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@Morris_Dancer, 'No Safety Car' is 1.87 on Betfair. I'm in for an Ayrton, what do you think?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Nigelb said:

Not the least reason for continued bickering about what happens next is that much the same appears to being conducted, sometimes quite publicly, within the cabinet.
When there's no settled policy, it seems rather otiose to argue that those who voted remain ought just to shut up.

Cabinet members ticking each other off publically, and being slapped down by the PM does indeed give the impression that there is no plan.

I have not seen any evidence that there is a plan, or that May is capable of forming one. In the absence of a plan the outcome defaults to Hard Brexit. Get used to it.

If it has to be it has to be. Sod them and their freedom of movement danegeld

The irony is that after Hard Brexit, and the end of freedom of movement, is that immigration will still be on much the same scale as it is now. The immigrants come to do the jobs that Britons cannot or will not do. The family unifications and students will continue. Even crashing the economy will not stop it (it did not in 2009-10).

Brexit will fail on the one thing that it set out to do. Why am I so sure? Well, because May completely failed to get a grip on non-EU migration during her 6 years in charge of it.

foxinsoxuk said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Nigelb said:

Not the least reason for continued bickering about what happens next is that much the same appears to being conducted, sometimes quite publicly, within the cabinet.
When there's no settled policy, it seems rather otiose to argue that those who voted remain ought just to shut up.

Cabinet members ticking each other off publically, and being slapped down by the PM does indeed give the impression that there is no plan.

I have not seen any evidence that there is a plan, or that May is capable of forming one. In the absence of a plan the outcome defaults to Hard Brexit. Get used to it.

If it has to be it has to be. Sod them and their freedom of movement danegeld

The irony is that after Hard Brexit, and the end of freedom of movement, is that immigration will still be on much the same scale as it is now. The immigrants come to do the jobs that Britons cannot or will not do. The family unifications and students will continue. Even crashing the economy will not stop it (it did not in 2009-10).

Brexit will fail on the one thing that it set out to do. Why am I so sure? Well, because May completely failed to get a grip on non-EU migration during her 6 years in charge of it.

There will be more tools available to do so after Hexit. The question is whether those tools would be used effectively.

Sandpit said:

ThomasNashe said:

Bromptonaut said:

Uh-oh


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk

Please get with it: the destruction of our financial services, decades of economic stagnation and decline in our international influence is but a small price to pay for Freedom! And we'll also get less immigration.

Funny how the same people that have been bashing the evil scumbag bankers since 2008, now recoil in horror at the idea of financial services moving out of the UK.

Not me, tar and feather them and send them on their way

foxinsoxuk said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Nigelb said:

Not the least reason for continued bickering about what happens next is that much the same appears to being conducted, sometimes quite publicly, within the cabinet.
When there's no settled policy, it seems rather otiose to argue that those who voted remain ought just to shut up.

Cabinet members ticking each other off publically, and being slapped down by the PM does indeed give the impression that there is no plan.

I have not seen any evidence that there is a plan, or that May is capable of forming one. In the absence of a plan the outcome defaults to Hard Brexit. Get used to it.

If it has to be it has to be. Sod them and their freedom of movement danegeld

The irony is that after Hard Brexit, and the end of freedom of movement, is that immigration will still be on much the same scale as it is now. The immigrants come to do the jobs that Britons cannot or will not do. The family unifications and students will continue. Even crashing the economy will not stop it (it did not in 2009-10).

Brexit will fail on the one thing that it set out to do. Why am I so sure? Well, because May completely failed to get a grip on non-EU migration during her 6 years in charge of it.

Only for those for whom immigration was the be all and end of all

For those where EU immigration was an issue only in that it was a symptom of a much bigger issue (loss of sovereignty), not so much.

Also when parliament decides the numbers, parliament can be lobbied and their members replaced if they piss the public off enough over immigration. The EU nabobs couldnt be so removed by the British Public.

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Roger said:

Indigo said:

ThomasNashe said:

Bromptonaut said:

Uh-oh


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk

Please get with it: the destruction of our financial services, decades of economic stagnation and decline in our international influence is but a small price to pay for Freedom! And we'll also get less immigration.

Woe woe and thrice woe! The end of the world is nigh!

Christ what a lot of crying on this board, the decision has been taken for good or ill, move the fuck on.

