right. There are other remainers here like FoxinUK who think the same, go for a quick Brexit, take a hit and then move from there.JosiasJessop said:
If you believe that's the case, then there is little point in wringing out the negotiations. We should go for Quick Brexit and get the damage over and done with.tyson said:
Sometimes a bit of empathy helps.....look at it from the point of view of the EU. They cannot under any circumstances make Brexit good for Britain. It is not in their interests. They are willing to take a hit on trade knowing that the integrity and continuation of the EU is a much bigger prize. That is a very valid perspective and one that almost exclusively all the senior politicians in the EU subscribe to.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, don't forget, the Brussels bureaucracy wants to be as big a pain in the arse to the UK as possible.
Although it's entirely theoretical at this stage, of course.
We cannot blame them or criticise them for acting in what they perceive as their collective, national self interests. We have to accept that we are not going to get a good deal from Europe and live with it. After all that is what we voted for.
If last weeks summit was anything to go by with May given the humiliating 5 minute midnight slot, the exit talks are going to be tortuous and lead us nowhere.
But what I find really irritating is that people criticise the EU for acting in their interests. If they kicked us out of the EU, I could understand the anger and irritation. But they didn't. This is something we the UK imposed on them and they are now responding in a perfectly reasonable and rational way.
And stop the EU hatred...the Eurcocrats/ Brussels/ gravy train/ ....it's tiresome and counterproductive and got us into this stupid, self inflicted mess in the first place.
0 -
Applause from Marine Le Pen.Theuniondivvie said:'Why won't those nasty, traitorous, Quisling Remoaners stop being so insulting about us?'
Part 43.0 -
More likely the EU will make a once-in-a-lifetime offer to the Scots, whom most want to keep in the EU. That will be Nicola's gambit, and I as an formely pro-Union Englishman wish her the very best of luck with it.Alistair said:
It is a point of faith that iScotland would be on the worst possible terms with the EU. That simultaneously Scotland would be bankrupt and making huge net contribution to the EU.williamglenn said:
Do you think it beyond the wit of Brussels Man to fudge this point?CarlottaVance said:
Ireland is not in Schengen.Anorak said:
I think you need to make an argument that doesn't apply to Ireland too. Otherwise you're like a dog chasing her tail.CarlottaVance said:
Simplistic doesn't quite cover it.scotslass said:If border controls are not necessary on the Foyle they are not necessary on the Tweed
If Scotland is to have free movement of people from the EU, but E&W isn't - how exactly is that to be policed?
glw had a better go at it.
Scotland as a new member would be in Schengen.
Scotland should go for it. And we should wish them well.0 -
''a) one poll
b) independents arent the same as unlikely voters''
Oh I agree. Like I say I don't trust the polls.0 -
Leavers are such delicate flowers.Theuniondivvie said:'Why won't those nasty, Quisling Remoaners stop being so insulting about us?'
Part 43.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/791205716098822144
Someone complained to Mike about me calling 'Brexiteers, Juncker's fifth columnists' in a recent thread header.
Just imagine if I hadn't cut out this from the original version
'Within a few years time, Leavers may well be spoken by their fellow countrymen in the same breath as Kim Philby, Judas, Brutus, Vidkun Quisling, Benedict Arnold, and Ephialtes of Trachis'0 -
Yes the anti-European invective from posters who rarely leave their bedroom in Yorkshire is galling to say the very least.JosiasJessop said:
In my mind, the main thing in the minds of the EU upper ranks will be preventing other countries leaving. That will mean making the UK appear to suffer from our decision to leave. If they give us an easy ride other countries will look at leaving; if only to get a better deal for themselves.tyson said:
Sadly you are probably right. There are other remainers here like FoxinUK who think the same, go for a quick Brexit, take a hit and then move from there.JosiasJessop said:
If you believe that's the case, then there is little point in wringing out the negotiations. We should go for Quick Brexit and get the damage over and done with.
If last weeks summit was anything to go by with May given the humiliating 5 minute midnight slot, the exit talks are going to be tortuous and lead us nowhere.
But what I find really irritating is that people criticise the EU for acting in their interests. If they kicked us out of the EU, I could understand the anger and irritation. But they didn't. This is something we the UK imposed on them and they are now responding in a perfectly reasonable and rational way.
And stop the EU hatred...the Eurcocrats/ Brussels/ gravy train/ ....it's tiresome and counterproductive and got us into this stupid, self inflicted mess in the first place.
Try as I might, I cannot see other factors overriding this. For a believer in the EU project, the UK getting a good deal could be seen as the start of an existential crisis.
It may be possible to get a deal where it *looks* as if we're suffering more than we are. But I doubt such an illusion would get through the necessary hoops.
For these reasons, I see an EEA-style deal - and especially an interim one as some espouse on here - as being highly unlikely.
