politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for another CON by-election defence if the Heathrow
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for another CON by-election defence if the Heathrow expansion is given the go-ahead
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First!0
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Second!0
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MULTI-MILLIONAIRE Tory MP
Not sure The Sun are Fans.....
It will be an interesting contest - and if the Tories do lose, no doubt grist to the mill of the 'grammar school grocer's Vicar's daughter not up to it' brigade......what we need is a nice posh public schoolboy.....0 -
"why if leaving the EU is such a bad thing for Scotland, how come leaving the UK isn't?". Salmond's answer betrays the cognitive dissonance at the heart the SNP's current position: "I don't accept Scotland becoming independent means needing to put trade barriers between Scotland and England [...] England is Scotland's first export market."
There's a mind-boggling obvious contradiction here: if Scotland needs to leave a post-Brexit UK and join the EU to defend its EU trade, it's because there's a belief that EU/UK trade barriers will exist. To then dismiss the inevitable corollary (that Scotland in the EU would then face trade barriers with England) is just plain daft.
https://chokkablog.blogspot.co.id/2016/10/salmond-spins-again_16.html0 -
OGH Writes: What we don’t know is whether Zac himself would fight the seat as an independent.
In The Sun article:
He would stand as an independent candidate after triggering a by-election in his constituency if Heathrow gets the go-ahead.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1986001/tory-mp-zac-goldsmith-vows-to-resign-if-theresa-may-gives-green-light-to-a-third-runway-at-heathrow/0 -
At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, they need to JFDI when it comes to the new runways. Two of them. They've put the decision off for so long that it's now urgent. Wait for the first foggy day with 100 cancelled flights to see how far over capacity LHR is running and how much damage some minor bad weather can do to the economy.
There's something like three times as many flights to China from Amsterdam as there are from Heathrow, the middle eastern hubs are cleaning up the Asian market and meanwhile the government are about to announce their decision here - of the start of a process that contains a bill to pass Parliament, followed by a public enquiry, followed by the planning process, followed a decade or more from now by actually seeing a spade in the ground. It's killing the economy of the UK and London more than anything else right now, just get on and start building!!!0 -
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/15/trump-campaign-declares-war-ohio-gop-chairman/92153228/
Trump campaign declares war on Ohio GOP chairman0 -
Agree entirely. And start looking for the best option for an additional third runway ex-LHR/LGW - good chance King William will be on the thrown by the time they build it, so best crack on.....Sandpit said:At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, they need to JFDI when it comes to the new runways. Two of them. They've put the decision off for so long that it's now urgent. Wait for the first foggy day with 100 cancelled flights to see how far over capacity LHR is running and how much damage some minor bad weather can do to the economy.
There's something like three times as many flights to China from Amsterdam as there are from Heathrow, the middle eastern hubs are cleaning up the Asian market and meanwhile the government are about to announce their decision here - of the start of a process that contains a bill to pass Parliament, followed by a public enquiry, followed by the planning process, followed a decade or more from now by actually seeing a spade in the ground. It's killing the economy of the UK and London more than anything else right now, just get on and start building!!!0 -
Ninth
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Would Zac's resignation let Justine Greening off the hook? Worth considering if you've backed her to be first minister out.0
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I know the area fairly well, and my instinct, unsupported by any analysis, is that the by-election would be single-issue, and Zac would prevail if he ran as an independent. If he did not run, it would be very difficult to predict - feeling in West London over R3 runs very high, as I remember from the last time the government tried to build one.
I'm not even sure that R3 will ever get built - we've been here before and it didn't. Personally, I'd support another runway at Gatwick and one at Stansted, as there would be less political opposition or environment damage. Airport capacity in London should be abundant, as it is in most other great cities around the world.0 -
National - Franklin Pierce/Boston Globe - Sample 1,103 - 9-13 Oct
Clinton 46 .. Trump 41
http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2016/10/16/FPU-BH-Memo-101616.pdf0 -
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?Fishing said:I know the area fairly well, and my instinct, unsupported by any analysis, is that the by-election would be single-issue, and Zac would prevail if he ran as an independent. If he did not run, it would be very difficult to predict - feeling in West London over R3 runs very high, as I remember from the last time the government tried to build one.
I'm not even sure that R3 will ever get built - we've been here before and it didn't. Personally, I'd support another runway at Gatwick and one at Stansted, as there would be less political opposition or environment damage. Airport capacity in London should be abundant, as it is in most other great cities around the world.0 -
What we don't know is what the (official) Tories would do.....?CarlottaVance said:OGH Writes: What we don’t know is whether Zac himself would fight the seat as an independent.
