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SystemSystem Posts: 12,863
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexiteers, Juncker’s fifth columnists?

Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheKingofLangleyTheKingofLangley Posts: 70
    Interesting piece!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    New Jersey - Farleigh Dickinson/Public Mind - Sample 579 - 12-16 Oct

    Clinton 51 .. Trump 40

    http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/161018/
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,893
    FPT:

    God bless case law.
    The Article 50 appeal is currently discussing lobster farming in the 19th century and OGH has just tweeted something about Henry VIII and the Privy Council.

    Those tedious Eurocrats could never understand the wonderful tatterdemalion that is our constitution.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    ARIZONA

    Clinton 39 (2 pt lead)
    Trump 37
    Johnson 8
    Stein 3

    HighGround Public Affairs poll of AZ voters Oct. 14.
    https://t.co/bkUCaUed2S

    UTAH

    Trump 30 (1 pt lead)
    McMullin 29
    Clinton 28
    Johnson 5
    Stein 1

    Rasmussen Reports, likely voters, Oct. 14-16.
    https://t.co/HPrvkfsfp2

    COLORADO
    Trump there today:

    Clinton 45 (7 pts up)
    Trump 37
    Johnson 10
    Stein 3

    Q poll of likely voters Oct 10-16
    https://t.co/vaO45sbZmN
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,424
    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT:

    God bless case law.
    The Article 50 appeal is currently discussing lobster farming in the 19th century and OGH has just tweeted something about Henry VIII and the Privy Council.

    Those tedious Eurocrats could never understand the wonderful tatterdemalion that is our constitution.

    Theresa May = Henry VIII

    Both broke with (the treaty of) Rome.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,210
    F##king hell, some of the second lots of children look even older than yesterdays intake....one has wrinkles and looks like is about to go grey....no sign of what most people would think as kids.

    Apparently the Home Office says, may look older 'because war has toughened them up'.

    What a total farce.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3847262/They-look-older-war-toughened-Home-Office-claims-Calais-child-migrants-aged-conflict-REFUSE-carry-intrusive-checks.html
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    I agree. IF we were to go back into the EU, then we should go in properly and not dick about on the edge.

    But I don't see it happening.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,515
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    F##king hell, some of the second lots of children look even older than yesterdays intake....one has wrinkles and looks like is about to go grey....no sign of what most people would think as kids.

    Apparently the Home Office says, may look older 'because war has toughened them up'.

    What a total farce.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3847262/They-look-older-war-toughened-Home-Office-claims-Calais-child-migrants-aged-conflict-REFUSE-carry-intrusive-checks.html

    The other elephant in the room is that, so far, all the children are male.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,893
    On topic:

    The logical architecture for Europe is:

    an outer ring focused on trade liberalisation, education and cultural ties, and human rights

    A middle ring focused on defence cooperation, and maybe energy policy and climate change

    And an inner ring with a single currency and fiscal union. This latter could be called the EU.

    The UK should be trying to facilitate this architecture through Brexit, for ours and Europe's sustainable future.

    Seen against this potential outcome, there would be no interest or compelling reasons to rejoin the EU.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Typo in article "as an side". Otherwise, excellent trolling.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,893
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT:

    God bless case law.
    The Article 50 appeal is currently discussing lobster farming in the 19th century and OGH has just tweeted something about Henry VIII and the Privy Council.

    Those tedious Eurocrats could never understand the wonderful tatterdemalion that is our constitution.

    Theresa May = Henry VIII

    Both broke with (the treaty of) Rome.....
    so who's Thomas Cromwell?
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    I think the best on topic response is "Do not feed"
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Gardenwalker said:

    On topic:

    The logical architecture for Europe is:

    an outer ring focused on trade liberalisation, education and cultural ties, and human rights

    A middle ring focused on defence cooperation, and maybe energy policy and climate change

    And an inner ring with a single currency and fiscal union. This latter could be called the EU.

    The UK should be trying to facilitate this architecture through Brexit, for ours and Europe's sustainable future.

    Seen against this potential outcome, there would be no interest or compelling reasons to rejoin the EU.

