Anybody left thinking Trump can win this? It's over.
I always give him a 10% chance to win, lets see.
There is talk that the democrats are due for another panic with the polls next week.
And there is talk that they will release another tape sometime between the 15th and election day, though if it's as dull as this tape released today then Trump would be very lucky:
@MrHarryCole: EXC: PM gagged Boris from backing new Royal Yacht in conference speech. No10 removed praise for Brexit trade plan: thesun.co.uk/news/1957136/b…
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
Tory conference announcements dropping faster than the pound against the dollar..
Just had a brainwave. Theresa is scaring the living shit out of the Forex markets and big businesses on purpose. Lots of negative headlines about hard Brexit = soft Brexit.
Hammond - a serious, grown-up man who has done his time in the real world - must look across the cabinet table at the likes of Fox, Davis and Johnson and think WTF. I don't like his politics but I thank God he is there to at least try to prevent the utter mediocrities taking over the asylum.
No Chancellor is going to give up billions of pounds in tax revenue without a fight.
As I say, I don't agree with him too often, but I've always liked him. He's smart and understands the real world - having spent much of his life in it. Very glad he's there.
No doubt the three women economists that commented on the Sterling crash on BBC Ten will be dismissed as 'young girls down in London' by the Brexiteers
Key government adviser says leaving EU customs union will cost UK £25bn
Raoul Ruparel made the analysis prior to being appointed by David Davis to lend expertise on leaving the EU
The British economy will be hit by a “permanent cost” of more than £25bn if it decides to withdraw from the EU customs union, the government’s new key adviser on Brexit has said.
Raoul Ruparel, who has been hired by David Davis to provide expertise on the process of leaving the EU, said he believed there was no question over the UK staying inside Europe’s free trade bloc.
But he admitted that leaving the customs union, inside which EU countries negotiate trade deals collectively and set common external tariffs, would reduce GDP by between 1 and 1.2% in the long term.
Ruparel’s comments, made before he was appointed to the senior government position, could provide ammunition for Labour MPs who have challenged the government’s trade secretary, Liam Fox, to prove the benefits of such a move.
Yet More partial reporting by both the Guardian and TSE - who never misses an opportunity to talk down Brexit even for the most fatuous of reasons.
No fatuous reasons required. No one with more than a few brain cells should have believed that Brexit would be anything other than financially disastrous for this country. I accept arguments like we will get freedom but then "freedom's just another word when there's nothing left to lose" and that isn't the case here for the majority living here. I hope that sooner rather than later the older generation, of which I am one, suffer the financial pain that is being inflicted on the majority. So we are set to lose between £25bn and £66bn per year? Take it off pensioners now, scrap the triple lock and make those who voted Leave appreciate what they have inflicted on us.
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
It was a silly tokenistic policy anyhow. Much like May's little gesture to Grammar Schools whose impact will be minuscule, or Brexit is Brexit. which means.......????
May could quickly prove to have the substance of an ice lolly on a hot summer's day.
She's a pound shop Gordon Brown
She might say...she likes The Muse...that would change everything.
Sadly, and I say sadly in all seriousness, I have rather grown very fond of Tom Watson because of his Glastonbury Tweets last year. And yes...I am that shallow, maybe even more so...
Anybody left thinking Trump can win this? It's over.
I always give him a 10% chance to win, lets see.
There is talk that the democrats are due for another panic with the polls next week.
And there is talk that they will release another tape sometime between the 15th and election day, though if it's as dull as this tape released today then Trump would be very lucky:
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
It was a silly tokenistic policy anyhow. Much like May's little gesture to Grammar Schools whose impact will be minuscule, or Brexit is Brexit. which means.......????
May could quickly prove to have the substance of an ice lolly on a hot summer's day.
She's a pound shop Gordon Brown
She might say...she likes The Muse...that would change everything.
Sadly, and I say sadly in all seriousness, I have rather grown very fond of Tom Watson because of his Glastonbury Tweets last year. And yes...I am that shallow, maybe even more so...
May is an Abba fan. She enjoys 70s music. Corbyn wants us to all go and live back there.
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
It was a silly tokenistic policy anyhow. Much like May's little gesture to Grammar Schools whose impact will be minuscule, or Brexit is Brexit. which means.......????
May could quickly prove to have the substance of an ice lolly on a hot summer's day.
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
It was a silly tokenistic policy anyhow. Much like May's little gesture to Grammar Schools whose impact will be minuscule, or Brexit is Brexit. which means.......????
May could quickly prove to have the substance of an ice lolly on a hot summer's day.
David Davis accuses the Treasury of sabotaging the Brexit talks according to the front page of tomorrow's Telegraph
Could Theresa May beat John Major's 45%->29% slide in the ICM poll as her government unravels?
I think the polls are more likely to move in the opposite direction. Tories could be on 50% and Labour on 20% before long.
