politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Heathrow expansion to go ahead: Zac Goldsmith to make a statem
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Heathrow expansion to go ahead: Zac Goldsmith to make a statement tonight
In Richmond Park constituency the EURef split wasREMAIN 72%LEAVE 28%Zac was a leaver
Comments
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This is a new modification, apparently. It's a story from a tier one (US) investment bank, so I'm sure it has some basis in fact.MaxPB said:
This was agreed between the commission and Canada already and derailed by a few Belgians. I don't see what they can change to make it acceptable unless they gut it.rcs1000 said:
I'm hearing a modified CETA may be agreed imminently.MaxPB said:
Basically, but in a post-CETA failure world the EU will matter a lot less in global trade terms. If the EU can't get CETA through in the next year or so they may as well close up shop to the outside world.Anorak said:
Also, playing nice with large trading blocs is the diplomatic thing to do, regardless of the strict legalities of a particular issue!!Paristonda said:
Perhaps the EU has applied pressure to Oz. They could still be dragged into any court issue even if they are not accused of any wrongdoing personally.Indigo said:
How very odd. It may or may not be unlawful for the UK, in what way is Australia bound by the provisions of the Lisbon and Maastricht Treaties ?TheScreamingEagles said:Well well well
ttps://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/790843662443941890
We'll see.
There are two ways it might work: one, it may be cut in scope so that the EU agrees it via QMV, or two, there may be concessions that satisfy the Waloons.0 -
It seems to have been confirmed already that he's resigning:
https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/7908696807854161920 -
Let's hope Zak makes a better "go" of his by election than his disaster of a Mayoral campaign...0
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Will he stand as a Conservative or an Independent?AlastairMeeks said:It seems to have been confirmed already that he's resigning:
https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/790869680785416192
If the latter, will the Conservatives stand against him?
Presumably the local Conservative Association will try and persuade him to remain true.
My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and he is elected with a 5-7,000 majority.0 -
Alistair said:
Speaking of Texas
https://twitter.com/KUT/status/790756623467675648
'Within Texas, Travis County is known as an exceptionally culturally "liberal" region and a stronghold of the Texas Democratic Party.[24] The county voted for the Democratic candidate in six of the most recent seven US Presidential elections (and its one vote for a Republican was for George W. Bush, the sitting Texas Governor). Few county-wide elected positions are even contested by Republican candidates.[25] In 2005 it was the only county in Texas to vote against the Proposition 2 state constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travis_County,_Texas
Texan Dems are coming out early and hard...0 -
Zac is an overall electoral liability for the Tories. An posh, OE, greeny, rich, entitled ecomentalist trustafarian. We just had a vote which essentially was a cry of frustration at elites seeking to look after their own and ignore the general needs of Joe Average. The Zac position is not a good look at all. Why did the Tories make a tool like this their candidate for London?0
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I think the Lib Dems, if they go hard on how Zac campaigned during the mayoral election and his LEAVE viewpoint, could well win, esp if they pick a popular local figure and if the Tories put someone up0
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So "dithering" May has done in 3 months what Cameron didn't do in 6 years....0
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He will struggle to play down his 'ugly' mayoral campaign and pro-Brexit views. I think even as an Independent with no Tory candidate, the LDs would be favourites.rcs1000 said:My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and he is elected with a 5-7,000 majority.
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https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/790872339881877504
Sky infer that Goldsmith is taking flight.0 -
Richmond Park is the perfect constituency for a by-election for the Lib Dems: a Remain stronghold in which they have historical strength. It's a must-win for them. If not here, then where?0
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Yep, I think there's the chance of a Lib-Dem "spectacular" here. Zak's a fool... But we all knew that anyway.619 said:I think the Lib Dems, if they go hard on how Zac campaigned during the mayoral election and his LEAVE viewpoint, could well win, esp if they pick a popular local figure and if the Tories put someone up
Yep. So much for Theresa Maybe lol!CarlottaVance said:So "dithering" May has done in 3 months what Cameron didn't do in 6 years....
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How will investor-state disputes be arbitrated then? I highly, highly doubt that Canada will accept ECJ arbitration and the EU will be unable to accept a transfer of sovereignty to Canada.Alistair said:I thought the Waloons objected to the ISDS component? Easy fix, get rid of the ISDS.
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Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am0 -
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A bit of pork has never hurt anyone, but then again they still might not vote in favour given the strength of opposition to ISDS arbitration.Anorak said:FPT:
What odds a colossal EU grant lands in Wallonia within 12 months.MaxPB said:A move to pass by QMV would mean gutting it and there is no satisfying the Waloons. I'm sure the commission and Canada have made modifications, but then they also thought CETA would pass as is.
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And so it begins.
Are the lib dems anti-heathrow expansion?0 -
My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and his majority is in the range +3000 to -1000.rcs1000 said:
Will he stand as a Conservative or an Independent?AlastairMeeks said:It seems to have been confirmed already that he's resigning:
https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/790869680785416192
If the latter, will the Conservatives stand against him?