    In which ring would you place freedom of movement? And the supremacy of a European court?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    FPT, for Scott
    david_herdson said:

    Scott_P said:

    david_herdson said:

    I missed the first two times you asked. What are your terms, conditions and stake?

    See my interleaved discussion with Philip

    Three different posters challenged my question about the Government losing the court case, so I asked all 3 if they wanted the same wager

    The terms were on the outcome of the case, now clarified to mean the current High Court case, not any subsequent appeal.

    £10 charity.
    I'm not interested in a charity bet but I'll have a tenner with you directly at evens if you like, on the current High Court case.

    I pay you if the decision is that parliament has to vote in order that Article 50 is invoked; you pay me if it's that parliament does not have to?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National - Millennial Voters 18-34 - USA Today/Rock The Vote - Sample 1,020 - 11-13 Oct

    Clinton 68 .. Trump 20

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301481-poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-48-points-among-millennials
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    GDP Growth Rate in the Euro Area averaged 0.37 percent from 1995 until 2016
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth
    Why will the Eurozone suddenly start performing well?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,424
    Gardenwalker said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT:

    God bless case law.
    The Article 50 appeal is currently discussing lobster farming in the 19th century and OGH has just tweeted something about Henry VIII and the Privy Council.

    Those tedious Eurocrats could never understand the wonderful tatterdemalion that is our constitution.

    Theresa May = Henry VIII

    Both broke with (the treaty of) Rome.....
    so who's Thomas Cromwell?
    The way things are going, Philip Hammond.

    Ends up getting executed, ans the Henry/Theresa ends up regretting it and blaming their ministers for bringing false charges against Phil/Thomas
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,893
    Anorak said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    On topic:

    The logical architecture for Europe is:

    an outer ring focused on trade liberalisation, education and cultural ties, and human rights

    A middle ring focused on defence cooperation, and maybe energy policy and climate change

    And an inner ring with a single currency and fiscal union. This latter could be called the EU.

    The UK should be trying to facilitate this architecture through Brexit, for ours and Europe's sustainable future.

    Seen against this potential outcome, there would be no interest or compelling reasons to rejoin the EU.

    In which ring would you place freedom of movement? And the supremacy of a European court?
    The ECHR would be outer ring.
    The ECJ would be inner ring.

    FOM starts in the inner ring and weakens progressively, perhaps ad hoc. It does not need to follow symmetrically.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    edited October 2016
    Do we have to be exposed to TSE's subversive nightmares? Has he turned anti-Tory because he thinks that Saint Theresa doesn't like people like him?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,467
    Hold on, I thought that photo was just from a bad nightmare I had a few months ago :o
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,424
    Anorak said:

    Typo in article "as an side". Otherwise, excellent trolling.

    How very dare you madam. I do not troll. I offer excellent political insights.

    Time for one of those irregular verb lessons.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,579
    Excellent piece, and articulates a huge concern of mine. Most of the Leavers will have croaked in a decade. Who knows what the attitude of future generations will be - those whose judgements were never tainted by end-of-Empire hang-ups, 1970s sitcoms and so forth. It's perfectly possible that our descendants will want to revisit EU membership. Sadly, for them, it will never be on the beneficial terms we enjoyed but then squandered. The terrible consequence of a truculent whim.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/788358583327088641
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    http://order-order.com/2016/10/18/kate-hoey-challenges-benn-brexit-committee/
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,893
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT:

    God bless case law.
    The Article 50 appeal is currently discussing lobster farming in the 19th century and OGH has just tweeted something about Henry VIII and the Privy Council.

    Those tedious Eurocrats could never understand the wonderful tatterdemalion that is our constitution.

    Theresa May = Henry VIII

    Both broke with (the treaty of) Rome.....
    so who's Thomas Cromwell?
    The way things are going, Philip Hammond.

