politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds REMAIN voters far from being reconcil

MarqueeMark said:

Bloody pessimists.....

Maybe they've just seen their wealth, in international terms, erode by 17%

So much for all those soft remainers switching to Leave that PB leavers assured me was happening.

Mind you PB leavers said prior to June 23rd we wouldn't get a Hard Brexit.

PB Leavers, wrong then, wrong now.

Anyhoo we're getting it hard.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/786882161752276992

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mind you PB leavers said prior to June 23rd we wouldn't get a Hard Brexit.

PB Leavers, wrong then, wrong now.

The EU will be begging us for a trade deal. Like Canada...

TheScreamingEagles said:

So much for all those soft remainers switching to Leave that PB leavers assured me was happening.

Mind you PB leavers said prior to June 23rd we wouldn't get a Hard Brexit.

PB Leavers, wrong then, wrong now.

Wasn't it said prior to June 23rd that we'd stop EU contributions, negotiate our own trade deals, Leave the ECJ and control immigration.

Isn't it being said now the we will negotiate our own trade deals, Leave the ECJ and control immigration? Noticeably a complete halt to contributions was not in May's speech.

So Brexit today is currently softer than what was promised prior to June 23.

OldKingCole said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/786888284660260865

No because I say so, rarely turns out well!

What about no because you said so?

No thread on the monstrous Tory lead then? A shame....

In the same YouGov survey the "UK right/wrong to leave" question has moved almost to neck and neck (45% v 44% in favour of "right to leave") - which suggests those posting here that, were the referendum to be held again, there would now be an overwhelming leave vote may be engaging in some wishful thinking.

That said, of course the circumstances of such a second vote would influence the vote and I fully recognise the Winchester phenomenon.

Nevertheless the view that after the vote most people now think leaving the EU is a good idea appears to be challenged by the polling.

Also from Bloomberg:

L’Oreal to Be ‘Cautious’ on U.K. Price Hikes After Pound’s Slump

Because it's not worth it.

ENGIP

https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/786852441711120384

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Anyhoo we're getting it hard.

twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/786882161752276992

Tusk says its that or 'No Brexit'

No thread on the Conservative Conference bounce and 14 point lead versus Labour, or May's commanding 'Best PM' scores?

Funny that.....

Even Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband got conference bounces.

Plus Mike and I aren't writing any threads on VI polls until we've read Justin's contribution on why this poll shows Labour on course to win in 2020

RobD said:

No thread on the monstrous Tory lead then? A shame....

Or May's 'Best PM' scores......

Do you think OGH & TSE missed those?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus Mike and I aren't writing any threads on VI polls until we've read Justin's contribution on why this poll shows Labour on course to win in 2020

Good thinking, I think you should do the same for US polling and wait for Plato to unskew them before writing about them.

OldKingCole said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/786888284660260865

No because I say so, rarely turns out well!

I am really struggling to grasp May's thinking here

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Do these Yougov figures overstate the number of 18-24 voters compared to the 65+ voters, that will actually vote?

Interesting age skew:

Net 'right to leave':

18-24: -35
25-49: -12
50-64: +13
65+ : +37

FPT:

Not sure if this link has already been posted. It's got some good info on the Brexit negotiating priorities of different EU countries, and also conveniently summaries some of the trade and migration statistics by country:

http://cicero-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Brexit-negotiations-The-View-from-the-EU.pdf

CarlottaVance said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Do these Yougov figures overstate the number of 18-24 voters compared to the 65+ voters, that will actually vote?

Interesting age skew:

Net 'right to leave':

18-24: -35
25-49: -12
50-64: +13
65+ : +37

A massive Remain majority for those of working age, who pay for the country.

Who'd a thunk it?

Two points on topic:
1. It wasn't really about economics though was it?
2. There was no mention of timeframe. I'm as dyed-in-the-wool a Brexiter as any. Even I accept that short term the EU may be able to inflict some economic pain on us for very daring to be so rude. Medium to long term we'll be streets ahead. This was, after all, a decision for the ages. Brexit is for life not just for Christmas.

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Not sure if this has already been posted. It's got some good info on the Brexit negotiating priorities of different EU countries, and also conveniently summaries some of the trade and migration statistics by country:

http://cicero-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Brexit-negotiations-The-View-from-the-EU.pdf

Very useful. Thanks.

Theuniondivvie said:

Heart of igneous rock etc.

https://twitter.com/AutonomScotland/status/786891910258520064

Except that's for one year only.

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Heart of igneous rock etc.

https://twitter.com/AutonomScotland/status/786891910258520064

Except that's for one year only.

Can the NHS struggle on for those 12 months?