Presumably the local Conservative Association will try and persuade him to remain true.
My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and he is elected with a 5-7,000 majority.0 -
Marc Caputo in an extensive article in "Politico" looks at worrying signs for Trump in Florida :
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-clinton-florida-2302750 -
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.0 -
Why would the Tories do him a favour and not stand? If he runs as independent the Tories need to field their own candidate as usual.Barnesian said:
My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and his majority is in the range +3000 to -1000.rcs1000 said:
Will he stand as a Conservative or an Independent?AlastairMeeks said:It seems to have been confirmed already that he's resigning:
https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/790869680785416192
If the latter, will the Conservatives stand against him?
Presumably the local Conservative Association will try and persuade him to remain true.
My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and he is elected with a 5-7,000 majority.0 -
''He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.''
The stakes for the lib dems are huge in that by-election. Zack has a huge majority. Imagine they lose.0 -
A few years ago the European Commission put out a helpful guide about why investor-state dispute resolution is necessary - http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2013/october/tradoc_151790.pdfMaxPB said:
A bit of pork has never hurt anyone, but then again they still might not vote in favour given the strength of opposition to ISDS arbitration.Anorak said:FPT:
What odds a colossal EU grant lands in Wallonia within 12 months.MaxPB said:A move to pass by QMV would mean gutting it and there is no satisfying the Waloons. I'm sure the commission and Canada have made modifications, but then they also thought CETA would pass as is.
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''Always have been''
So the lib dem proposal for airport expansion is...??? Zero??0 -
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If they field their own candidate they'll be doing the LibDems a favour. Why would they do that?GIN1138 said:
Why would the Tories do him a favour and not stand? If he runs as independent the Tories need to field their own candidate as usual.Barnesian said:
My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and his majority is in the range +3000 to -1000.rcs1000 said:
Will he stand as a Conservative or an Independent?AlastairMeeks said:It seems to have been confirmed already that he's resigning:
https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/790869680785416192
If the latter, will the Conservatives stand against him?
Presumably the local Conservative Association will try and persuade him to remain true.
My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and he is elected with a 5-7,000 majority.0 -
But he is pretty much the ideal candidate for a place like Richmond, Brexit aside.Patrick said:Zac is an overall electoral liability for the Tories. An posh, OE, greeny, rich, entitled ecomentalist trustafarian. We just had a vote which essentially was a cry of frustration at elites seeking to look after their own and ignore the general needs of Joe Average. The Zac position is not a good look at all. Why did the Tories make a tool like this their candidate for London?
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I know all of that, explain it to the Walloons.williamglenn said:
A few years ago the European Commission put out a helpful guide about why investor-state dispute resolution is necessary - http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2013/october/tradoc_151790.pdfMaxPB said:
A bit of pork has never hurt anyone, but then again they still might not vote in favour given the strength of opposition to ISDS arbitration.Anorak said:FPT:
What odds a colossal EU grant lands in Wallonia within 12 months.MaxPB said:A move to pass by QMV would mean gutting it and there is no satisfying the Waloons. I'm sure the commission and Canada have made modifications, but then they also thought CETA would pass as is.
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A by-election in Westmorland would probably be winnable and would do them a power of good.AlastairMeeks said:Richmond Park is the perfect constituency for a by-election for the Lib Dems: a Remain stronghold in which they have historical strength. It's a must-win for them. If not here, then where?
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Goldsmith has tirelessly campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow and his Eurosceptic views have been known about for years. If anything the Tory party has failed the residents of Richmond but Goldsmith certainly hasn't.GIN1138 said:
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.0 -
National Weekly Tracker - NBC/Survey Monkey - Sample 32,225 - 17-23 Oct
Clinton 50 .. Trump 44
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/poll-republican-party-fractured-hillary-clinton-maintains-solid-lead-n672001
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Because their (many) Conservative supporters in that constituency have the right to vote for a Conservative candidate?Barnesian said:
If they field their own candidate they'll be doing the LibDems a favour. Why would they do that?GIN1138 said:
Why would the Tories do him a favour and not stand? If he runs as independent the Tories need to field their own candidate as usual.Barnesian said:
My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and his majority is in the range +3000 to -1000.rcs1000 said:
Will he stand as a Conservative or an Independent?AlastairMeeks said:It seems to have been confirmed already that he's resigning:
https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/790869680785416192
If the latter, will the Conservatives stand against him?
Presumably the local Conservative Association will try and persuade him to remain true.
My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and he is elected with a 5-7,000 majority.
