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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Seamus Milne really is going then that could help effort

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  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Ishmael_X said:

    Off topic: I hate off-topic online portfolio talk, but there is no way the markets are going to have a huge, hopefully temporary, wobble at some stage between now and 9/11/16 (English style). The value bet is to free up a bit of cash now and await some bargains.
    I think a double negative is required.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    IIRC, Norwegian TV did something similar with a ferry journey that took something like 24 hours to make its way along the coast.
    If it's the one I think it is - the Reader's Digest did an article on it - sometime in 1980. It provides a vital service to fjiordline communities - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurtigruten

    Quote: As part of its slow television series, the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation transmitted non-stop the Hurtigruten ship MS Nordnorge's 134-hour voyage from Bergen to Kirkenes, which set sail on June 16, 2011.[3]
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    TGOHF said:

    Is that a euphanism ?
    Ha! Afraid not. It was 20yrs ago - but I recall having a pointless fight with my other half, and seeing another couple doing the same.

    It was hilarious in retrospect. I see all domestics through this prism. And they get funnier and funnier.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    geoffw said:

    I think a double negative is required.
    p.s. why the wobble?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    geoffw said:

    I think a double negative is required.
    Bugger, out of editing time. no way the markets are not going to have...
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    PlatoSaid said:

    Several RNC bigwigs have declared for Hillary - and their voters are going for Trump. It's upsidedown stuff Establishment vs People.
    You do realise that LA time poll doesn't take into account the debate and Gravis is the Breitbart campaign one?

    Lets wait for the proper ones at the weekend.
  • Mr. Dromedary, I've heard both used.

    Mr. X, I believe there's an annual charity thingummyjig which involves playing Desert Bus for a full day, or perhaps longer.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    PlatoSaid said:

    Ha! Afraid not. It was 20yrs ago - but I recall having a pointless fight with my other half, and seeing another couple doing the same.

    It was hilarious in retrospect. I see all domestics through this prism. And they get funnier and funnier.
    These days one partner shops, and they have the fight by mobile phone. Still quite fun. I must say I thought you meant fights with total strangers over the last marked-down rump steak.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I do own a car but as a parent of both a toddler and a baby I find <£1 per week to avoid pushing a pram and dragging a toddler around a supermarket to be well worth it. Once per week I answer the door and my groceries arrive, I have better things to do than go to the supermarket.

    On my time off I'd rather take my toddler to the park and push her on a swing than take her to the supermarket and push a trolley.</p>
    CLAPS

    And that's the usefulness of it.
  • Anorak said:
    Darwin award?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    IanB2 said:

    I guess you could argue that much of Trump's behaviour and flakiness is already priced in. Given his track record it would require a gaffe of stupendous proportions to significantly change the narrative.
    I'm not sure about that. I would guess that many of the 100 million who watched the debate saw Trump in action for the first time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Barnesian said:

    I'm not sure about that. I would guess that many of the 100 million who watched the debate saw Trump in action for the first time.
    Really? I would have thought he has had so much media exposure that even a Japanese soldier in the jungle still watching out for the GIs would know who he was?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rkrkrk said:

    I absolutely agree with the purpose of the strategy.
    It's much better than pretending to out-kip UKIP, or just lying to people like the Tories.

    This interesting study suggests that an increase in external immigration is associated with a reduction in NHS waiting times. http://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/working-paper-series/working-paper-005

    Instead it is internal migration which indicates pressure on NHS waiting times. This makes sense for the health sector since immigrants are more likely to be younger, healthier etc.

    So for at least some of this migrant impact fund- it may need to be spent where there aren't many immigrants at all. I hope the policy is flexible enough to allow for that.
    It makes sense to me. Some of the areas with the worst waiting list issues are areas with little or no immigration, but rather are areas where people retire too.

    Immigrants are generally younger and fitter, so do pose problems for maternity services, but not osteoporosis or dementia care, or other chronic onditions of old age.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    vik said:

    LA Times tracking poll has been updated, with post-debate data for 1 day & Trump has GAINED 0.5%.

    He was 3.5% ahead yesterday & he's 4.0% ahead today.

    I make that a 3.5% gain total from the debates (0.5% x 7).

    This is quite close to the Gravis Flash poll, which found him gaining 2% from the Debates.

