politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest UKIP leader betting and some of the controversial Tweet

System · October 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest UKIP leader betting and some of the controversial Tweets

Latest next UKIP leader betting pic.twitter.com/HwvENpoqov

Theuniondivvie · October 2016

Just a normal evening on PB surely?
Though I can see that might not be a great look for a potential leader of a serious (titter) party.

TheScreamingEagles · October 2016

After the England soccer manager, can the Telegraph investigations team topple the Donald?

https://twitter.com/h_alexander/status/790641823995879424

Richard_Tyndall · October 2016

In all serious, once Brexit is achieved can someone please explain to me what the point of UKIP actually is?

Indigo · October 2016

She might be better than Trump, but it doesnt stop you feeling the need to wash your hands after every new story.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/clinton-ally-aids-campaign-of-fbi-officials-wife-1477266114

The political organization of Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, an influential Democrat with longstanding ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton, gave nearly $500,000 to the election campaign of the wife of an official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation who later helped oversee the investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email use.

Sandpit · October 2016

First in the new thread!

IanB2 · October 2016

Sandpit said:
First in the new thread!

That is just sad.

Pong · October 2016

FPT;

In my not-very-well-informed opinion, a second runway at birmingham and linking HS2 into heathrow would solve the capacity problem.

Treat BHX, LHR and MAN as an integrated airport with HS2 providing airside transfers.

Sandpit · October 2016

Indigo said:
She might be better than Trump, but it doesnt stop you feeling the need to wash your hands after every new story.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/clinton-ally-aids-campaign-of-fbi-officials-wife-1477266114

The political organization of Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, an influential Democrat with longstanding ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton, gave nearly $500,000 to the election campaign of the wife of an official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation who later helped oversee the investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email use.

Blah blah blah Russia, blah blah blah Putin wants Trump, blah blah blah blah blah.

If I had a vote I'd probably go with Johnson, but I'd vote for the brash but ultimately benign Trump over the candidate that epitomises everything wrong with politics in the USA.

Morris_Dancer · October 2016

Sounds like a charmer.

I'm not a Sturgeon fan especially (I think she's competent but also has a vested interest in discord), but that tweet's rancid.

Sandpit · October 2016

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:
First in the new thread!
That is just sad.

You must be new here, look at the start of every thread

Morris_Dancer · October 2016

More importantly, I've finished the main campaign of Rise of the Tomb Raider. It really is a very good game. Not tried the extra modes, yet, but it's well worth getting.

Edited extra bit: and the toys you get at the end of the main campaign are fantastic.

IanB2 · October 2016

Pong said:
FPT;

In my not-very-well-informed opinion, a second runway at birmingham and linking HS2 into heathrow would solve the capacity problem.

Treat BHX, LHR and MAN as an integrated airport with HS2 providing airside transfers.

London to Manchester as a transfer?.? In your dreams, HS2 or not! Such a plan would require the invention of teleportation, in which eventuality the extra runway would be superfluous.

IanB2 · October 2016

Sandpit said:

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:
First in the new thread!
That is just sad.
You must be new here, look at the start of every thread

But this time the first posters to see it earned their podium places when it was originally put up. You are just a shameless imposter!

[Deleted User] · October 2016

Pong

So New York to Dubai would be something like JFK-LHR, get a train to Birmingham, BHX -Dub! Luggage lost in Milton Keynes I suppose. The whole point of hubs and why airlines and passengers like them is that you walk off the jetway, collapse into Starbucks, chill for a 30 mins or an hour and then walk down another jetway for your connecting flight, reasonably confident that the ground crew has moved your luggage from one plane to another one round the corner.

dr_spyn · October 2016

Heart of edstone...

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/electoral-commission-gives-labour-biggest-9119093

Ridicule, wtf on pb & elsewhere, leading to a fine. What a great PR disaster.

rcs1000 · October 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:
In all serious, once Brexit is achieved can someone please explain to me what the point of UKIP actually is?

To prevent people like this from joining the Conservative Party.

rcs1000 · October 2016

Pong said:
FPT;

In my not-very-well-informed opinion, a second runway at birmingham and linking HS2 into heathrow would solve the capacity problem.

Treat BHX, LHR and MAN as an integrated airport with HS2 providing airside transfers.

That doesn't really work, because HS2 is not going to have stops at the individual Terminals in Heathrow, and shuttling people to another station (Airside) and then onto a special Airside carriage, and then transporting them Airside again at Birmingham is far too complex.

SimonStClare · October 2016

Bill Etheridge has pulled out of the UKIP leadership race and has endorsed Paul Nuttall.

The final choice is likely to be between Nuttall and Evens with the former edging it, imho.

Sandpit · October 2016

Pong said:
FPT;

In my not-very-well-informed opinion, a second runway at birmingham and linking HS2 into heathrow would solve the capacity problem.

Treat BHX, LHR and MAN as an integrated airport with HS2 providing airside transfers.

Good idea in theory, but in practice keeping things airside is a logistical nightmare. Would need to be whole airside trains, with armed guards and a lot of protocol for evacuation in an emergency - probably involving helicopters every few dozen miles along the route on permanent standby. As well as giving every idiot a reason to try and stop the train.

