Question for those who may know (rcs perhaps). If we assume QE debt is never going to be repaid then.what is our real level of government debt excluding QE debt?
I have a chart in my excellent Debt & Delusion piece...
Here you go:
Privately Held Debt Japan 177 Italy 117 USA 88 Spain 83 France 80 UK 67 Germany 60
(As percentage of GDP)
Thank you. 67% looks a lot less scary than the 90% commonly referred to. If we could ever run a surplus for a few good years of growth it would be quite possible to get that back to a manageable figure.
To be honest, if we string together a period of 2.5% GDP growth, 2.5% inflation, no budget deficit, then we'll get back down to 50% in no time at all. (I.e., under a decade.)
That's three big ifs for a decade.
If the currency stays down then that should bring back inflation. Just need to keep fingers crossed that it doesn't run too far over 3%. Growth doable with pro-business policies, including tax cuts. It's that damned deficit that we don't seem to be able to solve, but if gilt yields continue to rise then the Government's hand may be forced.
The two big ticket items in the Government budget are Pensions and the NHS, both of which are not so much ring-fenced as defended by concentric battlements. There may be trouble ahead...
That presumes that Turkey and its various governments have been stupid enough not to know the game. They used a potential EU membership for their own ends, especially diplomatic, and to a certain extent against their own civil service.
It's been a dance. Both sides know the moves, and both sides know that it will not lead to marriage. But the appearance of the dance is to the advantage of both sides, at least until now.
The problem is if you partake in the dance you can't then protest naivety when someone says that you've been dancing. There is a have cake and eat it too delusion by those quite content to have this dance go along and then protest angrily at it being pointed out.
There is a naivety in those who point out that they're dancing, as if the participants did not know it.
The Leave campaign pointed out to the public that the dance was happening only for Remain to cry foul. "Yes but we never really meant it to be taken seriously" is a terrible counter argument.
Question for those who may know (rcs perhaps). If we assume QE debt is never going to be repaid then.what is our real level of government debt excluding QE debt?
I have a chart in my excellent Debt & Delusion piece...
Here you go:
Privately Held Debt Japan 177 Italy 117 USA 88 Spain 83 France 80 UK 67 Germany 60
(As percentage of GDP)
Thank you. 67% looks a lot less scary than the 90% commonly referred to. If we could ever run a surplus for a few good years of growth it would be quite possible to get that back to a manageable figure.
To be honest, if we string together a period of 2.5% GDP growth, 2.5% inflation, no budget deficit, then we'll get back down to 50% in no time at all. (I.e., under a decade.)
That's three big ifs for a decade.
If the currency stays down then that should bring back inflation. Just need to keep fingers crossed that it doesn't run too far over 3%. Growth doable with pro-business policies, including tax cuts. It's that damned deficit that we don't seem to be able to solve, but if gilt yields continue to rise then the Government's hand may be forced.
The two big ticket items in the Government budget are Pensions and the NHS, both of which are not so much ring-fenced as defended by concentric battlements. There may be trouble ahead...
Don't worry, David herdson knows for sure that it will all be fine.
I wonder what show she could possible be involved with...the "Not The Great British Bake-off, its totally different honest" show, where contestants do baking in a tent every week.
That presumes that Turkey and its various governments have been stupid enough not to know the game. They used a potential EU membership for their own ends, especially diplomatic, and to a certain extent against their own civil service.
It's been a dance. Both sides know the moves, and both sides know that it will not lead to marriage. But the appearance of the dance is to the advantage of both sides, at least until now.
The problem is if you partake in the dance you can't then protest naivety when someone says that you've been dancing. There is a have cake and eat it too delusion by those quite content to have this dance go along and then protest angrily at it being pointed out.
There is a naivety in those who point out that they're dancing, as if the participants did not know it.
The Leave campaign pointed out to the public that the dance was happening only for Remain to cry foul. "Yes but we never really meant it to be taken seriously" is a terrible counter argument.
What?
Leave were saying the dance would inevitably lead to marriage this afternoon, and that we'd be inundated with hordes of the sprogs of that marriage tomorrow.
Remain were saying that the dance had already gone on for decades, and had scarcely got past the first movement.
Question for those who may know (rcs perhaps). If we assume QE debt is never going to be repaid then.what is our real level of government debt excluding QE debt?
I have a chart in my excellent Debt & Delusion piece...
Here you go:
Privately Held Debt Japan 177 Italy 117 USA 88 Spain 83 France 80 UK 67 Germany 60
(As percentage of GDP)
Thank you. 67% looks a lot less scary than the 90% commonly referred to. If we could ever run a surplus for a few good years of growth it would be quite possible to get that back to a manageable figure.
