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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Initial WH2016 early voting analysis suggests that fewer Regis

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  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Y0kel said:

    As regards further rumbles to come, the next angle of attack against Trump perhaps is just why the guy is in the Russians' pocket.

    makes sense with a foreign policy debate. Its incredibly obvious putin and trump are in cahoots
  • It's OK, it's risen to £420m because of the drop in sterling, so there's plenty for everyone.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Newsnight:

    Average family in Ohio is $10,000 worse off than in the year 2000.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm looking forward to the pawkier Leavers impatiently explaining again why Theresa May's majority is in reality impregnable.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The Faisal Islam Obsession. :smiley:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited October 2016
    Scott_P said:
    OK, Commons/Lords votes down A50, Gives Theresa the perfect "crisis" to have an emergency election... In which she wins a landslide.

    #LetsDoThis
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/785958786490044416

    so 4 polls had clinton winning the debate
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Y0kel said:

    That's nothing.
    Ah - the Black Knight Syndrome.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    AndyJS said:

    Newsnight:

    Average family in Ohio is $10,000 worse off than in the year 2000.

    If Bush, Obama, and continuity Clinton delivered that you might in desperation vote for the loudmouth idiot who can blow the whole system apart.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    GIN1138 said:


    OK, Commons/Lords votes down A50, Gives Theresa the perfect "crisis" to have an emergency election... In which she wins a landslide.

    #LetsDoThis

    As a phenomenon, it's so similar to Labour post Indy 2014 and New Labour Post Corbyn 2015.

    The loss just doesn't seem to permeate. They need to lose again, and worse for it to sink in.
  • For those obsessed about Independents

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/785961539048046592
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    619 said:

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/785958786490044416

    so 4 polls had clinton winning the debate

    Speedy said Trump won the debate. That's the main thing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    MaxPB said:

    @Mortimer on the idea of a technocracy, there are a few issues with it but I think the main one is that it trades long term stability for short term economic gain....

    Technocratic government has too many downsides, both political and economic, plus it starts the gun on revolutionary action. Our democracy may have its flaws and is sometimes prone to an overreaction (see the PM on Brexit), but it is preferable to handing over the keys of Westminster to a bunch of unelected commissioners who are picked on who knows what criteria.

    I'm not sure The Economist is in a happy place at the moment. It's not a journal I read any more (long before Brexit tbh). If they are advocating technocratic government for western nations then it shows just how rotten they have become. Democracy has produced results they don't like so now they look to restrict democracy. Really, they should be looking at the underlying causes behind the dissatisfaction of so many lower and middle income people in developed nations. Let me put it this way, I'm at the top of the income scale and my personal income has doubled over the last three years. I don't believe economics is a zero sum game, but clearly the prosperity of people at the top of the income scale is causing issues at the lower end. Technocratic government which locks up dissenters (the only way to keep everyone in line) is not the answer.

    Thanks Max - from a political POV we're entirely on the same wavelength. My gut feeling on economics was that technocracy was a poor master, but it is so far away from my knowledge that your perspective is much appreciated.

    I don't think the Economist is to blame for his position per se - but instead think that he likes the easy analysis he reads in it. I've tried to argue that when there are articles about the fine art industry, something I know a little about, the pieces often seem to make too many assumptions and ask/answer the wrong questions. But then he doesn't quite understand politics in action (for example he doesn't think that there should be a mechanism for the reduction/forgiveness of personal debt, and argues for technocracy, but thinks he is a social democract), but sees the world as an economic problem to be solved and thinks that putting clever people in charge of it would get around the problem of pandering to voters. It is so abhorrent an idea to me that I have to rein myself in when discussing...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    I've been a Tory long before Dave and George became MPs, let alone leaders.

    One of the reasons I'm a Tory is that I'm a passionate believer in free trade, just like Thatcher was.