I met with a Corbynite friend earlier for a couple of pre meal, sneaky swifties......and even he, the most loyal, ideological headbanger, is getting frustrated, particularly at Jezza's inability to leverage his 2nd vote in any meaningful way.
OK: my friend's not to going to vote Tory, but it is a sign that Corbyn may quickly frustrate his band of followers.
Currently having dinner in Newcastle with our company's sales representatives from the EU. Interestingly most of them blame David Cameron for Brexit. They say he shouldn't have called a referendum just for his party's benefit.
David Davis accuses the Treasury of sabotaging the Brexit talks according to the front page of tomorrow's Telegraph
Could Theresa May beat John Major's 45%->29% slide in the ICM poll as her government unravels?
Jeremy Corbyn is no John Smith
Exactly. Did Labour have a half-decent leader the Conservatives would be in trouble. As it is, the proverbial donkey with a red rosette is no longer proverbial, he is actually leading the party.
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
It was a silly tokenistic policy anyhow. Much like May's little gesture to Grammar Schools whose impact will be minuscule, or Brexit is Brexit. which means.......????
May could quickly prove to have the substance of an ice lolly on a hot summer's day.
She's a pound shop Gordon Brown
She might say...she likes The Muse...that would change everything.
Sadly, and I say sadly in all seriousness, I have rather grown very fond of Tom Watson because of his Glastonbury Tweets last year. And yes...I am that shallow, maybe even more so...
May is an Abba fan. She enjoys 70s music. Corbyn wants us to all go and live back there.
Key government adviser says leaving EU customs union will cost UK £25bn
Raoul Ruparel made the analysis prior to being appointed by David Davis to lend expertise on leaving the EU
The British economy will be hit by a “permanent cost” of more than £25bn if it decides to withdraw from the EU customs union, the government’s new key adviser on Brexit has said.
Raoul Ruparel, who has been hired by David Davis to provide expertise on the process of leaving the EU, said he believed there was no question over the UK staying inside Europe’s free trade bloc.
But he admitted that leaving the customs union, inside which EU countries negotiate trade deals collectively and set common external tariffs, would reduce GDP by between 1 and 1.2% in the long term.
Ruparel’s comments, made before he was appointed to the senior government position, could provide ammunition for Labour MPs who have challenged the government’s trade secretary, Liam Fox, to prove the benefits of such a move.
Yet More partial reporting by both the Guardian and TSE - who never misses an opportunity to talk down Brexit even for the most fatuous of reasons.
No fatuous reasons required. No one with more than a few brain cells should have believed that Brexit would be anything other than financially disastrous for this country. I accept arguments like we will get freedom but then "freedom's just another word when there's nothing left to lose" and that isn't the case here for the majority living here. I hope that sooner rather than later the older generation, of which I am one, suffer the financial pain that is being inflicted on the majority. So we are set to lose between £25bn and £66bn per year? Take it off pensioners now, scrap the triple lock and make those who voted Leave appreciate what they have inflicted on us.
LOL. I see there are still some diehard Eurofanatic luncatics out there apart from Tyson and TSE.
It is. I'd take issue with the headline though. Incremental change and investment decisions meaning growth occurs outside The UK was always the risk with brexit. Evolution not revolution. It's not absolute decline but relative decline. The critical mass point though is an interesting one and were it not for the excesses of US regulators (Dodd-Frank is not your friend) then a reassertion of NY would seem likely. Instead there's likely to be an increased financial and time cost of transacting financial business.
No doubt the three women economists that commented on the Sterling crash on BBC Ten will be dismissed as 'young girls down in London' by the Brexiteers
Grieving remoaners.
Yes, they will also be dismissed as that!
The remainer's are out in force tonight and seem to think TM is going to become very unpopular. I would warn them not to underestimate Theresa May and watch as her popularity rises with each attempt to prevent the return of sovereignty to our Country.
Spain were saying tonight that there are very close bonds between out two Countries and an amicable divorce will happen as we are too important a country for the relationship to be adversely effected
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
It was a silly tokenistic policy anyhow. Much like May's little gesture to Grammar Schools whose impact will be minuscule, or Brexit is Brexit. which means.......????
May could quickly prove to have the substance of an ice lolly on a hot summer's day.
She's a pound shop Gordon Brown
She might say...she likes The Muse...that would change everything.
Sadly, and I say sadly in all seriousness, I have rather grown very fond of Tom Watson because of his Glastonbury Tweets last year. And yes...I am that shallow, maybe even more so...
May is an Abba fan. She enjoys 70s music. Corbyn wants us to all go and live back there.
"George Osborne's pension reforms will backfire and end up costing the taxpayer billions of pounds more every year as people stop saving for their retirement, the official Treasury watchdog has warned. The Office for Budget Responsibility said the removal of tax relief on pensions for higher earners - billed as a move to save money - will ultimately end up costing the Exchequer £5 billion a year." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/11/governments-draconian-pension-reforms-have-backfired-experts-war/
Oh don't say that. You will make TSE cry if you attack his hero.
