The relatively brief attempt at disciplining and professionalising Trump's campaign seems to have been abandoned. This is a disaster for the Republicans who must seriously fear the down ticket consequences.
The Fix has also abandoned any attempt to be objective - he's got so OTT, I've unfollowed him on Twitter - I used to like his stuff too. This election is like Brexit with knobs on.
The relatively brief attempt at disciplining and professionalising Trump's campaign seems to have been abandoned. This is a disaster for the Republicans who must seriously fear the down ticket consequences.
The Fix has also abandoned any attempt to be objective - he's got so OTT, I've unfollowed him on Twitter - I used to like his stuff too. This election is like Brexit with knobs on.
I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%
Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?
Oh, but he is. You highlighted the closet poll - and he still loses. Other polls have Clinton 11 points ahead.
closest !
Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!.
Are us polls normally this variable. Clinton anything from landslide to losing?
Pretty much: "Losing" is Rasmussen which is usually a fair few points more Republican than the average, and Gallup was giving Romney quite strong numbers as well, so much so that they subsequently gave up.
They seem to coverge a bit when they get to the final polls before the election.
The relatively brief attempt at disciplining and professionalising Trump's campaign seems to have been abandoned. This is a disaster for the Republicans who must seriously fear the down ticket consequences.
The Fix has also abandoned any attempt to be objective - he's got so OTT, I've unfollowed him on Twitter - I used to like his stuff too. This election is like Brexit with knobs on.
I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!
Obama beat Romney by 3.9%
Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?
Oh, but he is. You highlighted the closet poll - and he still loses. Other polls have Clinton 11 points ahead.
closest !
Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!.
Are us polls normally this variable. Clinton anything from landslide to losing?
Pretty much: "Losing" is Rasmussen which is usually a fair few points more Republican than the average, and Gallup was giving Romney quite strong numbers as well, so much so that they subsequently gave up.
They seem to coverge a bit when they get to the final polls before the election.
Ironically Gallup partly messed up because they under weighted demographic sub groups - the opposite problem to the LA Times tracker.
I take it the Heathrow puffers here know that R3 would cost twice as much as Gatwick R2?
Measurement of airport capacity - without getting more technical than is appropriate here, there are generally thought to be six measures of airport capacity (surface access capacity, terminal capacity, runway capacity, airspace capacity, apron capacity and regulatory capacity). The example of Heathrow is useful in illustrating the difference between some of these. Until T5 opened, it was terminal-capacity constrained - even with a third runway, the existing terminals couldn't handle more passengers. Now, with the 480k ATM limit, it is regulatory constrained. If that is removed, it will be runway capacity constrained. So the limit will have to be raised as part of any R3 package.
Cost - My estimate is that R3 would cost £24 billion or so and G2 around £8 billion.
The relatively brief attempt at disciplining and professionalising Trump's campaign seems to have been abandoned. This is a disaster for the Republicans who must seriously fear the down ticket consequences.
The Fix has also abandoned any attempt to be objective - he's got so OTT, I've unfollowed him on Twitter - I used to like his stuff too. This election is like Brexit with knobs on.
But you unquestionably believe random websites that post lies about Clinton's e-mails?
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!.
Are us polls normally this variable. Clinton anything from landslide to losing?
The LA tracker is 538 adjusted to +5 points to Clinton. The only other poll with Trump ahead is Rasmussen (Chortle .. ) whose last offering had Trump on 24% of the black vote .... mega chortle .. )
Presently I'd assess Clinton ahead +6/7 with a lead in the EC of 333/170 with Arizona, Iowa and Ohio too close to call.
The relatively brief attempt at disciplining and professionalising Trump's campaign seems to have been abandoned. This is a disaster for the Republicans who must seriously fear the down ticket consequences.
The Fix has also abandoned any attempt to be objective - he's got so OTT, I've unfollowed him on Twitter - I used to like his stuff too. This election is like Brexit with knobs on.
I don't detect any great enthusiasm for Hilary. I just think Cillizza sees politics as a business and a skill and Trump is just not playing the game. No doubt that is a major part of his attraction for some but the rules of that game were determined by what works, what wins and what is a useful way of spending your energy in the run up to the election. Trump just doesn't get it and he will pay the price.
I take it the Heathrow puffers here know that R3 would cost twice as much as Gatwick R2?
Measurement of airport capacity - without getting more technical than is appropriate here, there are generally thought to be six measures of airport capacity (surface access capacity, terminal capacity, runway capacity, airspace capacity, apron capacity and regulatory capacity). The example of Heathrow is useful in illustrating the difference between some of these. Until T5 opened, it was terminal-capacity constrained - even with a third runway, the existing terminals couldn't handle more passengers. Now, with the 480k ATM limit, it is regulatory constrained. If that is removed, it will be runway capacity constrained. So the limit will have to be raised as part of any R3 package.
