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I'd say that public opinion was always in favour of soft Brexit. Certainly now it looks like we'll definitely leave, you'd expect all of the 48% to be in favour of soft Brexit and probably a good third of the 52% to have always favoured soft Brexit .SeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Heathrow almost certain..
https://www.ft.com/content/d389df74-9486-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582
Hammond and May are fighting the Hard Brexiteers?
https://www.ft.com/content/2633a1dc-9465-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Janan Ganesh thinks voters will change their minds on Brexit, when inflation kicks in
https://www.ft.com/content/15dadb7e-944d-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
In fact, I'd have expected a significant proportion of the 48% to have favoured soft Brexit anyway - but they voted Remain because they feared hard Brexit and preferred Remain to Hard Brexit.
Personally, I'm .a soft Brexiter - but I take the view that you have to be prepared to accept hard Brexit because otherwise there will be no alternative to no Brexit at all. And in my view hard Brexit is better than hard Remain.0 -
Agreed. If the Liberals had an eye catching leader they could challenge well for centrist and centre left votes, particularly in areas where Labour are nowhere. Then the Tories would again be under threat from a Lib Lab pact.SeanT said:
Still, it would take an earthquake to dislodge Labour from its 100 safest seats. That earthquake might have been UKIP. Not any more. Labour aren't going to die out any time soon.Philip_Thompson said:
At that level of swing calculators aren't worth anything.SeanT said:That said, and playing with electoral calculus, it is amazing how low Labour's support has to go before they are overtaken.
Even if you input a result of
45 Tories
20 Lib Dems
10 Labour
10 UKIP
5 Greens
Labour are STILL the second largest party!
FPTP will keep Labour alive for a long long time, even if it condemns them to semi-permanent opposition. Piquant.
Remember they only died in Scotland coz there was a vivid alternative, the SNP. Lacking that, Labour in England will endure, and surely revive one day0 -
CongratulationsTissue_Price said:
We debated sparing her the slightly more unusual form of her middle name on the basis that she already had enough on her plate...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Congratulations, welcome to a life of spelling your first name out MaiaTissue_Price said:In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
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This is utter tosh. Maybe this made some sort of sense when most towns mostly looked after themselves, but sent some sort of representative to lobby a faraway king once or twice a year. But it is no model for a modern so-called democracy.Philip_Thompson said:
It's not undeniably unreasonable. We all elect the most popular local representatives, if the most popular representative in a local area is concentrated in one party then that is the choice of those voters.IanB2 said:
Of course. But who is to say whether those same votes fall in a more, or less, favourable way? That is just speculation. The point is that the calculator's result is theoretically possible, but undeniably unreasonable.Philip_Thompson said:
Except you're delusional if you believe that you can cut a parties share by two-thirds and "the votes fall exactly as modelled in the calculator". It has simply never happened.IanB2 said:
You miss my point. The seat model within the calculator tells you how many seats each party wins, and also tells you how many votes they get in total (which is, of course, the total that you input in the first place). If the votes fall exactly as modelled in the calculator, then the result is the one you will get. You can argue until the cows come home that in practice the same votes might be distributed differently, but you cannot argue that if the calculator has the vote distribution correct, the result is as it says.Philip_Thompson said:
No they would not. Try entering 2015 election results into 2010-2015 seat projectors. They fail.IanB2 said:
Except that if the votes fall as you input, the results will be as predicted. They illustrate how ridiculous is our voting system, hugely biased towards parties that can concentrate their support (the very opposite of what any sensible democracy should want).Philip_Thompson said:
At that level of swing calculators aren't worth anything.SeanT said:That said, and playing with electoral calculus, it is amazing how low Labour's support has to go before they are overtaken.
Even if you input a result of
45 Tories
20 Lib Dems
10 Labour
10 UKIP
5 Greens
Labour are STILL the second largest party!
FPTP will keep Labour alive for a long long time, even if it condemns them to semi-permanent opposition. Piquant.
"If the model is correct the result is correct" is a truism not an argument.0 -
Congratulations Price family.0
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Both the LibDems and Labour need a new set of MPs first. Neither currently has a anyone who fits the bill as an "eye catching leader".Jobabob said:
Agreed. If the Liberals had an eye catching leader they could challenge well for centrist and centre left votes, particularly in areas where Labour are nowhere. Then the Tories would again be under threat from a Lib Lab pact.SeanT said:
Still, it would take an earthquake to dislodge Labour from its 100 safest seats. That earthquake might have been UKIP. Not any more. Labour aren't going to die out any time soon.Philip_Thompson said:
At that level of swing calculators aren't worth anything.SeanT said:That said, and playing with electoral calculus, it is amazing how low Labour's support has to go before they are overtaken.
Even if you input a result of
45 Tories
20 Lib Dems
10 Labour
10 UKIP
5 Greens
Labour are STILL the second largest party!
FPTP will keep Labour alive for a long long time, even if it condemns them to semi-permanent opposition. Piquant.
Remember they only died in Scotland coz there was a vivid alternative, the SNP. Lacking that, Labour in England will endure, and surely revive one day0 -
Congratulations. Lovely name.Tissue_Price said:In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
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Yes.SeanT said:
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.Cookie said:
I'd say that public opinion was always in favour of soft Brexit. Certainly now it looks like we'll definitely leave, you'd expect all of the 48% to be in favour of soft Brexit and probably a good third of the 52% to have always favoured soft Brexit .SeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
In fact, I'd have expected a significant proportion of the 48% to have favoured soft Brexit anyway - but they voted Remain because they feared hard Brexit and preferred Remain to Hard Brexit.