I'm with you all the way. Tho one'll notice

Financial services are one thing (though I expect the moves to be piecemeal, as hiring stops here, natural wastage occurs and new jobs are in Frankfurt and Geneva), but the Brexiteers risk trashing the brand in a Trump like orgy of narcisstic pique. Our cultural brand is a large part of the value of our exports in design, fashion, music, TV etc; the damage to these could be very significant.

You make a very good point. The value of the British brand in most of the creative and cultural fields was second to none. We punched way above our weight. The damage that was done to the UK brand by the vote alone is incalculable.

From representing an outgoing creative powerhouse 'brand UK' has become a symbol of UKIP 'Little Englanders'. Why should those of us in the service sector accept the damage to our livelihoods and the country's livelihood by the votes of some very ignorant people who have no idea of the implications of what they were doing or how the country makes its money.

Bollocks

the "cool britannia" brand exists only in the heads of people on the UK left. it's their vanity invention of how they see themselves.

for the rest of the world we still we have bad teeth, wear bowler hats and live in villages with Miss Marple. it's indifferent food, cold stand offishness and the pursuit of money.

Speak for yourself sunshine!

Nigelb said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Nigelb said:

Not the least reason for continued bickering about what happens next is that much the same appears to being conducted, sometimes quite publicly, within the cabinet.
When there's no settled policy, it seems rather otiose to argue that those who voted remain ought just to shut up.

Cabinet members ticking each other off publically, and being slapped down by the PM does indeed give the impression that there is no plan.

I have not seen any evidence that there is a plan, or that May is capable of forming one. In the absence of a plan the outcome defaults to Hard Brexit. Get used to it.

I posted a while back that Mrs May might just be Oscar Wilde's Sphinx Without a Secret, and I'm starting to fear that's true.

That reminds me of a true story when a new senior operations director arrived at the large company I used to work for. He came with a glowing reputation, and for the first few months sat inscrutably at almost every meeting he attended, whilst the grapevine hummed with tales of this silent genius who was taking his time to weigh up all the issues before revealing his master strategy. After about six months people were starting to get edgy that no strategy had appeared and, indeed, he had hardly done or said anything. He was gone within the year, the penny that he was out of his depth having finally dropped, leaving as silently as he arrived. Doubtless he got a good reference to help him on the way.

SquareRoot said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Bedfordshire, I agree. I think the EU will implode sooner or later, and we're better to be outside the edifice when it collapses. That doesn't mean it'll be plain sailing.

A ship in a harbour is safe. But that is not what ships are for.

Dr. Foxinsox, if only you'd tipped it!

I wish I'd put more than a few pounds on Verstappen, but can't complain too much about a 250/1 winner in about a week.

A ship in harbour is safe.. tell that to the Tirpitz.

Or the Royal Oak, Arizona, Oklahoma...

foxinsoxuk said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Roger said:

Indigo said:

ThomasNashe said:

Bromptonaut said:

Uh-oh


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk

Please get with it: the destruction of our financial services, decades of economic stagnation and decline in our international influence is but a small price to pay for Freedom! And we'll also get less immigration.

Woe woe and thrice woe! The end of the world is nigh!

Christ what a lot of crying on this board, the decision has been taken for good or ill, move the fuck on.

I'm with you all the way. Tho one'll notice

Financial services are one thing (though I expect the moves to be piecemeal, as hiring stops here, natural wastage occurs and new jobs are in Frankfurt and Geneva), but the Brexiteers risk trashing the brand in a Trump like orgy of narcisstic pique. Our cultural brand is a large part of the value of our exports in design, fashion, music, TV etc; the damage to these could be very significant.

You make a very good point. The value of the British brand in most of the creative and cultural fields was second to none. We punched way above our weight. The damage that was done to the UK brand by the vote alone is incalculable.

From representing an outgoing creative powerhouse 'brand UK' has become a symbol of UKIP 'Little Englanders'. Why should those of us in the service sector accept the damage to our livelihoods and the country's livelihood by the votes of some very ignorant people who have no idea of the implications of what they were doing or how the country makes its money.

Bollocks

the "cool britannia" brand exists only in the heads of people on the UK left. it's their vanity invention of how they see themselves.

for the rest of the world we still we have bad teeth, wear bowler hats and live in villages with Miss Marple. it's indifferent food, cold stand offishness and the pursuit of money.

Speak for yourself sunshine!

get out and travel more, you might get a surprise.

Alanbrooke said:

Charles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On financial services: it's almost as if they're setting out to influence* the strategy and negotiations of the UK Government.