"George Osborne's pension reforms will backfire and end up costing the taxpayer billions of pounds more every year as people stop saving for their retirement, the official Treasury watchdog has warned. The Office for Budget Responsibility said the removal of tax relief on pensions for higher earners - billed as a move to save money - will ultimately end up costing the Exchequer £5 billion a year." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/11/governments-draconian-pension-reforms-have-backfired-experts-war/
I am not convinced. I don't think people will stop saving for retirement, particularly the very high earners who are the subject of the article. And many of them probably max out their ISAs every year already.
Key government adviser says leaving EU customs union will cost UK £25bn
Raoul Ruparel made the analysis prior to being appointed by David Davis to lend expertise on leaving the EU
The British economy will be hit by a “permanent cost” of more than £25bn if it decides to withdraw from the EU customs union, the government’s new key adviser on Brexit has said.
Raoul Ruparel, who has been hired by David Davis to provide expertise on the process of leaving the EU, said he believed there was no question over the UK staying inside Europe’s free trade bloc.
But he admitted that leaving the customs union, inside which EU countries negotiate trade deals collectively and set common external tariffs, would reduce GDP by between 1 and 1.2% in the long term.
Ruparel’s comments, made before he was appointed to the senior government position, could provide ammunition for Labour MPs who have challenged the government’s trade secretary, Liam Fox, to prove the benefits of such a move.
Yet More partial reporting by both the Guardian and TSE - who never misses an opportunity to talk down Brexit even for the most fatuous of reasons.
No fatuous reasons required. No one with more than a few brain cells should have believed that Brexit would be anything other than financially disastrous for this country. I accept arguments like we will get freedom but then "freedom's just another word when there's nothing left to lose" and that isn't the case here for the majority living here. I hope that sooner rather than later the older generation, of which I am one, suffer the financial pain that is being inflicted on the majority. So we are set to lose between £25bn and £66bn per year? Take it off pensioners now, scrap the triple lock and make those who voted Leave appreciate what they have inflicted on us.
LOL. I see there are still some diehard Eurofanatic luncatics out there apart from Tyson and TSE.
The biggest loonies are those who thought Brexit would be just a swift move to EEA membership with no economic shock at all.
It seems to me Clinton is willing to give up the chance for an Electoral landslide to try and flip the senate.
She has 3 campagin events scheduled for New Hampshire on here site 2 tomorrow and 1 on Thursday. Clinton has NH in the bag but there's a competitive senate race there. Michelle Obmam could be deployed elsewhere if they were worried about the EV.
No doubt the three women economists that commented on the Sterling crash on BBC Ten will be dismissed as 'young girls down in London' by the Brexiteers
Grieving remoaners.
Yes, they will also be dismissed as that!
The remainer's are out in force tonight and seem to think TM is going to become very unpopular. I would warn them not to underestimate Theresa May and watch as her popularity rises with each attempt to prevent the return of sovereignty to our Country.
Spain were saying tonight that there are very close bonds between out two Countries and an amicable divorce will happen as we are too important a country for the relationship to be adversely effected
My Spanish colleague was saying that people are worried that the rich British pensioners will go home...
On the other hand, that's a silly article. Who cares if, for policy reasons, the EIB invests in the UK or not? There's plenty of dosh sloshing around the world looking for good projects to fund, and much of it is sloshing through London. The problem isn't finding people who want to fund things, it's finding projects worth funding.
EIB funding isn't particularly cheap. Lots of bureaucratic strings attached as well.
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
It was a silly tokenistic policy anyhow. Much like May's little gesture to Grammar Schools whose impact will be minuscule, or Brexit is Brexit. which means.......????
May could quickly prove to have the substance of an ice lolly on a hot summer's day.
She's a pound shop Gordon Brown
She might say...she likes The Muse...that would change everything.
Sadly, and I say sadly in all seriousness, I have rather grown very fond of Tom Watson because of his Glastonbury Tweets last year. And yes...I am that shallow, maybe even more so...
May is an Abba fan. She enjoys 70s music. Corbyn wants us to all go and live back there.
I want to go back to the 70's...Grease, Jaws, bowl head hair cuts, flairs, crappy porno mags you found in the park with the pages all stuck together, 3 TV channels that finished at midnight with a test card.....and Abba, don't forget Love Thy Neighbour and Carry on Movies....
Can we go back there please. I'd press that reverse button in a heart beat
David Davis accuses the Treasury of sabotaging the Brexit talks according to the front page of tomorrow's Telegraph
Could Theresa May beat John Major's 45%->29% slide in the ICM poll as her government unravels?
I think the polls are more likely to move in the opposite direction. Tories could be on 50% and Labour on 20% before long.
I met with a Corbynite friend earlier for a couple of pre meal, sneaky swifties......and even he, the most loyal, ideological headbanger, is getting frustrated, particularly at Jezza's inability to leverage his 2nd vote in any meaningful way.
