politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB could get squeezed in Witney and end up with a single figu

Surely with the absolutely rank job Mrs May is doing (Doctors deported en masse in chains, 1000 new grammar schools, failing to absolutely guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK) it will be the Tories in single figures?

Jonathan Easley of "The Hill" reports on independents breaking for Clinton in post debate Quinnipiac polling (528 adjusted Clinton +8) :

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/299830-poll-indies-break-for-clinton-as-national-lead-widens

Alistair said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Trump's "what have you got to lose / what have Clinton's ever done for you / I have created loads of jobs for non-whites" could have won him quite a bit of support among African American's if he didn't have this "minor" issue with saying racist stuff on a daily basis....

If fact if he had just nicked some of Bernie's sthick, shut up about building a wall and occasionally said hey I said things in the past i regret but I haven't called millions of people deplorable basement dwellers...against the Clinton-Bot-2000 he might have even won.

Can someone provide any quotes and sources for this apparent anti black racist hate talk he is alleged to be indulging in every day?

Just yesterday he defended his behaviour over the central park 5.

I gather he said he thought some black people convicted of a serious crime which was then thrown out were after all guity. Did he call them n*****s, C***s or similar racist language, no.

Sorry whether he is right or wrong, commenting on a notorious criminal case is not racist unless you use racist language or derogatory racial comments eg implying that such behaviour is only to be expected from [insert race]

If you want a bogeyword to have shock value dont dilute it to the extent a homeopathic practicioner dilutes a substance in water before administering it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Any idea when Corbyn might bother to finish his reshuffle?

If he still has to sort out all of the lower ranking positions then he may not be finished before this happens (allegedly):

https://twitter.com/CllrRobJames/status/784326162742808577

Hmmm...

Dixie said:

Last night's by-elections essentially a tale of 2 Labours. In strong areas, they did really well. In weak areas, they did really badly. But the key seats will be the marginals, and they will fight hard. Corbyn can't win, but Labour won't die.

Well quite. Even if Corbyn tests the floor of his party's support as John Major did in 1997, they'll still be the second party in Parliament by a very wide margin. If Labour is ever to be marginalised then this is only likely to happen through sustained decline over several electoral cycles.

chestnut said:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/business-usual-post-brexit-world/

French to invest in new manufacturing plant in NW England.

'Despite Brexit'

FPT:"I was visiting my family back in New York this week. I saw two PAC-sponsored ads on TV urging me to vote for "Republican candidates on your ballot." No mention of Trump's name at all. "

Possibly because New York isn't a swing state? But there are many Trump supporters saying the RNC is not GOTVing for Trump.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Any idea when Corbyn might bother to finish his reshuffle?

or even his réchauffé?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Alistair said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Trump's "what have you got to lose / what have Clinton's ever done for you / I have created loads of jobs for non-whites" could have won him quite a bit of support among African American's if he didn't have this "minor" issue with saying racist stuff on a daily basis....

If fact if he had just nicked some of Bernie's sthick, shut up about building a wall and occasionally said hey I said things in the past i regret but I haven't called millions of people deplorable basement dwellers...against the Clinton-Bot-2000 he might have even won.

Can someone provide any quotes and sources for this apparent anti black racist hate talk he is alleged to be indulging in every day?

Just yesterday he defended his behaviour over the central park 5.

I gather he said he thought some black people convicted of a serious crime which was then thrown out were after all guity. Did he call them n*****s, C***s or similar racist language, no.

Sorry whether he is right or wrong, commenting on a notorious criminal case is not racist unless you use racist language or derogatory racial comments eg implying that such behaviour is only to be expected from [insert race]

If you want a bogeyword to have shock value dont dilute it to the extent a homeopathic practicioner dilutes a substance in water before administering it.

Like when he took out anonymous ads agaisnt a competing casino development that was giing to be built by native Americans saying that Native American criminality was well know?

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/784449247630458881

Potentially very big news if correct. Presumably grants the pro-Corbyn faction the power to amend the leadership election rules. Far Left would then be firmly in command even if Corbyn left office e.g. due to ill health. Last barrier to the complete takeover of the party removed?

Theresa May PM for life!