*Obviously, this is fine. But it does mean we shouldn't necessarily take the Exodus of Money as gospel truth. After all, neither New York nor Singapore are members of the EU.

language is the strategic advantage that can't be replicated. Arabs and Chinese don't want to do business in French or German. If the City moves wholesale then it will lose that business.

A deal with Dublin strikes me as the most likely outcome. It intrigues me that Ireland has not been as publicly aggressive as France and (to a lesser extent) Frankfurt in seeking to attract business from London

why upset your biggest client when taking business from him ?

I think they've done a deal where Dublin will provide a fee-for-service middle office and slice out 5-10% of revenues but most of the front office remains in London

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

She is right on this:

"In my 20 years of political activism, I cannot remember a time when we had such an unshared sense of who we are as a nation."

No: for the last 20 years the people who disagreed with her we're ignored. That's not the same as not existing

And inasmuch as they were conscious that they were living in a country in which their views were ignored, we did have a 'shared sense of who we are as a nation', no?

The challenge is that now they think they are living in a country where they have the whip hand, although they don't. This cognitive dissonance was wound up by the likes of Gove and Johnson, and it will violently uncoil in their faces in due course.

Morning all

On topic, as a novelty, I think it's going to depend on how close the result is on election night in the US. If he loses 55-45 I think Trump will be gracious in defeat - he is capable of being gracious and sincere - as no amount of allegations of a rigged ballot will make any difference if he is 10 points or more down.

Before the EU Referendum, I said that what people said in the heat of campaigns and what they said once the votes had been cast were rarely the same - the conflict and the rancour is set aside in favour of conciliation and unity. Trump will, if he loses badly, urge that conciliation and unity from his supporters - whether they wish to provide it is another matter but that's not the basis of the bet.

If it's 2000-type close, Trump has every right to go through the full electoral process in terms of recounts and checking (as does HRC of course). He may warn against cheating or dubious tactics as he has a right to do but he won't be in effect conceding simply because he hasn't lost.

Gore accepted the result once the process of checking those hanging chads had been completed and verified but he had every right to have that process carried out and to wait for its outcome and to not concede until the process had been completed.

Strangely, some of the best speeches I've ever heard from politicians come in the wake of defeat - both John Major in 1997 and Nick Clegg in 2015 were superb as was Gordon Brown in 2010.

Alanbrooke said:

williamglenn said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Roger said:

Indigo said:

ThomasNashe said:

Bromptonaut said:

Uh-oh


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk

Please get with it: the destruction of our financial services, decades of economic stagnation and decline in our international influence is but a small price to pay for Freedom! And we'll also get less immigration.

Woe woe and thrice woe! The end of the world is nigh!

Christ what a lot of crying on this board, the decision has been taken for good or ill, move the fuck on.

I'm with you all the way. Tho one'll notice

You make a very good point. The value of the British brand in most of the creative and cultural fields was second to none. We punched way above our weight. The damage that was done to the UK brand by the vote alone is incalculable.

From representing an outgoing creative powerhouse 'brand UK' has become a symbol of UKIP 'Little Englanders'. Why should those of us in the service sector accept the damage to our livelihoods and the country's livelihood by the votes of some very ignorant people who have no idea of the implications of what they were doing or how the country makes its money.

Bollocks

the "cool britannia" brand exists only in the heads of people on the UK left. it's their vanity invention of how they see themselves.

for the rest of the world we still we have bad teeth, wear bowler hats and live in villages with Miss Marple. it's indifferent food, cold stand offishness and the pursuit of money.

You're talking at cross purposes. While it may be true that the average citizen living in the sticks in Alabama or Novosibirsk might think that way, that is very different from our commercial brand in the minds of people who control large budgets.

people who control budgets dont give a shit about happy clappy multi culti nirvana, except at the margins. Ive dealt with enough non-UK executives over the years to know how they see the english ( being Irish they open up more ) and it's not in the way you'd like it to be.

Rather reminds me of someone involved in winning contracts from the public sector preferred Labour in power a good few years back.

With the tories, lots of contract conditions to keep your price down and keep tabs on you.

With Labour - a lot of guff about Diversity.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, interesting suggestion. I think I checked the (four, or so) previous races. Half had safety cars, although one of those, I think, was very wet. Might be worth a look.

My initial ideas all had dire odds so I'm having to search for something. I think more coffee may be required.

