Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
I'd say that public opinion was always in favour of soft Brexit. Certainly now it looks like we'll definitely leave, you'd expect all of the 48% to be in favour of soft Brexit and probably a good third of the 52% to have always favoured soft Brexit . In fact, I'd have expected a significant proportion of the 48% to have favoured soft Brexit anyway - but they voted Remain because they feared hard Brexit and preferred Remain to Hard Brexit. Personally, I'm .a soft Brexiter - but I take the view that you have to be prepared to accept hard Brexit because otherwise there will be no alternative to no Brexit at all. And in my view hard Brexit is better than hard Remain.
That said, and playing with electoral calculus, it is amazing how low Labour's support has to go before they are overtaken.
Even if you input a result of
45 Tories
20 Lib Dems
10 Labour
10 UKIP
5 Greens
Labour are STILL the second largest party!
FPTP will keep Labour alive for a long long time, even if it condemns them to semi-permanent opposition. Piquant.
At that level of swing calculators aren't worth anything.
Still, it would take an earthquake to dislodge Labour from its 100 safest seats. That earthquake might have been UKIP. Not any more. Labour aren't going to die out any time soon.
Remember they only died in Scotland coz there was a vivid alternative, the SNP. Lacking that, Labour in England will endure, and surely revive one day
Agreed. If the Liberals had an eye catching leader they could challenge well for centrist and centre left votes, particularly in areas where Labour are nowhere. Then the Tories would again be under threat from a Lib Lab pact.
In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
Congratulations, welcome to a life of spelling your first name out Maia
We debated sparing her the slightly more unusual form of her middle name on the basis that she already had enough on her plate...
That said, and playing with electoral calculus, it is amazing how low Labour's support has to go before they are overtaken.
Even if you input a result of
45 Tories
20 Lib Dems
10 Labour
10 UKIP
5 Greens
Labour are STILL the second largest party!
FPTP will keep Labour alive for a long long time, even if it condemns them to semi-permanent opposition. Piquant.
At that level of swing calculators aren't worth anything.
Except that if the votes fall as you input, the results will be as predicted. They illustrate how ridiculous is our voting system, hugely biased towards parties that can concentrate their support (the very opposite of what any sensible democracy should want).
No they would not. Try entering 2015 election results into 2010-2015 seat projectors. They fail.
You miss my point. The seat model within the calculator tells you how many seats each party wins, and also tells you how many votes they get in total (which is, of course, the total that you input in the first place). If the votes fall exactly as modelled in the calculator, then the result is the one you will get. You can argue until the cows come home that in practice the same votes might be distributed differently, but you cannot argue that if the calculator has the vote distribution correct, the result is as it says.
Except you're delusional if you believe that you can cut a parties share by two-thirds and "the votes fall exactly as modelled in the calculator". It has simply never happened.
"If the model is correct the result is correct" is a truism not an argument.
Of course. But who is to say whether those same votes fall in a more, or less, favourable way? That is just speculation. The point is that the calculator's result is theoretically possible, but undeniably unreasonable.
It's not undeniably unreasonable. We all elect the most popular local representatives, if the most popular representative in a local area is concentrated in one party then that is the choice of those voters.
This is utter tosh. Maybe this made some sort of sense when most towns mostly looked after themselves, but sent some sort of representative to lobby a faraway king once or twice a year. But it is no model for a modern so-called democracy.
That said, and playing with electoral calculus, it is amazing how low Labour's support has to go before they are overtaken.
Even if you input a result of
45 Tories
20 Lib Dems
10 Labour
10 UKIP
5 Greens
Labour are STILL the second largest party!
FPTP will keep Labour alive for a long long time, even if it condemns them to semi-permanent opposition. Piquant.
At that level of swing calculators aren't worth anything.
Still, it would take an earthquake to dislodge Labour from its 100 safest seats. That earthquake might have been UKIP. Not any more. Labour aren't going to die out any time soon.
Remember they only died in Scotland coz there was a vivid alternative, the SNP. Lacking that, Labour in England will endure, and surely revive one day
Agreed. If the Liberals had an eye catching leader they could challenge well for centrist and centre left votes, particularly in areas where Labour are nowhere. Then the Tories would again be under threat from a Lib Lab pact.
Both the LibDems and Labour need a new set of MPs first. Neither currently has a anyone who fits the bill as an "eye catching leader".
In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
I'd say that public opinion was always in favour of soft Brexit. Certainly now it looks like we'll definitely leave, you'd expect all of the 48% to be in favour of soft Brexit and probably a good third of the 52% to have always favoured soft Brexit . In fact, I'd have expected a significant proportion of the 48% to have favoured soft Brexit anyway - but they voted Remain because they feared hard Brexit and preferred Remain to Hard Brexit. Personally, I'm .a soft Brexiter - but I take the view that you have to be prepared to accept hard Brexit because otherwise there will be no alternative to no Brexit at all. And in my view hard Brexit is better than hard Remain.