Cost - My estimate is that R3 would cost £24 billion or so and G2 around £8 billion.
No doubt someone will come along before long to explain why it would be better to explain that£16b on Heathrow rather than the NHS.
Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!.
Are us polls normally this variable. Clinton anything from landslide to losing?
The LA tracker is 538 adjusted to +5 points to Clinton. The only other poll with Trump ahead is Rasmussen (Chortle .. ) whose last offering had Trump on 24% of the black vote .... mega chortle .. )
Presently I'd assess Clinton ahead +6/7 with a lead in the EC of 333/170 with Arizona, Iowa and Ohio too close to call.
Jackw, I realise you were mostly indisposed prior to the EU referendum, but did you have a whiff of the result before the event? You don't detect any similar scent of an upset in the US?
On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?
Indeed. That would be a stupid policy to put to local voters. But if the natural answer is to nominate an anti-runway candidate for the Conservatives, the natural answer would be to nominate Zac.
So the Tories don't run a candidate. Treat it like David Davis. Matter of conscience, made a pledge to the voters, great constituency MP, blah blah blah, can decide later in the Parliament whether to retake the whip, but better than a LibDem in Westminster, better than coming third. And he will sometimes vote with the Govt.
Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!.
Are us polls normally this variable. Clinton anything from landslide to losing?
The LA tracker is 538 adjusted to +5 points to Clinton. The only other poll with Trump ahead is Rasmussen (Chortle .. ) whose last offering had Trump on 24% of the black vote .... mega chortle .. )
Presently I'd assess Clinton ahead +6/7 with a lead in the EC of 333/170 with Arizona, Iowa and Ohio too close to call.
Jackw, I realise you were mostly indisposed prior to the EU referendum, but did you have a whiff of the result before the event? You don't detect any similar scent of an upset in the US?
PS trust you are hale and hearty these days, long may it continue
Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!.
Are us polls normally this variable. Clinton anything from landslide to losing?
The LA tracker is 538 adjusted to +5 points to Clinton. The only other poll with Trump ahead is Rasmussen (Chortle .. ) whose last offering had Trump on 24% of the black vote .... mega chortle .. )
Presently I'd assess Clinton ahead +6/7 with a lead in the EC of 333/170 with Arizona, Iowa and Ohio too close to call.
Jackw, I realise you were mostly indisposed prior to the EU referendum, but did you have a whiff of the result before the event? You don't detect any similar scent of an upset in the US?
Are you suggesting JackW whiff his own ARSE? I didn't know that he was a contortionist.
If Clegg is seriously suggesting that we should impose 59% import tariffs on Irish beef, I think the Irish might take a view on that:
This makes the UK the largest market for Irish beef, as it accounted for over 57% of Irish beef exports in 2015.
According to the AHDB, there are no other Member States for which the UK market is more important, nor are imports from the global market particularly significant either.
The Netherlands is the only significant supplier into the UK, but it represents less than 5% of beef and veal exports from the Netherlands.
While the numbers are much smaller, Ireland is now the largest market for UK beef exports, accounting for 37% of UK beef exports. In 2014, the UK exported over 112,000t of beef, less than half the volumes Ireland exported to the UK in the same year.
I take it the Heathrow puffers here know that R3 would cost twice as much as Gatwick R2?
Measurement of airport capacity - without getting more technical than is appropriate here, there are generally thought to be six measures of airport capacity (surface access capacity, terminal capacity, runway capacity, airspace capacity, apron capacity and regulatory capacity). The example of Heathrow is useful in illustrating the difference between some of these. Until T5 opened, it was terminal-capacity constrained - even with a third runway, the existing terminals couldn't handle more passengers. Now, with the 480k ATM limit, it is regulatory constrained. If that is removed, it will be runway capacity constrained. So the limit will have to be raised as part of any R3 package.
Cost - My estimate is that R3 would cost £24 billion or so and G2 around £8 billion.
No doubt someone will come along before long to explain why it would be better to explain that£16b on Heathrow rather than the NHS.
Simply put, it builds the economy, that is then better able to support the NHS for decades to come rather than a £16bn lump sum.
Why do Trumpers keep talking him up? On a betting site run from the UK it doesn't matter what we believe, we have no vote. Surely a focus on the facts to help us make betting choices would be better than emotional ramping or denigrating of either candidate. So Plato and Paul, give us a reason why Trump might win a particular State that we could consider when betting. He aint gonna win the White House.