I agree about stopping the EU hatred. It's getting very tired. The anti-EU fanatics will not stop until they have destroyed the EU, even after we have left. That is hardly a good background music for a negotiation ...0 -
The activists might take comfort from Tim pounding the pavements, but if the electorate are very meh about him, will it have the impact they hope for?stodge said:
Tim is the activists' favourite and the most sympathetic to activists since Paddy. Both the late and much lamented Charles Kennedy and Nick Clegg struggled to bond with the activists whereas Tim has pounded the pavements, knocked on the doors and done the leaflets.foxinsoxuk said:
He just loves campaigning on the doorsteps and wants everyone out doing it.AlastairMeeks said:Tim Farron obviously doesn't believe in expectation management:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/791232647892725760
I think Zac hold, but another marker put down for a LD recovery.
I don't always agree with his politics but I have every admiration for his energy and enthusiasm.
I think he paid five visits to Witney and he will be hugely visible in Richmond.
0 -
The LibDems need to paint Zac as a swivel-eyed Brexiteer who cares nothing for the concerns of his constituents over Brexit. Only by electing a LibDem can you hold the government to account over their Brexit negotiations, they need to say.
Either that, or focus on dog fouling in Richmond Park.0 -
Not at all. Though her cheerleaders who act like anyone, leave or remain, who still retains some of those concerns from before despite the public vote (which do not erase concerns), should be condemned continually. There's too much attempt to shut down debate in society as it is, and in politics, all sides try it. Better we hear a lot of pointless and useless moaning than imply people cannot still have concerns, which is something we see a lot of.CarlottaVance said:
These were remarkably similar to the comments she made in public.....tyson said:I saw the article in the Guardian about May's pro EU comments to the bankers pre vote.
Now she has accepted the verdict of the people she is to be condemned?
0 -
stodge said:
Tim is the activists' favourite and the most sympathetic to activists since Paddy. Both the late and much lamented Charles Kennedy and Nick Clegg struggled to bond with the activists whereas Tim has pounded the pavements, knocked on the doors and done the leaflets.foxinsoxuk said:
He just loves campaigning on the doorsteps and wants everyone out doing it.AlastairMeeks said:Tim Farron obviously doesn't believe in expectation management:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/791232647892725760
I think Zac hold, but another marker put down for a LD recovery.
I don't always agree with his politics but I have every admiration for his energy and enthusiasm.
I think he paid five visits to Witney and he will be hugely visible in Richmond.
I remember this well. In the pub post delivery in 1999 I told a group of activists I was voting Kennedy not Hughes in the leadership election. The response was ferocious. One comment summed it up. Kennedy was a " lazy alcoholic ". All parties have their cults and Lib Dem activists have shoe leather as theirs.stodge said:
Tim is the activists' favourite and the most sympathetic to activists since Paddy. Both the late and much lamented Charles Kennedy and Nick Clegg struggled to bond with the activists whereas Tim has pounded the pavements, knocked on the doors and done the leaflets.foxinsoxuk said:
He just loves campaigning on the doorsteps and wants everyone out doing it.AlastairMeeks said:Tim Farron obviously doesn't believe in expectation management:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/791232647892725760
I think Zac hold, but another marker put down for a LD recovery.
I don't always agree with his politics but I have every admiration for his energy and enthusiasm.
I think he paid five visits to Witney and he will be hugely visible in Richmond.0 -
Apparently they're going to throw a house at him. Like the Wicked Witch of the East...SandyRentool said:Either that, or focus on dog fouling in Richmond Park.
0 -
Labour guy on Daily Politics just been left gasping for air like a fish out of its bowl on customs union issue by Andrew Neill....0
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I agree. It's classic Heirarchy of Needs. Accept Zac is anti Heathrow, accept the seat needs an anti Heathrow MP, establish the Lib Dem candidate will be both then reframe on another topic after having levelled the killing field.SandyRentool said:The LibDems need to paint Zac as a swivel-eyed Brexiteer who cares nothing for the concerns of his constituents over Brexit. Only by electing a LibDem can you hold the government to account over their Brexit negotiations, they need to say.
Either that, or focus on dog fouling in Richmond Park.0 -
Is it really in the EU's interests to start a trade war with the UK ?
Because that is what the "punishment" scenario is likely to lead to. Talk to the Irish, or the Swedes, and ask if that's really in their interest.
What is (possibly) irritating some, and does not appear entirely reasonable or rational, is the constant EU chatter about what kind of awful deal the UK should expect, coupled with the simultaneous refusal to contemplate any sort of negotiation prior to A50.
I hold no great hatred for the EU (& FWIW, I voted remain), but I am as irritated by the posturing of (say) Martin Schultz or Francois Hollande as I am by that of the equally absurd Liam Fox.
Look at JosiasJessop (good posting name) reply to mine above. I couldn't answer better.
