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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexiteers, Juncker’s fifth columnists?

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I'm so hoping for a Lib Dem victory in the by-election, if only so that we can note that Witney is saving all its love for EU.

    Can I nick that for tonight's thread?
    Be my guest.
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    I'm so hoping for a Lib Dem victory in the by-election, if only so that we can note that Witney is saving all its love for EU.

    Can I nick that for tonight's thread?
    Be my guest.
    Ta
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,395

    The Scots chose to be taken over by the English (they didn't call it that, but that's what it was). The UK returning to the EU would only occur in substantially similar circumstances - ie we were completely broke.

    Britain will not be accepted back by the EU unless it is clear that Britain's wayward spirit is broken. That will only happen in the case of overwhelming catastrophe.

    Brexit means Brexit.

    I'd rather choke upon my own blood upon the ground than go back, to paraphrase Churchill.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited October 2016

    SeanT said:

    Strange Brexit effect I have just noticed

    Right now I am simultaneously working with French and Australians, based in London, working on Times travel trips to France and Australia.

    Suddenly I feel an awful lot closer to the Aussies, and less close to the French. Poignant.

    Disgusting behaviour from you.

    How can any true Englishman ever describe himself as close to the French?
    28156 people live in Dover, so just under half of them being male, say 75% over 18 so 10347 could I suppose.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,735
    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    FF43 said:

    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.

    I blame Dyson.

    Gets coat.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,395

    The Scots chose to be taken over by the English (they didn't call it that, but that's what it was). The UK returning to the EU would only occur in substantially similar circumstances - ie we were completely broke.

    Britain will not be accepted back by the EU unless it is clear that Britain's wayward spirit is broken. That will only happen in the case of overwhelming catastrophe.

    Brexit means Brexit.

    What id there is no UK?

    Presumably an independent Scotland would be back in asap and Northern Ireland - once back with the Republic - would automatically join. In truth, the EU's UK problem is essentially an English one.
    And Welsh.

    I don't think Scotland is innately europhile, the euro is hardly more popular up there, and it was arguably more eurosceptic than England in the late 70s and early 80s.

    The main difference is that Scotland hasn't experienced anything like the same level of immigration, and the EU was a convenient international platform for a newly independent Scotland to make its voice heard again.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    RoyalBlue said:

    TSE has well and truly lost his marbles. How many people in the Republic of Ireland wish to rejoin the UK, or Mongolia China?

    It has happened before (of a sort). TSE, being learned in classical stuff, might even have been thinking of it, though I suspect it's a little after his usual period:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groans_of_the_Britons
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079

    The Scots chose to be taken over by the English (they didn't call it that, but that's what it was). The UK returning to the EU would only occur in substantially similar circumstances - ie we were completely broke.

    Britain will not be accepted back by the EU unless it is clear that Britain's wayward spirit is broken. That will only happen in the case of overwhelming catastrophe.

    Brexit means Brexit.

    What id there is no UK?

    Presumably an independent Scotland would be back in asap and Northern Ireland - once back with the Republic - would automatically join. In truth, the EU's UK problem is essentially an English one.
    Just as the UK's devolution problem is essentially an English one.

    The end of empire only went as far as the borders of the UK - not far enough for us to be fully reborn as a modern nation.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857

    I'm so hoping for a Lib Dem victory in the by-election, if only so that we can note that Witney is saving all its love for EU.

    Hot damn, that's good.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,734
    There, there, there. I'm sure Prime Minister Osborne will sort it all out......
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    RoyalBlue said:

    TSE has well and truly lost his marbles. How many people in the Republic of Ireland wish to rejoin the UK, or Mongolia China?

    It has happened before (of a sort). TSE, being learned in classical stuff, might even have been thinking of it, though I suspect it's a little after his usual period:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groans_of_the_Britons
    Thank you David.

    I see to have struck a nerve with leavers with this thread.

    I did post a trigger warning on the last thread for them.
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    After campaigning so hard in relation to kids in the jungle, the BBC seem surprisingly quiet about the fact they have started arriving. I have yet to see them show the Getty pictures on their website. Strange.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.

    Nonsense. We face exactly the same dilemma as Switzerland and Norway. Liberal, free trading nations, like us, right next to an enormous economic bloc struggling to become a superstate, which their voters do not want to be a part of.

    This is why we will end up with a solution similar to Switzerland and Norway. Some kind of looser free trading zone.

    Switzerland and Norway are richer than any country inside the EU, bar Luxembourg.
    Who is the Norwegian Nicola Stugeon? The Swiss Gerry Adams?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,735
    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.

    Nonsense. We face exactly the same dilemma as Switzerland and Norway. Liberal, free trading nations, like us, right next to an enormous economic bloc struggling to become a superstate, which their voters do not want to be a part of.

    This is why we will end up with a solution similar to Switzerland and Norway. Some kind of looser free trading zone.

    Switzerland and Norway are richer than any country inside the EU, bar Luxembourg.
    Maybe. Ultimately both Norway and Switzerland are prepared to outsource their external relationships to the EU. Norway fairly contentedly; Switzerland with reluctance. Would the UK be prepared to do that? I doubt it.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    Scott_P said:
    Sadly no early payout on Florida or North Carolina ;(
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    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sadly no early payout on Florida or North Carolina ;(
    Or on the next President being a woman.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sadly no early payout on Florida or North Carolina ;(
    They clearly didn't take that much on the market, or they played it badly, interesting.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,419
    Government will 'very likely' hold a vote on the Brexit deal.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37691270
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857

    The Scots chose to be taken over by the English (they didn't call it that, but that's what it was). The UK returning to the EU would only occur in substantially similar circumstances - ie we were completely broke.

    Britain will not be accepted back by the EU unless it is clear that Britain's wayward spirit is broken. That will only happen in the case of overwhelming catastrophe.

    Brexit means Brexit.

    What id there is no UK?

    Presumably an independent Scotland would be back in asap and Northern Ireland - once back with the Republic - would automatically join. In truth, the EU's UK problem is essentially an English one.
    Just as the UK's devolution problem is essentially an English one.

    The end of empire only went as far as the borders of the UK - not far enough for us to be fully reborn as a modern nation.
    I've yet to see a compelling vision for post-Brexit Britain.

    FTA with NZ doesn't really cut it for me.

    But we do have, things going well, an opportunity for an "Indepedence" narrative coming up.

    Would be great if we decided we wanted to be the science, education, and cultural superpower of the world. Let us focus on soft power, with a reserve of nuclear subs and carriers to keep the Russkies at bay.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    Scott_P said:
    Theresa's lune de miel will be a lune de hell soon.
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    The European Union should be prepared for returning jihadists if the so-called Islamic State (IS) is driven out of its Iraqi stronghold, Mosul, the EU's security commissioner warns.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37689210
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    ToryJim said:

    Government will 'very likely' hold a vote on the Brexit deal.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37691270

    I am not sure that is news. On QT last week, Damien Green said the same thing.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    RoyalBlue said:

    TSE has well and truly lost his marbles. How many people in the Republic of Ireland wish to rejoin the UK, or Mongolia China?

