I think Arron Banks should say what he really thinks (remembering that Hamilton is on the NEC)
He lashed out at the NEC, which was heavily criticised for refusing to accept Mr Woolfe's candidacy for the leadership during the last contest because the papers were filed a few minutes late.
'This body is populated by a motley collection of amateurs; leftovers from a bygone age, when Ukip was a ragtag band of volunteers on the fringes of British politics. 'Watching them try to run the modern political movement that (Nigel) Farage built is like watching a team of circus clowns trying to carry out a pit stop at the Silverstone Grand Prix,' he wrote in the Guardian.
'If James hadn't put her name forward at the last minute, we would have had nothing but a rabble of no-name, no-talent nobodies to choose from. These people would be out of their depth in a paddling pool, and couldn't be more unfit to run a modern political party.'
This reminds me of the OJ murder, when the Juice got Loose, on live TV
Incidentally, if Woolfe makes a full, speedy recovery (which is looking more likely, thank God) might he get a sympathy vote, and win?
He could then threaten Labour in the North.
All of British politics might just have turned on a small weird punch-up in Strasbourg.
I doubt Woolfe is a threat to Labour. He's clearly a Tory in all but name. A northern accent doesn't change that. The Hookem wing of UKIP looks a much bigger threat.
But he is mixed race and grow up on moss side, which immediately neuters two of the main attack lines against UKIP. As far as I can tell he has never been active in Tory politics.
The problem for Woolfe is the defection story, that he had agreed to defect to the Tories but James's resignation stopped him from going to Birmingham to officially defect.
Agreed. Paul Nuttall is the better choice if they are going after the Northern WWC vote anyway.
I hope David Aaronovich does not have cause to regret this even more: The Woolfe coverage just shows the MSM's anti-Ukip bias. This kind of thing happens all the time in the Liberal Democrats.
When someone picked him up on it he replied 'Keep it for Russia Today'.....
Edit....and he clearly has a short memory.....did Rinka die in vain?
David was total twat here. He's as readable as Parris now - tiresome axe grinding week after week.
A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.
Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
The Republican Senators are not called Trump, that's why they are winning.
If Trump had a brain he would resign and let someone not called Donald Trump run things for him.
I'm not surprised about the Arizona numbers, Trump is back there campaigning for the first time in 2 months, and he went to Nevada for the first time ever.
This reminds me of the OJ murder, when the Juice got Loose, on live TV
Incidentally, if Woolfe makes a full, speedy recovery (which is looking more likely, thank God) might he get a sympathy vote, and win?
He could then threaten Labour in the North.
All of British politics might just have turned on a small weird punch-up in Strasbourg.
I doubt Woolfe is a threat to Labour. He's clearly a Tory in all but name. A northern accent doesn't change that. The Hookem wing of UKIP looks a much bigger threat.
But he is mixed race and grow up on moss side, which immediately neuters two of the main attack lines against UKIP. As far as I can tell he has never been active in Tory politics.
Woolfe was a Conservative Councillor for Colwyn Bay on Conwy Council before defecting to UKIP.
I am not too surprised he was considering returning to the Tories.
A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.
Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
Quite so.
IMHO Clinton leads nationally by 4/5 points and has pushed Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and new Hampshire off the table. Nevada, Florida and North Carolina moving toward her too but still in play. Trump still just ahead in Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.
The debate hit Trump hard and his Latino numbers are horrible. He needs a good win on Sunday or it's over bar the voting, that of course is already happening in some swing states, where the evidence so far is ugly for Donald.
Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.
So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?
We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.
ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
It feels as if the Bank didn't take into account the automatic stabiliser effect currency depreciation has on economic performance. Must do better.
It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
It's too early to say that their other predictions were 'seriously awry'. Their short-term forecast was for the two-year period following the decision (and arguably that period hasn't really started yet, because I don't think they factored in the delay to triggering Article 50).
A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.
Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
Quite so.
IMHO Clinton leads nationally by 4/5 points and has pushed Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and new Hampshire off the table. Nevada, Florida and North Carolina moving toward her too but still in play. Trump still just ahead in Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.