    Time to stock up on popcorn & watch the Liberal media meltdown. :)

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    I noted that earlier - a 0.5% change is well within MOE (and you have to note you are comparing results with those a week ago. )

    The USA is rapidly polarising into the have's against the havenot's. If you've gained by being a 5-a-day co-ordinator, outreach speacialist or safe-spaces/ human resources consultant then you'll vote Democrat. If you've seen your job offshored to Mexico or not seen your standard of living improve for 8 years then you'll vote Republican.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ishmael_X said:

    These days one partner shops, and they have the fight by mobile phone. Still quite fun. I must say I thought you meant fights with total strangers over the last marked-down rump steak.
    :lol:

    Only over fillets or venison.
  • Mr. Betting, only an Honourable Mention, assuming he has one surviving testicle.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    weejonnie said:

    I noted that earlier - a 0.5% change is well within MOE (and you have to note you are comparing results with those a week ago. )

    The USA is rapidly polarising into the have's against the havenot's. If you've gained by being a 5-a-day co-ordinator, outreach speacialist or safe-spaces/ human resources consultant then you'll vote Democrat. If you've seen your job offshored to Mexico or not seen your standard of living improve for 8 years then you'll vote Republican.
    Indeed. Taking what could be a random fluctuation and multiplying it by seven is voodoo polling gone mad!
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    geoffw said:

    p.s. why the wobble?
    I would have thought fear that Trump will get in, or Trump actually getting in, given his position on Russia, world trade and foreigners. and everything else, would self-evidently inspire a rush to gold and tinned foods. And October is always prime time for market wobbles.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Animal_pb said:

    In other Australian news -

    'Unluckiest man in Australia' bitten on the penis by a spider for the second time

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/28/unluckiest-man-in-australia-bitten-on-the-penis-by-a-spider-for/

    I think we may have a new metaphor for Corbyn's re-election as Labour leader....
    So his penis is "a bit more swollen" - and what, he's complaining?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I do own a car but as a parent of both a toddler and a baby I find <£1 per week to avoid pushing a pram and dragging a toddler around a supermarket to be well worth it. Once per week I answer the door and my groceries arrive, I have better things to do than go to the supermarket.

    On my time off I'd rather take my toddler to the park and push her on a swing than take her to the supermarket and push a trolley.</p>
    I think it important that toddlers are taken to the supermarket ratber than the park. They need to learn to do chores, and to tolerate boredom. If they only ever do fun things then they are only capable of doing fun things. Children need to appreciate all aspects of growing up.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    It makes sense to me. Some of the areas with the worst waiting list issues are areas with little or no immigration, but rather are areas where people retire too.

    Immigrants are generally younger and fitter, so do pose problems for maternity services, but not osteoporosis or dementia care, or other chronic onditions of old age.
    Yet
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Oh my

    Martha Gill
    Video: it all kicks off at antisemitism meeting as Jackie Walker criticises Holocaust Memorial Day https://t.co/sJKVGhWeAU
  • I think it important that toddlers are taken to the supermarket ratber than the park. They need to learn to do chores, and to tolerate boredom. If they only ever do fun things then they are only capable of doing fun things. Children need to appreciate all aspects of growing up.
    There are other chores to learn to do - cleaning up after yourself, doing laundry etc - why does going to the supermarket need to be a chore any more than helping on the family farm used to be? It is obsolete.
  • Apparently, an Owen Smith staffer broke a toe in Andy Burnham's foot during the press v party football match. Who knew that there is at least one bone in Burnham's body?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    There are other chores to learn to do - cleaning up after yourself, doing laundry etc - why does going to the supermarket need to be a chore any more than helping on the family farm used to be? It is obsolete.
    It is social interaction, and a lesson in how to behave with strangers. Domestic chores do not have that effect.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    619 said:

    You do realise that LA time poll doesn't take into account the debate and Gravis is the Breitbart campaign one?

    Lets wait for the proper ones at the weekend.
    You are wasting your breath with some of the true believers on here.

    It is quiet bizarre how much support Trump commands on PB – many of the posters on here are so right wing they are falling off their flat earth.
  • Apparently, an Owen Smith staffer broke a toe in Andy Burnham's foot during the press v party football match. Who knew that there is at least one bone in Burnham's body?

    :smile::smile:
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Oh my

    Martha Gill
    Video: it all kicks off at antisemitism meeting as Jackie Walker criticises Holocaust Memorial Day https://t.co/sJKVGhWeAU

    Pass the popcorn. Although so far Labour conf has been tame compared to the predictions of actual stand-up fights.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ishmael_X said:

    I would have thought fear that Trump will get in, or Trump actually getting in, given his position on Russia, world trade and foreigners. and everything else, would self-evidently inspire a rush to gold and tinned foods. And October is always prime time for market wobbles.
    I think that quite likely too. The hard thing as always is spotting the bottom. I have moved to a more defensive position to await events.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Bugger, out of editing time. no way the markets are not going to have...
    If enough people believe you and sell their shares your prophecy will be self fulfilling.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Anyone know what time Corbyn delivers his speech to Conference?