In The Sun article:
He would stand as an independent candidate after triggering a by-election in his constituency if Heathrow gets the go-ahead.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1986001/tory-mp-zac-goldsmith-vows-to-resign-if-theresa-may-gives-green-light-to-a-third-runway-at-heathrow/0 -
In an excellent article Jamelle Bouie of "Slate" looks at how the GOP lost the black vote in the 60's, the latino vote in the past ten years and thus have handed the Democrats potentially decisive bloc votes in recent elections :
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/trump_and_the_gop_are_alienating_latinos_the_way_they_once_alienated_black.html0 -
This raven says. To the Tower with them. Bremaitors all.
"I am trying to delay Brexit, admits Clegg: Anger as ex-deputy PM leads Bremoaner plot to snub voters' wishes... and says keeping Britain shackled to the EU for longer would be a 'good thing'"
Nick Clegg said pro-EU MPs are deliberately trying to delay Brexit
Remainers are demanding to know how ministers plan to exit the EU
Group will try to force vote aimed at rejecting negotiating stance
Mr Clegg has teamed up with former Labour leader Ed Miliband"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3842190/Nick-Clegg-says-s-trying-delay-Brexit.html
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Almost certainly not, for three reasons. Northolt is far too close to Heathrow for there to be much of an increase in traffic flows without significantly disrupting LHR's traffic; the runway is too short to take big jets; and surface access is inadequate. That's why the Dft and the CAA have repeatedly rejected that option.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?0 -
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
http://news.sky.com/story/nick-clegg-chocolate-cheese-and-wine-to-be-hit-by-hard-brexit-10620761
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....0 -
And it is closer to residential west London, when the whole point of the concern about Heathrow is about more flights over an urban area. The more clever Heathrow proposals shift the runways out toward the west, away from town.Fishing said:
Almost certainly not, for three reasons. Northolt is far too close to Heathrow for there to be much of an increase in traffic flows without significantly disrupting LHR's traffic; the runway is too short to take big jets; and surface access is inadequate. That's why the Dft and the CAA have repeatedly rejected that option.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?0 -
Vaughn Hillyard of "NBC News" looks at Trump struggling to keep Arizona in his column :
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-risk-losing-arizona-state-officials-say-n6672810 -
Those are the ones going over an M4 tunnel?Fishing said:
Absolutely.IanB2 said:And it is closer to residential west London, when the whole point of the concern about Heathrow is about more flights over an urban area. The more clever Heathrow proposals shift the runways out toward the west, away from town.
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And nearer Maidenhead......IanB2 said:
The more clever Heathrow proposals shift the runways out toward the west, away from town.Fishing said:
Almost certainly not, for three reasons. Northolt is far too close to Heathrow for there to be much of an increase in traffic flows without significantly disrupting LHR's traffic; the runway is too short to take big jets; and surface access is inadequate. That's why the Dft and the CAA have repeatedly rejected that option.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?0 -
Helpfully offset slightly to the North. Even being a few miles north/south of the runway makes the world of difference.CarlottaVance said:
And nearer Maidenhead......IanB2 said:
The more clever Heathrow proposals shift the runways out toward the west, away from town.Fishing said:
Almost certainly not, for three reasons. Northolt is far too close to Heathrow for there to be much of an increase in traffic flows without significantly disrupting LHR's traffic; the runway is too short to take big jets; and surface access is inadequate. That's why the Dft and the CAA have repeatedly rejected that option.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?0 -
Yes, out by the Staines reservoir.RobD said:
The plan was set out and endorsed by the Economist, although it was produced by some think tank. By shifting the runways west, whilst leaving the airport terminals and infrastructure where they are, you significantly increase the height of aircraft over west London, and hence dramatically reduce both noise and pollution.
As I recall from the plan, one of the runways extended out over the motorway itself. Basically as you drove round the M25 you would go into a tunnel with the aircraft landing on top of you. There is a similar arrangement at a Belgian airport - Kortyk as I recall (spelling may not be right), which I have landed a light aircraft at.0 -
Britain could certainly unilaterally open its markets to imports from countries that charged tariffs on British exports. But does anyone think it would?CarlottaVance said:Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
http://news.sky.com/story/nick-clegg-chocolate-cheese-and-wine-to-be-hit-by-hard-brexit-10620761
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....0 -
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The Economist: a minority of leavers are changing their minds, or bailing out:
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21708679-minority-leavers-have-changed-their-minds-others-are-bailing-out-after-brexit-bregret0 -
And Windsor Castle, which was spotted as a perhaps more significant issue.CarlottaVance said:
And nearer Maidenhead......IanB2 said:
The more clever Heathrow proposals shift the runways out toward the west, away from town.Fishing said:
Almost certainly not, for three reasons. Northolt is far too close to Heathrow for there to be much of an increase in traffic flows without significantly disrupting LHR's traffic; the runway is too short to take big jets; and surface access is inadequate. That's why the Dft and the CAA have repeatedly rejected that option.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?0 -
There are more sources of cheese, wine & chocolate than the EU.....edmundintokyo said:
Britain could certainly unilaterally open its markets to imports from countries that charged tariffs on British exports. But does anyone think it would?CarlottaVance said:Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
http://news.sky.com/story/nick-clegg-chocolate-cheese-and-wine-to-be-hit-by-hard-brexit-10620761
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....0 -
Is it right that the expansion of LHR will cost the Govt £30 billion? Or will it be tbe private company that owns which forks out?IanB2 said:
Tbis taxpayer doesn't care much for paying for it.0 -
IanB2 said:
The Economist: a minority of leavers are changing their minds, or bailing out:
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21708679-minority-leavers-have-changed-their-minds-others-are-bailing-out-after-brexit-bregret
the authors point out that voters for the winning side feel some regret after most elections0 -
As a tourist observed : "why did they build a castle so close to a busy airport?"IanB2 said:
And Windsor Castle, which was spotted as a perhaps more significant issue.CarlottaVance said:
And nearer Maidenhead......IanB2 said:
The more clever Heathrow proposals shift the runways out toward the west, away from town.Fishing said:
Almost certainly not, for three reasons. Northolt is far too close to Heathrow for there to be much of an increase in traffic flows without significantly disrupting LHR's traffic; the runway is too short to take big jets; and surface access is inadequate. That's why the Dft and the CAA have repeatedly rejected that option.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?0 -
Coming into land at Heathrow once pilot comes on 'those sitting on the left have a great view of Windsor Castle'IanB2 said:
And Windsor Castle, which was spotted as a perhaps more significant issue.CarlottaVance said:
And nearer Maidenhead......IanB2 said:
The more clever Heathrow proposals shift the runways out toward the west, away from town.Fishing said:
Almost certainly not, for three reasons. Northolt is far too close to Heathrow for there to be much of an increase in traffic flows without significantly disrupting LHR's traffic; the runway is too short to take big jets; and surface access is inadequate. That's why the Dft and the CAA have repeatedly rejected that option.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?
American passenger in row in front 'Such a pity they built it so close to the airport'......(in fairness I think she recognised her foolishness)0 -
That's a very interesting point. Heathrow used to say that the new runway could be paid for through borrowing, financed by future airline and retail fees, as Terminal 5 and Terminal 2 were funded. But if you look at Heathrow's publicity, it has changed recently from "will not require public subsidy" to use far more weasel words.foxinsoxuk said:
Tbis taxpayer doesn't care much for paying for it.
Also, IAG, by far Heathrow's largest customer, has said it will not pay the resulting high charges, moving flights to Madrid or Dublin instead.0 -
The government needs to get on with it. It was shameful that this decision was not made by the last labour government. Having had 6 years since the failure to get building is a blot on Cameron's Premiership. We simply cannot waste any more time. And if the price is Zac becoming even more semi detached than he is right now it is a price that the government needs to pay.0
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Lol (although the castle would be on the right hand side)CarlottaVance said:
Coming into land at Heathrow once pilot comes on 'those sitting on the left have a great view of Windsor Castle'IanB2 said:
And Windsor Castle, which was spotted as a perhaps more significant issue.CarlottaVance said:
And nearer Maidenhead......IanB2 said:
The more clever Heathrow proposals shift the runways out toward the west, away from town.Fishing said:
Almost certainly not, for three reasons. Northolt is far too close to Heathrow for there to be much of an increase in traffic flows without significantly disrupting LHR's traffic; the runway is too short to take big jets; and surface access is inadequate. That's why the Dft and the CAA have repeatedly rejected that option.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?
American passenger in row in front 'Such a pity they built it so close to the airport'......(in fairness I think she recognised her foolishness)0 -
This is a weird thing to poll when you could just poll all the voters on the original question again. I think if you do this you still get a clear majority for Leave.IanB2 said:The Economist: a minority of leavers are changing their minds, or bailing out:
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21708679-minority-leavers-have-changed-their-minds-others-are-bailing-out-after-brexit-bregret0 -
On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?0
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Indeed. That would be a stupid policy to put to local voters. But if the natural answer is to nominate an anti-runway candidate for the Conservatives, the natural answer would be to nominate Zac.IanB2 said:On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?
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Wikileaks are claiming Assange has had internet link cut deliberately.
Along with the dead man keys from earlier - this is great guerilla PR from them, and CNN stupidly said it was illegal to read the Wikileaks at all.0 -
Good point. So they put up a pro-runway candidate, who then loses. And they go ahead with the runway.IanB2 said:On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?
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Amazing to think it's been there for over 900 years.CarlottaVance said:
Coming into land at Heathrow once pilot comes on 'those sitting on the left have a great view of Windsor Castle'IanB2 said:
And Windsor Castle, which was spotted as a perhaps more significant issue.CarlottaVance said:
And nearer Maidenhead......IanB2 said:
The more clever Heathrow proposals shift the runways out toward the west, away from town.Fishing said:
Almost certainly not, for three reasons. Northolt is far too close to Heathrow for there to be much of an increase in traffic flows without significantly disrupting LHR's traffic; the runway is too short to take big jets; and surface access is inadequate. That's why the Dft and the CAA have repeatedly rejected that option.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?
