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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    corporeal said:


    The right to vote is the supreme right.

    I don't agree at all. The UK was rightly described as a democracy long before universal suffrage. The right to vote is the icing on the democratic cake.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431

    Yes. Neatly observed.

    The Lib Dems' challenge is getting Leffman known: she's enormously popular in her ward (landslide majority in an otherwise blue area) but no name recognition in Witney itself. They are at least helped by Robert Courts (Conservative candidate) being even less well known: he represents a remote area on the District Council and has only done so for a couple of years. He voted Leave.

    Robert's prediction of the other day is the best I've seen here as to what might actually happen here in Witney. I wonder if the LDs may actually outdo it but let's see.
    If it's a low turnout by-election (as seems likely), it's possible the LibDems might outperform my 21% forecast.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Yeah... Not the finest hour of the early US.
    I remember the documentary on Rhodesia where they interviewed the guy who wrote their post UDI constitution. He explained how they basically cut and pasted the US constitution- except that clause "We didn't agree with that bit so we left it out"
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Less, in fact. Not only will not Trump resign but he cannot resign. His name is literally on the ballots.
    Yes this idea that Trump is could and should resign his candidacy is one of the more barking concepts advanced on PB, among a wide and colourful field. Even were it possible, it would be an act of such gross desperation the GOP would be routed regardless of who they put up in Trump's place.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,692
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    It is worth remembering that the US constitution is very, very short. See: http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html

    And constitutions don't make murder illegal or homosexuality wrong. They define the boundaries of executive and legislative power.
    AIUI India has the longest constitution, not far removed from the Govt. of India Act, 1935.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    619 said:

    Wikileaks releases emails to help trump

    all a bit boring and isnt going to stop pussy gate i feel

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/wikileaks-appears-to-release-hillary-clintons-paid-speech-tr?utm_term=.xbmbAWQ3V#.sh7Jb6aLg

    "Wikileaks Appears To Release Hillary Clinton’s Paid Speech Transcripts"

    Having seen one of Hillary's paid speeches live, I doubt there will be anything interesting in there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    Opinion polls are NOT referenda
    Thank God, or we'd have Prime Minister Miliband propped up by his SNP string-pullers....
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    We was asked a simple question:

    Should the UK leave or remain in the EU?
    We WERE asked an OVERLY simple question - hence no practically applicable answer.
  • 619 said:

    Wikileaks releases emails to help trump

    all a bit boring and isnt going to stop pussy gate i feel

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/wikileaks-appears-to-release-hillary-clintons-paid-speech-tr?utm_term=.xbmbAWQ3V#.sh7Jb6aLg

    I wouldnt count on that Mr 619:


    "my dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders”
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    619 said:

    Wikileaks releases emails to help trump

    all a bit boring and isnt going to stop pussy gate i feel

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/wikileaks-appears-to-release-hillary-clintons-paid-speech-tr?utm_term=.xbmbAWQ3V#.sh7Jb6aLg

    I was looking forward to some real juicy leaks...I won't mention Pussy here...oops I just did but I think I got away with it.
    Sadly I don't think Assange has anything.
  • rcs1000 said:

    It is worth remembering that the US constitution is very, very short. See: http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html

    And constitutions don't make murder illegal or homosexuality wrong. They define the boundaries of executive and legislative power.
    That depends on who gets to write the consitition.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431

    AIUI India has the longest constitution, not far removed from the Govt. of India Act, 1935.
    How right you are:

    The Constitution of India is the longest written constitution of any sovereign country in the world, containing 444 articles in 22 parts, 12 schedules and 118 amendments, with 117,369 words in its English-language translation
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    "Wikileaks Appears To Release Hillary Clinton’s Paid Speech Transcripts"

    Having seen one of Hillary's paid speeches live, I doubt there will be anything interesting in there.
    nothing in it. she says she wants to work with wall street and she occasionally has a different public and private position on things.

    if thats the best wikileaks can do to help Trump...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    NoEasyDay said:

    I didn't write any of that.