You could make the argument all over the place that some parties shouldn't field candidates in certain seats at elections because it just helps boost a rival party but democracy needs to come first.0 -
Just as well the LibDems have largely disappeared. The country really needs airport capacity. New capacity that integrates with our existing capacity. The Heathrow decision is a good example of TINA. How will potential LibDem voters who don't live under the flight path view this NIMBYism? After Brexit and the future trade imperative it's even more vital than it already was to deliver two or three new runways. |Let's hope Gatwick2 and maybe Birmingham follow.MikeSmithson said:
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I think realpolitik will come first.GIN1138 said:
Because their (many) Conservative supporters in that constituency have the right to vote for a Conservative candidate?Barnesian said:
If they field their own candidate they'll be doing the LibDems a favour. Why would they do that?GIN1138 said:
Why would the Tories do him a favour and not stand? If he runs as independent the Tories need to field their own candidate as usual.Barnesian said:
My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and his majority is in the range +3000 to -1000.rcs1000 said:
Will he stand as a Conservative or an Independent?AlastairMeeks said:It seems to have been confirmed already that he's resigning:
https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/790869680785416192
If the latter, will the Conservatives stand against him?
Presumably the local Conservative Association will try and persuade him to remain true.
My base case is that he runs as an Independent, the Conservatives do not stand, and he is elected with a 5-7,000 majority.
You could make the argument all over the place that some parties should field candidates at elections because it just helps boost a rival party but democracy needs to come first.0 -
Well in that case Zack should have no problem holding on to the seat but obviously the Lib-Dems are going to make hay while sun shines.MP_SE said:
Goldsmith has tirelessly campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow and his Eurosceptic views have been known about for years. If anything the Tory party has failed the residents of Richmond but Goldsmith certainly hasn't.GIN1138 said:
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.
Good on them.0 -
National Tracker - IBD/TIPP - Sample 874 - 19-24 Oct
Clinton 42 .. Trump 41
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/0 -
"opposed to any expansion of Heathrow, Stansted, Gatwick or any new airport in the Thames Estuary, and ensuring no net increase in runways across the UK as a whole"taffys said:''Always have been''
So the lib dem proposal for airport expansion is...??? Zero??
(passed at 2014 conference)0 -
The by election will be a verdict on the Government (Brexit and Heathrow expansion) not on Zac.MP_SE said:
Goldsmith has tirelessly campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow and his Eurosceptic views have been known about for years. If anything the Tory party has failed the residents of Richmond but Goldsmith certainly hasn't.GIN1138 said:
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.0 -
HA.JackW said:National Tracker - IBD/TIPP - Sample 874 - 19-24 Oct
Clinton 42 .. Trump 41
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
And the last hope of the Trumpers disappear0 -
Richmond Remain = 69%
Kingston Remain = 62%
Edit/ and if Mike's figure above is accurate, the constituency is more Remain than both of the boroughs.0 -
"opposed to any expansion of Heathrow, Stansted, Gatwick or any new airport in the Thames Estuary, and ensuring no net increase in runways across the UK as a whole"
Thanks,
The lib dems will be asked about this and I'm not sure it will be that popular, to be honest.0 -
The by election will be a verdict on what rich, metropolitan, lefty, Nimby elites in a leafy part of London think about Brexit and the potential impact on the value of their multi-million pound houses. Not a lot I expect. Ask what people in Nuneaton think.Barnesian said:
The by election will be a verdict on the Government (Brexit and Heathrow expansion) not on Zac.MP_SE said:
Goldsmith has tirelessly campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow and his Eurosceptic views have been known about for years. If anything the Tory party has failed the residents of Richmond but Goldsmith certainly hasn't.GIN1138 said:
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.
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Any odds available yet? It looks like Shadsy has sloped off for an early lunch.
if I were a betting man, I'd expect the odds in a three horse race to look something like the following:
Libdems ...................................... 1.5
Conservative ................................3.5
Goldsmith (in whatever guise) ..... 6.0
50/1 bar these 3.0 -
Are you calling on Marcus Jones to resign his seat so we can ask them?Patrick said:
The by election will be a verdict on what rich, metropolitan, lefty, Nimby elites in a leafy part of London think about Brexit and the potential impact on the value of their multi-million pound houses. Not a lot I expect. Ask what people in Nuneaton think.Barnesian said:
The by election will be a verdict on the Government (Brexit and Heathrow expansion) not on Zac.MP_SE said:
Goldsmith has tirelessly campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow and his Eurosceptic views have been known about for years. If anything the Tory party has failed the residents of Richmond but Goldsmith certainly hasn't.GIN1138 said:
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.0 -
I had a good giggle at that!!Tissue_Price said:
A by-election in Westmorland would probably be winnable and would do them a power of good.AlastairMeeks said:Richmond Park is the perfect constituency for a by-election for the Lib Dems: a Remain stronghold in which they have historical strength. It's a must-win for them. If not here, then where?
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It is very unlikely indeed that the local Conservative association will want to field a candidate against Zac, or that they would choose any candidate who wasn't 100% opposed to the new runway. The choice is not just up to CCHQ, and it would be a declaration of war to try to impose a candidate. The political logic therefore points towards either Zac standing again as a Conservative, or him being unopposed by the Conservatives.0
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I suspect he loses as a conservative, and wins as an independent.Richard_Nabavi said:It is very unlikely indeed that the local Conservative association will want to field a candidate against Zac, or that they would choose any candidate who wasn't 100% opposed to the new runway. The choice is not just up to CCHQ, and it would be a declaration of war to try to impose a candidate. The political logic therefore points towards either Zac standing again as a Conservative, or him being unopposed by the Conservatives.