Why do Trumpers keep talking him up? On a betting site run from the UK it doesn't matter what we believe, we have no vote. Surely a focus on the facts to help us make betting choices would be better than emotional ramping or denigrating of either candidate. So Plato and Paul, give us a reason why Trump might win a particular State that we could consider when betting. He aint gonna win the White House.
oi. Point of order. Im not a trumpster and Im not talking him up
My guess at the moment is 352 for Hilary based upon her taking Ohio and Arizona but losing Iowa. I am struggling to see Trump do any better than this and it just might turn out worse.
On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?
Indeed. That would be a stupid policy to put to local voters. But if the natural answer is to nominate an anti-runway candidate for the Conservatives, the natural answer would be to nominate Zac.
So the Tories don't run a candidate. Treat it like David Davis. Matter of conscience, made a pledge to the voters, great constituency MP, blah blah blah, can decide later in the Parliament whether to retake the whip, but better than a LibDem in Westminster, better than coming third. And he will sometimes vote with the Govt.
A test of May's pragmatic politics?
Would be sensible.
Cameron deserves no plaudits for delaying the decision, should have been done 9th May 2015.
No doubt someone will come along before long to explain why it would be better to explain that£16b on Heathrow rather than the NHS.
Airport expansion is not financed by public expenditure, but by airline charges and retail revenues. In theory this will be the case for R3, though in practice the government may have to stick in a billion or two.
On topic - so there's a by-election; Zak stands as an anti-runway Indendent, the LibDems stand as anti-runway LibDems, what does the Conservative Party do? They can hardly stand down and give the anti-runway side a free pass, surely?
Indeed. That would be a stupid policy to put to local voters. But if the natural answer is to nominate an anti-runway candidate for the Conservatives, the natural answer would be to nominate Zac.
I assume the Tories would nominate Zac if he wanted their nomination.
I take it the Heathrow puffers here know that R3 would cost twice as much as Gatwick R2?
Measurement of airport capacity - without getting more technical than is appropriate here, there are generally thought to be six measures of airport capacity (surface access capacity, terminal capacity, runway capacity, airspace capacity, apron capacity and regulatory capacity). The example of Heathrow is useful in illustrating the difference between some of these. Until T5 opened, it was terminal-capacity constrained - even with a third runway, the existing terminals couldn't handle more passengers. Now, with the 480k ATM limit, it is regulatory constrained. If that is removed, it will be runway capacity constrained. So the limit will have to be raised as part of any R3 package.
Cost - My estimate is that R3 would cost £24 billion or so and G2 around £8 billion.
No doubt someone will come along before long to explain why it would be better to explain that£16b on Heathrow rather than the NHS.
Simply put, it builds the economy, that is then better able to support the NHS for decades to come rather than a £16bn lump sum.
Would that also be true of cutting the NHS to build Heathrow's fourth, fifth and sixth runways? Of selling inner London's social housing to the Chinese?
Jackw, I realise you were mostly indisposed prior to the EU referendum, but did you have a whiff of the result before the event? You don't detect any similar scent of an upset in the US?
I was trending BREXIT before I had to cry off a month before the vote. That said I assess I would have been 52/48 Remain. So a miss there, although the trend line was clear. Essentially underestimated Labour LEAVE vote.
The US election is completely different. Vast amounts of data, including early voting returns. Clinton will win because she's not Trump. He's being hammered in the critical demographics of latino and women voters.
Thanks for your later post good wishes.
Could be better but still batting at the crease. The grim reaper had a decision reviewed and I was adjusted not out on "umpires call" ..
The relatively brief attempt at disciplining and professionalising Trump's campaign seems to have been abandoned. This is a disaster for the Republicans who must seriously fear the down ticket consequences.
The Fix has also abandoned any attempt to be objective - he's got so OTT, I've unfollowed him on Twitter - I used to like his stuff too. This election is like Brexit with knobs on.
I don't detect any great enthusiasm for Hilary. I just think Cillizza sees politics as a business and a skill and Trump is just not playing the game. No doubt that is a major part of his attraction for some but the rules of that game were determined by what works, what wins and what is a useful way of spending your energy in the run up to the election. Trump just doesn't get it and he will pay the price.
I certainly don't give Trump any points for playing the game as was and he's clearly irked about sex allegations. He needs to stop talking about it.
There's so much wrong with this election, it's mindbending. Last night the GOP campaign office in Orange County was fire bombed and Nazis accusation graffiti sprayed on walls.
I said yesterday I was concerned about civil unrest whatever the outcome. It's already started.