OK: my friend's not to going to vote Tory, but it is a sign that Corbyn may quickly frustrate his band of followers.
I'm now of the view that if Labour found a decent unity candidate from the soft left or sane left, they could remove Corbyn. I would grudingly accept Lewis or even Thornberry if it meant Jesmondo was out on his ear.
The UK holds 16% of the EIB share capital - but receives just 8.8% of the funding. The Europeans are worried we will pull out, substantially reducing european handouts.
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
It was a silly tokenistic policy anyhow. Much like May's little gesture to Grammar Schools whose impact will be minuscule, or Brexit is Brexit. which means.......????
May could quickly prove to have the substance of an ice lolly on a hot summer's day.
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
It was a silly tokenistic policy anyhow. Much like May's little gesture to Grammar Schools whose impact will be minuscule, or Brexit is Brexit. which means.......????
May could quickly prove to have the substance of an ice lolly on a hot summer's day.
David Davis accuses the Treasury of sabotaging the Brexit talks according to the front page of tomorrow's Telegraph
Could Theresa May beat John Major's 45%->29% slide in the ICM poll as her government unravels?
I think the polls are more likely to move in the opposite direction. Tories could be on 50% and Labour on 20% before long.
I met with a Corbynite friend earlier for a couple of pre meal, sneaky swifties......and even he, the most loyal, ideological headbanger, is getting frustrated, particularly at Jezza's inability to leverage his 2nd vote in any meaningful way.
OK: my friend's not to going to vote Tory, but it is a sign that Corbyn may quickly frustrate his band of followers.
I'm now of the view that if Labour found a decent unity candidate from the soft left or sane left, they could remove Corbyn. I would grudingly accept Lewis or even Thornberry if it meant Jesmondo was out on his ear.
On the other hand, that's a silly article. Who cares if, for policy reasons, the EIB invests in the UK or not? There's plenty of dosh sloshing around the world looking for good projects to fund, and much of it is sloshing through London. The problem isn't finding people who want to fund things, it's finding projects worth funding.
Indeed there is no shortage of money. Indeed the UK share capital in the EIB s bigger than the land it receives from it. The question is whether any non EU actor in the UK will take over the role of investing in this sort of stuff ? The EIB role in UK is easierly replicable. But will it be replicated ?
Yes. Which projects which have revived funding do you think could not have obtained commercial debt (bank or capital markets)?
The UK holds 16% of the EIB share capital - but receives just 8.8% of the funding. The Europeans are worried we will pull out Brexiteers are grasping at straws for a bargaining chip.
"George Osborne's pension reforms will backfire and end up costing the taxpayer billions of pounds more every year as people stop saving for their retirement, the official Treasury watchdog has warned. The Office for Budget Responsibility said the removal of tax relief on pensions for higher earners - billed as a move to save money - will ultimately end up costing the Exchequer £5 billion a year." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/11/governments-draconian-pension-reforms-have-backfired-experts-war/
Oh don't say that. You will make TSE cry if you attack his hero.
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
The official term for that amount is 'fuck all' isn't it?
It's not nothing, but in the grand scheme of things these differences in outcomes become almost meaningless over the medium to long term. Take the Treasury forecasts, if the worst case was 31% growth by 2030, and remaining was 37%, whichever outcome occurred the country would be far better off than we are now.
Besides that we have bigger fish to fry, I wish we'd spend some serious effort on the UK's productivity, but that doesn't sell newspapers and so our dozy leaders are not spending much time thinking about it.
David Davis accuses the Treasury of sabotaging the Brexit talks according to the front page of tomorrow's Telegraph
Could Theresa May beat John Major's 45%->29% slide in the ICM poll as her government unravels?
I think the polls are more likely to move in the opposite direction. Tories could be on 50% and Labour on 20% before long.
I met with a Corbynite friend earlier for a couple of pre meal, sneaky swifties......and even he, the most loyal, ideological headbanger, is getting frustrated, particularly at Jezza's inability to leverage his 2nd vote in any meaningful way.
OK: my friend's not to going to vote Tory, but it is a sign that Corbyn may quickly frustrate his band of followers.
I'm now of the view that if Labour found a decent unity candidate from the soft left or sane left, they could remove Corbyn. I would grudingly accept Lewis or even Thornberry if it meant Jesmondo was out on his ear.
Thornberry - really - bring it on
She would still lose, but anything is better than the Corbonaut
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
"George Osborne's pension reforms will backfire and end up costing the taxpayer billions of pounds more every year as people stop saving for their retirement, the official Treasury watchdog has warned. The Office for Budget Responsibility said the removal of tax relief on pensions for higher earners - billed as a move to save money - will ultimately end up costing the Exchequer £5 billion a year." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/11/governments-draconian-pension-reforms-have-backfired-experts-war/
Oh don't say that. You will make TSE cry if you attack his hero.