    Was reminded that two years ago, I was driving back from Barra and had the misfortune to listen to Ed's final conference speech before the election. (The one where he "forgot" to mention certain issues that might have been of interest to the voters...) It was clear as day that Labour were utterly stuffed. I expect to hear an even stronger confirmation today.

    Sobering to think that even if May does stay the course until 2020, Labour will have already had 2 of its 5 conferences.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    vik said:

    LA Times tracking poll has been updated, with post-debate data for 1 day & Trump has GAINED 0.5%.

    He was 3.5% ahead yesterday & he's 4.0% ahead today.

    I make that a 3.5% gain total from the debates (0.5% x 7).

    This is quite close to the Gravis Flash poll, which found him gaining 2% from the Debates.

    Time to stock up on popcorn & watch the Liberal media meltdown. :)

    http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

    The daily change is between a seven day moving average. That means it is caused by the data point dropping out (from 8 days ago) and the new data point coming in. You are assuming that all the change is because of the new data point.

    The only meaningful comparison is between the 7 day moving average today and that of 7 days ago. Trump has a 4.1% lead in both cases - i.e. no change.

    The interesting statistic to me is the intention to vote. For Trump this has gone from 82.5% to 85.2% over the last 7 days. For Clinton, it has reduced from 83.4% to 82.5% (all within MOE). I'll be watching this statistic over the next 7 days to see whose vote has firmed up most as a result of the debate.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Oh my

    Martha Gill
    Video: it all kicks off at antisemitism meeting as Jackie Walker criticises Holocaust Memorial Day https://t.co/sJKVGhWeAU

    Walker said also she hadn’t “heard a definition of antisemitism that I can work with.”
    Meanwhile Baronmess Shami finds that antisemitism is being dealt with in the Labour party...
  • IanB2 said:

    Really? I would have thought he has had so much media exposure that even a Japanese soldier in the jungle still watching out for the GIs would know who he was?
    It will be the first time that many have seen him *in detail*. Until now, a lot will simply have seen slips on the news or reports in the professional or social media.
  • It is social interaction, and a lesson in how to behave with strangers. Domestic chores do not have that effect.
    Like how you interact with strangers at the park (or once she's older nursery, school etc), have to share things like the slide and not just have it for yourself etc? Or behaving at a restaurant when you go out for a family meal? And so on ...

    Besides we don't talk to strangers at the supermarket anyway, that's weird. We'd only have previously spoken to the cashier at checkout but since the supermarkets moved to self-scan and self-checkouts there isn't even any social interaction there either.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Though not necessarily for the reasons stated by Mr Varoufakis.
  • There are other chores to learn to do - cleaning up after yourself, doing laundry etc - why does going to the supermarket need to be a chore any more than helping on the family farm used to be? It is obsolete.
    Speak for yourself. Mine helped out on my family farm allotment.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016

    I think it important that toddlers are taken to the supermarket ratber than the park. They need to learn to do chores, and to tolerate boredom. If they only ever do fun things then they are only capable of doing fun things. Children need to appreciate all aspects of growing up.
    At 3 my son liked pushing the trolley around and sitting in the trollet at the till handing me the items for the conveyor belt. The locals in the Caribbean island we were living in sometimes viewed me as akin to a white slave master!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    So his penis is "a bit more swollen" - and what, he's complaining?
    I was married to a drain-pipe. I honestly don't recommend it #TooMuchInformation
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    There are other chores to learn to do - cleaning up after yourself, doing laundry etc - why does going to the supermarket need to be a chore any more than helping on the family farm used to be? It is obsolete.
    Quite so. Going to the supermarket is the biggest waste of time known to the human species.

    Just a 'quick shop' takes three times as long as it ought (an hour or more suddenly disappears) thanks to queueing, parking or public transport issues, and – most of all – being entirely unable to find what you want in the aisles because they move it around every few days and none of the staff have the foggiest idea where anything is (even if you can find a wandering assistant).

    The misery is compounded by those dumb machines that never work properly and won't let you buy booze without a supervisor (who is usually rushed off her feet).

    Home delivery is indeed the way forward. Life is too short – for adults or children. There are plenty of better places to interact with the public.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Oh my

    Martha Gill
    Video: it all kicks off at antisemitism meeting as Jackie Walker criticises Holocaust Memorial Day https://t.co/sJKVGhWeAU

    “wouldn’t it be wonderful if Holocaust day was open to all peoples who’ve experienced Holocaust?”
    "it is"
    " ... "

    What a shower.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Like how you interact with strangers at the park (or once she's older nursery, school etc), have to share things like the slide and not just have it for yourself etc? Or behaving at a restaurant when you go out for a family meal? And so on ...