    Ends up getting executed, ans the Henry/Theresa ends up regretting it and blaming their ministers for bringing false charges against Phil/Thomas
    Boris Johnson potentially fits the Henry VIII bill better. Breaks with Rome on a matter of personal convenience; goes through "companions" like toilet paper, but somehow represents "Merrie England".
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/788325931077304320

    I have a feeling of De Ja Vu
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    On topic, an interesting piece but one which in listing the UK's achievements within the EU, doesn't mention 'trying to keep it in some kind of contact with reality'. The danger of the likes of Juncker pushing ahead with grand projects is that it encourages extremism across the board and could lead to the collapse of the whole thing.

    The initial public reaction to Brexit from the rEU has been to increase support for it, that's true. Whether that will continue over coming years is a different matter.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    david_herdson said:

    FPT, for Scott

    Done. See previous thread
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,210
    edited October 2016
    619 said:

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/788358583327088641

    Looking at that photo, I reckon the Home Office would still classify him as a kid.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,893
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    619 said:

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/788358583327088641

    Looking at that photo, I reckon the Home Office would still classify him as a kid.
    LOL. About 15 I'd say. Been through the wars though.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Sadly, for them, it will never be on the beneficial terms we enjoyed but then squandered. The terrible consequence of a truculent whim''

    I see the remainer Mystic Meg syndrome has returned. Reassuringly for you, this prediction may be complete and utter horsesh8t, just like your predictions the UK would explode one day after we decided to leave.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National - Rasmussen - Sample 1,500 - 13-17 Oct

    Clinton 42 .. Trump 41

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct18
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    619 said:

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/788358583327088641

    There's not enough tin foil in the world to respond to that.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Sure, demographic changes might make us a nation proEU again... in forty years. I don't see the consensus changing in less than that, once the status quo is out.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,105
    SeanT said:

    By the time this might happen we will all be living in the tropical Antarctic as slaves to robot overlords run by AmaGoogleFacebook.

    Next.

    The public are fickle, who knows what they will do next week let alone next year. 58% of Leave voters believe they are going to be better off after Brexit - does anyone seriously believe that that is going to be the case in the short or even medium term?. Even the optimists in the die-hard camp seem to think we are going to get 5 years economic grief
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Excellent piece, and articulates a huge concern of mine. Most of the Leavers will have croaked in a decade. Who knows what the attitude of future generations will be - those whose judgements were never tainted by end-of-Empire hang-ups, 1970s sitcoms and so forth. It's perfectly possible that our descendants will want to revisit EU membership. Sadly, for them, it will never be on the beneficial terms we enjoyed but then squandered. The terrible consequence of a truculent whim.

    People get wiser as they get older and acquire knowledge and experience.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Serious question. I can understand why and how you are disgruntled, but some day in the future, for your own benefit, and that of the country, you and your pals will need to reconcile yourself to the change and make the best of it.

    Will that be before or after your conversion to the Bitterest Bremorse ever witnessed?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/788368905471463428
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,219
    OllyT said:

    SeanT said:

    By the time this might happen we will all be living in the tropical Antarctic as slaves to robot overlords run by AmaGoogleFacebook.

    Next.

    The public are fickle, who knows what they will do next week let alone next year. 58% of Leave voters believe they are going to be better off after Brexit - does anyone seriously believe that that is going to be the case in the short or even medium term?. Even the optimists in the die-hard camp seem to think we are going to get 5 years economic grief
    Nobody doubts that we are likely to better off. The question is whether we would have been better off still, had we remained within the EU.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Excellent piece, and articulates a huge concern of mine. Most of the Leavers will have croaked in a decade. Who knows what the attitude of future generations will be - those whose judgements were never tainted by end-of-Empire hang-ups, 1970s sitcoms and so forth. It's perfectly possible that our descendants will want to revisit EU membership. Sadly, for them, it will never be on the beneficial terms we enjoyed but then squandered. The terrible consequence of a truculent whim.

    People get wiser as they get older and acquire knowledge and experience.
    They also acquire a fear of change, with change being exemplified by foreigners.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited October 2016
    ''I have a feeling of De Ja Vu.''

    Here's the thing. The people I work with think I didn;t vote for Brexit. I told them I didn;t vote at all.

    And yet Brexit is far less contentious than supporting Donald Trump. Partly because people like 619 have made it so.