American passenger in row in front 'Such a pity they built it so close to the airport'......(in fairness I think she recognised her foolishness)0 -
"The British Election Study, a long-running panel survey, asked voters in July whether they regretted their choice. Only 1% of Remainers did; another 1% of them were unsure. Among Leavers, 6% wished they had not voted the way they did, and a further 4% were in two minds. That may not be much—and the authors point out that voters for the winning side feel some regret after most elections—but it suggests that the slim pro-Brexit majority had evaporated within a month of the referendum. Remorse was strongest among Leavers who didn’t expect their side to win, adding some weight to the idea that many were motivated by frustration with the establishment rather than by Euroscepticism."edmundintokyo said:
This is a weird thing to poll when you could just poll all the voters on the original question again. I think if you do this you still get a clear majority for Leave.IanB2 said:The Economist: a minority of leavers are changing their minds, or bailing out:
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21708679-minority-leavers-have-changed-their-minds-others-are-bailing-out-after-brexit-bregret0 -
I thought the polls were suggesting that there hadn't been any remorse for the decision made?logical_song said:
"The British Election Study, a long-running panel survey, asked voters in July whether they regretted their choice. Only 1% of Remainers did; another 1% of them were unsure. Among Leavers, 6% wished they had not voted the way they did, and a further 4% were in two minds. That may not be much—and the authors point out that voters for the winning side feel some regret after most elections—but it suggests that the slim pro-Brexit majority had evaporated within a month of the referendum. Remorse was strongest among Leavers who didn’t expect their side to win, adding some weight to the idea that many were motivated by frustration with the establishment rather than by Euroscepticism."edmundintokyo said:
This is a weird thing to poll when you could just poll all the voters on the original question again. I think if you do this you still get a clear majority for Leave.IanB2 said:The Economist: a minority of leavers are changing their minds, or bailing out:
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21708679-minority-leavers-have-changed-their-minds-others-are-bailing-out-after-brexit-bregret0 -
They let the local party pick a candidate. Since the runway is unpopular, that candidate will presumably be anti-runway. One of the three anti-runway candidates wins the by-election. The government builds the runway.IanB2 said:On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?
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Just read TSE latest bitter bile below. I hope he gets over this soon, for everyone's sake.0
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And, more to the point, the Tories would be in a bind - not standing would make them look cowardly and ridiculous, standing would probably see them come in third, as Mike says. And possibly hand the seat to the LibDems, depending on how Zak fares in the campaign.logical_song said:
Good point. So they put up a pro-runway candidate, who then loses. And they go ahead with the runway.IanB2 said:On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?
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logical_song said:
"The British Election Study, a long-running panel survey, asked voters in July whether they regretted their choice. Only 1% of Remainers did; another 1% of them were unsure. Among Leavers, 6% wished they had not voted the way they did, and a further 4% were in two minds. That may not be much—and the authors point out that voters for the winning side feel some regret after most elections—but it suggests that the slim pro-Brexit majority had evaporated within a month of the referendum. Remorse was strongest among Leavers who didn’t expect their side to win, adding some weight to the idea that many were motivated by frustration with the establishment rather than by Euroscepticism."edmundintokyo said:
This is a weird thing to poll when you could just poll all the voters on the original question again. I think if you do this you still get a clear majority for Leave.IanB2 said:The Economist: a minority of leavers are changing their minds, or bailing out:
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21708679-minority-leavers-have-changed-their-minds-others-are-bailing-out-after-brexit-bregret
This is why leave needed to bank their victory by trigerring art 50 on June 24.
Longer it drifts,the more problems emerge
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The original R3 proposal wasn't full length. I presume the idea was that all the regional flights would have used it with the existing two runways reserved for long haul, but it always sounded like a silly proposal.Fishing said:I know the area fairly well, and my instinct, unsupported by any analysis, is that the by-election would be single-issue, and Zac would prevail if he ran as an independent. If he did not run, it would be very difficult to predict - feeling in West London over R3 runs very high, as I remember from the last time the government tried to build one.
