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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All our thoughts should be focussed on wishing Steven Woolfe a

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  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Indigo said:

    I think Arron Banks should say what he really thinks (remembering that Hamilton is on the NEC)

    He lashed out at the NEC, which was heavily criticised for refusing to accept Mr Woolfe's candidacy for the leadership during the last contest because the papers were filed a few minutes late.

    'This body is populated by a motley collection of amateurs; leftovers from a bygone age, when Ukip was a ragtag band of volunteers on the fringes of British politics.
    'Watching them try to run the modern political movement that (Nigel) Farage built is like watching a team of circus clowns trying to carry out a pit stop at the Silverstone Grand Prix,' he wrote in the Guardian.

    'If James hadn't put her name forward at the last minute, we would have had nothing but a rabble of no-name, no-talent nobodies to choose from. These people would be out of their depth in a paddling pool, and couldn't be more unfit to run a modern political party.'


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3824837/Ukip-donor-says-party-run-circus-clowns-new-leadership-favourite-Steven-Woolfe-admits-considered-defecting-TORIES.html

    Arron Banks is right on that.

    One is so fascinated to think that Farage has total control and authority over UKIP as a one man band, but didn't control it's NEC.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Speedy said:

    Indigo said:

    SeanT said:

    This reminds me of the OJ murder, when the Juice got Loose, on live TV

    Incidentally, if Woolfe makes a full, speedy recovery (which is looking more likely, thank God) might he get a sympathy vote, and win?

    He could then threaten Labour in the North.

    All of British politics might just have turned on a small weird punch-up in Strasbourg.

    I doubt Woolfe is a threat to Labour. He's clearly a Tory in all but name. A northern accent doesn't change that. The Hookem wing of UKIP looks a much bigger threat.

    But he is mixed race and grow up on moss side, which immediately neuters two of the main attack lines against UKIP. As far as I can tell he has never been active in Tory politics.
    The problem for Woolfe is the defection story, that he had agreed to defect to the Tories but James's resignation stopped him from going to Birmingham to officially defect.
    Agreed. Paul Nuttall is the better choice if they are going after the Northern WWC vote anyway.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    JackW said:
    A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.

    Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    On topic, If you can't trust a meeting between a group of far right racists to be peaceful I don't know what the world is coming to.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016
    619 said:

    On topic, If you can't trust a meeting between a group of far right racists to be peaceful I don't know what the world is coming to.

    You are very fond of calling people racist, seems to be one of your favourite words.

    As for far-right, could you please explain how a party of the far-right is hoovering up LABOUR votes ?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Who's sneering and making jokes?

    Unbelievable.

    I hope David Aaronovich does not have cause to regret this even more: The Woolfe coverage just shows the MSM's anti-Ukip bias. This kind of thing happens all the time in the Liberal Democrats.

    When someone picked him up on it he replied 'Keep it for Russia Today'.....

    Edit....and he clearly has a short memory.....did Rinka die in vain?
    David was total twat here. He's as readable as Parris now - tiresome axe grinding week after week.

    I now skip straight to the comments.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284

    Whatever you think of UKIP ("not a lot" in my case) you can only set politics aside on a day like this and hope/pray for his recovery.

    Amen to that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    619 said:

    On topic, If you can't trust a meeting between a group of far right racists to be peaceful I don't know what the world is coming to.

    That's uncalled for. Violent thugs hide at the fringes of all political parties.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:
    A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.

    Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
    The Republican Senators are not called Trump, that's why they are winning.

    If Trump had a brain he would resign and let someone not called Donald Trump run things for him.

    I'm not surprised about the Arizona numbers, Trump is back there campaigning for the first time in 2 months, and he went to Nevada for the first time ever.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2016
    JackW said:
    He's king of the trolls, that guy.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    619 said:

    On topic, If you can't trust a meeting between a group of far right racists to be peaceful I don't know what the world is coming to.

    Aww, because you and all your relatives and model friend Guardian readers agree - without the dolphin sex and other dubious sympathises.