The debate hit Trump hard and his Latino numbers are horrible. He needs a good win on Sunday or it's over bar the voting, that of course is already happening in some swing states, where the evidence so far is ugly for Donald.
This reminds me of the OJ murder, when the Juice got Loose, on live TV
Incidentally, if Woolfe makes a full, speedy recovery (which is looking more likely, thank God) might he get a sympathy vote, and win?
He could then threaten Labour in the North.
All of British politics might just have turned on a small weird punch-up in Strasbourg.
I doubt Woolfe is a threat to Labour. He's clearly a Tory in all but name. A northern accent doesn't change that. The Hookem wing of UKIP looks a much bigger threat.
But he is mixed race and grow up on moss side, which immediately neuters two of the main attack lines against UKIP. As far as I can tell he has never been active in Tory politics.
Woolfe was a Conservative Councillor for Colwyn Bay on Conwy Council before defecting to UKIP.
I am not too surprised he was considering returning to the Tories.
Someone needs to update his Wikipedia entry, its not mentioned on there.
A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.
Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
Quite so.
IMHO Clinton leads nationally by 4/5 points and has pushed Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and new Hampshire off the table. Nevada, Florida and North Carolina moving toward her too but still in play. Trump still just ahead in Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.
The debate hit Trump hard and his Latino numbers are horrible. He needs a good win on Sunday or it's over bar the voting, that of course is already happening in some swing states, where the evidence so far is ugly for Donald.
Emerson is a landline only phone polling company as well, so I think some caution with there polls are warranted.
Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.
So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?
We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.
ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
GDP is calculated, at its simplest, as:
Consumption + Investment* + Net Exports
* Investment is sometimes called Gross Capital Formation.
The major mechanism, in the short to medium term, by which Brexit could cause an economic impact is through firms delaying investment decisions, and therefore the 18% of the economy that is investment falling markedly. It is also worth noting that a significant chunk of the investment portion is construction.
In the short term, investment doesn't change very much. The question is (a) how big is the slowdown in investment decisions, and (b) when it will affect the GDP number (investment decisions typically cause action on a 12 to 18 month lag).
The part of the forecasts for a slowdown that was wrong was that it was assumed that Brexit would (or could) cause a slowdown in consumer spending, presumably on the basis that people would be so panicked they wouldn't be purchasing. That's not happened. However, there is a problem we do need to be aware of: the British consumer is still spending more than he earns, as is shown in our massive current account deficit. This does make our economy a bit more vulnerable that it appears.
Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.
So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?
We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.
ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
It feels as if the Bank didn't take into account the automatic stabiliser effect currency depreciation has on economic performance. Must do better.
I think that is right. Although it is a one-off benefit. Ultimately financial discipline is a better way to deal with your problems. That's why the Germans are very negative about currency depreciation. You find it hard competing at €x per $? Go and make yourself more competitive!
Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.
So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?
We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.
ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
GDP is calculated, at its simplest, as:
Consumption + Investment* + Net Exports
* Investment is sometimes called Gross Capital Formation.
The major mechanism, in the short to medium term, by which Brexit could cause an economic impact is through firms delaying investment decisions, and therefore the 18% of the economy that is investment falling markedly. It is also worth noting that a significant chunk of the investment portion is construction.
In the short term, investment doesn't change very much. The question is (a) how big is the slowdown in investment decisions, and (b) when it will affect the GDP number (investment decisions typically cause action on a 12 to 18 month lag).
The part of the forecasts for a slowdown that was wrong was that it was assumed that Brexit would (or could) cause a slowdown in consumer spending, presumably on the basis that people would be so panicked they wouldn't be purchasing. That's not happened. However, there is a problem we do need to be aware of: the British consumer is still spending more than he earns, as is shown in our massive current account deficit. This does make our economy a bit more vulnerable that it appears.
One expects that in the short term net exports will be less negative which will be a gain for the economy. A well needed sugar rush, but nothing more.
Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.
So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?
We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.
ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
It feels as if the Bank didn't take into account the automatic stabiliser effect currency depreciation has on economic performance. Must do better.