Personally, I'm .a soft Brexiter - but I take the view that you have to be prepared to accept hard Brexit because otherwise there will be no alternative to no Brexit at all. And in my view hard Brexit is better than hard Remain.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did.
But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.0 -
With FPTP Labour is the only game in town if you are on the centre left. Corbyn is no obstacle compared to the difficulties of starting from scratch under our current electoral system.AnneJGP said:
Seems fairly credible to me that the realignment might come along the Remain/Leave divide.IanB2 said:
The test is when PB'ers like our Southam recognise that Labour's vision (such as it is) and culture are no longer appropriate to the more individualistic world of the 21st century. Then, there is the prospect of some realignment. So long as they cling to the idea that Corbyn and his hundreds of thousands of lefties might one day disappear in a puff of smoke, as currently appears to be their view, we are stuck with the current impasse as far as progressive politics is concerned.Sandpit said:
With Labour seemingly in self destruct mode, a realignment to the Tories and Whigs as the two main parties is quite possible.williamglenn said:
Orange Bookers, Cameroons and Blairites are the only other viable 'big tent' party of government. They need to get on with the realignment.SeanT said:
The demise of UKIP means there is less pressure for Hard Brexit.FF43 said:With the almost certain demise of UKIP Theresa May doesn't have to go Brexit Cultural Revolution to win ex-supporters for the Tories.
But I think she is already invested.
It's the getting there that's the difficult bit. Labour down to c.150 seats at the next election could be a trigger for a dozen or two leaving the blues for the yellows.
Presumably there would be a Re-enter-Europe-at-any-price party and a Make-the-best-of-what-we-are party.
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Labour have plenty of candidates. Their system just makes it near impossible for any of them to be elected leader.MarqueeMark said:
Both the LibDems and Labour need a new set of MPs first. Neither currently has a anyone who fits the bill as an "eye catching leader".Jobabob said:
Agreed. If the Liberals had an eye catching leader they could challenge well for centrist and centre left votes, particularly in areas where Labour are nowhere. Then the Tories would again be under threat from a Lib Lab pact.SeanT said:
Still, it would take an earthquake to dislodge Labour from its 100 safest seats. That earthquake might have been UKIP. Not any more. Labour aren't going to die out any time soon.Philip_Thompson said:
At that level of swing calculators aren't worth anything.SeanT said:That said, and playing with electoral calculus, it is amazing how low Labour's support has to go before they are overtaken.
Even if you input a result of
45 Tories
20 Lib Dems
10 Labour
10 UKIP
5 Greens
Labour are STILL the second largest party!
FPTP will keep Labour alive for a long long time, even if it condemns them to semi-permanent opposition. Piquant.
Remember they only died in Scotland coz there was a vivid alternative, the SNP. Lacking that, Labour in England will endure, and surely revive one day0 -
It's carpet haggling 1.01...SeanT said:
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.Cookie said:
I'd say that public opinion was always in favour of soft Brexit. Certainly now it looks like we'll definitely leave, you'd expect all of the 48% to be in favour of soft Brexit and probably a good third of the 52% to have always favoured soft Brexit .SeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Heathrow almost certain..
https://www.ft.com/content/d389df74-9486-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582
Hammond and May are fighting the Hard Brexiteers?
https://www.ft.com/content/2633a1dc-9465-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Janan Ganesh thinks voters will change their minds on Brexit, when inflation kicks in
https://www.ft.com/content/15dadb7e-944d-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
In fact, I'd have expected a significant proportion of the 48% to have favoured soft Brexit anyway - but they voted Remain because they feared hard Brexit and preferred Remain to Hard Brexit.
Personally, I'm .a soft Brexiter - but I take the view that you have to be prepared to accept hard Brexit because otherwise there will be no alternative to no Brexit at all. And in my view hard Brexit is better than hard Remain.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Carpet haggling 1.02 is "don't let on what type of carpet you want - nor how much you are prepared to pay". A lesson that the Remoaners need to learn. They are as idiotic as Cameron was.0 -
Congratulations! One of the most welcome price changes of the year.Tissue_Price said:In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
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Of course it is. If you treat the whole country as one hegemony then you can end up with a situation like in Labour where roughly half of all a parties members are in London. Do we want to aggravate a situation whereby only the concern of Londoners is what is tackled? The country exists beyond the M25. Even dividing the nation into regions is not enough as then if you have North West representatives they concentrate on conurbations like Manchester to the exclusion of others.IanB2 said:This is utter tosh. Maybe this made some sort of sense when most towns looked after themselves and sent some sort of representative to lobby a faraway king once or twice a year, but it is no model for a modern so-called democracy.
If a particular region has particular concerns, as for instance Northern Ireland and Scotland do, then it is only appropriate that those concerns are dealt with. Similarly it is for the benefit of the nation that we have MPs representing all corners of our nation whether it be Metropolitans, rural or suburban.0 -
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe0
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If a catalytic change happens it will be an all or nothing kind of change. If a party can arise (whether it be SDP-style, LD or UKIP) to tackle Labour on the left they will either sweep almost all before it, or very little.SouthamObserver said:
With FPTP Labour is the only game in town if you are on the centre left. Corbyn is no obstacle compared to the difficulties of starting from scratch under our current electoral system.AnneJGP said:
Seems fairly credible to me that the realignment might come along the Remain/Leave divide.IanB2 said:
The test is when PB'ers like our Southam recognise that Labour's vision (such as it is) and culture are no longer appropriate to the more individualistic world of the 21st century. Then, there is the prospect of some realignment. So long as they cling to the idea that Corbyn and his hundreds of thousands of lefties might one day disappear in a puff of smoke, as currently appears to be their view, we are stuck with the current impasse as far as progressive politics is concerned.Sandpit said:
With Labour seemingly in self destruct mode, a realignment to the Tories and Whigs as the two main parties is quite possible.williamglenn said:
Orange Bookers, Cameroons and Blairites are the only other viable 'big tent' party of government. They need to get on with the realignment.SeanT said:
The demise of UKIP means there is less pressure for Hard Brexit.FF43 said:With the almost certain demise of UKIP Theresa May doesn't have to go Brexit Cultural Revolution to win ex-supporters for the Tories.