    The original poster was Big Wales - he claimed that the policy to flush out foreigners in companies was justified because 59% of people told YouGov they supported it.
  • Jobabob said:

    We WERE asked an OVERLY simple question - hence no practically applicable answer.
    Was, were...

    We WERE is American English :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119
    edited October 2016

    I wouldnt count on that Mr 619:


    "my dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders”
    'Open borders' from Mexico, the Trump camp will jump on that! Her comments on middle class life “I’m kind of far removed” are also not great for her campaign

  • I refer you to my previous comment. You have no evidence that the majority favour hard brexit.

    I agree with you here. I campaigned very hard for and of course voted for Leave. But my vision of a post Brexit Britain is probably a long way from the average UKIP voter. Even some of those leading the Leave campaign were not hoping for what we would now describe as a 'hard' Brexit. To try and claim that this was the settled will of the people based on the referendum question is simply not reasonable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,552
    edited October 2016
    619 said:

    Wikileaks releases emails to help trump

    all a bit boring and isnt going to stop pussy gate i feel

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/wikileaks-appears-to-release-hillary-clintons-paid-speech-tr?utm_term=.xbmbAWQ3V#.sh7Jb6aLg

    She was paid $250k a pop for that "you know, you know" infested drivel?

    In a normal election cycle there are some terrible sounding quotes which could ripped from just that one email for an attack ad. If Mitt "47%" Romney had said would have caused trouble, but she is against The Donald who daily says offensive stuff.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    I wouldnt count on that Mr 619:


    "my dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders”
    Which hemisphere? North or West or Pacific?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    She was paid $250k a pop for that "you know, you know" infested drivel?
    No, she was paid $250k a pop for future political influence.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    I think the lesson is more that things are not as absolute as they appear. Autre temps, autres moeurs

    After all, there would would have been a pretty much 100% consensus in the Western world in 1776 that the unalienable rights endowed by the Creator arose from the moment of conception. Now, not so much.
    I very much doubt it. Abortion has been around forever, and debated over forever. You can find justifications of it all the way back to the Ancient Greeks. So there were very likely significant portions of society that didn't believe in that.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    HYUFD said:

    'Open borders' from Mexico, the Trump camp will jump on that!
    Is there a trump operation at the moment? all the GOP senators seems to be abandoning him publically and this seems the big news story. I doubt that one speech will get much traction
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431

    I agree with you here. I campaigned very hard for and of course voted for Leave. But my vision of a post Brexit Britain is probably a long way from the average UKIP voter. Even some of those leading the Leave campaign were not hoping for what we would now describe as a 'hard' Brexit. To try and claim that this was the settled will of the people based on the referendum question is simply not reasonable.
    You voted Leave???

    Richard, I've missed you. Please spend more time on pb.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Was, were...

    We WERE is American English :lol:
    No. We was is Essex English.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    I wouldnt count on that Mr 619:


    "my dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders”
    Have you seen American tv news at the moment? trump is finished.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119
    edited October 2016

    Until a few of them are gunned down by paramilitary police pour encouragement les autres.

    Problem is modern technology means violently suppressing riots has never been easier.
    That works for a short while but if it happens longer term, the government gets increasingly divorced from the concerns of the people etc it only takes a few of those paramilitary police to be killed and murdered by mass rioters in a particularly brutal fashion and their weapons stolen for the makings of a violent revolution to be in the offing and government buildings to be stormed. Modern technology and social media makes a well organised revolution easier than ever before too (see Egypt, Libya etc) and even a kitchen knife can be a weapon if needed
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    By the way, I assume everyone has seen the story about Tony Blair considering a return to front line politics: https://www.ft.com/content/f5b14190-8c7b-11e6-8aa5-f79f5696c731
  • MTimT said:

    Which hemisphere? North or West or Pacific?
    All three of them have got places with millions of very poor people.