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Yes. Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did. But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.
With the almost certain demise of UKIP Theresa May doesn't have to go Brexit Cultural Revolution to win ex-supporters for the Tories.
But I think she is already invested.
The demise of UKIP means there is less pressure for Hard Brexit.
Orange Bookers, Cameroons and Blairites are the only other viable 'big tent' party of government. They need to get on with the realignment.
With Labour seemingly in self destruct mode, a realignment to the Tories and Whigs as the two main parties is quite possible.
It's the getting there that's the difficult bit. Labour down to c.150 seats at the next election could be a trigger for a dozen or two leaving the blues for the yellows.
The test is when PB'ers like our Southam recognise that Labour's vision (such as it is) and culture are no longer appropriate to the more individualistic world of the 21st century. Then, there is the prospect of some realignment. So long as they cling to the idea that Corbyn and his hundreds of thousands of lefties might one day disappear in a puff of smoke, as currently appears to be their view, we are stuck with the current impasse as far as progressive politics is concerned.
Seems fairly credible to me that the realignment might come along the Remain/Leave divide.
Presumably there would be a Re-enter-Europe-at-any-price party and a Make-the-best-of-what-we-are party.
With FPTP Labour is the only game in town if you are on the centre left. Corbyn is no obstacle compared to the difficulties of starting from scratch under our current electoral system.
That said, and playing with electoral calculus, it is amazing how low Labour's support has to go before they are overtaken.
Even if you input a result of
45 Tories
20 Lib Dems
10 Labour
10 UKIP
5 Greens
Labour are STILL the second largest party!
FPTP will keep Labour alive for a long long time, even if it condemns them to semi-permanent opposition. Piquant.
At that level of swing calculators aren't worth anything.
Still, it would take an earthquake to dislodge Labour from its 100 safest seats. That earthquake might have been UKIP. Not any more. Labour aren't going to die out any time soon.
Remember they only died in Scotland coz there was a vivid alternative, the SNP. Lacking that, Labour in England will endure, and surely revive one day
Agreed. If the Liberals had an eye catching leader they could challenge well for centrist and centre left votes, particularly in areas where Labour are nowhere. Then the Tories would again be under threat from a Lib Lab pact.
Both the LibDems and Labour need a new set of MPs first. Neither currently has a anyone who fits the bill as an "eye catching leader".
Labour have plenty of candidates. Their system just makes it near impossible for any of them to be elected leader.
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
I'd say that public opinion was always in favour of soft Brexit. Certainly now it looks like we'll definitely leave, you'd expect all of the 48% to be in favour of soft Brexit and probably a good third of the 52% to have always favoured soft Brexit . In fact, I'd have expected a significant proportion of the 48% to have favoured soft Brexit anyway - but they voted Remain because they feared hard Brexit and preferred Remain to Hard Brexit. Personally, I'm .a soft Brexiter - but I take the view that you have to be prepared to accept hard Brexit because otherwise there will be no alternative to no Brexit at all. And in my view hard Brexit is better than hard Remain.
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
It's carpet haggling 1.01...
Carpet haggling 1.02 is "don't let on what type of carpet you want - nor how much you are prepared to pay". A lesson that the Remoaners need to learn. They are as idiotic as Cameron was.
In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
Congratulations! One of the most welcome price changes of the year.
This is utter tosh. Maybe this made some sort of sense when most towns looked after themselves and sent some sort of representative to lobby a faraway king once or twice a year, but it is no model for a modern so-called democracy.
Of course it is. If you treat the whole country as one hegemony then you can end up with a situation like in Labour where roughly half of all a parties members are in London. Do we want to aggravate a situation whereby only the concern of Londoners is what is tackled? The country exists beyond the M25. Even dividing the nation into regions is not enough as then if you have North West representatives they concentrate on conurbations like Manchester to the exclusion of others.
If a particular region has particular concerns, as for instance Northern Ireland and Scotland do, then it is only appropriate that those concerns are dealt with. Similarly it is for the benefit of the nation that we have MPs representing all corners of our nation whether it be Metropolitans, rural or suburban.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
With the almost certain demise of UKIP Theresa May doesn't have to go Brexit Cultural Revolution to win ex-supporters for the Tories.
But I think she is already invested.
The demise of UKIP means there is less pressure for Hard Brexit.
Orange Bookers, Cameroons and Blairites are the only other viable 'big tent' party of government. They need to get on with the realignment.
With Labour seemingly in self destruct mode, a realignment to the Tories and Whigs as the two main parties is quite possible.