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I think he'd win either way.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he loses as a conservative, and wins as an independent.Richard_Nabavi said:It is very unlikely indeed that the local Conservative association will want to field a candidate against Zac, or that they would choose any candidate who wasn't 100% opposed to the new runway. The choice is not just up to CCHQ, and it would be a declaration of war to try to impose a candidate. The political logic therefore points towards either Zac standing again as a Conservative, or him being unopposed by the Conservatives.
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Rigged, inevitably.619 said:
HA.JackW said:National Tracker - IBD/TIPP - Sample 874 - 19-24 Oct
Clinton 42 .. Trump 41
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
And the last hope of the Trumpers disappear0 -
If Zac stands as an independent, the Tories have to stand someone against him. Not to do so, would give the green light to any other Tory MP resigning over something else they hold dear, whether it's one of the EU decisions or the boundary review.
Maybe a pro-expansion Conservative in Richmond would be kind enough to point out to the constituents that the proposed extension *North* of the existing airfield would lead to *Fewer* planes flying over Richmond itself.0 -
British Airways has more LHR slots than it knows what to do with. They don't have enough wide bodied aircraft to use their existing slots effectively and have to resort to 'slot sitting' with pointless flights to Leeds, Rotterdam, etc.
LHR just means more profits for the Spanish owners of the airport and more slots for the Middle East 3, US and Asian carriers, with increased noise, pollution and disruption in West and South West London.
On this, as well as Brexit, I agree with Zac.0 -
So Witney was a good warm up act for the LDs after all.0
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Incumbent Nimby vs opportunistic Nimbys.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he loses as a conservative, and wins as an independent.Richard_Nabavi said:It is very unlikely indeed that the local Conservative association will want to field a candidate against Zac, or that they would choose any candidate who wasn't 100% opposed to the new runway. The choice is not just up to CCHQ, and it would be a declaration of war to try to impose a candidate. The political logic therefore points towards either Zac standing again as a Conservative, or him being unopposed by the Conservatives.
Surely it will be a fantastic contest full of ideas and national vision.....0 -
Erm....no. I'm saying this is a good and sensible decision and the self interested bleating will not be broadly well received. I also think the LibDems setting themselves up as a party of modern Luddites opposed to any capacity expansion in a modern world is effing loopy.williamglenn said:
Are you calling on Marcus Jones to resign his seat so we can ask them?Patrick said:
The by election will be a verdict on what rich, metropolitan, lefty, Nimby elites in a leafy part of London think about Brexit and the potential impact on the value of their multi-million pound houses. Not a lot I expect. Ask what people in Nuneaton think.Barnesian said:
The by election will be a verdict on the Government (Brexit and Heathrow expansion) not on Zac.MP_SE said:
Goldsmith has tirelessly campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow and his Eurosceptic views have been known about for years. If anything the Tory party has failed the residents of Richmond but Goldsmith certainly hasn't.GIN1138 said:
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.
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Let's see who the opponents are. As a betting proposition I don't agree with Mike that the LibDems start as clear favourites, unless the Tories go against Goldsmith as well. He has a big majority, and his stance is bound to attract some respect (edit/ someone saying just that on LBC). Their best chance is to turn the by-election around to the Brexit issue, which will depend on what happens over coming weeks. A big jump in the next inflation figure is starting to look quite likely.taffys said:
You guys better win this, thenIanB2 said:Richmond Remain = 69%
Kingston Remain = 62%0 -
As we saw in the mayoral race Zac is an excellent campaigner. Oh hang on, no! The opposite of that. Zac could lose this.
LD choice is important.0 -
Ladbrokes:
4/6 Zac
6/4 LD
8 Cons (not Zac)0 -
But not vs a Tory as well, surely?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think he'd win either way.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he loses as a conservative, and wins as an independent.Richard_Nabavi said:It is very unlikely indeed that the local Conservative association will want to field a candidate against Zac, or that they would choose any candidate who wasn't 100% opposed to the new runway. The choice is not just up to CCHQ, and it would be a declaration of war to try to impose a candidate. The political logic therefore points towards either Zac standing again as a Conservative, or him being unopposed by the Conservatives.