Please my hero is David Cameron, though my forthcoming piece assessing Cameron's legacy will see me removed from Dave's Christmas card list this year
The UK holds 16% of the EIB share capital - but receives just 8.8% of the funding. The Europeans are worried we will pull out Brexiteers are grasping at straws for a bargaining chip.
Good point.
Fair play for trying. Very plucky of you.
Der Spiegel, hardly pro-Brexit
Brexit could also lead to painful shortfalls for the European Investment Bank (EIB), Kullas calculated. If the British were to withdraw their share capital in the development bank, it would result in a shortfall worth billions. The EIB would be forced to make fewer loans -- loans that are vital for infrastructure projects across the Continent.
According to Kullas, the British have thus far borne the greatest burden at the bank. Their share of total capital is 16 percent, but they only benefit from 8.8 percent of the loans. No other country has a larger imbalance.
It seems to me Clinton is willing to give up the chance for an Electoral landslide to try and flip the senate.
She has 3 campagin events scheduled for New Hampshire on here site 2 tomorrow and 1 on Thursday. Clinton has NH in the bag but there's a competitive senate race there. Michelle Obmam could be deployed elsewhere if they were worried about the EV.
Makes sense, her Presidency and SCOTUS approval will be much smoother if they control the Senate.
David Davis accuses the Treasury of sabotaging the Brexit talks according to the front page of tomorrow's Telegraph
Could Theresa May beat John Major's 45%->29% slide in the ICM poll as her government unravels?
I think the polls are more likely to move in the opposite direction. Tories could be on 50% and Labour on 20% before long.
I met with a Corbynite friend earlier for a couple of pre meal, sneaky swifties......and even he, the most loyal, ideological headbanger, is getting frustrated, particularly at Jezza's inability to leverage his 2nd vote in any meaningful way.
OK: my friend's not to going to vote Tory, but it is a sign that Corbyn may quickly frustrate his band of followers.
I'm now of the view that if Labour found a decent unity candidate from the soft left or sane left, they could remove Corbyn. I would grudingly accept Lewis or even Thornberry if it meant Jesmondo was out on his ear.
Thornberry - really - bring it on
She would still lose, but anything is better than the Corbonaut
She has a soothingly mellifluous voice.
It articulates utter bollocks but I find it very pleasing to listen to. And of course as you say it manages to speak more sense than Jezza.
Huzzah for the cabinet and putting Red Theresa in her place.
Senior cabinet ministers have rebelled against Theresa May’s plan to put workers on company boards, with one predicting that “it is not going to happen”
It was a silly tokenistic policy anyhow. Much like May's little gesture to Grammar Schools whose impact will be minuscule, or Brexit is Brexit. which means.......????
May could quickly prove to have the substance of an ice lolly on a hot summer's day.
She's a pound shop Gordon Brown
She might say...she likes The Muse...that would change everything.
Sadly, and I say sadly in all seriousness, I have rather grown very fond of Tom Watson because of his Glastonbury Tweets last year. And yes...I am that shallow, maybe even more so...
May is an Abba fan. She enjoys 70s music. Corbyn wants us to all go and live back there.
I want to go back to the 70's...Grease, Jaws, bowl head hair cuts, flairs, crappy porno mags you found in the park with the pages all stuck together, 3 TV channels that finished at midnight with a test card.....and Abba, don't forget Love Thy Neighbour and Carry on Movies....
Can we go back there please. I'd press that reverse button in a heart beat
I was watching "Carry on at Your Convenience" on ITV 3 on Sunday. One of the best.
Very much the Seventies as I remember it. Plenty of bottom pinching and wandering hands too. Plato and the Donald would be in clover.
"What drove Leavers was, we are also told, “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. The currency markets demonstrate the emptiness of that principle. Britain’s EU partners are about to do the same. The premise of the Leave campaign was false: a host of decisions that affect the UK will always be taken outside it. But this truth is unlikely to stop the train towards a complete Brexit from departing on its timetabled journey. Stopping it would take a miracle, or rather a crisis. Is that likely? No. Is it possible? Yes."