    Am loving that many leave Tories at conference last week agreed with me.
    I think we are all struggling with our political identities in these times. I've always been a solid, centre left, socialist.....I don't have a home at the minute......
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    619 said:

    makes sense with a foreign policy debate. Its incredibly obvious putin and trump are in cahoots
    Trump's use of a doctored Wikileaks e-mail was shameful.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    But how many are Shy Trumpers???
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    For those obsessed about Independents

    I thought they had closed down?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Front page of The Times, - Liam Byrne was ready to throw himself over a cliff because of the there is no money letter

    Eh?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,306
    edited October 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Newsnight:

    Average family in Ohio is $10,000 worse off than in the year 2000.

    Average family in UK is £5,000pa worse off since June 23rd 2016

    (it's a bit top-of-head this, but assuming a household with two salaries, total £25Kpa and a 20% drop in GBP. YMMV)

    [edit: gbp, not gdp. Yikes!]
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    God lift us up where we belong:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=R8Wde1fFvPg
  • chestnut said:

    The Faisal Islam Obsession. :smiley:

    He really is so biased against leave his reports are becoming his own project fear and we know how that ended.

    We also know that there is a majority in Parliament intent on taking down the referendum but I believe the fury of the Nation if it happened would see a terrible revenge against those mps, Scotland excluded
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,306

    It's OK, it's risen to £420m because of the drop in sterling, so there's plenty for everyone.
    Um, the £350 million (gross, not net...but you know this) is in GBP already. The GBP-GBP exchange rate is holding stable at £1=£1. Amazing, I know...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    viewcode said:

    Um, the £350 million (gross, not net...but you know this) is in GBP already. The GBP-GBP exchange rate is holding stable at £1=£1. Amazing, I know...
    EU membership dues are in Euros, presumably?
  • viewcode said:

    Average family in UK is £5,000pa worse off since June 23rd 2016

    (it's a bit top-of-head this, but assuming a household with two salaries, total £25Kpa and a 20% drop in GBP. YMMV)

    [edit: gbp, not gdp. Yikes!]
    Um, The GBP-GBP exchange rate is holding stable at £1=£1. Amazing, I know... But you knew this already.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Alistair said:

    Trump's use of a doctored Wikileaks e-mail was shameful.
    almost as shameful as plato's use of it.

    Trump has no shame!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    tyson said:

    I think we are all struggling with our political identities in these times. I've always been a solid, centre left, socialist.....I don't have a home at the minute......
    There are many homeless.

    Those of us who are internationalist, open, liberal types have no home.

  • viewcode said:

    Average family in UK is £5,000pa worse off since June 23rd 2016

    (it's a bit top-of-head this, but assuming a household with two salaries, total £25Kpa and a 20% drop in GBP. YMMV)

    [edit: gbp, not gdp. Yikes!]
    Why would you calculate this on the basis of the forex markets rather than purchasing power parity? (Similar for all the claims about the UK economy as a whole becoming several percent smaller overnight. I'm not sure if people are doing it as a back-of-the-envelope amusement, effectively a kind of joke, or whether they genuinely believe the answers are economically literate and deeply meaningful. Difficult to judge the tone online.)
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    God lift us up where we belong:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=R8Wde1fFvPg

    LOL!
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Scott_P said:
    That makes no sense. The motion doesn't ask for a vote.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    God lift us up where we belong:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=R8Wde1fFvPg

    LOL

    You are however confusing two Jennifer Warnes duets - this is (I've Had) The Time of my Life (with Bill Medley rather than Joe Cocker)
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    There are ooodles too many independents in their sample.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    He really is so biased against leave his reports are becoming his own project fear and we know how that ended.

    We also know that there is a majority in Parliament intent on taking down the referendum but I believe the fury of the Nation if it happened would see a terrible revenge against those mps, Scotland excluded
    I think ContinuityRemain sniff blood on the Single Market.