    And so who knows what the size of the shy Trump vote is. Is it an ice cube. Or is it an ice berg? we won't know until November 09 and no amount of JackW poll posting is going to change that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,424
    Sounds familiar

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/788365749429690368
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,467
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/37691574 oof !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,153
    Summing up the article in one phrase, "wishful thinking".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,467
    taffys said:

    ''I have a feeling of De Ja Vu.''

    Here's the thing. The people I work with think I didn;t vote for Brexit. I told them I didn;t vote at all.

    And yet Brexit is far less contentious than supporting Donald Trump. Partly because people like 619 have made it so.

    And so who knows what the size of the shy Trump vote is. Is it an ice cube. Or is it an ice berg? we won't know until November 09 and no amount of JackW poll posting is going to change that.

    An unknown known, for sure.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2016
    JackW said:

    National - Millennial Voters 18-34 - USA Today/Rock The Vote - Sample 1,020 - 11-13 Oct

    Clinton 68 .. Trump 20

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301481-poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-48-points-among-millennials

    Blimey Clinton's Millenial problem is worse than her Women problem.

    This adds 18-34s to Latinos as Demographics with big differences from other polls for USC/LA Times.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Re: bets. It's illegal to gamble in most states of the US.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Gardenwalker said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT:

    God bless case law.
    The Article 50 appeal is currently discussing lobster farming in the 19th century and OGH has just tweeted something about Henry VIII and the Privy Council.

    Those tedious Eurocrats could never understand the wonderful tatterdemalion that is our constitution.

    Theresa May = Henry VIII

    Both broke with (the treaty of) Rome.....
    so who's Thomas Cromwell?
    Cameron.

    The analogy of TM as H8 doesn't really work all that well because TM wasn't PM pre the decision to seek divorce.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,424
    MaxPB said:

    Summing up the article in one phrase, "wishful thinking".

    Wishful thinking ?

    I don't wish to be a part of a USE.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    EU commish of security doing his best to sell FoM to the Brits.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37689210
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Make of this what you will - 99% don't have a vote

    https://youtu.be/In4KVZ95jY0
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    taffys said:

    ''I have a feeling of De Ja Vu.''

    Here's the thing. The people I work with think I didn;t vote for Brexit. I told them I didn;t vote at all.

    And yet Brexit is far less contentious than supporting Donald Trump. Partly because people like 619 have made it so.

    And so who knows what the size of the shy Trump vote is. Is it an ice cube. Or is it an ice berg? we won't know until November 09 and no amount of JackW poll posting is going to change that.

    An unknown known, for sure.
    It's illegal to bet in many US states.

    You lot still Trump ramping?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,424
    Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    taffys said:

    ''I have a feeling of De Ja Vu.''

    Here's the thing. The people I work with think I didn;t vote for Brexit. I told them I didn;t vote at all.

    And yet Brexit is far less contentious than supporting Donald Trump. Partly because people like 619 have made it so.

    And so who knows what the size of the shy Trump vote is. Is it an ice cube. Or is it an ice berg? we won't know until November 09 and no amount of JackW poll posting is going to change that.

    Wah wah, why are people calling me a racist for voting for a racist?

    wah wah wah
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,467
    Jobabob said:

    Re: bets. It's illegal to gamble in most states of the US.

    It has lead to:

    Huge overrounds at casinos on horse-racing (As they're a monopoly)
    "Prediction" websites where odds are expressed as %s and bets as 'contracts'
    Pay to play 'Fantasy football' leagues.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,893
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election.

    Something's going on there and we are too busy exchanging Brexit sniper fire and avoiding Plato's David Icke links.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,467
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election.

    It's going to be tremendously profitable for Ladbrokes.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Excellent piece, and articulates a huge concern of mine. Most of the Leavers will have croaked in a decade. Who knows what the attitude of future generations will be - those whose judgements were never tainted by end-of-Empire hang-ups, 1970s sitcoms and so forth. It's perfectly possible that our descendants will want to revisit EU membership. Sadly, for them, it will never be on the beneficial terms we enjoyed but then squandered. The terrible consequence of a truculent whim.