    Besides we don't talk to strangers at the supermarket anyway, that's weird. We'd only have previously spoken to the cashier at checkout but since the supermarkets moved to self-scan and self-checkouts there isn't even any social interaction there either.
    All important aspects of socialisation, but food shopping is too. Indeed getting a child to scan items using the Sugar Smart App* is often quite an eyeopener for them.

    https://www.nhs.uk/sugar-smart/home
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Jobabob said:

    Quite so. Going to the supermarket is the biggest waste of time known to the human species.

    Just a 'quick shop' takes three times as long as it ought (an hour or more suddenly disappears) thanks to queueing, parking or public transport issues, and – most of all – being entirely unable to find what you want in the aisles because they move it around every few days and none of the staff have the foggiest idea where anything is (even if you can find a wandering assistant).

    The misery is compounded by those dumb machines that never work properly and won't let you buy booze without a supervisor (who is usually rushed off her feet).

    Home delivery is indeed the way forward. Life is too short – for adults or children. There are plenty of better places to interact with the public.
    I'm in and out of Waitrose in 15 minutes. Self checkouts have made shopping much less of a chore. Then again, I'm only shopping for two people, not a family. I'm sure if/when I get to that stage I'll be happy Sainsbury's offer 1h delivery!
  • All important aspects of socialisation, but food shopping is too. Indeed getting a child to scan items using the Sugar Smart App* is often quite an eyeopener for them.

    https://www.nhs.uk/sugar-smart/home
    My 2 year old is quite bright for her age I think and loves story books but she can't read yet. Not sure she's going to be scanning items any time soon. Maybe for a 7 year old that would be an eye opener, not a 2 year old or a 3 month old.

    She could scan the items when delivered at home too if we wanted to be doing that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    weejonnie said:

    I noted that earlier - a 0.5% change is well within MOE (and you have to note you are comparing results with those a week ago. )

    The USA is rapidly polarising into the have's against the havenot's. If you've gained by being a 5-a-day co-ordinator, outreach speacialist or safe-spaces/ human resources consultant then you'll vote Democrat. If you've seen your job offshored to Mexico or not seen your standard of living improve for 8 years then you'll vote Republican.
    Strictly speaking, Mexico isn't offshore ...

    US median income:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
  • MaxPB said:

    I'm in and out of Waitrose in 15 minutes. Self checkouts have made shopping much less of a chore. Then again, I'm only shopping for two people, not a family. I'm sure if/when I get to that stage I'll be happy Sainsbury's offer 1h delivery!
    Is that counting your time driving to/from Waitrose or just time in the building?

    Also don't forget that it costs money to drive to/from Waitrose too. Petrol, wear and tear in the car etc isn't free. Set that against the approximately 60p a week I pay to avoid going to the supermarket and it's even better value.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: Andy Burnham announces he is quitting the Shadow Cabinet to concentrate on his Manchester mayoral campaign.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Is that counting your time driving to/from Waitrose or just time in the building?

    Also don't forget that it costs money to drive to/from Waitrose too. Petrol, wear and tear in the car etc isn't free. Set that against the approximately 60p a week I pay to avoid going to the supermarket and it's even better value.
    It's on the way home from work for me, and within walking distance if I want to go on the weekend.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile, Agent Corbyn's mission to destroy Labour as an electoral force scores another win...

    The new constitutional amendment states that “Conference has the right to refer back any part of a document without rejecting the policy document as a whole...”

    The Left has spent years fighting for the change, but it was always rebuffed under Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband.

    The new rule means that any delegates can unpick whole policy documents rather than be forced to vote on them on a ‘take-it-or-leave-it’ basis.

    Centrists fear that the shift will mean future party conferences will be dominated by rows and get bogged down by the ‘trench warfare’ Corbyn says he wants to avoid.

    The main business of conference speeches could be derailed daily by lengthy debates on policy if delegates push their concerns, some insiders claim.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-line-by-line-unpick-policy-nec_uk_57eb9bb5e4b00e5804efbce9?sb40bupp8mukrzfr
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    MaxPB said:

    I'm in and out of Waitrose in 15 minutes. Self checkouts have made shopping much less of a chore. Then again, I'm only shopping for two people, not a family. I'm sure if/when I get to that stage I'll be happy Sainsbury's offer 1h delivery!
    I love going to the supermarket and my wife rations my visits as I'm always slipping a few extras into the trolley. Online shopping doesn't have the same frisson for me.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,378

    I'm off to central Liverpool for a few beers with the other old gits this evening, and hoping to dodge the worst of the Momentum crowd.

    Here's a modernised parable of the Samaritan ...

    The first person to see the injured man is a Social Justice Warrior who sees the man and becomes angry. “This shouldn’t be allowed to happen. I’ll tweet my angst and start a petition.” He then walks by.