To be honest, if we string together a period of 2.5% GDP growth, 2.5% inflation, no budget deficit, then we'll get back down to 50% in no time at all. (I.e., under a decade.)
That's three big ifs for a decade.
But the issue is surely that getting to 2.5% may prove somewhat easier than stopping at 2.5%?
Not really. The Bank is warning that inflation "could" reach 3% by the end of next year. Sounds like a worst realistic case. If the worst case is barely over 2.5% the idea of hyperinflation is very fanciful.
That presumes that Turkey and its various governments have been stupid enough not to know the game. They used a potential EU membership for their own ends, especially diplomatic, and to a certain extent against their own civil service.
It's been a dance. Both sides know the moves, and both sides know that it will not lead to marriage. But the appearance of the dance is to the advantage of both sides, at least until now.
The problem is if you partake in the dance you can't then protest naivety when someone says that you've been dancing. There is a have cake and eat it too delusion by those quite content to have this dance go along and then protest angrily at it being pointed out.
There is a naivety in those who point out that they're dancing, as if the participants did not know it.
The Leave campaign pointed out to the public that the dance was happening only for Remain to cry foul. "Yes but we never really meant it to be taken seriously" is a terrible counter argument.
What?
Leave were saying the dance would inevitably lead to marriage this afternoon, and that we'd be inundated with hordes of the sprogs of that marriage tomorrow.
Remain were saying that the dance had already gone on for decades, and had scarcely got past the first movement.
Remain were right. Leave were wrong. Again.
You are really mixing your metaphors. If accession is marriage then Turkey was already betrothed.
Question for those who may know (rcs perhaps). If we assume QE debt is never going to be repaid then.what is our real level of government debt excluding QE debt?
I have a chart in my excellent Debt & Delusion piece...
Here you go:
Privately Held Debt Japan 177 Italy 117 USA 88 Spain 83 France 80 UK 67 Germany 60
(As percentage of GDP)
Thank you. 67% looks a lot less scary than the 90% commonly referred to. If we could ever run a surplus for a few good years of growth it would be quite possible to get that back to a manageable figure.
To be honest, if we string together a period of 2.5% GDP growth, 2.5% inflation, no budget deficit, then we'll get back down to 50% in no time at all. (I.e., under a decade.)
That's three big ifs for a decade.
But the issue is surely that getting to 2.5% may prove somewhat easier than stopping at 2.5%?
Not really. The Bank is warning that inflation "could" reach 3% by the end of next year. Sounds like a worst realistic case. If the worst case is barely over 2.5% the idea of hyperinflation is very fanciful.
Just something else for remainers to hyper-ventilate about.
That presumes that Turkey and its various governments have been stupid enough not to know the game. They used a potential EU membership for their own ends, especially diplomatic, and to a certain extent against their own civil service.
It's been a dance. Both sides know the moves, and both sides know that it will not lead to marriage. But the appearance of the dance is to the advantage of both sides, at least until now.
The problem is if you partake in the dance you can't then protest naivety when someone says that you've been dancing. There is a have cake and eat it too delusion by those quite content to have this dance go along and then protest angrily at it being pointed out.
There is a naivety in those who point out that they're dancing, as if the participants did not know it.
The Leave campaign pointed out to the public that the dance was happening only for Remain to cry foul. "Yes but we never really meant it to be taken seriously" is a terrible counter argument.
What?
Leave were saying the dance would inevitably lead to marriage this afternoon, and that we'd be inundated with hordes of the sprogs of that marriage tomorrow.
Remain were saying that the dance had already gone on for decades, and had scarcely got past the first movement.
Remain were right. Leave were wrong. Again.
You are really mixing your metaphors. If accession is marriage then Turkey was already betrothed.
Not really: the metaphor breaks down as the EU was betrothed to many others during that period.
Question for those who may know (rcs perhaps). If we assume QE debt is never going to be repaid then.what is our real level of government debt excluding QE debt?
I have a chart in my excellent Debt & Delusion piece...
Here you go:
Privately Held Debt Japan 177 Italy 117 USA 88 Spain 83 France 80 UK 67 Germany 60
(As percentage of GDP)
Thank you. 67% looks a lot less scary than the 90% commonly referred to. If we could ever run a surplus for a few good years of growth it would be quite possible to get that back to a manageable figure.
To be honest, if we string together a period of 2.5% GDP growth, 2.5% inflation, no budget deficit, then we'll get back down to 50% in no time at all. (I.e., under a decade.)
That's three big ifs for a decade.