    The premise is that they respect the outcome of the vote. In reality, they are hoping that political pressure - combined with that of the market movement recently on Sterling - can force the Government to massively dilute Brexit to occurring in name only.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,306
    Travelex has a 45-day buyback scheme where they buyback currency at the original rate (https://www.travelex.co.uk/services/buy-back-guarantee ). I'm getting a taxi to their nearest office at the airport tomorrow to convert £5K to USD. Before I go, is there a catch I'm not seeing?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited October 2016
    Mortimer said:

    EU membership dues are in Euros, presumably?
    They come from a mixture of duties on imports from outside the EU, a percentage of VAT receipts and a contribution from each country based on its GNI. The first two should be immune from exchange rate fluctuations. The last I am guessing will be fixed in Euros each year so there will be a lag as the exchange rates fluctuate over the rest of the year before righting itself at the beginning of the next financial year.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    viewcode said:

    Travelex has a 45-day buyback scheme where they buyback currency at the original rate (https://www.travelex.co.uk/services/buy-back-guarantee ). I'm getting a taxi to their nearest office at the airport tomorrow to convert £5K to USD. Before I go, is there a catch I'm not seeing?

    https://www.travelex.co.uk/services/buy-back-guarantee/buy-back-guarantee-terms-conditions

    8. Travelex reserves the right to change the terms of or withdraw Buy Back Guarantee at any time and with immediate effect, without liability to you.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    I've been a Tory long before Dave and George became MPs, let alone leaders.

    One of the reasons I'm a Tory is that I'm a passionate believer in free trade, just like Thatcher was.

    Am loving that many leave Tories at conference last week agreed with me.
    I'm struggling to understand what form your Conservatism takes to differentiate it from New Labour other than balancing the books, and having slightly a lower tax burden for higher earners.

    I presume it's not all about the money, but you're not going out of your way to make me feel much of an affinity with you at the moment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Scott_P said:
    I don't have Richard Nabavi's comments search skills, but I also predicted this.

    The Government will compromise on EU budget contributions. The critical political circle that must be squared is services access for immigration control.
  • I think ContinuityRemain sniff blood on the Single Market.

    The premise is that they respect the outcome of the vote. In reality, they are hoping that political pressure - combined with that of the market movement recently on Sterling - can force the Government to massively dilute Brexit to occurring in name only.
    You could be right but delaying A50 is unacceptable. We need to get on with it and if I was TM I would serve it in January 2017
  • I don't have Richard Nabavi's comments search skills, but I also predicted this.

    The Government will compromise on EU budget contributions. The critical political circle that must be squared is services access for immigration control.
    Much more saleable if EU contributions are counted towards the 0.7% overseas aid.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,306

    Why would you calculate this on the basis of the forex markets rather than purchasing power parity? (Similar for all the claims about the UK economy as a whole becoming several percent smaller overnight. I'm not sure if people are doing it as a back-of-the-envelope amusement, effectively a kind of joke, or whether they genuinely believe the answers are economically literate and deeply meaningful. Difficult to judge the tone online.)
    A longstanding conviction that forex changes are *eventually* reflected in purchasing parity and that any disparities can be explained by differential growth whilst the effects work their way through. A floating exchange rate is a shock absorber, not an impenetrable force field.

    As for seriousness: it was more illustrative than literal (although you must admit it is rather stark)
  • I'm struggling to understand what form your Conservatism takes to differentiate it from New Labour other than balancing the books, and having slightly a lower tax burden for higher earners.
    I presume it's not all about the money, but you're not going out of your way to make me feel much of an affinity with you at the moment.
    Semi-detached like Biffen?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016

    I think ContinuityRemain sniff blood on the Single Market.

    The premise is that they respect the outcome of the vote. In reality, they are hoping that political pressure - combined with that of the market movement recently on Sterling - can force the Government to massively dilute Brexit to occurring in name only.
    You really do want to pull up the drawbridge and withdraw completely from the world.

    Anything less would be an unsatisfactory brexit in your eyes.

    Astonishing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Pong said:

    You really do want to pull up the drawbridge.

    Astonishing.
    No I don't. Please withdraw that remark.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,306
    Pong said:

    https://www.travelex.co.uk/services/buy-back-guarantee/buy-back-guarantee-terms-conditions

    8. Travelex reserves the right to change the terms of or withdraw Buy Back Guarantee at any time and with immediate effect, without liability to you.
    IT'S NEVER BLOODY EASY, IS IT? CHRIST!

