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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov polling finds REMAIN voters far from being reconciled to leaving EU
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Mind you PB leavers said prior to June 23rd we wouldn't get a Hard Brexit.
PB Leavers, wrong then, wrong now.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/786882161752276992
Isn't it being said now the we will negotiate our own trade deals, Leave the ECJ and control immigration? Noticeably a complete halt to contributions was not in May's speech.
So Brexit today is currently softer than what was promised prior to June 23.
No because I say so, rarely turns out well!
EDIT: JINX
May then refuses?
Scotland then holds pseudo Referendum?
I don't get May's angle here.
That said, of course the circumstances of such a second vote would influence the vote and I fully recognise the Winchester phenomenon.
Nevertheless the view that after the vote most people now think leaving the EU is a good idea appears to be challenged by the polling.
L’Oreal to Be ‘Cautious’ on U.K. Price Hikes After Pound’s Slump
Because it's not worth it.
No thread on the Conservative Conference bounce and 14 point lead versus Labour, or May's commanding 'Best PM' scores?
Funny that.....
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/786852441711120384
Plus Mike and I aren't writing any threads on VI polls until we've read Justin's contribution on why this poll shows Labour on course to win in 2020
Do you think OGH & TSE missed those?
In 12 ICM polls in 1998, Labour's lead was between 13 and 25 points. Just one of them was under 15. In 1998 Labour lost 197 council seats.
As an indicator of the future GE of 2001, council seat loss in 1998 was a very poor indicator.
Clinton 46 .. Trump 41
http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/10/14/poll-trump-clinton-new-hampshire
Net 'right to leave':
18-24: -35
25-49: -12
50-64: +13
65+ : +37
https://youtu.be/BLCVaTPsu4A
If Sturgeon can blithely ignore the Edinburgh agreement, what's to stop her ignoring a referendum result?
Not sure if this link has already been posted. It's got some good info on the Brexit negotiating priorities of different EU countries, and also conveniently summaries some of the trade and migration statistics by country:
http://cicero-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Brexit-negotiations-The-View-from-the-EU.pdf
Plus it's an extra distraction May doesn't need; Brexit is looking challenging enough already .
But it is playing with fire if it fuels desire for independence. Thwarting genuinely supported independence demands often doesn't end well.
Who'd a thunk it?
https://twitter.com/AutonomScotland/status/786891910258520064
1. It wasn't really about economics though was it?
2. There was no mention of timeframe. I'm as dyed-in-the-wool a Brexiter as any. Even I accept that short term the EU may be able to inflict some economic pain on us for very daring to be so rude. Medium to long term we'll be streets ahead. This was, after all, a decision for the ages. Brexit is for life not just for Christmas.
Very useful. Thanks.
Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP today warned they could torpedo Theresa May’s plans for more grammar schools.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sturgeon-in-threat-to-halt-may-s-grammar-school-plan-in-teacher-pay-row-a3369366.html
A massive Leave majority for those who have contributed longest to this country, and with the most experience.
"could"
Our opt outs and non-membership of the Euro insulate us from those aspects of the EU that could potentially hinder our economic performance.
Our trading position outside the EU is going to be very exposed for many years, and even on a positive view of the trade agreement process it is going to be a lot of work and a long time just to get back to break even.
Our recent growth depends on immigration, as Boris well knows, and it will be a struggle to find an immigration solution that doesn't hinder our economy. Very best case is break even.
Outside the EU we will still have to comply with EU trading standards - just as Norway does and just as Canada follows all the US standards
I don't buy the Farage-type neo-liberal/de-regulation agenda, but even if you do, it would be remarkable if Brexit led to such politics in the UK - all the signs are that it is fuelling (or reflects) a desire for more statism and intervention.
And Brexit has already forced the government to abandon its deficit reduction plan, which both it and the general consensus previously viewed as essential to safeguard our economic future.
So where's the upside?
Are the people who make these claims really that thick that they think these things won't be pointed out straight away.
Those who are most likely to be on highest tax rates are in the 50 to 64 category and are a Leave majority.
Finally you are aware pensioners pay tax too right? Or did your ignorance not cover that aspect.
Spain: Spain will not play as signicant a role in exit negotiations as it should, due to domestic distractions, however it will seek to prioritise sovereign disputes around Gibraltar and undermine any attempts by parts of the UK to negotiate varying levels of EU membership.
Time to settle this once and for all Quebec style.
In any case, as has been noted on PB several times before, Scotland is constitutionally an equal partner in the Union. She has the right to leave that voluntary union at the time of her own choosing.
https://www.askideas.com/media/48/Donald-Trump-Making-Funny-Face-Photo.jpg
Yes: 39%
No: 47%
(via BMG / 28 Sep - 04 Oct)
Being reasonable there has been a major change to the facts on the ground.
There is undoubtedly a strong case for another referendum. There have been some big material changes.
F1: Hulkenberg set to join Renault. Not officially announced, but that's expected presently:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37654765
So, your point is...?
And it is silly trying to portray polling as a science. If you think it is because psephology has ology in it, say hello to phrenology and astrology.
It does tend to imply that there'll be a lot of angry Leavers if things don't pan out well economically after leaving the EU.
Both the A50 enabling act and SindyRef2 need to be pushed through. It will settle all arguments once and for all.
It says I like it when dicks get annoyed.