It's the getting there that's the difficult bit. Labour down to c.150 seats at the next election could be a trigger for a dozen or two leaving the blues for the yellows.
The test is when PB'ers like our Southam recognise that Labour's vision (such as it is) and culture are no longer appropriate to the more individualistic world of the 21st century. Then, there is the prospect of some realignment. So long as they cling to the idea that Corbyn and his hundreds of thousands of lefties might one day disappear in a puff of smoke, as currently appears to be their view, we are stuck with the current impasse as far as progressive politics is concerned.
Seems fairly credible to me that the realignment might come along the Remain/Leave divide.
Presumably there would be a Re-enter-Europe-at-any-price party and a Make-the-best-of-what-we-are party.
With FPTP Labour is the only game in town if you are on the centre left. Corbyn is no obstacle compared to the difficulties of starting from scratch under our current electoral system.
If a catalytic change happens it will be an all or nothing kind of change. If a party can arise (whether it be SDP-style, LD or UKIP) to tackle Labour on the left they will either sweep almost all before it, or very little.
FPTP does not guarantee a parties survival. Don't just ask the Lib Dems or Scottish Labour, federally you could ask the 1993 Tories in Canada.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
Looking more like the party's over. Northern Labour MPs will breathe a sigh of relief.
That said, and playing with electoral calculus, it is amazing how low Labour's support has to go before they are overtaken.
Even if you input a result of
45 Tories
20 Lib Dems
10 Labour
10 UKIP
5 Greens
Labour are STILL the second largest party!
FPTP will keep Labour alive for a long long time, even if it condemns them to semi-permanent opposition. Piquant.
At that level of swing calculators aren't worth anything.
Still, it would take an earthquake to dislodge Labour from its 100 safest seats. That earthquake might have been UKIP. Not any more. Labour aren't going to die out any time soon.
Remember they only died in Scotland coz there was a vivid alternative, the SNP. Lacking that, Labour in England will endure, and surely revive one day
Agreed. If the Liberals had an eye catching leader they could challenge well for centrist and centre left votes, particularly in areas where Labour are nowhere. Then the Tories would again be under threat from a Lib Lab pact.
Both the LibDems and Labour need a new set of MPs first. Neither currently has a anyone who fits the bill as an "eye catching leader".
Labour have plenty of candidates. Their system just makes it near impossible for any of them to be elected leader.
All I can say, Sir, is that your eye is easily caught....
On Woolfe: The Brexit referendum marked the beginning of the end of UKIP, a party which has been running on Farage's charisma and Aaron Banks's money. Woolfe was supposed to continue this legacy - if he's out, then we can expect the UKIP organisation to degrade quickly into incoherency.
Farage wants to travel the world and spies a career as a right wing pundit on US cable. Banks seems to be giving up in favour of single issue campaigning.
UKIP's polling may be the last to go - there are few other vehicles for the prostate problems vote - but it's goodbye to any hopes of growing their presence in Westminster. Much of the vote will simply dissolve into non-voting. Ironically, I'd expect Carswell to hang on, even as his party label becomes redundant.
It does of course leave the Tory headbangers isolated, ideologically at least. The FT article cited above names the leaders of the hard Brexit gang as Johnson, Fox, Davis, Patel and Leadsom. But Johnson is clearly a fair weather friend, and neither Fox or Davis have many friends in the PLP. Leadsom I think has reassessed her ambitions after 15 minutes of fame. Only Patel could be dangerous, I think. I could see her trying to mobilise the headbangers if we look to heading toward too soft a Brexit.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
What's that sound... is it a bird, is it a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing among Labour MPs in Northern Working Class seats.
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.
In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
I seem to recall Banks famously defecting during the Tory conference after the rise of UKIP as the main protest party in the polls so can his influence be overestimated?
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
I
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Yes. Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did. But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.
Oh, absolutely. The europhiles who denied us a vote time and again, on lesser issues, where we could have steered the EU to a better place, and avoided this sad rupture, are all to blame. I loathe them. Passionately.
The implosion of UKIP makes things worse for the remoaners in the Tory Party. Most of their voters will return to the Tories and will be essential to a future Tory Party. Secondly with UKIP defunct, Farage will be free to form UKIP 2.0 if there is serious backsliding - assuming he isnt by then a Tory Cabinet Minister.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
What's that sound...it is a bird, it is a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing in Northern Working Class Labour seats held by Pro-Remainers.
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.
I wouldn't bet on it just yet. Let's see what Banks, Nige and Wolfe come up with first. Could be AfB.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
Looking more like the party's over. Northern Labour MPs will breathe a sigh of relief.
Opportunity for the English Democrats?
More like an opportunity for the Tories. If Ukip implodes then will be interesting to see how much of its vote makes the final leap to the Blues, how much (if any) is willing to tolerate Jeremy Corbyn, and how many give up.