This is one of the most unbelievable and blackly funny things I have read in a very long time:

Leader of the Opposition – Rt. Hon. Jeremy Corbyn MP

Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer – John McDonnell MP

Shadow Home Secretary – Diane Abbott MP


Except, it's no laughing matter. God help Britain.

rottenborough said:

Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

I could imagine her in a summit meeting. "Is this some kind of pub quiz? Where's my glass of wine?"

geoffw said:

The word in Westminster is that Ashworth was told he could take shadow Health and lose his seat on the NEC, or reject it and lose it anyway. Ashworth made the deal.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/corby-tightens-grip/

Surely Jezza can't just remove people from the NEC though?

O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

I could imagine her in a summit meeting. "Is this some kind of pub quiz? Where's my glass of wine?"

You have to be in Government to go to summit meetings, so she will not need to worry.

Artist said:

There are some decent areas for Labour in Witney, I'd expect them to get a solid enough share, similar to 2015 unless the Lib Dem campaign really takes off.

I think so too. Some of the strongest Constituency Party support for Corbyn was in the shires.

The 15% band looks value to me.

Monksfield said:

rottenborough said:

This is one of the most unbelievable and blackly funny things I have read in a very long time:

Leader of the Opposition – Rt. Hon. Jeremy Corbyn MP

Shadow Foreign Secretary – Emily Thornberry MP

Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer – John McDonnell MP

Shadow Home Secretary – Diane Abbott MP


Except, it's no laughing matter. God help Britain.

Terrible. Almost as bad as someone who has previously been exposed for his poor judgement being put in charge of Brexit negotiations.

I'm not sure we know who is actually in charge of Brexit negotiations. Indeed, I think May has deliberately engineered such a situation.

nunu said:

FPT:"I was visiting my family back in New York this week. I saw two PAC-sponsored ads on TV urging me to vote for "Republican candidates on your ballot." No mention of Trump's name at all. "

Possibly because New York isn't a swing state? But there are many Trump supporters saying the RNC is not GOTVing for Trump.

We have seen a couple of Trump ads on the CBS breakfast news here in the NYC media market recently. My understanding is such ads are a local buy, but perhaps I am wrong and they were part of a national buy. If they are local, it seems a perverse waste of money.

rottenborough said:

Artist said:

Labour's Shadow Cabinet is basically a who's who of Corbyn supporters now.

http://www.labour.org.uk/people/filter/c/shadow-cabinet

The knock on effect of that is that he won't be able to hide behind 'plotting' MPs at the next leadership challenge and if these MPs lose faith in him over time, it'd be telling.

Seems to be an open act of war. Unity is dust.

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/784449085826891776

Corbyn taking a firm grip on the party, it would seem. We are back to the situation before the coup attempt: do Labour MPs concentrate on trying to fend off deselection (and those in marginals pray that they survive the next election.) Or have they any new ideas - or any fight - left in them?

foxinsoxuk said:

rottenborough said:

Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.

So, if I have understood this right, he has handed NEC majority to Corbyn? Or does the new NEC Scots and Welsh places mean we are back to square one?

Florida - Gravis/Breitbart

Clinton 47 .. Trump 45

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/07/breitbartgravis-poll-clinton-and-trump-tied-in-florida-rubio-leads-murphy-in-senate-contest/

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

Surely with the absolutely rank job Mrs May is doing (Doctors deported en masse in chains, 1000 new grammar schools, failing to absolutely guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK) it will be the Tories in single figures?

Far from it she has a big poll lead

Oh, I'm sure it will slump after the Tories disastrous conference.......

O/T:

France have gone 1-0 down to Bulgaria after 6 minutes.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/live/2016/oct/07/france-bulgaria-greece-cyprus-world-cup-2018-qualifying-live

Clinton back above 80% on 538 prediction.

NickPalmer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rottenborough said:

Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.

Jon has been dooing a lot of the daily press work attacking the Tories over policy announcements at their confernece and previously. He supported Cooper in the leadership election last year (and Watson) and I think Smith this year, but he's seen as a safe pair of hands whom nobody dislikes. He's married to another leading Midlands Labour activist, Emilie Oldknow, who used to run the regional office.

I truly don't mean offence by this Nick - but the current Labour response team are slow and seem to be still fighting the 2015 election. Response to May's speech took an hour IIRC.

It could of course be because the entire Labour Party are ignoring Brexit, or it could simply be a lack of leadership drive.