I think May has got this right. They had a "once in a lifetime" vote on Scottish independence 2 years ago and they want another one already. If this fails they'll just keep coming up with excuses to call another one until they get the "right" result.

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Heart of igneous rock etc.

https://twitter.com/AutonomScotland/status/786891910258520064

Except that's for one year only.

Can the NHS struggle on for those 12 months?

Probably. Anyway, what's another £20bn on the national debt?

TheScreamingEagles said:

At least Nicola Sturgeon has got something right this week

Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP today warned they could torpedo Theresa May’s plans for more grammar schools.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sturgeon-in-threat-to-halt-may-s-grammar-school-plan-in-teacher-pay-row-a3369366.html

Anyone for EVEL-max?

Jobabob said:

CarlottaVance said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Do these Yougov figures overstate the number of 18-24 voters compared to the 65+ voters, that will actually vote?

Interesting age skew:

Net 'right to leave':

18-24: -35
25-49: -12
50-64: +13
65+ : +37

A massive Remain majority for those of working age, who pay for the country.

Who'd a thunk it?

Most of the over 65's will have spent 40 to 50 years working and paying taxes.

Alistair said:

JackW said:

New Hampshire - WBUR - Sample 501 - 10-12 Oct

Clinton 46 .. Trump 41

http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/10/14/poll-trump-clinton-new-hampshire

The NH polling seems to show quite a variable gap. I thought Dems were still campaigning there due to the senate race but maybe that are still worried a bit about the presidential?

The Senate and Gubernatorial races are very tight and POTUS just on the edge of interesting. Resources are not short in the state, so the Clinton campaign are being cautious.

Patrick said:

Two points on topic:
1. It wasn't really about economics though was it?
2. There was no mention of timeframe. I'm as dyed-in-the-wool a Brexiter as any. Even I accept that short term the EU may be able to inflict some economic pain on us for very daring to be so rude. Medium to long term we'll be streets ahead. This was, after all, a decision for the ages. Brexit is for life not just for Christmas.

Whilst I can understand all the political and emotional arguments for Brexit, the bit I don't see is why or how we will ever be "streets ahead" in terms of economic performance?

Our opt outs and non-membership of the Euro insulate us from those aspects of the EU that could potentially hinder our economic performance.

Our trading position outside the EU is going to be very exposed for many years, and even on a positive view of the trade agreement process it is going to be a lot of work and a long time just to get back to break even.

Our recent growth depends on immigration, as Boris well knows, and it will be a struggle to find an immigration solution that doesn't hinder our economy. Very best case is break even.

Outside the EU we will still have to comply with EU trading standards - just as Norway does and just as Canada follows all the US standards

I don't buy the Farage-type neo-liberal/de-regulation agenda, but even if you do, it would be remarkable if Brexit led to such politics in the UK - all the signs are that it is fuelling (or reflects) a desire for more statism and intervention.

And Brexit has already forced the government to abandon its deficit reduction plan, which both it and the general consensus previously viewed as essential to safeguard our economic future.

So where's the upside?

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

Jobabob said:

OldKingCole said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/786888284660260865

No because I say so, rarely turns out well!

I am really struggling to grasp May's thinking here

Politicians should stick to agreements?

If Sturgeon can blithely ignore the Edinburgh agreement, what's to stop her ignoring a referendum result?

The Edinburgh agreement says nothing about generations, once or otherwise.

It did say something about respecting the result.

Richard_Nabavi said:

I'm not sure why Mike says this YouGov survey shows that Remainers aren't reconciled to the result. It shows that they still think there will be economic damage, which is hardly a controversial point and in any case is different from not being reconciled to the result.

Fair point.

Jobabob said:

CarlottaVance said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Do these Yougov figures overstate the number of 18-24 voters compared to the 65+ voters, that will actually vote?

Interesting age skew:

Net 'right to leave':

18-24: -35
25-49: -12
50-64: +13
65+ : +37

A massive Remain majority for those of working age, who pay for the country.

Who'd a thunk it?

I don't see that. Of 18-24 year olds 68% are NOT in full time work. There is little doubt that age cohort is an immediate net drain on the country until later in life when able to pay student loans etc back.

Those who are most likely to be on highest tax rates are in the 50 to 64 category and are a Leave majority.

Finally you are aware pensioners pay tax too right? Or did your ignorance not cover that aspect.

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Heart of igneous rock etc.

https://twitter.com/AutonomScotland/status/786891910258520064

Except that's for one year only.

And is equivalent to what we would have been paying in that year had we stayed in.

Are the people who make these claims really that thick that they think these things won't be pointed out straight away.

Apparently.

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/786888284660260865

That is basically begging the SNP to hold a vote on having the Referendum for realsies and setting a date.