    Assuming she means Northern that still includes places like Haiti and Cuba as well as Mexico.

    Clinton wants open borders with Haiti, Mexico and Cuba? Good luck explaining that to Middle America.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016

    Less, in fact. Not only will not Trump resign but he cannot resign. His name is literally on the ballots.
    He can resign any time he likes, his name will still be on the ballot but the ballots cast with his name on will be counted for the new nominee not Trump.

    And the RNC can nominate whoever they like once Trump resigns.

    I insist on bringing that up because it's clear that Trump is not up to the job and neither is Hillary, the best thing for america and the world is for Trump to resign so that Hillary loses too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,552
    edited October 2016
    MTimT said:

    No, she was paid $250k a pop for future political influence.
    How dare you suggest such a thing. Next you will be telling me those $1 million an hour speeches that Bill gives in far flung corners of the world aren't for the good of the charrrdddieee, but are for the same reason.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    I don't agree at all. The UK was rightly described as a democracy long before universal suffrage. The right to vote is the icing on the democratic cake.
    I'd say it's rather tricky to claim democracy without the right to vote?

    "Ankh-Morpork had dallied with many forms of government and had ended up with that form of democracy known as One Man, One Vote. The Patrician was the Man; he had the Vote.”
  • HYUFD said:

    Her

    That works for a short while but if it happens longer term, the government gets increasingly divorced from the concerns of the people etc it only takes a few of those paramilitary police to be killed and murdered by mass rioters in a particularly brutal fashion and their weapons stolen for the makings of a violent revolution to be in the offing and government buildings to be stormed. Modern technology and social media makes a well organised revolution easier than ever before too and even a kitchen knife can be a weapon if needed
    As is still awaited in North Korea et al?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    There is more to come on Trump.

    A while back I said that a key figure for pressure from those in the GOP opposed to Trump was Mike Pence. Basically pressure him into jumping ship late on.

    I wonder if they are working on it now?




  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    corporeal said:

    I'd say it's rather tricky to claim democracy without the right to vote?

    "Ankh-Morpork had dallied with many forms of government and had ended up with that form of democracy known as One Man, One Vote. The Patrician was the Man; he had the Vote.”
    But if the Patrician has the vote, but not anyone else, in what sense is it a supreme right?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119
    edited October 2016
    Fox national Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 6% Stein 2%. 70% of Trump backers support him 'strongly' 57% of Clinton supporters support her 'strongly'
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/07/fox-news-poll-clinton-edges-trump-by-two-points-one-month-ahead-election.html
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    @rcs1000

    Yes, it suggests a new party. One could envisage such a grouping made of SaneLabour, the Liberals and the Cameroons. I would vote for it.
  • Jobabob said:

    No. We was is Essex English.
    Respec'!

    Sunny P :)
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    But if the Patrician has the vote, but not anyone else, in what sense is it a supreme right?
    That was a humorous characterisation of the idea of democracy without universal suffrage.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    Jobabob said:

    @rcs1000

    Yes, it suggests a new party. One could envisage such a grouping made of SaneLabour, the Liberals and the Cameroons. I would vote for it.

    The last thing such a party would need is an association with Tony Blair.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, I assume everyone has seen the story about Tony Blair considering a return to front line politics: https://www.ft.com/content/f5b14190-8c7b-11e6-8aa5-f79f5696c731

    These rumours have been circulating all day. Quite how he would go about it - and how many people would be willing to listen to him if he did - God alone knows.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Yeah Trump ain't resigning.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    But if the Patrician has the vote, but not anyone else, in what sense is it a supreme right?
    It is the 'supreme' right as it is reserved for the 'supreme' being.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016
    <
    Jobabob said:

    @rcs1000

    Yes, it suggests a new party. One could envisage such a grouping made of SaneLabour, the Liberals and the Cameroons. I would vote for it.