The Government simply can't refuse to put up a candidate in a mainland by-election, imo [exceptions like Jo Cox notwithstanding]. Especially one called over Government policy. They would be open to well-deserved ridicule. So the question is whether Zac can be the Tory candidate or not, in the circumstances.0 -
I don't think the Lib's mind expanding railways (and bus/cycle lanes?) they are just opposed to plane and road expansion because of climate change?Patrick said:
Erm....no. I'm saying this is a good and sensible decision and the self interested bleating will not be broadly well received. I also think the LibDems setting themselves up as a party of modern Luddites opposed to any capacity expansion in a modern world is effing loopy.williamglenn said:
Are you calling on Marcus Jones to resign his seat so we can ask them?Patrick said:
The by election will be a verdict on what rich, metropolitan, lefty, Nimby elites in a leafy part of London think about Brexit and the potential impact on the value of their multi-million pound houses. Not a lot I expect. Ask what people in Nuneaton think.Barnesian said:
The by election will be a verdict on the Government (Brexit and Heathrow expansion) not on Zac.MP_SE said:
Goldsmith has tirelessly campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow and his Eurosceptic views have been known about for years. If anything the Tory party has failed the residents of Richmond but Goldsmith certainly hasn't.GIN1138 said:
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.0 -
From which runway?dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/790872339881877504
Sky infer that Goldsmith is taking flight.0 -
Elections are always about the future, not the past. Zac's electorate are not going to send him a thank you note for a failed futile gesture.IanB2 said:
Let's see who the opponents are. As a betting proposition I don't agree with Mike that the LibDems start as clear favourites, unless the Tories go against Goldsmith as well. He has a big majority, and his stance is bound to attract some respect (edit/ someone saying just that on LBC). Their best chance is to turn the by-election around to the Brexit issue, which will depend on what happens over coming weeks. A big jump in the next inflation figure is starting to look quite likely.taffys said:
You guys better win this, thenIanB2 said:Richmond Remain = 69%
Kingston Remain = 62%0 -
Spanish, British and Qatari last time I looked. Ferrovial are looking to sell up or list Heathrow as soon as the runway building commences according to the rumour mongers, so it could return to the LSE as a "British" company.SandyRentool said:British Airways has more LHR slots than it knows what to do with. They don't have enough wide bodied aircraft to use their existing slots effectively and have to resort to 'slot sitting' with pointless flights to Leeds, Rotterdam, etc.
LHR just means more profits for the Spanish owners of the airport and more slots for the Middle East 3, US and Asian carriers, with increased noise, pollution and disruption in West and South West London.
On this, as well as Brexit, I agree with Zac.0 -
Local politics.0
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Bold of you to put this out before Zac's position is clear. Well done.shadsy said:Ladbrokes:
4/6 Zac
6/4 LD
8 Cons (not Zac)0 -
I don't see why he can't be - he isn't a minister and he agrees with most other policy.Tissue_Price said:
But not vs a Tory as well, surely?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think he'd win either way.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he loses as a conservative, and wins as an independent.Richard_Nabavi said:It is very unlikely indeed that the local Conservative association will want to field a candidate against Zac, or that they would choose any candidate who wasn't 100% opposed to the new runway. The choice is not just up to CCHQ, and it would be a declaration of war to try to impose a candidate. The political logic therefore points towards either Zac standing again as a Conservative, or him being unopposed by the Conservatives.
The Government simply can't refuse to put up a candidate in a mainland by-election, imo [exceptions like Jo Cox notwithstanding]. Especially one called over Government policy. They would be open to well-deserved ridicule. So the question is whether Zac can be the Tory candidate or not, in the circumstances.
If he wins he has a direct mandate to oppose LHR.
0 -
He has been a really good campaigner in Richmond.Jonathan said:As we saw in the mayoral race Zac is an excellent campaigner. Oh hang on, no! The opposite of that. Zac could lose this.
LD choice is important.0 -
I think 6-4 is generous.
Am on !0 -
A la DavisTGOHF said:
I don't see why he can't be - he isn't a minister and he agrees with most other policy.Tissue_Price said:
But not vs a Tory as well, surely?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think he'd win either way.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he loses as a conservative, and wins as an independent.Richard_Nabavi said:It is very unlikely indeed that the local Conservative association will want to field a candidate against Zac, or that they would choose any candidate who wasn't 100% opposed to the new runway. The choice is not just up to CCHQ, and it would be a declaration of war to try to impose a candidate. The political logic therefore points towards either Zac standing again as a Conservative, or him being unopposed by the Conservatives.
The Government simply can't refuse to put up a candidate in a mainland by-election, imo [exceptions like Jo Cox notwithstanding]. Especially one called over Government policy. They would be open to well-deserved ridicule. So the question is whether Zac can be the Tory candidate or not, in the circumstances.
If he wins he has a direct mandate to oppose LHR.0 -
So will we see Sadiq Khan campaigning for Zac in Richmond - I mean he's anti LHR isn't he ?
0 -
If there's a Tory candidate opposing him, it would depend who it is and their stance on LHR. I think he might still win.Tissue_Price said:But not vs a Tory as well, surely?
The Government simply can't refuse to put up a candidate in a mainland by-election, imo [exceptions like Jo Cox notwithstanding]. Especially one called over Government policy. They would be open to well-deserved ridicule. So the question is whether Zac can be the Tory candidate or not, in the circumstances.0 -
There's precedent for him to stand again as a Tory - David Davis in the Haltemprice by-election. Zac actually has better grounds - he told the voters he would stand on the Tory Manifesto, but also a personal manifesto of opposing Heathrow expansion. Now he is asking the voters whether they still have the desire for him to represent them, given he has not been unsuccesful in one of the planks they voted him in as their MP.