Essexit · October 2016

IanB2 said:

Pong said:
FPT;

In my not-very-well-informed opinion, a second runway at birmingham and linking HS2 into heathrow would solve the capacity problem.

Treat BHX, LHR and MAN as an integrated airport with HS2 providing airside transfers.
London to Manchester as a transfer?.? In your dreams, HS2 or not! Such a plan would require the invention of teleportation, in which eventuality the extra runway would be superfluous.

Or Hyperloop trains - though they would solve the expansion problem by eliminating the need for most domestic flights.

Morris_Dancer · October 2016

Mr. StClare, can they work together? If so, maybe they can keep the show on the road.

IanB2 · October 2016

SimonStClare said:
Bill Etheridge has pulled out of the UKIP leadership race and has endorsed Paul Nuttall.

The final choice is likely to be between Nuttall and Evens with the former edging it, imho.

If Nuttall is acceptable to Farage and Banks (who have all the strings) then he is nailed on, given their hostility to Evans. However I am not convinced Nuttall himself is in their good book.

david_kendrick1 · October 2016

The most successful single issue party of the generation is achieving its objective.

What next? There is no overarching target in sight. Could a series of smaller issues build into a cogent political philosophy, distinct from the other parties? The LDs still survive, so it is definitely possible.

Roger · October 2016

Reading the above tweets it's got to be KASSIM. The zeitgeist is with him.

The good news is that if Trump loses there's a new 'Il Duce' for Jenny Freeman Plato and Moniker de Canio to adulate.

Sandpit · October 2016

Patrick said:
Pong

So New York to Dubai would be something like JFK-LHR, get a train to Birmingham, BHX -Dub! Luggage lost in Milton Keynes I suppose. The whole point of hubs and why airlines and passengers like them is that you walk off the jetway, collapse into Starbucks, chill for a 30 mins or an hour and then walk down another jetway for your connecting flight, reasonably confident that the ground crew has moved your luggage from one plane to another one round the corner.

Alternatively, Emirates will fly you directly from New York to Dubai on a brand new A380, most probably for less time and money than the indirect route with the massive security it would need.

Scott_P · October 2016

@Maomentum_: Highly suspicious that Tory election fraud more successful than Labour election fraud. Appallingly biased system.

Sandpit · October 2016

Essexit said:

IanB2 said:

Pong said:
FPT;

In my not-very-well-informed opinion, a second runway at birmingham and linking HS2 into heathrow would solve the capacity problem.

Treat BHX, LHR and MAN as an integrated airport with HS2 providing airside transfers.
London to Manchester as a transfer?.? In your dreams, HS2 or not! Such a plan would require the invention of teleportation, in which eventuality the extra runway would be superfluous.
Or Hyperloop trains - though they would solve the expansion problem by eliminating the need for most domestic flights.

Standing by for Mr Jessop in 3,2,1...

Moses_ · October 2016

Scott_P said:
@Maomentum_: Highly suspicious that Tory election fraud more successful than Labour election fraud. Appallingly biased system.

Perhaps they should have been more subtle. I mean running around in a great big pink bus* was bound to attract the wrong sort of attention.

* pink bus was also subject to this investigation I believe.

nunu · October 2016

Theuniondivvie said:
Just a normal evening on PB surely?
Though I can see that might not be a great look for a potential leader of a serious (titter) party.

At least they achieved their raison d'etre.

Morris_Dancer · October 2016

Mr. B2, he may benefit from being Not-Evans.

HYUFD · October 2016

Bill Etheridge has withdrawn and backed Nuttall. It is hard to see past him really, while Evans is the candidate of the Carswell and Hamilton faction and Kassam is the candidate of the Farage and Banks faction, Nuttall is the only candidate who can just about be acceptable to both and avoid the party splitting. He also is probably the candidate most likely to appeal to the white working class

Morris_Dancer · October 2016

Mr. HYUFD, indeed. Saw him on the box yesterday. He might as well have 'white working class' stamped on his forehead. I suspect he could do well, particularly in the north.

SquareRoot · October 2016

They don't like friendly donkeys either.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ukip-leadership-candidate-admits-mistake-of-claiming-gay-donkey-raped-his-horse/ar-AAjkH8e?li=AA59G2&ocid=spartandhp

IanB2 · October 2016

Sandpit said:

Essexit said:

IanB2 said:

Pong said:
FPT;

In my not-very-well-informed opinion, a second runway at birmingham and linking HS2 into heathrow would solve the capacity problem.

Treat BHX, LHR and MAN as an integrated airport with HS2 providing airside transfers.
London to Manchester as a transfer?.? In your dreams, HS2 or not! Such a plan would require the invention of teleportation, in which eventuality the extra runway would be superfluous.
Or Hyperloop trains - though they would solve the expansion problem by eliminating the need for most domestic flights.
Standing by for Mr Jessop in 3,2,1...

Leaves in the air cushion?

dr_spyn · October 2016

A record fine, overweight Ed Stone, not such a cunning stunt.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37760562

Morris_Dancer · October 2016

Dr. Spyn, impressive to find a way to make the Ed Stone even more contemptible.