    Perhaps it migbt be called the Liberal Party? It would if they were honest.
  • These rumours have been circulating all day. Quite how he would go about it - and how many people would be willing to listen to him if he did - God alone knows.
    I am sure God is sick of hearing about it....
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Respec'!

    Sunny P :)
    :smile:
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    And on cue Wikileaks releases some emails related to Clinton.

    Timing eh, got to protect their man.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Y0kel said:

    There is more to come on Trump.

    A while back I said that a key figure for pressure from those in the GOP opposed to Trump was Mike Pence. Basically pressure him into jumping ship late on.

    I wonder if they are working on it now?




    Pence is going for 2020, if he abandons Trump he will lose the gains he made by appearing loyal to his party and a better persona than Trump.

    The daily contrast between the incompetence and crass of Trump makes Pence look like JFK in waiting, the VP debate showed it clearly.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    The last thing such a party would need is an association with Tony Blair.
    That's the weak point in the plan
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    MTimT said:

    No, she was paid $250k a pop for future political influence.
    I think it's a bit more complicated than that.

    About two years ago I met with Hillary Clinton.

    Why?

    Because I am a fund manager and went to Sandford Bernstein's "Strategic Decisions Conference" in New York. Hillary gave a speech, and then spend about three hours doing little sit downs with three or four investors for 15 minutes apiece.

    Sandford Bernstein - a big US broker - gave 1,000 of its investors the chance to hear Hillary, and 50 of them a chance to sit down and chat with her. That's a pretty good way of encouraging investors to do business with Sandford Bernstein. And I'd bet they got more than $250,000 of business from it.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    HYUFD said:

    Fox national Clinton 44% Trump 42% Johnson 6% Stein 2%. 70% of Trump backers support him 'strongly' 57% of Clinton supporters support her 'strongly'
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/07/fox-news-poll-clinton-edges-trump-by-two-points-one-month-ahead-election.html

    decent for Trump but looks like an outlier. Be interested to see if the other polls show that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119
    619 said:

    decent for Trump but looks like an outlier. Be interested to see if the other polls show that.
    The post VP debate polls are generally showing it tighter
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think it's a bit more complicated than that.

    About two years ago I met with Hillary Clinton.

    Why?

    Because I am a fund manager and went to Sandford Bernstein's "Strategic Decisions Conference" in New York. Hillary gave a speech, and then spend about three hours doing little sit downs with three or four investors for 15 minutes apiece.

    Sandford Bernstein - a big US broker - gave 1,000 of its investors the chance to hear Hillary, and 50 of them a chance to sit down and chat with her. That's a pretty good way of encouraging investors to do business with Sandford Bernstein. And I'd bet they got more than $250,000 of business from it.
    And what was your impression of Hiliary "You Know" Clinton, other than she says "You Know" more often than a teenager?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    I think it's a bit more complicated than that.

    About two years ago I met with Hillary Clinton.

    Why?

    Because I am a fund manager and went to Sandford Bernstein's "Strategic Decisions Conference" in New York. Hillary gave a speech, and then spend about three hours doing little sit downs with three or four investors for 15 minutes apiece.

    Sandford Bernstein - a big US broker - gave 1,000 of its investors the chance to hear Hillary, and 50 of them a chance to sit down and chat with her. That's a pretty good way of encouraging investors to do business with Sandford Bernstein. And I'd bet they got more than $250,000 of business from it.
    Robert, I see hobnobbing with Hillary rubbed off on you! "Met with"???? ;)

    Thanks for the explanation. Yes, I can see how that would be a good marketing stunt.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, I assume everyone has seen the story about Tony Blair considering a return to front line politics: https://www.ft.com/content/f5b14190-8c7b-11e6-8aa5-f79f5696c731

    Not worth the read.