Against a tide of populist uprising on the continent, they (the EU) have to make Brexit painful. It's not chatter.....and it's not just limited to Schultz or Hollande...it's all of them. Renzi, Merkel, Junker, Tusk, Juppe. For all these leading politicians this is about preserving the EU which they believe is in their national interests. The remaining countries within the EU have to look at the fate of the UK and think that is a path they do not want.
0 -
Expect some heft MPs expense bills incoming for "refreshments"
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/7912386743903805440 -
Does anyone know when Spain joined the Warsaw Pact ?0
-
It was a very good post from JosiasJobabob said:
Yes the anti-European invective from posters who rarely leave their bedroom in Yorkshire is galling to say the very least.JosiasJessop said:
In my mind, the main thing in the minds of the EU upper ranks will be preventing other countries leaving. That will mean making the UK appear to suffer from our decision to leave. If they give us an easy ride other countries will look at leaving; if only to get a better deal for themselves.tyson said:
Sadly you are probably right. There are other remainers here like FoxinUK who think the same, go for a quick Brexit, take a hit and then move from there.JosiasJessop said:
If you believe that's the case, then there is little point in wringing out the negotiations. We should go for Quick Brexit and get the damage over and done with.
If last weeks summit was anything to go by with May given the humiliating 5 minute midnight slot, the exit talks are going to be tortuous and lead us nowhere.
But what I find really irritating is that people criticise the EU for acting in their interests. If they kicked us out of the EU, I could understand the anger and irritation. But they didn't. This is something we the UK imposed on them and they are now responding in a perfectly reasonable and rational way.
And stop the EU hatred...the Eurcocrats/ Brussels/ gravy train/ ....it's tiresome and counterproductive and got us into this stupid, self inflicted mess in the first place.
Try as I might, I cannot see other factors overriding this. For a believer in the EU project, the UK getting a good deal could be seen as the start of an existential crisis.
It may be possible to get a deal where it *looks* as if we're suffering more than we are. But I doubt such an illusion would get through the necessary hoops.
For these reasons, I see an EEA-style deal - and especially an interim one as some espouse on here - as being highly unlikely.
I agree about stopping the EU hatred. It's getting very tired. The anti-EU fanatics will not stop until they have destroyed the EU, even after we have left. That is hardly a good background music for a negotiation ...
0 -
June 24th 2016.Alanbrooke said:Does anyone know when Spain joined the Warsaw Pact ?
All part of the plan to seize Gibraltar in the aftermath of Brexit.
Gibraltar for membership of the single market seems like a good deal.0 -
ut venientTheScreamingEagles said:
June 24th 2016.Alanbrooke said:Does anyone know when Spain joined the Warsaw Pact ?
All part of the plan to seize Gibraltar in the aftermath of Brexit.
Gibraltar for membership of the single market seems like a good deal.0 -
You have to hand it the Russians; they make beautiful ships (or at least, as beautiful as a carrier aviation cruiser can be.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37773606
It's odd: when the US and USSR/Russia design tech to do the same job, the USSR versions always seem to *look* better, even if they're less capable. The B1B / TU160 and the Shuttle/Buran being other examples.0 -
errr arent the russian versions just inferior copies of the US ones ?JosiasJessop said:You have to hand it the Russians; they make beautiful ships (or at least, as beautiful as a carrier aviation cruiser can be.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37773606
It's odd: when the US and USSR/Russia design tech to do the same job, the USSR versions always seem to *look* better, even if they're less capable. The B1B / TU160 and the Shuttle/Buran being other examples.0 -
@SandyRentool
'The LibDems need to paint Zac as a swivel-eyed Brexiteer who cares nothing for the concerns of his constituents over Brexit. Only by electing a LibDem can you hold the government to account over their Brexit negotiations, they need to say.
Either that, or focus on dog fouling in Richmond Park.'
Or election pledges on tuition fees.0 -
Poor old Ed, if he isn't being called the son of a Marxist traitor, he's being compared to Nazi sympathising collaborators.
https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/7912473406823055360 -
@Jobabob The end of the British political Union would be a once in several centuries global tragedy. But for the first time in my life I wouldn't blame them. I don't want them to go but it's a truly grim situation. Incidentally I see the Scottish Greens have said they'll vote for the #indyref2 bill " when " it's presented.
As actual Brexit makes independence much harder for Scotland there must be a real chance Sturgeon will cut and run even if the polling hasn't shifted ( which it hasn't todate. )0 -
May's Falklands? The Spanish military is hardly world beatingTheScreamingEagles said:
June 24th 2016.Alanbrooke said:Does anyone know when Spain joined the Warsaw Pact ?
All part of the plan to seize Gibraltar in the aftermath of Brexit.
Gibraltar for membership of the single market seems like a good deal.0 -
Or a sex assassin for the Clintons.Theuniondivvie said:Poor old Ed, if he isn't being called the son of a Marxist traitor, he's being compared to Nazi sympathising collaborators.
https://twitter.com/Ed_Miliband/status/7912473406823055360