On Woolfe: The Brexit referendum marked the beginning of the end of UKIP, a party which has been running on Farage's charisma and Aaron Banks's money. Woolfe was supposed to continue this legacy - if he's out, then we can expect the UKIP organisation to degrade quickly into incoherency.
Farage wants to travel the world and spies a career as a right wing pundit on US cable. Banks seems to be giving up in favour of single issue campaigning.
UKIP's polling may be the last to go - there are few other vehicles for the prostate problems vote - but it's goodbye to any hopes of growing their presence in Westminster. Much of the vote will simply dissolve into non-voting. Ironically, I'd expect Carswell to hang on, even as his party label becomes redundant.
It does of course leave the Tory headbangers isolated, ideologically at least. The FT article cited above names the leaders of the hard Brexit gang as Johnson, Fox, Davis, Patel and Leadsom. But Johnson is clearly a fair weather friend, and neither Fox or Davis have many friends in the PLP. Leadsom I think has reassessed her ambitions after 15 minutes of fame. Only Patel could be dangerous, I think. I could see her trying to mobilise the headbangers if we look to heading toward too soft a Brexit.
You're forgetting that the les headbangers are now Soubry, Clarke etc.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
What's that sound...it is a bird, it is a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing in Northern Working Class Labour seats held by Pro-Remainers.
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.
I wouldn't bet on it just yet. Let's see what Banks, Nige and Wolfe come up with first. Could be AfB.
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
I
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Yes. Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did. But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.
Oh, absolutely. The europhiles who denied us a vote time and again, on lesser issues, where we could have steered the EU to a better place, and avoided this sad rupture, are all to blame. I loathe them. Passionately.
The implosion of UKIP makes things worse for the remoaners in the Tory Party. Most of their voters will return to the Tories and will be essential to a future Tory Party. Secondly with UKIP defunct, Farage will be free to form UKIP 2.0 if there is serious backsliding - assuming he isnt by then a Tory Cabinet Minister.
Farage, Tory Cabinet minister? You're having a laugh?
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
I
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Yes. Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did. But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.
Oh, absolutely. The europhiles who denied us a vote time and again, on lesser issues, where we could have steered the EU to a better place, and avoided this sad rupture, are all to blame. I loathe them. Passionately.
The implosion of UKIP makes things worse for the remoaners in the Tory Party. Most of their voters will return to the Tories and will be essential to a future Tory Party. Secondly with UKIP defunct, Farage will be free to form UKIP 2.0 if there is serious backsliding - assuming he isnt by then a Tory Cabinet Minister.
The day Farage becomes a Tory is the day I become a Lib Dem.
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
I
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Yes. Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did. But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.
Oh, absolutely. The europhiles who denied us a vote time and again, on lesser issues, where we could have steered the EU to a better place, and avoided this sad rupture, are all to blame. I loathe them. Passionately.
The implosion of UKIP makes things worse for the remoaners in the Tory Party. Most of their voters will return to the Tories and will be essential to a future Tory Party. Secondly with UKIP defunct, Farage will be free to form UKIP 2.0 if there is serious backsliding - assuming he isnt by then a Tory Cabinet Minister.
The day Farage becomes a Tory is the day I become a Lib Dem.
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
What is this "Soft BrExit" of which you speak ?
We have to at least entertain the possibility that Tusk was speaking the truth, that is Hard BrExit or No BrExit. The later of which is a guaranteed election loss.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
What's that sound...it is a bird, it is a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing in Northern Working Class Labour seats held by Pro-Remainers.
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.
I wouldn't bet on it just yet. Let's see what Banks, Nige and Wolfe come up with first. Could be AfB.
English Nationalist Party?
They will never use the word nationalist in any new party. I think the policies will be closer to AfD. Anti-immigration, anti-refugee, anti-globalisation and shamelessly patriotic in a way that older voters identify with.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
What's that sound...it is a bird, it is a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing in Northern Working Class Labour seats held by Pro-Remainers.
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.
I wouldn't bet on it just yet. Let's see what Banks, Nige and Wolfe come up with first. Could be AfB.
English Nationalist Party?
They will never use the word nationalist in any new party. I think the policies will be closer to AfD. Anti-immigration, anti-refugee, anti-globalisation and shamelessly patriotic in a way that older voters identify with.
Why not call themselves nationalist as that's what they'd be? Worked for the SNP (which has possibly detoxified the word).
@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
They've finally become embarrassed about their guest, who I suspect has long outstayed his welcome.
Given that the 'Embassy' is a two bedroomed apartment, and he's not left the building since he walked through the door in June 2012, I'd say his welcome was outstayed some time ago.
@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
They've finally become embarrassed about their guest, who I suspect has long outstayed his welcome.