I'm not even sure that R3 will ever get built - we've been here before and it didn't. Personally, I'd support another runway at Gatwick and one at Stansted, as there would be less political opposition or environment damage. Airport capacity in London should be abundant, as it is in most other great cities around the world.0 -
Right but it's still a weird way to poll it. There's a simple, neutral question on that was on the ballot paper. Why not ask that?logical_song said:
"The British Election Study, a long-running panel survey, asked voters in July whether they regretted their choice. Only 1% of Remainers did; another 1% of them were unsure. Among Leavers, 6% wished they had not voted the way they did, and a further 4% were in two minds. That may not be much—and the authors point out that voters for the winning side feel some regret after most elections—but it suggests that the slim pro-Brexit majority had evaporated within a month of the referendum. Remorse was strongest among Leavers who didn’t expect their side to win, adding some weight to the idea that many were motivated by frustration with the establishment rather than by Euroscepticism."edmundintokyo said:
This is a weird thing to poll when you could just poll all the voters on the original question again. I think if you do this you still get a clear majority for Leave.IanB2 said:The Economist: a minority of leavers are changing their minds, or bailing out:
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21708679-minority-leavers-have-changed-their-minds-others-are-bailing-out-after-brexit-bregret
I think the "regret" wording kind-of nudges towards a "yes", because it encourages you to think of the downsides and/or the claims that turned out to be lies.0 -
Tories aren't likely to be queuing to get the chance to become the next Frank Dobson? Unless the Tories are clever enough to promise them the nomination in 2020 as well.edmundintokyo said:
They let the local party pick a candidate. Since the runway is unpopular, that candidate will presumably be anti-runway. One of the three anti-runway candidates wins the by-election. The government builds the runway.IanB2 said:On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?
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Matt Ridley is on point today
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/weve-become-a-nation-paralysed-by-protest-8w7n3n2f50 -
Surely that'd be a given?IanB2 said:
Tories aren't likely to be queuing to get the chance to become the next Frank Dobson? Unless the Tories are clever enough to promise them the nomination in 2020 as well.edmundintokyo said:
They let the local party pick a candidate. Since the runway is unpopular, that candidate will presumably be anti-runway. One of the three anti-runway candidates wins the by-election. The government builds the runway.IanB2 said:On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?
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Tbf, she may well have been making a joke -- it is an old chestnut along the lines of it was bad luck for Jesus having his birthday fall on Christmas Day.CarlottaVance said:
Coming into land at Heathrow once pilot comes on 'those sitting on the left have a great view of Windsor Castle'IanB2 said:
And Windsor Castle, which was spotted as a perhaps more significant issue.CarlottaVance said:
And nearer Maidenhead......IanB2 said:
The more clever Heathrow proposals shift the runways out toward the west, away from town.Fishing said:
Almost certainly not, for three reasons. Northolt is far too close to Heathrow for there to be much of an increase in traffic flows without significantly disrupting LHR's traffic; the runway is too short to take big jets; and surface access is inadequate. That's why the Dft and the CAA have repeatedly rejected that option.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?
American passenger in row in front 'Such a pity they built it so close to the airport'......(in fairness I think she recognised her foolishness)0 -
I still rather liked the idea of a brand new estuary airport. Places like Hong Kong did it with style. Heathrow's a bit of a mess.0
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They won't be short of candidates. It's a potentially winnable race, and if you win it you're just as likely to be reselected for 2020 as any other incumbent MP, boundary changes permitting.IanB2 said:
Tories aren't likely to be queuing to get the chance to become the next Frank Dobson? Unless the Tories are clever enough to promise them the nomination in 2020 as well.edmundintokyo said:
They let the local party pick a candidate. Since the runway is unpopular, that candidate will presumably be anti-runway. One of the three anti-runway candidates wins the by-election. The government builds the runway.IanB2 said:On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?
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Sooner or later a block of these timber framed flats is going to go up in smoke when its full of people asleep rather than half built:
http://dailym.ai/2e72SJn0 -
Trouble is it is even further from everyone else than Heathrow (apart from those in East London)JennyFreeman said:I still rather liked the idea of a brand new estuary airport. Places like Hong Kong did it with style. Heathrow's a bit of a mess.
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[OT -- ADMIN] the blog spam filter has failed -- see ozil80
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Yes you are probably right. But it would still be a gamble on Zak having got fed up as an independent by then, and the LibDems not winning the seat back. And having the conservatives actually digging the runway at the time. LibDem in 2020 would be my prediction.RobD said:
Surely that'd be a given?IanB2 said:
Tories aren't likely to be queuing to get the chance to become the next Frank Dobson? Unless the Tories are clever enough to promise them the nomination in 2020 as well.edmundintokyo said:
They let the local party pick a candidate. Since the runway is unpopular, that candidate will presumably be anti-runway. One of the three anti-runway candidates wins the by-election. The government builds the runway.IanB2 said:On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?
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No, but at 6,600 feet it was rather longer than the existing Northolt runway, which is 5,500 feet - that can only take the very smallest passenger jets. And the problem with using it for regional flights would be that it would be so difficult for passengers to connect to long-haul flights at Heathrow, which is why most regional passengers want to go through Heathrow in the first place.ThreeQuidder said:
The original R3 proposal wasn't full length. I presume the idea was that all the regional flights would have used it with the existing two runways reserved for long haul, but it always sounded like a silly proposal.0 -
New flats are being built out of timber? That does seem surprising...Paul_Bedfordshire said:Sooner or later a block of these timber framed flats is going to go up in smoke when its full of people asleep rather than half built:
http://dailym.ai/2e72SJn0 -
Except that the idea was dumb from the beginning - it existed solely to allow Boris to pretend both to oppose Heathrow and be pro-business by supporting more runways.JennyFreeman said:I still rather liked the idea of a brand new estuary airport. Places like Hong Kong did it with style. Heathrow's a bit of a mess.