    It has happened before (of a sort). TSE, being learned in classical stuff, might even have been thinking of it, though I suspect it's a little after his usual period:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groans_of_the_Britons
    Thank you David.

    I see to have struck a nerve with leavers with this thread.

    I did post a trigger warning on the last thread for them.
    I am a leaver, who hasn't taken your bait; or indeed read your threader. In fact I seldom read anything you write these days. Such a shame; you used to produce intelligent, interesting and/or entertaining posts.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    Scott_P said:
    I think this suits May. Possibly. Find a way not to stand against him and the "story" disappears.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079

    The Scots chose to be taken over by the English (they didn't call it that, but that's what it was). The UK returning to the EU would only occur in substantially similar circumstances - ie we were completely broke.

    Britain will not be accepted back by the EU unless it is clear that Britain's wayward spirit is broken. That will only happen in the case of overwhelming catastrophe.

    Brexit means Brexit.

    What id there is no UK?

    Presumably an independent Scotland would be back in asap and Northern Ireland - once back with the Republic - would automatically join. In truth, the EU's UK problem is essentially an English one.
    Just as the UK's devolution problem is essentially an English one.

    The end of empire only went as far as the borders of the UK - not far enough for us to be fully reborn as a modern nation.
    I've yet to see a compelling vision for post-Brexit Britain.

    FTA with NZ doesn't really cut it for me.

    But we do have, things going well, an opportunity for an "Indepedence" narrative coming up.

    Would be great if we decided we wanted to be the science, education, and cultural superpower of the world. Let us focus on soft power, with a reserve of nuclear subs and carriers to keep the Russkies at bay.
    In practice that would just mean egregious photo-ops with Adele and Tim Peake.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857

    The Scots chose to be taken over by the English (they didn't call it that, but that's what it was). The UK returning to the EU would only occur in substantially similar circumstances - ie we were completely broke.

    Britain will not be accepted back by the EU unless it is clear that Britain's wayward spirit is broken. That will only happen in the case of overwhelming catastrophe.

    Brexit means Brexit.

    What id there is no UK?

    Presumably an independent Scotland would be back in asap and Northern Ireland - once back with the Republic - would automatically join. In truth, the EU's UK problem is essentially an English one.
    Just as the UK's devolution problem is essentially an English one.

    The end of empire only went as far as the borders of the UK - not far enough for us to be fully reborn as a modern nation.
    I've yet to see a compelling vision for post-Brexit Britain.

    FTA with NZ doesn't really cut it for me.

    But we do have, things going well, an opportunity for an "Indepedence" narrative coming up.

    Would be great if we decided we wanted to be the science, education, and cultural superpower of the world. Let us focus on soft power, with a reserve of nuclear subs and carriers to keep the Russkies at bay.
    In practice that would just mean egregious photo-ops with Adele and Tim Peake.
    We are already the world's second largest provider of university education, and I'd venture music, film and tv sales. Our cultural sector is by far the largest in Europe and possibly the largest globally as percentage of GDP.

    All high value add stuff, that is not easily robot-ised.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited October 2016
    I don't see this makes any sense. Had we voted to Remain we would have ended up forced "to sign up to things like the Euro, The EU Army, and the Schengen agreement, possibly all of them" with the referendum result taken as democratic backing for the Project.
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    Great piece TSE and just what I need to distract me from the Great Collapsing Hrung Disaster that is my mood today at work.

    Forget the referendum, we stand now at the real crossroads. I've said before - the Euro needs fiscal union which means the non-Euro countries would have been sat in the outer circle surrounding the EU anyway. So "leaving the EU" was inevitable as the EU turns into a confederal state.

    Our conundrum now is what we do next. Its clear that most of the hard Brexit people either don't know the consequences of "WTO agreement" or don't care. They seem obsessed with "control migration" which when we will end up with an open land border into an EU state via the Common Travel Area seems rather moot.

    So a trade deal is, despite all the posturing from both sides, what everyone wants even if that is after we are "liberated" from the evil clutches of the EU with its disgusting human rights, health and safety, environmental regulations, worker protections and all the other terrible things that the newspapers tell us we don't want.

    Even after a leave vote - and I am a leave voter - I don't think we will exit Europe. The EU is 20 years old but the trading area is 60, and only the hardest nutter thinks walking from that is a good idea. The question is what kind of an outer circle is now possible - personally I think the Euro, the army, the mandatory bankism and privatisation are bad things that we shouldn't join, whats more I don't think the people of Europe want those things either.

    Perhaps the best thing that can happen is for Deutsche Bank to finally collapse under its debts and take the Euro with it - a resurrection of the EC with Britain at the heart of it would be a result well worth all this trouble.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    From the Guardian today, I chuckled

    The vote-rigging in the Atlanta area appeared to be especially elaborate on Monday, with long lines of people outside polling stations for the first day of early in-person voting giving the impression of regular old participatory democracy in action:
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    For reasons I don't understand Vanilla wouldn't load comments or its site this morning, but (for no apparent reason) has just come back. Huzzah!
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857

    I don't see this makes any sense. Had we voted to Remain we would have ended up forced "to sign up to things like the Euro, The EU Army, and the Schengen agreement, possibly all of them" with the referendum result taken as democratic backing for the Project.

    Nope.

    The referendum would have seen the backing of the "deal" negotiated by Cameron.

    This idea that we were being ineluctably drawn into a nefarious pit of domination is nonsense.

    We were fence-sitting. Uncomfortably. But we'd been doing it successfully for many many years.
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    The Scots chose to be taken over by the English (they didn't call it that, but that's what it was). The UK returning to the EU would only occur in substantially similar circumstances - ie we were completely broke.

    Britain will not be accepted back by the EU unless it is clear that Britain's wayward spirit is broken. That will only happen in the case of overwhelming catastrophe.

    Brexit means Brexit.

    I'd rather choke upon my own blood upon the ground than go back, to paraphrase Churchill.
    @Casino_Royale

    Glad you enjoyed this morning's thread - actually wasn't my debut, that was actually more than two and a half years ago (I thought it was only 18 months ago):

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/10/sunils-by-election-analysis-which-partys-has-done-best-and-which-worst-in-current-parliament/
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    RoyalBlue said:

    TSE has well and truly lost his marbles. How many people in the Republic of Ireland wish to rejoin the UK, or Mongolia China?