I think that is right. Although it is a one-off benefit. Ultimately financial discipline is a better way to deal with your problems. That's why the Germans are very negative about currency depreciation. You find it hard competing at €x per $? Go and make yourself more competitive!
And yet their economic performance has been almost wholly reliant on it since 2011!
A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.
Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
Quite so.
IMHO Clinton leads nationally by 4/5 points and has pushed Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and new Hampshire off the table. Nevada, Florida and North Carolina moving toward her too but still in play. Trump still just ahead in Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.
The debate hit Trump hard and his Latino numbers are horrible. He needs a good win on Sunday or it's over bar the voting, that of course is already happening in some swing states, where the evidence so far is ugly for Donald.
538 has Clinton ahead in Ohio.
Indeed so. However my preference of the 538 triumvirate is the polls-plus forecast that still has Ohio with the Donald.
That said it is noteworthy that the Arizona now-cast has moved to Clinton - 51.3%
Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.
So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?
We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.
ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
It feels as if the Bank didn't take into account the automatic stabiliser effect currency depreciation has on economic performance. Must do better.
I think that is right. Although it is a one-off benefit. Ultimately financial discipline is a better way to deal with your problems. That's why the Germans are very negative about currency depreciation. You find it hard competing at €x per $? Go and make yourself more competitive!
And yet their economic performance has been almost wholly reliant on it since 2011!
Actually you are right. The Euro isn't under their control.
A very odd bunch of polls from Emerson. Trump 1% ahead in Florida, tied in Nevada, but 2% behind in Arizona seems very unlikely.
Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
Quite so.
IMHO Clinton leads nationally by 4/5 points and has pushed Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and new Hampshire off the table. Nevada, Florida and North Carolina moving toward her too but still in play. Trump still just ahead in Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.
The debate hit Trump hard and his Latino numbers are horrible. He needs a good win on Sunday or it's over bar the voting, that of course is already happening in some swing states, where the evidence so far is ugly for Donald.
538 has Clinton ahead in Ohio.
Indeed so. However my preference of the 538 triumvirate is the polls-plus forecast that still has Ohio with the Donald.
That said it is noteworthy that the Arizona now-cast has moved to Clinton - 51.3%
My concern with the 538 polls-plus forecast is that it adds the economy and historical data on top of the projection of the polls. This such an unusual election that I'm not sure there are useful historical precedents so I'm relying more on the polls-only forecast.
Relatedly, I just got paid a wodge of dollars, from NYC, converted into sterling. Essentially I made a heathy four figure sum just from the slide in the pound. Brexit has given me an annual 10-15% pay rise.
So it's not all bad. But one has to wonder if there is a level of depreciation at which HMG will start to feel a little queasy. Parity with the euro? Parity with the dollar?
We're tootling along quite nicely to the level the Treasury's Brexit Severe Shock Scenario predicted.
ISTR Goldman's predicting a £1 : $1.15
It's odd that they got their sterling prediction bang on (though I think it will actually fall further), and yet their other predictions were seriously awry.
It feels as if the Bank didn't take into account the automatic stabiliser effect currency depreciation has on economic performance. Must do better.
I think that is right. Although it is a one-off benefit. Ultimately financial discipline is a better way to deal with your problems. That's why the Germans are very negative about currency depreciation. You find it hard competing at €x per $? Go and make yourself more competitive!
And yet their economic performance has been almost wholly reliant on it since 2011!
Actually you are right. The Euro isn't under their control.
Indeed, but until recently they'd been wage dumping all across the rest of Europe, especially against non-EMU nations like the UK which have minimum wage laws.
NEW AD: What does electing Donald Trump mean for you? Economic policies that put #AmericaFirst and bring prosperity to everyone #MAGA https://t.co/fcBrir87Q8
I think Arron Banks should say what he really thinks (remembering that Hamilton is on the NEC)
He lashed out at the NEC, which was heavily criticised for refusing to accept Mr Woolfe's candidacy for the leadership during the last contest because the papers were filed a few minutes late.