From a quick look at Betfair:

No safely car : 1.87 - was wet last year, more use of VSC this year for debris collection and trucks on track.
Ricciardo to lead first lap, 4.3
Rosberg to lead the first lap, 4.7 (value there surely!)
Verstappen, winner w/o Hamilton, 6
Button to score points, 2.7

williamglenn said:

Alanbrooke said:

Ive dealt with enough non-UK executives over the years to know how they see the english ( being Irish they open up more )

Piling conceit upon conceit.

reality check for you Mr Glenn

Freggles said:

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

She is right on this:

"In my 20 years of political activism, I cannot remember a time when we had such an unshared sense of who we are as a nation."

No: for the last 20 years the people who disagreed with her we're ignored. That's not the same as not existing

Rubbish. They have dominated tabloids during the whole time. This "you couldn't talk shot immigration" thing is easily disproven by glancing at the Daily Mail archive

You couldnt talk immigration in the places that matter. Central and Local Government, the civil service and the professions. If you didnt go with the received view you were at best an outsider with little chance of promotion and at worst removed/fired.

Latest 538 FOP "Polls Plus" (most conservative) projections. Clinton win % :

FL - 68.4
OH - 53.7
PA - 86.5

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

JosiasJessop said:

There will be more tools available to do so after Hexit. The question is whether those tools would be used effectively.

Isn't that the point. If a government of the future does not do what the electorate want they can be voted out. At present there are swaths of policy where the electorate has no choice but to accept what they are given, which is worked out in Brussels and may not be in the best interest of the UK.

As for HMG not having a settled plan, how reasonable is it to expect them to have one? Leaving the EU and the negotiations that will happen is immensely complex. No work was done on contingency planning for leaving because Cameron and Co would not allow it. So work only really got going once the new PM was in place. What was that, three months ago? Including July and August when a lot of the key players, here and in foreign chancelleries, will have been on leave. There are going to lots of different views in cabinet, in the CS, and lots of preparatory discussions with foreign governments. Position and option papers will need to be written, considered in cabinet and umpteen committees, arguments made. Then and only then will HMG come to a settled view.

Anyone with any experience of how government actually works will not be in the least surprised that no settled plan has been arrived at yet. In fact most would be horrified if that were the case.

Now, having joined with the Dr Sox, and some others, in restating my opinion for the umpteenth time I am going to go and do something more useful and enjoyable with my time. I really can't be bothered to spend time reading yet another thread where the same people once again express the same opinions.

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

She is right on this:

"In my 20 years of political activism, I cannot remember a time when we had such an unshared sense of who we are as a nation."

Brexit did not come out of nowhere. For the past 20 years, many perhaps most, of Seema Malhotra's fellow citizens did not share her sense of who we are as a nation. However, her values were hegemonic for most of that period. Now, they aren't.

williamglenn said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Roger said:

Indigo said:

ThomasNashe said:

Bromptonaut said:

Uh-oh


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk

.

You make a very good point. The value of the British brand in most of the creative and cultural fields was second to none. We punched way above our weight. The damage that was done to the UK brand by the vote alone is incalculable.

From representing an outgoing creative powerhouse 'brand UK' has become a symbol of UKIP 'Little Englanders'. Why should those of us in the service sector accept the damage to our livelihoods and the country's livelihood by the votes of some very ignorant people who have no idea of the implications of what they were doing or how the country makes its money.

Bollocks

the "cool britannia" brand exists only in the heads of people on the UK left. it's their vanity invention of how they see themselves.

for the rest of the world we still we have bad teeth, wear bowler hats and live in villages with Miss Marple. it's indifferent food, cold stand offishness and the pursuit of money.

You're talking at cross purposes. While it may be true that the average citizen living in the sticks in Alabama or Novosibirsk might think that way, that is very different from our commercial brand in the minds of people who control large budgets.

Several points coming out of this:
1) The - and I hate this word, but I can't think of any better - perceived coolness of Britain is a good thing to have for our international reputation. But this hasn't suddenly changed as a result of the referendum. We are the same mix of people we were six months ago. I suspect you get the same mix of attitudes in any major European country; although Britain is probably slightly more liberal for two reasons: larger population in big cities and less influence of the church.
2) Why should a constitutional decision affect 1)? There's nothing particularly cool, or otherwise, about the EU. It's a trading bloc, not the Beatles. Anyone who was voting on whether we want to be Russel Brand or Miss Marple was voting for the wrong reasons. (That's not to say that many weren't voting for reasons that inane.)
3) I seem to remember Britain being fairly well-thought of on this score in the 60s, when we were outside of the EEC.

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

She is right on this:

"In my 20 years of political activism, I cannot remember a time when we had such an unshared sense of who we are as a nation."