    It has happened before (of a sort). TSE, being learned in classical stuff, might even have been thinking of it, though I suspect it's a little after his usual period:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groans_of_the_Britons
    Thank you David.

    I see to have struck a nerve with leavers with this thread.

    I did post a trigger warning on the last thread for them.
    Yebbut my thread was better :lol:
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    If you thought the betting markets were right and Clinton has a 90% chance of winning then the only value is to bet on Trump but because u are almost certain to lose your bet u would only put a small amount on. This might explain why there are losts of small bets for Trump.


    No one is going to bet the house on Trump but they will on climton.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    ToryJim said:

    Government will 'very likely' hold a vote on the Brexit deal.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37691270

    I am not sure that is news. On QT last week, Damien Green said the same thing.
    Well quite. Since this will be after A50 that vote will be nothing more than a talking shop since the choice will be between something which is somewhere between a little and a lot better than WTO, and a rock hard BrExit. Everyone will get to vent their spleen and the vote will be near unanimous, probably excepting the SNP who will occupy their usual roll of being awkward ;)
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,044

    I don't see this makes any sense. Had we voted to Remain we would have ended up forced "to sign up to things like the Euro, The EU Army, and the Schengen agreement, possibly all of them" with the referendum result taken as democratic backing for the Project.

    No. The referendum was clear on remain's side: it was for Cameron's renegotiation, which included none of the above.

    There might have been gradual creep towards them over the years (and that was my biggest fear about remain), but there was no mandate from a remain win for them, especially with such a close vote as we got.

    The problem we are faced with is that leave's meaning was unclear and inconsistent. As was pointed out at the time.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,930
    edited October 2016
    nunu said:


    If you thought the betting markets were right and Clinton has a 90% chance of winning then the only value is to bet on Trump

    How ?

    If Clinton has a 90% chance, why on earth would you back Trump at 11-2 ?!
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    I think this suits May. Possibly. Find a way not to stand against him and the "story" disappears.
    Not a big story however it pans out. Heathrow was always going to be an issue in SW London. But LHR3 has serous support from many Labour MPs, most Tory MPs, and all SNP MPs.

    Expansion will go to the Commons and pass easily.
    Yes. And frankly, Goldsmith's mayoral campaign was so astonishingly piss-poor I'd support the opposite of what he's saying, regardless of the technical merits.

    Another Eton retard.
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    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    nunu said:

    If you thought the betting markets were right and Clinton has a 90% chance of winning then the only value is to bet on Trump but because u are almost certain to lose your bet u would only put a small amount on. This might explain why there are losts of small bets for Trump.


    No one is going to bet the house on Trump but they will on climton.
    Its illegal to bet in most US states – so hard to see how these small bets indicate a groundswell of Trumpite support, as is being implied by the PB Trumptons.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,320
    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.

    Nonsense. We face exactly the same dilemma as Switzerland and Norway. Liberal, free trading nations, like us, right next to an enormous economic bloc struggling to become a superstate, which their voters do not want to be a part of.

    This is why we will end up with a solution similar to Switzerland and Norway. Some kind of looser free trading zone.

    Switzerland and Norway are richer than any country inside the EU, bar Luxembourg.
    and have all their laws faxed over to them from Brussels. Plus pay in. That is not Soft Brexit. That is Bitch Brexit.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,044
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.

    Nonsense. We face exactly the same dilemma as Switzerland and Norway. Liberal, free trading nations, like us, right next to an enormous economic bloc struggling to become a superstate, which their voters do not want to be a part of.

    This is why we will end up with a solution similar to Switzerland and Norway. Some kind of looser free trading zone.

    Switzerland and Norway are richer than any country inside the EU, bar Luxembourg.
    Who is the Norwegian Nicola Stugeon? The Swiss Gerry Adams?
    Oh give over. And grow a pair.

    Remainers are just so fucking feeble. Bunch of weepy girlies. It's not so much that you're wrong (though you mostly are) it's this whining, mewling, helpless handwringing bitching Oh nothing can go right, Woe to the world, Poor little me, Someone slap the horrible Leavers, Ewwwwww. On and on and on. BORING.

    Man up and deal with the world. It's changed.
    I didn't realise you were a remainer...
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016

    The problem we are faced with is that leave's meaning was unclear and inconsistent. As was pointed out at the time.

    The problem was Remain had no answer to immigration. That is what killed remain. There were many possible answers remain could have had on the subject, but Cameron's posturing on the subject over the preceding five years made them all politically untenable.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2016
    Jobabob said:


    Its illegal to bet in most US states

    No it isn't (Again). I know somebody in the US who has $100k on Clinton to win.

    If the bets have anything to do with Trump is a different matter.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2016
    So, day before the last debate and no Trump bombshell from the media or Dems.

    Sad.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Top trolling TSE - reads like you had a good luncheon.
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    Now now TSE. You are trolling a large number of people with this!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,261

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.

    Nonsense. We face exactly the same dilemma as Switzerland and Norway. Liberal, free trading nations, like us, right next to an enormous economic bloc struggling to become a superstate, which their voters do not want to be a part of.

    This is why we will end up with a solution similar to Switzerland and Norway. Some kind of looser free trading zone.

    Switzerland and Norway are richer than any country inside the EU, bar Luxembourg.
    Who is the Norwegian Nicola Stugeon? The Swiss Gerry Adams?
    Oh give over. And grow a pair.

    Remainers are just so fucking feeble. Bunch of weepy girlies. It's not so much that you're wrong (though you mostly are) it's this whining, mewling, helpless handwringing bitching Oh nothing can go right, Woe to the world, Poor little me, Someone slap the horrible Leavers, Ewwwwww. On and on and on. BORING.

    Man up and deal with the world. It's changed.
    I didn't realise you were a remainer...
    Did I dream it, or did SeanT himself indulge in a morning of post-Brexit vote handwringing when he started worrying about all his friends jobs?
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    Alistair said:

    So, day before the last debate and no Trump bombshell from the media or Dems.

    Sad.