May then refuses?
Scotland then holds pseudo Referendum?

I don't get May's angle here.

The SNP needs a specific mandate for a new referendum. If it puts a specific referendum commitment in a manifesto for either the Holyrood or the UK election and then wins, there is no way that the government in Westminster could ignore that.

Sean_F said:

Jobabob said:

CarlottaVance said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Do these Yougov figures overstate the number of 18-24 voters compared to the 65+ voters, that will actually vote?

Interesting age skew:

Net 'right to leave':

18-24: -35
25-49: -12
50-64: +13
65+ : +37

A massive Remain majority for those of working age, who pay for the country.

Who'd a thunk it?

Most of the over 65's will have spent 40 to 50 years working and paying taxes.

Only to pull us out of the single market when they are no longer directly affected by the economic impact.

RobD said:

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

Jobabob said:

OldKingCole said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/786888284660260865

No because I say so, rarely turns out well!

I am really struggling to grasp May's thinking here

Politicians should stick to agreements?

If Sturgeon can blithely ignore the Edinburgh agreement, what's to stop her ignoring a referendum result?

The Edinburgh agreement says nothing about generations, once or otherwise.

It did say something about respecting the result.

And the result was respected until there was a major change in circumstances. The SNP said all along a Brexit vote would change things and quite right too when the No campaign said that Scotland needed to vote No to stay in the EU.

Time to settle this once and for all Quebec style.

Jobabob said:

Sean_F said:

Jobabob said:

CarlottaVance said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Do these Yougov figures overstate the number of 18-24 voters compared to the 65+ voters, that will actually vote?

Interesting age skew:

Net 'right to leave':

18-24: -35
25-49: -12
50-64: +13
65+ : +37

A massive Remain majority for those of working age, who pay for the country.

Who'd a thunk it?

Most of the over 65's will have spent 40 to 50 years working and paying taxes.

Only to pull us out of the single market when they are no longer directly affected by the economic impact.

With age comes wisdom.

Philip_Thompson said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

Jobabob said:

OldKingCole said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/786888284660260865

No because I say so, rarely turns out well!

I am really struggling to grasp May's thinking here

Politicians should stick to agreements?

If Sturgeon can blithely ignore the Edinburgh agreement, what's to stop her ignoring a referendum result?

The Edinburgh agreement says nothing about generations, once or otherwise.

It did say something about respecting the result.

And the result was respected until there was a major change in circumstances. The SNP said all along a Brexit vote would change things and quite right too when the No campaign said that Scotland needed to vote No to stay in the EU.

Time to settle this once and for all Quebec style.

The SNP also said stuff about 'generations', which was Alistair's point.

IanB2 said:

Jobabob said:

OldKingCole said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/786888284660260865

No because I say so, rarely turns out well!

I am really struggling to grasp May's thinking here

Probably cold politics. Those North of the Border that feel strongly against Independence will stick with, or switch to, Ruth. The majority pissed off with English intransigence will stick with or switch to the SNP. In the short run the losers are Labour and the LibDems.

Plus it's an extra distraction May doesn't need; Brexit is looking challenging enough already .

But it is playing with fire if it fuels desire for independence. Thwarting genuinely supported independence demands often doesn't end well.

Yes, I cannot see how telling the Scots they can't do something is in any way wise. Their national character is to push back against being bossed about by the English.

In any case, as has been noted on PB several times before, Scotland is constitutionally an equal partner in the Union. She has the right to leave that voluntary union at the time of her own choosing.

Sean_F said:

Jobabob said:

Sean_F said:

Jobabob said:

CarlottaVance said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Do these Yougov figures overstate the number of 18-24 voters compared to the 65+ voters, that will actually vote?

Interesting age skew:

Net 'right to leave':

18-24: -35
25-49: -12
50-64: +13
65+ : +37

A massive Remain majority for those of working age, who pay for the country.

Who'd a thunk it?

Most of the over 65's will have spent 40 to 50 years working and paying taxes.

Only to pull us out of the single market when they are no longer directly affected by the economic impact.

With age comes wisdom.

Not necessarily.

https://www.askideas.com/media/48/Donald-Trump-Making-Funny-Face-Photo.jpg

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I'm not sure why Mike says this YouGov survey shows that Remainers aren't reconciled to the result. It shows that they still think there will be economic damage, which is hardly a controversial point and in any case is different from not being reconciled to the result.

I thought it had been established that it doesn't matter what Remainers think, anyway.

Yes, after all, what are 16 million people going to do about it when the traitorous pinko subversives are LOCKED UP IN THE TOWER?

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I'm not sure why Mike says this YouGov survey shows that Remainers aren't reconciled to the result. It shows that they still think there will be economic damage, which is hardly a controversial point and in any case is different from not being reconciled to the result.