    The second person see him is a Corbynista. “This is a tragedy and it’s all the fault of the Romans. Time to reclaim the streets and organise a demonstration.” He then walks by.

    The third person to see him is a Guardian reader. “He must be suffering so much and I share his misery, but as he’s a Samaritan, he’s probably a racist.” He then walks by.

    The fourth person to see him is Nick Palmer. “Poor man, I’ll do something in a few minutes, but first, I must check if he has a pet and if the pet is wandering around in the wilderness, all alone.”

    Having said that, the people who go to Calais to help are at least doing something.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    tlg86 said:

    Though not necessarily for the reasons stated by Mr Varoufakis.
    Some well known saying regarding motes and beams is going round my head...

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Barry Gardiner on immigration with Andrew Neil : drowning just drowning fast. Controls on "quality" but not "numbers" would be offered.

    Words fail me.
  • Nigelb said:

    Strictly speaking, Mexico isn't offshore ...

    US median income:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
    Still below what it was in 1999? That's quite shocking ...
  • Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Andy Burnham announces he is quitting the Shadow Cabinet to concentrate on his Manchester mayoral campaign.

    Blimey, he's the Shadow Home Secretary ffs - promotion time for Diane Abbott?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835
    Jobabob said:

    Quite so. Going to the supermarket is the biggest waste of time known to the human species.

    Just a 'quick shop' takes three times as long as it ought (an hour or more suddenly disappears) thanks to queueing, parking or public transport issues, and – most of all – being entirely unable to find what you want in the aisles because they move it around every few days and none of the staff have the foggiest idea where anything is (even if you can find a wandering assistant).

    The misery is compounded by those dumb machines that never work properly and won't let you buy booze without a supervisor (who is usually rushed off her feet).

    Home delivery is indeed the way forward. Life is too short – for adults or children. There are plenty of better places to interact with the public.
    I don't find supermarket shopping noticeably slower or more unpleasant than shopping online. I quite like Tesco, occasionally meet someone I know, pass pleasantries with the checkout staff, can find most of what I want (more so than online, anyway). All this is made more difficult with a toddler, of course, who imposes a certain time pressure and an obligation to keep moving lest she start clambering out of the little seat, but online shopping with a toddler around is also fraught with difficulties. Without children, it can be a rare and pleasant opportunity to spend some time in my own company. I can treat myself to a snack to eat on the way home.
    I do take your point about the self-checkouts though. My particular bugbear is waiting for an assistant to verify that I am old enough to buy alcohol-free beer.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    I get the feeling that the Conservatives are going to miss Dave next week. His ability to deliver a set piece was among the best in the world. I remain unconvinced by Theresa.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Nigelb said:

    Strictly speaking, Mexico isn't offshore ...

    US median income:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
    OK Offwalled to Mexico! Fair enough.

    Freetrade/ single market doesn't work between countries where there are significant differences between the cost of Labour or Capitol as new business, given a choice, will always locate where these are cheapest. Existing business will tend to stay as the upheaval costs form a barrier to movement but in extremis will re-locate (if only to maintain their market position with respect to the new kids on the block). the net effect is an outflow of wealth from the richer country to the poorer. There are now numerous examples confirming this and the natural response from (the) 'oi polloi is to demand removal from the current intolerable (to them) situation.
  • MaxPB said:

    I get the feeling that the Conservatives are going to miss Dave next week. His ability to deliver a set piece was among the best in the world. I remain unconvinced by Theresa.

    Theresa much better with a hostile audience than Dave. That could come in handy at party conferences to come.
  • welshowl said:

    Barry Gardiner on immigration with Andrew Neil : drowning just drowning fast. Controls on "quality" but not "numbers" would be offered.

    Words fail me.

    That shows they've done their Kipper-dog-whistle homework.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789
    MaxPB said:

    I get the feeling that the Conservatives are going to miss Dave next week. His ability to deliver a set piece was among the best in the world. I remain unconvinced by Theresa.

    meh

    lots of happy clappy soundbites, but really he had bugger all to say.
  • MaxPB said:

    I get the feeling that the Conservatives are going to miss Dave next week. His ability to deliver a set piece was among the best in the world. I remain unconvinced by Theresa.

    She's not a particularly inspiring speaker, but she'll be fine if she plays a straight bat and avoids trying to be too showy. That's just not her style.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MaxPB said:

    It's on the way home from work for me, and within walking distance if I want to go on the weekend.
    I'm all for the recreational leisure side of things - we loved this wandering around experience looking at stuff and buying nonsense we tried to eat/fit in the fridge.