    Saving it for the day of the debate?
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    Angus McNeil elected unopposed as Chair of International Trade committee
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    Exiting the EU committee chair candidates

    Benn

    Nominated by (own party)
    Edward Miliband, Paul Blomfield, Emma Reynolds, Ms Angela Eagle, Dan Jarvis, Thangham Debbonaire, Mr Kevan Jones, Seema Malhotra, Mr Pat McFadden, Liz Kendall, Helen Hayes, Andy Burnham, Gareth Thomas, Pat Glass, Jack Dromey

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Anna Soubry, Mark Durkan, Mr Andrew Mitchell, Dr Sarah Wollaston, John Nicolson


    Hoey

    Nominated by (own party)
    Mr Roger Godsiff, John Mann, Mr Dennis Skinner, Graham Stringer, Clive Lewis, Frank Field, Kelvin Hopkins, Ms Gisela Stuart, Paul Flynn, Mr Jim Cunningham, Mr Stephen Helpburn, Mr David Anderson, Mr Geoffrey Robinson, Ian Lavery, Mr Ronnie Campbell

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mrs Theresa Villiers, Mr Nigel Dodds, Mr Laurence Robertson, Alex Salmond, Charlie Elphicke

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    Culture Media and Sport committee candidates

    Collins

    Nominated by (own party)
    Nigel Adams, Nicky Morgan, Nadhim Zahawi, Jason McCartney, Rehma Chishti, Mr Edward Vaizey, Kelly Tolhurst, Neil Carmichael, Caroline Nokes, Nigel Huddleston, Andrew Bingham, Mr Keith Simpson, Sir Simon Burns, Pauline Latham, Nusrat Ghani

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Julie Elliott, Paul Farrelly, Meg Hillier, Christian Matheson, John Nicolson

    Grant

    Nominated by (own party)
    Mrs Maria Miller, Victoria Borwick, Sir Paul Beresford, Ben Howlett, Mr Shailesh Vara, Martin Vickers, Dr Poulter, Dame Caroline Spelman, Neil Parish, Mrs Flick Drummond, David T.C. Davies, Zac Goldsmith, Wendy Morton, Nick Boles, Dr Sarah Wollaston

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mr Chuka Umunna, Stephen Twigg, Fiona Mactaggart, Dan Jarvis, Hywel Williams

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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Jobabob said:

    nunu said:

    If you thought the betting markets were right and Clinton has a 90% chance of winning then the only value is to bet on Trump but because u are almost certain to lose your bet u would only put a small amount on. This might explain why there are losts of small bets for Trump.


    No one is going to bet the house on Trump but they will on climton.
    Its illegal to bet in most US states – so hard to see how these small bets indicate a groundswell of Trumpite support, as is being implied by the PB Trumptons.
    Really? That $100bn the federal government makes from betting taxes most years must be a pleasant surprise then.
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    Easiest way to troll TSE is to call him a TINO (Tory In Name Only!) :lol:

    * runs and hides *
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    Home Affair candidates

    Cooper

    Nominated by (own party)
    Margaret Beckett, Alan Johnson, Ms Harriet Harman, Keir Starmer, Mr Iain Wright, Mr David Lammy, Ms Gisela Stuart, Yasmin Qureshi, Fiona Mactaggart, Ruth Smeeth, Mr David Hanson, Thangham Debbonaire, Vernon Coaker, Shabana Mahmood, Kate Green

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mr Dominic Grieve, Mrs Maria Miller, Mr David Burrowes, Mr Charles Walker, Tim Farro

    Flint

    Nominated by (own party)
    Siobhain McDonagh, Mr George Howarth, Ms Angela Eagle, Mary Creagh, Liz Kendall, Meg Hillier, Lisa Nandy, Wes Streeting, Christian Matheson, Anna Turley, Dr Alan Whitehead, Luciana Berger, Karin Smyth, Graham Jones, Dan Jarvis

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mark Durkan, John Pugh, Charlie Elphicke, Mrs Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Roger Mullin

    Flynn

    Nominated by (own party)
    Mr Ronnie Campbell, Richard Burgon, Andy McDonald, Mr Dennis Skinner, Nick Smith, Cat Smith, Sir Alan Meale, Kelvin Hopkins, Rachael Maskell, Carolyn Harris, Kate Hoey, Margaret Greenwood, Ian Mearns, Mr Graham Allen, Clive Lewis

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Ronnie Cowan

    Umunna

    Nominated by (own party)
    Naz Shah, Stephen Twigg, Emma Reynolds, Mr Adrian Bailey, Mrs Louise Ellman, Rushanara Ali, Nic Dakin, Heidi Alexander, Kerry McCarthy, Mr Steve Reed, Mr Pat McFadden, Stephen Kinnock, Jim McMahon, Mr Ben Bradshaw, Jonathan Reynolds

    Nominated by (other parties)
    James Berry, Nusrat Ghani, Mr Ranil Jayawardena, Mrs Helen Grant, Mr Nick Clegg


  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,261
    Jobabob said:

    nunu said:

    If you thought the betting markets were right and Clinton has a 90% chance of winning then the only value is to bet on Trump but because u are almost certain to lose your bet u would only put a small amount on. This might explain why there are losts of small bets for Trump.


    No one is going to bet the house on Trump but they will on climton.
    Its illegal to bet in most US states – so hard to see how these small bets indicate a groundswell of Trumpite support, as is being implied by the PB Trumptons.
    Trump is not Brexit. He has lost. The question now is how badly and whether he will ever formally concede.
  • Options
    Science and Technology:

    Borwick

    Nominated by (own party)
    Kelly Tolhurst, Kit Malthouse, Dame Caroline Spelman, Mrs Cheryl Gillan, Mims Davies, Boris Johnson, Mr Iain Duncan Smith, Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg, Mr Jonathan Djanogly, Dr Tania Mathias, Greg Hands, Mr Sam Gyimah, Tom Tugendhat, Richard Harrington, Zac Goldsmith

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Gavin Robinson, Mr Nigel Dodds, Stephen Pound, Stella Creasy, Ms Karen Buck

    Metcalfe

    Nominated by (own party)
    Karen Lumley, Stuart Andrew, Andrew Stephenson, Victoria Prentis, Sir Eric Pickles, Wendy Morton, Mark Menzies, Jeremy Lefroy, Jo Churchill, Ben Howlett, Rebecca Harris, Andrew Bridgen, Gareth Johnson, Mr Andrew Turner, Mr Laurence Robertson

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Graham Stringer, George Kerevan, Danny Kinahan, Graham Jones, Mr Jim Cunningham

    Poulter

    Nominated by (own party)
    Mrs Helen Grant, Glyn Davies, Julian Sturdy, James Heappey, Caroline Ansell, James Cartlidge, David Tredinnick, Nick Herbert, John Stevenson, Peter Aldous, David T.C. Davies, Crispin Blunt, Mr Philip Hollobone, Sir Paul Beresford, Tim Loughton

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mr Stephen Hepburn, Mr Jamie Reed, Angus Brendan MacNeil, Matthew Pennycook, Mr Alistair Carmichael

    Thomas

    Nominated by (own party)
    Mr Gary Streeter, Stephen Hammond, David Mackintosh, Mr Mark Prisk, Justin Tomlinson, Mr David Nuttall, Mr David Burrowes, Mrs Theresa Villiers, Craig Williams, Byron Davies, Maggie Throup, Steve Double, Scott Mann, Michael Tomlinson, Mr Steve Bake

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mark Durkan, Dr Philippa Whitford, Robert Flello

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,320
    Indigo said:

    The problem we are faced with is that leave's meaning was unclear and inconsistent. As was pointed out at the time.