Jackw, I realise you were mostly indisposed prior to the EU referendum, but did you have a whiff of the result before the event? You don't detect any similar scent of an upset in the US?
I was trending BREXIT before I had to cry off a month before the vote. That said I assess I would have been 52/48 Remain. So a miss there, although the trend line was clear. Essentially underestimated Labour LEAVE vote.
The US election is completely different. Vast amounts of data, including early voting returns. Clinton will win because she's not Trump. He's being hammered in the critical demographics of latino and women voters.
Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!.
Are us polls normally this variable. Clinton anything from landslide to losing?
The LA tracker is 538 adjusted to +5 points to Clinton. The only other poll with Trump ahead is Rasmussen (Chortle .. ) whose last offering had Trump on 24% of the black vote .... mega chortle .. )
Presently I'd assess Clinton ahead +6/7 with a lead in the EC of 333/170 with Arizona, Iowa and Ohio too close to call.
Jackw, I realise you were mostly indisposed prior to the EU referendum, but did you have a whiff of the result before the event? You don't detect any similar scent of an upset in the US?
Are you suggesting JackW whiff his own ARSE? I didn't know that he was a contortionist.
There are a myriad of polls being posted on here,. Unless you are "in the know" it doesn't seem that one can draw any conclusions from them. Perhaps they need a statement as to whether they are good or bad, or some way of interpreting them.
Why do Trumpers keep talking him up? On a betting site run from the UK it doesn't matter what we believe, we have no vote. Surely a focus on the facts to help us make betting choices would be better than emotional ramping or denigrating of either candidate. So Plato and Paul, give us a reason why Trump might win a particular State that we could consider when betting. He aint gonna win the White House.
oi. Point of order. Im not a trumpster and Im not talking him up
harummpphhh
Sorry I based it on your posts this morning:
"I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary. Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!
"Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!."
"Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?"
Only if punishment is being hanged, drawn, and quartered.
Unnecessary petition. It is already an offence as you allude to. Need a petition instead to reinstate the traditional sentence you refer to. Its the only language they understand
But when this reality started [to] perforate the self-satisfied bubble of disgust, those who had blown it up just called the move a U-turn and went on their way, ready to be righteous another day.
There are a myriad of polls being posted on here,. Unless you are "in the know" it doesn't seem that one can draw any conclusions from them. Perhaps they need a statement as to whether they are good or bad, or some way of interpreting them.
Take a gander at 538. All polls are adjusted as required :
Jackw, I realise you were mostly indisposed prior to the EU referendum, but did you have a whiff of the result before the event? You don't detect any similar scent of an upset in the US?
I was trending BREXIT before I had to cry off a month before the vote. That said I assess I would have been 52/48 Remain. So a miss there, although the trend line was clear. Essentially underestimated Labour LEAVE vote.
The US election is completely different. Vast amounts of data, including early voting returns. Clinton will win because she's not Trump. He's being hammered in the critical demographics of latino and women voters.
Thanks for your later post good wishes.
Could be better but still batting at the crease. The grim reaper had a decision reviewed and I was adjusted not out on "umpires call" ..
I think the "regret" wording kind-of nudges towards a "yes", because it encourages you to think of the downsides and/or the claims that turned out to be lies.
It's entirely misleading anyway.
Q. Do you regret those eight pints you drank last night ? A. Yes Q. Are you going to drink eight pints next Friday ? A. You bet!
Just because you regret something (ie. recognise the negative consequences) doesn't mean you wouldn't have done it different, or would do it any different next time.
Why do Trumpers keep talking him up? On a betting site run from the UK it doesn't matter what we believe, we have no vote. Surely a focus on the facts to help us make betting choices would be better than emotional ramping or denigrating of either candidate. So Plato and Paul, give us a reason why Trump might win a particular State that we could consider when betting. He aint gonna win the White House.
oi. Point of order. Im not a trumpster and Im not talking him up
harummpphhh
Sorry I based it on your posts this morning:
"I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary. Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!
"Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!."
"Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?"
I am no fan of Hillary but dont think its over, although trump is clearly his own worst enem
I am mainly looking for evidence to make a long odds bet a la brexit worthwhile. Although the odds are not quite long enough yet.
There are a myriad of polls being posted on here,. Unless you are "in the know" it doesn't seem that one can draw any conclusions from them. Perhaps they need a statement as to whether they are good or bad, or some way of interpreting them.
Take a gander at 538. All polls are adjusted as required :
Could be better but still batting at the crease. The grim reaper had a decision reviewed and I was adjusted not out on "umpires call" ..
Very glad to hear that, on a personal level of course, but also because a world without your awesome ARSE and its periodic Frighteningly Accurate Reports on Trends (FARTs) would scarcely be worth living in.