SimonStClare · October 2016

dr_spyn said:
A record fine, overweight Ed Stone, not such a cunning stunt.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37760562

"The 8ft "Ed Stone", carved with ex-leader Ed Miliband's key pledges, was among £123,748 of payments missing from Labour's 2015 election return."

As electoral PR disasters go, the Ed Stone was worth its weight in gold.

IanB2 · October 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. B2, he may benefit from being Not-Evans.

Well Betfair has made its mind up, with Nuttall odds on (1.3) with everyone else at 6-1 or longer. Question is whether laying Nuttall has value. Normally Farage and Banks backing someone else would give the 1.4 lay bet tremendous value, but Kassam doesn't look like a reliable horse to me.

Moses_ · October 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Dr. Spyn, impressive to find a way to make the Ed Stone even more contemptible.

Amazing to think had things gone differently this Edstone could have been parked outside No10 now.

#whatthefeckwereLabourthinking

Roger · October 2016

dr_spyn said:
A record fine, overweight Ed Stone, not such a cunning stunt.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37760562

It should be charged against the Tories election expenses.

MaxPB · October 2016

Roger said:

dr_spyn said:
A record fine, overweight Ed Stone, not such a cunning stunt.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37760562
It should be charged against the Tories election expenses.

Indigo · October 2016

IanB2 said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. B2, he may benefit from being Not-Evans.
Well Betfair has made its mind up, with Nuttall odds on (1.3) with everyone else at 6-1 or longer. Question is whether laying Nuttall has value. Normally Farage and Banks backing someone else would give the 1.4 lay bet tremendous value, but Kassam doesn't look like a reliable horse to me.

He appears well versed in Arkell v Pressdram Ltd

https://twitter.com/RaheemKassam/status/790692095321341952

Morris_Dancer · October 2016

Mr. Moses, more incredible yet to consider this is the golden age for Labour compared to the present.

Mr. B2, indeed. However, I wonder how many UKIP members will have let their subscriptions slip after the EU referendum vote. That will alter the electorate.

CarlottaVance · October 2016

If this analysis is correct - there won't beed much need for a UKIP post-Brexit (apart from a repository for people the Tories would rather not have...):

So we will be out of both the Customs Union and the Single Market.

http://brexitcentral.com/ruth-lea-theresa-may-brexit-britain-will-clearly-leaving-single-market-customs-union/

Moses_ · October 2016

SimonStClare said:

dr_spyn said:
A record fine, overweight Ed Stone, not such a cunning stunt.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37760562
"The 8ft "Ed Stone", carved with ex-leader Ed Miliband's key pledges, was among £123,748 of payments missing from Labour's 2015 election return."

As electoral PR disasters go, the Ed Stone was worth its weight in gold.

Toss up really between Edstone and the Elvis impersonator. On balance Edstone edges it as a gift that really, really does keep on giving.

JackW · October 2016

Good news for Alistair ....

Mike Pence to campaign in Utah tomorrow in an attempt to shore up Trump's position against a two pronged attack from Clinton and McMillin :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/mike-pence-utah-republicans-mcmullin-230273

Sandpit · October 2016

Indigo said:

IanB2 said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. B2, he may benefit from being Not-Evans.
Well Betfair has made its mind up, with Nuttall odds on (1.3) with everyone else at 6-1 or longer. Question is whether laying Nuttall has value. Normally Farage and Banks backing someone else would give the 1.4 lay bet tremendous value, but Kassam doesn't look like a reliable horse to me.
He appears well versed in Arkell v Pressdram Ltd

https://twitter.com/RaheemKassam/status/790692095321341952

This Mr Kassam makes Donald Trump appear to be a mild mannered Conservative.

Essexit · October 2016

As this is a FPTP election, Kassam could sneak in if moderates are split between the other two.

TGOHF · October 2016

re earlier Sweden chat - seems they are first to do the sums on trade tariffs...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/24/sweden-holds-out-olive-branch-to-brexit-britain/

"“ We’re an open country and we are in favour of free trade, and we want to see a solution that is as beneficial as possible for everybody,” said Magdalena Andersson, the Swedish finance minister."

"The olive branch from Stockholm reflects the shared view of the Nordic bloc that there is nothing to be gained from a fractious divorce between Britain and the EU. "

"There are over 1,000 Swedish companies operating in Britain, employing 100,000 people, from Saab, Scania, and Electrolux, to Skype and Ericsson, to Ikea and H&M. “They’re worried about potential trade barriers and tariffs, and about the Swedish personnel,” said Ms Andersson.

“A weak British pound affects Swedish exports companies, and that could of course affect the Swedish economy,” she said. Britain is the country’s third biggest foreign market."

rcs1000 · October 2016

TGOHF said:
re earlier Sweden chat - seems they are first to do the sums on trade tariffs...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/24/sweden-holds-out-olive-branch-to-brexit-britain/

"“ We’re an open country and we are in favour of free trade, and we want to see a solution that is as beneficial as possible for everybody,” said Magdalena Andersson, the Swedish finance minister."

"The olive branch from Stockholm reflects the shared view of the Nordic bloc that there is nothing to be gained from a fractious divorce between Britain and the EU. "

"There are over 1,000 Swedish companies operating in Britain, employing 100,000 people, from Saab, Scania, and Electrolux, to Skype and Ericsson, to Ikea and H&M. “They’re worried about potential trade barriers and tariffs, and about the Swedish personnel,” said Ms Andersson.