    Dammit, I think I'm going to have to do it anyway...:-(
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    Semi-detached like Biffen?
    John Biffen was an arch-eurosceptic and called it right from day one, voting against Britain's entry into the EEC in 1972.

    A very clever man, and one of my heroes.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,306

    You could be right but delaying A50 is unacceptable. We need to get on with it and if I was TM I would serve it in January 2017
    It may be mischevious to remind you, but I wanted to serve it the day after the referendum. And the longer this goes on, I suspect I was right...
  • Much more saleable if EU contributions are counted towards the 0.7% overseas aid.
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/736182717059072001
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    You could be right but delaying A50 is unacceptable. We need to get on with it and if I was TM I would serve it in January 2017
    The immediate priority for the Government is stabilising the macroeconomics and markets with a mood-music and hard policy budget statement by Hammond in the next month that reassures.

    I expect there will be a lot of leaking, by all interested parties, of bits and pieces of the Government's true EU negotiating position over the next 5 months on Article 50, prior to it being served.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited October 2016
    Pong said:

    https://www.travelex.co.uk/services/buy-back-guarantee/buy-back-guarantee-terms-conditions

    8. Travelex reserves the right to change the terms of or withdraw Buy Back Guarantee at any time and with immediate effect, without liability to you.
    I wonder if that's enforceable? If it got to court I suspect it would be struck down as an unfair contract term. You can't really call a "guarantee" in huge type and then have a clause saying we don't commit to anything at all and it will on our whim whether we buy back.
  • Pong said:

    You really do want to pull up the drawbridge and withdraw completely from the world.

    Anything less would be an unsatisfactory brexit in your eyes.

    Astonishing.
    That is a classic remainer comment - no one is pulling up any drawbridge. You should read the deal just done with China to increase weekly flights to 100 each way with no limit on cargo flights. They also want to invest in the City and infrastructure creating tens of thousands of jobs
  • murali_s said:

    The shit is beginning to hit the fan folks...

    http://news.sky.com/story/fuel-prices-to-soar-by-5p-a-litre-within-weeks-after-pound-slump-10612999

    Inflation is going to be a huge political hot potato over the next year or so ...

    No it isn't. Current inflation rate is 0.6%. It has a very long way to rise to reach the target BoE of 2% and even then it can rise substantially more before anyone would bat an eyelid.

    And given that interest rates are at historic lows the BoE has huge scope to intervene if the interest rate did begin to cause concern.

    A 5p rise in petrol prices is not even registering at the moment with oil prices being so low.
  • viewcode said:

    Average family in UK is £5,000pa worse off since June 23rd 2016

    (it's a bit top-of-head this, but assuming a household with two salaries, total £25Kpa and a 20% drop in GBP. YMMV)

    [edit: gbp, not gdp. Yikes!]
    Do you actually believe that everything a household buys is subject to exchange rate fluctuations?
  • viewcode said:

    It may be mischevious to remind you, but I wanted to serve it the day after the referendum. And the longer this goes on, I suspect I was right...
    That's not mischevious - it seems now that it would have been the sensible thing to have done and that is why it needs early 2017 enactment
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,306
    FF43 said:

    I wonder if that's enforceable? If it got to court I suspect it would be struck down as an unfair contract term. You can't really call a "guarantee" in huge type and then have a clause saying we don't commit to anything at all and it will on our whim whether we buy back.
    I always work on the assumption that the one who has the biggest lawyer wins.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844

    The Telegraph: The City exodus is already happening. It just doesn’t look like you expect it to. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIwn8nG9C8

    This article seems pretty much accurate from my perspective - I work in the relocation industry, our largest client sector is financial services, there's no talk of increased relocation opportunities in the coming years , certainly not due to brexit. But there are more inquiries / discussions about local hires, and new offices to be opened in europe. I don't think hard brexit will lead to a mass exodus, but just a loss of future jobs.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Pong said:

    He can.

    It's not very likely, though.