    I did write a piece along these lines before the vote:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/19/britains-eu-hokey-cokey-what-would-in-again-look-like-and-why-isnt-remain-talking-about-it/
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    taffys said:

    Here's the thing. The people I work with think I didn;t vote for Brexit. I told them I didn;t vote at all.

    And yet Brexit is far less contentious than supporting Donald Trump. Partly because people like 619 have made it so.

    And so who knows what the size of the shy Trump vote is. Is it an ice cube. Or is it an ice berg? we won't know until November 09 and no amount of JackW poll posting is going to change that.

    You assume a "shy Trump vote" just as in 08 we were told of the Bradley effect and in 12 that Obama couldn't repeat the turnout of 08.

    Indeed we may see a shy Clinton effect - a differential turnout of women and Hispanic voters. Indeed the evidence of early voting and enthusiasm for Trump among GOP voters is that the Donald is holed below the waterline.

    Where is Trump's path to 270 ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Ha, ha. Naughty lad.

    Once we are out, we are out; and that will be that. If it all goes wrong, it will be the Tories who pay the price.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,939
    Points for effort, TSE!!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,893
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election.

    A Tory defeat there would be stunning, and would change the Brexit debate, by seriously weakening TMay.

    But I don't believe it will happen for a moment. Tories are miles ahead in the polls. It will be a solid majority.

    Dream on, TSE.
    Agree, but an utter trouncing of Corbyn might put the pressure back on, and maybe the media will give Farron his 15 minutes.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    taffys said:

    ''I have a feeling of De Ja Vu.''

    Here's the thing. The people I work with think I didn;t vote for Brexit. I told them I didn;t vote at all.

    And yet Brexit is far less contentious than supporting Donald Trump. Partly because people like 619 have made it so.

    And so who knows what the size of the shy Trump vote is. Is it an ice cube. Or is it an ice berg? we won't know until November 09 and no amount of JackW poll posting is going to change that.

    Despite the enormous societal pressure against them enough people managed to tell Opinium they were going to vote Leave that they said leave would win.

    Enough people managed to summon up the courage to tell TNS that they predicted a Leave win.

    The most important thing when trying to work out the shy Trumpeter effect is Likely Voter screens in the US heavily squeeze the Democratic vote. Pollsters adjustments reduce Hilary's vote, not increase it. There was a poll last month where pre LV screen Hilary had a 15 point lead that got LV screened down to 6. Higher propensity to vote Republican is already factored in.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TSE has well and truly lost his marbles. How many people in the Republic of Ireland wish to rejoin the UK, or Mongolia China?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2016
    Gardenwalker said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election.

    Something's going on there and we are too busy exchanging Brexit sniper fire and avoiding Plato's David Icke links.
    I like that. Perhaps instead of platonic, we could use 'Platonicke' to describe obsessive behaviour which continues in the face of derision from all sides?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,089
    TSE should give up his day job and become a stand-up comedian!

    :lol::lol::lol:
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MSNBC presenter seems to have a mike drop moment

    https://youtu.be/9uYSAeIbLlk
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,710
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Excellent piece, and articulates a huge concern of mine. Most of the Leavers will have croaked in a decade. Who knows what the attitude of future generations will be - those whose judgements were never tainted by end-of-Empire hang-ups, 1970s sitcoms and so forth. It's perfectly possible that our descendants will want to revisit EU membership. Sadly, for them, it will never be on the beneficial terms we enjoyed but then squandered. The terrible consequence of a truculent whim.

    How blindingly arrogant to think we should have beneficial terms. Why should we have benefits over Germany, France, Hungary or Portugal?

    I'm happy to be in or out. Not the stupid and unworkable half way in and half way out always in a huff with the direction of the EU position of the last decade or two.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,424
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election.

    A Tory defeat there would be stunning, and would change the Brexit debate, by seriously weakening TMay.

    But I don't believe it will happen for a moment. Tories are miles ahead in the polls. It will be a solid majority.

    Dream on, TSE.
    JohnO, Primus inter pares of PB Tories says he wouldn't surprised by a Lib Dem gain in Witney.

    The Tory campaign has been interesting. At the weekend they wheeled out both David Cameron and Theresa May.