“A weak British pound affects Swedish exports companies, and that could of course affect the Swedish economy,” she said. Britain is the country’s third biggest foreign market."

Sweden and Germany are probably the most exposed countries to weak UK investment demand, as both economies are dominated by capital goods companies. If people start investing in new capacity in the UK, to take advantage of the weak pound, it will be to the benefit of Siemens, ABB, etc.

Pong · October 2016

Sandpit said:

Patrick said:
Pong

So New York to Dubai would be something like JFK-LHR, get a train to Birmingham, BHX -Dub! Luggage lost in Milton Keynes I suppose. The whole point of hubs and why airlines and passengers like them is that you walk off the jetway, collapse into Starbucks, chill for a 30 mins or an hour and then walk down another jetway for your connecting flight, reasonably confident that the ground crew has moved your luggage from one plane to another one round the corner.
Alternatively, Emirates will fly you directly from New York to Dubai on a brand new A380, most probably for less time and money than the indirect route with the massive security it would need.

Yes - that's the reality. London can't compete for those passengers like it did in the past.

A decentralised hybrid hub/point-to-point airport with very elastic capacity, huge redundancy and serving a much larger population is the way forward.

Airside transfers between LHR/BHX or BHX/MAN on HS2 would take half an hour.

The logistics aren't crazy at all.

Indigo · October 2016

Essexit said:
As this is a FPTP election, Kassam could sneak in if moderates are split between the other two.

More to the point he appears to be Farage and Banks' preference, and they control the heart and wallet of the party respectively. He certainly has the "strident" and "abrasive" vote sewn up.

RobD · October 2016

Indigo said:

Essexit said:
As this is a FPTP election, Kassam could sneak in if moderates are split between the other two.
More to the point he appears to be Farage and Banks' preference, and they control the heart and wallet of the party respectively. He certainly has the "strident" and "abrasive" vote sewn up.

I think UKIP would be royally clucked (ahem) if he's elected.

IanB2 · October 2016

Moses_ said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Dr. Spyn, impressive to find a way to make the Ed Stone even more contemptible.
Amazing to think had things gone differently this Edstone could have been parked outside No10 now.

#whatthefeckwereLabourthinking

The day prior may come to have been the last for a generation on which majority labour government was actually conceivable.

IanB2 · October 2016

Essexit said:
As this is a FPTP election, Kassam could sneak in if moderates are split between the other two.

Quelle 'moderates'?

dr_spyn · October 2016

Roger said:

dr_spyn said:
A record fine, overweight Ed Stone, not such a cunning stunt.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37760562
It should be charged against the Tories election expenses.

+1.

A PR man (or woman) will be keeping his (or her) head down today or quietly removing mention of the Edstone from a CV.

It was a fine example of monumental PR mistake, a cunning political stunt which backfired.

Morris_Dancer · October 2016

Impressive. Unless I missed it (bit sleepy, so entirely possible) there's a piece here about women drinking almost as much as men which manages to not mention once that women have a lower alcohol tolerance:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-37751132

Probably the most important fact when it comes to gender and alcohol consumption. One also ignored by the bullshit advice advocated (I think) by the chief medical and puritanism officer who wants equal legal drinking guidelines for the genders.

FluffyThoughts · October 2016

Richard_Tyndall said:
In all serious, once Brexit is achieved can someone please explain to me what the point of UKIP actually is?

An evolution into somethink better than the current crud that forms HMG's opposition?

Morris_Dancer · October 2016

Dr. Spyn, wasn't it Torsten someone or other?

JackW · October 2016

National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 3,104 - 25 Oct

Clinton 45.0 .. Trump 44.1

http://www.latimes.com/politics/

dr_spyn · October 2016

When will Goldsmith go in search of The Chiltern's Hundreds? https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/790832030540005376

matt · October 2016

Essexit said:

IanB2 said:

Pong said:
FPT;

In my not-very-well-informed opinion, a second runway at birmingham and linking HS2 into heathrow would solve the capacity problem.

Treat BHX, LHR and MAN as an integrated airport with HS2 providing airside transfers.
London to Manchester as a transfer?.? In your dreams, HS2 or not! Such a plan would require the invention of teleportation, in which eventuality the extra runway would be superfluous.
Or Hyperloop trains - though they would solve the expansion problem by eliminating the need for most domestic flights.

Which will come first though, Hyperloop or personal teleportation?

Sandpit · October 2016

Pong said:

Sandpit said:

Patrick said:
Pong

So New York to Dubai would be something like JFK-LHR, get a train to Birmingham, BHX -Dub! Luggage lost in Milton Keynes I suppose. The whole point of hubs and why airlines and passengers like them is that you walk off the jetway, collapse into Starbucks, chill for a 30 mins or an hour and then walk down another jetway for your connecting flight, reasonably confident that the ground crew has moved your luggage from one plane to another one round the corner.
Alternatively, Emirates will fly you directly from New York to Dubai on a brand new A380, most probably for less time and money than the indirect route with the massive security it would need.
Yes - that's the reality. London can't compete for those passengers like it did in the past.