    The problem was Remain had no answer to immigration. That is what killed remain. There were many possible answers remain could have had on the subject, but Cameron's posturing on the subject over the preceding five years made them all politically untenable.
    Absofuckinglutely.

    Remain never had an answer to immigration (famously epitomised for me when Nick Herbert was on DP trying to respond to Kate Hoey). Add to that Lab's "unlimited immigration" aspiration and Leave was obvious. Well, it was obvious to @SouthamObserver miles and miles out. I twigged a couple of weeks prior to the vote.

    So now what? Several PB Leavers have mooted some kind of restricted free movement option (skilled/etc) but perhaps we should take heed of Dave's deal. Immigration he got a benefits qualification period, not much really. Now we're actually heading out, why should the EU27 actually improve on that deal to deliver the PBL's "Soft Brexit"? Answer: they shouldn't and probably won't. And hence Hard Brexit here we come.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.

    Nonsense. We face exactly the same dilemma as Switzerland and Norway. Liberal, free trading nations, like us, right next to an enormous economic bloc struggling to become a superstate, which their voters do not want to be a part of.

    This is why we will end up with a solution similar to Switzerland and Norway. Some kind of looser free trading zone.

    Switzerland and Norway are richer than any country inside the EU, bar Luxembourg.
    and have all their laws faxed over to them from Brussels. Plus pay in. That is not Soft Brexit. That is Bitch Brexit.
    If we want to trade with a powerful block like the EU (or state like Japan) we have to obey some of the technical rules and laws that apply there. Doing so from the outside would always mean having to obey various laws - to ignore them and (for example) develop more polluting cars means not selling them in the EU
  • Options

    Exiting the EU committee chair candidates

    Benn

    Nominated by (own party)
    Edward Miliband, Paul Blomfield, Emma Reynolds, Ms Angela Eagle, Dan Jarvis, Thangham Debbonaire, Mr Kevan Jones, Seema Malhotra, Mr Pat McFadden, Liz Kendall, Helen Hayes, Andy Burnham, Gareth Thomas, Pat Glass, Jack Dromey

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Anna Soubry, Mark Durkan, Mr Andrew Mitchell, Dr Sarah Wollaston, John Nicolson


    Hoey

    Nominated by (own party)
    Mr Roger Godsiff, John Mann, Mr Dennis Skinner, Graham Stringer, Clive Lewis, Frank Field, Kelvin Hopkins, Ms Gisela Stuart, Paul Flynn, Mr Jim Cunningham, Mr Stephen Helpburn, Mr David Anderson, Mr Geoffrey Robinson, Ian Lavery, Mr Ronnie Campbell

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mrs Theresa Villiers, Mr Nigel Dodds, Mr Laurence Robertson, Alex Salmond, Charlie Elphicke

    The anti-EU Hoey is clearly the Corbyn candidate here. Salmond presumably nominating her because he is after as hard a Brexit as possible. Interesting that John Nicholson has nominated Benn. The SNP may not be an entirely happy ship on this one.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,261
    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TSE has well and truly lost his marbles. How many people in the Republic of Ireland wish to rejoin the UK, or Mongolia China?

    It has happened before (of a sort). TSE, being learned in classical stuff, might even have been thinking of it, though I suspect it's a little after his usual period:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groans_of_the_Britons
    Thank you David.

    I see to have struck a nerve with leavers with this thread.

    I did post a trigger warning on the last thread for them.
    I am a leaver, who hasn't taken your bait; or indeed read your threader. In fact I seldom read anything you write these days. Such a shame; you used to produce intelligent, interesting and/or entertaining posts.
    This was not one of TSE's best. If you're gonna do a good clickbaity counterfactual, it has to be something that could happen quite soon. This is like trying to scare people with the possibility that an asteroid could hit a future city built on the sea.

    Harsh. The main problem with the counterfactual imho is not that we might try and rejoin in say, a decade or two's time, but that the Euro will have imploded by then. So we wont be expected to join that.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,320

    Science and Technology:

    Borwick

    Nominated by (own party)
    Kelly Tolhurst, Kit Malthouse, Dame Caroline Spelman, Mrs Cheryl Gillan, Mims Davies, Boris Johnson, Mr Iain Duncan Smith, Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg, Mr Jonathan Djanogly, Dr Tania Mathias, Greg Hands, Mr Sam Gyimah, Tom Tugendhat, Richard Harrington, Zac Goldsmith

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Gavin Robinson, Mr Nigel Dodds, Stephen Pound, Stella Creasy, Ms Karen Buck

    Metcalfe

    Nominated by (own party)
    Karen Lumley, Stuart Andrew, Andrew Stephenson, Victoria Prentis, Sir Eric Pickles, Wendy Morton, Mark Menzies, Jeremy Lefroy, Jo Churchill, Ben Howlett, Rebecca Harris, Andrew Bridgen, Gareth Johnson, Mr Andrew Turner, Mr Laurence Robertson

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Graham Stringer, George Kerevan, Danny Kinahan, Graham Jones, Mr Jim Cunningham

    Poulter

    Nominated by (own party)
    Mrs Helen Grant, Glyn Davies, Julian Sturdy, James Heappey, Caroline Ansell, James Cartlidge, David Tredinnick, Nick Herbert, John Stevenson, Peter Aldous, David T.C. Davies, Crispin Blunt, Mr Philip Hollobone, Sir Paul Beresford, Tim Loughton

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mr Stephen Hepburn, Mr Jamie Reed, Angus Brendan MacNeil, Matthew Pennycook, Mr Alistair Carmichael

    Thomas

    Nominated by (own party)
    Mr Gary Streeter, Stephen Hammond, David Mackintosh, Mr Mark Prisk, Justin Tomlinson, Mr David Nuttall, Mr David Burrowes, Mrs Theresa Villiers, Craig Williams, Byron Davies, Maggie Throup, Steve Double, Scott Mann, Michael Tomlinson, Mr Steve Bake

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mark Durkan, Dr Philippa Whitford, Robert Flello

    Thanks for these. Apols but could you explain a bit. Are all those people nominated for that committee? What is the meaning of the "Thomas", "Borwick", etc?

    When will we know who is on them?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    So, day before the last debate and no Trump bombshell from the media or Dems.

    Sad.

    Saving it for the day of the debate?
    I feel Trump goes peek Trump after having had a night of it keeping him up tweeting at 3 in the morning.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,044
    Indigo said:

    The problem we are faced with is that leave's meaning was unclear and inconsistent. As was pointed out at the time.

    The problem was Remain had no answer to immigration. That is what killed remain. There were many possible answers remain could have had on the subject, but Cameron's posturing on the subject over the preceding five years made them all politically untenable.
    I think that's right.