    I still can't get over your professed nil personal knowledge of USA. Yet pontificate about it. Seriously?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Indigo said:

    SeanT said:

    This reminds me of the OJ murder, when the Juice got Loose, on live TV

    Incidentally, if Woolfe makes a full, speedy recovery (which is looking more likely, thank God) might he get a sympathy vote, and win?

    He could then threaten Labour in the North.

    All of British politics might just have turned on a small weird punch-up in Strasbourg.

    I doubt Woolfe is a threat to Labour. He's clearly a Tory in all but name. A northern accent doesn't change that. The Hookem wing of UKIP looks a much bigger threat.

    But he is mixed race and grow up on moss side, which immediately neuters two of the main attack lines against UKIP. As far as I can tell he has never been active in Tory politics.
    Woolfe was a Conservative Councillor for Colwyn Bay on Conwy Council before defecting to UKIP.

    I am not too surprised he was considering returning to the Tories.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:
    A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.

    Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
    Quite so.

    IMHO Clinton leads nationally by 4/5 points and has pushed Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and new Hampshire off the table. Nevada, Florida and North Carolina moving toward her too but still in play. Trump still just ahead in Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.

    The debate hit Trump hard and his Latino numbers are horrible. He needs a good win on Sunday or it's over bar the voting, that of course is already happening in some swing states, where the evidence so far is ugly for Donald.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    SeanT said:

    JonathanD said:

    SeanT said:

    The £ is falling further today

    http://www.cityam.com/250859/frosty-reception-sterling-pound-slips-again?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.

    So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?

    We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.

    ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
    It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
    It feels as if the Bank didn't take into account the automatic stabiliser effect currency depreciation has on economic performance. Must do better.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2016
    SeanT said:

    It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.

    It's too early to say that their other predictions were 'seriously awry'. Their short-term forecast was for the two-year period following the decision (and arguably that period hasn't really started yet, because I don't think they factored in the delay to triggering Article 50).
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,895
    JackW said:

    Tennessee - MTSU

    Clinton 40 .. Trump 50

    http://mtsupoll.org/2016/10/04/f2016pres/

    538 has Tennessee moving slightly to Clinton, but she still only has a 2.8% chance of winning the 11 electoral votes.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John Stevens
    Steven Woolfe: 'I am being kept in overnight awaiting secondary tests to make sure everything is fine'
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2016
    Neil Hamilton on BBC News Channel: "What I've heard second hand is that Stephen picked a fight and came off worst".

    www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=57&v=iSqCG9CkJzk
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    I'm pretty sure Britain reads the editorial of El Pais every breakfast.

    That article deserves the derision that it deserves, and Mr.Giro seems to have a low opinion of Eastern Europe ironically.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,895
    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:
    A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.

    Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
    Quite so.

    IMHO Clinton leads nationally by 4/5 points and has pushed Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and new Hampshire off the table. Nevada, Florida and North Carolina moving toward her too but still in play. Trump still just ahead in Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.

    The debate hit Trump hard and his Latino numbers are horrible. He needs a good win on Sunday or it's over bar the voting, that of course is already happening in some swing states, where the evidence so far is ugly for Donald.
    538 has Clinton ahead in Ohio.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    SeanT said:

    This reminds me of the OJ murder, when the Juice got Loose, on live TV

    Incidentally, if Woolfe makes a full, speedy recovery (which is looking more likely, thank God) might he get a sympathy vote, and win?

    He could then threaten Labour in the North.

    All of British politics might just have turned on a small weird punch-up in Strasbourg.

    I doubt Woolfe is a threat to Labour. He's clearly a Tory in all but name. A northern accent doesn't change that. The Hookem wing of UKIP looks a much bigger threat.

    But he is mixed race and grow up on moss side, which immediately neuters two of the main attack lines against UKIP. As far as I can tell he has never been active in Tory politics.
    Woolfe was a Conservative Councillor for Colwyn Bay on Conwy Council before defecting to UKIP.

    I am not too surprised he was considering returning to the Tories.
    Someone needs to update his Wikipedia entry, its not mentioned on there.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    AndyJS said:

    Neil Hamilton on BBC News Channel: "What I've heard second hand is that Stephen picked a fight and came off worst".

    www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=57&v=iSqCG9CkJzk

    What a dickhead.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:
    A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.

    Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
    Quite so.

    IMHO Clinton leads nationally by 4/5 points and has pushed Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and new Hampshire off the table. Nevada, Florida and North Carolina moving toward her too but still in play. Trump still just ahead in Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.

    The debate hit Trump hard and his Latino numbers are horrible. He needs a good win on Sunday or it's over bar the voting, that of course is already happening in some swing states, where the evidence so far is ugly for Donald.
    Emerson is a landline only phone polling company as well, so I think some caution with there polls are warranted.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    SeanT said:

    JonathanD said:

    SeanT said:

    The £ is falling further today

    http://www.cityam.com/250859/frosty-reception-sterling-pound-slips-again?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.

    So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?

    We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.

    ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
    It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
    GDP is calculated, at its simplest, as:

    Consumption + Investment* + Net Exports

    * Investment is sometimes called Gross Capital Formation.

    The major mechanism, in the short to medium term, by which Brexit could cause an economic impact is through firms delaying investment decisions, and therefore the 18% of the economy that is investment falling markedly. It is also worth noting that a significant chunk of the investment portion is construction.

    In the short term, investment doesn't change very much. The question is (a) how big is the slowdown in investment decisions, and (b) when it will affect the GDP number (investment decisions typically cause action on a 12 to 18 month lag).

    The part of the forecasts for a slowdown that was wrong was that it was assumed that Brexit would (or could) cause a slowdown in consumer spending, presumably on the basis that people would be so panicked they wouldn't be purchasing. That's not happened. However, there is a problem we do need to be aware of: the British consumer is still spending more than he earns, as is shown in our massive current account deficit. This does make our economy a bit more vulnerable that it appears.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Breightbart has released a national Poll: Clinton 44/Trump 44.

    ALL TOO PLAY FOR
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    That's got to be fake. Otherwise we've all be transported on to the set of a carry on movie.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    619 said:

    Breightbart has released a national Poll: Clinton 44/Trump 44.

    ALL TOO PLAY FOR

    'too'?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Mike Hook'em arrested by Michelle Catch'em.
    Ha.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    JonathanD said:

    SeanT said:

    The £ is falling further today

    http://www.cityam.com/250859/frosty-reception-sterling-pound-slips-again?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.

    So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?

    We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.

    ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
    It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
    It feels as if the Bank didn't take into account the automatic stabiliser effect currency depreciation has on economic performance. Must do better.
    I think that is right. Although it is a one-off benefit. Ultimately financial discipline is a better way to deal with your problems. That's why the Germans are very negative about currency depreciation. You find it hard competing at €x per $? Go and make yourself more competitive!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    JonathanD said:

    SeanT said:

    The £ is falling further today

    http://www.cityam.com/250859/frosty-reception-sterling-pound-slips-again?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.

    So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?

    We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.

    ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
    It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
    GDP is calculated, at its simplest, as:

    Consumption + Investment* + Net Exports

    * Investment is sometimes called Gross Capital Formation.

    The major mechanism, in the short to medium term, by which Brexit could cause an economic impact is through firms delaying investment decisions, and therefore the 18% of the economy that is investment falling markedly. It is also worth noting that a significant chunk of the investment portion is construction.

    In the short term, investment doesn't change very much. The question is (a) how big is the slowdown in investment decisions, and (b) when it will affect the GDP number (investment decisions typically cause action on a 12 to 18 month lag).

    The part of the forecasts for a slowdown that was wrong was that it was assumed that Brexit would (or could) cause a slowdown in consumer spending, presumably on the basis that people would be so panicked they wouldn't be purchasing. That's not happened. However, there is a problem we do need to be aware of: the British consumer is still spending more than he earns, as is shown in our massive current account deficit. This does make our economy a bit more vulnerable that it appears.
    One expects that in the short term net exports will be less negative which will be a gain for the economy. A well needed sugar rush, but nothing more.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MaxPB said:

    That's got to be fake. Otherwise we've all be transported on to the set of a carry on movie.
    With the all crazy things going on lately in the world who knows.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    JonathanD said:

    SeanT said:

    The £ is falling further today

    http://www.cityam.com/250859/frosty-reception-sterling-pound-slips-again?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.