A decentralised hybrid hub/point-to-point airport with very elastic capacity, huge redundancy and serving a much larger population is the way forward.

Airside transfers between LHR/BHX or BHX/MAN on HS2 would take half an hour.

The logistics aren't crazy at all.

It's the logistics of a train full of people who haven't cleared immigration and customs that's the difficult bit.

Alistair · October 2016

JackW said:
Good news for Alistair ....

Mike Pence to campaign in Utah tomorrow in an attempt to shore up Trump's position against a two pronged attack from Clinton and McMillin :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/mike-pence-utah-republicans-mcmullin-230273

If 2 years ago you had told me the Rep VP would be doing a camapign stop in Utah to shore up support I would have called you a madman.

The question is: McMullin is close to evens on betfair, do I lay off my bet or let it ride?

Is only a tenner, it is going all the way to the finish line.

JosiasJessop · October 2016

Pong said:

Sandpit said:

Patrick said:
Pong

So New York to Dubai would be something like JFK-LHR, get a train to Birmingham, BHX -Dub! Luggage lost in Milton Keynes I suppose. The whole point of hubs and why airlines and passengers like them is that you walk off the jetway, collapse into Starbucks, chill for a 30 mins or an hour and then walk down another jetway for your connecting flight, reasonably confident that the ground crew has moved your luggage from one plane to another one round the corner.
Alternatively, Emirates will fly you directly from New York to Dubai on a brand new A380, most probably for less time and money than the indirect route with the massive security it would need.
Yes - that's the reality. London can't compete for those passengers like it did in the past.

A decentralised hybrid hub/point-to-point airport with very elastic capacity, huge redundancy and serving a much larger population is the way forward.

Airside transfers between LHR/BHX or BHX/MAN on HS2 would take half an hour.

The logistics aren't crazy at all.

From memory, this was sort of distributed hub was looked into by the AC initial report (mainly by Gatwick/Heathrow); basically, it doesn't work. Remember, it's not just the passengers that need to be transferred, but the baggage as well. And customs might become a trifle more difficult.

As an aside, if a plane gong to say (Heathrow) gets diverted to Birmingham, how do passengers that were only transiting get to Heathrow if they don't have a visa to enter the country? Is it up to the airline to fly them there? Or is there some form of transit visa system?

You can probably tell I don't fly very often ...

FluffyThoughts · October 2016

Roger said:
Reading the above tweets it's got to be KASSIM. The zeitgeist is with him.

The good news is that if Trump loses there's a new 'Il Duce' for Jenny Freeman Plato and Moniker de Canio to adulate.

Wodger, are you not still in-mourning for Khaddafi?

HYUFD · October 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. HYUFD, indeed. Saw him on the box yesterday. He might as well have 'white working class' stamped on his forehead. I suspect he could do well, particularly in the north.

Agreed MD especially as May is likely to attempt a compromise on free movement i.e. you can come here but only with a job offer, to try and get a trade deal. Nuttall would campaign on a complete end to free movement platform and for a points system

GIN1138 · October 2016

If SK Tremayne ever stood for public office can you imagine how long it would take journalists to trawl through all his posts on here?

HYUFD · October 2016

GIN1138 said:
If SK Tremayne ever stood for public office can you imagine how long it would take journalists to trawl through all his posts on here?

I doubt he will ever run, he can't afford the pay cut!

Indigo · October 2016

FluffyThoughts said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
In all serious, once Brexit is achieved can someone please explain to me what the point of UKIP actually is?
An evolution into somethink better than the current crud that forms HMG's opposition?

Indeed.

They could try and morph into a centrist anti-immigration, secularist, patriotic national party and play for the same Blue Labour votes that May appears to be tacking towards and on a good day get 10-15% of the vote, more if May s*rews the poo*ch on BrExit. Or they could drift to a more solidly centre-right anti-immigration, secularist, patriotic national party and steel right wing Tories that get annoyed when May fails to deliver much of anything and sit maybe around 10%, or go full on Hannan/Carswell libertarian free-traders if they are happy to be effectively a pressure group with a 5% vote and become effectively the backing vocals for Carswell.

What they can't reasonably do is try and be all three at once, which appears to be the current, for want of a better word, policy.

dr_spyn · October 2016

@Morris_Dancer Good call.

Today, Torsten Bell will be mainly keeping his phone off the hook.

https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/news/edstone-architect-torsten-bell-‘lots-ideas-politics-come-and-go’

Indigo · October 2016

dr_spyn said:
When will Goldsmith go in search of The Chiltern's Hundreds? https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/790832030540005376

What happens if the government refuses to give him an office of profit under the Crown ?

HYUFD · October 2016

Indigo said:

FluffyThoughts said:

Richard_Tyndall said:
In all serious, once Brexit is achieved can someone please explain to me what the point of UKIP actually is?
An evolution into somethink better than the current crud that forms HMG's opposition?
Indeed.

They could try and morph into a centrist anti-immigration, secularist, patriotic national party and play for the same Blue Labour votes that May appears to be tacking towards and on a good day get 10-15% of the vote, more if May s*rews the poo*ch on BrExit. Or they could drift to a more solidly centre-right anti-immigration, secularist, patriotic national party and steel right wing Tories that get annoyed when May fails to deliver much of anything and sit maybe around 10%, or go full on Hannan/Carswell libertarian free-traders if they are happy to be effectively a pressure group with a 5% vote and become effectively the backing vocals for Carswell.