But I think she is already invested.
It's the getting there that's the difficult bit. Labour down to c.150 seats at the next election could be a trigger for a dozen or two leaving the blues for the yellows.
Presumably there would be a Re-enter-Europe-at-any-price party and a Make-the-best-of-what-we-are party.
FPTP does not guarantee a parties survival. Don't just ask the Lib Dems or Scottish Labour, federally you could ask the 1993 Tories in Canada.0 -
A great day for the Can't Be Arsed Party....Black_Rook said:0 -
Looking more like the party's over. Northern Labour MPs will breathe a sigh of relief.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
Opportunity for the English Democrats?0 -
All I can say, Sir, is that your eye is easily caught....Jobabob said:
Labour have plenty of candidates. Their system just makes it near impossible for any of them to be elected leader.MarqueeMark said:
Both the LibDems and Labour need a new set of MPs first. Neither currently has a anyone who fits the bill as an "eye catching leader".Jobabob said:
Agreed. If the Liberals had an eye catching leader they could challenge well for centrist and centre left votes, particularly in areas where Labour are nowhere. Then the Tories would again be under threat from a Lib Lab pact.SeanT said:
Still, it would take an earthquake to dislodge Labour from its 100 safest seats. That earthquake might have been UKIP. Not any more. Labour aren't going to die out any time soon.Philip_Thompson said:
At that level of swing calculators aren't worth anything.SeanT said:That said, and playing with electoral calculus, it is amazing how low Labour's support has to go before they are overtaken.
Even if you input a result of
45 Tories
20 Lib Dems
10 Labour
10 UKIP
5 Greens
Labour are STILL the second largest party!
FPTP will keep Labour alive for a long long time, even if it condemns them to semi-permanent opposition. Piquant.
Remember they only died in Scotland coz there was a vivid alternative, the SNP. Lacking that, Labour in England will endure, and surely revive one day0 -
On Woolfe: The Brexit referendum marked the beginning of the end of UKIP, a party which has been running on Farage's charisma and Aaron Banks's money. Woolfe was supposed to continue this legacy - if he's out, then we can expect the UKIP organisation to degrade quickly into incoherency.
Farage wants to travel the world and spies a career as a right wing pundit on US cable. Banks seems to be giving up in favour of single issue campaigning.
UKIP's polling may be the last to go - there are few other vehicles for the prostate problems vote - but it's goodbye to any hopes of growing their presence in Westminster. Much of the vote will simply dissolve into non-voting. Ironically, I'd expect Carswell to hang on, even as his party label becomes redundant.
It does of course leave the Tory headbangers isolated, ideologically at least. The FT article cited above names the leaders of the hard Brexit gang as Johnson, Fox, Davis, Patel and Leadsom. But Johnson is clearly a fair weather friend, and neither Fox or Davis have many friends in the PLP. Leadsom I think has reassessed her ambitions after 15 minutes of fame. Only Patel could be dangerous, I think.
I could see her trying to mobilise the headbangers if we look to heading toward too soft a Brexit.0 -
What's that sound... is it a bird, is it a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing among Labour MPs in Northern Working Class seats.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.0 -
Congratulations Mr and Mrs Price!!Tissue_Price said:In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
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What proportion of UKIP's income came from Banks?
I seem to recall Banks famously defecting during the Tory conference after the rise of UKIP as the main protest party in the polls so can his influence be overestimated?0 -
Remember when Colorado was a sure thing for Trump and Clinton was finished? Good times, good times.JackW said:Quinnipiac - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania .. Colorado .. 10-16 Oct
FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 44
OH - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45
PA - Clinton 47 .. Trump 41
CO - Clinton 45 .. Trump 37
https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=23880 -
Someone's going to get sent off at Anfield if they carry on like this.0
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The implosion of UKIP makes things worse for the remoaners in the Tory Party. Most of their voters will return to the Tories and will be essential to a future Tory Party. Secondly with UKIP defunct, Farage will be free to form UKIP 2.0 if there is serious backsliding - assuming he isnt by then a Tory Cabinet Minister.SeanT said:
Oh, absolutely. The europhiles who denied us a vote time and again, on lesser issues, where we could have steered the EU to a better place, and avoided this sad rupture, are all to blame. I loathe them. Passionately.Cookie said:
Yes.SeanT said:
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.Cookie said:
ISeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did.
But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.0 -
I wouldn't bet on it just yet. Let's see what Banks, Nige and Wolfe come up with first. Could be AfB.FrancisUrquhart said:
What's that sound...it is a bird, it is a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing in Northern Working Class Labour seats held by Pro-Remainers.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.0 -
More like an opportunity for the Tories. If Ukip implodes then will be interesting to see how much of its vote makes the final leap to the Blues, how much (if any) is willing to tolerate Jeremy Corbyn, and how many give up.Sandpit said:
Looking more like the party's over. Northern Labour MPs will breathe a sigh of relief.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
Opportunity for the English Democrats?
Eng Dems are very fringe and likely to remain so.0 -
@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.0
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You're forgetting that the les headbangers are now Soubry, Clarke etc.Gardenwalker said:On Woolfe: The Brexit referendum marked the beginning of the end of UKIP, a party which has been running on Farage's charisma and Aaron Banks's money. Woolfe was supposed to continue this legacy - if he's out, then we can expect the UKIP organisation to degrade quickly into incoherency.