    But it also shows that immigration is key, and whatever deal is done, we must have much stronger immigration controls.

    I don't particularly like that, but it's wat won it.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,320

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.

    Nonsense. We face exactly the same dilemma as Switzerland and Norway. Liberal, free trading nations, like us, right next to an enormous economic bloc struggling to become a superstate, which their voters do not want to be a part of.

    This is why we will end up with a solution similar to Switzerland and Norway. Some kind of looser free trading zone.

    Switzerland and Norway are richer than any country inside the EU, bar Luxembourg.
    and have all their laws faxed over to them from Brussels. Plus pay in. That is not Soft Brexit. That is Bitch Brexit.
    If we want to trade with a powerful block like the EU (or state like Japan) we have to obey some of the technical rules and laws that apply there. Doing so from the outside would always mean having to obey various laws - to ignore them and (for example) develop more polluting cars means not selling them in the EU
    Yes. And I refuse to give up the sovereign right to make cars as polluting as I choose.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,261

    Home Affair candidates

    Cooper

    Nominated by (own party)
    Margaret Beckett, Alan Johnson, Ms Harriet Harman, Keir Starmer, Mr Iain Wright, Mr David Lammy, Ms Gisela Stuart, Yasmin Qureshi, Fiona Mactaggart, Ruth Smeeth, Mr David Hanson, Thangham Debbonaire, Vernon Coaker, Shabana Mahmood, Kate Green

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mr Dominic Grieve, Mrs Maria Miller, Mr David Burrowes, Mr Charles Walker, Tim Farro

    Flint

    Nominated by (own party)
    Siobhain McDonagh, Mr George Howarth, Ms Angela Eagle, Mary Creagh, Liz Kendall, Meg Hillier, Lisa Nandy, Wes Streeting, Christian Matheson, Anna Turley, Dr Alan Whitehead, Luciana Berger, Karin Smyth, Graham Jones, Dan Jarvis

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mark Durkan, John Pugh, Charlie Elphicke, Mrs Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Roger Mullin

    Flynn

    Nominated by (own party)
    Mr Ronnie Campbell, Richard Burgon, Andy McDonald, Mr Dennis Skinner, Nick Smith, Cat Smith, Sir Alan Meale, Kelvin Hopkins, Rachael Maskell, Carolyn Harris, Kate Hoey, Margaret Greenwood, Ian Mearns, Mr Graham Allen, Clive Lewis

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Ronnie Cowan

    Umunna

    Nominated by (own party)
    Naz Shah, Stephen Twigg, Emma Reynolds, Mr Adrian Bailey, Mrs Louise Ellman, Rushanara Ali, Nic Dakin, Heidi Alexander, Kerry McCarthy, Mr Steve Reed, Mr Pat McFadden, Stephen Kinnock, Jim McMahon, Mr Ben Bradshaw, Jonathan Reynolds

    Nominated by (other parties)
    James Berry, Nusrat Ghani, Mr Ranil Jayawardena, Mrs Helen Grant, Mr Nick Clegg


    Wow. There is a fight for this one!
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Easiest way to troll TSE is to call him a TINO (Tory In Name Only!) :lol:

    * runs and hides *

    He's now so wet he should change his byline to The Screaming Haddocks.

  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721

    Scott_P said:
    I think this suits May. Possibly. Find a way not to stand against him and the "story" disappears.
    But the majority slips a bit.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Alistair said:

    So, day before the last debate and no Trump bombshell from the media or Dems.

    Sad.

    He'll probably bomb himself going by his efforts so far this month.
  • Options

    Scott_P said:
    I think this suits May. Possibly. Find a way not to stand against him and the "story" disappears.
    But the majority slips a bit.
    Nominally.
  • Options

    Alistair said:

    So, day before the last debate and no Trump bombshell from the media or Dems.

    Sad.

    He'll probably bomb himself going by his efforts so far this month.
    I really want them to have Jerry Springer moderate. I mean that is about the level of the debates so far anyway.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Indigo said:

    The problem we are faced with is that leave's meaning was unclear and inconsistent. As was pointed out at the time.

    The problem was Remain had no answer to immigration. That is what killed remain. There were many possible answers remain could have had on the subject, but Cameron's posturing on the subject over the preceding five years made them all politically untenable.
    I think that's right.

    But it also shows that immigration is key, and whatever deal is done, we must have much stronger immigration controls.

    I don't particularly like that, but it's wat won it.
    You could just as easily infer that a majority of the country are pro-immigration.

    Remain + globalising Hannanite Leavers = comfortable majority
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,320
    TOPPING said:

    Science and Technology:

    Borwick

    Nominated by (own party)
    Kelly Tolhurst, Kit Malthouse, Dame Caroline Spelman, Mrs Cheryl Gillan, Mims Davies, Boris Johnson, Mr Iain Duncan Smith, Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg, Mr Jonathan Djanogly, Dr Tania Mathias, Greg Hands, Mr Sam Gyimah, Tom Tugendhat, Richard Harrington, Zac Goldsmith

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Gavin Robinson, Mr Nigel Dodds, Stephen Pound, Stella Creasy, Ms Karen Buck

    Metcalfe

    Nominated by (own party)
    Karen Lumley, Stuart Andrew, Andrew Stephenson, Victoria Prentis, Sir Eric Pickles, Wendy Morton, Mark Menzies, Jeremy Lefroy, Jo Churchill, Ben Howlett, Rebecca Harris, Andrew Bridgen, Gareth Johnson, Mr Andrew Turner, Mr Laurence Robertson

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Graham Stringer, George Kerevan, Danny Kinahan, Graham Jones, Mr Jim Cunningham

    Poulter

    Nominated by (own party)
    Mrs Helen Grant, Glyn Davies, Julian Sturdy, James Heappey, Caroline Ansell, James Cartlidge, David Tredinnick, Nick Herbert, John Stevenson, Peter Aldous, David T.C. Davies, Crispin Blunt, Mr Philip Hollobone, Sir Paul Beresford, Tim Loughton

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mr Stephen Hepburn, Mr Jamie Reed, Angus Brendan MacNeil, Matthew Pennycook, Mr Alistair Carmichael

    Thomas

    Nominated by (own party)
    Mr Gary Streeter, Stephen Hammond, David Mackintosh, Mr Mark Prisk, Justin Tomlinson, Mr David Nuttall, Mr David Burrowes, Mrs Theresa Villiers, Craig Williams, Byron Davies, Maggie Throup, Steve Double, Scott Mann, Michael Tomlinson, Mr Steve Bake

    Nominated by (other parties)
    Mark Durkan, Dr Philippa Whitford, Robert Flello

    Thanks for these. Apols but could you explain a bit. Are all those people nominated for that committee? What is the meaning of the "Thomas", "Borwick", etc?