I take it the Heathrow puffers here know that R3 would cost twice as much as Gatwick R2?
Measurement of airport capacity - without getting more technical than is appropriate here, there are generally thought to be six measures of airport capacity (surface access capacity, terminal capacity, runway capacity, airspace capacity, apron capacity and regulatory capacity). The example of Heathrow is useful in illustrating the difference between some of these. Until T5 opened, it was terminal-capacity constrained - even with a third runway, the existing terminals couldn't handle more passengers. Now, with the 480k ATM limit, it is regulatory constrained. If that is removed, it will be runway capacity constrained. So the limit will have to be raised as part of any R3 package.
Cost - My estimate is that R3 would cost £24 billion or so and G2 around £8 billion.
No doubt someone will come along before long to explain why it would be better to explain that£16b on Heathrow rather than the NHS.
Simply put, it builds the economy, that is then better able to support the NHS for decades to come rather than a £16bn lump sum.
Would that also be true of cutting the NHS to build Heathrow's fourth, fifth and sixth runways? Of selling inner London's social housing to the Chinese?
NHS funding has only actually been cut in one year since its creation and that was under Labour.
Could be better but still batting at the crease. The grim reaper had a decision reviewed and I was adjusted not out on "umpires call" ..
Very glad to hear that, on a personal level of course, but also because a world without your awesome ARSE and its periodic Frighteningly Accurate Reports on Trends (FARTs) would scarcely be worth living in.
@Fishing .. You're clearly hooked, line and sinker on my ARSE ..
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
Britain could certainly unilaterally open its markets to imports from countries that charged tariffs on British exports. But does anyone think it would?
There are more sources of cheese, wine & chocolate than the EU.....
Why do Trumpers keep talking him up? On a betting site run from the UK it doesn't matter what we believe, we have no vote. Surely a focus on the facts to help us make betting choices would be better than emotional ramping or denigrating of either candidate.
Crazy though it is, I think they actually believe they're doing their bit to move the price.
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
Britain could certainly unilaterally open its markets to imports from countries that charged tariffs on British exports. But does anyone think it would?
There are more sources of cheese, wine & chocolate than the EU.....
not decent ones that people want though
Nothing wrong with many Southern Hemisphere wines.
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
Britain could certainly unilaterally open its markets to imports from countries that charged tariffs on British exports. But does anyone think it would?
There are more sources of cheese, wine & chocolate than the EU.....
not decent ones that people want though
Nothing wrong with many Southern Hemisphere wines.
Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Chile (even, whisper it quietly, Argentina if they're not being silly buggers...)
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
Britain could certainly unilaterally open its markets to imports from countries that charged tariffs on British exports. But does anyone think it would?
There are more sources of cheese, wine & chocolate than the EU.....
not decent ones that people want though
Good morning Malcolm. Mrs M would strongly disagree about Swiss chocolate not being 'decent'!
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
Britain could certainly unilaterally open its markets to imports from countries that charged tariffs on British exports. But does anyone think it would?
There are more sources of cheese, wine & chocolate than the EU.....
not decent ones that people want though
Nothing wrong with many Southern Hemisphere wines.
Free of the EU jackboot, you will be able to make yr camembert in Leicester and yr Toulouse sausage in Sutton Coldfield...
Why do Trumpers keep talking him up? On a betting site run from the UK it doesn't matter what we believe, we have no vote. Surely a focus on the facts to help us make betting choices would be better than emotional ramping or denigrating of either candidate. So Plato and Paul, give us a reason why Trump might win a particular State that we could consider when betting. He aint gonna win the White House.
oi. Point of order. Im not a trumpster and Im not talking him up
harummpphhh
Sorry I based it on your posts this morning:
"I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary. Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!
"Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!."
"Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?"
I am no fan of Hillary but dont think its over, although trump is clearly his own worst enem
I am mainly looking for evidence to make a long odds bet a la brexit worthwhile. Although the odds are not quite long enough yet.
There are occasions (in fact most of them statistically) when long odds are justified. Laterally Brexit betting odds were actually going against much of the polling evidence.
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
Britain could certainly unilaterally open its markets to imports from countries that charged tariffs on British exports. But does anyone think it would?
There are more sources of cheese, wine & chocolate than the EU.....
not decent ones that people want though
Nothing wrong with many Southern Hemisphere wines.
Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Chile (even, whisper it quietly, Argentina if they're not being silly buggers...)
I think Malcolm's an old Tory snob!
Hehe - I periodically place a personal embargo on Argie products.