But the issue is surely that getting to 2.5% may prove somewhat easier than stopping at 2.5%?
Not really. The Bank is warning that inflation "could" reach 3% by the end of next year. Sounds like a worst realistic case. If the worst case is barely over 2.5% the idea of hyperinflation is very fanciful.
Just something else for remainers to hyper-ventilate about.
Fine, provided that it doesn't get too much higher. Indeed, if we get a couple of years of inflation at 3% or so coupled with flatlining incomes, this should help to substantially decrease the current account deficit by reducing demand for imported goods. The country has been living beyond its means, and the longer that the correction is delayed the more painful it is eventually liable to be.
The real challenge for the Government in all of this is to try to find a way to cushion the effect of the resultant squeeze in living standards upon the working poor. They - especially those who have already defected from Labour to Ukip - are a key target group for the Prime Minister in looking to expand the Tory electoral coalition. She doesn't want them sticking with Ukip (or worse, going back to Labour again) in disgust.
(Anorak said: This is a fabulous take-down of generation snowflake and the case-of-the-vapours Brexit caused among so many...)
Brilliant. Of course none of these are on PB.
Q: What are the three best things about the EU
A from SWP type: (1)The NHS
ROTFL
Wtih people that thick, no wonder they pushed the "Vote Remain, Otherwise Inter-railing will be banned" angle.
The other two of the three reasons were that Brexit would mean no more free air travel to France and being in the EU means everyone has the same opinion
And the remainers sneer at Brexit voters for being thick lol
That presumes that Turkey and its various governments have been stupid enough not to know the game. They used a potential EU membership for their own ends, especially diplomatic, and to a certain extent against their own civil service.
It's been a dance. Both sides know the moves, and both sides know that it will not lead to marriage. But the appearance of the dance is to the advantage of both sides, at least until now.
The problem is if you partake in the dance you can't then protest naivety when someone says that you've been dancing. There is a have cake and eat it too delusion by those quite content to have this dance go along and then protest angrily at it being pointed out.
There is a naivety in those who point out that they're dancing, as if the participants did not know it.
The Leave campaign pointed out to the public that the dance was happening only for Remain to cry foul. "Yes but we never really meant it to be taken seriously" is a terrible counter argument.
What?
Leave were saying the dance would inevitably lead to marriage this afternoon, and that we'd be inundated with hordes of the sprogs of that marriage tomorrow.
Remain were saying that the dance had already gone on for decades, and had scarcely got past the first movement.
Remain were right. Leave were wrong. Again.
You mean that the missus is forgiving, the golf club doesn't want to lose our contribution to the club team, and our office colleagues suddenly enjoy the smelly food?
In the run up to the vote, we had lots of experts - people with years of study and experience of the relevant fields - spell out for us less informed mortals the myriad risks of Brexit.'
Unfortunately they were the same people that gave us the same scare stories if we didn't join the euro (loss of 3 million jobs et al) and of course were proved to be completely wrong.
Strange that we didn't hear anything from these same experts in the run-up to the 2007 banking crash.
And of course back in the 90's we had experts predicting Armageddon if we didn't join the ERM, that went well.
Comments
The two big ticket items in the Government budget are Pensions and the NHS, both of which are not so much ring-fenced as defended by concentric battlements. There may be trouble ahead...
A from SWP type: (1)The NHS
Leave were saying the dance would inevitably lead to marriage this afternoon, and that we'd be inundated with hordes of the sprogs of that marriage tomorrow.
Remain were saying that the dance had already gone on for decades, and had scarcely got past the first movement.
Remain were right. Leave were wrong. Again.
On a visit to Germany, he said: "I don't know which party my wife belongs to, but she belongs to my kitchen and my living room and the other room."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-37659863
The Nigerian Godfrey Bloom...
But my point remains.
The real challenge for the Government in all of this is to try to find a way to cushion the effect of the resultant squeeze in living standards upon the working poor. They - especially those who have already defected from Labour to Ukip - are a key target group for the Prime Minister in looking to expand the Tory electoral coalition. She doesn't want them sticking with Ukip (or worse, going back to Labour again) in disgust.
And the remainers sneer at Brexit voters for being thick lol
'Absolutely.
In the run up to the vote, we had lots of experts - people with years of study and experience of the relevant fields - spell out for us less informed mortals the myriad risks of Brexit.'
Unfortunately they were the same people that gave us the same scare stories if we didn't join the euro (loss of 3 million jobs et al) and of course were proved to be completely wrong.
Strange that we didn't hear anything from these same experts in the run-up to the 2007 banking crash.
And of course back in the 90's we had experts predicting Armageddon if we didn't join the ERM, that went well.