He is still a Tory and nothing else has changed.0 -
National Tracker - Langer Research/ABC - Sample 1,155 - 20-23 Oct
Clinton 53 .. Trump 41
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/stressed-election-youve-company-poll/story?id=430242090 -
It's a very odd situation as ALL candidates will presumably be opposed to Heathrow expansion, and none of them will get their way. This will turn, firstly on whether the Tories stand and, secondly, whether the Lib Dems can shift the debate to things like Remain (this being one of the strongest Remain constituencies in the country).
I suspect the Tories won't stand, labeling it a "distraction" and that Goldsmith will justify Shadsy's odds. If they do, however, the Lib Dems are very much in it.0 -
Yes, exactly. It can be spun as asking for a renewed mandate to oppose LHR expansion but support the government in everything else. Of course, that assumes that he wants to play it that way and the party agrees.MarqueeMark said:There's precedent for him to stand again as a Tory - David Davis in the Haltemprice by-election. Zac actually has better grounds - he told the voters he would stand on the Tory Manifesto, but also a personal manifesto of opposing Heathrow expansion. Now he is asking the voters whether they still have the desire for him to represent them, given he has not been unsuccesful in one of the planks they voted him in as their MP.
He is still a Tory and nothing else has changed.0 -
Totally agree - I've lumped on the Yellow Team too!Pulpstar said:I think 6-4 is generous.
Am on !
DYOR ..... this is a tricky one to call.0 -
I'm somewhat at odds with party policy in that I'm in favour of expanded capacity at Heathrow. Nationally speaking I don't think we need more capacity, but we have too many small regional airports that could be better shifted onto trains etc.GIN1138 said:
I don't think the Lib's mind expanding railways (and bus/cycle lanes?) they are just opposed to plane and road expansion because of climate change?Patrick said:
Erm....no. I'm saying this is a good and sensible decision and the self interested bleating will not be broadly well received. I also think the LibDems setting themselves up as a party of modern Luddites opposed to any capacity expansion in a modern world is effing loopy.williamglenn said:
Are you calling on Marcus Jones to resign his seat so we can ask them?Patrick said:
The by election will be a verdict on what rich, metropolitan, lefty, Nimby elites in a leafy part of London think about Brexit and the potential impact on the value of their multi-million pound houses. Not a lot I expect. Ask what people in Nuneaton think.Barnesian said:
The by election will be a verdict on the Government (Brexit and Heathrow expansion) not on Zac.MP_SE said:
Goldsmith has tirelessly campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow and his Eurosceptic views have been known about for years. If anything the Tory party has failed the residents of Richmond but Goldsmith certainly hasn't.GIN1138 said:
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.0 -
Interesting to see disagreement [on betting matters] among some of pb's Big Beasts...0
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Loopy indeed. Cars and planes are getting significantly more efficient. If we had some decent energy policy we'd also be getting significantly cheaper electricity - which would enable a big electrification of cars (which current progress on storage will also enable).GIN1138 said:
I don't think the Lib's mind expanding railways (and bus/cycle lanes?) they are just opposed to plane and road expansion because of climate change?Patrick said:
Erm....no. I'm saying this is a good and sensible decision and the self interested bleating will not be broadly well received. I also think the LibDems setting themselves up as a party of modern Luddites opposed to any capacity expansion in a modern world is effing loopy.williamglenn said:
Are you calling on Marcus Jones to resign his seat so we can ask them?Patrick said:
The by election will be a verdict on what rich, metropolitan, lefty, Nimby elites in a leafy part of London think about Brexit and the potential impact on the value of their multi-million pound houses. Not a lot I expect. Ask what people in Nuneaton think.Barnesian said:
The by election will be a verdict on the Government (Brexit and Heathrow expansion) not on Zac.MP_SE said:
Goldsmith has tirelessly campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow and his Eurosceptic views have been known about for years. If anything the Tory party has failed the residents of Richmond but Goldsmith certainly hasn't.GIN1138 said:
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.
If the LibDems were serious about carbon they'd advocate that we stop burying hydrocarbons in landfill in vast quantities (whilst simultaneously digging them out of the ground) and instead use the enormous massflow of waste to build large municipal waste / power facilities. Would make a much larger impact on CO2 than fiddling at the margins with aeroplane emissions.
0 -
Who launches a tracker poll with two weeks to go and a big D+ sample? It's laughable PR masquerading as hard news. ABC and NBC have ruined their credibility at this election.JackW said:National Tracker - Langer Research/ABC - Sample 1,155 - 20-23 Oct
Clinton 53 .. Trump 41
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/stressed-election-youve-company-poll/story?id=43024209
IIRC Reagan was +10, who believes the entire US goes +12 for Hillary?0 -
It is a bet where my head and heart are firmly in alignment. Alot of people reckon this sort of bet should be avoided, but that's not actually technically correct.peter_from_putney said:
Totally agree - I've lumped on the Yellow Team too!Pulpstar said:I think 6-4 is generous.