Philip_Thompson of this parish spoke on the previous thread about Brexit vs ERM. Whilst he was unsurprisingly wrong, the comparison is interesting. The numbers are below: I'll discuss it in the next post
ONE WEEK AFTER 19 Sep 1992: 1 GBP=1.753498 USD (T=+7days)
THE MONTHS AFTER 10 Oct 1992: 1 GBP=1.698703 USD (T=+01mth approx) 10 Nov 1992: 1 GBP=1.514998 USD (T=+02mth approx) 10 Dec 1992: 1 GBP=1.557196 USD (T=+03mth approx) 10 Jan 1993: 1 GBP=1.527005 USD (T=+04mth approx) 10 Feb 1993: 1 GBP=1.436995 USD (T=+05mth approx) 10 Mar 1993: 1 GBP=1.433502 USD (T=+06mth approx) 10 Apr 1993: 1 GBP=1.518502 USD (T=+07mth approx) 10 May 1993: 1 GBP=1.551505 USD (T=+08mth approx) 10 Jun 1993: 1 GBP=1.512198 USD (T=+09mth approx) 10 Jul 1993: 1 GBP=1.481999 USD (T=+10mth approx) 10 Aug 1993: 1 GBP=1.485696 USD (T=+11mth approx) 10 Sep 1993: 1 GBP=1.544507 USD (T=+12mth approx)
REFERENDUM ==========
THE WEEK OF THE REFERENDUM 20 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.464556 USD 21 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.474041 USD 22 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.469275 USD 23 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.486912 USD (T=0) 24 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.370402 USD
ONE WEEK AFTER 30 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.343255 USD
THE MONTHS AFTER 10 Jul 2016: 1 GBP=1.298640 USD (T=+01mth approx) 10 Aug 2016: 1 GBP=1.307443 USD (T=+02mth approx) 10 Sep 2016: 1 GBP=1.332576 USD (T=+03mth approx) 10 Oct 2016: 1 GBP=1.239036 USD (T=+04mth approx)
David Davis accuses the Treasury of sabotaging the Brexit talks according to the front page of tomorrow's Telegraph
Could Theresa May beat John Major's 45%->29% slide in the ICM poll as her government unravels?
I think the polls are more likely to move in the opposite direction. Tories could be on 50% and Labour on 20% before long.
I met with a Corbynite friend earlier for a couple of pre meal, sneaky swifties......and even he, the most loyal, ideological headbanger, is getting frustrated, particularly at Jezza's inability to leverage his 2nd vote in any meaningful way.
OK: my friend's not to going to vote Tory, but it is a sign that Corbyn may quickly frustrate his band of followers.
I'm now of the view that if Labour found a decent unity candidate from the soft left or sane left, they could remove Corbyn. I would grudingly accept Lewis or even Thornberry if it meant Jesmondo was out on his ear.
Thornberry - really - bring it on
She would still lose, but anything is better than the Corbonaut
There must be someone outside the North London elite who could make a reasonable leader.
Also where is Corbyn and the 'stop the war' coalition demonstrating outside the Russian Embassy as noted by Boris at the dispatch box today
David Davis accuses the Treasury of sabotaging the Brexit talks according to the front page of tomorrow's Telegraph
Could Theresa May beat John Major's 45%->29% slide in the ICM poll as her government unravels?
I think the polls are more likely to move in the opposite direction. Tories could be on 50% and Labour on 20% before long.
I met with a Corbynite friend earlier for a couple of pre meal, sneaky swifties......and even he, the most loyal, ideological headbanger, is getting frustrated, particularly at Jezza's inability to leverage his 2nd vote in any meaningful way.
OK: my friend's not to going to vote Tory, but it is a sign that Corbyn may quickly frustrate his band of followers.
I'm now of the view that if Labour found a decent unity candidate from the soft left or sane left, they could remove Corbyn. I would grudingly accept Lewis or even Thornberry if it meant Jesmondo was out on his ear.
Thornberry - really - bring it on
She would still lose, but anything is better than the Corbonaut
She has a soothingly mellifluous voice.
It articulates utter bollocks but I find it very pleasing to listen to. And of course as you say it manages to speak more sense than Jezza.
No... I think TSE is a COT......a Cameron and Osborne Tory. It's a newly evolved species that has recently been discovered after 23rd June in the English Shires. They are really quite sweet and loveable creatures that could have something of a snappy bite.
No doubt the three women economists that commented on the Sterling crash on BBC Ten will be dismissed as 'young girls down in London' by the Brexiteers
Grieving remoaners.
Yes, they will also be dismissed as that!
The remainer's are out in force tonight and seem to think TM is going to become very unpopular. I would warn them not to underestimate Theresa May and watch as her popularity rises with each attempt to prevent the return of sovereignty to our Country.
TM has a problem with the Remainers inside Govt that are carrying on fighting Project Fear. The question is, what is she going to do about them? When two factions fight a battle which is won by one side, it is not wise to leave all the losers in positions of power festering away, bitter about their defeat. Only those that can accept defeat and move on should be allowed to stay, but in the case of Brexit, there are far too many still in place and all the Treasury servants who fed the project fear beast with their dubious spreadsheets. Mrs May needs to clean house, but will she act quickly enough? Her best bet may be a GE in the short term and then have a clear out.
David Davis accuses the Treasury of sabotaging the Brexit talks according to the front page of tomorrow's Telegraph
Could Theresa May beat John Major's 45%->29% slide in the ICM poll as her government unravels?
I think the polls are more likely to move in the opposite direction. Tories could be on 50% and Labour on 20% before long.
I met with a Corbynite friend earlier for a couple of pre meal, sneaky swifties......and even he, the most loyal, ideological headbanger, is getting frustrated, particularly at Jezza's inability to leverage his 2nd vote in any meaningful way.
OK: my friend's not to going to vote Tory, but it is a sign that Corbyn may quickly frustrate his band of followers.