'This body is populated by a motley collection of amateurs; leftovers from a bygone age, when Ukip was a ragtag band of volunteers on the fringes of British politics. 'Watching them try to run the modern political movement that (Nigel) Farage built is like watching a team of circus clowns trying to carry out a pit stop at the Silverstone Grand Prix,' he wrote in the Guardian.
'If James hadn't put her name forward at the last minute, we would have had nothing but a rabble of no-name, no-talent nobodies to choose from. These people would be out of their depth in a paddling pool, and couldn't be more unfit to run a modern political party.'
I think Arron Banks should say what he really thinks (remembering that Hamilton is on the NEC)
He lashed out at the NEC, which was heavily criticised for refusing to accept Mr Woolfe's candidacy for the leadership during the last contest because the papers were filed a few minutes late.
'This body is populated by a motley collection of amateurs; leftovers from a bygone age, when Ukip was a ragtag band of volunteers on the fringes of British politics. 'Watching them try to run the modern political movement that (Nigel) Farage built is like watching a team of circus clowns trying to carry out a pit stop at the Silverstone Grand Prix,' he wrote in the Guardian.
'If James hadn't put her name forward at the last minute, we would have had nothing but a rabble of no-name, no-talent nobodies to choose from. These people would be out of their depth in a paddling pool, and couldn't be more unfit to run a modern political party.'
My concern with the 538 polls-plus forecast is that it adds the economy and historical data on top of the projection of the polls. This such an unusual election that I'm not sure there are useful historical precedents so I'm relying more on the polls-only forecast.
It's certainly true that Trump adds spice to the mix but the mountain of polling and other data has provided 538 with a formidable and accurate resource for POTUS. Perhaps a Polls-Plus-Trump would fit the bill.
Additionally the 538 Polls Plus is very much a tribute act to my ARSE and there can be no finer compliment, even though it is well covered in Mrs JackW's bloomers this election ..
This reminds me of the OJ murder, when the Juice got Loose, on live TV
Incidentally, if Woolfe makes a full, speedy recovery (which is looking more likely, thank God) might he get a sympathy vote, and win?
He could then threaten Labour in the North.
All of British politics might just have turned on a small weird punch-up in Strasbourg.
I doubt Woolfe is a threat to Labour. He's clearly a Tory in all but name. A northern accent doesn't change that. The Hookem wing of UKIP looks a much bigger threat.
But he is mixed race and grow up on moss side, which immediately neuters two of the main attack lines against UKIP. As far as I can tell he has never been active in Tory politics.
The problem for Woolfe is the defection story, that he had agreed to defect to the Tories but James's resignation stopped him from going to Birmingham to officially defect.
Agreed. Paul Nuttall is the better choice if they are going after the Northern WWC vote anyway.
My concern with the 538 polls-plus forecast is that it adds the economy and historical data on top of the projection of the polls. This such an unusual election that I'm not sure there are useful historical precedents so I'm relying more on the polls-only forecast.
It's certainly true that Trump adds spice to the mix but the mountain of polling and other data has provided 538 with a formidable and accurate resource for POTUS. Perhaps a Polls-Plus-Trump would fit the bill.
Additionally the 538 Polls Plus is very much a tribute act to my ARSE and there can be no finer compliment, even though it is well covered in Mrs JackW's bloomers this election ..
I honestly have no idea re almost religious belief re the Spoken Word According To 538.
On topic, If you can't trust a meeting between a group of far right racists to be peaceful I don't know what the world is coming to.
You are very fond of calling people racist, seems to be one of your favourite words.
As for far-right, could you please explain how a party of the far-right is hoovering up LABOUR votes ?
So, just because the voters aren't racist doesn't mean the party isn't. Many populist far-right parties are taking votes from people who normally vote centre-left across Europe. (btw I don't actually think ukip are racist).
My concern with the 538 polls-plus forecast is that it adds the economy and historical data on top of the projection of the polls. This such an unusual election that I'm not sure there are useful historical precedents so I'm relying more on the polls-only forecast.
It's certainly true that Trump adds spice to the mix but the mountain of polling and other data has provided 538 with a formidable and accurate resource for POTUS. Perhaps a Polls-Plus-Trump would fit the bill.