    Sitting PMs seldom campaign in by elections.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,089
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT:

    God bless case law.
    The Article 50 appeal is currently discussing lobster farming in the 19th century and OGH has just tweeted something about Henry VIII and the Privy Council.

    Those tedious Eurocrats could never understand the wonderful tatterdemalion that is our constitution.

    Theresa May = Henry VIII

    Both broke with (the treaty of) Rome.....
    The Treaty of Rome is a such a 1950s throwback.

    Brexit will propel this nation into the 21st century.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,396
    Good grief, what a load of baloney.

    I remember the days when you were talking about plumping for Leave....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,089
    Casino_Royale said:

    Points for effort, TSE!!

    Well to be kind to TSE, he did publish my thread within 5 days of receiving it.

    Respec'!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    You assume a "shy Trump vote" just as in 08 we were told of the Bradley effect and in 12 that Obama couldn't repeat the turnout of 08

    You may well be right, but I would argue that this election is more contentious than any in many decades.

    I'm just going by the logic that made me money in 2015 and 2016. But after 619's comment, that's the last I will post on this topic before the election.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,893
    edited October 2016
    Anorak said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election.

    Something's going on there and we are too busy exchanging Brexit sniper fire and avoiding Plato's David Icke links.
    I like that. Perhaps instead of platonic, we could use 'Platonicke' to describe obsessive behaviour which continues in the face of derision from all sides?
    Actually what did happen to @hunchman?
    Finally found what he was looking for, beyond the ol' Finchley Road?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,467
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election.

    A Tory defeat there would be stunning, and would change the Brexit debate, by seriously weakening TMay.

    But I don't believe it will happen for a moment. Tories are miles ahead in the polls. It will be a solid majority.

    Dream on, TSE.
    JohnO, Primus inter pares of PB Tories says he wouldn't surprised by a Lib Dem gain in Witney.

    The Tory campaign has been interesting. At the weekend they wheeled out both David Cameron and Theresa May.

    Sitting PMs seldom campaign in by elections.
    Wishful thinking 1-25 Christchurch II 25-1
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,579
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election.

    I think the Tories will be all right. However, these are strange times. The voters of Witney have had the PM as their MP so perhaps they feel they're allowed a bit of naughtiness. Voters sometimes do unexpected things just for sh*ts and giggles.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,121
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT:

    God bless case law.
    The Article 50 appeal is currently discussing lobster farming in the 19th century and OGH has just tweeted something about Henry VIII and the Privy Council.

    Those tedious Eurocrats could never understand the wonderful tatterdemalion that is our constitution.

    Theresa May = Henry VIII

    Both broke with (the treaty of) Rome.....
    The Treaty of Rome is a such a 1950s throwback.

    Brexit will propel this nation into the 21st century.
    We used to already be in the 21st Century.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,210
    edited October 2016
    Jobabob said:



    It's illegal to bet in many US states.

    No it isn't. Federally it is legal, and possible to bet I believe in every state except Utah and Hawaii. However, in most it is restricted to small numbers of physical locations.

    Online, it isn't illegal for individuals to place wagers, what is illegal is for providers to process payments. Even so, the amount of money bet by Americans each weekend on US sports is enormous.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    logical_song said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT:

    God bless case law.
    The Article 50 appeal is currently discussing lobster farming in the 19th century and OGH has just tweeted something about Henry VIII and the Privy Council.

    Those tedious Eurocrats could never understand the wonderful tatterdemalion that is our constitution.

    Theresa May = Henry VIII

    Both broke with (the treaty of) Rome.....
    The Treaty of Rome is a such a 1950s throwback.

    Brexit will propel this nation into the 21st century.
    We used to already be in the 21st Century.

    We were the future once?

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    RoyalBlue said:

    TSE has well and truly lost his marbles. How many people in the Republic of Ireland wish to rejoin the UK, or Mongolia China?

    Was Mongolia ever part of China?

    Newfoundland voluntarily opted back in to direct imperial control in the 1930s having previously had 'responsible government'.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,121
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election.