I'm now of the view that if Labour found a decent unity candidate from the soft left or sane left, they could remove Corbyn. I would grudingly accept Lewis or even Thornberry if it meant Jesmondo was out on his ear.
Thornberry - really - bring it on
She would still lose, but anything is better than the Corbonaut
She has a soothingly mellifluous voice.
It articulates utter bollocks but I find it very pleasing to listen to. And of course as you say it manages to speak more sense than Jezza.
It seems to me Clinton is willing to give up the chance for an Electoral landslide to try and flip the senate.
She has 3 campagin events scheduled for New Hampshire on here site 2 tomorrow and 1 on Thursday. Clinton has NH in the bag but there's a competitive senate race there. Michelle Obmam could be deployed elsewhere if they were worried about the EV.
from what i gather, the private polling is even worse for trump than the public polling. She can afford to take advantage of the Trump vs republican feud to nake her first presidency easier. Trump doesnt have anything in his bag at the moment to take her on, he is relying on assange, Putin or sudden illness to stop her at the moment
No... I think TSE is a COT......a Cameron and Osborne Tory. It's a newly evolved species that has recently been discovered after 23rd June in the English Shires. They are really quite sweet and loveable creatures that could have something of a snappy bite.
I've been a Tory long before Dave and George became MPs, let alone leaders.
One of the reasons I'm a Tory is that I'm a passionate believer in free trade, just like Thatcher was.
Am loving that many leave Tories at conference last week agreed with me.
OK, so why are the figures below interesting? Because it appears that Brexit is tracking Black Wednesday, at least proportionately.
In the 4 months from ERM fallout we dropped from 1.851102 to 1.527005, a fall of 32 cents or 18%. The low point was reached 6 months after ERM fallout at 1.433502, a fall of 41 cents or 23%
In the 4 months from Brexit we dropped from 1.486912 to 1.239036, a fall of 25 cents or 17%. If Brexit continues to track ERM, we should hit low point of 1.14 in two months time, a fall of 34 cents or 23%
So if we hit £=$1.14 before December 10th, Brexit is worse than ERM, proportionately speaking. If we stay above it, then Brexit is better.
David Davis accuses the Treasury of sabotaging the Brexit talks according to the front page of tomorrow's Telegraph
Could Theresa May beat John Major's 45%->29% slide in the ICM poll as her government unravels?
I think the polls are more likely to move in the opposite direction. Tories could be on 50% and Labour on 20% before long.
I met with a Corbynite friend earlier for a couple of pre meal, sneaky swifties......and even he, the most loyal, ideological headbanger, is getting frustrated, particularly at Jezza's inability to leverage his 2nd vote in any meaningful way.
OK: my friend's not to going to vote Tory, but it is a sign that Corbyn may quickly frustrate his band of followers.
I'm now of the view that if Labour found a decent unity candidate from the soft left or sane left, they could remove Corbyn. I would grudingly accept Lewis or even Thornberry if it meant Jesmondo was out on his ear.
Thornberry - really - bring it on
She would still lose, but anything is better than the Corbonaut
There must be someone outside the North London elite who could make a reasonable leader.
Also where is Corbyn and the 'stop the war' coalition demonstrating outside the Russian Embassy as noted by Boris at the dispatch box today
Comments
The entertainment - and electoral interest - will likely be provided by the war breaking out between the Republicans and Trumpians.
David Cameron: I've found my first job after politics, building the Big Society
DAVID CAMERON
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/11/david-cameron-ive-found-my-first-job-after-politics-building-the/
Milwaukee has so far had to reject 400 absentee ballots for failure of witness to provide full address
Michael McDonald added,
Repubs are gonna cheat in Wisconsin.
Sadly, and I say sadly in all seriousness, I have rather grown very fond of Tom Watson because of his Glastonbury Tweets last year. And yes...I am that shallow, maybe even more so...
Walter Mondale would be on 60% against Trump.
48% Remain - split how many ways? Three? Four? Five?
People really need to learn from Scotland. It's over.
*runs and hides*
OK: my friend's not to going to vote Tory, but it is a sign that Corbyn may quickly frustrate his band of followers.
Currently having dinner in Newcastle with our company's sales representatives from the EU. Interestingly most of them blame David Cameron for Brexit. They say he shouldn't have called a referendum just for his party's benefit.
As it is, the proverbial donkey with a red rosette is no longer proverbial, he is actually leading the party.
1) She's an ABBA fan
2) She's probably buggered up new grammar schools
I suppose that could refer to either Scott or Mike really.
Spain were saying tonight that there are very close bonds between out two Countries and an amicable divorce will happen as we are too important a country for the relationship to be adversely effected
She has 3 campagin events scheduled for New Hampshire on here site 2 tomorrow and 1 on Thursday. Clinton has NH in the bag but there's a competitive senate race there. Michelle Obmam could be deployed elsewhere if they were worried about the EV.