    I'm very happy with shoppers - I've spent more on cushions from John Lewis than Keith Vaz. We make choices where we get pleasure points. I spend oodles on cat food and US TV.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    We make choices where we get pleasure points. I spend oodles on cat food and US TV.

    Which is more palatable?
  • Going to the supermarket gives you the chance to nab the 'reduced for quick sale' items, especially if you go late in the day.

    There's also plenty of MILF.
  • weejonnie said:

    OK Offwalled to Mexico! Fair enough.

    Freetrade/ single market doesn't work between countries where there are significant differences between the cost of Labour or Capitol as new business, given a choice, will always locate where these are cheapest. Existing business will tend to stay as the upheaval costs form a barrier to movement but in extremis will re-locate (if only to maintain their market position with respect to the new kids on the block). the net effect is an outflow of wealth from the richer country to the poorer. There are now numerous examples confirming this and the natural response from (the) 'oi polloi is to demand removal from the current intolerable (to them) situation.
    This is the intuition the voters will have but economically it's cobblers. Facebook is not based in Mexico.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Oh my

    Martha Gill
    Video: it all kicks off at antisemitism meeting as Jackie Walker criticises Holocaust Memorial Day https://t.co/sJKVGhWeAU
    CD13 said:


    I'm off to central Liverpool for a few beers with the other old gits this evening, and hoping to dodge the worst of the Momentum crowd.

    Here's a modernised parable of the Samaritan ...

    The first person to see the injured man is a Social Justice Warrior who sees the man and becomes angry. “This shouldn’t be allowed to happen. I’ll tweet my angst and start a petition.” He then walks by.

    The second person see him is a Corbynista. “This is a tragedy and it’s all the fault of the Romans. Time to reclaim the streets and organise a demonstration.” He then walks by.

    The third person to see him is a Guardian reader. “He must be suffering so much and I share his misery, but as he’s a Samaritan, he’s probably a racist.” He then walks by.

    The fourth person to see him is Nick Palmer. “Poor man, I’ll do something in a few minutes, but first, I must check if he has a pet and if the pet is wandering around in the wilderness, all alone.”

    Having said that, the people who go to Calais to help are at least doing something.

    :lol:
  • There's also plenty of MILF.

    With BOGOF?
  • Is that counting your time driving to/from Waitrose or just time in the building?

    Also don't forget that it costs money to drive to/from Waitrose too. Petrol, wear and tear in the car etc isn't free. Set that against the approximately 60p a week I pay to avoid going to the supermarket and it's even better value.
    Don't forget your free coffee
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    She's not a particularly inspiring speaker, but she'll be fine if she plays a straight bat and avoids trying to be too showy. That's just not her style.
    Choked on my cornflakes. The conference has always talked about what she is wearing. Funny shoes or some bizarre astronaut outfit. That IS showy.
  • Essentially we're trying to split off people who don't especially mind immigrants but are worried about practical impacts from people who simply hate seeing many foreigners, who I don't think we are going to be able to attract as voters under any conceivable leader.

    Per Opinium's study of the British electorate, there are two groups that this seems most likely to alienate:

    The Community group, made up largely of the working class in Northern England and the Midlands, represents 5% of Britain. A majority of them believe that immigration is a burden on society (62%) and a plurality that being British means being born here (43%) and that the government should put the British first (41%)
    The Our Britain group consists of older working class and retirees, living mainly in the Northern England and the Midlands, and makes up 24% of Britain. They overwhelmingly believe that immigration is a burden on society (88%), that being British means being born here (68%) and that government should put the British first (77%).

    Labour is currently winning 50% of the first group and 19% of the second group, and is now apparently writing both of them off. 50% of the electorate (Our Britain + Common Sense) gives their top priority as reducing net migration; the only group which apparently opposes the policy are the Democratic Socialists (8% of the population).

    No compromise with the electorate, comrades.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNewsBreak: Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has won a High Court fight with junior doctors over a staffing contract
  • Blimey, he's the Shadow Home Secretary ffs - promotion time for Diane Abbott?
    I thought he had already quit. Shows how difficult it is to keep up. Probably in response to having no idea what Lab's immigration policy is, as Jezza makes something up on the radio.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    She's not a particularly inspiring speaker, but she'll be fine if she plays a straight bat and avoids trying to be too showy. That's just not her style.
    Yes, but the problem with a straight bat is that members want to know what our position with the EU is going to be. Not giving anything away is going to store up problems for her. The public want to know her position on the single market, immigration and what our fallback position could be. I'm not sure she is going to be able to articulate it as well as Dave and deliver bad news as well as he did. At least half of members are going to be upset at her stance, Dave had an uncanny ability to carry people with him. An ability that deserted him in the referendum campaign, but worked well for gay marriage and prison reforms, neither of which were popular among members.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2016
    Jonathan said:

    Choked on my cornflakes. The conference has always talked about what she is wearing. Funny shoes or some bizarre astronaut outfit. That IS showy.