    Ladbrokes 10/1 LibDem , 1/25 Tories
    William Hill 12/1 LibDem, 1/50 Tories
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Gardenwalker said:

    Those tedious Eurocrats could never understand the wonderful tatterdemalion that is our constitution.

    Oo new word for the day thanks :smile:

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,787
    SeanT said:

    OllyT said:

    SeanT said:

    By the time this might happen we will all be living in the tropical Antarctic as slaves to robot overlords run by AmaGoogleFacebook.

    Next.

    The public are fickle, who knows what they will do next week let alone next year. 58% of Leave voters believe they are going to be better off after Brexit - does anyone seriously believe that that is going to be the case in the short or even medium term?. Even the optimists in the die-hard camp seem to think we are going to get 5 years economic grief
    Total misunderstanding of human nature. If it's a Soft Brexit and the suffering is minimal then people will rejoice and Leave will become MORE popular.

    If it's a Hard Brexit because the UK and EU fall out, then the natural reaction of most Brits will be to say Fuck Them, We Can Cope, the Blitz Spirit, etc etc, and euroscepticism will surge even more. Remainers really WILL be seen as traitors.

    There is no immediate way back into the EU for a generation, or two. Looking at the polling on membership in places like Norway or Switzerland, I'd say we won't ever go back, in the far and foreseeable future.
    Agree, but only after the next few months, before the options of Soft, semi-soft, withdrawal, etc are fully sorted. If *all* options look dicey, then pubic support for back into EU may get a surge.

    Then again, if the EU is seen as being the barrier to a 'good' deal, then Euroscepticism and leave may increase.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    AFP
    #BREAKING Belgium detains four on terror charges after raids: statement
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    619 said:

    taffys said:

    ''I have a feeling of De Ja Vu.''

    Here's the thing. The people I work with think I didn;t vote for Brexit. I told them I didn;t vote at all.

    And yet Brexit is far less contentious than supporting Donald Trump. Partly because people like 619 have made it so.

    And so who knows what the size of the shy Trump vote is. Is it an ice cube. Or is it an ice berg? we won't know until November 09 and no amount of JackW poll posting is going to change that.

    Wah wah, why are people calling me a racist for voting for a racist?

    wah wah wah
    You would vote for Hillary Clinton - so just accept you are voting for a racist. http://www.infowars.com/hillary-called-black-servant-the-n-word-claims-former-clinton-chef/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,467
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jobabob said:



    It's illegal to bet in many US states.

    No it isn't. Federally it is legal, and possible to bet I believe in every state except Utah and Hawaii. However, in most it is restricted to small numbers of physical locations.

    Online, it isn't illegal for individuals to place wagers, what is illegal is for providers to process payments. Even so, the amount of money bet by Americans each weekend on US sports is enormous.
    Pay to play NFL in particular.
    It's a game that lends itself tremendously well to a fantasy structure tbh.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,760
    david_herdson said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TSE has well and truly lost his marbles. How many people in the Republic of Ireland wish to rejoin the UK, or Mongolia China?

    Was Mongolia ever part of China?

    Newfoundland voluntarily opted back in to direct imperial control in the 1930s having previously had 'responsible government'.
    Inner Mongolia is still part of China. Outer Mongolia, which was de facto independent although nominally still part of China, held a fake referendum in the 1940's as part of a deal between the Nationalist government and the Soviet Union. China would allow the Soviet Union to effectively annexe Mongolia in exchange for the Soviet Union covertly supporting the Nationlists in its civil war with the Communists.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Scots chose to be taken over by the English (they didn't call it that, but that's what it was). The UK returning to the EU would only occur in substantially similar circumstances - ie we were completely broke.

    Britain will not be accepted back by the EU unless it is clear that Britain's wayward spirit is broken. That will only happen in the case of overwhelming catastrophe.

    Brexit means Brexit.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Casino_Royale said:

    Points for effort, TSE!!

    But nul points for the quality of his French.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,141
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election.