    He has perhaps a 10-15% chance.
    Not that long ago I thought that the 'forces of brexit' + republican loyalty + hatred of clinton, could do it for Trump, and I still believe he could have won this - the movement is there and ready, his policies haven't stopped him, but he has blocked himself. He's basically thrown away the chance to be president, and you almost have to wonder if it's being done on purpose at this point! But he's probably too narcissistic for that.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,306

    Do you actually believe that everything a household buys is subject to exchange rate fluctuations?
    See my answer to MyBurningEars below, although I acknowledge it's a minority view
  • The biggest loonies are those who thought Brexit would be just a swift move to EEA membership with no economic shock at all.
    Nope the real dangerous lunatics are those like you who are so utterly desperate for Brexit to fail they will cheer absolutely anything that looks remotely like bad news for the UK. They are the same people who were willing to sell the country out to the EU no matter how bad the deal and who are still frantically trying to find some way to overturn the referendum result. Utter scum.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    viewcode said:

    I always work on the assumption that the one who has the biggest lawyer wins.
    Not necessarily, if they know it's dodgy legally. They may mark up a ,£200 loss say on your £5000 as a cost of doing business if you take them to the small claims court. Few enough people do so that cost overall is manageable and the guarantee is a good marketing tool for them.
  • viewcode said:

    See my answer to MyBurningEars below, although I acknowledge it's a minority view
    Minority view - you mean like REMAIN on June 23rd?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Nope the real dangerous lunatics are those like you who are so utterly desperate for Brexit to fail they will cheer absolutely anything that looks remotely like bad news for the UK. They are the same people who were willing to sell the country out to the EU no matter how bad the deal and who are still frantically trying to find some way to overturn the referendum result. Utter scum.

    Turn them in...

    https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/785974007338307584
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited October 2016
    I'm confused by all the shifting categories.

    Are ContinuityRemain and the Bremoaners the same people, and how do they differ from the Leavers on here who (before the referendum) advocated the EEA option?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,306

    Minority view - you mean like REMAIN on June 23rd?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJxCdh1Ps48
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,306
    FF43 said:

    Not necessarily, if they know it's dodgy legally. They may mark up a ,£200 loss say on your £5000 as a cost of doing business if you take them to the small claims court. Few enough people do so that cost overall is manageable and the guarantee is a good marketing tool for them.
    Good to know, thank you.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Japanese electronics giant Fujitsu said on Tuesday it was cutting 1,800 jobs in Britain as part of a “transformation program” but that the move was not linked to the country’s vote to leave the European Union.

    “These changes are in no way linked to the decision by the U.K. to leave the EU,” it said. “Fujitsu is committed to the U.K. and is confident in the continued growth of the U.K. economy.”


    http://fortune.com/2016/10/11/fujitsu-layoffs-brexit/
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    POTUS BETTING;

    I've just laid off my Clinton position @ 1.2.

    I'm now almost equally green on all outcomes.

    I think the betfsir odds are approximately fair value - it's not clear that the pussy tape has hurt trump much - or at all - and we're yet to see the impact of the Sunday debate on the polls (IMO, debate#2 slightly favoured trump).

    As @speedy suggested yesterday, the polls are around about where they were pre-tape.

    Worth remembering that - when or if similar tapes come to light over the next 4 weeks.

    Basically trump appears to have stopped the rot and is not fatally wounded. ~6% ahead - 4 weeks out - makes Clinton the clear favourite, but it's far from over.

    Per Sam Wang;

    https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/786010323543166976/photo/1
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    In an aside from the US election -

    WWE 2K17 goes on sale today. All the game trailers feature 'Downtown' by Petula Clark, originally released in 1964.

    52 years on it reappears in an unexpected place.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Tim_B said:

    In an aside from the US election -

    WWE 2K17 goes on sale today. All the game trailers feature 'Downtown' by Petula Clark, originally released in 1964.

    52 years on it reappears in an unexpected place.

    I'm sure she's a big wrestling fan!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    I'm sure she's a big wrestling fan!
    She's coming up on 85, so watches much TV I'm guessing ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131

    No it isn't. Current inflation rate is 0.6%. It has a very long way to rise to reach the target BoE of 2% and even then it can rise substantially more before anyone would bat an eyelid.