Farage wants to travel the world and spies a career as a right wing pundit on US cable. Banks seems to be giving up in favour of single issue campaigning.
UKIP's polling may be the last to go - there are few other vehicles for the prostate problems vote - but it's goodbye to any hopes of growing their presence in Westminster. Much of the vote will simply dissolve into non-voting. Ironically, I'd expect Carswell to hang on, even as his party label becomes redundant.
It does of course leave the Tory headbangers isolated, ideologically at least. The FT article cited above names the leaders of the hard Brexit gang as Johnson, Fox, Davis, Patel and Leadsom. But Johnson is clearly a fair weather friend, and neither Fox or Davis have many friends in the PLP. Leadsom I think has reassessed her ambitions after 15 minutes of fame. Only Patel could be dangerous, I think.
I could see her trying to mobilise the headbangers if we look to heading toward too soft a Brexit.
The others you mention are in Govt.0 -
English Nationalist Party?MaxPB said:
I wouldn't bet on it just yet. Let's see what Banks, Nige and Wolfe come up with first. Could be AfB.FrancisUrquhart said:
What's that sound...it is a bird, it is a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing in Northern Working Class Labour seats held by Pro-Remainers.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.0 -
Farage, Tory Cabinet minister? You're having a laugh?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The implosion of UKIP makes things worse for the remoaners in the Tory Party. Most of their voters will return to the Tories and will be essential to a future Tory Party. Secondly with UKIP defunct, Farage will be free to form UKIP 2.0 if there is serious backsliding - assuming he isnt by then a Tory Cabinet Minister.SeanT said:
Oh, absolutely. The europhiles who denied us a vote time and again, on lesser issues, where we could have steered the EU to a better place, and avoided this sad rupture, are all to blame. I loathe them. Passionately.Cookie said:
Yes.SeanT said:
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.Cookie said:
ISeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did.
But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.0 -
They've finally become embarrassed about their guest, who I suspect has long outstayed his welcome.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
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Something in common with Corbyn, then.Gardenwalker said:
But Johnson is clearly a fair weather friend, and neither Fox or Davis have many friends in the PLP.0 -
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
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Assange in "Quito" bit of trouble?Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
0 -
The day Farage becomes a Tory is the day I become a Lib Dem.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The implosion of UKIP makes things worse for the remoaners in the Tory Party. Most of their voters will return to the Tories and will be essential to a future Tory Party. Secondly with UKIP defunct, Farage will be free to form UKIP 2.0 if there is serious backsliding - assuming he isnt by then a Tory Cabinet Minister.SeanT said:
Oh, absolutely. The europhiles who denied us a vote time and again, on lesser issues, where we could have steered the EU to a better place, and avoided this sad rupture, are all to blame. I loathe them. Passionately.Cookie said:
Yes.SeanT said:
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.Cookie said:
ISeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did.
But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.0 -
Is Woolf gonna become a Tory?Philip_Thompson said:
The day Farage becomes a Tory is the day I become a Lib Dem.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The implosion of UKIP makes things worse for the remoaners in the Tory Party. Most of their voters will return to the Tories and will be essential to a future Tory Party. Secondly with UKIP defunct, Farage will be free to form UKIP 2.0 if there is serious backsliding - assuming he isnt by then a Tory Cabinet Minister.SeanT said:
Oh, absolutely. The europhiles who denied us a vote time and again, on lesser issues, where we could have steered the EU to a better place, and avoided this sad rupture, are all to blame. I loathe them. Passionately.Cookie said:
Yes.SeanT said:
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.Cookie said:
ISeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did.
But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.
0 -
tSunil_Prasannan said:
Asaange in "Quito" bit of trouble?Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
turns out being massively Pro Trump has backfired on assange.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Asaange in "Quito" bit of trouble?Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
0 -
What is this "Soft BrExit" of which you speak ?SeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Heathrow almost certain..
https://www.ft.com/content/d389df74-9486-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582
Hammond and May are fighting the Hard Brexiteers?