No: for the last 20 years the people who disagreed with her we're ignored. That's not the same as not existing

And inasmuch as they were conscious that they were living in a country in which their views were ignored, we did have a 'shared sense of who we are as a nation', no?

The challenge is that now they think they are living in a country where they have the whip hand, although they don't. This cognitive dissonance was wound up by the likes of Gove and Johnson, and it will violently uncoil in their faces in due course.

Nah - I think they didn't really give a monkey for what those prays in London (and i include myself as one) got up to.

The liberal metropolitan mindset took that for a shared sense of nation. They smiled, and passed and paid - but ultimately forgot that the secret people might one day wake.

Brexit good news !

Bob Geldof says he might go back to Dublin post Brexit.

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

She is right on this:

"In my 20 years of political activism, I cannot remember a time when we had such an unshared sense of who we are as a nation."

No: for the last 20 years the people who disagreed with her we're ignored. That's not the same as not existing

And inasmuch as they were conscious that they were living in a country in which their views were ignored, we did have a 'shared sense of who we are as a nation', no?

The challenge is that now they think they are living in a country where they have the whip hand, although they don't. This cognitive dissonance was wound up by the likes of Gove and Johnson, and it will violently uncoil in their faces in due course.

Nah - I think they didn't really give a monkey for what those prays in London (and i include myself as one) got up to.

The liberal metropolitan mindset took that for a shared sense of nation. They smiled, and passed and paid - but ultimately forgot that the secret people might one day wake.

Your vision of a country split between the metropolis and the rural poor is equally skewed. You ignore the majority who are in neither category - a blind spot that is just as big as the mindset you believe has been overturned.

Nigelb said:

IanB2 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Alanbrooke said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Nigelb said:

Not the least reason for continued bickering about what happens next is that much the same appears to being conducted, sometimes quite publicly, within the cabinet.
When there's no settled policy, it seems rather otiose to argue that those who voted remain ought just to shut up.

Cabinet members ticking each other off publically, and being slapped down by the PM does indeed give the impression that there is no plan.

I have not seen any evidence that there is a plan, or that May is capable of forming one. In the absence of a plan the outcome defaults to Hard Brexit. Get used to it.

Probably best.

Why stay in an organisation that cant deliver a trade deal with the US or Canada or anywhere else for that matter.

Even the germans are now coming to realise the Brits had a point.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/ttip-und-freihandel/kommentar-zu-ceta-blamierte-europaeer-14492117.html

the Walloonies are holding them by the balls and brand EUrope is being trashed by its failure to deliver deals.

Im beginning to recognise that there is no alternative to hard brexit. Its going to be more difficult, especially in the short term but, so be it. What we are regaining is far more precious than gold sovereigns - and if we really take a hit then the welfare state will go which in the long term is the best thing we can do for the underclass who will have to stop being like sheep and learn to think for themselves again.

Pain for other people?

I think Mr Bedfordshire is of the 'who; whom' school of politics.

Wow. This says everything about Brexitters sneering attitude towards those the people that voted for Brexit.

Nigelb said:

IanB2 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Alanbrooke said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Nigelb said:

Not the least reason for continued bickering about what happens next is that much the same appears to being conducted, sometimes quite publicly, within the cabinet.
When there's no settled policy, it seems rather otiose to argue that those who voted remain ought just to shut up.

Cabinet members ticking each other off publically, and being slapped down by the PM does indeed give the impression that there is no plan.

I have not seen any evidence that there is a plan, or that May is capable of forming one. In the absence of a plan the outcome defaults to Hard Brexit. Get used to it.

Probably best.

Why stay in an organisation that cant deliver a trade deal with the US or Canada or anywhere else for that matter.

Even the germans are now coming to realise the Brits had a point.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/ttip-und-freihandel/kommentar-zu-ceta-blamierte-europaeer-14492117.html

the Walloonies are holding them by the balls and brand EUrope is being trashed by its failure to deliver deals.

Im beginning to recognise that there is no alternative to hard brexit. Its going to be more difficult, especially in the short term but, so be it. What we are regaining is far more precious than gold sovereigns - and if we really take a hit then the welfare state will go which in the long term is the best thing we can do for the underclass who will have to stop being like sheep and learn to think for themselves again.

Pain for other people?

I think Mr Bedfordshire is of the 'who; whom' school of politics.

I think that who/whom is a widely-shared philosophy. During the Blair/Brown years, centre-right voters were on the receiving end of several well-aimed pokes in the eye.

