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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on will Donald Trump accept the election result
Paddy Power have a market up on will Donald Trump accept the result of Presidential election, the exact wording of the bet is ‘Donald Trump to publicly confirm he accepts the result of the poll at the post election rally.’
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Does Trump have it in him to concede gracefully? If he has evidence of genuine election fraud he needs to come up with specifics quickly, or he's going to be a laughing stock by November 8th.
Clinton 44.1 .. Trump 44.3 - (538 adjusted Clinton +4)
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Clinton 307 .. Trump 181 .. Toss-Up 50
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race
PA - Clinton 49 .. Trump 39
FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 44
Via 538.
This must be over. If only she were fit to hold public office.
When the Republicans look back next year, they will surely be astonished that they managed to pick the one candidate in the whole of the US that was worse than HRC. This has been the most shockingly inept campaign since Horace Greeley ran for the Democrats in 1872 on a platform of vegetarianism before having to be sectioned at the end of it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk
Presently Trump is cremated bread.
With his inept performance in the second half of the last debate he lost his last significant opportunity to move the dial. Barring a black swan event this race is done. The question is the scale of the Clinton win and the down ballot implications of the Trump debacle.
This is my current projection - Clinton wins Obama 12 + NC and AZ but misses GA, UT and NE-CD02 - 358/180 :
http://www.270towin.com/maps/RvDN4
It's odd that no one revisited the experience of Selina Scott. She made it public knowledge years ago that he was a Savillesque sleazeball. She's an unimpeachable character witness. If she wasn't the lady we know her to be she'd have been in the US getting some serious publicity from it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3424519/The-comb-creep-hates-women-know-SELINA-SCOTT-reveals-Donald-Trump-failed-seduce-stalked-20-years.html
The two worst candidates of all time, up against each other. Pence v Kaine would have been a lot better as a contest.
If there needs to be a huge political discussion about the direction America takes, then bring on two candidates who can at least debate the issues, maybe Elizabeth Warren and Ted Cruz.
https://www.damacproperties.com/en/projects/trump-prvt-at-akoya
Christ what a lot of crying on this board, the decision has been taken for good or ill, move the fuck on.
Too big to fail, remember.
Of course, they'll announce plans to leave. Just like unions announce plans to strike unless ... Unless the governments gives them guarantees, more favourable tax perks or other advantages. They see an opportunity to make more money.
They'll just up sticks and go and take all their staff with them, no doubt. The threat is enough.
The unions used to wait until the company announced bigger profits before threatening to strike. The banks can lose billions and still pay bonuses - because they're worth it.
Lord Hill also hit out at the notion put forward by hardline Brexiteers that the EU will offer Britain favourable trade terms because it needs the UK to keep buying products like German cars and French cheese and wine.
"People here, I think, forget that for the Europeans the project, it's an emotional project, it's a political project and actually it's quite a romantic project and so if we think in the UK that ultimately economic rationalism will win out in terms of negotiation, that is to misread how the Europeans will approach the negotiation," he said.
But the first was kept off the ballot by the party machine, and the second by the members. Which merely goes to prove that both systems for choosing candidates are more broken than Jeremy Corbyn's record collection.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/302275-why-clinton-and-trump-are-in-a-close-race-in-georgia
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/10/forgetting_jerry_ford.html
From those commenting on here and elsewhere who actually have their ear to the ground in the City, there's not going to be any wholesale offshoring as we leave the EU - maybe a branch office in Dublin or Frankfurt, depending on the deal we can get as we depart, but the work is staying very much in London.
I think Trump's chances in Utah improved with when he pushed the conservative buttons effectively in the first part of the final debate. The polling is mixed but I expect Trump to prevail and Clinton to fall to third place.
I am now really hoping for a Hillary landslide, so we can watch him flounder and gasp. Dem take Texas, Alaska, Georgia etc.
Does anyone know what time the TV coverage starts? Wednesday the 9th is looking to be a busy day.
That quote gets to the heart of the matter.
"for the Europeans the project, it's an emotional project." is spot on, although it should be "For the European elite, it's an emotional project." It is too for the Internationalists, and I've no quibble with the views of the latter if they're honest. But I do wish people would be honest.
That's why the lies about the economics predicting accurately 15 years ahead (ho, ho, ho) and the concentration on the economics. Because if they mention their true intentions, they may find that sovereignty issues still matter and the pesky voters might take fright.
Why not "We want one big happy European country with one language (French?), one army one currency and one government."
Be loud, be proud.
Whichever party loses, probably the Republicans, should do something radical next time - like choosing their candidate a year early and running a 'shadow presidency' and cabinet in a similar way to the UK. Get their candidate commenting on the news every time the President says or does something.
How will a policy of not accepting the result go down with his customers?
If I had a PP account, I'd back this.
Speaking of bets from men with dubious records, I'll be looking at my pre-race piece, just as soon as the coffee kicks in.
Polls start to close around 2am UK time, and they start counting immediately. The TV networks will try and call states as quickly as possible, based on the county level counts as they come in. If it's a landslide, it could be all over bar the shouting by about 6am UK time, if it's close it will be UK lunchtime before the counts finish.
The lesson is that, for politicians (and often for people) the politics will nearly always trump the economics.
It is also worth noting that the political consequences of an economic cost from Brexit are, for Mrs May and the Tories, potentially very considerable. For the politicians of the EU, not so much. (Edit/ except perhaps in the ultimate 'EU collapses' disaster scenario and, even then, politically, we have generously stepped up to take the blame).
He's been the most successful presidential candidate for decades in terms of influencing the policy agenda for the next four years.
It's a remarkable powerplay for an independent senator from the far left - to shift the centre so far left without hemorrhaging the establishment support required to win.