    When will we know who is on them?
    sozza - got it now. Thanks!
  • Options
    There's more chance of Japan willingly becoming a province of China, or the 10 provinces in Canada become the 51st to 60th US States than there is of the UK rejoining the EU
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    One wonders how Japan manages to sell cars in the EU without getting laws faxed through to them and without courts telling them who they can and can't deport.

    Its startling that the Japs can do this I tells you.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Better betting down ticket:

    Eric Dondero R. ‏@DonderolibtR
    @NumbersMuncher and we Trump supporters should show up to the polls to vote down-ballot GOP why exactly?
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    11h
    Eric Dondero R. ‏@DonderolibtR
    @gypsyluc @NumbersMuncher No, I don't care about the country. Not if Trump's not the president. I want civil war if Trump not elected.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    So, day before the last debate and no Trump bombshell from the media or Dems.

    Sad.

    He'll probably bomb himself going by his efforts so far this month.
    I'm trying to work out if his (((global banking elites))) or election fraud is the one that is going to fully explode.

    Is he just going to flat come out and say "Jews" or is he going to ask his supporters to boycott the election?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This is painful from Howard Dean - it's worthy of Diane or Owen.

    Nubian Awakening
    Hillary needs to find better surrogates: Howard Dean tries to correct the record on MSNBC but comes off looking foolish #NeverHillary https://t.co/kwaFxSg7U1
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,320
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.

    Nonsense. We face exactly the same dilemma as Switzerland and Norway. Liberal, free trading nations, like us, right next to an enormous economic bloc struggling to become a superstate, which their voters do not want to be a part of.

    This is why we will end up with a solution similar to Switzerland and Norway. Some kind of looser free trading zone.

    Switzerland and Norway are richer than any country inside the EU, bar Luxembourg.
    and have all their laws faxed over to them from Brussels. Plus pay in. That is not Soft Brexit. That is Bitch Brexit.
    Which, to address this and your other point about immigration, is why we could get this deal from the EU. Many Europeans really do not understand our obsession with parliament, sovereignty and democracy. They don't understand how important it is to us.

    So when we come asking for Bitch Brexit they will laugh and say OK, you're still gonna give us money, have less influence on single market rules and regs, and we just have to qualify free movement to free movement with a job? Is that it? And all so you can avoid the rest of the acquis and have "sovereignty" returned? And your fishes and cows?

    Here, they will say, Have it, this is worse than what you had before.

    And from their perspective, it will be. But from our perspective, it will be better: we can begin to pivot away from the EU slowly, we can make trade agreements elsewhere, we can avoid most of the worst of the ECJ, which will have way less power over us.

    We will be much closer to a free and sovereign country than we were before.

    This deal is do-able. Because the Brits and the Europeans see things differently.
    Trouble is, at every turn there is a red line crossed. Payment in (easy headline); ECJ on single market matters, you name it. Will be tricky to achieve. The europeans may not understand the British Public...but we do.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AlbertoNardelli: US Chamber of Commerce pretty much making the case for the softest of Brexits. That said, US firms in UK are worth $590bn, employ 1.2m
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,320
    Jobabob said:

    Indigo said:

    The problem we are faced with is that leave's meaning was unclear and inconsistent. As was pointed out at the time.

    The problem was Remain had no answer to immigration. That is what killed remain. There were many possible answers remain could have had on the subject, but Cameron's posturing on the subject over the preceding five years made them all politically untenable.
    I think that's right.

    But it also shows that immigration is key, and whatever deal is done, we must have much stronger immigration controls.

    I don't particularly like that, but it's wat won it.
    You could just as easily infer that a majority of the country are pro-immigration.

    Remain + globalising Hannanite Leavers = comfortable majority
    + most critical constituency of all - PB Leavers!!
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Scott_P said:

    @AlbertoNardelli: US Chamber of Commerce pretty much making the case for the softest of Brexits. That said, US firms in UK are worth $590bn, employ 1.2m

    A Clinton victory will increase the pressure to make Brexit softer than a post coital Johnson
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    @AlbertoNardelli: US Chamber of Commerce pretty much making the case for the softest of Brexits. That said, US firms in UK are worth $590bn, employ 1.2m

    That said if the US had its way we'd be staying in the EU so it would be moot. So not sure what your point is, this is about what we want not what they want.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.

    Nonsense. We face exactly the same dilemma as Switzerland and Norway. Liberal, free trading nations, like us, right next to an enormous economic bloc struggling to become a superstate, which their voters do not want to be a part of.

    This is why we will end up with a solution similar to Switzerland and Norway. Some kind of looser free trading zone.

    Switzerland and Norway are richer than any country inside the EU, bar Luxembourg.
    and have all their laws faxed over to them from Brussels. Plus pay in. That is not Soft Brexit. That is Bitch Brexit.
    Which, to address this and your other point about immigration, is why we could get this deal from the EU. Many Europeans really do not understand our obsession with parliament, sovereignty and democracy. They don't understand how important it is to us.

    So when we come asking for Bitch Brexit they will laugh and say OK, you're still gonna give us money, have less influence on single market rules and regs, and we just have to qualify free movement to free movement with a job? Is that it? And all so you can avoid the rest of the acquis and have "sovereignty" returned? And your fishes and cows?

    Here, they will say, Have it, this is worse than what you had before.

    And from their perspective, it will be. But from our perspective, it will be better: we can begin to pivot away from the EU slowly, we can make trade agreements elsewhere, we can avoid most of the worst of the ECJ, which will have way less power over us.

    We will be much closer to a free and sovereign country than we were before.

    This deal is do-able. Because the Brits and the Europeans see things differently.
    There is another thing.

    If we successfully Brexit, the old conflation that Europe = EU is broken. Gradually, we move into a world of Europes plural, in which a people can democratically decide how tight they want to couple with the German monetary beast.

    I am not one predicting Nexit or Italexit or Frexit. The EU will stagger on. But longer term - a generation perhaps - our example could see a real loosening around the edges and a final nail in the coffin of the 1950s era "ever closer union".

    We do need statesmen of imagination though. Not sure we've got that.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,320
    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    @AlbertoNardelli: US Chamber of Commerce pretty much making the case for the softest of Brexits. That said, US firms in UK are worth $590bn, employ 1.2m

    A Clinton victory will increase the pressure to make Brexit softer than a post coital Johnson
    Would be not without irony.

    Brexiters up in arms at "back of queue" comment from US, subsequently go on to accept US-inspired sovereignty-munching terms of a "Soft Brexit".
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    There's no realistic prospect of the UK rejoining the EU. In fact the disappearance of the UK in its current form is more likely.