Charles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On financial services: it's almost as if they're setting out to influence* the strategy and negotiations of the UK Government.

*Obviously, this is fine. But it does mean we shouldn't necessarily take the Exodus of Money as gospel truth. After all, neither New York nor Singapore are members of the EU.

language is the strategic advantage that can't be replicated. Arabs and Chinese don't want to do business in French or German. If the City moves wholesale then it will lose that business.

A deal with Dublin strikes me as the most likely outcome. It intrigues me that Ireland has not been as publicly aggressive as France and (to a lesser extent) Frankfurt in seeking to attract business from London

Charles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Charles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

On financial services: it's almost as if they're setting out to influence* the strategy and negotiations of the UK Government.

*Obviously, this is fine. But it does mean we shouldn't necessarily take the Exodus of Money as gospel truth. After all, neither New York nor Singapore are members of the EU.

language is the strategic advantage that can't be replicated. Arabs and Chinese don't want to do business in French or German. If the City moves wholesale then it will lose that business.

A deal with Dublin strikes me as the most likely outcome. It intrigues me that Ireland has not been as publicly aggressive as France and (to a lesser extent) Frankfurt in seeking to attract business from London

why upset your biggest client when taking business from him ?

I think they've done a deal where Dublin will provide a fee-for-service middle office and slice out 5-10% of revenues but most of the front office remains in London

In my view, there will be a deal with Dublin: English-speaking, in the EU and the eurozone. In exchange, EIRE will offer cooperation on customs and border control for the UK.

I expect both will look for transport infrastructure upgrades between London and Dublin, which might also have the benefit of boosting the economy of South Wales, and I will be looking for this in future budget statements.

Morris_Dancer said:

Betting Post

Mr. Sandpit, interesting suggestions. I'd probably prefer an each way winner on Verstappen, and don't think Button will get points. The first lap leader odds look weird, though. Ricciardo's 5.5 on Ladbrokes.

Early tip:
One stake split between Ricciardo to lead lap 1 (5.5 Ladbrokes) and Rosberg likewise (4.8, Betfair).

I'm going to follow the two bets on the lead lap, with a cover of Hamilton to win the race, 1.77 on Betfair. Am already on the no SC.

Button was running in the top 10 all weekend, didn't get a clean lap in qualifying due to traffic. I think he'll move up from 17th.

Sean_F said:

Nigelb said:

IanB2 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Alanbrooke said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Nigelb said:

Not the least reason for continued bickering about what happens next is that much the same appears to being conducted, sometimes quite publicly, within the cabinet.
When there's no settled policy, it seems rather otiose to argue that those who voted remain ought just to shut up.

Cabinet members ticking each other off publically, and being slapped down by the PM does indeed give the impression that there is no plan.

I have not seen any evidence that there is a plan, or that May is capable of forming one. In the absence of a plan the outcome defaults to Hard Brexit. Get used to it.

Probably best.

Why stay in an organisation that cant deliver a trade deal with the US or Canada or anywhere else for that matter.

Even the germans are now coming to realise the Brits had a point.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/ttip-und-freihandel/kommentar-zu-ceta-blamierte-europaeer-14492117.html

the Walloonies are holding them by the balls and brand EUrope is being trashed by its failure to deliver deals.

Im beginning to recognise that there is no alternative to hard brexit. Its going to be more difficult, especially in the short term but, so be it. What we are regaining is far more precious than gold sovereigns - and if we really take a hit then the welfare state will go which in the long term is the best thing we can do for the underclass who will have to stop being like sheep and learn to think for themselves again.

Pain for other people?

I think Mr Bedfordshire is of the 'who; whom' school of politics.

I think that who/whom is a widely-shared philosophy.

Can't argue with that, sadly.

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

What's her view on the intolerance of homosexuality within certain communities, or the intolerance of harassment of those going about their business of buying and selling alcohol in certain parts of east London?

As I suspected when I clicked on the link and 'Guardian' popped up, such intolerance is all the fault of the Leavers. Who are all perfectly dreadful people, of course.

The lack of self-awareness and cognitive dissonance of those in Remainia never ceases to astonish me.

Indigo said:

Scott_P said:

Alanbrooke said:

Pah

that happened just about every day when I worked in France.

So the UK is "only as bad as France"

Awesome...

Yes but this is the France that Woger holds up as the epitome of European culture and savoir faire.

"The Bureau" is certainly outstanding television. And a side of France that we rarely see.