Fair point.

Not really. If you dig into the data and other questions asked, it appears that more people think leaving the EU is a bad idea now than on 23rd June - it's almost 50-50 among those who expressed a view.

Yougov steadily shows a lead of 1-4% in favour of those who think leaving the EU was the Right thing, compared to a small lead in favour of Remain, in the last week of the campaign, so it does look as though there has been a small shift to Leave since then.

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I'm not sure why Mike says this YouGov survey shows that Remainers aren't reconciled to the result. It shows that they still think there will be economic damage, which is hardly a controversial point and in any case is different from not being reconciled to the result.

Fair point.

Not really. If you dig into the data and other questions asked, it appears that more people think leaving the EU is a bad idea now than on 23rd June - it's almost 50-50 among those who expressed a view.

Yougov steadily shows a lead of 1-4% in favour of those who think leaving the EU was the Right thing, compared to a small lead in favour of Remain, in the last week of the campaign, so it does look as though there has been a small shift to Leave since then.

Go look at the data - and the comparison with the same questions last month. The trend is the other way.

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

Jobabob said:

CarlottaVance said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Do these Yougov figures overstate the number of 18-24 voters compared to the 65+ voters, that will actually vote?

Interesting age skew:

Net 'right to leave':

18-24: -35
25-49: -12
50-64: +13
65+ : +37

A massive Remain majority for those of working age, who pay for the country.

Who'd a thunk it?

Most of the over 65's will have spent 40 to 50 years working and paying taxes.

True, but that's not really the point, is it? They are now drawing on assets that they are relying upon the younger working population to generate.

The original point is that they are somehow, spongers, whose votes are less legitimate than younger age cohorts.

RobD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

Jobabob said:

OldKingCole said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/786888284660260865

No because I say so, rarely turns out well!

I am really struggling to grasp May's thinking here

Politicians should stick to agreements?

If Sturgeon can blithely ignore the Edinburgh agreement, what's to stop her ignoring a referendum result?

The Edinburgh agreement says nothing about generations, once or otherwise.

It did say something about respecting the result.

And the result was respected until there was a major change in circumstances. The SNP said all along a Brexit vote would change things and quite right too when the No campaign said that Scotland needed to vote No to stay in the EU.

Time to settle this once and for all Quebec style.

The SNP also said stuff about 'generations', which was Alistair's point.

Did anyone define how long a generation is? Since the last Scottish referendum we have voted to Leave the EU and my second daughter has been born. Her "generation" wasn't alive when we had the last vote.

Being reasonable there has been a major change to the facts on the ground.

Scott_P said:

@britainelects: Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 39%
No: 47%
(via BMG / 28 Sep - 04 Oct)

Good for Yes, undoubtedly.

Theuniondivvie said:

brokenwheel said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Heart of igneous rock etc.

https://twitter.com/AutonomScotland/status/786891910258520064

Why are you re-posting things that have been posted before as if it is a new thing? As rc1000 pointed out the EU owes us about 30bn in assets.

'Cos it annoys dicks?

A comment that says more about you.

Scott_P said:

@britainelects: Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 39%
No: 47%
(via BMG / 28 Sep - 04 Oct)

What will the SNP do when it loses a second time ?

Philip_Thompson said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

Jobabob said:

OldKingCole said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/786888284660260865

No because I say so, rarely turns out well!

I am really struggling to grasp May's thinking here

Politicians should stick to agreements?

If Sturgeon can blithely ignore the Edinburgh agreement, what's to stop her ignoring a referendum result?

The Edinburgh agreement says nothing about generations, once or otherwise.

It did say something about respecting the result.

And the result was respected until there was a major change in circumstances. The SNP said all along a Brexit vote would change things and quite right too when the No campaign said that Scotland needed to vote No to stay in the EU.

Time to settle this once and for all Quebec style.

Yes, I say bring it on. If the SNP loses this time then it's done, forever. A shame for those who want independence but I don't see how the fundamentals have changed not enough to swing 6 points from No to Yes, possibly more with low oil prices.

Both the A50 enabling act and SindyRef2 need to be pushed through. It will settle all arguments once and for all.

brokenwheel said:

Theuniondivvie said:

brokenwheel said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Heart of igneous rock etc.

https://twitter.com/AutonomScotland/status/786891910258520064

Why are you re-posting things that have been posted before as if it is a new thing? As rc1000 pointed out the EU owes us about 30bn in assets.

'Cos it annoys dicks?

A comment that says more about you.

Yep.
It says I like it when dicks get annoyed.

Mr. Enjineeya, can't speak for others, but my view is that we'll have economic turbulence over the short or medium term but that long term the economy is better served out of the EU.