Given that the 'Embassy' is a two bedroomed apartment, and he's not left the building since he walked through the door in June 2012, I'd say his welcome was outstayed some time ago.
He is like one of those friends you make on holiday, which you say if you are ever passing we would love to have you stay, thinking chances of them ever doing so is practically zero....then they appear at your front door and never want to leave....
@wikileaks: We can confirm Ecuador cut off Assange's internet access Saturday, 5pm GMT, shortly after publication of Clinton's Goldman Sachs speechs.
The Trump supporters on Reddit have been flipping out about this all day. If you believed them the US cut his internet, then overnight the UK police stormed the embassy and nabbed Assange, the police then handed Assange to the US government who flew him on a private jet to the US. All of this to stop Wikileaks from delivering a killer blow to Clinton's campaign. What evidence did they have for all of this? None.
So if it is Assange's hosts that cut the internet that is just perfect.
I seem to recall Banks famously defecting during the Tory conference after the rise of UKIP as the main protest party in the polls so can his influence be overestimated?
I read that as Banks famously defecating during the Tory conference!
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
What is this "Soft BrExit" of which you speak ?
We have to at least entertain the possibility that Tusk was speaking the truth, that is Hard BrExit or No BrExit. The later of which is a guaranteed election loss.
Canada are negotiating very significant trade access with no obligation on FoM.
Is that Hard, Soft, Remain?
The Spanish Foreign Minister was suggesting that option was open to us.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: #UKIP donor Arron Banks is considering withdrawing his funding from the party following the resignation of MEP Steven Woolfe
What's that sound...it is a bird, it is a plane, no its the sound of rejoicing in Northern Working Class Labour seats held by Pro-Remainers.
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.
I wouldn't bet on it just yet. Let's see what Banks, Nige and Wolfe come up with first. Could be AfB.
English Nationalist Party?
They will never use the word nationalist in any new party. I think the policies will be closer to AfD. Anti-immigration, anti-refugee, anti-globalisation and shamelessly patriotic in a way that older voters identify with.
Why not call themselves nationalist as that's what they'd be? Worked for the SNP (which has possibly detoxified the word).
That would be the Scottish National Party. I'm not aware of any Scottish Nationalist Party.
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
What is this "Soft BrExit" of which you speak ?
We have to at least entertain the possibility that Tusk was speaking the truth, that is Hard BrExit or No BrExit. The later of which is a guaranteed election loss.
Canada are negotiating very significant trade access with no obligation on FoM.
Is that Hard, Soft, Remain?
The Spanish Foreign Minister was suggesting that option was open to us.
Canada didn't just vote to leave the EU.
I never think it is a good idea to underestimate the small mindedness of our EU "friends" when their unrealistic fantasy dream is under threat.
In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
Congrats! I shall be raising a glass to your good news.
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
What is this "Soft BrExit" of which you speak ?
We have to at least entertain the possibility that Tusk was speaking the truth, that is Hard BrExit or No BrExit. The later of which is a guaranteed election loss.
Canada are negotiating very significant trade access with no obligation on FoM.
Is that Hard, Soft, Remain?
The Spanish Foreign Minister was suggesting that option was open to us.
Canada didn't just vote to leave the EU.
I never think it is a good idea to underestimate the small mindedness of our EU "friends" when their unrealistic fantasy dream is under threat.
Why don't we have a FTA with Canada to re-export our products to the EU through Canada.
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Like lots of the dodgy stuff relating to the Clintons e.g. pay for play allegations, I am sure there won't be a smoking gun. Somebody is always the unlucky fall guy and will get chucked under the bus if required.
Its the advantage of knowing the system inside out. It reminds me of House of Cards (US edition)...
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
What is this "Soft BrExit" of which you speak ?
We have to at least entertain the possibility that Tusk was speaking the truth, that is Hard BrExit or No BrExit. The later of which is a guaranteed election loss.
Canada are negotiating very significant trade access with no obligation on FoM.
Is that Hard, Soft, Remain?
The Spanish Foreign Minister was suggesting that option was open to us.
Canada didn't just vote to leave the EU.
I never think it is a good idea to underestimate the small mindedness of our EU "friends" when their unrealistic fantasy dream is under threat.
I do accept that they really want to protect their 'vision' and that any outcome must reflect that just as ours must reflect the referendum result.
Within those parameters though, sense must prevail with some workable compromise drummed up if only to see national politicians through into their own national elections.
Unless inflation goes absolutely crazy, I can't see it personally.
Most Brexit supporters are of an age where they can recall real inflation, while ultra-low interest rates of 0.25% have been terrible for the prudent.
It's also worth noting that outright owners who were heavily in favour of Leave and most likely to vote, account for a third of all households. They are safe from mortgage rate changes.