Am on !
DYOR ..... this is a tricky one to call.
I'm also in favour of Heathrow expansion, just to add that to the pot
0 -
Yes, absolutely. But it also needs to be said in no uncertain terms that if he stands as an Indy he'll be expelled from the party and have a Conservative candidate stood against him.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, exactly. It can be spun as asking for a renewed mandate to oppose LHR expansion but support the government in everything else. Of course, that assumes that he wants to play it that way and the party agrees.MarqueeMark said:There's precedent for him to stand again as a Tory - David Davis in the Haltemprice by-election. Zac actually has better grounds - he told the voters he would stand on the Tory Manifesto, but also a personal manifesto of opposing Heathrow expansion. Now he is asking the voters whether they still have the desire for him to represent them, given he has not been unsuccesful in one of the planks they voted him in as their MP.
He is still a Tory and nothing else has changed.0 -
He also promised to plant zillions of trees.TGOHF said:So will we see Sadiq Khan campaigning for Zac in Richmond - I mean he's anti LHR isn't he ?
0 -
Sorry if this has already been posted, but there's an interesting discussion by Nate Silver of why his model is still giving Trump a 15% chance of winning, in contrast to others which are giving him only between 1% and 8% [though Betfair seems to think the right answer is 16%]:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/?ex_cid=2016-forecast0 -
Tories should ask Rory Stewart if he would like to move to a London constituency, I am sure he would go down very nicely in Richmond, shame his own seat is so safeTissue_Price said:
But not vs a Tory as well, surely?Richard_Nabavi said:
I think he'd win either way.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he loses as a conservative, and wins as an independent.Richard_Nabavi said:It is very unlikely indeed that the local Conservative association will want to field a candidate against Zac, or that they would choose any candidate who wasn't 100% opposed to the new runway. The choice is not just up to CCHQ, and it would be a declaration of war to try to impose a candidate. The political logic therefore points towards either Zac standing again as a Conservative, or him being unopposed by the Conservatives.
The Government simply can't refuse to put up a candidate in a mainland by-election, imo [exceptions like Jo Cox notwithstanding]. Especially one called over Government policy. They would be open to well-deserved ridicule. So the question is whether Zac can be the Tory candidate or not, in the circumstances.
0 -
By the time Heathrow3 comes into service we will have driverless cars in use ferrying us to whatever airport is required at a fraction of the current taxi cost.corporeal said:
I'm somewhat at odds with party policy in that I'm in favour of expanded capacity at Heathrow. Nationally speaking I don't think we need more capacity, but we have too many small regional airports that could be better shifted onto trains etc.GIN1138 said:
I don't think the Lib's mind expanding railways (and bus/cycle lanes?) they are just opposed to plane and road expansion because of climate change?Patrick said:
Erm....no. I'm saying this is a good and sensible decision and the self interested bleating will not be broadly well received. I also think the LibDems setting themselves up as a party of modern Luddites opposed to any capacity expansion in a modern world is effing loopy.williamglenn said:
Are you calling on Marcus Jones to resign his seat so we can ask them?Patrick said:
The by election will be a verdict on what rich, metropolitan, lefty, Nimby elites in a leafy part of London think about Brexit and the potential impact on the value of their multi-million pound houses. Not a lot I expect. Ask what people in Nuneaton think.Barnesian said:
The by election will be a verdict on the Government (Brexit and Heathrow expansion) not on Zac.MP_SE said:
Goldsmith has tirelessly campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow and his Eurosceptic views have been known about for years. If anything the Tory party has failed the residents of Richmond but Goldsmith certainly hasn't.GIN1138 said:
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.
0 -
Maybe he should pay for the costs of the election. He can afford it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, exactly. It can be spun as asking for a renewed mandate to oppose LHR expansion but support the government in everything else. Of course, that assumes that he wants to play it that way and the party agrees.MarqueeMark said:There's precedent for him to stand again as a Tory - David Davis in the Haltemprice by-election. Zac actually has better grounds - he told the voters he would stand on the Tory Manifesto, but also a personal manifesto of opposing Heathrow expansion. Now he is asking the voters whether they still have the desire for him to represent them, given he has not been unsuccesful in one of the planks they voted him in as their MP.
He is still a Tory and nothing else has changed.0 -
If any markets open before we know of Zac's intention, laying the LDs would surely make the most sense....