https://www.ft.com/content/2633a1dc-9465-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Janan Ganesh thinks voters will change their minds on Brexit, when inflation kicks in
https://www.ft.com/content/15dadb7e-944d-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
We have to at least entertain the possibility that Tusk was speaking the truth, that is Hard BrExit or No BrExit. The later of which is a guaranteed election loss.0 -
They will never use the word nationalist in any new party. I think the policies will be closer to AfD. Anti-immigration, anti-refugee, anti-globalisation and shamelessly patriotic in a way that older voters identify with.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
English Nationalist Party?MaxPB said:
I wouldn't bet on it just yet. Let's see what Banks, Nige and Wolfe come up with first. Could be AfB.FrancisUrquhart said:
What's that sound...it is a bird, it is a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing in Northern Working Class Labour seats held by Pro-Remainers.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.0 -
Isn't he just anti Clinton?619 said:
tSunil_Prasannan said:
Asaange in "Quito" bit of trouble?Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
turns out being massively Pro Trump has backfired on assange.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Asaange in "Quito" bit of trouble?Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
0 -
Why not call themselves nationalist as that's what they'd be? Worked for the SNP (which has possibly detoxified the word).MaxPB said:
They will never use the word nationalist in any new party. I think the policies will be closer to AfD. Anti-immigration, anti-refugee, anti-globalisation and shamelessly patriotic in a way that older voters identify with.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
English Nationalist Party?MaxPB said:
I wouldn't bet on it just yet. Let's see what Banks, Nige and Wolfe come up with first. Could be AfB.FrancisUrquhart said:
What's that sound...it is a bird, it is a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing in Northern Working Class Labour seats held by Pro-Remainers.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.0 -
Given that the 'Embassy' is a two bedroomed apartment, and he's not left the building since he walked through the door in June 2012, I'd say his welcome was outstayed some time ago.RobD said:
They've finally become embarrassed about their guest, who I suspect has long outstayed his welcome.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
0 -
-
He is like one of those friends you make on holiday, which you say if you are ever passing we would love to have you stay, thinking chances of them ever doing so is practically zero....then they appear at your front door and never want to leave....Sandpit said:
Given that the 'Embassy' is a two bedroomed apartment, and he's not left the building since he walked through the door in June 2012, I'd say his welcome was outstayed some time ago.RobD said:
They've finally become embarrassed about their guest, who I suspect has long outstayed his welcome.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
0 -
The Trump supporters on Reddit have been flipping out about this all day. If you believed them the US cut his internet, then overnight the UK police stormed the embassy and nabbed Assange, the police then handed Assange to the US government who flew him on a private jet to the US. All of this to stop Wikileaks from delivering a killer blow to Clinton's campaign. What evidence did they have for all of this? None.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
So if it is Assange's hosts that cut the internet that is just perfect.0 -
These are very solid polls for Clinton, the more so as 538 adjustment adds +2 to her lead in each state as Q has small GOP lean thus cycle.Alistair said:
Remember when Colorado was a sure thing for Trump and Clinton was finished? Good times, good times.JackW said:Quinnipiac - Florida .. Ohio .. Pennsylvania .. Colorado .. 10-16 Oct
FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 44
OH - Clinton 45 .. Trump 45
PA - Clinton 47 .. Trump 41
CO - Clinton 45 .. Trump 37
https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=23880 -
I read that as Banks famously defecating during the Tory conference!Philip_Thompson said:What proportion of UKIP's income came from Banks?
I seem to recall Banks famously defecting during the Tory conference after the rise of UKIP as the main protest party in the polls so can his influence be overestimated?0 -
Canada are negotiating very significant trade access with no obligation on FoM.Indigo said:
What is this "Soft BrExit" of which you speak ?SeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Heathrow almost certain..
https://www.ft.com/content/d389df74-9486-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582
Hammond and May are fighting the Hard Brexiteers?
https://www.ft.com/content/2633a1dc-9465-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Janan Ganesh thinks voters will change their minds on Brexit, when inflation kicks in
https://www.ft.com/content/15dadb7e-944d-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
We have to at least entertain the possibility that Tusk was speaking the truth, that is Hard BrExit or No BrExit. The later of which is a guaranteed election loss.
Is that Hard, Soft, Remain?
The Spanish Foreign Minister was suggesting that option was open to us.0 -
in a 2 horse race, when you are actively trying to ruin one of the horses, id say thats not much of a distinction...RobD said:
Isn't he just anti Clinton?619 said:
tSunil_Prasannan said:
Asaange in "Quito" bit of trouble?Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
turns out being massively Pro Trump has backfired on assange.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Asaange in "Quito" bit of trouble?Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
0 -
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/7880863358526668800 -
That would be the Scottish National Party. I'm not aware of any Scottish Nationalist Party.Philip_Thompson said:
Why not call themselves nationalist as that's what they'd be? Worked for the SNP (which has possibly detoxified the word).MaxPB said:
They will never use the word nationalist in any new party. I think the policies will be closer to AfD. Anti-immigration, anti-refugee, anti-globalisation and shamelessly patriotic in a way that older voters identify with.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
English Nationalist Party?MaxPB said:
I wouldn't bet on it just yet. Let's see what Banks, Nige and Wolfe come up with first. Could be AfB.FrancisUrquhart said:
What's that sound...it is a bird, it is a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing in Northern Working Class Labour seats held by Pro-Remainers.Scott_P said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.0 -
I think it's a pretty big distinction, actually.619 said:
in a 2 horse race, when you are actively trying to ruin one of the horses, id say thats not much of a distinction...RobD said:
Isn't he just anti Clinton?619 said:
tSunil_Prasannan said:
Asaange in "Quito" bit of trouble?Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
turns out being massively Pro Trump has backfired on assange.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Asaange in "Quito" bit of trouble?Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
0 -
Canada didn't just vote to leave the EU.chestnut said:
Canada are negotiating very significant trade access with no obligation on FoM.Indigo said:
What is this "Soft BrExit" of which you speak ?SeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Heathrow almost certain..
https://www.ft.com/content/d389df74-9486-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582
Hammond and May are fighting the Hard Brexiteers?
https://www.ft.com/content/2633a1dc-9465-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Janan Ganesh thinks voters will change their minds on Brexit, when inflation kicks in
https://www.ft.com/content/15dadb7e-944d-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
We have to at least entertain the possibility that Tusk was speaking the truth, that is Hard BrExit or No BrExit. The later of which is a guaranteed election loss.
Is that Hard, Soft, Remain?
The Spanish Foreign Minister was suggesting that option was open to us.
I never think it is a good idea to underestimate the small mindedness of our EU "friends" when their unrealistic fantasy dream is under threat.0 -
Congrats! I shall be raising a glass to your good news.Tissue_Price said:In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
0 -
Why don't we have a FTA with Canada to re-export our products to the EU through Canada.Indigo said:
Canada didn't just vote to leave the EU.chestnut said:
Canada are negotiating very significant trade access with no obligation on FoM.Indigo said:
What is this "Soft BrExit" of which you speak ?SeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Heathrow almost certain..
https://www.ft.com/content/d389df74-9486-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582
Hammond and May are fighting the Hard Brexiteers?
https://www.ft.com/content/2633a1dc-9465-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Janan Ganesh thinks voters will change their minds on Brexit, when inflation kicks in
https://www.ft.com/content/15dadb7e-944d-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
We have to at least entertain the possibility that Tusk was speaking the truth, that is Hard BrExit or No BrExit. The later of which is a guaranteed election loss.