A great many also feel that house prices should fall for the benefit of their children and grandchildren who form generation rent.
People were told all the worst case scenarios - penury, world war 3, no one will talk to us or deal with us, back of the queue etc - and still voted Leave.
It's difficult to envisage all but the very softest leavers having a change of heart.
Yes, I think it's wishful thinking by Ganesh. However I do think it's possible, indeed probable, that public opinion will swing behind a Very Soft Brexit as the economic indicators go negative (and they will). There is already evidence of this in the ComRes poll showing voters emphasising trade.
But that could be me - a Soft Brexiteer - indulging my own wishful thinking!
I
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
Yes. Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did. But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.
Oh, absolutely. The europhiles who denied us a vote time and again, on lesser issues, where we could have steered the EU to a better place, and avoided this sad rupture, are all to blame. I loathe them. Passionately.
The implosion of UKIP makes things worse for the remoaners in the Tory Party. Most of their voters will return to the Tories and will be essential to a future Tory Party. Secondly with UKIP defunct, Farage will be free to form UKIP 2.0 if there is serious backsliding - assuming he isnt by then a Tory Cabinet Minister.
The day Farage becomes a Tory is the day I become a Lib Dem.
But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
They should ask her on the debate stage on Wednesday.
But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.
SeanF, I can imagine your reticence in answering after the hopes you have invested in UKIP - but do you think it is now a spent force in Westminster politics?
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Fat chance of any action before the election, or after. The DOJ is letting her off the hook because it would cause chaos to indict a candidate.
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Like lots of the dodgy stuff relating to the Clintons e.g. pay for play allegations, I am sure there won't be a smoking gun. Somebody is always the unlucky fall guy and will get chucked under the bus if required.
Its the advantage of knowing the system inside out. It reminds me of House of Cards (US edition)...
Her statement that she didn't understand the classification markings is an outright lie, if at the same time her number two at State is discussing them with the FBI.
I've said before that the RNC PAC would be mad not to run a spoof 'House of Cards' trailer from the final debate to Election Day.
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
They should ask her on the debate stage on Wednesday.
its someone apparently in the state dept, but very loosely linked to Clinton and no evidnece she was involved.
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Government departments and agencies are bartering all the time. Granted it doesn't look good but there's no evidence that Clinton herself made the request.
The Telegraph are running the headline "Donald Trump alleges 'large scale voter fraud', raising fears he could refuse to concede". When they hear that kind of idea I wonder what proportion of the US electorate decide that rather than abstaining or voting for one of Trump's opponents they will now vote for Trump, because it's safer. Surely some will take the view that a Trump loss may well lead to civil war whereas a Trump win probably won't? Trump's presentation contains a big dollop of "I'm a strong man who's going to make people safe".
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
It's carpet haggling 1.01...
Carpet haggling 1.02 is "don't let on what type of carpet you want - nor how much you are prepared to pay". A lesson that the Remoaners need to learn. They are as idiotic as Cameron was.
More likely they're well aware of 1.02, but are just desperately trying anything to delay the triggering of Article 50 and/or send us into negotiations as weak and hamstrung as possible in the vain hope that they can find a way to throw a spanner in the works of Brexit. All rather sad.
In other "ungovernable" news, Mrs. Price and I are delighted to announce the arrival of infant Price #3, Maia Elisabeth, born yesterday morning at 9.48am and weighing 8lb 14oz. Both mother and baby doing well and back at home!
On any normal following of the rules Farage deserves a peerage. Indeed he should have been made a Privy Counsellor sometime ago.
Agreed. Difficult to argue he hasn't made a large contribution to public life. Would be surprised if there isn't something for him in the new year honours.
But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.
SeanF, I can imagine your reticence in answering after the hopes you have invested in UKIP - but do you think it is now a spent force in Westminster politics?
In all likelihood, unless the government backtracks/falls over Brexit.
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Fat chance of any action before the election, or after. The DOJ is letting her off the hook because it would cause chaos to indict a candidate.
The DOJ is letting her off the hook because otherwise Trump would become President.
Not sure what would happen after the election has passed, though without 67 GOP senators to impeach her, Hillary will still stay in office until she loses the 2020 election as a lame duck.
But, just think how much fun it would be to read TSE's reaction, should Theresa May enoble Nigel Farage, and make him a minister.
About as fun as watching a cockroach ennoble an emerald cockroach wasp.
One of those "it would be hilarious if [nasty hard right person gains in an unlikely manner]" posts right wingers are so fond on.
It would be hilarious if Ed Miliband was discovered to be the lovechild of the Queen and therefore was next in line for the throne.
Bastards don't inherit the throne, alas for that counterfactual. Various attempts have been made over the years to overturn the convention but generally end up with said illegitmate person in a different part of the Tower of London from their head.