The last one was when they wanted to extradite Clarkson for having the temerity to drive a car and be pelted with stones from bolshy nationals.
Why do Trumpers keep talking him up? On a betting site run from the UK it doesn't matter what we believe, we have no vote. Surely a focus on the facts to help us make betting choices would be better than emotional ramping or denigrating of either candidate. So Plato and Paul, give us a reason why Trump might win a particular State that we could consider when betting. He aint gonna win the White House.
oi. Point of order. Im not a trumpster and Im not talking him up
harummpphhh
Sorry I based it on your posts this morning:
"I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary. Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!
"Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!."
"Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?"
I am no fan of Hillary but dont think its over, although trump is clearly his own worst enem
I am mainly looking for evidence to make a long odds bet a la brexit worthwhile. Although the odds are not quite long enough yet.
There are occasions (in fact most of them statistically) when long odds are justified. Laterally Brexit betting odds were actually going against much of the polling evidence.
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
so we will save a fortune on obesity as we buy less of out favourite treats
Do you realise that we save money big time on NHS costs if the people are fat, and smokers and drunk and drug addicts? If it was lifecycle costs we wanted to save the government should be all out promoting sugar, transfats, booze and smack.
They will have ironed the brownshirts as well, the junta is well down the road
Can you believe it?
They're assigning government busy bodies to check up on every single child in the country!
How oppressive can you get?
I suppose you could abolish all the local police forces and centralise them under one regime, the better to keep track of dissent.....
Of course, all the while you've got to keep going On and On and On and On and On and On On and On and On and On and On and On On and On and On and On and On and On....about how the problems you're failing to deal with after many years in government are someone else's fault.
There are occasions (in fact most of them statistically) when long odds are justified. Laterally Brexit betting odds were actually going against much of the polling evidence.
Nate Silver currently says "it could be argued" that Trump's odds should be longer. Currently they match his model prediction, but there hasn't been time for the model to reflect the latest round of sex pest allegations.
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
Britain could certainly unilaterally open its markets to imports from countries that charged tariffs on British exports. But does anyone think it would?
There are more sources of cheese, wine & chocolate than the EU.....
not decent ones that people want though
Nothing wrong with many Southern Hemisphere wines.
Free of the EU jackboot, you will be able to make yr camembert in Leicester and yr Toulouse sausage in Sutton Coldfield...
Except you wouldn't. This is the same as the Pol Roger "pints of champagne" story. The statute book won't magically revert back to New Year's Eve, 1972.
No doubt someone will come along before long to explain why it would be better to explain that£16b on Heathrow rather than the NHS.
Airport expansion is not financed by public expenditure, but by airline charges and retail revenues. In theory this will be the case for R3, though in practice the government may have to stick in a billion or two.
With the key point that, like Hinckley or Trident renewal, this is a one off cost amortised over many years, not annual expenditure like health or welfare (or EU membership).
Incidentally, in considering the possibility that the polls could be wrong, Silver also mentions Brexit. He thinks there is more uncertainty than usual with the polls, given a larger number of undecided voters than usual (though he seems to think it's likelier that they are underestimating Clinton's support than Trump's). But he reckons that a polling error of the size seen with Brexit wouldn't be enough on its own to give Trump the election: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-the-race-stands-with-three-weeks-to-go/
They will have ironed the brownshirts as well, the junta is well down the road
Can you believe it?
They're assigning government busy bodies to check up on every single child in the country!
Like teachers?
Teachers, who should be working with parents to educate children, rather than against parents as glorified social workers snooping for the state, as if it were China or Soviet Russia.
They will have ironed the brownshirts as well, the junta is well down the road
Can you believe it?
They're assigning government busy bodies to check up on every single child in the country!
Like teachers?
Teachers, who should be working with parents to educate children, rather than against parents as glorified social workers snooping for the state, as if it were China or Soviet Russia.
Especially given the situation of Scottish education....
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
Britain could certainly unilaterally open its markets to imports from countries that charged tariffs on British exports. But does anyone think it would?
There are more sources of cheese, wine & chocolate than the EU.....
not decent ones that people want though
Nothing wrong with many Southern Hemisphere wines.
Free of the EU jackboot, you will be able to make yr camembert in Leicester and yr Toulouse sausage in Sutton Coldfield...
Except you wouldn't. This is the same as the Pol Roger "pints of champagne" story. The statute book won't magically revert back to New Year's Eve, 1972.
(I should have added an irony tag to that post)
I wasn't familiar with it. Was someone preventing the making of a 568.261ml bottle?
Must admit I am no expert. We do have Hokkaido camembert in Japan, however, so I assumed that this kind of thing might be possible
They will have ironed the brownshirts as well, the junta is well down the road
Can you believe it?