What they can't reasonably do is try and be all three at once, which appears to be the current, for want of a better word, policy.

Nuttall would take the first approach, Kassam the second, Evans the third

Pulpstar · October 2016

Passengers per effective runway UK BOLD

LGW 40271343 1
DXB 39005132 2
LHR 37494957 2

PEK 29979543 3
ATL 20297977 5
HND 18829180 4

MAN 11568023 2
BHX 10187122 1
ORD 8549167 9

Essexit · October 2016

matt said:

Essexit said:

IanB2 said:

Pong said:
FPT;

In my not-very-well-informed opinion, a second runway at birmingham and linking HS2 into heathrow would solve the capacity problem.

Treat BHX, LHR and MAN as an integrated airport with HS2 providing airside transfers.
London to Manchester as a transfer?.? In your dreams, HS2 or not! Such a plan would require the invention of teleportation, in which eventuality the extra runway would be superfluous.
Or Hyperloop trains - though they would solve the expansion problem by eliminating the need for most domestic flights.
Which will come first though, Hyperloop or personal teleportation?

Time travel.

Casino_Royale · October 2016

On topic, Suzanne Evans (on the libertarian/ Carswell wing of UKIP) is more the sort of leader that would appeal to me, but probably less so in the WWC North. She would command more national respect but is up against Banks and Nigel, who will both do whatever they can to stop her.

Kassam is a poor man's Trump, so I expect it to be Nuttal, although I think his price is far too short.

Pulpstar · October 2016

Both Gatwick and Heathrow should probably have an extra runway built.

RobD · October 2016

Indigo said:

dr_spyn said:
When will Goldsmith go in search of The Chiltern's Hundreds? https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/790832030540005376
What happens if the government refuses to give him an office of profit under the Crown ?

Last happened in 1842, according to wikipedia.

Casino_Royale · October 2016

rcs1000 said:

TGOHF said:
re earlier Sweden chat - seems they are first to do the sums on trade tariffs...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/24/sweden-holds-out-olive-branch-to-brexit-britain/

"“ We’re an open country and we are in favour of free trade, and we want to see a solution that is as beneficial as possible for everybody,” said Magdalena Andersson, the Swedish finance minister."

"The olive branch from Stockholm reflects the shared view of the Nordic bloc that there is nothing to be gained from a fractious divorce between Britain and the EU. "

"There are over 1,000 Swedish companies operating in Britain, employing 100,000 people, from Saab, Scania, and Electrolux, to Skype and Ericsson, to Ikea and H&M. “They’re worried about potential trade barriers and tariffs, and about the Swedish personnel,” said Ms Andersson.

“A weak British pound affects Swedish exports companies, and that could of course affect the Swedish economy,” she said. Britain is the country’s third biggest foreign market."
Sweden and Germany are probably the most exposed countries to weak UK investment demand, as both economies are dominated by capital goods companies. If people start investing in new capacity in the UK, to take advantage of the weak pound, it will be to the benefit of Siemens, ABB, etc.

I expect a QMV of the EU 27 will be for a moderately sensible deal that preserves the political integrity of the EU, by making it not too like an easy or preferable option.

But the wildcard here is the EU parliament, which likes to do its own thing. If I were a British diplomat, I wouldn't be ignoring it.

JosiasJessop · October 2016

matt said:

Essexit said:

IanB2 said:

Pong said:
FPT;

In my not-very-well-informed opinion, a second runway at birmingham and linking HS2 into heathrow would solve the capacity problem.

Treat BHX, LHR and MAN as an integrated airport with HS2 providing airside transfers.
London to Manchester as a transfer?.? In your dreams, HS2 or not! Such a plan would require the invention of teleportation, in which eventuality the extra runway would be superfluous.
Or Hyperloop trains - though they would solve the expansion problem by eliminating the need for most domestic flights.
Which will come first though, Hyperloop or personal teleportation?

Hyperloop will be done, as a prototype. They'll then start running into all the difficulties that any new technology does, and it'll prove a dead-end on Earth.

Witness the way Maglev still hasn't fulfilled its promise - and is in fact in decline as a technology - after forty years.

People hanging their coat on Hyperloop are just wanting nothing to be done now - it's a delaying tactic.

Pulpstar · October 2016

Though if it can only be one I'd go with Heathrow. I could just about stomach heading down to LHR for a particularly good holiday deal, but Gatwick is another hour on top for travelling misery.

FluffyThoughts · October 2016

Pulpstar said:
Passengers per effective runway UK BOLD

LGW 40271343 1
DXB 39005132 2
LHR 37494957 2

PEK 29979543 3
ATL 20297977 5
HND 18829180 4

MAN 11568023 2
BHX 10187122 1
ORD 8549167 9

And this misses the CAA estimates for 2015:

London Standsted 22,519,178
London Luton 12,263,505

[Src.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busiest_airports_in_the_United_Kingdom_by_total_passenger_traffic]

As the latter is spending hundreds-of-millions in expansion - by 2020 the ability to support 20000000 pax - I wonder why maxPB is so keen to close it! Us Kentish folk find it one of the easiest to reach.