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Coming into land it would always be on the left hand side - Windsor Castle is north of the northerly runway centreline....taking off, it would be to your right....IanB2 said:
Lol (although the castle would be on the right hand side)CarlottaVance said:
Coming into land at Heathrow once pilot comes on 'those sitting on the left have a great view of Windsor Castle'IanB2 said:
And Windsor Castle, which was spotted as a perhaps more significant issue.CarlottaVance said:
And nearer Maidenhead......IanB2 said:
The more clever Heathrow proposals shift the runways out toward the west, away from town.Fishing said:
Almost certainly not, for three reasons. Northolt is far too close to Heathrow for there to be much of an increase in traffic flows without significantly disrupting LHR's traffic; the runway is too short to take big jets; and surface access is inadequate. That's why the Dft and the CAA have repeatedly rejected that option.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is occasionally suggested that Heathrow could swallow RAF Northolt. Would that help?
American passenger in row in front 'Such a pity they built it so close to the airport'......(in fairness I think she recognised her foolishness)0 -
I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!0 -
... and that its cost is simply frightening ...RobD said:
Trouble is it is even further from everyone else than Heathrow (apart from those in East London)JennyFreeman said:I still rather liked the idea of a brand new estuary airport. Places like Hong Kong did it with style. Heathrow's a bit of a mess.
East Londoners don't fly much - the demand is in the centre, west and south-west. See the Competition Commission's 2008 Provisional Findings on its Airports Inquiry.
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One problem with Boris Island is that it (or rather the death of Heathrow) will kill off the M4 corridor of American technology companies (although to be fair, that is not what it once was).JennyFreeman said:I still rather liked the idea of a brand new estuary airport. Places like Hong Kong did it with style. Heathrow's a bit of a mess.
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One problem with Boris Island is that it (or rather the death of Heathrow) will kill off the M4 corridor of American technology companies (although to be fair, that is not what it once was).JennyFreeman said:I still rather liked the idea of a brand new estuary airport. Places like Hong Kong did it with style. Heathrow's a bit of a mess.
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Northolt was at best a stop-gap solution, but would have needed a runway extension and an airside tunnel between the two airports to work properly - so wouldn't have saved much cash.Fishing said:
No, but at 6,600 feet it was rather longer than the existing Northolt runway, which is 5,500 feet - that can only take the very smallest passenger jets. And the problem with using it for regional flights would be that it would be so difficult for passengers to connect to long-haul flights at Heathrow, which is why most regional passengers want to go through Heathrow in the first place.ThreeQuidder said:
The original R3 proposal wasn't full length. I presume the idea was that all the regional flights would have used it with the existing two runways reserved for long haul, but it always sounded like a silly proposal.0 -
I wasn't disagreeing, however I think that it was just a better story that some Leavers were regretting their decision rather than a new poll shows that Remain would now win.edmundintokyo said:
Right but it's still a weird way to poll it. There's a simple, neutral question on that was on the ballot paper. Why not ask that?logical_song said:
"The British Election Study, a long-running panel survey, asked voters in July whether they regretted their choice. Only 1% of Remainers did; another 1% of them were unsure. Among Leavers, 6% wished they had not voted the way they did, and a further 4% were in two minds. That may not be much—and the authors point out that voters for the winning side feel some regret after most elections—but it suggests that the slim pro-Brexit majority had evaporated within a month of the referendum. Remorse was strongest among Leavers who didn’t expect their side to win, adding some weight to the idea that many were motivated by frustration with the establishment rather than by Euroscepticism."edmundintokyo said:
This is a weird thing to poll when you could just poll all the voters on the original question again. I think if you do this you still get a clear majority for Leave.IanB2 said:The Economist: a minority of leavers are changing their minds, or bailing out:
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21708679-minority-leavers-have-changed-their-minds-others-are-bailing-out-after-brexit-bregret
I think the "regret" wording kind-of nudges towards a "yes", because it encourages you to think of the downsides and/or the claims that turned out to be lies.
I've seen polling elsewhere that shows Remainers sticking to their decision more than Leavers.0 -
Chris Cillizza notes the collapse of the last vestiges of coherence in the Trump campaign: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/an-unshackled-trump-an-unmoored-campaign-lurching-to-the-finish-line/2016/10/16/16e09b4c-93aa-11e6-ae9d-0030ac1899cd_story.html
The relatively brief attempt at disciplining and professionalising Trump's campaign seems to have been abandoned. This is a disaster for the Republicans who must seriously fear the down ticket consequences.0 -
And there is no workforce. Nor any infrastructure or support industry of any kind, from maintenance though hotelsFishing said:
... and that its cost is simply frightening ...RobD said:
Trouble is it is even further from everyone else than Heathrow (apart from those in East London)JennyFreeman said:I still rather liked the idea of a brand new estuary airport. Places like Hong Kong did it with style. Heathrow's a bit of a mess.