CarlottaVance said:

Surely with the absolutely rank job Mrs May is doing (Doctors deported en masse in chains, 1000 new grammar schools, failing to absolutely guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK) it will be the Tories in single figures?

I think the Lib Dems could run fairly close.

foxinsoxuk said:

rottenborough said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rottenborough said:

Can someone on PB who understands Kremlinology explain the Jon Ashworth, NEC, health job events?

Jon Ashworth is a local MP to me (Leicester South) and I have followed his career with interest. He is a Labour Loyalist even more reluctant to criticise the leader than Nick P. He is also well connected with the Unions, and the organisational structures of the Party. He is a classic apparatchik, of the Left but more pragmatic than the Corbynistas.

I think he could easily become the post Corbyn leader as a John Major like compromise acceptable to both factions. I think he is value as a result.

So, if I have understood this right, he has handed NEC majority to Corbyn? Or does the new NEC Scots and Welsh places mean we are back to square one?

I think he has to be replaced, but I think the differences between the factions can be exagerated. There are substantial grey areas in the middle.

Ashworth did back Smith, but is willing to serve in a Corbyn shadow cabinet, in what is (to Labour) a critical role. I think that puts him between or perhaps independent of factions.

I guess NHS is a pretty decent role to have, in sense that you are unlikely to be arguing with Corbyn as long as you feel it should be 100% public service etc etc.

AndyJS said:

Monksfield said:

O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.

At least.

This is a solid blue seat.

Speedy said:

So the LD are going to lose their deposit again.

I'm offering 10-1, if you want to bet on the LibDems losing their deposit.

AndyJS said:

Monksfield said:

O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.

I wouldn't put it past Labour to hold on to 2nd place.

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

So the LD are going to lose their deposit again.

I'm offering 10-1, if you want to bet on the LibDems losing their deposit.

Are you offering bets on who gets the most votes out of LDs and UKIP? (I think LDs will).

My best guess would a Conservative hold by about 4,000 over the Lib Dems.

SouthamObserver said:

RaRaRasputin said:

How exactly could Corbyn force Ashworth out of his NEC seat?? I understand that three seats are allocated to shadow cabinet members but why would Ashworth moving to health exclude him from sitting on the NEC??

He'd have been sacked from the shadow cabinet, so would have lost the seat anyway.

Thanks a lot for the reply. Doesn't this mean that Corbyn has always had de facto control of the NEC as, even when he was outnumbered a few weeks ago, he could just make the necessary adjustments to the shadow cabinet and gain control??

chestnut said:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/business-usual-post-brexit-world/

French to invest in new manufacturing plant in NW England.

In 2015, the amount of Gross Capital Formation (i.e. investment) in the UK economy was $493bn. This is an announcement of... £20m...

Every day in the UK, between companies and the government, $1.2bn is spent in capital expenditure. This is 2% of one day's spending.

Now, it may very well be that investment is completely unaffected by Brexit, and that is what I hope.

Unfortunately, the people I talk to (and in my job as a fund manager, I meet the managements of major companies every day) are delaying decisions about the UK. Not because they think the UK has no future, and they're certainly not cancelling things or pulling out, but because they have no idea what Britain's relationship with the world will be three years from now.

Companies use models to make investment decisions, and right now their spreadsheets have lots of cells they can't fill in, because there are so many unknowns. I was asked by the CFO of a Taiwanese company what tariffs the UK would have with Taiwan post Brexit. I said I honestly had no idea. We need to make these things clear as soon as possible, because my Taiwanese friend might wait six months or even a year, but he won't wait forever.

There is a huge amount of work needed to make Brexit work well, and if we do a poor job in the next two years it could have serious implications for the next two decades.

AndyJS said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

So the LD are going to lose their deposit again.

I'm offering 10-1, if you want to bet on the LibDems losing their deposit.

Are you offering bets on who gets the most votes out of LDs and UKIP? (I think LDs will).

I think the LDs will get around twice the UKIP share (my guess would be 21% vs about 9%).

If anyone wants to bet on UKIP beating the LibDems, I'll offer 5-2.

Mortimer said:

AndyJS said:

Monksfield said:

O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.

At least.

This is a solid blue seat.

I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.

SouthamObserver said:

RaRaRasputin said:

SouthamObserver said:

RaRaRasputin said:

How exactly could Corbyn force Ashworth out of his NEC seat?? I understand that three seats are allocated to shadow cabinet members but why would Ashworth moving to health exclude him from sitting on the NEC??