    And given that interest rates are at historic lows the BoE has huge scope to intervene if the interest rate did begin to cause concern.

    A 5p rise in petrol prices is not even registering at the moment with oil prices being so low.
    Inflation is going to be a bigger story in the months ahead - remember that once a 'shock' event gets in the data, it stays in the monthly infation figures for the next 12 months, so next year Brexit inflation will be regularly in the news. But I agree the current 0.6% is not of concern and little has fed into recorded CPI as yet.

    The elephant in the room Is the risks of a sharp rise in government financing costs - the ten-year bond rare has risen from 0.7% to 1.0% alongside the fall in the £ - which again is no reason for concern; however if the £ continues to sink there may come a point where this jumps (indicating that the inflow of finance we need to cover our significant current account deficit is drying up) and if this happens there would likely be some panic, given the size of our public debt. This is the scenario where the government would come under a lot of pressure to 'do something', or at least to reassure and try and stabilise the ship.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    So the Trump people in my Twitter stream now seem to be mostly focussed on helping the Democrats defeat Paul Ryan.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    "The Apprentice" co-producer Mark Burnett announced Monday evening the infamous "Trump tapes" will not be made public due to legal constraints.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2604195/
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Sean_F said:

    I don't really want to play Oppression Olympics.

    There are places where women are treated terribly, but the US isn't generally one of them.
    The effect on Trump's campaign of a tape showing him talk derogatorily about women, versus the effect of one showing him talk derogatorily about black people, is an issue that's very relevant to this election, whether anyone likes it or not. The campaign has survived him talking positively about sexually assaulting women; it will not survive him using the N-word to refer to black people. That's what I'm asserting, and whether I'm right or not has to do with the question of the relative acceptability of the oppression of the two groups in the US.

    That women, generally speaking, have a worse time in Saudi Arabia than they do in the US is not so relevant to this election. You're making the wrong comparison.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This feels familiar

    The Hill
    JUST IN: GOP senator renews her support for Trump after telling him to step down https://t.co/9L1Ccs2csf https://t.co/WcQVDCfjSY
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    So the Trump people in my Twitter stream now seem to be mostly focussed on helping the Democrats defeat Paul Ryan.

    obviously the most important thing this close to the election
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Women are a far more subjugated group than black people

    ?????

    women are a majority of the population, a majority of the electorate and outperform men in education. They live longer lives, have better social networks and have had a century of improving prospects.

    In what way are they subjugated ?

    I know they are a majority.

    A candidate currently polling at over 40% can be exposed talking about sexually assaulting women as if it were amusing and something to boast about and he doesn't have to resign within hours - that's how.

  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Dromedary said:

    I know they are a majority.

    A candidate currently polling at over 40% can be exposed talking about sexually assaulting women as if it were amusing and something to boast about and he doesn't have to resign within hours - that's how.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcMd1F1acSo
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    That'll push a few into the other column

    Hillary Emails
    #ReligiousBigotry https://t.co/cliwcRgSU8
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,768
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    PlatoSaid said:

    This feels familiar

    The Hill
    JUST IN: GOP senator renews her support for Trump after telling him to step down https://t.co/9L1Ccs2csf https://t.co/WcQVDCfjSY

    flip flopping always a popular stance in US politics
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    PlatoSaid said:

    That'll push a few into the other column

    Hillary Emails
    #ReligiousBigotry https://t.co/cliwcRgSU8

    your twitter feed must be a sight to behold. I salute your indefatigability
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    your twitter feed must be a sight to behold. I salute your indefatigability
    How times change

    WATCH: @billclinton made some interesting comments back in the day. https://t.co/P4AOoyQ8Kv
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    PlatoSaid said:

    How times change

    WATCH: @billclinton made some interesting comments back in the day. https://t.co/P4AOoyQ8Kv
    so, did you edit "Rapist" from the twitter quote or the pb bots?

    Clinton didn't call them rapists, he's not planning on building a wall. I'm not an expert but I think I read that many of those things (part. on those who have committed crimes) are already in force
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    so, did you edit "Rapist" from the twitter quote or the pb bots?