    A Tory defeat there would be stunning, and would change the Brexit debate, by seriously weakening TMay.
    Chop chop LDs, get that on a leaflet and stuffed in the letterboxes of Tory remoaners post-haste.
  • rrrtttrrrttt Posts: 1
    Wishful thinking on the part of the Author?! Dream on.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm so hoping for a Lib Dem victory in the by-election, if only so that we can note that Witney is saving all its love for EU.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,424
    SeanT said:

    Strange Brexit effect I have just noticed

    Right now I am simultaneously working with French and Australians, based in London, working on Times travel trips to France and Australia.

    Suddenly I feel an awful lot closer to the Aussies, and less close to the French. Poignant.

    Disgusting behaviour from you.

    How can any true Englishman ever describe himself as close to the French?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Scots chose to be taken over by the English (they didn't call it that, but that's what it was). The UK returning to the EU would only occur in substantially similar circumstances - ie we were completely broke.

    Britain will not be accepted back by the EU unless it is clear that Britain's wayward spirit is broken. That will only happen in the case of overwhelming catastrophe.

    Brexit means Brexit.

    What id there is no UK?

    Presumably an independent Scotland would be back in asap and Northern Ireland - once back with the Republic - would automatically join. In truth, the EU's UK problem is essentially an English one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,424
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Points for effort, TSE!!

    But nul points for the quality of his French.
    I know, I'm using the Cajun version I kept on hearing in New Orleans.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    SeanT said:

    david_herdson said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TSE has well and truly lost his marbles. How many people in the Republic of Ireland wish to rejoin the UK, or Mongolia China?

    Was Mongolia ever part of China?

    Newfoundland voluntarily opted back in to direct imperial control in the 1930s having previously had 'responsible government'.
    Uhm, Mongolia TOOK OVER China for many centuries. They WERE China.
    Yes, but in the context of RoyalBlue's original point, that would be "how many people in China would wish to rejoin Mongolia", not the other way round?

    As an aside, I think to say that 'they were China' probably over-eggs it. They conquered China militarily and imposed a ruling caste but their lasting legacy was transient and ultimately, Chinese culture subsumed them.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    weejonnie said:

    619 said:

    taffys said:

    ''I have a feeling of De Ja Vu.''

    Here's the thing. The people I work with think I didn;t vote for Brexit. I told them I didn;t vote at all.

    And yet Brexit is far less contentious than supporting Donald Trump. Partly because people like 619 have made it so.

    And so who knows what the size of the shy Trump vote is. Is it an ice cube. Or is it an ice berg? we won't know until November 09 and no amount of JackW poll posting is going to change that.

    Wah wah, why are people calling me a racist for voting for a racist?

    wah wah wah
    You would vote for Hillary Clinton - so just accept you are voting for a racist. http://www.infowars.com/hillary-called-black-servant-the-n-word-claims-former-clinton-chef/
    That completely reliable infowars link has completely changed by mind. Compared to Trumps extremely public racism.

    No more credible evidence?
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Scots chose to be taken over by the English (they didn't call it that, but that's what it was). The UK returning to the EU would only occur in substantially similar circumstances - ie we were completely broke.

    Britain will not be accepted back by the EU unless it is clear that Britain's wayward spirit is broken. That will only happen in the case of overwhelming catastrophe.

    Brexit means Brexit.

    If we were completely broke, I doubt that the EU would want us back.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,210
    edited October 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jobabob said:



    It's illegal to bet in many US states.

    No it isn't. Federally it is legal, and possible to bet I believe in every state except Utah and Hawaii. However, in most it is restricted to small numbers of physical locations.

    Online, it isn't illegal for individuals to place wagers, what is illegal is for providers to process payments. Even so, the amount of money bet by Americans each weekend on US sports is enormous.
    Pay to play NFL in particular.
    It's a game that lends itself tremendously well to a fantasy structure tbh.
    Yes, there are also massive carve outs, e.g. DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports), which nothing more than sports betting with specific criteria on how you have to play your wager i.e. you have to chose a team of players from those in action that day, rather than being able to bet on team vs team action.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,424
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm so hoping for a Lib Dem victory in the by-election, if only so that we can note that Witney is saving all its love for EU.

    Can I nick that for tonight's thread?
This discussion has been closed.

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