MaxPB · October 2016

Pulpstar said:
Both Gatwick and Heathrow should probably have an extra runway built.

Yes, Heathrow now and Gatwick in 2020. A fourth Heathrow runway before the end of 2030. If Blair had the balls back in 2003 we would already be talking about a fourth runway and a second for Gatwick rather than a possible third one.

JackW · October 2016

Alistair said:

JackW said:
Good news for Alistair ....

Mike Pence to campaign in Utah tomorrow in an attempt to shore up Trump's position against a two pronged attack from Clinton and McMillin :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/mike-pence-utah-republicans-mcmullin-230273
If 2 years ago you had told me the Rep VP would be doing a camapign stop in Utah to shore up support I would have called you a madman.

The question is: McMullin is close to evens on betfair, do I lay off my bet or let it ride?

Is only a tenner, it is going all the way to the finish line.

I suspect the Trump internal polling and local offices are telling the campaign that they're in trouble in the state. You don't send one of your few half decent surrogates to Utah unless alarm bells are ringing ,when he should be in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or Pennsylvania.

I'd take some profit on the bet and let the rest run for fun.

BTW .... I know you've an interest in Texas too. There is a big Univision bi-lingual poll of the state out later this week

Indigo · October 2016

Casino_Royale said:
On topic, Suzanne Evans (on the libertarian/ Carswell wing of UKIP) is more the sort of leader that would appeal to me, but probably less so in the WWC North. She would command more national respect but is up against Banks and Nigel, who will both do whatever they can to stop her.

Kassam is a poor man's Trump, so I expect it to be Nuttal, although I think his price is far too short.

The other political advantage of going the Nuttal centrist route is they would shed all the ex-BNP nutters. The most rightwing party on offer always collects the right-wing nutter vote as their least worst option, in the same way as the Greens used to get all the hard left fruitcakes until Corbyn obliged them. Sadly for the Tories it means they might get the BNP vote back again, and all the "EDL Leader says he'll vote May" stuff the kippers have had for the last few years.

geoffw · October 2016

Pulpstar said:
Though if it can only be one I'd go with Heathrow. I could just about stomach heading down to LHR for a particularly good holiday deal, but Gatwick is another hour on top for travelling misery.

"Though if it can only be one" - why would that be if there's no extra demand on public funding?

MonikerDiCanio · October 2016

JackW said:
National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 3,104 - 25 Oct

Clinton 45.0 .. Trump 44.1

http://www.latimes.com/politics/

It's not called " the silent majority " without reason.
Wise of you to keep your storied ARSE off the line in these strange times.

Essexit · October 2016

JosiasJessop said:

matt said:

Essexit said:

IanB2 said:

Pong said:
FPT;

In my not-very-well-informed opinion, a second runway at birmingham and linking HS2 into heathrow would solve the capacity problem.

Treat BHX, LHR and MAN as an integrated airport with HS2 providing airside transfers.
London to Manchester as a transfer?.? In your dreams, HS2 or not! Such a plan would require the invention of teleportation, in which eventuality the extra runway would be superfluous.
Or Hyperloop trains - though they would solve the expansion problem by eliminating the need for most domestic flights.
Which will come first though, Hyperloop or personal teleportation?
Hyperloop will be done, as a prototype. They'll then start running into all the difficulties that any new technology does, and it'll prove a dead-end on Earth.

Witness the way Maglev still hasn't fulfilled its promise - and is in fact in decline as a technology - after forty years.

People hanging their coat on Hyperloop are just wanting nothing to be done now - it's a delaying tactic.

To be clear, I'm not really serious about Hyperloop - obviously Heathrow should be expanded.

MaxPB · October 2016

geoffw said:

Pulpstar said:
Though if it can only be one I'd go with Heathrow. I could just about stomach heading down to LHR for a particularly good holiday deal, but Gatwick is another hour on top for travelling misery.
"Though if it can only be one" - why would that be if there's no extra demand on public funding?

It would be tough for Gatwick to raise funds if Heathrow were also dipping into the same well. There would need to be a few years in between or state guarantees for Gatwick to expand simultaneously to Heathrow.

JosiasJessop · October 2016

geoffw said:

Pulpstar said:
Though if it can only be one I'd go with Heathrow. I could just about stomach heading down to LHR for a particularly good holiday deal, but Gatwick is another hour on top for travelling misery.
"Though if it can only be one" - why would that be if there's no extra demand on public funding?

Gatwick might find it difficult to get private funding if Heathrow goes ahead, so it might have to be one.

MaxPB · October 2016

FluffyThoughts said:

Pulpstar said:
Passengers per effective runway UK BOLD

LGW 40271343 1
DXB 39005132 2
LHR 37494957 2

PEK 29979543 3
ATL 20297977 5
HND 18829180 4

MAN 11568023 2
BHX 10187122 1
ORD 8549167 9
And this misses the CAA estimates for 2015:

London Standsted 22,519,178
London Luton 12,263,505

[Src.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busiest_airports_in_the_United_Kingdom_by_total_passenger_traffic]

As the latter is spending hundreds-of-millions in expansion - by 2020 the ability to support 20000000 pax - I wonder why maxPB is so keen to close it! Us Kentish folk find it one of the easiest to reach.