    He will rival the LD for insignificance, minus the 8 MP's they got.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431

    These rumours have been circulating all day. Quite how he would go about it - and how many people would be willing to listen to him if he did - God alone knows.
    Will Straw has signed up as campaign director.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    HYUFD said:

    The post VP debate polls are generally showing it tighter
    Can't see why the VP debate would move anything
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    HYUFD said:

    The post VP debate polls are generally showing it tighter
    i think pussygate is really going to screw him over now. all over the news, everyone is talking about it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Will Straw has signed up as campaign director.
    LOL...would could possibly go wrong. Aren't the plod investigating him?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119

    As is still awaited in North Korea et al?
    Everybody in North Korea is so brainwashed from birth there are never any riots anyway as they see the Supreme Leader as a God, if the majority ever did turn against the regime there would be a swift coup and Kim would be hanging from the nearest lamppost!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, I assume everyone has seen the story about Tony Blair considering a return to front line politics: https://www.ft.com/content/f5b14190-8c7b-11e6-8aa5-f79f5696c731

    I would imagine that he would have a great deal of trouble getting to be a Labour candidate (essentially impossible). No other party would touch him.

    Some kind of weird think tank thing which involves someone paying lots of money into the Blair Foundation, in return for the occasional speech?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431

    And what was your impression of Hiliary "You Know" Clinton, other than she says "You Know" more often than a teenager?
    She's clearly very bright.

    But I didn't warm to her in person. There was no connection, no sense of interest in other human beings.

    If I voted for her, it would only be on the basis that Donald Trump would be even worse. (And I can't vote as I'm not American.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119
    Speedy said:

    Pence is going for 2020, if he abandons Trump he will lose the gains he made by appearing loyal to his party and a better persona than Trump.

    The daily contrast between the incompetence and crass of Trump makes Pence look like JFK in waiting, the VP debate showed it clearly.
    If Trump-Pence loses so does Pence's chances of being president, no losing VP candidate has ever won their party's nomination at the subsequent election since WW2
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    Speedy said:

    Not worth the read.

    He will rival the LD for insignificance, minus the 8 MP's they got.
    I suspect Tony Blair brings in more in revenue (for himself) every year than the LibDems do in total donations.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    619 said:

    decent for Trump but looks like an outlier. Be interested to see if the other polls show that.
    I don't trust FOX, Reuters, Marist and Rassmussen polls.

    My average daily tracking poll has Trump slumping every day since Oct.1st, like a rug was pulled under him, or like the republican voters collectively said ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.

    Hillary is barely moving at just under 47% as usual.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119
    619 said:

    i think pussygate is really going to screw him over now. all over the news, everyone is talking about it.
    I doubt it, most of his core supporters will not have done much different themselves and the main people who will be offended will be feminist women who are already behind Hillary anyway
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119
    RobD said:

    Can't see why the VP debate would move anything
    Pence won and both Rasmussen and now Fox have seen their polls tighten in the aftermath
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431

    LOL...would could possibly go wrong. Aren't the plod investigating him?
    I was joking... but after his triumphant performance in the referendum campanign, surely looking after Tony Blair is his next "challenge".
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Germany to bar EU migrants claiming benefits

    A draft bill would see EU migrants who move to Germany denied "Hartz IV" unemployment and welfare benefits for five years."

    http://europe.newsweek.com/germany-benefits-eu-migrants-crackdown-angela-merkel-507281
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,552
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    She's clearly very bright.

    But I didn't warm to her in person. There was no connection, no sense of interest in other human beings.

    If I voted for her, it would only be on the basis that Donald Trump would be even worse. (And I can't vote as I'm not American.)
    Watching form a far on tv, the Clinton-Bot-2000 always comes across as incapable of showing much genuine enthusiasm for engaging with other people. From your limited personal experience, it sounds like it isn't even a matter of the basement dwellers vs the people she is more used to encountered on a daily basis.

    Where as Trump has plenty of enthusiasm for engaging with other people...trying to impress other people of just how fabulous he is.
  • SeanT said:

    Bloody hell

    Care to elaborate on that?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt it, most of his core supporters will not have done much different themselves and the main people who will be offended will be feminist women who are already behind Hillary anyway
    You are surely right that it won't change many minds. The US is already highly polarized.