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Like lots of the dodgy stuff relating to the Clintons e.g. pay for play allegations, I am sure there won't be a smoking gun. Somebody is always the unlucky fall guy and will get chucked under the bus if required.
Its the advantage of knowing the system inside out. It reminds me of House of Cards (US edition)...
Her statement that she didn't understand the classification markings is an outright lie, if at the same time her number two at State is discussing them with the FBI.
I've said before that the RNC PAC would be mad not to run a spoof 'House of Cards' trailer from the final debate to Election Day.
If she truly *didn't* understand the classification markings, wouldn't that make her too stupid to be Secretary of State?
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Fat chance of any action before the election, or after. The DOJ is letting her off the hook because it would cause chaos to indict a candidate.
The DOJ is letting her off the hook because otherwise Trump would become President.
Not sure what would happen after the election has passed, though without 67 GOP senators to impeach her, Hillary will still stay in office until she loses the 2020 election as a lame duck.
Mixed metaphors there surely? She won't be a lame duck until 2024 and can't lose the election then when she is.
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
It's carpet haggling 1.01...
Carpet haggling 1.02 is "don't let on what type of carpet you want - nor how much you are prepared to pay". A lesson that the Remoaners need to learn. They are as idiotic as Cameron was.
More likely they're well aware of 1.02, but are just desperately trying anything to delay the triggering of Article 50 and/or send us into negotiations as weak and hamstrung as possible in the vain hope that they can find a way to throw a spanner in the works of Brexit. All rather sad.
The problem is that (a) we decided to buy the Carpet publiclly by referendum before deciding what 1.01 and 1.02 are ( b) We still haven't decided what 1.01 and 1.02 are and in a democracy can't really be kept secret from the Carpet Seller. ( c) Once A50 is invoked we have to buy a carpet at the end of two years. We can't walk away. Only the quality of the carpet is at stake. ( d ) 48% of hagglers didn't want to buy the Carpet in the first place. ( e) of the 52% that did want floor covering there were huge disagreement what sort. ( f ) The Carpet Seller is unconventional. They don't want repeat trade. They either want you not to enter the shop in the first place or buy a **** carpet you'll hate. They don't want success.
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
It's carpet haggling 1.01...
Carpet haggling 1.02 is "don't let on what type of carpet you want - nor how much you are prepared to pay". A lesson that the Remoaners need to learn. They are as idiotic as Cameron was.
More likely they're well aware of 1.02, but are just desperately trying anything to delay the triggering of Article 50 and/or send us into negotiations as weak and hamstrung as possible in the vain hope that they can find a way to throw a spanner in the works of Brexit. All rather sad.
Hard to have any respect for those playing this game. Be interesting to see after Article 50 is triggered, how many will be seeking to Rejoin the EU. Complete with the Euro.
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Like lots of the dodgy stuff relating to the Clintons e.g. pay for play allegations, I am sure there won't be a smoking gun. Somebody is always the unlucky fall guy and will get chucked under the bus if required.
Its the advantage of knowing the system inside out. It reminds me of House of Cards (US edition)...
Her statement that she didn't understand the classification markings is an outright lie, if at the same time her number two at State is discussing them with the FBI.
I've said before that the RNC PAC would be mad not to run a spoof 'House of Cards' trailer from the final debate to Election Day.
If she truly *didn't* understand the classification markings, wouldn't that make her too stupid to Secretary of State?
In the eyes of most people, yes, but Mrs Slopey Shoulders will find some weasel words to get around it, probably involving Russian hackers and trying to shoot the messenger.
What would affect her is evidence of a straight up lie to the emails enquiry, alas I don't think we've got that yet.
Agreed. When haggling, you have to be willing to walk away with no deal.
Which is where Cameron so utterly failed.
It's carpet haggling 1.01...
Carpet haggling 1.02 is "don't let on what type of carpet you want - nor how much you are prepared to pay". A lesson that the Remoaners need to learn. They are as idiotic as Cameron was.
More likely they're well aware of 1.02, but are just desperately trying anything to delay the triggering of Article 50 and/or send us into negotiations as weak and hamstrung as possible in the vain hope that they can find a way to throw a spanner in the works of Brexit. All rather sad.
The problem is that (a) we decided to buy the Carpet publiclly by referendum before deciding what 1.01 and 1.02 are ( b) We still haven't decided what 1.01 and 1.02 are and in a democracy can't really be kept secret from the Carpet Seller. ( c) Once A50 is invoked we have to buy a carpet at the end of two years. We can't walk away. Only the quality of the carpet is at stake. ( d ) 48% of hagglers didn't want to buy the Carpet in the first place. ( e) of the 52% that did want floor covering there were huge disagreement what sort. ( f ) The Carpet Seller is unconventional. They don't want repeat trade. They either want you not to enter the shop in the first place or buy a **** carpet you'll hate. They don't want success.