The official term for that amount is 'fuck all' isn't it?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/10/11/roy_spence_s_hillary_clinton_slogans_not_great_bob.html
Best campaign slogan ever.
Can we go back there please. I'd press that reverse button in a heart beat
*dives for cover*
Besides that we have bigger fish to fry, I wish we'd spend some serious effort on the UK's productivity, but that doesn't sell newspapers and so our dozy leaders are not spending much time thinking about it.
It has only just begun.
Der Spiegel, hardly pro-Brexit
Brexit could also lead to painful shortfalls for the European Investment Bank (EIB), Kullas calculated. If the British were to withdraw their share capital in the development bank, it would result in a shortfall worth billions. The EIB would be forced to make fewer loans -- loans that are vital for infrastructure projects across the Continent.
According to Kullas, the British have thus far borne the greatest burden at the bank. Their share of total capital is 16 percent, but they only benefit from 8.8 percent of the loans. No other country has a larger imbalance.
It articulates utter bollocks but I find it very pleasing to listen to. And of course as you say it manages to speak more sense than Jezza.
Give me Parliamentary democracy but not yet.
Very much the Seventies as I remember it. Plenty of bottom pinching and wandering hands too. Plato and the Donald would be in clover.
martin.wolf@ft.com
ERM
===
THE WEEK OF ERM FALLOUT
14 Sep 1992: 1 GBP=1.891003 USD
15 Sep 1992: 1 GBP=1.895997 USD
16 Sep 1992: 1 GBP=1.851102 USD (T=0)
17 Sep 1992: 1 GBP=1.767006 USD
18 Sep 1992: 1 GBP=1.753498 USD
ONE WEEK AFTER
19 Sep 1992: 1 GBP=1.753498 USD (T=+7days)
THE MONTHS AFTER
10 Oct 1992: 1 GBP=1.698703 USD (T=+01mth approx)
10 Nov 1992: 1 GBP=1.514998 USD (T=+02mth approx)
10 Dec 1992: 1 GBP=1.557196 USD (T=+03mth approx)
10 Jan 1993: 1 GBP=1.527005 USD (T=+04mth approx)
10 Feb 1993: 1 GBP=1.436995 USD (T=+05mth approx)
10 Mar 1993: 1 GBP=1.433502 USD (T=+06mth approx)
10 Apr 1993: 1 GBP=1.518502 USD (T=+07mth approx)
10 May 1993: 1 GBP=1.551505 USD (T=+08mth approx)
10 Jun 1993: 1 GBP=1.512198 USD (T=+09mth approx)
10 Jul 1993: 1 GBP=1.481999 USD (T=+10mth approx)
10 Aug 1993: 1 GBP=1.485696 USD (T=+11mth approx)
10 Sep 1993: 1 GBP=1.544507 USD (T=+12mth approx)
REFERENDUM
==========
THE WEEK OF THE REFERENDUM
20 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.464556 USD
21 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.474041 USD
22 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.469275 USD
23 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.486912 USD (T=0)
24 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.370402 USD
ONE WEEK AFTER
30 Jun 2016: 1 GBP=1.343255 USD
THE MONTHS AFTER
10 Jul 2016: 1 GBP=1.298640 USD (T=+01mth approx)
10 Aug 2016: 1 GBP=1.307443 USD (T=+02mth approx)
10 Sep 2016: 1 GBP=1.332576 USD (T=+03mth approx)
10 Oct 2016: 1 GBP=1.239036 USD (T=+04mth approx)
Sources: http://fxtop.com/en/currency-converter-past.php
Also where is Corbyn and the 'stop the war' coalition demonstrating outside the Russian Embassy as noted by Boris at the dispatch box today
Does anyone here envisage Labour supporters rallying around an Osborne Remain Party, or City bankers falling in behind a Corbyn one?
http://news.sky.com/story/fuel-prices-to-soar-by-5p-a-litre-within-weeks-after-pound-slump-10612999
Inflation is going to be a huge political hot potato over the next year or so ...
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1288824/#Comment_1288824
Item 6.
One of the reasons I'm a Tory is that I'm a passionate believer in free trade, just like Thatcher was.
Am loving that many leave Tories at conference last week agreed with me.
Protection MoneyMembership Fees, should the need arise.OK, so why are the figures below interesting? Because it appears that Brexit is tracking Black Wednesday, at least proportionately.
In the 4 months from ERM fallout we dropped from 1.851102 to 1.527005, a fall of 32 cents or 18%. The low point was reached 6 months after ERM fallout at 1.433502, a fall of 41 cents or 23%
In the 4 months from Brexit we dropped from 1.486912 to 1.239036, a fall of 25 cents or 17%. If Brexit continues to track ERM, we should hit low point of 1.14 in two months time, a fall of 34 cents or 23%
So if we hit £=$1.14 before December 10th, Brexit is worse than ERM, proportionately speaking. If we stay above it, then Brexit is better.