    So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?

    We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.

    ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
    It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
    It feels as if the Bank didn't take into account the automatic stabiliser effect currency depreciation has on economic performance. Must do better.
    I think that is right. Although it is a one-off benefit. Ultimately financial discipline is a better way to deal with your problems. That's why the Germans are very negative about currency depreciation. You find it hard competing at €x per $? Go and make yourself more competitive!
    And yet their economic performance has been almost wholly reliant on it since 2011!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    Lillee c Willee b Dilley....
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TOPPING said:

    Lillee c Willee b Dilley....

    I believe Willey was in the gully too.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514
    Iowa has just flipped to the Democrat column on 538 Polls-Only forecast.
    Clinton on 77.4% chance of winning. 1.29 in Betfair money.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
  • welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    Lillee c Willee b Dilley....

    I believe Willey was in the gully too.
    Not as good as 'The bowler's Holding the batsman's Willey'
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2016

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:
    A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.

    Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
    Quite so.

    IMHO Clinton leads nationally by 4/5 points and has pushed Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and new Hampshire off the table. Nevada, Florida and North Carolina moving toward her too but still in play. Trump still just ahead in Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.

    The debate hit Trump hard and his Latino numbers are horrible. He needs a good win on Sunday or it's over bar the voting, that of course is already happening in some swing states, where the evidence so far is ugly for Donald.
    538 has Clinton ahead in Ohio.
    Indeed so. However my preference of the 538 triumvirate is the polls-plus forecast that still has Ohio with the Donald.

    That said it is noteworthy that the Arizona now-cast has moved to Clinton - 51.3%
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    JonathanD said:

    SeanT said:

    The £ is falling further today

    http://www.cityam.com/250859/frosty-reception-sterling-pound-slips-again?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.

    So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?

    We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.

    ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
    It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
    It feels as if the Bank didn't take into account the automatic stabiliser effect currency depreciation has on economic performance. Must do better.
    I think that is right. Although it is a one-off benefit. Ultimately financial discipline is a better way to deal with your problems. That's why the Germans are very negative about currency depreciation. You find it hard competing at €x per $? Go and make yourself more competitive!
    And yet their economic performance has been almost wholly reliant on it since 2011!
    Actually you are right. The Euro isn't under their control.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Speedy said:

    Mike Hook'em arrested by Michelle Catch'em.
    Ha.
    That can't be true.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:
    A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.

    Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
    Quite so.

    IMHO Clinton leads nationally by 4/5 points and has pushed Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and new Hampshire off the table. Nevada, Florida and North Carolina moving toward her too but still in play. Trump still just ahead in Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.

    The debate hit Trump hard and his Latino numbers are horrible. He needs a good win on Sunday or it's over bar the voting, that of course is already happening in some swing states, where the evidence so far is ugly for Donald.
    538 has Clinton ahead in Ohio.
    Indeed so. However my preference of the 538 triumvirate is the polls-plus forecast that still has Ohio with the Donald.

    That said it is noteworthy that the Arizona now-cast has moved to Clinton - 51.3%
    My concern with the 538 polls-plus forecast is that it adds the economy and historical data on top of the projection of the polls. This such an unusual election that I'm not sure there are useful historical precedents so I'm relying more on the polls-only forecast.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    JonathanD said:

    SeanT said:

    The £ is falling further today

    http://www.cityam.com/250859/frosty-reception-sterling-pound-slips-again?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.

    So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?

    We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.

    ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
    It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
    It feels as if the Bank didn't take into account the automatic stabiliser effect currency depreciation has on economic performance. Must do better.
    I think that is right. Although it is a one-off benefit. Ultimately financial discipline is a better way to deal with your problems. That's why the Germans are very negative about currency depreciation. You find it hard competing at €x per $? Go and make yourself more competitive!
    And yet their economic performance has been almost wholly reliant on it since 2011!
    Actually you are right. The Euro isn't under their control.
    Indeed, but until recently they'd been wage dumping all across the rest of Europe, especially against non-EMU nations like the UK which have minimum wage laws.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:

    Tennessee - MTSU

    Clinton 40 .. Trump 50

    http://mtsupoll.org/2016/10/04/f2016pres/

    For comparison - Romney won by 20 points.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Guido has a lengthy and perfectly rational statement from Woolfe. Panic probably over.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Support for Merkel's party down to 30%:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Cobblers or not

    NEW AD: What does electing Donald Trump mean for you? Economic policies that put #AmericaFirst and bring prosperity to everyone #MAGA https://t.co/fcBrir87Q8
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Jon Mellon
    Brexit was only a surprise to remain voters. Leave voters expected to win https://t.co/LjUaBjK2KO @BESResearch https://t.co/kUQeTbZzQ6
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Speedy said:

    Indigo said:

    I think Arron Banks should say what he really thinks (remembering that Hamilton is on the NEC)

    He lashed out at the NEC, which was heavily criticised for refusing to accept Mr Woolfe's candidacy for the leadership during the last contest because the papers were filed a few minutes late.

    'This body is populated by a motley collection of amateurs; leftovers from a bygone age, when Ukip was a ragtag band of volunteers on the fringes of British politics.
    'Watching them try to run the modern political movement that (Nigel) Farage built is like watching a team of circus clowns trying to carry out a pit stop at the Silverstone Grand Prix,' he wrote in the Guardian.

    'If James hadn't put her name forward at the last minute, we would have had nothing but a rabble of no-name, no-talent nobodies to choose from. These people would be out of their depth in a paddling pool, and couldn't be more unfit to run a modern political party.'


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3824837/Ukip-donor-says-party-run-circus-clowns-new-leadership-favourite-Steven-Woolfe-admits-considered-defecting-TORIES.html

    Arron Banks is right on that.

    One is so fascinated to think that Farage has total control and authority over UKIP as a one man band, but didn't control it's NEC.
    Speedy said:

    Indigo said:

    I think Arron Banks should say what he really thinks (remembering that Hamilton is on the NEC)

    He lashed out at the NEC, which was heavily criticised for refusing to accept Mr Woolfe's candidacy for the leadership during the last contest because the papers were filed a few minutes late.

    'This body is populated by a motley collection of amateurs; leftovers from a bygone age, when Ukip was a ragtag band of volunteers on the fringes of British politics.
    'Watching them try to run the modern political movement that (Nigel) Farage built is like watching a team of circus clowns trying to carry out a pit stop at the Silverstone Grand Prix,' he wrote in the Guardian.

    'If James hadn't put her name forward at the last minute, we would have had nothing but a rabble of no-name, no-talent nobodies to choose from. These people would be out of their depth in a paddling pool, and couldn't be more unfit to run a modern political party.'


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3824837/Ukip-donor-says-party-run-circus-clowns-new-leadership-favourite-Steven-Woolfe-admits-considered-defecting-TORIES.html

    Arron Banks is right on that.

    One is so fascinated to think that Farage has total control and authority over UKIP as a one man band, but didn't control it's NEC.
    I prefer the simile "like watching chimps perform brain surgery".
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Guido has a lengthy and perfectly rational statement from Woolfe. Panic probably over.

    Great news
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Barnesian said:

    My concern with the 538 polls-plus forecast is that it adds the economy and historical data on top of the projection of the polls. This such an unusual election that I'm not sure there are useful historical precedents so I'm relying more on the polls-only forecast.

    It's certainly true that Trump adds spice to the mix but the mountain of polling and other data has provided 538 with a formidable and accurate resource for POTUS. Perhaps a Polls-Plus-Trump would fit the bill.