They're assigning government busy bodies to check up on every single child in the country!
Like teachers?
Teachers, who should be working with parents to educate children, rather than against parents as glorified social workers snooping for the state, as if it were China or Soviet Russia.
That's already a teachers' job. Or are you saying teachers should ignore warning signs of abuse and neglect?
"Sure littlen Timmy kept coming to school late, mapnourished and covered in bruises but I didn't want to be a snoop"
They will have ironed the brownshirts as well, the junta is well down the road
Can you believe it?
They're assigning government busy bodies to check up on every single child in the country!
Like teachers?
Teachers, who should be working with parents to educate children, rather than against parents as glorified social workers snooping for the state, as if it were China or Soviet Russia.
That's already a teachers' job. Or are you saying teachers should ignore warning signs of abuse and neglect?
"Sure littlen Timmy kept coming to school late, mapnourished and covered in bruises but I didn't want to be a snoop"
Resorting to Straw Man tactics.....don't worry, I don't think anyone will notice....
No doubt someone will come along before long to explain why it would be better to explain that£16b on Heathrow rather than the NHS.
Airport expansion is not financed by public expenditure, but by airline charges and retail revenues. In theory this will be the case for R3, though in practice the government may have to stick in a billion or two.
With the key point that, like Hinckley or Trident renewal, this is a one off cost amortised over many years, not annual expenditure like health or welfare (or EU membership).
That's not true of HPC. The government isn't paying for it up front; instead the electricity purchasers of the UK are locked in to a 35 year, inflation linked, volumes guaranteed deal, that starts at more than twice the prevailing price of baseload electricity.
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
Britain could certainly unilaterally open its markets to imports from countries that charged tariffs on British exports. But does anyone think it would?
There are more sources of cheese, wine & chocolate than the EU.....
not decent ones that people want though
Nothing wrong with many Southern Hemisphere wines.
Free of the EU jackboot, you will be able to make yr camembert in Leicester and yr Toulouse sausage in Sutton Coldfield...
Except you wouldn't. This is the same as the Pol Roger "pints of champagne" story. The statute book won't magically revert back to New Year's Eve, 1972.
(I should have added an irony tag to that post)
I wasn't familiar with it. Was someone preventing the making of a 568.261ml bottle?
Must admit I am no expert. We do have Hokkaido camembert in Japan, however, so I assumed that this kind of thing might be possible
It's always been possible to make a 568.261ml bottle.
They will have ironed the brownshirts as well, the junta is well down the road
Can you believe it?
They're assigning government busy bodies to check up on every single child in the country!
Like teachers?
Teachers, who should be working with parents to educate children, rather than against parents as glorified social workers snooping for the state, as if it were China or Soviet Russia.
That's already a teachers' job. Or are you saying teachers should ignore warning signs of abuse and neglect?
"Sure littlen Timmy kept coming to school late, mapnourished and covered in bruises but I didn't want to be a snoop"
Of course teachers should report clear physical abuse - but that wasn't the proposal and you know it wasn't.
Can someone explain Mr Clegg's thinking - how export tariffs affect domestic prices - or indeed import prices?
The price of chocolate, cheese and wine will increase sharply if Britain heads towards a so-called hard Brexit, according to Nick Clegg.
Speaking ahead of a Liberal Democrats food and drink Brexit impact report, he warned that Britain could only avoid tariffs on beef exports of 59%, chocolate at 38%, cheese at 40% and wine at 14%, with a soft Brexit.
Of course, Tusk has already explained that the alternative to 'Hard Brexit' is 'No Brexit'.....which evidently is what Mr Clegg is after.....
so we will save a fortune on obesity as we buy less of out favourite treats
Do you realise that we save money big time on NHS costs if the people are fat, and smokers and drunk and drug addicts? If it was lifecycle costs we wanted to save the government should be all out promoting sugar, transfats, booze and smack.
Yes, but that would prevent people enjoying themselves and the misery gut middle classes wouldnt have anyone to boss around then.
They will have ironed the brownshirts as well, the junta is well down the road
Can you believe it?
They're assigning government busy bodies to check up on every single child in the country!
Like teachers?
Teachers, who should be working with parents to educate children, rather than against parents as glorified social workers snooping for the state, as if it were China or Soviet Russia.
That's already a teachers' job. Or are you saying teachers should ignore warning signs of abuse and neglect?
"Sure littlen Timmy kept coming to school late, mapnourished and covered in bruises but I didn't want to be a snoop"
Are you suggesting that that wasn't the teachers' responsibility prior to the SNP's proposals?