    She's showy in her choice of shoes, yes. I expect she'll be wearing some spectacular ones!
  • On topic, were Seumas to leave, it would leave me more upset than when Robbie left Take That the first time.

    I was inconsolable for days.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Blue_rog said:

    I love going to the supermarket and my wife rations my visits as I'm always slipping a few extras into the trolley. Online shopping doesn't have the same frisson for me.
    We really need to know what these are.

    My hubbie added biscuits, marzipan and crisps when I wasn't watching :smiley: He was a total food envy bod - he'd look at my restaurant choice and make me feel guilty for eating any of it. Like dining with a dog.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    This is the intuition the voters will have but economically it's cobblers. Facebook is not based in Mexico.
    Facebook isn't exactly a mass employer of working class people either.
  • Per Opinium's study of the British electorate, there are two groups that this seems most likely to alienate:

    The Community group, made up largely of the working class in Northern England and the Midlands, represents 5% of Britain. A majority of them believe that immigration is a burden on society (62%) and a plurality that being British means being born here (43%) and that the government should put the British first (41%)
    The Our Britain group consists of older working class and retirees, living mainly in the Northern England and the Midlands, and makes up 24% of Britain. They overwhelmingly believe that immigration is a burden on society (88%), that being British means being born here (68%) and that government should put the British first (77%).

    Labour is currently winning 50% of the first group and 19% of the second group, and is now apparently writing both of them off. 50% of the electorate (Our Britain + Common Sense) gives their top priority as reducing net migration; the only group which apparently opposes the policy are the Democratic Socialists (8% of the population).

    No compromise with the electorate, comrades.
    The problem for Nick's idea is that many people use the 'well, its a strain on the public services' as a way of avoiding talking about their real complaint - which is they are living in a country they no longer recognize.
  • The prosecutors are lying?
  • Jobabob said:

    You are wasting your breath with some of the true believers on here.

    It is quiet bizarre how much support Trump commands on PB – many of the posters on here are so right wing they are falling off their flat earth.
    Trump is by no means the most right wing candidate. Cruz is far more right wing.

    Trump is just the rudest. Compared with Hillary and Hattie he is obviously very right wing but that is really a product of how Labour Libdems, Wet Tories and in the US the Democrats, had until the middle of this year appeared to have shifted the centre ground a long way to the left.

    None of us (I hope) want to go back to the days of No Blacks or Irish signs outside cafes.

    Where we principally disagree is that the left think this sort of thing should be prevented by authoritarian laws that abolish the right of freedom of association; wheras the right trust the people and think that other than by educating the people and setting a good example the state should butt out.

    Technology favours the right. No business that did that would last very long in the twitter age whether legal or not.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Why is The Daily politics attacking the Tory party when the labour conference is still on?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    As in, from Russian territory?
  • What will Seumas Milne make of this

    He'll probably ask why Ukrainian air traffic control let a passenger jet fly over a war zone where military planes had previously been shot down at high altitude.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited September 2016

    Mr. Dromedary, I've heard both used.

    Mr. X, I believe there's an annual charity thingummyjig which involves playing Desert Bus for a full day, or perhaps longer.

    Desert Bus for Hope - I'm a fan of the comedy troupe that began it, LoadingReadyRun. It goes for about 6.5 days (technically it's based on how much money is donated, but since the first couple of years that has been so much - on a rising scale so it doesn't literally go forever - that it always goes over days). Raises money for Child's Play. I believe a few other charity drives have done the same with it too.
  • MaxPB said:

    Facebook isn't exactly a mass employer of working class people either.
    The claim I was responding to was that there was an outflow of wealth from the richer country to the poorer country because businesses always located where labour and capital were cheapest. Looking at any actual trading economy this is obviously incorrect, I think.

    I think the claim that working class people get screwed by trading with poorer countries is also wrong, but it's not obviously wrong.
  • Blue_rog said:

    Why is The Daily politics attacking the Tory party when the labour conference is still on?

    The latter has become just to easy.
  • In momentous news, I've decided to delay getting XCOM 2, despite really liking the first game.

    Partly down to timing (I'm getting Rise of the Tomb Raider and there's only a week or two between releases), available time and money. It's crazy that videogames have a drought and then a flood. If XCOM 2 had come out in August I would've probably gotten it, but if I have two new games in October I'll get sod all work done.

    Mr. Max, I know it's not your business any more, but why don't some games (especially remasters or timed exclusives) come out in the summer drought?