    Additionally the 538 Polls Plus is very much a tribute act to my ARSE and there can be no finer compliment, even though it is well covered in Mrs JackW's bloomers this election .. :smile:



  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    Michigan: Clinton leads by 11.
  • Indigo said:

    Speedy said:

    Indigo said:

    SeanT said:

    This reminds me of the OJ murder, when the Juice got Loose, on live TV

    Incidentally, if Woolfe makes a full, speedy recovery (which is looking more likely, thank God) might he get a sympathy vote, and win?

    He could then threaten Labour in the North.

    All of British politics might just have turned on a small weird punch-up in Strasbourg.

    I doubt Woolfe is a threat to Labour. He's clearly a Tory in all but name. A northern accent doesn't change that. The Hookem wing of UKIP looks a much bigger threat.

    But he is mixed race and grow up on moss side, which immediately neuters two of the main attack lines against UKIP. As far as I can tell he has never been active in Tory politics.
    The problem for Woolfe is the defection story, that he had agreed to defect to the Tories but James's resignation stopped him from going to Birmingham to officially defect.
    Agreed. Paul Nuttall is the better choice if they are going after the Northern WWC vote anyway.

    The one who wanted to scrap the NHS?

    http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/paul-nuttall-nhs-disappearing-comments.html

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,895
    PlatoSaid said:

    Jon Mellon
    Brexit was only a surprise to remain voters. Leave voters expected to win https://t.co/LjUaBjK2KO @BESResearch https://t.co/kUQeTbZzQ6

    Except Farage and Boris.
  • Trump on Yucca Mountain ( during his visit to Nevada ) http://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/783919560189673472
  • NEW THREAD

  • PlatoSaid said:

    Jon Mellon
    Brexit was only a surprise to remain voters. Leave voters expected to win https://t.co/LjUaBjK2KO @BESResearch https://t.co/kUQeTbZzQ6

    Except Farage and Boris.
    And much of snottery, defeatist PB I seem to recall..
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    JackW said:

    Barnesian said:

    My concern with the 538 polls-plus forecast is that it adds the economy and historical data on top of the projection of the polls. This such an unusual election that I'm not sure there are useful historical precedents so I'm relying more on the polls-only forecast.

    It's certainly true that Trump adds spice to the mix but the mountain of polling and other data has provided 538 with a formidable and accurate resource for POTUS. Perhaps a Polls-Plus-Trump would fit the bill.

    Additionally the 538 Polls Plus is very much a tribute act to my ARSE and there can be no finer compliment, even though it is well covered in Mrs JackW's bloomers this election .. :smile:



    I honestly have no idea re almost religious belief re the Spoken Word According To 538.

    Seems daft and confirmation bias to me.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited October 2016
    Indigo said:

    619 said:

    On topic, If you can't trust a meeting between a group of far right racists to be peaceful I don't know what the world is coming to.

    You are very fond of calling people racist, seems to be one of your favourite words.

    As for far-right, could you please explain how a party of the far-right is hoovering up LABOUR votes ?
    So, just because the voters aren't racist doesn't mean the party isn't. Many populist far-right parties are taking votes from people who normally vote centre-left across Europe. (btw I don't actually think ukip are racist).
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514
    PlatoSaid said:

    JackW said:

    Barnesian said:

    My concern with the 538 polls-plus forecast is that it adds the economy and historical data on top of the projection of the polls. This such an unusual election that I'm not sure there are useful historical precedents so I'm relying more on the polls-only forecast.

    It's certainly true that Trump adds spice to the mix but the mountain of polling and other data has provided 538 with a formidable and accurate resource for POTUS. Perhaps a Polls-Plus-Trump would fit the bill.

    Additionally the 538 Polls Plus is very much a tribute act to my ARSE and there can be no finer compliment, even though it is well covered in Mrs JackW's bloomers this election .. :smile:



    I honestly have no idea re almost religious belief re the Spoken Word According To 538.

    Seems daft and confirmation bias to me.
    It's the opposite of confirmation bias. Everyone has to fight confirmation bias. Some succeed more than others.

    538 goes to extreme lengths to avoid it by using an explicit evidence based model that identifies and adjusts for the biases and quality of the various polls. We quote it because it does the hard work for us and helps prevent us falling into the confirmation bias trap.
This discussion has been closed.