Bulldozing Luton isn't limited to just the airport!

Pulpstar · October 2016

JosiasJessop said:

Hyperloop will be done, as a prototype. They'll then start running into all the difficulties that any new technology does, and it'll prove a dead-end on Earth.

In Britain, certainly. Other countries might have more vision and less red tape - I think the first one could be from Dubai to Fujairah.

Musk will probably have one up and running on Mars before the spades are in the ground at LHR, mind.

MaxPB · October 2016

Pulpstar said:

JosiasJessop said:

Hyperloop will be done, as a prototype. They'll then start running into all the difficulties that any new technology does, and it'll prove a dead-end on Earth.
In Britain, certainly. Other countries might have more vision and less red tape - I think the first one could be from Dubai to Fujairah.

Musk will probably have one up and running on Mars before the spades are in the ground at LHR, mind.

If I were BAA I would start building now and dare the local council to destroy 10,000 local jobs by getting them to stop.

geoffw · October 2016

MaxPB said:

geoffw said:

Pulpstar said:
Though if it can only be one I'd go with Heathrow. I could just about stomach heading down to LHR for a particularly good holiday deal, but Gatwick is another hour on top for travelling misery.
"Though if it can only be one" - why would that be if there's no extra demand on public funding?
It would be tough for Gatwick to raise funds if Heathrow were also dipping into the same well. There would need to be a few years in between or state guarantees for Gatwick to expand simultaneously to Heathrow.

My guess is that both get the green light today. Gatwick is an easy choice politically since there is very little activist opposition.

Theuniondivvie · October 2016

Indigo said:

Casino_Royale said:
On topic, Suzanne Evans (on the libertarian/ Carswell wing of UKIP) is more the sort of leader that would appeal to me, but probably less so in the WWC North. She would command more national respect but is up against Banks and Nigel, who will both do whatever they can to stop her.

Kassam is a poor man's Trump, so I expect it to be Nuttal, although I think his price is far too short.
The other political advantage of going the Nuttal centrist route is they would shed all the ex-BNP nutters. The most rightwing party on offer always collects the right-wing nutter vote as their least worst option, in the same way as the Greens used to get all the hard left fruitcakes until Corbyn obliged them. Sadly for the Tories it means they might get the BNP vote back again, and all the "EDL Leader says he'll vote May" stuff the kippers have had for the last few years.

Yeah, 'centrist' Nuttall's REALLY going to turn off the BNP types.

FluffyThoughts · October 2016

MaxPB said:
Bulldozing Luton isn't limited to just the airport!

You versus Rio Ferdinand! I'd like to sell tickets to the event but us Peckham-boys are loyal to our council-estate roots.

Keep your bigotry in your own backyard!

MaxPB · October 2016

geoffw said:

MaxPB said:

geoffw said:

Pulpstar said:
Though if it can only be one I'd go with Heathrow. I could just about stomach heading down to LHR for a particularly good holiday deal, but Gatwick is another hour on top for travelling misery.
"Though if it can only be one" - why would that be if there's no extra demand on public funding?
It would be tough for Gatwick to raise funds if Heathrow were also dipping into the same well. There would need to be a few years in between or state guarantees for Gatwick to expand simultaneously to Heathrow.
My guess is that both get the green light today. Gatwick is an easy choice politically since there is very little activist opposition.

I think it will be Heathrow today and Gatwick after 2020 if they need it.

HYUFD · October 2016

Theuniondivvie said:

Indigo said:

Casino_Royale said:
On topic, Suzanne Evans (on the libertarian/ Carswell wing of UKIP) is more the sort of leader that would appeal to me, but probably less so in the WWC North. She would command more national respect but is up against Banks and Nigel, who will both do whatever they can to stop her.

Kassam is a poor man's Trump, so I expect it to be Nuttal, although I think his price is far too short.
The other political advantage of going the Nuttal centrist route is they would shed all the ex-BNP nutters. The most rightwing party on offer always collects the right-wing nutter vote as their least worst option, in the same way as the Greens used to get all the hard left fruitcakes until Corbyn obliged them. Sadly for the Tories it means they might get the BNP vote back again, and all the "EDL Leader says he'll vote May" stuff the kippers have had for the last few years.
Yeah, 'centrist' Nuttall's REALLY going to turn off the BNP types.

Given the choice between Nuttall and May such types are certainly not going for the latter, Evans and May maybe

JackW · October 2016

MonikerDiCanio said:

JackW said:
National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 3,104 - 25 Oct

Clinton 45.0 .. Trump 44.1

http://www.latimes.com/politics/
It's not called " the silent majority " without reason.
Wise of you to keep your storied ARSE off the line in these strange times.

You cling to the comfort blanket of this tracker and Rasmussen if you wish, whilst Trump's campaign manager conceded yesterday that they were behind.

You are of course quite correct about the "silent majority" - College educated whites, minorities and women sending Donald into the world of Trump TV.

Scott_P · October 2016

@bbclaurak: So, it seems done (at last!) Source tells me Heathrow did get the nod in committee this morning - No 10 won't confirm or deny, cabinet now

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