    The issue is that we can't be part of it but we can't do without it either. We have a very frustrating several decades ahead of us. The referendum was a vote for a vacuum.

    Nonsense. We face exactly the same dilemma as Switzerland and Norway. Liberal, free trading nations, like us, right next to an enormous economic bloc struggling to become a superstate, which their voters do not want to be a part of.

    This is why we will end up with a solution similar to Switzerland and Norway. Some kind of looser free trading zone.

    Switzerland and Norway are richer than any country inside the EU, bar Luxembourg.
    Who is the Norwegian Nicola Stugeon? The Swiss Gerry Adams?
    Oh give over. And grow a pair.

    Remainers are just so fucking feeble. Bunch of weepy girlies. It's not so much that you're wrong (though you mostly are) it's this whining, mewling, helpless handwringing bitching Oh nothing can go right, Woe to the world, Poor little me, Someone slap the horrible Leavers, Ewwwwww. On and on and on. BORING.

    Man up and deal with the world. It's changed.
    I didn't realise you were a remainer...
    Did I dream it, or did SeanT himself indulge in a morning of post-Brexit vote handwringing when he started worrying about all his friends jobs?
    I did. Because I'm nice and worry about my friends. I got over it in about a week.

    I'm not still pissing my pants three months later.
    It was all a big ruse to trick north London hostesses into allowing him back on the dinner party circuit. Token right wingers, good. Hard Brexiteers, off the guest list.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TOPPING said:

    Jobabob said:

    Indigo said:

    The problem we are faced with is that leave's meaning was unclear and inconsistent. As was pointed out at the time.

    The problem was Remain had no answer to immigration. That is what killed remain. There were many possible answers remain could have had on the subject, but Cameron's posturing on the subject over the preceding five years made them all politically untenable.
    I think that's right.

    But it also shows that immigration is key, and whatever deal is done, we must have much stronger immigration controls.

    I don't particularly like that, but it's wat won it.
    You could just as easily infer that a majority of the country are pro-immigration.

    Remain + globalising Hannanite Leavers = comfortable majority
    + most critical constituency of all - PB Leavers!!
    How could I forget!?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,044
    Jobabob said:

    Indigo said:

    The problem we are faced with is that leave's meaning was unclear and inconsistent. As was pointed out at the time.

    The problem was Remain had no answer to immigration. That is what killed remain. There were many possible answers remain could have had on the subject, but Cameron's posturing on the subject over the preceding five years made them all politically untenable.
    I think that's right.

    But it also shows that immigration is key, and whatever deal is done, we must have much stronger immigration controls.

    I don't particularly like that, but it's wat won it.
    You could just as easily infer that a majority of the country are pro-immigration.

    Remain + globalising Hannanite Leavers = comfortable majority
    Yes, but the Hannanite Leavers made a deal with the Hard Brexit devil. They thought they could use the hardliners to get what they wanted.

    Unfortunately for them, the hardliners are as noisy as ever, and have some senior positions of authority. Squeaky bum time for the Hannanites.
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    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    There will be neither a hard or soft Brexit, there simply will not be Brexit. It is too hard in economic terms to reject. Even the obsessive, blind one track mind Daily Express will see it in the end.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,988
    Mr. Topping, point of order: I was one of those irked by Obama's cretinous comment. I also haven't signed up anyone as spokesman on my behalf regarding whether I want a firm and fruity departure or a wet lettuce departure.

    People do have very variant views, we're not dealing with two monolithic perspectives.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016
    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    One wonders how Japan manages to sell cars in the EU without getting laws faxed through to them and without courts telling them who they can and can't deport.

    Its startling that the Japs can do this I tells you.

    They do it by building them in the UK, which is inside the EU, so they can export to Sicily from Sunderland without hassle.

    I'm a Leave voter, but I understand this. It's why Soft Brexit will, I predict, turn out to be the only option. Economics will prevail.

    And now I really MUST WORK. Eeek.
    No, really, they dont. Honda build the Civic and CR-V in Swindon, just about every other model is built outside the EU but to EU standards if they are intending to sell it in that market.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Honda_facilities
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,320

    Jobabob said:

    Indigo said:

    The problem we are faced with is that leave's meaning was unclear and inconsistent. As was pointed out at the time.

    The problem was Remain had no answer to immigration. That is what killed remain. There were many possible answers remain could have had on the subject, but Cameron's posturing on the subject over the preceding five years made them all politically untenable.
    I think that's right.

    But it also shows that immigration is key, and whatever deal is done, we must have much stronger immigration controls.

    I don't particularly like that, but it's wat won it.
    You could just as easily infer that a majority of the country are pro-immigration.

    Remain + globalising Hannanite Leavers = comfortable majority
    Yes, but the Hannanite Leavers made a deal with the Hard Brexit devil. They thought they could use the hardliners to get what they wanted.

    Unfortunately for them, the hardliners are as noisy as ever, and have some senior positions of authority. Squeaky bum time for the Hannanites.
    Hardliners prove to be hardliners shocker.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,044
    Off-topic:

    My new PC arrived and I *just* managed to get it installed before the little 'uns nap finished.

    My God, it's fast. And a 4K screen has amazing resolution.

    Graphics cards have come on a long way in the last few years.

    Thanks to everyone who helped me make my choice. More than £2K down (including monitor), but much fun still to come!
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    Off-topic:

    My new PC arrived and I *just* managed to get it installed before the little 'uns nap finished.

    My God, it's fast. And a 4K screen has amazing resolution.

    Graphics cards have come on a long way in the last few years.

    Thanks to everyone who helped me make my choice. More than £2K down (including monitor), but much fun still to come!

    What monitor did you get?
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Jobabob said:

    Indigo said:

    The problem we are faced with is that leave's meaning was unclear and inconsistent. As was pointed out at the time.

    The problem was Remain had no answer to immigration. That is what killed remain. There were many possible answers remain could have had on the subject, but Cameron's posturing on the subject over the preceding five years made them all politically untenable.
    I think that's right.

    But it also shows that immigration is key, and whatever deal is done, we must have much stronger immigration controls.

    I don't particularly like that, but it's wat won it.
    You could just as easily infer that a majority of the country are pro-immigration.

    Remain + globalising Hannanite Leavers = comfortable majority
    Except its b*llocks

    http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-31/immigration/introduction.aspx

    In 2013, 77 per cent of people want immigration reduced “a little” or “a lot”, with 56 per cent wanting a large reduction. Both figures are up sharply on 1995
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    TGOHF said:

    Easiest way to troll TSE is to call him a TINO (Tory In Name Only!) :lol:

    * runs and hides *

    He's now so wet he should change his byline to The Screaming Haddocks.

    Has he joined the Tory Reform Group yet? That is a stepping stone to the Lib Dems.
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