Sanders would never have pivoted and consequently lost to every/any other GOP candidate - trump included.
Instead, he emerges as the biggest winner.
You might as well say: "Why aren't the anti-EU crowd honest and mention their true intentions: everyone who does not have a history in the country going back to at least William the Conqueror should be removed. Oh, and the same for anyone not wanting to declare war immediately on France."
Although TSE might favour that last clause ...
There are as many different pro-EU perspectives as there are anti-EU ones.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27865723/market?marketId=1.127658163
"We just need an uplift in nail bars and dry cleaners and no one'll notice."
I agree on that, but why should we need more people trying to sell things we don't need, to people who don't need them. "Let's a form a project group to alter the colours on this chocolate bar. It's for the greater good of the nation and for the just cause of diabetes."
You're an Internationalist and would approve the old Coca Cola advert ... "We'd like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony." .... A nice ambition, but anyone who disagrees with you is a subhuman and a racist.
Edit/ sorry, I am wrong! The reps are odds on and it is close to evens.
Edit: you edited first! Yes, Donald is 1.8 something - odds on favourite but closer than anyone expected. @Alistair's 25/1 is a great bet!
I got Trump @ 5/4 courtesy of betfair sportsbook.
*Obviously, this is fine. But it does mean we shouldn't necessarily take the Exodus of Money as gospel truth. After all, neither New York nor Singapore are members of the EU.
As we saw well during the EU referendum.
See you later guys.
Me, I'm done with betting on this charade. Grand total of £42 exposure and covered on pretty much everything bar a landslide (>5% pop vote lead) for Hillary.
Will watch with lots of popcorn as one of the two worst ever candidates becomes president-elect.
I wish I'd had more than a tenner on Corbyn first time round too, but at the time thought it was no more than a cover on the 100/1 outsider in a four horse race. Along with most others who were on here that morning.
Betting for beer money is also less stressful on the night. I'm just gonna sit down with a bottle of vodka and a large tub of popcorn, and see what happens!!
http://ebx.sh/2et6cjh
There are differing flavours of Remainers. Economic frits are the biggest group but economic forecasting is notoriously difficult. There are the Internationalists - I respect those views, but being old, I suspect they have some way to go to convince others; they know that and tend to hide their views. And there are the smug 'I know best' virtue signallers, who show their mental superiority by insulting everyone else.
I think we should take some economic migrants, although I'm not so keen on selecting those with the sharpest elbows and the money to pay their way to Calais. I'd rather select those at greatest risk who will contribute what they can.
The argument has always been dishonest because Remainers are swimming against an undercurrent of nationalism. Hence the concentration on economics. Yes, there are racists but that doesn't make the other arguments invalid. We can, in theory, vote out things we don't like. We're not yet ready for a European Superstate - perhaps we never will be.
I'd like a Catholic Caliphate but atheists aren't evil. That's democracy.
"In my 20 years of political activism, I cannot remember a time when we had such an unshared sense of who we are as a nation."
Seriously, who the hell puts up four and a half grand to win a fiver, three or four months out?
When there's no settled policy, it seems rather otiose to argue that those who voted remain ought just to shut up.
In every previous Labour leadership contest a left-winger has stood, often helped onto the ballot, half-heartedly gone through the motions and been well defeated by a mainstream candidate. At the moment that Corby was helped onto the ballot it looked like a sure fire lay.
Mr. Freggles, I'm not sure it is.
Whilst access to the Single Market may be reduced (remains to be seen) we retain significant advantages, not least of which are Common Law and the English language.
The sky is not falling in, and nor should we be complacent. We're probably in for a turbulent few years.
My re-investment of £50 on winning again, less so. Yesterday's performance against Palace was the first sign of last years team returning. Spurs away next Saturday...
There are rather uncompromising sorts on the fringes of both sides calling one another's whole groups traitors or racists. Which is tosh.
Hopefully this is just the immediate reaction to an unexpected result whereby one part of one side is devastated, and one part of the other side is drunk on triumph.
In negotiations we have no chance of getting much from the high church, who see integration as desirable and unarguable. We need to work with the mid-church - let them know that we will remain friends with the EU and work with them in ways that are to be to both our advantages - and the low church - let them know that trade and jobs will continue. We are not pulling up the drawbridge.
Most of all, we need to let it be known that it need not be a zero-sum game: both the UK and the EU can emerge from Brexit stronger and more prosperous. This is why I objected so thoroughly to comments from people who want to see the EU destroyed. That sort of talk almost guarantees us a poor settlement.
A deal with Dublin strikes me as the most likely outcome. It intrigues me that Ireland has not been as publicly aggressive as France and (to a lesser extent) Frankfurt in seeking to attract business from London
A ship in a harbour is safe. But that is not what ships are for.
Dr. Foxinsox, if only you'd tipped it!
I wish I'd put more than a few pounds on Verstappen, but can't complain too much about a 250/1 winner in about a week.
Edit/ there is also the 60%-ish of the population who apparently do not understand percentages or odds.
I have not seen any evidence that there is a plan, or that May is capable of forming one. In the absence of a plan the outcome defaults to Hard Brexit. Get used to it.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/10/22/millionaire-donor-arron-banks-backs-kassam-ukip-leader/
(CiF is imploding with the cognitive dissonance about the "racist" kippers having a brown person in charge)
Lots of us had the 1/8 on NOM on the morning of the election and scrambled to unwind it after the Nuneaton result came in and the majority looked possible.
From representing an outgoing creative powerhouse 'brand UK' has become a symbol of UKIP 'Little Englanders'. Why should those of us in the service sector accept the damage to our livelihoods and the country's livelihood by the votes of some very ignorant people who have no idea of the implications of what they were doing or how the country makes its money.
May be exaggerating just a tad on that one