East Londoners don't fly much - the demand is in the centre, west and south-west. See the Competition Commission's 2008 Provisional Findings on its Airports Inquiry.
And there are birds everywhere
And it would devastate the employment market in west London
And it would have cost a fortune
And the transport links would have started a whole new debate about the impact on east London
Boris island was no more real than Tracey Island.0 -
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!0 -
National - GWU/Battleground - Sample 1.000 - 8-13 Oct
Clinton 47 .. Trump 39
https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/new-gw-battleground-poll-clinton-begins-pull-away-trump-and-voters-think-she’ll-win0 -
Morning all,
Update on early POTUS voting:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-more-states_b_12517738.html0 -
I would have thought their best hope is that people turn out in droves to stop Trump by voting Clinton - but then vote for a Republican congress to stop her actually doing anything (although given her track record it would be a seriously optimistic individual who thought she would achieve anything anyway).DavidL said:Chris Cillizza notes the collapse of the last vestiges of coherence in the Trump campaign: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/an-unshackled-trump-an-unmoored-campaign-lurching-to-the-finish-line/2016/10/16/16e09b4c-93aa-11e6-ae9d-0030ac1899cd_story.html
The relatively brief attempt at disciplining and professionalising Trump's campaign seems to have been abandoned. This is a disaster for the Republicans who must seriously fear the down ticket consequences.
However, a hammering more humiliating than that doled out to Gorbachev in 1996 is starting to look a real possibility.0 -
Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?logical_song said:
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!0 -
so we will save a fortune on obesity as we buy less of out favourite treatsCarlottaVance said:Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
http://news.sky.com/story/nick-clegg-chocolate-cheese-and-wine-to-be-hit-by-hard-brexit-10620761
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....0 -
Of all the uncertainly in the US election, the one sure thing is that the need for popcorn is far from over!Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!0 -
National Panel Tracker - LA Times - Sample 2,946 - 16 Oct
Clinton 43.9 .. Trump 44.5
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/0 -
Oh, but he is. You highlighted the closet poll - and he still loses. Other polls have Clinton 11 points ahead.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?logical_song said:
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!0 -
I think we are looking at a landslide myself. Trump's final meltdown is yet to come I suspect as we enter the last three weeks or so.ydoethur said:
I would have thought their best hope is that people turn out in droves to stop Trump by voting Clinton - but then vote for a Republican congress to stop her actually doing anything (although given her track record it would be a seriously optimistic individual who thought she would achieve anything anyway).DavidL said:Chris Cillizza notes the collapse of the last vestiges of coherence in the Trump campaign: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/an-unshackled-trump-an-unmoored-campaign-lurching-to-the-finish-line/2016/10/16/16e09b4c-93aa-11e6-ae9d-0030ac1899cd_story.html
The relatively brief attempt at disciplining and professionalising Trump's campaign seems to have been abandoned. This is a disaster for the Republicans who must seriously fear the down ticket consequences.
However, a hammering more humiliating than that doled out to Gorbachev in 1996 is starting to look a real possibility.
I'm on Texas going Dem, for a bit of late night fun on the night.0 -
closest !logical_song said:
Oh, but he is. You highlighted the closet poll - and he still loses. Other polls have Clinton 11 points ahead.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?logical_song said:
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!0 -
Aren't you guilty of the same, by highlighting Clinton's most favourable poll?logical_song said:
Oh, but he is. You highlighted the closet poll - and he still loses. Other polls have Clinton 11 points ahead.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?logical_song said:
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!
538 makes the gap six points
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/0 -
The popcorn is fixed by a global conspiracy. they're using chemtrails.Sandpit said:
Of all the uncertainly in the US election, the one sure thing is that the need for popcorn is far from over!Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!0 -
Some will split ticket and some will come out for their Congressmen and Senators but not bother with the Presidential vote but the risk of a significant number of Republicans just not turning out at all resulting in differential turnout for the Dems must be high and getting higher. I will be surprised if Clinton gets less than 350 ECVs now.ydoethur said:
I would have thought their best hope is that people turn out in droves to stop Trump by voting Clinton - but then vote for a Republican congress to stop her actually doing anything (although given her track record it would be a seriously optimistic individual who thought she would achieve anything anyway).DavidL said:Chris Cillizza notes the collapse of the last vestiges of coherence in the Trump campaign: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/an-unshackled-trump-an-unmoored-campaign-lurching-to-the-finish-line/2016/10/16/16e09b4c-93aa-11e6-ae9d-0030ac1899cd_story.html
The relatively brief attempt at disciplining and professionalising Trump's campaign seems to have been abandoned. This is a disaster for the Republicans who must seriously fear the down ticket consequences.