Additionally the 538 Polls Plus is very much a tribute act to my ARSE and there can be no finer compliment, even though it is well covered in Mrs JackW's bloomers this election ..
I honestly have no idea re almost religious belief re the Spoken Word According To 538.
Seems daft and confirmation bias to me.
It's the opposite of confirmation bias. Everyone has to fight confirmation bias. Some succeed more than others.
538 goes to extreme lengths to avoid it by using an explicit evidence based model that identifies and adjusts for the biases and quality of the various polls. We quote it because it does the hard work for us and helps prevent us falling into the confirmation bias trap.
Comments
One is so fascinated to think that Farage has total control and authority over UKIP as a one man band, but didn't control it's NEC.
Also, see how badly Trump does by comparison with Republican Senators.
Oh dear ...
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/299566-trump-claims-he-insulted-women-for-the-purpose-of
As for far-right, could you please explain how a party of the far-right is hoovering up LABOUR votes ?
I now skip straight to the comments.
Well quite.
If Trump had a brain he would resign and let someone not called Donald Trump run things for him.
I'm not surprised about the Arizona numbers, Trump is back there campaigning for the first time in 2 months, and he went to Nevada for the first time ever.
I still can't get over your professed nil personal knowledge of USA. Yet pontificate about it. Seriously?
I am not too surprised he was considering returning to the Tories.
IMHO Clinton leads nationally by 4/5 points and has pushed Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and new Hampshire off the table. Nevada, Florida and North Carolina moving toward her too but still in play. Trump still just ahead in Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.
The debate hit Trump hard and his Latino numbers are horrible. He needs a good win on Sunday or it's over bar the voting, that of course is already happening in some swing states, where the evidence so far is ugly for Donald.
Steven Woolfe: 'I am being kept in overnight awaiting secondary tests to make sure everything is fine'
www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=57&v=iSqCG9CkJzk
That article deserves the derision that it deserves, and Mr.Giro seems to have a low opinion of Eastern Europe ironically.
Consumption + Investment* + Net Exports
* Investment is sometimes called Gross Capital Formation.
The major mechanism, in the short to medium term, by which Brexit could cause an economic impact is through firms delaying investment decisions, and therefore the 18% of the economy that is investment falling markedly. It is also worth noting that a significant chunk of the investment portion is construction.
In the short term, investment doesn't change very much. The question is (a) how big is the slowdown in investment decisions, and (b) when it will affect the GDP number (investment decisions typically cause action on a 12 to 18 month lag).
The part of the forecasts for a slowdown that was wrong was that it was assumed that Brexit would (or could) cause a slowdown in consumer spending, presumably on the basis that people would be so panicked they wouldn't be purchasing. That's not happened. However, there is a problem we do need to be aware of: the British consumer is still spending more than he earns, as is shown in our massive current account deficit. This does make our economy a bit more vulnerable that it appears.
ALL TOO PLAY FOR
Ha.
Is marijuana causing global warming? Energy consumption by cannabis farms may soon rival that of data centres
Clinton on 77.4% chance of winning. 1.29 in Betfair money.
That said it is noteworthy that the Arizona now-cast has moved to Clinton - 51.3%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
NEW AD: What does electing Donald Trump mean for you? Economic policies that put #AmericaFirst and bring prosperity to everyone #MAGA https://t.co/fcBrir87Q8
Brexit was only a surprise to remain voters. Leave voters expected to win https://t.co/LjUaBjK2KO @BESResearch https://t.co/kUQeTbZzQ6
Additionally the 538 Polls Plus is very much a tribute act to my ARSE and there can be no finer compliment, even though it is well covered in Mrs JackW's bloomers this election ..
http://order-order.com/2016/10/06/international-support-theresa-may/
http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/paul-nuttall-nhs-disappearing-comments.html
NEW THREAD
Seems daft and confirmation bias to me.
538 goes to extreme lengths to avoid it by using an explicit evidence based model that identifies and adjusts for the biases and quality of the various polls. We quote it because it does the hard work for us and helps prevent us falling into the confirmation bias trap.