    Maybe I should write a piece comparing this with books. There's not especially a good or bad time to release one because you can justify it any way you like. Summer = holiday reading. Winter = Christmas reading. New Year = spending Christmas vouchers, etc etc. [I know the two media are very different, but the varying approach to the calendar is of interest].

    And, whilst I'm procrastinating, Kingdom Asunder remains on for a December release, at the time of writing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    1) they are biased
    2) Ukranian's even more at fault
    3) something something probably America's fault

    In all fairness plenty on the right blame the EU for having the temerity to tempt Ukraine away - country's aren't allowed to be divided on whether to leave Russia's sphere of influence apparently.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MaxPB said:

    Facebook isn't exactly a mass employer of working class people either.
    And Facebook moves its money around to minimise tax payments. Countries with very low tax rates benefit somewhat, those with higher tax rates do not. The countries with higher tax rates are almost always those with higher social security costs - thus when they lose Facebook's income they have to cut down on social expenditure - again the richer countries (those with a higher standard of living) lose out.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    Trump is by no means the most right wing candidate. Cruz is far more right wing.

    Trump is just the rudest. Compared with Hillary and Hattie he is obviously very right wing but that is really a product of how Labour Libdems, Wet Tories and in the US the Democrats, had until the middle of this year appeared to have shifted the centre ground a long way to the left.

    None of us (I hope) want to go back to the days of No Blacks or Irish signs outside cafes.

    Where we principally disagree is that the left think this sort of thing should be prevented by authoritarian laws that abolish the right of freedom of association; wheras the right trust the people and think that other than by educating the people and setting a good example the state should butt out.

    Technology favours the right. No business that did that would last very long in the twitter age whether legal or not.
    that doesnt square with what trump says or is proposing. he is very much a 'no blacks, no mexicans' kind of guy.
  • kle4 said:

    1) they are biased
    2) Ukranian's even more at fault
    3) something something probably America's fault

    In all fairness plenty on the right blame the EU for having the temerity to tempt Ukraine away - country's aren't allowed to be divided on whether to leave Russia's sphere of influence apparently.
    Yes, there is some effwittery across the political spectrum when it comes to Ukraine.
  • Mr. kle4, they're the chaps. I watch CheckPoint, the gaming news show put up on Youtube.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    PlatoSaid said:

    :grin: when we go to a restaurant now, my wife always let me try what she's chosen.

    For me it's processed meat products- salami, pate, pies and the like. There's always additional alcohol as well
  • kle4 said:

    1) they are biased
    2) Ukranian's even more at fault
    3) something something probably America's fault

    In all fairness plenty on the right blame the EU for having the temerity to tempt Ukraine away - country's aren't allowed to be divided on whether to leave Russia's sphere of influence apparently.
    4) Zionist Conspiracy?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    In momentous news, I've decided to delay getting XCOM 2, despite really liking the first game.

    Partly down to timing (I'm getting Rise of the Tomb Raider and there's only a week or two between releases), available time and money. It's crazy that videogames have a drought and then a flood. If XCOM 2 had come out in August I would've probably gotten it, but if I have two new games in October I'll get sod all work done.

    Mr. Max, I know it's not your business any more, but why don't some games (especially remasters or timed exclusives) come out in the summer drought?

    Maybe I should write a piece comparing this with books. There's not especially a good or bad time to release one because you can justify it any way you like. Summer = holiday reading. Winter = Christmas reading. New Year = spending Christmas vouchers, etc etc. [I know the two media are very different, but the varying approach to the calendar is of interest].

    And, whilst I'm procrastinating, Kingdom Asunder remains on for a December release, at the time of writing.

    I've never been in the business, but in recent years at least I thought the summer months were essentially given over to Indy releases with steam summer sales and that sort of thing.

    I'm assuming there'll be expansions for XCOM2, so it might not be a bad idea to delay - and if you need to scratch that itch it's not like the first XCOM is not still great to play.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    That shows they've done their Kipper-dog-whistle homework.
    Well not on me as I've never voted UKIP and I can't see myself doing so anytime soon shall we say.

    However, Jezza's presumed (he hasn't spoken yet to be fair ) adherence to such a policy is in many ways noble in that he's sticking to his principles and asking the public to come to him on it. Now doubtless that gives his supporters a nice warm feeling, but I'd question, noble though it may be, is it exactly wise when we've just had a vote where so many of the people he needs to vote for him pretty clearly had the subject at the forefront of their thinking.

    Peeing down your leg in a cold winter's day gives a short warm feeling too, but few see it as wise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Mr. kle4, they're the chaps. I watch CheckPoint, the gaming news show put up on Youtube.

    I knew there was a reason I liked you.
This discussion has been closed.