Roger said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

Interesting article. I heard of my first bit of post vote racism yesterday. An Italian friend who owns a wine bar was speaking to a representative from a brewery ordering beer. He had to answer several standard questions. His English is reasonable but not perfect and one of the questions he couldn't understand so asked for clarification.

This didn't help much and he heard the lady from the brewery presumably believing her hand was covering the phone saying to a colleague 'When are these foreigners going to be sent home?". When they resumed my friend reminded her that he might be a foreigner but he was also a customer! Flustered she said she wasn't talking about him.........

He said he's never encountered anything like that before and he's been in the UK for 4 years.

Undeniable that Brexit has given many the license to express the worst kinds of opinions.

And let us not forget Jo Cox was murdered by a Brexiting madman.

It is very poor show for Brexiters to deny this (though they are not of course responsible for it).

Latest CNN Electoral College Projection

Clinton 303 .. Trump 179 .. Toss-Up 56

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-5-october/index.html

Alanbrooke said:

Brexit good news !

Bob Geldof says he might go back to Dublin post Brexit.

Superb.

Indigo said:

Gardenwalker said:

Roger said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

Interesting article. I heard of my first bit of post vote racism yesterday. An Italian friend who owns a wine bar was speaking to a representative from a brewery ordering beer. He had to answer several standard questions. His English is reasonable but not perfect and one of the questions he couldn't understand so asked for clarification.

This didn't help much and he heard the lady from the brewery presumably believing her hand was covering the phone saying to a colleague 'When are these foreigners going to be sent home?". When they resumed my friend reminded her that he might be a foreigner but he was also a customer! Flustered she said she wasn't talking about him.........

He said he's never encountered anything like that before and he's been in the UK for 4 years.

Undeniable that Brexit has given many the license to express the worst kinds of opinions.

And let us not forget Jo Cox was murdered by a Brexiting madman.

It is very poor show for Brexiters to deny this (though they are not of course responsible for it).

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/brexiter-brutally-beaten-remain-voter-9047676

As I said, it's a poor show from you.

Indigo said:

.

Thank you for posting Plato's entire impartial Clinton comments this year ..

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

She is right on this:

"In my 20 years of political activism, I cannot remember a time when we had such an unshared sense of who we are as a nation."

Brexit did not come out of nowhere. For the past 20 years, many perhaps most, of Seema Malhotra's fellow citizens did not share her sense of who we are as a nation. However, her values were hegemonic for most of that period. Now, they aren't.

Precisely so.

I can appreciate how someone feels bereft when they're convinced that history is on their side, and then it turns out it isn't.

Nigelb said:

On a more cheerful note, the Bangladesh test is proving unexpectedly excellent.
I think they have probably lost one wicket too many, but are having a serious fling at a demanding fourth innings target.
If only more pitches were like this.

I'm really glad that the test is nicely poised. I remember when I was going back and forth to Bangladesh some twenty plus years ago, it seemed we could have had anything we wanted in the negotiations if only we could have delivered the England team to play a test in Bangladesh.

Well, that - and some hefty bribes. So the deal could not be done. Bloody cricketers.....

Morris_Dancer said:

Incidentally, No Safety Car is evens at Ladbrokes.

Not seeing much beyond the half-Sandpit split tip.

Another thought. RB are splitting their strategy with Max following the Mercs in starting on the softs and possibly trying for one stop or rather than two. Daniil, on the other hand, starts on the supetsofts and might try a gonzo 3-stop strategy. Worth a couple of quid at 11 for the win, it will either work or it won't, although they came very close to pulling off the same trick in Singapore.

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

She is right on this:

"In my 20 years of political activism, I cannot remember a time when we had such an unshared sense of who we are as a nation."

No: for the last 20 years the people who disagreed with her we're ignored. That's not the same as not existing

And inasmuch as they were conscious that they were living in a country in which their views were ignored, we did have a 'shared sense of who we are as a nation', no?

The challenge is that now they think they are living in a country where they have the whip hand, although they don't. This cognitive dissonance was wound up by the likes of Gove and Johnson, and it will violently uncoil in their faces in due course.

Nah - I think they didn't really give a monkey for what those prays in London (and i include myself as one) got up to.

The liberal metropolitan mindset took that for a shared sense of nation. They smiled, and passed and paid - but ultimately forgot that the secret people might one day wake.

Your vision of a country split between the metropolis and the rural poor is equally skewed. You ignore the majority who are in neither category - a blind spot that is just as big as the mindset you believe has been overturned.