We have to buy a carpet but there's no guarantee which carpet we will buy.
Ooh. Do we have an actual serious story here, after all the false starts? If she did indeed try and bribe the FBI then she's surely toast, but it's not going to be that simple. It never is with Hillary.
Fat chance of any action before the election, or after. The DOJ is letting her off the hook because it would cause chaos to indict a candidate.
The DOJ is letting her off the hook because otherwise Trump would become President.
Not sure what would happen after the election has passed, though without 67 GOP senators to impeach her, Hillary will still stay in office until she loses the 2020 election as a lame duck.
Mixed metaphors there surely? She won't be a lame duck until 2024 and can't lose the election then when she is.
Hillary won't win re-election, Trump would be too old to run in 2020.
Comments
In fact, I'd have expected a significant proportion of the 48% to have favoured soft Brexit anyway - but they voted Remain because they feared hard Brexit and preferred Remain to Hard Brexit.
Personally, I'm .a soft Brexiter - but I take the view that you have to be prepared to accept hard Brexit because otherwise there will be no alternative to no Brexit at all. And in my view hard Brexit is better than hard Remain.
Having said that, he did at least offer a referendum - which was more than any of his predecessors did.
But if at any point in the past the British had been offered the chance of less Europe, we wouldn't have had to be put i the ridiculous position of having to say we want no Europe at all. The failure is therefore not just Cameron's but also Brown's, Blair's and Major's.
Carpet haggling 1.02 is "don't let on what type of carpet you want - nor how much you are prepared to pay". A lesson that the Remoaners need to learn. They are as idiotic as Cameron was.
If a particular region has particular concerns, as for instance Northern Ireland and Scotland do, then it is only appropriate that those concerns are dealt with. Similarly it is for the benefit of the nation that we have MPs representing all corners of our nation whether it be Metropolitans, rural or suburban.
FPTP does not guarantee a parties survival. Don't just ask the Lib Dems or Scottish Labour, federally you could ask the 1993 Tories in Canada.
Opportunity for the English Democrats?
Farage wants to travel the world and spies a career as a right wing pundit on US cable. Banks seems to be giving up in favour of single issue campaigning.
UKIP's polling may be the last to go - there are few other vehicles for the prostate problems vote - but it's goodbye to any hopes of growing their presence in Westminster. Much of the vote will simply dissolve into non-voting. Ironically, I'd expect Carswell to hang on, even as his party label becomes redundant.
It does of course leave the Tory headbangers isolated, ideologically at least. The FT article cited above names the leaders of the hard Brexit gang as Johnson, Fox, Davis, Patel and Leadsom. But Johnson is clearly a fair weather friend, and neither Fox or Davis have many friends in the PLP. Leadsom I think has reassessed her ambitions after 15 minutes of fame. Only Patel could be dangerous, I think.
I could see her trying to mobilise the headbangers if we look to heading toward too soft a Brexit.
Despite Corbyn been shit, the folks in places like Stoke are not going to be voting Tory, so the donkey in red rosette gets in again.
I seem to recall Banks famously defecting during the Tory conference after the rise of UKIP as the main protest party in the polls so can his influence be overestimated?
Eng Dems are very fringe and likely to remain so.
The others you mention are in Govt.
We have to at least entertain the possibility that Tusk was speaking the truth, that is Hard BrExit or No BrExit. The later of which is a guaranteed election loss.
So if it is Assange's hosts that cut the internet that is just perfect.
Is that Hard, Soft, Remain?
The Spanish Foreign Minister was suggesting that option was open to us.
https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/788086335852666880
I never think it is a good idea to underestimate the small mindedness of our EU "friends" when their unrealistic fantasy dream is under threat.
Its the advantage of knowing the system inside out. It reminds me of House of Cards (US edition)...
Within those parameters though, sense must prevail with some workable compromise drummed up if only to see national politicians through into their own national elections.
He will be roaming Sheffield Hallam pleading people to vote Nick Clegg just like last time.
I've said before that the RNC PAC would be mad not to run a spoof 'House of Cards' trailer from the final debate to Election Day.
so... SNOOOZZEEE
Odds of the match finishing with 22 men on the field are rapidly diminishing though.
It would be hilarious if Ed Miliband was discovered to be the lovechild of the Queen and therefore was next in line for the throne.
Not sure what would happen after the election has passed, though without 67 GOP senators to impeach her, Hillary will still stay in office until she loses the 2020 election as a lame duck.
I'm thinking not so many...
What would affect her is evidence of a straight up lie to the emails enquiry, alas I don't think we've got that yet.