    Clinton didn't call them rapists, he's not planning on building a wall. I'm not an expert but I think I read that many of those things (part. on those who have committed crimes) are already in force
    I removed it and there's quite a lot of wall now.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    IanB2 said:

    Inflation is going to be a bigger story in the months ahead - remember that once a 'shock' event gets in the data, it stays in the monthly infation figures for the next 12 months, so next year Brexit inflation will be regularly in the news. But I agree the current 0.6% is not of concern and little has fed into recorded CPI as yet.

    The elephant in the room Is the risks of a sharp rise in government financing costs - the ten-year bond rare has risen from 0.7% to 1.0% alongside the fall in the £ - which again is no reason for concern; however if the £ continues to sink there may come a point where this jumps (indicating that the inflow of finance we need to cover our significant current account deficit is drying up) and if this happens there would likely be some panic, given the size of our public debt. This is the scenario where the government would come under a lot of pressure to 'do something', or at least to reassure and try and stabilise the ship.
    And that rise in govt financing costs is what companies, labouring under the near £trillion pension debt caused by looney tunes accounting forced on them by the current pension legislation, and the self same low govt financing costs in the shape of 3 century low gilt yields, need. Badly. Now.

    Inflation at the sort of levels we'd be talking about and an attendant rise in 20yr gilt yields to say 3% would free up squillions in the private sector. Far from a problem it's a cause for celebration as one of the great hidden unbalances unwinds.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    PlatoSaid said:

    I removed it and there's quite a lot of wall now.
    Why remove it?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Why remove it?
    He hasn't been convicted of the crime
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    I think ContinuityRemain sniff blood on the Single Market.

    The premise is that they respect the outcome of the vote. In reality, they are hoping that political pressure - combined with that of the market movement recently on Sterling - can force the Government to massively dilute Brexit to occurring in name only.
    Are Soubry, Miliband and Farron as dangerous as the IRA though
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    Clocking on for the PB morning shift brought to you speeding at 100mph through the glorious Bedfordshire countryside courtesy of Thameslink.
  • Scott_P said:

    Turn them in...

    https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/785974007338307584
    Traitorous Remaitor Pigdogs. Ve are ze majority, you vill obey or you vill pay. Clump.
  • This article seems pretty much accurate from my perspective - I work in the relocation industry, our largest client sector is financial services, there's no talk of increased relocation opportunities in the coming years , certainly not due to brexit. But there are more inquiries / discussions about local hires, and new offices to be opened in europe. I don't think hard brexit will lead to a mass exodus, but just a loss of future jobs.

    Totally agree. As I have said on here before, we'll make sure our single market business is done inside the single market. That will not mean laying people off in the UK, but it will mean far fewer new hires here - they will happen inside the single market instead. Likewise, the tax we would have paid on the profits made in the single market will be paid there, not here.

    It does, though, depend on the business. If you are a manufacturer and most of your sales are inside the single market, you would have to think seriously about relocation.

  • Tim_B said:

    In an aside from the US election -

    WWE 2K17 goes on sale today. All the game trailers feature 'Downtown' by Petula Clark, originally released in 1964.

    52 years on it reappears in an unexpected place.

    2K17? Google tells me that 2K17 is then10.40 train from Whitlocks End to Kidderminster.
  • That is a classic remainer comment - no one is pulling up any drawbridge. You should read the deal just done with China to increase weekly flights to 100 each way with no limit on cargo flights. They also want to invest in the City and infrastructure creating tens of thousands of jobs

    They want property.

  • Dromedary said:

    The effect on Trump's campaign of a tape showing him talk derogatorily about women, versus the effect of one showing him talk derogatorily about black people, is an issue that's very relevant to this election, whether anyone likes it or not. The campaign has survived him talking positively about sexually assaulting women; it will not survive him using the N-word to refer to black people.That's what I'm asserting, and whether I'm right or not has to do with the question of the relative acceptability of the oppression of the two groups in the US.

    That women, generally speaking, have a worse time in Saudi Arabia than they do in the US is not so relevant to this election. You're making the wrong comparison.
    I wouldn't bet on that.
This discussion has been closed.