DYOR.0 -
So they'd only run public transport at peak hours then? Because busses with three people on are so environmently friendly.GIN1138 said:
I don't think the Lib's mind expanding railways (and bus/cycle lanes?) they are just opposed to plane and road expansion because of climate change?Patrick said:
Erm....no. I'm saying this is a good and sensible decision and the self interested bleating will not be broadly well received. I also think the LibDems setting themselves up as a party of modern Luddites opposed to any capacity expansion in a modern world is effing loopy.williamglenn said:
Are you calling on Marcus Jones to resign his seat so we can ask them?Patrick said:
The by election will be a verdict on what rich, metropolitan, lefty, Nimby elites in a leafy part of London think about Brexit and the potential impact on the value of their multi-million pound houses. Not a lot I expect. Ask what people in Nuneaton think.Barnesian said:
The by election will be a verdict on the Government (Brexit and Heathrow expansion) not on Zac.MP_SE said:
Goldsmith has tirelessly campaigned against the expansion of Heathrow and his Eurosceptic views have been known about for years. If anything the Tory party has failed the residents of Richmond but Goldsmith certainly hasn't.GIN1138 said:
What's wrong with that? Looks like good politics to me... Zak is giving the Lib-Dems an open goal to pull off a spectacular.MP_SE said:Farron comes across as a complete tosser. I have seen better politics back in my JCR days.
Harry Cole
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
And so it begins. @timfarron says "@ZacGoldsmith has failed Richmond Park on Heathrow and betrayed them on Brexit."
25 Oct 2016, 11:59 am
He'll be out on his ear, the Lib's will have a ninth MP and the third runway will be built anyway.
Like I said. He's a fool. The only plus side is that the Tories will have one less "loose cannon" to worry about.0 -
I think we'll have to wait for the result to see who has ruined their credibility. ;-)PlatoSaid said:
Who launches a tracker poll with two weeks to go and a big D+ sample? It's laughable PR masquerading as hard news. ABC and NBC have ruined their credibility at this election.JackW said:National Tracker - Langer Research/ABC - Sample 1,155 - 20-23 Oct
Clinton 53 .. Trump 41
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/stressed-election-youve-company-poll/story?id=430242090 -
Just about all UK energy policy is fiddling at the margins for effect, in global terms we are less than a rounding error, completely dwarfed by even single components of other countries energy policies. Its just large and expensive virtue signalling.Patrick said:Loopy indeed. Cars and planes are getting significantly more efficient. If we had some decent energy policy we'd also be getting significantly cheaper electricity - which would enable a big electrification of cars (which current progress on storage will also enable).
If the LibDems were serious about carbon they'd advocate that we stop burying hydrocarbons in landfill in vast quantities (whilst simultaneously digging them out of the ground) and instead use the enormous massflow of waste to build large municipal waste / power facilities. Would make a much larger impact on CO2 than fiddling at the margins with aeroplane emissions.
I'll get my coat now 0 -
Miss @PlatoSaid, your link on the last thread from that darling of the liberal left Michael Moore, about what is driving Trump's support, is very powerful indeed.
There's a whole load of Middle America who have literally nothing left to lose.
The election's not over yet.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JaredWyand/status/790707670776811522 (NSFW audio)0 -
There's a chunk of habitual Republican voters who identify as independents, so demographically balanced samples will have significantly more Democrats than Republicans. On top of that, Trump isn't universally popular among GOP supporters, some of whom are telling pollsters they're going to sit this one out.PlatoSaid said:
Who launches a tracker poll with two weeks to go and a big D+ sample? It's laughable PR masquerading as hard news. ABC and NBC have ruined their credibility at this election.JackW said:National Tracker - Langer Research/ABC - Sample 1,155 - 20-23 Oct
Clinton 53 .. Trump 41
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/stressed-election-youve-company-poll/story?id=43024209
IIRC Reagan was +10, who believes the entire US goes +12 for Hillary?0 -
Will Labour also field a nimby to fight Heathrow expansion?
They have some form in West London.
http://www.john-mcdonnell.net/third_runway_campaign0 -
http://www.pewresearch.org/data-trend/political-attitudes/party-identification/PlatoSaid said:
Who launches a tracker poll with two weeks to go and a big D+ sample? It's laughable PR masquerading as hard news. ABC and NBC have ruined their credibility at this election.JackW said:National Tracker - Langer Research/ABC - Sample 1,155 - 20-23 Oct
Clinton 53 .. Trump 41
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/stressed-election-youve-company-poll/story?id=43024209
IIRC Reagan was +10, who believes the entire US goes +12 for Hillary?0 -
Dont you know its a plot by the MSM and Clinton to make it look like she is winningedmundintokyo said:
There's a chunk of habitual Republican voters who identify as independents, so demographically balanced samples will have significantly more Democrats than Republicans. On top of that, Trump isn't universally popular among GOP supporters, some of whom are telling pollsters they're going to sit this one out.PlatoSaid said:
Who launches a tracker poll with two weeks to go and a big D+ sample? It's laughable PR masquerading as hard news. ABC and NBC have ruined their credibility at this election.JackW said:National Tracker - Langer Research/ABC - Sample 1,155 - 20-23 Oct
Clinton 53 .. Trump 41
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/stressed-election-youve-company-poll/story?id=43024209
IIRC Reagan was +10, who believes the entire US goes +12 for Hillary?
OPEN YOUR EYES SHEEPLE0
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