He'd have been sacked from the shadow cabinet, so would have lost the seat anyway.

Thanks a lot for the reply. Doesn't this mean that Corbyn has always had de facto control of the NEC as, even when he was outnumbered a few weeks ago, he could just make the necessary adjustments to the shadow cabinet and gain control??

If he does have control, yes. But he may still be one short thanks to the new Scottish and Welsh seats.

Thanks again, very illuminating.

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

AndyJS said:

Monksfield said:

O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.

At least.

This is a solid blue seat.

I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.

Sounds about right to me. I think the LDs in Second placein the 20+% bracket would be considered reasonable progress.

Jeremy Corbyn has completed a reshuffle of his shadow cabinet, giving deputy Tom Watson the culture brief and bringing back several MPs who quit in protest at his leadership this summer.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37584531

Adam Knight Independent candidate in Witney and former MD of Goldman Sachs is now advising his supporters to vote Lib Dem .

Black_Rook said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

AndyJS said:

Monksfield said:

O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.

At least.

This is a solid blue seat.

I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.

I'm going to make myself look extremely silly, but it wouldn't be the first time, so what the Hell: why does everybody seem automatically to assume that the Lib Dems are going to poll a decent, perhaps even strong, second place in this by-election? I know they've been having some good local council by-election results recently, but these are all over the shop in a variety of different seats and they haven't been making big strides everywhere. The local district council in this part of Oxfordshire currently has as many Labour members on it as LDs (though admittedly very few of each, compared with a great phalanx of Tories.)

Is there evidence emanating from this part of the world to suggest a major Lib Dem revival is on the cards, or are people simply thinking "southern seat + Tory Government = Lib Dem challenge," as if we were in the mid-1990s rather than the mid-2010s, and the Coalition and Corbynmania had never happened?

I think the Lib Dems could benefit from the area having voted Remain.

Sean_F said:

Black_Rook said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

AndyJS said:

Monksfield said:

O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.

At least.

This is a solid blue seat.

I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.

I'm going to make myself look extremely silly, but it wouldn't be the first time, so what the Hell: why does everybody seem automatically to assume that the Lib Dems are going to poll a decent, perhaps even strong, second place in this by-election? I know they've been having some good local council by-election results recently, but these are all over the shop in a variety of different seats and they haven't been making big strides everywhere. The local district council in this part of Oxfordshire currently has as many Labour members on it as LDs (though admittedly very few of each, compared with a great phalanx of Tories.)

Is there evidence emanating from this part of the world to suggest a major Lib Dem revival is on the cards, or are people simply thinking "southern seat + Tory Government = Lib Dem challenge," as if we were in the mid-1990s rather than the mid-2010s, and the Coalition and Corbynmania had never happened?

I think the Lib Dems could benefit from the area having voted Remain.

Do the Tories have a candidate yet? Are they a Brexiteer and if so a hard one or a soft one?

Black_Rook said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

AndyJS said:

Monksfield said:

O/T I think the yellow peril will fall short but by less than 2000 votes

I think the Tories will win by at least 5,000.

At least.

This is a solid blue seat.

I posted my forecasts a few days ago, but I'd reckon on the Conservatives in the high 40s, the LibDems hoovering up a lot of Labour support and doing a good job getting their vote out in a low turnout election (say 21%), Labour and UKIP on about 10% each, and the Greens retaining their deposit.

I'm going to make myself look extremely silly, but it wouldn't be the first time, so what the Hell: why does everybody seem automatically to assume that the Lib Dems are going to poll a decent, perhaps even strong, second place in this by-election? I know they've been having some good local council by-election results recently, but these are all over the shop in a variety of different seats and they haven't been making big strides everywhere. The local district council in this part of Oxfordshire currently has as many Labour members on it as LDs (though admittedly very few of each, compared with a great phalanx of Tories.)

Is there evidence emanating from this part of the world to suggest a major Lib Dem revival is on the cards, or are people simply thinking "southern seat + Tory Government = Lib Dem challenge," as if we were in the mid-1990s rather than the mid-2010s, and the Coalition and Corbynmania had never happened?

I'm offering 10-1 on the LibDems to lose their deposit and 5-2 on Ukip to beat the LibDems of you want to put your money where your mouth is.