    But it's all part of a drip, drip about Donald Trump's suitability to become President. And small things add up. If a few tens of middle class Republican women in Nevada or New Hampshire decide not to go to the polls in a month's time, it could result in quite a few electoral votes ending up in Hillary's column.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    rcs1000 said:

    You are surely right that it won't change many minds. The US is already highly polarized.

    But it's all part of a drip, drip about Donald Trump's suitability to become President. And small things add up. If a few tens of middle class Republican women in Nevada or New Hampshire decide not to go to the polls in a month's time, it could result in quite a few electoral votes ending up in Hillary's column.
    yeah, he has massive women problem. this doesnt help
  • HYUFD said:

    If Trump-Pence loses so does Pence's chances of being president, no losing VP candidate has ever won their party's nomination at the subsequent election since WW2
    Nixon?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    AndyJS said:

    "Germany to bar EU migrants claiming benefits

    A draft bill would see EU migrants who move to Germany denied "Hartz IV" unemployment and welfare benefits for five years."

    http://europe.newsweek.com/germany-benefits-eu-migrants-crackdown-angela-merkel-507281

    Eminently sensible, and I expect that countries across the EU will all change to bar migrants from claiming benefits. One of the curious side effects of Brexit*.

    * For the record, I think the UK could have easily instituted an effective bar on EU citizens claiming benefits.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570

    I would imagine that he would have a great deal of trouble getting to be a Labour candidate (essentially impossible). No other party would touch him.

    Some kind of weird think tank thing which involves someone paying lots of money into the Blair Foundation, in return for the occasional speech?
    Progress Party.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    619 said:

    i think pussygate is really going to screw him over now. all over the news, everyone is talking about it.
    are they? Or is the hurricane taking all the news?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Jobabob said:

    That's the weak point in the plan
    Surely Blair is just trying to frighten Labour into heading him off by working towards a new non-Corbyn leader?
  • I remember a particularly prominent poster used to bang on about Cameron's massive women problem...whatever ever happened to him and that David Cameron?

    However, unlike the mythical Cameron women problem, it is clear The Donald is in big big doo doo before this latest helpful find by the media.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump-Pence loses so does Pence's chances of being president, no losing VP candidate has ever won their party's nomination at the subsequent election since WW2
    I think Pence has serious chances of getting the nomination in 2020 for the following reasons:

    1. He is a loyal Republican, unlike Ted Cruz or John Kasich.
    2. He can claim inheritance of the Trump movement but without Trump.
    3. Pence has proved to be capable, sensible and a winner on the debate stage.
    4. After 4 years of Hillary people will beg for morality, decency and a capable person, that spells Pence.
    5. Unlike the others Pence was never humiliated by being defeated by Trump in a primary.

    He has only 2 big problems:

    A. Staying in the limelight for the next 4 years.
    B. Paul Ryan may want to run, he would probably be his only rival if he does.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Speedy said:

    I think Pence has serious chances of getting the nomination in 2020 for the following reasons:

    1. He is a loyal Republican, unlike Ted Cruz or John Kasich.
    2. He can claim inheritance of the Trump movement but without Trump.
    3. Pence has proved to be capable, sensible and a winner on the debate stage.
    4. After 4 years of Hillary people will beg for morality, decency and a capable person, that spells Pence.
    5. Unlike the others Pence was never humiliated by being defeated by Trump in a primary.