Comments
They seem to coverge a bit when they get to the final polls before the election.
Read the speeches Hillary Clinton wanted kept secret, part one
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2604656/
Cost - My estimate is that R3 would cost £24 billion or so and G2 around £8 billion.
Presently I'd assess Clinton ahead +6/7 with a lead in the EC of 333/170 with Arizona, Iowa and Ohio too close to call.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/W3mXm
A test of May's pragmatic politics?
This makes the UK the largest market for Irish beef, as it accounted for over 57% of Irish beef exports in 2015.
According to the AHDB, there are no other Member States for which the UK market is more important, nor are imports from the global market particularly significant either.
The Netherlands is the only significant supplier into the UK, but it represents less than 5% of beef and veal exports from the Netherlands.
While the numbers are much smaller, Ireland is now the largest market for UK beef exports, accounting for 37% of UK beef exports. In 2014, the UK exported over 112,000t of beef, less than half the volumes Ireland exported to the UK in the same year.
http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/irish-beef-tops-uk-beef-imports-while-we-took-37-of-the-uks-beef-exports/#
On a betting site run from the UK it doesn't matter what we believe, we have no vote. Surely a focus on the facts to help us make betting choices would be better than emotional ramping or denigrating of either candidate.
So Plato and Paul, give us a reason why Trump might win a particular State that we could consider when betting. He aint gonna win the White House.
Clinton 323/180 Trump :
http://www.270towin.com/maps/XdNXp
harummpphhh
Well, good for him. Promises should be kept where possible.
Cameron deserves no plaudits for delaying the decision, should have been done 9th May 2015.
https://twitter.com/cllrholliday/status/787207171335479296
The US election is completely different. Vast amounts of data, including early voting returns. Clinton will win because she's not Trump. He's being hammered in the critical demographics of latino and women voters.
Thanks for your later post good wishes.
Could be better but still batting at the crease. The grim reaper had a decision reviewed and I was adjusted not out on "umpires call" ..
There's so much wrong with this election, it's mindbending. Last night the GOP campaign office in Orange County was fire bombed and Nazis accusation graffiti sprayed on walls.
I said yesterday I was concerned about civil unrest whatever the outcome. It's already started.
"I see the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump only 4 points behind Hilary.
Dont put the popcorn away yet folks!
"Except the one just posted that puts Trump ahead!."
"Do you not think it odd that despite everything he ia no further behind than romney was?"
As was said many times in the debate, neither side has a monopoly on idiots.
But when this reality started [to] perforate the self-satisfied bubble of disgust, those who had blown it up just called the move a U-turn and went on their way, ready to be righteous another day.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#now
Q. Do you regret those eight pints you drank last night ?
A. Yes
Q. Are you going to drink eight pints next Friday ?
A. You bet!
Just because you regret something (ie. recognise the negative consequences) doesn't mean you wouldn't have done it different, or would do it any different next time.
I am mainly looking for evidence to make a long odds bet a la brexit worthwhile. Although the odds are not quite long enough yet.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/10/17/the-chakrabarti-inquiry-was-not-worth-the-paper-it-was-written-o/
Mr. W, splendid that you remain at the crease.
Now, now, Mr P, you're only compounding the crime. Write out a hundred times ... 'I must stop being a monomaniac and accept the result.'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37674693
"Surrounded by senior Iraqi officers, the prime minister vowed that only government forces would enter Mosul, a Sunni-majority city."
Hmm. I wonder if the Kurds have agreed to that.
I think Malcolm's an old Tory snob!
Mrs M would strongly disagree about Swiss chocolate not being 'decent'!
The last one was when they wanted to extradite Clarkson for having the temerity to drive a car and be pelted with stones from bolshy nationals.
Clinton 36 .. Trump 37
http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/16/midnight-sun-exclusive-new-poll-shows-trump-clinton-tied-alaska/
Still can't believe it.
They're assigning government busy bodies to check up on every single child in the country!
How oppressive can you get?
I suppose you could abolish all the local police forces and centralise them under one regime, the better to keep track of dissent.....
Of course, all the while you've got to keep going On and On and On and On and On and On On and On and On and On and On and On On and On and On and On and On and On....about how the problems you're failing to deal with after many years in government are someone else's fault.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-the-race-stands-with-three-weeks-to-go/
I wasn't familiar with it. Was someone preventing the making of a 568.261ml bottle?
Must admit I am no expert. We do have Hokkaido camembert in Japan, however, so I assumed that this kind of thing might be possible
Hmm....tricky one.....
"Sure littlen Timmy kept coming to school late, mapnourished and covered in bruises but I didn't want to be a snoop"