Is that Hard, Soft, Remain?
The Spanish Foreign Minister was suggesting that option was open to us.
I never think it is a good idea to underestimate the small mindedness of our EU "friends" when their unrealistic fantasy dream is under threat.0 -
The Hillary emails story is one of the dullest stories ever. It is tear inducingly dull - beaten only by Wikileaks' output on anything at allSpeedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/7880863358526668800 -
Lying corrupt turd sandwich vs sexist racist giant douche...thats America's choice.Speedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/7880863358526668800 -
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.Speedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/7880863358526668800 -
Like lots of the dodgy stuff relating to the Clintons e.g. pay for play allegations, I am sure there won't be a smoking gun. Somebody is always the unlucky fall guy and will get chucked under the bus if required.Sandpit said:
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.Speedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/788086335852666880
Its the advantage of knowing the system inside out. It reminds me of House of Cards (US edition)...0 -
Did someone say the cover-up is worse than the crime ?Jobabob said:
The Hillary emails story is one of the dullest stories ever. It is tear inducingly dull - beaten only by Wikileaks' output on anything at allSpeedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/7880863358526668800 -
I do accept that they really want to protect their 'vision' and that any outcome must reflect that just as ours must reflect the referendum result.Indigo said:
Canada didn't just vote to leave the EU.chestnut said:
Canada are negotiating very significant trade access with no obligation on FoM.Indigo said:
What is this "Soft BrExit" of which you speak ?SeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Heathrow almost certain..
https://www.ft.com/content/d389df74-9486-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582
Hammond and May are fighting the Hard Brexiteers?
https://www.ft.com/content/2633a1dc-9465-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Janan Ganesh thinks voters will change their minds on Brexit, when inflation kicks in
https://www.ft.com/content/15dadb7e-944d-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
We have to at least entertain the possibility that Tusk was speaking the truth, that is Hard BrExit or No BrExit. The later of which is a guaranteed election loss.
Is that Hard, Soft, Remain?
The Spanish Foreign Minister was suggesting that option was open to us.
I never think it is a good idea to underestimate the small mindedness of our EU "friends" when their unrealistic fantasy dream is under threat.
Within those parameters though, sense must prevail with some workable compromise drummed up if only to see national politicians through into their own national elections.0 -
But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.Philip_Thompson said:
The day Farage becomes a Tory is the day I become a Lib Dem.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The implosion of UKIP makes things worse for the remoaners in the Tory Party. Most of their voters will return to the Tories and will be essential to a future Tory Party. Secondly with UKIP defunct, Farage will be free to form UKIP 2.0 if there is serious backsliding - assuming he isnt by then a Tory Cabinet Minister.SeanT said:
Oh, absolutely. The europhiles who denied us a vote time and again, on lesser issues, where we could have steered the EU to a better place, and avoided this sad rupture, are all to blame. I loathe them. Passionately.Cookie said:
Yes.SeanT said:
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.Cookie said:
ISeanT said:
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.chestnut said:
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.SeanT said:Some interesting articles in the FT
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did.
But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.0 -
They should ask her on the debate stage on Wednesday.Sandpit said:
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.Speedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/7880863358526668800 -
About as fun as watching a cockroach ennoble an emerald cockroach wasp.Sean_F said:But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.
0 -
SeanF, I can imagine your reticence in answering after the hopes you have invested in UKIP - but do you think it is now a spent force in Westminster politics?Sean_F said:
But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.0 -
You probably said thatSpeedy said:
Did someone say the cover-up is worse than the crime ?Jobabob said:
The Hillary emails story is one of the dullest stories ever. It is tear inducingly dull - beaten only by Wikileaks' output on anything at allSpeedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/7880863358526668800 -
Fat chance of any action before the election, or after. The DOJ is letting her off the hook because it would cause chaos to indict a candidate.Sandpit said:Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
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Her statement that she didn't understand the classification markings is an outright lie, if at the same time her number two at State is discussing them with the FBI.FrancisUrquhart said:
Like lots of the dodgy stuff relating to the Clintons e.g. pay for play allegations, I am sure there won't be a smoking gun. Somebody is always the unlucky fall guy and will get chucked under the bus if required.Sandpit said:
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.Speedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/788086335852666880
Its the advantage of knowing the system inside out. It reminds me of House of Cards (US edition)...
I've said before that the RNC PAC would be mad not to run a spoof 'House of Cards' trailer from the final debate to Election Day.0 -
its someone apparently in the state dept, but very loosely linked to Clinton and no evidnece she was involved.Speedy said:
They should ask her on the debate stage on Wednesday.Sandpit said:
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.Speedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/788086335852666880
so... SNOOOZZEEE0 -
Sky have been marketing Liverpool v Man Utd all day. Awful game.0
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Government departments and agencies are bartering all the time. Granted it doesn't look good but there's no evidence that Clinton herself made the request.Sandpit said:
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.Speedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/7880863358526668800 -
Thanks for the compliment.Jobabob said:
You probably said thatSpeedy said:
Did someone say the cover-up is worse than the crime ?Jobabob said:
The Hillary emails story is one of the dullest stories ever. It is tear inducingly dull - beaten only by Wikileaks' output on anything at allSpeedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/7880863358526668800 -
Mourinho parking the bus against Liverpool is quite predictable.chestnut said:Sky have been marketing Liverpool v Man Utd all day. Awful game.