I'm not splitting between the metropolis and the rural poor. Splitting between London and the rest. (And, obviously, not 100% of people in each area buy into the respective mindset)

The divisions never really healed from the 1640s; it was always only a matter of time before they broke out again.

Trump Jnr does his level best to not close down the story that has damaged his father the most :

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/trump-jr-facts-of-life/index.html

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Nigelb said:

Not the least reason for continued bickering about what happens next is that much the same appears to being conducted, sometimes quite publicly, within the cabinet.
When there's no settled policy, it seems rather otiose to argue that those who voted remain ought just to shut up.

Cabinet members ticking each other off publically, and being slapped down by the PM does indeed give the impression that there is no plan.

I have not seen any evidence that there is a plan, or that May is capable of forming one. In the absence of a plan the outcome defaults to Hard Brexit. Get used to it.

If it has to be it has to be. Sod them and their freedom of movement danegeld

As Kipling wrote:

And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
But we've proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.
Because he'll start a small business
And maybe get a flat in Wood Green

Gardenwalker said:

Roger said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

Interesting article. I heard of my first bit of post vote racism yesterday. An Italian friend who owns a wine bar was speaking to a representative from a brewery ordering beer. He had to answer several standard questions. His English is reasonable but not perfect and one of the questions he couldn't understand so asked for clarification.

This didn't help much and he heard the lady from the brewery presumably believing her hand was covering the phone saying to a colleague 'When are these foreigners going to be sent home?". When they resumed my friend reminded her that he might be a foreigner but he was also a customer! Flustered she said she wasn't talking about him.........

He said he's never encountered anything like that before and he's been in the UK for 4 years.

Undeniable that Brexit has given many the license to express the worst kinds of opinions.

And let us not forget Jo Cox was murdered by a Brexiting madman.

It is very poor show for Brexiters to deny this (though they are not of course responsible for it).

That's a very poor show by you.

All we know is that Jo Cox was murdered by a madman. We know nothing about his reasons.

Charles said:

Gardenwalker said:

Roger said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

Interesting article. I heard of my first bit of post vote racism yesterday. An Italian friend who owns a wine bar was speaking to a representative from a brewery ordering beer. He had to answer several standard questions. His English is reasonable but not perfect and one of the questions he couldn't understand so asked for clarification.

This didn't help much and he heard the lady from the brewery presumably believing her hand was covering the phone saying to a colleague 'When are these foreigners going to be sent home?". When they resumed my friend reminded her that he might be a foreigner but he was also a customer! Flustered she said she wasn't talking about him.........

He said he's never encountered anything like that before and he's been in the UK for 4 years.

Undeniable that Brexit has given many the license to express the worst kinds of opinions.

And let us not forget Jo Cox was murdered by a Brexiting madman.

It is very poor show for Brexiters to deny this (though they are not of course responsible for it).

That's a very poor show by you.

All we know is that Jo Cox was murdered by a madman. We know nothing about his reasons.

Er, I think it's pretty clear he wasn't a liberal lefty looking to extend human rights to quinoa.

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Seema Malhotra's take on the post-referendum intolerance:

http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh

She is right on this:

"In my 20 years of political activism, I cannot remember a time when we had such an unshared sense of who we are as a nation."

No: for the last 20 years the people who disagreed with her we're ignored. That's not the same as not existing

And inasmuch as they were conscious that they were living in a country in which their views were ignored, we did have a 'shared sense of who we are as a nation', no?

The challenge is that now they think they are living in a country where they have the whip hand, although they don't. This cognitive dissonance was wound up by the likes of Gove and Johnson, and it will violently uncoil in their faces in due course.

Nah - I think they didn't really give a monkey for what those prays in London (and i include myself as one) got up to.

The liberal metropolitan mindset took that for a shared sense of nation. They smiled, and passed and paid - but ultimately forgot that the secret people might one day wake.

Your vision of a country split between the metropolis and the rural poor is equally skewed. You ignore the majority who are in neither category - a blind spot that is just as big as the mindset you believe has been overturned.

I'm not splitting between the metropolis and the rural poor. Splitting between London and the rest. (And, obviously, not 100% of people in each area buy into the respective mindset)

The divisions never really healed from the 1640s; it was always only a matter of time before they broke out again.

Before that really. There were definitelyissues with Flemmish immigrants "stealing our jobs" in the Tudor years

Betting Post

F1: here's my sleepy pre-race ramble, which largely consists of copy+pasting Mr. Sandpit's ideas :
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/united-states-pre-race-2016.html