    He has only 2 big problems:

    A. Staying in the limelight for the next 4 years.
    B. Paul Ryan may want to run, he would probably be his only rival if he does.
    Blimey, who knows. 4 years is a very long time in US politics. There's as likely to be some Governor somewhere who we have probably never even heard of who'll run and win.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Blimey, who knows. 4 years is a very long time in US politics. There's as likely to be some Governor somewhere who we have probably never even heard of who'll run and win.
    To kick the ball rolling:
    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/784377301181923329
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570

    Nixon?
    I dunno, Eisenhower was the first U.S. president constitutionally prevented from running for re-election, having served the newly instigated maximum two terms. So his VP didn't lose presumably?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119
    Speedy said:

    I think Pence has serious chances of getting the nomination in 2020 for the following reasons:

    1. He is a loyal Republican, unlike Ted Cruz or John Kasich.
    2. He can claim inheritance of the Trump movement but without Trump.
    3. Pence has proved to be capable, sensible and a winner on the debate stage.
    4. After 4 years of Hillary people will beg for morality, decency and a capable person, that spells Pence.
    5. Unlike the others Pence was never humiliated by being defeated by Trump in a primary.

    He has only 2 big problems:

    A. Staying in the limelight for the next 4 years.
    B. Paul Ryan may want to run, he would probably be his only rival if he does.
    Ryan will stay as speaker, Pence will fade by 2020 and he does not have the presence to be president. Both Ryan and Pence will have been on losing tickets by 2020 if Trump-Pence loses, Cruz will not and will be the one to beat
  • SeanT said:

    Best not. Big evening. Ooof.

    Are you in deepest darkest Devon ala Bovey Tracey?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119

    Nixon?
    Nixon was a winning VP with IKE, he lost in 1960 as the presidential nominee
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119
    rcs1000 said:

    You are surely right that it won't change many minds. The US is already highly polarized.

    But it's all part of a drip, drip about Donald Trump's suitability to become President. And small things add up. If a few tens of middle class Republican women in Nevada or New Hampshire decide not to go to the polls in a month's time, it could result in quite a few electoral votes ending up in Hillary's column.
    Middle class women who would have been offended by this type of thing will have switched to Hillary long ago anyway
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Speedy said:

    To kick the ball rolling:
    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/784377301181923329
    Name recognition.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Name recognition.
    Among Republicans only Pence gets 22%, Ryan and Trump get 13% each.

    But you can see why being the competent VP candidate next to the incompetent P candidate helps in the future.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    HYUFD said:

    Middle class women who would have been offended by this type of thing will have switched to Hillary long ago anyway
    Every single one? There won't be a single woman who decides not to go to the polling booth because she thinks Trump is a scumbag?
  • HYUFD said:

    Nixon was a winning VP with IKE, he lost in 1960 as the presidential nominee
    Yes of course!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    SeanT said:

    Wagner is a drug for highly intelligent cowards

    Is that an autocorrect of 'heroin'?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    rcs1000 said:

    Every single one? There won't be a single woman who decides not to go to the polling booth because she thinks Trump is a scumbag?
    There might not be a single man prepared to go to the polling booth to vote for trump if the sexual assault allegations get darker.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    SeanT said:

    Wagner is a drug for highly intelligent cowards

    Hey! I absolutely love Wagner = I'll take the 'highly intelligent' but coward - never!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Every single one? There won't be a single woman who decides not to go to the polling booth because she thinks Trump is a scumbag?
    Can you imagine the Town Hall questions towards Trump ?
    Especially from women ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Speedy said:

    Can you imagine the Town Hall question towards Trump ?
    Especially from women ?
    He better get practicing his apologies....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,119
    Pa
    Speedy said:

    To kick the ball rolling:
    https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/784377301181923329
    Palin was hot favourite in early 2012 polling, in the end it went to the losing runner-up, Romney
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Pong said:

    There might not be a single man prepared to go to the polling booth to vote for trump if the sexual assault allegations get darker.
    Feeling tempted tonight to put a huge wager on Clinton winning. 1.37 at moment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,552
    edited October 2016
    Speedy said:

    Can you imagine the Town Hall questions towards Trump ?
    Especially from women ?
    I am sure Team Clinton will ensure it is asked...not like they have form on this kind of stuff. They are well oiled political machine is working through the gears.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    He better get practicing his apologies....
    But Trump is against practicing for debates.
    You can see where this will lead:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFyPJH8BR3o
This discussion has been closed.