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On any normal following of the rules Farage deserves a peerage. Indeed he should have been made a Privy Counsellor sometime ago.0
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One of those "it would be hilarious if [nasty hard right person gains in an unlikely manner]" posts right wingers are so fond on.Philip_Thompson said:
About as fun as watching a cockroach ennoble an emerald cockroach wasp.Sean_F said:But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.
It would be hilarious if Ed Miliband was discovered to be the lovechild of the Queen and therefore was next in line for the throne.0 -
The Telegraph are running the headline "Donald Trump alleges 'large scale voter fraud', raising fears he could refuse to concede". When they hear that kind of idea I wonder what proportion of the US electorate decide that rather than abstaining or voting for one of Trump's opponents they will now vote for Trump, because it's safer. Surely some will take the view that a Trump loss may well lead to civil war whereas a Trump win probably won't? Trump's presentation contains a big dollop of "I'm a strong man who's going to make people safe".0
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More likely they're well aware of 1.02, but are just desperately trying anything to delay the triggering of Article 50 and/or send us into negotiations as weak and hamstrung as possible in the vain hope that they can find a way to throw a spanner in the works of Brexit. All rather sad.MarqueeMark said:
It's carpet haggling 1.01...SeanT said:
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Carpet haggling 1.02 is "don't let on what type of carpet you want - nor how much you are prepared to pay". A lesson that the Remoaners need to learn. They are as idiotic as Cameron was.0 -
Speedy said:
Thanks for the compliment.Jobabob said:
You probably said thatSpeedy said:
Did someone say the cover-up is worse than the crime ?Jobabob said:
The Hillary emails story is one of the dullest stories ever. It is tear inducingly dull - beaten only by Wikileaks' output on anything at allSpeedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/788086335852666880
It wasn't oneSpeedy said:
Thanks for the compliment.Jobabob said:
You probably said thatSpeedy said:
Did someone say the cover-up is worse than the crime ?Jobabob said:
The Hillary emails story is one of the dullest stories ever. It is tear inducingly dull - beaten only by Wikileaks' output on anything at allSpeedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/7880863358526668800 -
Congratulations!Tissue_Price said:In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
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I suspect it will have no effect or the opposite effect. It smacks of sheer desperationDromedary said:The Telegraph are running the headline "Donald Trump alleges 'large scale voter fraud', raising fears he could refuse to concede". When they hear that kind of idea I wonder what proportion of the US electorate decide that rather than abstaining or voting for one of Trump's opponents they will now vote for Trump, because it's safer.
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Agreed. Difficult to argue he hasn't made a large contribution to public life. Would be surprised if there isn't something for him in the new year honours.YellowSubmarine said:On any normal following of the rules Farage deserves a peerage. Indeed he should have been made a Privy Counsellor sometime ago.
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In all likelihood, unless the government backtracks/falls over Brexit.MarqueeMark said:
SeanF, I can imagine your reticence in answering after the hopes you have invested in UKIP - but do you think it is now a spent force in Westminster politics?Sean_F said:
But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.0 -
The DOJ is letting her off the hook because otherwise Trump would become President.glw said:
Fat chance of any action before the election, or after. The DOJ is letting her off the hook because it would cause chaos to indict a candidate.Sandpit said:Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Not sure what would happen after the election has passed, though without 67 GOP senators to impeach her, Hillary will still stay in office until she loses the 2020 election as a lame duck.0 -
Bastards don't inherit the throne, alas for that counterfactual. Various attempts have been made over the years to overturn the convention but generally end up with said illegitmate person in a different part of the Tower of London from their head.Jobabob said:
One of those "it would be hilarious if [nasty hard right person gains in an unlikely manner]" posts right wingers are so fond on.Philip_Thompson said:
About as fun as watching a cockroach ennoble an emerald cockroach wasp.Sean_F said:But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.
It would be hilarious if Ed Miliband was discovered to be the lovechild of the Queen and therefore was next in line for the throne.0 -
Many thanks to everyone for their congratulations :-)0
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Not unless they're called William and were born in Normandy.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Bastards don't inherit the throne, alas for that counterfactualJobabob said:
One of those "it would be hilarious if [nasty hard right person gains in an unlikely manner]" posts right wingers are so fond on.Philip_Thompson said:
About as fun as watching a cockroach ennoble an emerald cockroach wasp.Sean_F said:But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.
It would be hilarious if Ed Miliband was discovered to be the lovechild of the Queen and therefore was next in line for the throne.0 -
If she truly *didn't* understand the classification markings, wouldn't that make her too stupid to be Secretary of State?Sandpit said:
Her statement that she didn't understand the classification markings is an outright lie, if at the same time her number two at State is discussing them with the FBI.FrancisUrquhart said:
Like lots of the dodgy stuff relating to the Clintons e.g. pay for play allegations, I am sure there won't be a smoking gun. Somebody is always the unlucky fall guy and will get chucked under the bus if required.Sandpit said:
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.Speedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/788086335852666880
Its the advantage of knowing the system inside out. It reminds me of House of Cards (US edition)...