However, a hammering more humiliating than that doled out to Gorbachev in 1996 is starting to look a real possibility.0 -
How do you measure airport capacity?Fishing said:I know the area fairly well, and my instinct, unsupported by any analysis, is that the by-election would be single-issue, and Zac would prevail if he ran as an independent. If he did not run, it would be very difficult to predict - feeling in West London over R3 runs very high, as I remember from the last time the government tried to build one.
I'm not even sure that R3 will ever get built - we've been here before and it didn't. Personally, I'd support another runway at Gatwick and one at Stansted, as there would be less political opposition or environment damage. Airport capacity in London should be abundant, as it is in most other great cities around the world.
I take it the Heathrow puffers here know that R3 would cost twice as much as Gatwick R2?
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Six points is not as close as Romney got so no he's not.RobD said:
Aren't you guilty of the same, by highlighting Clinton's most favourable poll?logical_song said:
Oh, but he is. You highlighted the closet poll - and he still loses. Other polls have Clinton 11 points ahead.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?logical_song said:
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!
538 makes the gap six points
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/0 -
Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!.logical_song said:
closest !logical_song said:
Oh, but he is. You highlighted the closet poll - and he still loses. Other polls have Clinton 11 points ahead.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?logical_song said:
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!
Are us polls normally this variable. Clinton anything from landslide to losing?0 -
She's not as good a candidate as Obama but she's clearly polling ahead of his 2012 result. You picked a poll that happened to show a weaker performance than her average. You could just as well have quoted the NBC/WSJ one, which has her 11% ahead.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?logical_song said:
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!0 -
No, but it's a lot closer than 11.Philip_Thompson said:
Six points is not as close as Romney got so no he's not.RobD said:
Aren't you guilty of the same, by highlighting Clinton's most favourable poll?logical_song said:
Oh, but he is. You highlighted the closet poll - and he still loses. Other polls have Clinton 11 points ahead.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?logical_song said:
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!
538 makes the gap six points
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/0 -
Part of Trump's problem is that, as he isn't a politician, he hasn't used the correct code words.DavidL said:Chris Cillizza notes the collapse of the last vestiges of coherence in the Trump campaign: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/an-unshackled-trump-an-unmoored-campaign-lurching-to-the-finish-line/2016/10/16/16e09b4c-93aa-11e6-ae9d-0030ac1899cd_story.html
The relatively brief attempt at disciplining and professionalising Trump's campaign seems to have been abandoned. This is a disaster for the Republicans who must seriously fear the down ticket consequences.
If you remember his disastrous 17 positions on abortion in 3 minutes fiasco from earlier in the year. He got into trouble because he said women seeking abortion should be punished.
Now to man on the street it is logically obvious that if abortion is illegal and you consider abortion murder then the women has to be punished otherwise your entire legal system falls into incoherence but Rep candidates have got incredibly skilled at talking round this to give the impression that banning abortion wouldn't involve prosecuting the mother as that causes outrage amongst too many people. But wink wink nudge nudge it will totally happen.0 -
Imagine if Biden was the Dem candidate. It would be 15 points or more. He must be rueing not running now.logical_song said:
Oh, but he is. You highlighted the closet poll - and he still loses. Other polls have Clinton 11 points ahead.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?logical_song said:
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%Paul_Bedfordshire said:I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!0 -
And it would banjax the Irish agricultural sector:Alanbrooke said:
so we will save a fortune on obesity as we buy less of out favourite treatsCarlottaVance said:Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
http://news.sky.com/story/nick-clegg-chocolate-cheese-and-wine-to-be-hit-by-hard-brexit-10620761
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/irish-beef-tops-uk-beef-imports-while-we-took-37-of-the-uks-beef-exports/0 -
A Zac win as an independent opens up some interesting possibilities for Caroline Lucas. He is clearly an environmentalist-Tory (not as mad as it sounds) and she has been a little hamstrung iirc by not having a second MP to propose stuff with.Innocent_Abroad said:
How do you measure airport capacity?Fishing said:I know the area fairly well, and my instinct, unsupported by any analysis, is that the by-election would be single-issue, and Zac would prevail if he ran as an independent. If he did not run, it would be very difficult to predict - feeling in West London over R3 runs very high, as I remember from the last time the government tried to build one.
I'm not even sure that R3 will ever get built - we've been here before and it didn't. Personally, I'd support another runway at Gatwick and one at Stansted, as there would be less political opposition or environment damage. Airport capacity in London should be abundant, as it is in most other great cities around the world.
I take it the Heathrow puffers here know that R3 would cost twice as much as Gatwick R2?0 -
They could always rejoin the UK. No one forced them to leave.CarlottaVance said:
And it would banjax the Irish agricultural sector:Alanbrooke said:
so we will save a fortune on obesity as we buy less of out favourite treatsCarlottaVance said:Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
http://news.sky.com/story/nick-clegg-chocolate-cheese-and-wine-to-be-hit-by-hard-brexit-10620761
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/irish-beef-tops-uk-beef-imports-while-we-took-37-of-the-uks-beef-exports/0