I've said before that the RNC PAC would be mad not to run a spoof 'House of Cards' trailer from the final debate to Election Day.0 -
Congratulations for the baby, I just read it on the comments bellow.Tissue_Price said:Many thanks to everyone for their congratulations :-)
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Mixed metaphors there surely? She won't be a lame duck until 2024 and can't lose the election then when she is.Speedy said:
The DOJ is letting her off the hook because otherwise Trump would become President.glw said:
Fat chance of any action before the election, or after. The DOJ is letting her off the hook because it would cause chaos to indict a candidate.Sandpit said:Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Not sure what would happen after the election has passed, though without 67 GOP senators to impeach her, Hillary will still stay in office until she loses the 2020 election as a lame duck.0 -
Splendid news. Now the fun really starts as there are more of them than there are of you.Tissue_Price said:Many thanks to everyone for their congratulations :-)
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The problem is that (a) we decided to buy the Carpet publiclly by referendum before deciding what 1.01 and 1.02 are ( b) We still haven't decided what 1.01 and 1.02 are and in a democracy can't really be kept secret from the Carpet Seller. ( c) Once A50 is invoked we have to buy a carpet at the end of two years. We can't walk away. Only the quality of the carpet is at stake. ( d ) 48% of hagglers didn't want to buy the Carpet in the first place. ( e) of the 52% that did want floor covering there were huge disagreement what sort. ( f ) The Carpet Seller is unconventional. They don't want repeat trade. They either want you not to enter the shop in the first place or buy a **** carpet you'll hate. They don't want success.Essexit said:
More likely they're well aware of 1.02, but are just desperately trying anything to delay the triggering of Article 50 and/or send us into negotiations as weak and hamstrung as possible in the vain hope that they can find a way to throw a spanner in the works of Brexit. All rather sad.MarqueeMark said:
It's carpet haggling 1.01...SeanT said:
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Carpet haggling 1.02 is "don't let on what type of carpet you want - nor how much you are prepared to pay". A lesson that the Remoaners need to learn. They are as idiotic as Cameron was.0 -
Hard to have any respect for those playing this game. Be interesting to see after Article 50 is triggered, how many will be seeking to Rejoin the EU. Complete with the Euro.Essexit said:
More likely they're well aware of 1.02, but are just desperately trying anything to delay the triggering of Article 50 and/or send us into negotiations as weak and hamstrung as possible in the vain hope that they can find a way to throw a spanner in the works of Brexit. All rather sad.MarqueeMark said:
It's carpet haggling 1.01...SeanT said:
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Carpet haggling 1.02 is "don't let on what type of carpet you want - nor how much you are prepared to pay". A lesson that the Remoaners need to learn. They are as idiotic as Cameron was.
I'm thinking not so many...0 -
In the eyes of most people, yes, but Mrs Slopey Shoulders will find some weasel words to get around it, probably involving Russian hackers and trying to shoot the messenger.Sean_F said:
If she truly *didn't* understand the classification markings, wouldn't that make her too stupid to Secretary of State?Sandpit said:
Her statement that she didn't understand the classification markings is an outright lie, if at the same time her number two at State is discussing them with the FBI.FrancisUrquhart said:
Like lots of the dodgy stuff relating to the Clintons e.g. pay for play allegations, I am sure there won't be a smoking gun. Somebody is always the unlucky fall guy and will get chucked under the bus if required.Sandpit said:
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.Speedy said:
Perhaps the words of the Washington Post will carry more weight ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I no longer believe a word they say.Scott_P said:@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/788086335852666880
Its the advantage of knowing the system inside out. It reminds me of House of Cards (US edition)...
I've said before that the RNC PAC would be mad not to run a spoof 'House of Cards' trailer from the final debate to Election Day.
What would affect her is evidence of a straight up lie to the emails enquiry, alas I don't think we've got that yet.0 -
Or Elizabeth (the first of her name).Dromedary said:
Not unless they're called William and were born in Normandy.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Bastards don't inherit the throne, alas for that counterfactualJobabob said:
One of those "it would be hilarious if [nasty hard right person gains in an unlikely manner]" posts right wingers are so fond on.Philip_Thompson said:
About as fun as watching a cockroach ennoble an emerald cockroach wasp.Sean_F said:But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.
It would be hilarious if Ed Miliband was discovered to be the lovechild of the Queen and therefore was next in line for the throne.0 -
We have to buy a carpet but there's no guarantee which carpet we will buy.YellowSubmarine said:
The problem is that (a) we decided to buy the Carpet publiclly by referendum before deciding what 1.01 and 1.02 are ( b) We still haven't decided what 1.01 and 1.02 are and in a democracy can't really be kept secret from the Carpet Seller. ( c) Once A50 is invoked we have to buy a carpet at the end of two years. We can't walk away. Only the quality of the carpet is at stake. ( d ) 48% of hagglers didn't want to buy the Carpet in the first place. ( e) of the 52% that did want floor covering there were huge disagreement what sort. ( f ) The Carpet Seller is unconventional. They don't want repeat trade. They either want you not to enter the shop in the first place or buy a **** carpet you'll hate. They don't want success.Essexit said:
More likely they're well aware of 1.02, but are just desperately trying anything to delay the triggering of Article 50 and/or send us into negotiations as weak and hamstrung as possible in the vain hope that they can find a way to throw a spanner in the works of Brexit. All rather sad.MarqueeMark said:
It's carpet haggling 1.01...SeanT said:
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Carpet haggling 1.02 is "don't let on what type of carpet you want - nor how much you are prepared to pay". A lesson that the Remoaners need to learn. They are as idiotic as Cameron was.0 -
Hillary won't win re-election, Trump would be too old to run in 2020.Philip_Thompson said:
Mixed metaphors there surely? She won't be a lame duck until 2024 and can't lose the election then when she is.Speedy said:
The DOJ is letting her off the hook because otherwise Trump would become President.glw said:
Fat chance of any action before the election, or after. The DOJ is letting her off the hook because it would cause chaos to indict a candidate.Sandpit said:Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Not sure what would happen after the election has passed, though without 67 GOP senators to impeach her, Hillary will still stay in office until she loses the 2020 election as a lame duck.0
